Transfer Portal Deep Dive with Sam Khan

Welcome to the Audible presented by Trader Joe's. I'm Stuart Mandel, joined by my colleague Ralph Russo from The Athletic. Russo Felben is not with us for this episode. He is on assignment, as Ralph likes to say. So because of that, we're going to hold off doing the Big 12 buy, hold, sell recap that we've been doing for the other conferences. We'll do that later in the week. What we are going to do today is talk about some realignment news. North Dakota State is moving up to the Mountain West. We're going to have our colleague Sam Kahn on later this episode to talk all things Transfer Portal. He is the man when it comes to that. But first, let's address the elephant in the room. Ralph, for those who are watching this on YouTube, why are you dressed like a downhill skier in the Winter Olympics? Okay, so it was chilly. here in New York. It's been in the 20s, and we have no heat in our apartment today. I don't know why, but the heat went out during the Super Bowl yesterday. I don't think it was necessary because of the Super Bowl, but it's been super cold here in New York, and I do wonder if it's putting a strain on some of these old buildings like the one I live in. So the entire building has been without heat since Sunday night. We have been assured it will get fixed in the next few hours. It is I might be playing it up a little bit, but it is pretty cold. It is pretty cold. Like I'm guessing it is below 60 in my apartment. And the thing is, again, that might seem a little much for what I'm wearing with a hat and a hoodie on. But I will tell you, if you stand still for a long period of time in like 50 degree temperatures, that's cold. Like when you're outside, you're you're. Oh, I don't think anybody would dispute. That's cold for inside. And I'm actually kind of amazed you're still hanging in there instead of like finding a warmer location somewhere. But yeah, things like this always remind me like, you know, I had fun living in New York. I wouldn't go back because stuff like this just always seems to happen. I definitely do not embrace the cold. Like the one part of living in New York I don't love is the fact that it gets cold, but I'm here and what are you going to do? before the heat shut off did you watch the super bowl did had a super bowl party which is was good because it allowed me to be entertained during a game that wasn't necessarily all that entertaining you know if the jets aren't in it and they're never in it i'm happy to be the super bowl party host we my wife and i so we are always the host of our neighborhood party eat a lot drink a little have some fun uh and but yeah the game was a bit of a done usually by the fourth quarter everybody sort of clears out and I get to watch the fourth quarter. And a lot of times that's good because it's the most interesting part of the game, but it wasn't particularly interesting. I think everybody knew Seattle was the better team and they went out and played very much like the better team. But you know, you got a little taste of the Super Bowl lead up, right? Like media day and what do they call it? Like opening night or something along those lines. So you got a little taste of the Super Bowl and even wrote a story coming out of it. Yeah, the Super Bowl was in my backyard this year. And almost literally, the planes that do the flyover came right over my house. If I wasn't watching the Super Bowl at that moment and known what was going on, I would have thought we were under attack. So I was like, you know, the Athletic has people way more qualified than me to cover the Super Bowl here this week. Lots and lots of them, but they were nice enough to give me a credential, not for the game, because those are hard to come by. But the NFL will give a credential to pretty much anybody for the stuff during the week. So you're right. I was just mostly curious, but also wanted to see, you know, some of our bosses and colleagues who are in town. So I went to the media day opening night, and I also spent a day kind of checking out Radio Row, which was up in San Francisco. And it just served as a reminder of just how much bigger the NFL is than college football. Than everything, really. Yeah. Yeah, college football is the clear second most popular sport in our country. But I've been to a lot of college football media days, college football playoff, you know, national championship media days. And theirs is probably not an exaggeration. There's probably 10x as much media. Now, when I say media with air quotes, a lot of people who just go around doing those stunts, you know. Guillermo from the Jimmy Kimmel show was doing bits, but mostly people much less prominent than him. So it was not the right – it was not the best place to try to ask people about football, I would say. I did find Chris Partridge off to the side, though. He was an assistant on the 2023 Michigan national title team who got fired abruptly because he was – when the Conor Stallion stuff was all going on, he was accused of telling players what to say to the investigators. So he got fired and he landed on the Seahawks and just won a Super Bowl ring. But well after the fact, you know how long these cases take. So almost two years later, when they finally come out with that report, he was basically totally cleared of everything. Yeah, exonerated. So he got his reputation back. But, you know, he he he told me he couldn't get a college job, you know, after that, when that was still going on. So he kind of ended up in the NFL by accident, mostly because Mike McDonald became the head coach. They did not overlap at Michigan, but obviously they both worked for Jim Harbaugh. Jay Harbaugh's on the Seahawks staff. So pretty good landing spot for him. He's the linebackers coach for the Seahawks. Yeah, didn't get a national championship ring because of the way it ended at Michigan, but he got a Super Bowl ring. So there he was not he didn't come across me as bitter, but it definitely stings that he didn't get a ring. He coached, you know, two thirds of that season. Listen, I know there's a lot of Ohio State fans that don't want to hear anything about this, but you saw the way Mike McDonald's defense played against this year in the Super Bowl. and he wasn't a defensive coordinator on the national championship team. That was Jesse Minter, who, by the way, is also going to be an NFL head coach this year. But you also could see like that Michigan defense was incredibly well coached. And it does sort of speak to how well they like why Michigan had that great run. And again, I understand there's a whole bunch of Big Ten and Ohio State fans that don't want to hear anything about this. That's fine. believe what you want to believe. And I understand that, you know, there will always be a bit of an asterisk there, but that team, what, what very much separated that team was also some really high level coaching that you now see at the NFL level. By the way, the first touchdown, you know, went a long time until the first touchdown, um, was AJ Barner, who is the starting tight end on these, uh, on that Michigan team. So the football guy, the college in the college world, the college football gods blessed us with some february realignment news they really bless us blessed maybe maybe bless you and i because we get to talk about maybe not chris vanini our colleague who had to go chase who had to go run down that news on the weekend but which he did a great job of it's great for content yes for years as other fcs schools moved up to fbs right james madison sam houston delaware you name it missouri state missouri state actually go go even further back than that, right? People wondered, what about North Dakota State? The juggernaut of FCS. Why aren't they moving up? Seven national titles in 10 years, I believe, or a seven and 11, something along those lines. And I think for a long time, the answer was, we like being the big fish in the small pond. We like playing for national championships, but obviously the sport has changed a lot. There's a playoff now. So North Dakota State is joining the party. They are going to be in the Mountain West starting this season. Very quick turnaround. Just football. For now, just football. And also, we saw this with James Madison, football is not eligible for the postseason for the first two years because of the transition, right? What are you hearing about all this? Yeah, expect the Mountain West to do what the Sun Belt did, which is apply for a waiver that would allow JMU, oh, excuse me, North Dakota State to play in the postseason and be real. Also, expect that waiver to probably be denied because the rules are the rules. And if JMU got denied, I'm sure they'll probably deny North Dakota State. But I would expect North Dakota, the Mountain West to make a play to get them in. You know, what I find interesting, Stu, is, you know, hearing a little bit that, you know, North Dakota State revved it up a little bit. It wasn't necessarily like I don't know if I would frame it as they were pursued as much as I think they finally got to the point there where they assess the situation and thought, as you had said before, like, I think there was always that question of do we want to play for national championships at this level or do we just want to play for a bowl game at the other level when we had a 14 playoff? But I think now with the 12 team playoff, we just saw a couple of G5 teams get in. Now, that's probably not going to happen that often, but we see there's going to be space for G5 teams and there might be an expansion. It's a very different calibration, right? Very different calculus being done here. So I think that North Dakota State now finds itself again looking. I think there, you know, I think there was probably a little interest in the Pac-12. and but from what I've heard that you know the real interest became between North Dakota State and doing some things behind the scene with the Mountain West over the last month or so again things really picked up moved quickly and both sides decided this was going to be a good fit going forward Stu. And I think you mentioned real quickly the Pac-12 there I think it was a missed opportunity for that conference I don't fully know the the strategy there but this is This is when you look at kind of the programs that are still left in the Mountain West for the most part, like I think the most distinguished is UNLV. And they've really only been good now for three years after a long, long time of not being good. So, I mean, I expect North Dakota. North Dakota State has been doing this for so long. They have such a good culture. One coach after another keeps it going. I think they will be to the new Mountain West, what Boise State was to the old Mountain West. And if that's the case, they will put themselves in at least in contention for that for that G now G6 playoff spot. So I find it very questionable that if they were really up for it. And by the way, North Dakota State's buying their way into this league. So like not only do you get the school, you get a bunch of money that the Paxwell wouldn't be interested because you're they made such a I think it's been kind of a letdown, frankly. compared to when Oregon State and Washington State first made that decision to keep the league together and rebuild it, and then initially made a big splash by getting Boise State and some of those schools. But in the end, I don't know that it's all that distinguishable from the Mountain West. I think the TV money turned out to be fairly similar, and you missed a chance to have North Dakota State and Boise State in the same conference. So I'm going to push back a little bit on you, though I'm going to I'm going to hesitate by saying by setting it up this way. I don't know if I know every bit of information here as we're still gathering motivations for making this move. I do get a feeling that. North Dakota State found it was a better fit in the Mountain West as opposed to being in the Pac-12. So it may have evolved from that level Not that the Pac missed an opportunity And listen I sure the Pac would have swooped in Hey we give you a better deal So I not saying that the PAC couldn have possibly shown more motivation and been motivated to do that But the reason why I think North Dakota State may have preferred the Mountain West and then the Mountain West also preferring North Dakota State is it does fall in line with the way the trend has been set over the last year or so in this G5, G6 realignment. And we saw it with the AAC schools that were being courted by the Pac-12. I think schools now are looking at, hey, I don't necessarily want to go in. We don't necessarily want to create a G6 Super League. I want to go into a league where I can be the big dog. I don't want to have to deal with Boise State and Oregon State and Washington state, which have a little bit more money, by the way, than I have in my coffers, right? So if I go in and I'm not getting a revenue share piece from the PAC 12, that might put me behind. Now, all of a sudden I might not be able to compete at the level I've been used to competing at. If I'm North Dakota state, I think North Dakota state looks at the mountain West sees opportunity to, to walk into that league toward the top of the league where maybe it would have been a little tougher in the Pac-12. So that makes North Dakota State and the Mountain West a better marriage. Again, that's a little bit speculative on my part, but it also does fall in line with what realignment has become over the last year or so with these G6 conferences. It's interesting timing because as we found out, I think some of the G6 leagues themselves found out recently, it's no longer going to be that you have to be a conference champion to get that birth. It's highest ranked G6 team. And so, I mean, I could see it one of two ways, right? If you go and you dominate that league and you're 12-0, just by matter of attrition, you might be the highest ranked team. But I could also see, like, don't you want to play a good schedule? Because those Mountain West schedules are going to be pretty terrible. And, you know, I guess it puts the onus on them to get a couple good non-conference games a year, right? Which, by the way, they have a history of beating Kansas State and teams like that. So, otherwise, I have to— You might be being a little harsh on the Mountain West there. I'm not sure the difference between Mountain West and— We're not going to go down a rabbit hole here, but I have a feeling the difference between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 might not be as substantial as you think going forward. Not so much that as, well, first of all, if they had joined the Pac-12, that league would be considerably strong. But no, more than I think they're going to be looking up to the American. I think the American will continue to be a half, if not a full step above those two leagues. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we will be joined by Sam Kahn. All right. We are pleased to be joined by the Athletics Resident Transfer Portal expert. Sam Kahn. He had his top 25 portal classes on the athletic last week. And we definitely want to get into a couple of those, Sam. But this was our first portal cycle of the rev share era. And all indications are, and I was certainly involved in some of the reporting around the quarterbacks, is the money only went up, not down from previous transfer cycles. Take us like LSU, right? Big splash, number one class. Obviously, these numbers are not public. You just kind of have to go by what you know about the market. How much do you think LSU spent on that class? Ooh, how many did, let me see. They had 39 scholarship players they added. That's a lot. Including guys like Seton and Leavitt, who are probably some of the most expensive in the whole class. Yeah, I'll give you a reference. Last year, Texas Tech with 22 transfers spent more than $12 million on its portal class. With 39 and three high-level players, like Levitt had to have been in the $4 to $6 million range. Jordan Seaton probably cleared two to three million pretty easily. So just with those two, you're getting close to six to six to nine, basically. That's just with those two players. So with the other 37, I mean, I think it's pretty, I think, I think it'd be safe to say that they easily cleared 15 million on this class. could could could they could it have gone closer to 20 potentially yeah i i don't i don't i don't think it's out of the realm of possibility but you you do have to be aware that toward the bottom of this class you do have and a lot of the there it is top heavy with your the three studs that they got but there's also a lot of guys who are just rearranging deck chairs so to speak so um but Yeah, I would say conservatively at least cleared 15 would be my guess. Very well could have been closer to 20, which by, for reference, for most programs, that was their roster budget last year. Like for most powerful programs who were competitive or powerful programs who were competing in the playoff, 20 to 25 million was a good range for the entire roster budget. Texas Tech, for instance, had a $25 million roster last year. So if LSU spent between 15 and 20 on the portal class, that's a heavy, heavy bag. So then the logical follow up to that is, how are they doing this? Because as we know, the whole promise of the house settlement and NIL go was to get rid of the third party promises. And if, you know, I think that the kind of the general number that's gone around about how much schools were devoting to football from their actual rev share was about 14 mil. So if we're thinking this is a $40 million roster, how are they doing the other 20 something million when we all know they're probably not getting every deal above $600 approved? yeah that's the question is is what happens with the third party nil deals are are they getting promised because that's the the part of this that is tricky is that the that if it is promised and so you know this as well as i do i think if it's promised it is supposed to count against the cap is supposed to count towards your ref your cap anything that is promised whether it's whether it's ref share or not, it's supposed to count against the cap. If it is third party, like true third party where there's no promise, so to speak, and it is organically evolves from a third party NIL, then you can get it approved through the CSE Clearinghouse. But either way, I mean, they're all subject to approval. But the question is, and this is not LSU specific, but this goes to everybody is a is everybody reporting deals uh i would think it's probably safe to say that not every school out there is and b uh how are they managing the cap like how are you being able to do this and yes it is going up a little bit supposedly this year but i think it's only what four percent is the number so it's not going to go up very very much we're still going to be in that low 20 million dollar range and again 75 of that is football so you're looking you know probably for most powerful programs, 15 million-ish. So it's really complicated and it's really very much done in the shadows. It's kind of hard to understand where it's coming from, how it's being done. And obviously from CSC, we get this aggregate data that says what's happening at large, but we don't really know school by school how they're doing this. Yeah, clearly there's some needle threading going on here and that's probably being generous with the term. of how things are getting through, how things are being categorized, what's a promise, what's a guarantee, what is just something that we can put in a contract that doesn't quite go up to the threshold of promise or guarantee, but nonetheless still makes you feel assured that you're going to get paid at a certain point. And I think it's a lot of trial and error going on right there. So you mentioned this idea of, right, like even though they have this enormous portal class LSU, to the back end of it, you're just kind of filling out depth, right? And you're replacing players that maybe you didn't necessarily want to keep, but you have to bring in another body, right, who might not be even a starter. I want to talk about something along those lines for a second, because I hear from a lot of coaches that, you know, I feel like I'm just trading my guy out for another guy who I would have been happy keeping, but wasn't necessarily broken heart, broken hearted that he left. And now I got a player who's about the same. So I guess as best you can, Sam, what's the depth level of this class? And if you really are leaning into the portal to build a high quality team, is that possible or how? Well, first, let's start with the fact that it's expensive. When it comes to building a roster, it is always cheaper to retain your own guys than it is to get a same caliber of player out of the portal. The other part of it is, yes, can you upgrade the talent? Yes, but if you don't, if you're essentially trading the same amount of talent, then what are you giving up in terms of development, system continuity, familiarity with your program and how it's run? I think that counts for something. I think that still matters. I think in Kurt Sagnetti in Indiana would probably be good evidence of that. So I think that that part factors in as well. As for LSU's class, it is deep. The one thing that I was impressed with is that it is not just a top-heavy class. Yes, there is a degree of, hey, we have to fill out spots at the roster at some point. But there's also a lot of guys that are either starter caliber guys that came over or that were, for instance, all conference at the G5 level at their specific conferences that were three-year starters. Ty Benefield, the safety from Boise State, is a really good example. He's a three-year starter at Boise State, first team all Mountain West. You plug him in in the secondary, he probably is going to do pretty well. There's a lot of that level of player in this. Some former Ole Miss guys that Lane Kiffin has a lot of familiarity with. That helps as well. But yeah, it costs a lot. It's not easy to put all this together, but we have seen teams do it. We have seen teams go heavy in the portal one year and turn a team's fortunes around in a hurry. And if you are Lane Kiffin, who I think did a really good job of finding what I would call fits for what he does offensively, I think the potential here is really high for LSU in 2026 to make a lot of noise, you know, not only in the season, but potentially in the postseason. um as you talk to personnel folks um how are they doing in terms of the translation of this type of player equals this type of money right i think that's been a little not maybe a little bit of a struggle over the last couple of years to sort of do the taking the nfl model hey like your quarterback is worth this much of your salary cap and again like we're not really dealing with a real salary cap here. So that throws things off immediately. But I'm just wondering the calibration of like, this level of player is worth X, this level of player is worth Y. And if we're actually settling into a rational market to a certain degree, it's hard when you don't know how much these guys are actually making. Right yeah that the struggle for every personnel staffer is in the NFL you have a database or you have access and everybody knows what everybody makes And I had this conversation with Pat Stewart the general manager in Nebraska who spent 17 years in the NFL many of them with the New England Patriots and some of the Eagles as well He said when in the NFL, what you're arguing is essentially the comparison of the player. So this player compares to this player and thus he falls in this line in the hierarchy of salaries. Someone who the best player is at that position or the most recent guy to get a contract sets the market at the top and then everybody else falls in line and is slotted. And the college football doesn't work like that. In college football, multiple guys are trying to set the market. They're at the top. And so whether they are whether they are the best player or not, they're trying to break the bank, so to speak, and set the market. And so, and also because that information is not widely available, nobody is out there advertising, well, except for maybe Texas Tech, nobody's out there advertising what they're paying their roster or what they're paying their players. And so you're very much guessing what the market is at a position. And then it comes down to personnel, staffers, head coaches, general managers say, okay, this is what we have to work with. This is how we're going to slot players. And this is what we value a starting left tackle. This is what we value a starting cornerback. This is what we need for a starting three tech on the D line. Then you go evaluate the players that match those and then try to build your roster that way. But it's not a lot of teams do use the NFL model. They have taken the OK, give me the this percentage goes to the quarterback. This percentage goes to the tackles. This percentage goes to addressers. A lot of teams start with that, but then you tweak it to your program, your coach, what schemes you run and what positions you may value more. There may be some programs that value a tight end more in their offense. So thus, they're going to pay them more than a program that does not. The running backs, I would say, in the college football are probably more valued in the college level and are willing to pay more of a premium for than in the NFL because you're not worried about guys getting past 30 as you are in the NFL and falling off because you're getting guys in your prime. And also there's 136 FBS schools. Do you, we think that there's 272 quality starting running backs out there? There's probably not. And so you have to pay a premium to get a better running back, so to speak. Would somebody and I'll let you go here, Stu, but what somebody had told me early on in this process and talking to him was like, listen, like, yes, we are we are generally using NFL model, but we also have to sort of take into account athleticism playmaking ability. Right. Like I want a playmaker. I want a difference making athlete. And it doesn't really necessarily it doesn't always matter what the position is. I need that guy. I just if I have a guy who I think is a difference maker at almost any position, though, obviously, the positions where the ball is in the hand, like a running back becomes a little more valuable. I think that speaks to what you're talking about. I think you use the phrase, Ralph, rational market. I don't think I don't think college is ever going to be a rational market, because when you think about the NFL, like they're generally pretty disciplined. like to Sam's point, like this is how much this position is worth. And also they have to balance the long-term, right? Like where should we sign this guy for two years, five years, six years? So I think what we're seeing in college, right, is nobody's planning past next year. They're building next year's roster. And we also have to factor in desperation, right? So whoever the worst team is in the NFL is not going to go on a wild spending. First, they have a salary cap, right? That's the first thing, right? They have a salary cap. College baby has one now. We don't know. You know, Lane Kiffin gets to LSU and the boosters are all fired up. Go spend whatever you want, you know, overspend. We saw this with Tennessee when Josh Heupel first got there and they gave Nico that crazy contract. Like they just want to make a splash. They want to be relevant. And so Sam, I would assume you hear a lot of stories of, I can't believe they paid that much for that guy. Right. Like that's, that's insane. They spent that on that guy. Yeah, that was a, with Texas tech last year, there was a lot of that. And I would say by and large, it felt like it was really worth it for them. They won the big 12 for the first time they made the playoff. Ultimately it's what do you need and what does it take to get the player to So Ralph's point, difference makers, guys who are going to change a position room or a side of the ball or a program are always going to command more. It's very much the premium players, the premium positions are going to be cost the most. But there is a degree of overpaying because if you stink in college football, there's no number one draft pick waiting on the other side like there is in the NFL. In the NFL, at least you can say, well, we're going to have draft at the top of each round and we have all these draft picks to help rebuild our team. It doesn't work like that in college football. If you stink, it's going to hurt your recruiting. It's going to hurt your ability to get transfers and it's going to hurt your donations, your boosters, the buzz, all that stuff. So the pressure and we could even attribute this to even pre-NILR to the facilities boom, to the arms race that we had for umpteen years when we weren't paying players. and I've talked to athletic directors about this they cannot help themselves because of the pressure there is from their own fan base and their own boosters and the ones who wield enough power or enough money in their checkbooks to be able to have some say over this if they want to get it done they're going to do what it takes to get it done and it leads to guys being overpaid in the market so to speak. I want to hit you with one more here because what you suggested is you're right in the NFL there are literally teams that are in rebuilding mode, right? They, they understand, Hey, listen, it's going to take a couple of years. It's the NFL. You never know. Maybe, maybe it ramps up, but like as, as a fan of one team, that's been rebuilding for 15 years, like you understand that like with the jets, like, okay, we got all these capital and like, we know we're going to be bad this year. And we're probably going to be bad five years from now, but like the promise is there to rebuild. That is a little different. However, I'm wondering if I can think of one school is Florida state rebuilding. Are they tanking this? Like tanking is a harsh word. I don't mean that's overstated, but are they, they feel like the Florida state feels like it is, Hey man, maybe we can save some of this money and you know, for next year, cause you can back, back load some money and move it over to the to the following year so i'm wondering like is florida state are you sure it's an intentional strategy you don't know that's what i'm wondering how much it is guys just don't want to play there i'm wondering sam i don't know how much you've heard like talked about how much you've talked to people about just that program but boy it's an interesting deal down there and you do find yourself wondering if maybe them or some other folks are looking at this season and going like maybe this isn't the year to spend a ton of money. Yeah. And I think it's not just exclusive to them. I think there are some coaches and general managers who are doing the mental math of, should we spend this money this year when we know what the ceiling is and the ceiling isn't very high and instead reinvested in our roster to keep some players, which Florida state did by the way, like they lost a lot of guys to the portal, but they also were able to retain some guys that had gotten in that were important to them. And so So there's some of that. And I also do think from an administrative standpoint, there does come a point where it's like, do you keep throwing money, bad money after bad money? And they have lived and died by the portal for so long in the Mike Norvell era. And I think you see the two ends of the spectrum. You see what it can look like when it goes really well, and you can see what it looks like when it goes really bad. And I think that's why programs, by and large, don't want to live in that world year in and year out, and they still want to build the recruiting. But on the other hand, we're now starting to see the bluest of the blue bloods are starting to sacrifice some of their young, talented depth because they're now saying, well, how much money are we putting in recruiting classes that guys take two years to see the field? And then they end up leaving anyway. And how much money are we putting that is not on the field, that is sitting on the sideline developing because they're freshmen, redshirt freshmen. And can we move something? I think you saw Texas. I think you saw Ohio State take that type of strategy where it was like, hey, some of our good young players that we like a lot, maybe instead of giving them huge raises, maybe we go get a portal impact player that can help us this year as opposed to waiting on that young player to develop his position. All right, we're going to take a quick break. And once we do, we are going to get into some of the more interesting teams in this year's portal class. All right, Sam, we already talked quite a bit about LSU, the number one class, the number two class and your portal rankings is Indiana, the reigning national champs. And I, I can't imagine they would have been anywhere close to that prior to, to Kurt Signetti. Is this a case of kind of success breeds success? You know, they won a national championship. Now guys want to go play there. Or are we starting to maybe, I mean, I would just ask you in general, like, are you starting to reassess the value you place on guys now that Signetti has shown it's not just about signing the number one, this and the number two, that, right? It's fit and it's experience. 100%. I mean, when I did the top 25 portal classes, I really put emphasis on production over potential. So if you give me a guy who's a two or three year starter and maybe wasn't a five star recruit coming out of high school compared to the guy who maybe is a true sophomore who was a five star recruit at high school, but maybe doesn't have the production. I'm going to value the guy who has produced at his level and that has been a proven starter that has real reps, because I think Indiana showed what that means and how you can build a team that way. And it's not just Indiana. Every general manager or personnel staffer you talk to will say, we value production over potential. It may not always bear out in how the class plays out. But in a lot of cases, that is what you're paying for in the portal. You're paying for experience. Because if you're going to go get a highly talented guy who's just got a lot of potential, why not just go get him out of the high school recruiting ranks when you can get him a lot cheaper? So with Indiana I do think it's a little bit of success breed success Because a few years ago When Signetti got there They were bringing a lot of guys from JMU And a lot of guys from the group of five Then last year you start to see them mix in Some power four Transfers with group of five Now they are going to pick some big boys Like they went and got Josh Hoover from TCU Which was a splash pickup They got Nick Marsh from Michigan State Which was coveted by just about any receiver needy team out there. That was a splash pickup. They've got a lot of proven power for starters. So what I've seen over the last few years is they have leveled up in the caliber of transfer that they are able to get now that they have shown what they can do. And of course, being national championships doesn't hurt either. Yeah. And just to emphasize that, right, when you're in your rankings and Sam's rankings, it's listen, there's going to be a little vibes here, right? It's not, It's not an ultimately just a formula, but I think Sam also tried to weigh and give good numbers. In fact, of here's production going out, snaps going out, snaps coming in, which I thought was super helpful, which also balances a little bit of just, oh, it's just a big class. So it highly rated Right Or it a smaller class So it not so highly rated I thought you did a nice job of sort of balancing the quantity and quality aspect of this But listen it still going to be a little bit of a crapshoot right Because even when you talk about production the first guy that comes to my mind is like Makai Hughes, right? Everybody thought that was a super productive player who goes to Oregon and then falls off the face of the earth, which speaks to the variability and uncertainty of this, right? You never know how that word again, how that player is going to quote unquote fit. in a new culture and when there's more demands being played or different demands being placed on him which leads to my question about sort of this idea of I want guys I know will fit my culture so I'm just going to take my old players right and you know Penn State looks a lot like Iowa State with its new coach and about 22 Iowa State players I believe it is and I think there's a lot of Penn state fans who have a certain level of like, oh, this is good. We got a lot of good players, but also some like, man, that's a big 12 team. Is that big 12 team going to be able to win the big 10? So I just, and this is just your assessment of how do you think that balances out the, they know Matt Campbell's system. So they are good fits in within that system, but is it talented enough to compete against Ohio state and Oregon and Indiana? Yeah, that's, that's the question that's hard to answer, but I will say that I do favor the coaches and the programs that are able to bring guys along, especially if they're proven guys. Rocco Beck is a proven commodity. Jeremiah Cooper is a proven commodity. Marcus Neal, go on down the list. These are guys who are all conference caliber guys that are really good players. And I do think when you started to see this, I think it was Western Kentucky many, many years ago when they took Bailey Zappi and Zach Kittley and a bunch of guys from HBU, which is now HCU, and they turned it into a success at Western Kentucky. You started to see programs emulate that. Eric Morris has done it at Oklahoma State, bringing guys from North Texas with them. And that was one thing that you saw in this portal cycle. James Franklin did it with his former Penn State guys at Virginia Tech. Matt Campbell from Iowa State to Penn State. As I mentioned, Eric Morris, a lot of other guys who have done this. But to answer your question, we don't know whether or not it's good enough. I think we have a perception of like, oh, well, that's a big 12 team. Maybe they can't compete. I don't know that I necessarily buy into that. I think good players are good players. And is there a certain level that maybe there's a ceiling there that you maybe can't hit potentially? But we're not asking. Well, let me rephrase that. I guess you are asking Penn State to win a national championship. And are you going to win a national championship with this roster that's built largely on Iowa State? I'm not going to bet on that. I don't think that's the case. but the Penn state is a unique case because this is not a program that fired a coach that was rebuilding the program. This is a program that fired his coach because it couldn't win at the highest level. And I don't know, I don't even know if you could say hiring Matt Campbell does that. So all to back to your original point about fit also is that I do think the thing that's impossible to quantify in these rankings and trying to assess a portal class is fit because you're not there every day and you don't understand, and we don't understand the schemes the way the coaches do. So it is hard to say, do these guys fit, But for programs like Penn State or Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State who brought a large portion of guys, you can say, well, that fit is proven because it has worked there. There's a lot of the same coaches, coordinators, staffers there. The culture is going to be the same. Then it's just a matter of, OK, does that translate to more wins in the Big Ten? Who knows? It's anybody's guess. I would have I would have to say I am bullish, though, on Penn State. I don't think they're going to be a national championship team, but I do think they will be a good team under Matt Campbell with the core that they brought. And before I let you run in here, Stu, right, because it's not just can they win a national championship next year? It's going back to what we were talking about before. Can this season bridge the gap while they build up more in recruiting? Because you can't bottom out, right? You need to have these like, you know, if all of a sudden you go five and seven in your first year, man, like now it's panic at Penn State. So they can't really have that. so yeah it might not be good enough to go 11 and 2 and make the playoff but if it's good enough to get into that 8 till to 10 win range to 10-ish win range that gives you a fighting a fighting chance and the other thing too it's not just cultural fit as you said it's scheme fit and that's the thing that's really hard for us to assess until unless a coach is going to just tell you like sit down at the whiteboard and show this is how this guy fits I have noticed quite a bit of snobbery about the Iowa State thing, partially from Penn State fans, but probably more others. Like, oh, you're turning Penn State into the, okay, they're a Big 12 team, not a Mac team, a Big 12 team, a Big 12 team that won 11 games two years ago with a lot of these same guys, right? And were really good last year before they got a bunch of guys hurt, right? I mean, they could have won the Big 12. The whole secondary got hurt. But also like, who's under the delusion that you're going to contend for a national championship in year one of a you're just trying to field a team like when there's a massive coaching change like this you just need bodies you know you're just trying to get through and so bridge bridge year is a good is a good term for it right i would say this let me let me throw you in this real quick stu let me cut you off on that the other thing is we just watch a guy win a national championship with a bunch of former guys from JMU. So let's not, let's not snub our nose at Iowa state in the big 12, because that's what I'm saying from the Sunbelt and the FCS, some of the best players on that team were from JMU. I think in part, cause the Penn state search was so, what's the word? Dysfunctional. Janky. Yeah. There's some people who are like, and the best they could do is Matt Campbell. I mean, it's pretty good. They ended up with a really good coach. And you know, I think maybe if you're not aware of the history of Iowa State, you might just look up his record on Wikipedia and, hey, what's so special about this? But I know this, he has more top 10 wins there than James Franklin had at Penn State. So, you know, whether you, yeah, I mean, the point is like, if he goes nine and three in his first year, success, right? Like we're not gonna do, you know, you're not gonna turn into Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana overnight. So, all right, end of my Penn State rant. Real quick, we are seeing at least one team that is trying to field a completely new team the next year, and that's Oklahoma State. You have Oklahoma State number seven in your rankings. Scholarship players added 53. Scholarship players lost 63. It's very Dion first year at Colorado esque. But Eric Morris, you know, he brought a bunch of guys with him from North Texas. North Texas won a bunch of games last year. Is this, are we seeing, when we talk about Iowa state to Penn state, is this, let's take one of the best teams in the American, plop it down in Stillwater where they were terrible the last couple of years and see what we can do. I really liked this one because first of all, Oklahoma State's roster was really bad last year. I talked to guys around the conference who said, this is one of the worst rosters in the power of four. Anybody who watched them play Tulsa, the game right before Mike Gundy got fired, if you'd have taken the uniforms off, I'm not sure you would be able to NFI which team was in the Big 12, which team was in the American. That's how bad the talent level got there. And so now you're injecting, again, guys who fit with a scheme and culture, Morris was able to bring a large portion of his coaching staff with him, including defense coordinator Skylar Cassidy. Morris will call the plays as he did at North Texas. Drew Messamaker, one of the best quarterbacks, regardless of level. He was sought after by multiple programs. Caleb Hawkins was sought after by SEC programs, a running back. Wyatt Young was getting SEC attention to the receiver. This is a team with a real talent injection. I'm not saying they're going to go win the big 12, but at minimum, I think Oklahoma state is a bowl team next year, which for going one and 11, you go six and six, seven and five. That's a really good first step in the right direction for Eric Morris. And that was my thing is before when, when, when it became clear that North Texas was on this run and Eric Morris was going to get a job where there was Oklahoma state or Arkansas or Baylor, which obviously didn't end up making a move. My thing was if you get Eric Morris, Skylar Cassidy, Drew Messemaker, Caleb Hawkins you can flip a team in an instant and I think that's what's going to happen in Stillwater I think they're going to get a lot better in a hurry then the question is what is the ceiling on them I don't know what that is but I think at the minimum they're a bowl team next year I'm going to give you one more here and it's give me a team in the back half of your rankings and please go to theathletic.com read Sam Khan's great portal ranking, plus not to mention Sam does a great job covering all things portal along with Manny Navarro and Antonio Morales and our great teammates, but Sam's portal rankings are great, so go read that. We're not going to hit on every team here, but give me one from the back half of your rankings that isn't a obvious one or isn't a blue blood that you think did good work considering maybe they're coming off a mediocre year or a bad year. Yeah, there's a few. I think UCLA was the team for me. The new coach, Bob Chesney, they were able to keep Nico, which I thought was important for all the conjecture around him this year. I thought there were real flashes of potential. So being able to retain him was good. And that's another thing than these rankings. I also tried to factor in if you were able to retain key guys and be able to keep them out of the portal, I counted that as a win for you. They brought a lot of really good players from JMU, but they also went and got some quality power for players from other programs. I, I, I like him as a coach fit there. I like him as a program fit. I think what they did in the portal overall was pretty solid. I like some of the additions they had. And there's really nowhere to go but up for that program, you know, from where, from where they were. So I like what they did. I like what Wisconsin did. I thought getting Colton Joseph is a, is a really big, really big addition, but also a scheme fit for what Jeff Grimes does. in terms of doing a lot of heavy play action, passing, wide zone running, able to run the quarterback. When Grimes was at Baylor in 2021, he had Gary Bohannon, who was a really good dual threat. I think Colton Joseph is a little bit, maybe not as big of an arm, but a little bit better an athlete than Gary Bohannon was. So I think there's some real potential there with what Wisconsin had. And I think Houston did a good job as well. They had a really good season, but I think Willie Fritz and his staff they did a really good job of finding good fits. Like they found guys not super expensive guys that fit what they do. And I kind of have Houston as like a dark horse, big 12 championship team. I don't know if they'll win the conference, but boy wouldn't shock me if they, if they got in the big 12 title game. I agree. By the way, Gary Bohannon, former member of mine and Sam's all geezer team. I think he was in college for seven years, if I'm not mistaken. well Sam thanks so much for the all the intel again read all his great coverage of the everything transfer portal related at the Athletic we will be back later this week to do a little big 12 recap and look ahead and by the way very sorry to any Georgia Tech fans out there somehow they got left out of the ACC edition my bad guys so we will start it out with them on the next episode. And of course, we will need some Big 12 related emails. So send your questions to theautopodatgmail.com. We'll see you next time.