Dell PCs with Intel inside are built for the moments you plan, and the ones you don't. For the time you forgot your charger at the gate. Passengers, we are now on our initial ascent. Or when you're bouncing between projects like a ping-pong ball. We build PCs with long-lasting battery life so you're not scrambling for a charger. And built in intelligence so you can stay focused on whatever you're doing. Dell Technologies, built for you. Dell.co.uk forward slash Dell PCs. When it comes to home improvement, even the most experienced DIYer has a limit. I'm not going to come in here with the blow torch and get it hot and solder and put the copper pipes to come. I'm not doing it. I call a very nice man to handle it. When to call the experts and when to do it yourself. That's This Week on Explain It to Me. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlev and I'm joined today by Aaron Perness. How are you? I'm good. No fancy intro today. We're just going with my name. Well, I'm asking to it. No. I'm sorry. Sub-Sacra extraordinaire voice of a generation. Thank you. The man, the myth, the legend. Aaron Perness. You feel better now? An honor. An honor, truly. I want to talk about politics, but are you watching Heated Rivalry? Or have you watched it? It's on my, like I've seen some like clips on Instagram that have popped up on my feed, but I like sexy ones or different ones. All of the above. There's actually not a lot that isn't sexy ones, but. Well, so for me, it's like I watch TV shows like years after they're actually released. So like right now I'm watching season one of White Lotus. Oh, okay. Yeah, we live in different worlds. Yeah. So Heated Rivalry will be like a 2027 project. Okay. So before the election, I'll be like, who do you think's going to win? Also have you seen Heated Rivalry? And then we'll see what happens. Okay. Anyway, I'm watching it. Oh, good. Okay. A family friendly show or no? No, the girls don't watch it, but I, watching it with Brian was interesting because he played football in college. And I'm like, is this what locker rooms are like? And then we talked a lot about shower setups in men's locker rooms. Based on what I understand in locker room I grew up in, that is kind of how locker rooms are like in the sense of like no shower. It's weird. Yeah. But like with a lot of heads, like, but this is like my best chat ever. We'll talk more about Heated Rivalry later. We got to talk about politics stuff. Big week. Trump was at Davos, made some waves. The Democrats are getting into their 2028 primary calendar fight. RFK Jr. is on national tour with his new dietary guidelines, which I don't know. I hate that I'm going to ask you what you think he's actually doing out there and if he is going to try to run for president in 2028 because I just can't take that. Also, JD Vance is in Minnesota. There's a lot going on. First to Davos. Trump went there pitching himself as the deal maker, left rattling markets and allies after reigniting trade war fears and threatening tariffs over Greenland. He suddenly announced a quote unquote framework for a future deal, then backed off. Other European leaders just came out and said that what he told us was true, wasn't actually true, which doesn't particularly shock me. Mark Carney was the big winner of the week. I'm getting ahead of myself here anyway. What did you make of the Trump spectacle in Davos? It kind of seemed like all one big grift in a way, a grift that actually is going to make a lot of people money because what Trump likes to do, if you look at the stock market, he says, tariffs, then the stock market falls, then people buy, then he says, no more tariffs. And then the stock market is now rising again and people are making money. People probably close to the White House are making a good amount of money right now. Then you have this piece, board of peace that the only people signed on to are some small countries or like MAGA allies. And by the way, a dictator in Belarus and most of Europe hasn't signed on to it. Then you look at what Jared Kushner wants to do in terms of rebuilding Gaza. They just look dystopian. We don't have buildings like that in the United States, but that's what he wants for Gaza to look like. It all kind of just seemed like one big kind of, I don't know, grift. But I will say the whole Greenland, Denmark situation, I think what happened was, and people can correct me if they think I'm wrong, is that's just an off ramp for Trump. I personally never thought we were going to invade Greenland. I thought that was a crazy thing to even suggest. I never thought that the United States would even take complete ownership of Greenland. Do I think that the United States should have more kind of military presence in and around Greenland and have some more control over the shipping routes? Of course, I mean, you don't want China or Russia doing that. He's not fully wrong in that respect, but that Denmark was already offering that. NATO was already saying you can do that. And so he's just getting what he already had in a way. Totally. And then repackaging it for us as this big victory. I do feel like a few barriers have kind of been breached or busted through by European leaders this week. I think the amount of Trumpian BS that they just called out to his face and on social media is different than it has been in the past. Macron knowing that it's Donald Trump, and he's probably going to tell everyone what you said in your text message, which he ended up posting. And it said, I have no idea what you're doing with Greenland and the content of his speech where he also talked about a new era of relationships with China. That's something Mark Carney goes to China just last week. And then Mark Carney's speech in general, which basically just said America has a superpower in the same way as over. The global order is done. And to some degree, we were silly for thinking that we would have it this way for so long. And I thought it was really powerful and sat the tone. I'm glad that he had such an early speaking spot and was able to get that kind of messaging out there. And I think that it also gave the European Union leaders, not that the Danish Prime Minister needed a lot more oomph to get her there, but then for her to be able to respond about this new quote unquote framework, which was basically the stuff that they've been offering to us forever, I think was rooted in how strong people like Carney and Macron had been in pushing back against the United States. Yeah. No, I completely agree with you. I do think that this is all part of the plan. I think 2026 will be defined as the year kind of the world order shifts dramatically. I don't think we've seen such a shift in terms of U.S. EU, U.S. NATO relations since in the post-World War II kind of world order. And so I think that this is kind of a recalibration of where things are heading. And I'm going to go out and a little and say it's not just going to be Canada. I think more countries will kind of move closer to China as the United States really alienates itself and kind of America first mantra. And ultimately, it'll be to the detriment of American businesses and American consumers as I mean China's GDP last year grew over 5%. It was one of their best years to date while the American GDP could have grown more, but for the tariffs. And if the Supreme Court overturns Trump's tariffs, then it's going to be even more chaos. So I think ultimately the world is dramatically changing. And I saw your interview with Heather Cox Richardson. She's been talking about this a lot is that people need to look at this not from like a day to day like, okay, Trump says this, Carney says that, but look at it from a very macro level. The dynamics between the United States and other nations have fundamentally changed and it will take a very long time to get back to where it once was if it ever does. It makes me think like if a Republican wins in 2028, I think things just carry on this way. Even if it's someone who we feel is quote unquote more sane, like let's say Marco Rubio is top of the ticket versus right now, I think the betting markets have it as JD Vance at the top of the ticket and Marco Rubio is the vice president. But like the Republican Party is done with the post-World War II order except Lindsey Graham. He's holding on. But besides that, you know, it's kind of washed. I'm curious what you think a Democrat will do because I mean, there are certain things that Trump has done like, you know, strengthening. It's interesting to think about it now that like he's a central cog in the idea that NATO could actually be torn apart, but he did strengthen NATO to a good degree. And I think it's important that people pay their fair share and things like that, but it'll be interesting to see how Dems react to it because I don't think the same old and this goes for every topic area, whether it's domestic or foreign affairs, you know, showing up and say, we're going to go back to the, you know, the norm. Right. Like everybody is looking for things to be shaken up. And I'm curious what you think a Democrat would do if they are coming in in 2028 and they're looking at the EU, they're looking at NATO and saying like, we want to be back with you. Well, I think you're going to see a lot of continuity even with the Democrat. I mean, you saw that with Biden even, right? Like the Abraham Accord, it's Biden continued them. Biden State Department continued to work almost got the Saudis and the Abraham Accords. So I think you're going to see this board of peace situation to the extent that it lasts through the end of Trump's term. I think if a Democrat takes over, you're going to still have this board of peace, whatever it looks like, this organization. You may have more countries join. You may have more of this kind of international collaborative effort. I don't know. But I do think that it's, I mean, when you look at what in the post-World War II order, what the world has looked like, the United Nations does not have the same kind of power behind it that it once did. It just doesn't. Or reputation. Or reputation. Most countries do not, that don't need the UN, don't really care for the UN. And so I don't think it's just going to be the United States. I think you're going to have other countries come out and say, you know what? We need something different. We need something better. And so that's why what I just hope that Democrats don't do is I hope they don't in 2028 just say everything Trump did over the past four years was bad. And we're just going to get rid of it because you can't just do that. You can't keep flip-flopping like this every four years when at the end of the day, we have to recognize that the world is shifting and whether or not you like how he's doing it, which is my problem, not necessarily what he's doing, but rather how he's doing it in certain respects. You have to understand that some of these things are kind of inevitable based on where we are in history. That's interesting because I wouldn't think that this level of fissure with our other Democratic Western allies was the direction that we had to be going in. I think that there is a world where we could be like it's us versus them and it's more traditional axes of evil, right? Where you're like, you know who Vladimir Putin is versus who Voldemort Zelensky is and you know who President Xi is and, you know, like, I thought that that, I thought that that could be sustained, but I'm also a bit of a Pollyanna about things. I mean, I would hope that they could be sustained, but after it's already been a year, right? Like three more years of this, you're going to have European... I wouldn't be surprised if you see over the next three years a significant rise in the right again in Europe. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Macron being replaced by a right-wing president. You have Maloney in Italy already pretty right. I wouldn't be surprised if... She has these incredible... I was much more afraid of her than what she has been in actuality. Yeah, her line about we'll get rid of the bases and also the McDonald's is here with good. Yeah, I mean, she's been interesting. And then I wouldn't be surprised if in the UK you have like the reform party really making inroads before Trump leaves. So Trump could very well leave at a time where Europe and the United States are aligned in this kind of right-wing respect. I don't know. I don't know what the future holds. Yeah, I wanted to... You brought up Jared Kushner's dystopian PowerPoint presentation, which included a plea if everyone could just chill out for 30 days so they could figure this out more. It's so unprof... like so unprofessional. It's crazy. And it's really crazy. Like just give up your speaking slot, frankly, if you are not ready to deal with the repercussions of the fact that you are proposing to turn Gaza into Palm Beach. Like people are going to have questions and they are going to have reactions to that, especially because there are millions of people that live there and like what is going to happen to them? And like how are they going to be able to afford to live in your condos? But do you think that they are going to be able to just continue to plow through with this level of grift? Because I think about that 60 Minutes episode with Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner a lot. And parts of it that were edited out that then showed up on social media but weren't in there where Whitcoff and Kushner are basically smiling and giggling at each other. Like how did we get this good fortune, right, that we're able to use the government as a way to line our pockets like this? So what are your thoughts for Gazelago and beyond? I mean, number one, I agree with you. It's kind of scary. Just even think about that. I mean, if you were here at this point, I would say it's not going to work. I mean, it won't. You could pump whatever money you want into Gaza today. It's not going to work if you don't have sign off from the people in Gaza. Or you ethnically completely cleanse them and say, you know, you can't live here anymore and you remove them. But where are you going to put them? Because Israel is not going to take them. Egypt is not going to take them. Jordan is not going to. No one's going to take the people of Gaza, the people of Palestine. So where are you going to put them? Or I guess the third option is some type of like interment light where you have them working on building your vision, which wouldn't put it. I wouldn't put it past them, the Trump administration to do that. So I don't. And then like they label it as like we're making, we're giving you jobs, right? Like I don't know what the future holds. I don't think it'll work out because ultimately a project that like this to this level that Kushner is pitching takes a very long time. I mean, this is like a 10, 20 year project. This is not a thing that happens overnight. And I wouldn't be surprised if things just fall. The ceasefire deal isn't really a ceasefire. So like let's get to like the end of the ceasefire deal before we start making the Riviera of the Middle East. That's a good point. And there are still lots of people dying in Gaza. And no one seems to pay attention to that anymore. I want to shift to the domestic side of things. Democrats are quietly making one of the most consequential decisions of the 2028 race. Who gets to go first with no incumbent president and a wide open field? A dozen states are lobbying to shape the primary calendar and with it the entire nomination fight. New Hampshire out there talking about how many independence they have in the state. The heavy white population acknowledged but growing black and Latino populations. Iowa would love to go first again, really emphasizing that they're the ones that found Barack Obama, right? Cattle bolted him on his way. Also Jimmy Carter, but I don't know. I don't think that's as big of a sell as Obama. South Carolina talking of course about their large black population. Also a lot of rural communities, big military communities. And then Nevada and New Mexico emphasizing their large Latino populations. Such a big swing category in 2024. What are your thoughts about what the calendar should look like? I don't know. Honestly, I've been thinking about this. I like Iowa first personally just because I like the caucus. They messed up so bad though. I feel like it's one of those that you really, like you have to prove yourself on such a next level that you can handle this. I mean, I was there freezing away, sitting on air at tap dancing for hours. Going back and forth. I mean, to me, it's either what you have three options. Number one, Iowa goes first because it's a caucus and because of the historical kind of connotation with Iowa going first. Number two, South Carolina goes first because black voters are a major part of the Democratic base and South Carolina has historically decided who will be the Democratic nominee. South Carolina goes first. Or number three, you take a big state and you make them go first. Throw in California, throw in Florida. Put one of these big states up first, which I would not be upset about, even especially a state like California. Because by the time California is up on the ballot, the nominees almost always already decided. Give me a big state, force them to spend a little money, force them to campaign and reach a whole different sect of people, unless try something different. I don't think New Hampshire should go first. I don't think Nevada should go first. Either have the tradition, go with South Carolina or go with a big state. That's where I'm at. It's a new tradition, but a good tradition or seemingly good. I don't know. Every time I say something about this, I aggravate a bunch of people who feel differently about it and people take it so personally. Oh, I mean, if you guys are watching and you take this personally, I'm sorry, but I don't really have much. I don't live in a state. I wish I lived in a state. Maybe I would take it more personally too if I did. I live in a district, but here we are. Yeah, I mean, I do live in a state and we are never, obviously, you're not going to have New York doing it. So we're always kind of by the sidelines of this. It does feel like it's going to be an interesting process to watch vis-a-vis Ken Martin and what's going on at the DNC and all of the infighting, I guess, and how different states are making their pitches. But I hadn't really thought about why don't we just have a California go first or something that's a wild card. Or make New York first. Like make New York first. Well, there you go. Finally, you're saying something that makes some sense. There you go. Four people to compete. Yeah. But imagine like every presidential candidate having to go in and get so Ron's endorsement because that's what you would have to get to a New York. Yeah. That would be a sight to see. Well, Kathy Hochul, I feel like she's just turning into a bit of a queenmaker. Well, yeah. She's like, well, I mean, you'd have to go to Kathy Hochul, certainly as much if not more than Mom Donnie because the whole state would vote. And there are some people who are a little bit less liberal who live outside of my little bubble here for sure. That's true. Outside of your very liberal community. Yeah. No, I live in a moderate hood, but yeah. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. That's H I M S dot com slash moderates hymns dot com slash moderates weight loss by hymns is not available in all 50 states. We'll go via the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk a s to get started and learn more, including important safety information. We'll go be clinical study information and restrictions. Visit hymns.com. Big news this week for all my Gordon Gekos, my Robin Hooters, my Claude Squad and Thropic, which is newly the most valuable AI company in the world, announced it would be going public. That news follows reporting that open AI plans to go public as soon as September. And that that news follows reporting that space X, which also considers itself an AI company, will be going public in maybe just a few weeks from now. Welcome to the era of the Omega IPO. We are about to see millionaires, billionaires and yes, probably even the world's first trillionaire created overnight. And yes, it's that guy. This is the chainsaw for bureaucracy. But all the tech bros who are going to make all the money, they need our money way more than we need their products. And we're going to remind you why on today explained from Vox. I'm Seth Matlin's my new show creator destroy reimagining marketing explores how every decision a company makes, not just the marketing ones, but the HR, IR pricing or design and planning ones. The ones most don't consider marketing at all contribute to either creating value or destroying it. Each week I sit down with CMOs, CEOs, founders, cultural thinkers, the people building, breaking and reimagining how businesses grow or don't for conversations about what creates value and what destroys it. It's a business show. It's a marketing show. Creator destroys the show that argues they've always been the same thing from the Vox media podcast network in the wisdom is coming. New episodes drop weekly on YouTube and your favorite podcast app. All right, welcome back. JD Vance out on the road. He's in Minnesota. He gave a big economic speech talking about all the major gains that folks have, he hopes, felt in their pockets since Trump became president talking about wage growth, GDP growth, etc. Also, I don't know if you saw the New York Times, Sienna poll came out today, which was like absolutely disastrous for Trump personally underwater on every single major issue, but not just like he's doing six points like did you see? No, they're getting the Anseltzer treatment. Yeah, he said he's going to sue the New York Times after that poll came out. It must just be exhausting living in his body or his mind. I don't think so because he could just really say any. I mean, think about it. I feel like it'd be so great. I just like to be that aggrieved all the time and that mad like to carry that around because I know how bad it feels when I'm angry about things. And then it's like if you're literally angry at every single person that exists out of your little circle and he's probably angry at his little circle all the time too. Well, it's either that or he just doesn't give a shit at all. And he's just like saying whatever comes to his head. But like to me, I feel like it's kind of freeing. Like you could just say whatever you want. You'll have zero consequences. No one's holding you in check. You can do whatever you want, whenever you want it. I don't know. You move the markets and you move it back. Anyway, JD Vance is also going to do a roundtable discussion about ICE enforcement in Minnesota. What do you make of his days activities? I think JD Vance is being sidelined. Kind of worse than what they did to Kamala. Because he's not in any of the important rooms. He wasn't there when we captured Maduro. He wasn't there in Davos. Traditionally, you'd have a VP in Davos. He wasn't there. He seems to be kind of just being trotted out in places the administration doesn't want to deal with. Because Minneapolis, for what it's worth, Trump is furious that everyone on TV is seeing little kids being taken by ICE officials. He is upset. He's not upset that it's happening. He's upset that we're seeing it. And so what does he do? He's sending out Vance to handle it. I don't think it's weird. I really feel as though he's kind of chosen his successor in its Rubio and it's not Vance. That's kind of how I felt the past few weeks. Interesting. I saw that JD Vance and Usha Vance are having their fourth child. Congratulations on that. But then I was thinking, oh, maybe he'll just go on paternity leave forever. If Trump isn't into him and he'll just... I do wonder if they get paternity leave in this White House. I think, I don't know. Caroline Levitt's definitely going to take some form of maternity leave. Yes. I think Kayleigh McEnany did that when she was press secretary at least for a couple months. I don't know about paternity leave. It's not very quote unquote masculine by their definition of masculinity. We'll see. I mean, it's not like JD's doing much anyway right now. There you go. He's already on paternity leave. Last thing, RFK Jr. saying that he's not running for president, but he just kicked off a national tour in a key swing state in a state capitol. To cheering crowds and MAGA hats. Officially, it's about the new dietary guidelines. Politically, looks a lot like a campaign rally. Do you think that he still has presidential ambitions? Yeah, but I think he knows that he's not going to win. I think that's... He's also old. Is he? 71 now, right? Yeah. Okay, but does that matter? I mean, Trump is... It should. Did you see that Rahm Emanuel is proposing that no one over 75 can be in government? It's just like you turned 75, you're out. I did see that, but also Rahm Emanuel like stopped trying to run for president, but that's besides the point. I mean, he's not going to stop. He's running for president. He's running for president. He's got a long while to go if that's your attitude. RFK, I don't think he's going to run for president. I think 2028 will be a very crowded field, and then you'll only have two people at top. It'll be like Marco at 30%, JD at 25%, and everyone else below 7%. And I think that's how it'll be the entire race, but I think you'll have like a bunch of candidates on the right who try to jump in. I don't think RFK does it because I just don't think he wants... I think he knows that he won't win. I don't think anyone will want a stomach RFK for four years, but who knows? No, I mean, I certainly don't, but it makes me wonder if he's going to do something strange as an independent, because I feel like he has no real claim to the Republican stratosphere, but as a spoiler, RFK Jr. works a lot better. Do you have any thoughts on the dietary guidelines changes? I mean, the only thing that sticks out for me, well, two things. One, I always say this, like he should have gotten a job at USDA and been nowhere near HHS secretary, and then that huge study about how safe it is for women to take Tylenol during pregnancy. You saw there was another new one, and like not a peep out of this administration about the fact that they went out there and lied to all of these millions of women who are scared and just spend those nine months freaking out about keeping this treasure safe inside of them. And it infuriates me that there will be no comment. I agree. I mean, I don't know anything about this food, new food thing that he rolled out. I kind of did some research into it. Low carb. Yeah, I mean, it's like OK. You know, it's like Akin's basically, yeah. I don't know what that is either. I was just kind of like, OK. Oh my God, you're so young, because you haven't like gained a pound or had to lose one? I feel like. And I'm currently on a diet trying to lose weight, but I'm also marathon training. So. That's different. Yeah. But I mean, that's not the same thing. I don't know about RFK Junior and this new pyramid scheme of his. A lot of topic really sailed quickly before we go. One thing we should calm down about and one thing that's making you rage. One thing that's making me rage is the fact that people aren't taking this giant ice storm seriously enough. That's coming to like the East Coast. Like and the fact that Ted Cruz left again to Laguna Beach. Again. I know. Again. Have you learned nothing? The three what is it in the Bible, the three horsemen or whatever the three signs that like the. Yeah. Of the apocalypse. Of the apocalypse. Ted Cruz leaving, check, Waffle House closing and Jim Cantori on the ground. So we'll see if the next two materialize. And then one thing that we should all calm down about is, oh, this is a good one. People really get on me for loving Domino's Pizza. Like I think it's better than most New York style pizza. So people need to calm down. I'm sorry. What? Yeah. I'm calm, but you're really wrong. Yeah. I mean, listen, everyone's entitled to their own opinion, even if it's wrong. No, I think that's how we ended up with Trump. Okay. Well, yeah. You started Domino's Pizza. When you were in New York, I sent you to all these great pizza places. You did. And you're telling me that you would have rather been a Domino's. Yeah, probably. I just had it last night. It was fantastic. Aaron Parnas' maybe last Friday on Raging Moderates. It was great to see you. Good to see you. Thanks for watching.
