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The times you're deep in your flow and can't be interrupted by an auto update. That's why we build tech that adapts to you. Built with a long-lasting battery so you're not scrambling for an outlet and built in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule not in the middle of it. Find technology built for the way you work at dell.co.uk forward slash Dell PCs. Built for you. Welcome, Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlev. How are you, Jess? I'm really good. How are you? I'm good. My home away from home, I'm at the Beverly Hills Hotel in a beautiful morning just having returned from Coachella where I didn't go to Coachella. I just hang out at a beautiful home and went to the after parties which was the perfect way to experience Coachella for me. What did you do this weekend? Well, we had a big birthday in the house this weekend. Nice. Yeah. So my younger daughter, Teddy, turned two. We had a family and a few friends party, but two-year-olds don't really have any friends. They just have people we force on them. But a lot of birthday cake, a lot of Elmo action. So just like your weekend. Very similar. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. It sounds very similar. Yeah, I get it. No, a lot of... I can't make the connections there. Anyways. I'm glad you had a good time, even though you didn't go see Justin Bieber, which I think was a loss. Yeah, I think one of my nicest attributes is I know absolutely nothing about Justin Bieber. Anyways, if you haven't already, if you... God knows you don't want to miss banter like this. If you haven't already, make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all news politics. All right, let's bust into it. What was supposed to be a fragile de-escalation is quickly unraveling. U.S. Iran talks in Pakistan have ended without a deal and now President Trump is escalating by blockading the straight of Hormuz. At the same time, there's a political shock in Europe. Hungary's longtime nationalist leader, Viktor Orban, has been voted out after 16 years in power, a major blow to the global right-wing movement that's been closely aligned with Trump. So you've still got tensions in the Middle East and a Trump ally losing power at the same time. And it comes as J.D. Vance is now the least popular vice president on record at this point in his term. Let's watch Vance react after failing to secure a ceasefire and his efforts to help Viktor Orban hold on to power come up short. We've had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians. That's the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America. So we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement. We've made very clear what our red lines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on, and what things we're not willing to accommodate them on. And we've made that as clear as we possibly could. And they have chosen not to accept our terms. Just thoughts. I mean, J.D. Vance just keeps losing. And this was a huge opportunity for him. Did I think that they were going to come out of this with like a sign sealed and delivered deal? Absolutely not. Right. That was impossible. The Iranians didn't even have the people, the final people in the room who I imagine is Ayatollah Jr. able to sign off on this. And I think Vance called Trump about six times throughout the course of the day's negotiations. But what a week, right? You go and you campaign for Orban, then he goes down three percentage points in the polls, then you head to Islamabad and come up empty. And so you have Trump melting down about it and two conflicting approaches. So the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has apparently begun. And that will have enormous economic implications for the Iranians. It'll cost them $276 million per day and lost exports, disrupt $159 million per day in imports, combined economic damage of $435 million per day. The Chinese Defense Minister has already made a statement saying we have a trade and energy agreement with Iran. We expect others not to interfere in our affairs. The Strait of Hormuz is open to us. So you got that escalation as well, kind of, you know, by extension between the U.S. and China. So the economic side of it, and then the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is interested in potentially ramping up the military side of this, again, and that we could have some strikes resuming. I don't know if that means during the era of the ceasefire, or if that means like we're going to go the next nine days and then we're going back to something not quite business as usual, like full-scale war, but that we're not afraid of continuing the military campaign and continue to, you know, rearm and move Americans further into the theater. So it kind of feels a bit like, I don't want to say nothing-ish because that's not fair, and the blockade is a very big deal, but it feels like we're really in a holding pattern, I guess, is my assessment and that JD Vance is not going to stop. What do you think? It's strangely, it is a weird analogy, but I'll make it, when the writers, the WGA, the union representing the writers who went on strike were negotiating with the studios, it's difficult to negotiate. It strikes me that neither the representatives or the board of members of the WGA or the Trump administration ever took a class or have anyone around the table who has ever seriously studied game theory, and that is incentives for if and when people want to negotiate, because when the WGA was negotiating with the studios and Netflix is the most powerful studio, the people on the other side of the table had a vested interest in not coming to an agreement, and that is that every day that the writers were out on strike, the bank or the library of content for broadcast media and the other streamers that weren't spending as much got shallower and shallower, and eventually they ran out of missiles, if you will. Meanwhile, Netflix's content library could go another two or three years before anybody noticed they weren't repopulating with it. So the most powerful person or entity on the other side of the table, Netflix, had a vested interest in not coming to an agreement, and what I think the Trump administration failed to realize is that the IRGC at this point has a vested interest in not coming to an agreement. This war so far has been accretive to the power of the IRGC, and that is the regime does not appear to be weakened. Slowly but surely, it appears like the populace is becoming a little bit more empathetic to the IRGC. They have discovered the equivalent of a nuclear device, and that is their ability to block or sequester the world economy or choke off the world economy by not even taking control of the straight, but by threatening it such that no one would insure it. So they have an incentive to fake talks, delay, come to a ceasefire such that they can rearm, regroup, because their military capacity, their launch capacity has been vastly diminished. Militarily, you could argue this is a victory for the U.S. and for the West, but strategically, Iran has woken up and recognized that they have convinced the Gulf States that a military alliance with the U.S. is a bug, not a feature, that it makes you less safe, not more safe, that they have power overpassage through the Strait of Hormuz, which gives them unbelievable leverage globally. So they have an incentive, quite frankly, not to come to an agreement unless it is on their terms. With respect to Vice President Vance, who I'm not a fan of, I think the administration poured honey on him and sent him hunting for bears, because I don't think it didn't matter who they sent. This deal was not going to get done. So this is, we are now, and let me just go further in anger many of our progressive listeners, I think that the Trump administration saying we're going to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and sequester all traffic from Iranian ports is the right move. The one thing that the U.S. with whatever help from the allies it can garner after sticking up the middle finger and doing head up your ass things like threatening to invade Greenland, the one thing they have to do is maintain what I'll call a key component of global trade for the last 150 years that like many of the things we take for granted isn't, shouldn't be taken for granted, and that is the rights of free navigation. If all of a sudden any country that can control a Strait starts leveraging that power for their own economic benefit, whether it's the Panama Canal or the Straits of Singapore, this just is, would be the biggest tax on global citizens ever. They have to open the Strait of Hormuz for free flow and traffic. They have to do that. So I actually think this was a good move to go and block all vessels going into Iranian ports, whether or not the Navy is going to be able to accomplish that, how long it will take. I don't know, but I think it has to happen anyways. Even because I agree with you that, I mean, doing something also something non-militarily seems like a good idea to me, you know, trying another route towards getting what we want. But our NATO allies are not interested in helping us out with this. Macron and Kirstarmer have already given comments on this. They're going to have a separate meeting, I think it's scheduled for Thursday about a way that our allies can get involved in a non-military way. So I guess there's an expectation that if you are participating in the blockade that things could get militarily hairy if you do that. So like, how do we accomplish this without our allies? Because it does feel like if they are going to do anything, it is going to be the most minimal possible, like maybe air rights being restored, right? Something that had been a point of contention. Well, so let's be clear. The only thing worse than fighting with your allies is fighting with our allies and the biggest mistake, I was, and I need to own this, I was a fan of military action against Iran. I saw it as a moment in time where we could do real damage to their ability to maintain funding and weapons flow to proxies who've been wreaking terror. I would argue we've been at war with Iran for 47 years, that to take out their launch capabilities and their Navy, there was, and also the regime appeared wobbly, that there was a non-zero probability this might be able to inspire and provide cloud cover for the overthrow of the IRGC. That did not happen. So the question is what now? But strategically, this couldn't have been more incompetent to not anticipate everything from putting in the infrastructure to get Westerners out of the Gulf, to securing Gulf air bases for more missile defense of Gulf nations. And then the biggest strategic failure was not securing the Strait of Hormuz, not recognizing that Iran would see this as an opportunity to seize it, but I just don't see any way around it. I think now we're there, we broke it. It can't be we broke it, you fixed it. And the thing that has to be fixed in my view is we have to secure the Strait of Hormuz for the free flow of goods and container ships. And also the one way, unfortunately, we will bring allies back to the table to support this, and I think it's terrible. We should have, we should have consulted Congress or the President should have consulted Congress, should have signed up at least a small number of European nations and Gulf allies instead of just pretending we got the biggest dick in town. We'll do it on our own and alienating everybody. But the way you will likely bring them to the table and Iran to the table is to say, no, we have a bigger Navy and we're implementing a blockade of Iranian ports. And then you're going to start to see everyone from China to Japan start to put pressure on Iran and put pressure on the Western allies to participate in this blockade, recognizing it's the only way Iran's not going to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz unless they have to. And I don't see any other way to apply pressure to them unless they say, all right, here's an idea. We're now blocking the Strait and dictating who goes through and who does not go through. I don't see any other way to get out of this move to the next stage of this, whatever it might be, whatever that looks like. If we leave having given up control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, you have effectively given Iran something probably more powerful than enriched uranium. Because if, for example, if they decided to cut off all fertilizer shipments from Qatar, you would have potentially, it might be a mass starvation event delayed by six months with a lag because of the amount of fertilizer coming out of there going into the growing season. So I would argue the red line here is that we have to make sure the Strait of Hormuz is open. You had mentioned, why are there other ways to do that? What are you, what are some of those other ways? I'm not sure how to do it without the naval accompaniment or the participation of our allies and a whole range of ways from the seas to the airspace. So I'm at a bit of a loss and it does seem like there are only two approaches being discussed at this point, which is going back to the military option, which most people agree with at this point is not the way forward. And there has been reporting that Donald Trump is sick of the war. He does get bored easily. And he was told it's supposed to be four to six weeks. And he's like, all right, well, we're on the clock, guys. Like I got other things to blow up. And then blockading the Strait, which again, huge economic hit to the Iranians at first. But this ceasefire, and we discussed this late last week, a blessing for the Iranians in terms of rearming because the Russians and the Chinese are like, oh, there's a slowdown, we got you. Don't worry. And I'm curious as to because the election in Hungary has direct implications for the strength of Russia going forward. So Viktor Orban losing to Peter Majar. I kind of feel bad for you that you're in LA, even though you had such a great time, because I feel like back in London right now, listening to the incoming Hungarian PM talking about Europa, Europa. And he even said, I hope the UK will rejoin the EU, which I think would be the best thing possible for them. I don't know. I got very emotional listening to him speak and kind of thinking about the promise of the European project coming back, that the Ukrainians are going to get their money, that the press will be free again in Hungary, that he's going to investigate everybody. I mean, he ticked through a list of all of the corrupt officials and oligarchs who have helped keep Orban in power for 16 years and consolidate his power. It feels like a really bright moment for Europe. And I wish it were a bright moment for the US, but we were on the wrong side here. It was us, Russia, and Viktor Orban, which is a pretty gross place to be. I think your emotion is the correct one. And I felt many of those same emotions. And I think it's the biggest story in a long time. And I actually think it's a victory for the 68% of Americans who don't side with the president right now. And this is an enormous victory for Ukraine. It's an enormous victory for democracy. It's an enormous victory for Europe. Probably the biggest loser here is Russia that was trying to turn Hungary into a satellite. And Orban was a critic of aid to Ukraine and creating friction around European full-throated support of Ukraine. We are more interconnected than we think. This is a huge loss for the far right. And Vance went over there and actually decreased Orban's popularity. So this is a reunification. Europe just became more of a union. This is incredibly inspiring. And also on Pivot, we do wins and fails. And my win today is not, obviously Orban's defeat is just incredibly inspiring for Western values. You're right. It is an emotional moment if you care about democracy in the West and support of Ukraine. But my win is going to be Viktor Orban because he did something that the fascists here in this country wouldn't do. And that is he conceded the election. Right away. He stood up and he said, we'll continue to fight. He thanked his people. And he conceded the election. And that is ground zero for a democracy. And we don't have it in this country. I just saw three federal judges who were supposed to go through confirmation in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee refused to acknowledge that Joseph Biden had won the 2020 election. Viktor Orban is fascist as he was, is bad for Europe as he was, maybe he didn't believe in his beliefs. But he showed more fidelity to democracy by conceding than our president and many people on the right. There are senators, there are elected officials everywhere in this country who refuse to acknowledge. They use this bullshit language. Well, Biden was duly sworn in and he's the president now. But they refused to say he was elected. So this was not only an incredible vibe victory for the West, an incredible indictment against Russia's aggression, an incredible indictment against the Trump administration, but also shows with countries we don't agree with, there are still leaders who recognize that if they can't concede elections, we can't have anything resembling a democracy. That this whole experiment around the West digresses into chaos. So I share many of your emotions. I think it was a really big moment. And I also just want to acknowledge that Viktor Orban was willing to do something that our leaders so far have been unwilling to do. And that is concede an election and say democracy means a saying, when you lose, you lose and the peaceful transfer of power. Yeah, well, he probably also is like, is there a chance I could get a Hungarian version of a pardon? I don't really know how the system works there. Oh, that's a interesting point. I mean, I'm not sure, but I imagine the guy is pretty calculated. Or safe passage to Paris or something. Yeah, well, passage may be here. Two things, because you mentioned the vibe and there are scenes from Budapest that are just incredible. So on the metro, people just screaming, Russia out. Yeah, and singing. They're the grandmothers that are getting out of their cars to dance with the young people. And did you see the what will be the incoming health minister dancing on stage? And I tweeted about how much I would rather have this guy who I believe is an orthopedic surgeon and actually knows something about health versus an RFK junior. But it feels so pure. And they did this against a state that had been so hardened against democracy. So Arban was in control of 80 to 90% of the press. And that's why it's interesting to think about how people are like, oh, he's a dictator, he's an authoritarian, like they still had elections, right? He basically just went after all of the institutions, which is a lot of what we see going on here to ensure that he could consolidate power. And the Hungarians were actually consultants for Project 2025. I don't know if you knew this. The Republicans took a lot of the playbook for Project 2025 from what the Hungarians have been able to do. So controlling 80 to 90% of the press, weakening the institutions, weakening the judiciary, telling you that you can't believe your lying eyes and beating people down. And people just said enough, investigative journalists never stopped their work. They went hard and they relied on the rest of the world also to amplify their stories. People protesting out in the streets. Timothy Snyder was talking about this, like, we still have voices, right? It was 8 million for the No Kings protests the last time around. I'm sure it'll be 10, 12, 14 million continuing to tick up. It's just wildly exciting. And then I want to say something about the new prime minister's politics, because there's been some framing of this as a right versus left. And it's not that actually, he's pretty right leaning, you know, right to moderate right, you know, kind of anti immigration was critical of how many guest workers Orban had actually let in. He had some very nice comments about the LGBTQ plus population, which I was thrilled to see. But the framing here is very similar to what people like John Ossoff are doing when they talk about corruption. It was an us versus them. It wasn't about Orban's politics, at least, you know, if you don't consider the Russia-Ukraine issue. But it was really about the fact that you can't have these corrupt guys in power who don't care about you. And it was a people's revolution. And I think that gives those of us here in the United States who are feeling really cornered and kind of beaten down by what the Trump administration is doing and how no Republicans will even, you know, say, yeah, it was a free and fair election, Donald Trump lost, Joe Biden was the real deal. Like, there is a bit of a roadmap in this for us. And it's not necessarily a policy question. It's a vibes question and a line of argumentation and really inspiring people to feel less powerless, and that we shouldn't be a place that's governed by oligarchs. And I don't know, I thought that was really important and very exciting to see the potency of. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Dell Technologies, built for you. Dell.com slash Dell PCs. Recommendations can't be amazing. I mean, maybe someone recommended that TV show you've been obsessed with Lili. But when it comes to home projects, it's different. If you don't like a show, you might lose a few minutes. If you hire a friend, a friend, a friend to fix a leaky ceiling, you could end up with a flooded kitchen. Maybe I know a guy just isn't enough for your home. That's why Thumbtack works so well. They'll match you with a top rated local pro, and you can see photos of past work, credentials and reviews all right in the app. For your next home project, try Thumbtack. Hire the right pro today. Welcome back. Just a quick story before we go here. California's governor's race just got rocked. Congressman Eric Swalwell has now suspended his campaign following a wave of sexual assault and misconduct allegations, upending an already crowded and unpredictable Democratic field. The fallout has been swift with endorsements pulled, a criminal investigation underway, and no clear front runner emerging. Meanwhile, Republicans remain divided, even with Trump weighing in, leaving both sides without a unified path forward as the race heads into a critical stretch. Jess, you were a pollster. What are your thoughts on the race? Well, right now it's wide open. It was a very big deal that President Trump came out and endorsed Steve Hilton on the Republican side, another one of my former colleagues, Fox News, to the top. Because there was a risk that the jungle primary that system that they have was going to produce two Republicans, essentially no Dems were going to get in. Chad Bianco, the expectation is that it he'll fall away and Hilton will rise up. Swalwell was top of the heap on the Democratic side. And then once these allegations started coming out about midweek, Tom Steyer was the main beneficiary. Now Swalwell has dropped out of the race, which completely makes sense. I mean, these allegations are terrible. And now you're seeing evidence from over a decade ago that it was pretty much an open secret that this is how Eric Swalwell operates. There was something called a creep list of electeds. Going back to there was an article on CNN from 2017 and over half a dozen staffers all apparently named one California Congressman as a main offender, which suggests that Eric Swalwell's behavior was something that was known to a lot of people. The question now, I think, we'll see how things shuffle around on the Democratic side in the governor's race, but what happens to Eric Swalwell? And there are other lawmakers who are in the midst of ethics investigations for them to Republicans, to Democrats. And one of the Republicans is that Tony Gonzalez, who we talked about, who had an affair with one of his staffers and she ended up lighting herself on fire. In the way, Jesus, that was a crazy story. So there are people on both sides of the aisle who would like a vote on expelling all four members. And I kind of think that maybe that's the right approach that you clean house on this. It's two and two. Republicans obviously have a very slim majority and Mike Johnson wants the ethics investigations to play out. Maybe he thinks that he can keep Cory Mills, who's also being investigated. But it feels like we can just have better people in these positions. I'm so grossed out. I feel terrible for the victims. I wish that they had felt like they could speak out earlier and that we had engendered an environment where that would be possible. But it's pretty bleak for standards of leadership in this country. Yeah, I think there's some nuance here. And we do a lot of this with on boards. And that is, one of the things I don't like about the Democratic Party is his purity test. I don't think Senator Franken should have been driven out of Congress such that Chris and Jill Abram could have a seven minute run for presidency. And I don't think anything he did was remotely warranted his expulsion from Congress. At the same time, and this is true in the corporate world, when there's a power asymmetry, so on boards, generally speaking, we have to deal with this all the time. And my view is when you put a bunch of young people in close proximity to each other, they're going to have sex. And that intra office, intra campus affairs on faculty, that happens. And there's, in my view, I don't, as long as it's consensual, there's nothing wrong with that. The problem is when there's a power dynamic imbalance and people get harassed or people feel some sort of pressure to engage in some sort of conduct that is outside of their control. And when you're in Congress, when you're a Congressperson, in my view, any relationship whatsoever with a staffer is grounds for expulsion. What you're doing is so important. The power asymmetry is so dramatic that if you do develop catch feelings for someone, one of you needs to resign and then you can maintain a relationship outside of the office. But if you're a Congressperson or a Senator and you are found having an affair, it doesn't matter if it's extramarital or your single. The power imbalance is so dramatic, you are putting so many people at risk that if you can't keep your fly up unlocked while you are an elected representative, you're out. Just like no questions asked, do not pass go, you are out. And I think that I feel the same way about CEOs and corporations. Once you get above a certain level of power, you take that shit off campus. You are rich, which means you can find other people to fuck elsewhere. And if you do it internally, we don't care if it's consensual. We don't care what, how it came about. You're out. I like a very clean policy around this shit. The staffers go out, get drunk, fuck each other, have out it, as long as it's consensual. But once you are on elected representatives, anyone who you have power over in your office, that's it. That's, you're done. That's a power imbalance that is unhealthy and creates too much risk, which gets in the way of the work you are supposed to accomplish. All right, enough of my rant. Just as we wrap up, what does this mean for the election? Where to hit, how in any way does it reconfigure the race? Well, I mean, it'll reconfigure the race in a big way. Like I said, Tom Steyer was already the one who was soaking up the most of Swalwell's support, but that was before he had officially dropped out. That was just when there were, you know, allegations swore. This is a PS momentum right now. It does, but who knows? I mean, he also has a lot of money. And we know that sometimes money means more than momentum in politics. So, you know, I guess if I'd say like election held tomorrow, maybe it would be Steyer, but labor unions don't like him. It's very hard for a billionaire to get elected on the democratic side, even one who, you know, fights for climate change reforms as much as a Tom Steyer. But, you know, Katie Porter was out there with a statement saying, you know, Swalwell's got to go. She still has hopes that this is going well for her. I mean, it's a big democratic field. You're going to see jockeying in the next several weeks. Pelosi put out a very strong statement about Swalwell getting out. So, we'll see if maybe she does want to throw her weight behind somebody, which would obviously, you know, be a big deal in a California race. So, TBD, but I think, you know, the governor's race itself matters a lot. But the questions around who are these people that get these incredibly important jobs and how they conduct themselves in everything from sexual assault to campaign finance violations just behave well. There are only 435 of you and only 100 of you on the Senate side. Like you are in incredibly rarefied positions and breathing rarefied air and you should act as such. Yeah, it's pretty basic. If you're the head of the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, don't hire someone you're fucking and then fuck on a government plane. If you're prosecuting the president for trying to manipulate and throw an election and seize voter rolls, don't hire someone you're fucking as your number two. I mean, it's just not rocket science. We don't have the right, I don't believe, to damage people's careers if and when they decide to have sex with people or if and what they do morally or personally as it relates to their own way they acquit themselves with respect to their marriage. But don't fuck the people who work for you who you have power over when you are in an important position. It's just, it puts everyone at risk. That's a weird way to end it before we go. I think it's a very good way. It's a good way. And those are our values. There you go. It's so funny, I just got to say that's being on the faculty. It's always a weird conversation though, the faculty, because there's a non-zero number of people in faculty who are married. One of the ways we recruit faculty is we offer their spouses jobs because it's hard. Oftentimes couples are both faculty members and a great number of times the dynamic is the following. I'll ask you, guess how they met? When you have two faculty members- One was the other student. Yeah. 100% because the guy who is the is the bomb in Gap2 accounting in 1994, the only place he has any game is in the classroom and his PhD student falls in love with him. And I get it, but literally the room goes quiet whenever people start talking about student real. And sometimes the students, some of my students are 30, 35. So it's not like it's not like daddy's dropping up. It's not like an 18 year old. Yeah, it's not like daddy's dropping up an 18 year old. But anyways. Those elbow patches are sexy. I'm not going to lie. I was a PhD student. I didn't do anything, but I get it. You're like, I want to do well. He knows everything about my very esoteric topic. Yeah, well, it's the worst version of a rock star. It's a low rent version of the Biebs. Anyways, before we go, a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates now five days a week, we're now available on sub-stack. Subscribers get ad free episodes, live streams and a place to connect with me, Jess and the rest of the community. Plus you'll get access to the new Raging Moderates newsletter, the Monday Rage out now. Find us at ragingmoderates.prophetimedia.com. Again, that's ragingmoderates.prophetimedia.com. Also, this is exciting for us. We've been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News and Politics podcast. We've only got a few days left to bring it home. If you've been enjoying the show, now's the time. Help push us from second place to first place by casting your vote, visiting the link in the description. Vote in closes this Thursday, so don't wait and show us some love. If we do win, we promise to present either in person or somehow we are going to do something to present the award to Donald Trump. He is such a huge fan of Jess. That was not in the script. Yeah. That's all for this episode. Thank you so much for joining us today. Have a good rest of the week, Jess. You too, Scott.
