Regress or Impress + 2nd Half Studs, Horse Talk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/26
51 min
•Mar 26, 20262 months agoSummary
The Fantasy Footballers analyze second-half 2025 NFL season standouts to predict whether they'll regress or impress in 2026, covering quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running backs Chase Brown and Kenneth Gainwell, wide receivers Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., and tight end Kyle Pitts. The hosts discuss roster construction strategies, NFL offseason moves, and provide fantasy football rankings and draft guidance for the upcoming season.
Insights
- Young players like Trevor Lawrence (26) and Kyle Pitts (25) showing late-season improvement may continue developing rather than regressing, suggesting age and experience matter more than single-season performance spikes
- Offensive context dramatically impacts fantasy value—Chase Brown's early-season struggles coincided with QB injuries, while Michael Wilson's breakout came when the Cardinals threw 40+ times per game due to defensive weakness
- Team composition changes (new RBs, WRs, QBs) create uncertainty; Kenneth Gainwell's move to Tampa Bay with Bucky Irving present suggests reduced opportunity despite Pittsburgh success
- Late-season performance can be misleading when driven by outlier games (Kyle Pitts' 40-point week 15) or injury-driven opportunity (Drake London's absence boosting Pitts' targets)
- Dynasty league strategy requires balancing rankings with player preference and age, as younger players have longer career arcs to develop within a single league
Trends
NFL offseason QB movement (Joe Flacco to Bengals, Jacoby Brissett to Cardinals) creates backup insurance value for fantasy teamsRunning back market consolidation with franchise tag threats (Jonathan Taylor, Breeze Hall, Gibbs, Bijan) may reduce free agency opportunitiesWide receiver depth charts increasingly volatile with mid-season injuries creating unexpected breakout opportunitiesTight end position remains unpredictable with significant weekly variance and injury risk affecting fantasy valueSecond-half season performance spikes often driven by injury-related opportunity rather than sustainable skill improvementCoaching changes (Liam Cohen to Jaguars) can stabilize young QB development and offensive consistencyBad team defenses force increased passing volume, inflating fantasy stats for receivers on struggling offensesDynasty startup drafts require multi-day commitment and hydration planning, indicating high engagement intensity
Topics
Fantasy Football Regress or Impress AnalysisNFL Quarterback Performance TrendsRunning Back Depth Chart ChangesWide Receiver Target Share VolatilityTight End Position UnpredictabilityDynasty League Draft StrategyNFL Offseason Free Agency ImpactInjury-Driven Fantasy OpportunityCoaching System TransitionsSecond-Half Season Performance SustainabilityBest Ball Draft RankingsFranchise Tag ImplicationsOffensive Coordinator ChangesTeam Defense Impact on Fantasy ValuePlayer Age and Development Curves
Companies
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence's team with new OC Liam Cohen; analyzed for QB performance improvement and offensive stability
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown's team; discussed as stable offense with Joe Flacco backup insurance for Burrow injury risk
Arizona Cardinals
Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s team; analyzed for WR target share and QB uncertainty with Pinnocks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kenneth Gainwell's new team; discussed for RB opportunity with Bucky Irving and Rashad White competition
Atlanta Falcons
B. Robinson Jr. signing creates confusion with Brian Robinson Jr.; analyzed for Jameer Gibbs impact
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenneth Gainwell's previous team; noted for weak receiving corps that inflated his target share
Detroit Lions
Mentioned as acquiring Cardinals' blob fish (player) due to offensive success under Cardinals system
Dallas Cowboys
Jacoby Brissett defeated as Cardinals starter; referenced in QB performance discussion
People
Andy Holloway
Birthday episode host; celebrates 68th birthday during show
Jason Moore
Co-host analyzing regress/impress trends and providing fantasy rankings
Mike Wright
Co-host discussing dynasty strategy and player evaluation methodology
Trevor Lawrence
Analyzed for potential continued improvement under Liam Cohen in year two of system
Chase Brown
Second-half breakout player; discussed for sustainability with Joe Burrow health concerns
Michael Wilson
Analyzed for regress/impress potential; showed elite metrics in second half despite early struggles
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Compared to Michael Wilson for target share; year three of development discussed
Kyle Pitts
Analyzed for sustainability; 40-point week 15 outlier skews season average significantly
Kenneth Gainwell
Free agent signing analyzed for reduced opportunity with Bucky Irving competition
Bucky Irving
Discussed as primary RB threat; undersized but talented player with injury history
Joe Flacco
Signed as backup insurance; discussed as capable replacement if Burrow injured
Breeze Hall
60/40 odds on extension vs. franchise tag; discussed for free agency potential
Jameer Gibbs
Mentioned in context of Brian Robinson signing impact on Falcons backfield
Brian Robinson Jr.
Signed to 1-year deal; creates confusion with Brian Robinson on sleeper platform
Liam Cohen
New OC credited with Trevor Lawrence's second-half improvement and system stability
Jacoby Brissett
Starting QB for Cardinals; discussed for impact on Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison targets
Ryan Gosling
Referenced for viral clip doing youth slang in serious delivery for Hail Mary movie
Quotes
"For 68, I think I'm doing all right."
Andy Holloway•Opening segment
"If you're hydrating day of it's done. You must hydrate at least the day before for any type of strenuous situation."
Mike Wright•Dynasty startup draft advice
"I would draft cam scataboo. Well, yeah, right. Bad example. Right. Bad example with the injury in the Harbaugh."
Jason Moore•Dynasty player preference discussion
"Pony boy is a fun name. I don't feel as insulting when I'm going with a classic literary character."
Jason Moore•Trevor Lawrence nickname discussion
"Bad teams really ruin good players. I think that's so true of the Browns and the Jets."
Andy Holloway•Michael Wilson analysis
Full Transcript
It's hard to concentrate when you're worried about your health. It can feel like there's a wall between you and the rest of the world. Like you can't be fully present. Hello, AXA Health. How can I help? At AXA Health Insurance, we build our teams with people who care. So when you need us, we're here to support you. For cover that cares, search AXA Health Insurance. Pre-existing conditions are not covered. Is your dog scratching, itching or rubbing? When they're suffering from an itchy skin condition, finding an at-home remedy that brings relief can seem impossible. That's where your vet comes in. They're the only one who can diagnose the cause and offer effective relief to bring your itchy dog a source of comfort. See your vet to find a source of comfort for your itchy dog. Learn more at itchydogcare.co.uk Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday, March 26th. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Jason Moore, Mike Wright. I'm Andy Holloway. Happy birthday. Oh. According to the show doc, it is my 68th birthday. And the calendar. Oh, the 68th? It says 68th, didn't it? It says 68th birthday. Oh. Yeah, in the show doc. You're honest, honestly, Andy. I didn't think you were looking for that. For 68, I think I'm doing all right. Thank you. I think you're the gotta be top thousand of 68 year olds as far as look. Physical appearance. So how old was he then, Jason? How old was he prior to this? 67. Oh, son of a gun. No, hey. Yes. Hey, I'll run up. I've overcame. Okay. Us, our generation. Our generation. Did we do it? We already did. We already killed it. I mean, we did. We did. We got you. You swift work with the 67. Oh, it was not swift. That thing was intense. It was intense, but it was, I mean, it quickly went from like, oh, the biggest thing and all the youth. And then all us old men came in and were like, we'll show you how stupid this is. And you started doing it. Yeah. Like crazy. And now it's over. It's over. If you have not seen, there is a clip going around of Ryan Gosling doing some publicity for head, what hashtag not sponsored project. Hail Mary. Awesome. It's great movie. But there's a, it's just a clip of him with an interviewer and it's all just the youth slang, but in a real serious delivery. If you've not seen that, it is delightful. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we're happy to have you. With us today. Regressor impress is the main topic on the show. Historic L. We got news to talk about. We got some mailbag if we got time and a reminder, the ultimate draft kit available for preorder right now. Ultimate draft kit.com to check that out. If you want access to everything we offer all year long, including all the in season app tools and resources and lineup options, you can find them on the website. All tools and resources and lineup optimizer, everything we do, including the ultimate draft kit. You can become an ultimate supporter at jointhefoot.com become a foot clan member over there and just get access to everything and make it really easy for yourself. Our quick question of the day comes from Charles in Oklahoma. Hello ballers doing a first time dynasty startup and just wondering if you had any tips or suggestions to make it as fun as possible. Thank you. I mean, first of all, draft all the best players that will make your league way more fun. Dynasty startup, man. You better start hydrating multiple days before something that somehow the general public doesn't yet understand this. If you're hydrating day of it's done. Yeah, you're it's too late. You are not hydrating. You must hydrate at least the day before for any type of of strenuous situation and a dynasty startup draft. If you have never done one, clear the schedule. I mean, imagine our, so our main league of record draft, we have 11 rounds because we've got keepers in there. And that last several hours we do it in person offline, which is honestly, that's my biggest answer to this question is try to do your, you only have one dynasty startup ever. If you guys and gals and whoever's in your league are, are geographically in the same place or even able to take a trip to, you know, let's all go to Vegas for a draft. If you can draft in person, yes, it is so much fun. However, what Mike is saying is, you know, you're going to end up going 30 rounds. So yeah, get your pushups in, get, get prepped for a long draft. Make sure you've got lunch and dinner. Do you remember ours? I do. I do remember it was an eternity. It was so much fun for about half of it, at least 75% of it. Where was it? That was at my house. Yeah. Yeah. It makes sense. Okay. Yeah. I don't remember it at all. You blocked it out. Yeah. But it's fun. And let me, let me ask you a side question as a follow up, because he's asking about how to make the draft as fun as possible. You joked about drafting the best players. How much of a, like we have dynasty startup rankings. I'm just curious how much you yourself are willing to bend the rankings to draft players you love because it's a dynasty league. Oh, every time. Yeah. Going against the grain of not necessarily what big, because you're going to have this player a lot longer in theory and usually, I mean, there's a lot of turnover on everybody's roster, but if there's a player that you really love, especially if it's a younger player, and it's like, I'm just in love. Yeah. If it's cam scataboo. Yeah, exactly. I would draft cam scataboo. Well, yeah, right. Bad example. Right. Bad example with the injury in the Harbaugh. You're more worried about the Harbaugh than the Jeremiah Love. Right. Yeah. I mean, I really am the only the love. I just can't imagine a team that has scataboo, Tarot, Tracy and single Terry would take love. Yes. Good. But if anyone would, it would be Harbaugh. Um, yeah, but I don't feel like he will do that. I just think that oil and water is a ground up guy. The Titans need to remove the option. Titans do the wrong thing. I was in take draft of running back at number four. Well, there were some reports, right? That neither of those teams were really going to take him. And Washington's the first team that was considered. I did not see that. So, I mean, there's, you can hear rumors on all sides of everything because some of it is smoke. All I know is that if you want love, you need to trade to three. Right. GM's out there. Yeah. Come and get them. Yeah. There you go. All right. News and notes from around the league. All right. Let's talk some news. The Falcons die a bollicle. The Falcons are sighing, sighing Brian Robinson, Robinson to a one year deal worth 2.5 million. They lost Tyler Algear to Arizona. This guy was already a problem. It already happened last year on the sleeper platform. When you're drafting and I think right now that's the, This is going to happen thousands of times. At the most common platform right now. Obviously lots of drafts on different platforms, but they display their players. First initial last name, position and team. And so if you didn't pay attention last year to the team, you could have accidentally drafted Brian Robinson, which people did. But now he shares a team with B. John. It's B. Robinson, Atlanta Falcons running back. You gotta be sweating. Yes. You are binoculars on looking for the junior. You're like, I'm not getting the junior. You don't want the junior. Don't take the junior. What's B. John Robinson's number? Seven. Is he seven? I think he's seven. Okay. And Mooney was fake seven. Mooney was one. I was just saying, I think Brian Robinson was, he was eight in Washington. Oh no, he better not go to one. Oh man. If he takes Jersey one, it's over. Because you already had a problem with Mooney. Mooney. Half the size of B. John plays a different position. If he done, oh, they've got to do it. They've got to. I'm like, I want to watch the world burn every time that he's in there and everyone thinks it's B. I mean, this is, uh, LG is a better player than Brian Robinson, Jr. But Brian Robinson is still a, a larger physical back. They need a depth. I'm not concerned about Brian. Yeah, it shouldn't be a big deal. I think the question here from a fantasy perspective is, is this enough of an impact? You know, the, the Jameer Gibbs versus B. John argument at the, the 101 one, Steven Montgomery left and Tyler LG are left. Brian Robinson coming to town. Will that vulture be Robinson? Will be Robinson coming to, will be Robinson vulture be Robinson? Right. Enough to make J Gibbs the first, the first draft. Well, I Pacheco is about the same as B. Robinson in terms of my concern level. They're both in the same tier of, they're both downgrades to the players that were there before. Montgomery were much bigger threats to both J Gibbs and B. Robinson, non senior sleeper, you got the room for me. That's what they need to do. This needs to be the year B, John decides to be called B John Robinson, senior, not junior, not junior, Mike, you've got to be happy. I know you're happy, Joe flackle back to the bangles on a dynasty team loves it. Yeah, because honestly, you just want your guys, we all, we all, we all, we all, we all want Jamar Chase, yeah, T Higgins, Chase Brown to be functional. If the often injured burrow is injured. Yeah, this is fantastic news of a true actual insurance running or a quarterback. And not just if you have burrow and burrow misses time, like if he's out, you will be able to pick up flackle and simply play him. To have the other players continue. In fact, last year, Jamar Chase, his numbers were better with Joe flackle compared to Joe burrow ever so slightly. I don't, that's not like a 20, 28 targets a game. Yeah, that's not a play Joe flackle. It's just a, Hey, if burrow misses the time, like he almost always does, don't sweat it. You'll be all right. Honestly, everybody can get injured in the league. I know burrow has had more injuries, but Stafford has been injured plenty of times. He's got a back injury. Darnell could get injured. To me, when you're looking at those top three wide receivers right now in fantasy, this, this is a good enough tiebreaker to me that should the starting quarterback go down, I'm not having to worry about Drew lock or Stetson Bennett or Jalen Milrow as trying to support my number two pick in the draft. Joe flackle, we know could get it done. There is a report this morning, the athletic saying it's a 60 40 chance that breeze hall signs an extension with the jets after the NFL draft as opposed to playing on the franchise. Yeah, which is this is interesting to me. I know that the, the jets have always, they've said we want to get breeze hall back with the long-term extension. Their actions certainly have not really said that considering you should have extended him a year ago, but this is how do you Jason? How do you feel about this? Do it. Breeze hall. That's how I feel about it. Don't do it, breeze. Don't. He's generational wealth. Look, financially, sure, do it. But what about me and my dynasty team? So next year in theory, I mean, the franchise tag is there for any of the great players. Jonathan Taylor will probably get franchise if they don't come to an agreement. Bijon. Oh, Bijon. There was the report, I think from Schefter of like get ready for Gibbs. Yeah, Gibbs and Bijon. We should see a market reset. Yeah, they probably, those guys probably won't hit the open market. And if John of the Taylor is also franchise, then that would really mean breeze hall is the king of free agency. I can't fathom a double franchise tag in a row on a running back. Right. So I would if I'm Breeze's agent, I would say just play one more year, stay healthy, go get a bag for a different team. He'll be don't make the decision to get injured, breeze. Twenty five. Yeah, see that's decide to stay healthy. It's just mental. You sound like Pook or something. Oh, 2026. We have our kickoff schedule for Wednesday, September 9th in Seattle. You heard that right? What Wednesday? Yeah, because Thursday is going down on that. Is it? Yeah, Thursday is going to be Melbourne Melbourne. Sorry, I don't know. Melbourne. I know they always they like to go up. Yeah. Now, what time I haven't been there. So I'm curious about this. So so the season's going to kick off on Wednesday. Some people are really excited about some people are unhappy. I don't like the like football every day of the week thing that they're trying to do. However, by the time week one comes around, I'm so excited. It's the first week. I want that. But yeah, but it's a slippery slope because then everyone's excited and then it's going to have it. Anyways, what I'm concerned about is because this game is coming from down under on Thursday. What time is it here? Are they? It's 8 30 Eastern. All right. Okay. PM. I'm what time is it? Yeah, I guess. Thank you for the follow. It's the future is the morning of the future. So they will be playing Friday morning. OK. Got it. I mean, this is how the sun works. Do we care that the Eagles signed Elijah Moore, the Saints, signed Zach Wilson or the Falcons signed Tyler Goodson? Are you talking about Elijah Moore? Just one season removed from a hundred targets in Cleveland. Kind of. Per the tweets. Per reporters. Stop it. I don't need your interjection. A lot. Elijah Moore is on a nice Laquan Treadwell arc in terms of just being in the league for a long time. All right. I can't believe Laquan Treadwell. Do one of the greatest busts of all. Like he's up there with the Corey Coleman and the remarks. Russell, like he was supposed to be. He has got to be an amazing locker room guy. He just has to. Just the bet. Like he probably picks up all the towels. I've never seen a like cleans an outright bust, which he is. He's not a disappointment like Marvin Harrison, Jr. Right now is not a bust. No. Marvin Harrison, Jr. Is just disappointing because you drafted him so high. This is an outright bust who has stayed in the league for a decade. He's played continually and no one knows it. It's like he's still in the league. Dude, I totally forgot. Laquan Treadwell, year one. First round wide receiver selection by the Minnesota Vikings accumulated the total statistics of one reception for 15 yards. No, no, no. This is even better. He's still in the league, right? Here's his last four years. Total receptions, six, then one. And by the way, we're starting in 2022. Six, one, zero, zero. Seven receptions in the last four years still signing contracts. He appeared in 10 games. He was in 10 games last year. This is six percent of snaps. This has got to be like a special teams thing. Oh, this is an amazing job he's figured out. Yeah. Good for you, man. I mean, you're vested. You're retirement health insurance. Good for you. Hang in on. And isn't it like every year you play, you get a little bit more for some like that he is. He's going for it. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back with regressor and press. If your team isn't using your CRM, it isn't working. Pipe Drive is a simple CRM. It's easy to use so you can focus on closing. Get 30 days free at PipeDrive.com forward slash audio. It's hard to concentrate when you're worried about your health. It can feel like there's a wall between you and the rest of the world. Like you can't be fully present. Hello, AXA Health. How can I help? At AXA Health Insurance, we build our teams with people who care. So when you need us, we're here to support you. For cover that cares, search AXA Health Insurance. Pre-existing conditions are not covered. Looking good there, Andy. New graphic, huh? Oh, man. A little birthday present for me. Someone's been working out. Regressor and press. We're going to start with second half studs from last year and talk through the trends that we saw at the end of the 2025 season, whether we believe these players will regress or impress in 2026. I love this first name. Yeah. I mean, this is this is this one is an interesting conversation. Yeah, because I see the outcomes really being like I could talk myself very heavily into both sides of the. Yeah. So Trevor Lawrence quarterback at the Jacksonville Jaguars, amazing season for them was super impressive after the bye week. He got it figured out weeks one through seven. He was the quarterback 13, 16 fancy points a game. But guys, after the bye, 22.6 fancy points a game. You know, this is the quarterback one over that time period over that time period. He finished the season as the quarterback for basically 20 fantasy points per game, which was his career high in year five. First year with Leigh and Coam. You've got Lee, Liam Cohen. I switch the N and M. Do that. The N and M. Yeah. Yeah, that's impressive. Yeah. Yeah, that's cool. Dylan Gabriel. Dylan. Gabriel. Dylan. Gabriel. Oh yeah, you could do this. This was anything. I just give me a name and watch out. Okay. Pee Sean Robinson. Okay. No, I'm going. Oh man, I was going to do your name. Yours is going to be hard. I would not. I'd stop all your head. You might walk into a word you don't want to say. Yeah. That's true. Good advice. Were you in the middle of a thought? He was. I was at the end. No, no, I was. What happened was I was in the middle of a thought, but the bridge collapsed. Oh, and now it's lost. I'm in the ocean. Right. Here's why it's easy to be on both sides of the argument for Trevor Lawrence. His success was over, it wasn't like three or four weeks. Like we've had some of these regrets are impressed, where it's the last three weeks of a season, and it's amazing. This was from week eight on, although I would say he kind of turned on the jets for the last four weeks. I mean, he had three top five finishes in that stretch, but you got other reasons to believe, right? The draft capital, the potential for him coming in, did he get on lock with Liam Cohen, the fact that that offense is going to be stable for another season. Not always the case for Trevor Lawrence. Historically, you have Liam Cohen in there with tons of weapons in the receiver. They really do. Yeah. I mean, part of the second half of that season was Jacobi Myers arriving. And Travis Hunter was out for a lot of it. He'll be back. And Brian Thomas Jr., do they get that figured out? Great tight end. You can also have the argument. You know, one of the arguments that we have against Jordan Love is that when Josh Jacobs came to town, they were able to run the ball much better and they didn't need to rely on the passing him. Travis ETN leaving, you know, Travis ETN a couple of years ago had 11 rushing touchdowns had seven last year. Like that, that puts the team a little bit more good on the arm of Trevor Lawrence going into year two in this system. And I will say this is probably better. On the ground. I really want to be a, yeah, you're true. I mean, maybe as a goal line back to is an upgrade, but whether or not they view that schematically and decision wise, like, hey, we're going to really rely on rushing the touchdowns in when we get around there. I don't know that that's true. But Trevor Lawrence and we. Sam Darnold was drafted very, very high, had many years before it looked like he was competent, several teams. And you think, OK, well, we're going into year six. We know who Trevor Lawrence is. Trevor Lawrence is 26 years old. He's a he if he worked here at our studio, we would call him a child. Right. For sure. We'd call him a horse child. And. And we would say, hey, horse child, you're still getting better. And so I do think my gosh, I mean, you know, if he worked here, we'd call him a horse child. There's no way we wouldn't. A baby horse, maybe a pony. I don't know what we'd call him. But he's my boy. He's ever called anything a horse child. My go my go on my point, obviously, is he actually might still be getting much better. What outsiders on this. Yeah, there we go. Pony boy is a great character. Stakehold. Trevor is his age, I think, is what really pushes me to think maybe he did level up and figure something out. Also the willingness and this has been something that is in his capabilities that he was not doing enough. And it was so frustrating, so frustrating watching him with all the opportunities to run the ball and pick stuff up with his legs and he didn't do it horse legs with his army. Come on. If you're a horse, Rogalip, goal, man, put them shoes on and trot. And but I do, I do think I think he's leveled up. I think it's going. I think he's going to continue to impress the I'm on. I'm on the impress side. The the the questionable things will be. So that time period you said where he was the QB one in points. It's after the bi-week while he had seven rushing touchdowns in that time. And will that sort of a thing. Continue going like, well, that regress or impress, you know, we Baker Mayfield under under Cohen did see kind of his first spike in rushing. So is is that truly a part of the offense where they got to the bi-week in Cone was like, dude, Pony boy run. You could you are your humongous. Did you just get in on it? Pony boy is a fun name. Yeah. Pony boy is good. I don't I don't feel as insulting when I'm when I'm going with a classic literary character Pony boy versus horse child. Pony boy is better. Pony boy is kinder. Pony boy is a great character. Yeah, a literary icon. Wait, what is that from? The outsiders. Oops. Yeah. Not everybody's just learning as a smike. Jason, I can't. I'm normally was like, read a book and you're you are in there's there's a musical. I saw it on Broadway. So stay golden. Yeah, he's not up. He's not a fool anymore. There's some me. How do you say that? No, you there's a musical. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Outsiders. Great musical. So it's not foul. OK. Well, foul is like a bird or like a penalty. Right. The fact like I've never heard this argument of, you know, it's all the movie going regress on Jason Impress on Trevor Long. Movies, the movie book people. It's like, oh, the book was better. Now we have book musical music and the musical. The musical is better than the book. It is. Oh, what a world we live in. So those are my biggest questions for Pony Boy about will will he be rushing in that many touchdowns because nine the 359 yards. That's not crazy. You know, you can tell Lawrence is at a year of 334, 339. So that the yardage didn't spike to a place that we've never seen before. But do you expect it to hit from the starting gate? I I think if we can get the blinders on him. I think that he could zero in and really take in the lab to a new place. Yeah. The we mentioned he also had 8.6% of his pass attempts were dropped, which is the highest I mean, shout out to Brian Thomas for everything he did for that. Shout out to BTJ for the 8.6. That's tied for the highest rate of any quarterback over the last four years. So you're talking 400 potential yards, which you're not going to get all of that. But of course, you still got you still got some of those back. But that that's a lot of drops that I don't think we'll have. And Brian Thomas cleaned up the his drop problem over the second half. Are we prepared to move on to the next name? So right now in underdog, he's going that quarterback 10. Yeah, that that final question there is where you think he'll end up. I would say I don't mind that if he ends up as quarterback. Seven. Does that fit into the. Impressed category. Quarterback seven will be. Is that I think it would continue the trend that he had last year. So I'd say he would continue impressing. However, I wouldn't be happy with drafting him. Yeah. I mean, that's those are two different conversations, whether or not you believe. Like, I think Trevor Lawrence continues to impress. He's probably not the quarterback that I'm going to leave my drafts with. Because when you're coming off of a great year like he just had, he will be drafted not as a late round quarterback. Does it feel like Baker? Yeah, very, very similar to Baker when when he was coming off of his. But he but but he can run when he still has Cohen. Baker lost the coach. Yeah. Chase Brown. Impressed. He was on the regressor and press episode last year. RB 19 for the first half. RB five for the second half of the year. Yeah, he was both. He was regress. Impressed last year. He was not through five weeks. He was pretty unstartable. Correct. But he was a victim of the Joe Burrow's injury as well. Like whatever magic Jake Browning had filling in for for Joe Burrow the first time that the pixie dust wore off and it was an absolute disaster. Joe Flacco comes like I was going to say, old man, Joe Flacco comes in somehow fixes everything. And then Joe Burrow comes back and everything is great. Chase Brown is you still have to be under watch of, you know, with the drafts. I don't think that they will replace him. I, you know, there was the whispers of extension talk. That was a couple months ago. So maybe that's still going on in the background. And if they if a Chase Brown extension comes through, then it I will have no no fears. No worries. My chips will we were be all we were asked a question on the forecast yesterday of what what what would be some things that would happen this year to prove that the year of Mike is over. And this would be one of those. Like if they were to draft a replacement, you know, spend the second round pick on a running back, that would be very anti Mike. It probably won't happen. It probably I think they I think they're very committed to Chase Brown and believe in him. He played it. He played the entire season, stayed healthy, turned it on over the back half of the year. They've got so many needs on the defensive side of the football. Exactly. They, you know, last year they picked up Taj Boyd, right? Later in the draft as a he just got really no play. Got no opportunity. They the way like one thing you can be happy about with Chase Brown is that they didn't make a change at the head coach position, even though Jason wanted them to right. The plan right now is, hey, our offense is magma. Our offense is amazing. Can we fix things on the defensive side? If we waste a pick on a high end running back for no good reason, when you get this production from Chase Brown, to me, I'm going to go and press on Chase Brown. And he's he's an electric receiver. He had the fourth most targets at the running back position. And on receptions, he had the third most forced missed hackles. Now, when Mixon was there, we got the random Smoshy P Ryan adventure. Yeah. P Ryan did get re-signed. And at the end of the year, P Ryan did get some, some goal line work. Chase Brown is capable at that. You know, it's as, but as is P Ryan. So that will happen over the course of the year. But when you have the amount of work that Chase Brown gets combined with how great he is as a receiver, it's, I will have no problem drafting him wherever he's going. I agree. We're all going to be impressed here. His last 10 games, which are really the games that matter because you're talking about once they found something at the quarterback position, those last 10 games, seven of the 10, he was, he was not like, oh, he is a good week. It was top 10 weekly finishes, 70% of those games. The other three were still RB twos. It wasn't zero bad weeks during that stretch. The fact that he got off to such a slow start with the Joe Burrow injury and was so devastating. I mean, this was a guy that when you're going into week five, week sick, you're talking should, should you be dropping him? Should you cut Chase Brown at that point? And I don't think he's going to be overdrafted going into this year again. He's not going to be someone that people are crazy bullish on. There, there'll be enough fear from the first five weeks. You'll have every league will have one of 10, one of 12 people who hates Chase Brown because they drafted him last year and it didn't work. And I would love to see the numbers of the people who drafted Chase Brown and rode out the whole season with him. It didn't get to the point where there's like, this crap sucks. I'm out. This guy stinks. He'll never be good. And then they trade him or they cut him. And then the beneficiary of Chase Brown was not the drafter. No, and it was the same with Burrow and Chase. I mean, you, you, right, like those guys got moved. Jamar Chase was not a great option for five weeks with Browning. No, he was on start of Flacco Revolution saved the day. If you did, if you did draft Chase Brown, you know, those final three weeks were the final two weeks, championship and semi finals, the running back for the running back three. If you kept him the whole time, you probably weren't in the playoffs. Like he either was a real great player for someone who picked him up or he was so bad in the beginning that he hurt you and you're going to never draft him again. Kenneth Gainwell, who is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Second half of the year, he was the running back 12, kept surprising in Pittsburgh, kept becoming more and more utilized in Pittsburgh. Signs a, well, kind of used that year to sign a two year deal worth up to 14 million in Tampa. 10 million guaranteed. That's not nothing. He's 26.9 years old, entering his sixth year. He did lead the Pittsburgh Steelers in receptions. Yeah, embarrassing, which is impressive for him and embarrassing for DK Metcalf. And for the Steelers, top five organization, I don't think you ever want a running back to lead your team in receptions. And if you, and if you're running back, does lead your team in receptions. You hope it's Christian McCaffrey or someone that is like one of the best players in the league, not coming into the season, your second or third string running back. So, I mean, I feel like this is one where my instant default, easy answer is going to be regressed because you kind of had a unique situation that there wasn't a lot of weapons in Pittsburgh. You did deal with some injuries at the running back position. He became kind of integral. It seems like one of those things that would depart from fantasy value when you leave that scenario and you have, you know, all the wide receivers and tight ends and bucky Irving in Tampa, is that the side that you're going to go with? I don't think I'm fully committed to regress because he's a good player. Like those things would not have happened in Pittsburgh if he weren't showing out with talent. I mean, you, you went into that year. Jaylen Warren had just received, you know, a baby, a micro extension for, for his bank account, and then by this second half, Kenneth Gainwell had kind of overtaken him in terms of the timeshare. Kenneth Gainwell and bucky Irving is going to be extremely difficult because I don't have a strong, I don't have a strong enough conviction in bucky Irving to say this signing doesn't matter. Two years, 14 million. You know, I don't really care about Kenneth Gainwell. I do care. But bucky is also a tremendous player. It's like a conversation around bucky really. Yeah. That's yeah. I mean, obviously bucky is undersized. Could get injured. We saw him get injured last year. There's also some, you know, smoke about the mental issue, you know, hardships that that bucky has gone through. So bucky to me is a great player who is so far ahead of Kenneth Gainwell, where he will retain like Rashad White was involved last year. Rashad White played 17 games and was the running back. 34 is pretty irrelevant. If bucky Irving were to go down or out for any reason, then I do think Kenneth Gainwell is a very interesting player. But what Kenneth Gainwell did this last year was really take on a role, even when Jalen Warren was active and healthy. Kenneth Gainwell was still leading the team in receptions, was on the field all the time, was running routes. And I don't anticipate that being what they brought him in to do. They brought him in to just be a replacement of Rashad White, a backup, a spell. But he's much better than Rashad White. Yeah, but much worse than bucky Irving. I don't think he's much worse than bucky in my evaluation of it. I think he is much, much better than Rashad White. And so it's what happens when all that work that Rashad White got. What happens when it's a good player? What happens to bucky Irving then? Sure. I mean, you look at game, you look at game. Well, the runner that way or just the versatility that was really both. I mean, he's a he for his career. He's a 4.4 yards per attempt runner. I mean, Rashad White could never. He seems to endear himself to the team that he's on. That is one thing that you can say about Kenny Gainwell is that he's somebody that does all the dirty work, all the stuff that you don't see that doesn't show up in the fantasy football stat sheets. And teams end up falling in love with him and giving him more time. And that would be my concern for bucky. But it doesn't mean that I think that the fantasy value is going to be consistent for for Gainwell. I'm going to go regress. I yeah, I lean that way. But I'm curious. Do we know where Kyle, do we know where bucky is going? And like, what's the what's the the public temperature right now in bucky Irving? Because that might it might end up being a situation where I'll just be willing to miss of what bucky is going to offer. RB, no. That can't be. No, that's got to be Gainwell 37. Bucky 17. OK, OK, see that makes. Yeah, Gainwell 37. Bucky 17. Bucky at 17 seems like a pretty good. That's not bad. I'm totally willing to take the shot on. Yeah, on him there. Yeah, I don't I don't want to forget what bucky is capable of doing. But we'll see. All right, we'll take another quick break and then we'll come back. Do a couple other regress or impress. Most CRM's are clunky and slow down your team. It's time to switch to a new one. That's where Pipedrive comes in, a simple CRM for growing sales teams. See all your deals and customer info in one pipeline. It's powerful enough to grow with your business, yet simple enough for your team to love using it. Switch to Pipedrive and join over 100,000 companies. Visit Pipedrive.com forward slash audio to get started with a 30 day free trial. It's hard to concentrate when you're worried about your health. It can feel like there's a wall between you and the rest of the world, like you can't be fully present. Hello, Axa Health. How can I help? At Axa Health Insurance, we build our teams with people who care. So when you need us, we're here to support you for cover that cares. Search Axa Health Insurance. Preexisting conditions are not covered. Michael Wilson. Oh, boy. Good golly, miss. Oh, boy. Irrelevant in the first half of the year, wide receiver three over the second half of the year. Irrelevant for what, two and a half years? Yeah, that's a better way to put it. And then what year are we going into with Wilson going into year four? And then he became Jerry Rice. Yeah, yeah. When the team was throwing the ball 40 times a game with Jacobi Berset. He was the wide receiver three, 17 points a game. No Marvin Harrison on the field for the majority of that. And film wise, stats wise, advanced metric wise, separation. Ever. There was no flaw in his game. So the question is, was that the breakout or was that the opportunity of what? The Cardinals were doing and the fact that he was kind of thrust into wide receiver one territory here for the Cardinals. Yeah, and it's going to come down to how we define impress and regress here, because I don't think any of us are going to expect the performances of the second half of the year where wide receiver three or 17 fancy points a game. But I would say here's how I would define whether it's a continuing, continuous impress or he regresses back to not necessarily. He's not going to be either. He's not going to be the wide receiver 81. He's not going to be the wide receiver three. That's what you're saying. I think the best way to view it is, is he the wide receiver one for the Arizona Cardinals or is Marvin Harrison, junior, the wide receiver? Because if he if he takes hold of that and is the primary non Trey McBride receiving option for the Cardinals, then he is continued to impress. If he's not, if he takes that backup role and he's the third target on the team, you'd say he regressed from where he was. I think that he should be and he won't be. I think it's very good that Jacobi Brissette's the quarterback for Michael Wilson. But I don't think like if you because look, if we all had to place a bet today, put a hundred dollars down on the table. OK. And you click the Michael Wilson button or you click the Marvin Harrison button. Oh, and we presume health and we say what is that? What are the fantasy outcomes for those two players at the end of the year? I'm going to click Marvin Harrison's button. Oh, that's shocked you. I am as well. But I thought I was going to be the only one here because sometimes. It's just too squeaky. I think I think the targets will be there for Marvin Harrison. We're going into this is year three of Marv. Yeah. So it's year three of Marv, year four of Michael. I think I think I would put it. Not that different. No, I know. I know. Look, I think Michael Wilson showed us consistently on a weekly basis that his his talent is there, his capability is there on every level. Jason talked about the metrics right now. Marvin Harrison is the wide receiver, 33 in best ball. Michael Wilson is the wide receiver, 39 in best ball. I would expect just looking at that, I would expect both guys to outperform those numbers. Yeah, I and that doesn't mean I'm going to be happy. It doesn't mean I'm going to get a wide receiver, 15 number. But if they end 15, 18, I won't be shocked. The nice thing about the Arizona Cardinals, so I was really pouring some cold water at the end of the season, pointing out what happened to the Cardinals defense, what happened where they put Jacoby Berset in just through the ball every play. They lost every game, you know, every game that Jacoby Berset was a starter, they lost. And they threw the ball a Cajillion times. And, you know, Jacoby was on pace for like, I don't know, four thousand, five thousand yards. It was it was asinine and that wasn't going to happen again. But I am not as convinced that they're not going to just continue to air it out and need to keep up. They have signed nobody of relevance. And nor do they want to sign. And by the way, I'm saying on the defensive side of the ball. Can I just correct you, Jason? He was one in eleven. No, in games he started. I don't think he. Oh, you think he came into one and got a win? I believe so. I could be wrong. Maybe he was one in eleven and did not go winless. He might have had a win. I don't. It was really just a joke. Yeah. You know. But the Cardinals, they have done the right thing, which is sign a bunch of. Worthless one year deals. They have the most cap space going into next year. They are not going to be a competitive team. Their defense is going to continue to be bad. And with Jacoby Berset back in tow, I do think that they're for fantasy purposes. Andy, one of your things to remember this year was like bad teams really ruin good players. And I think that's so true of, you know, the the Browns and the Jets. Garrett Wilson, Breeze Hall, they're not going to. I don't know if it's the. And I know we're Cardinals fans, but I hate the Cardinals. I do think that the offense will have fantasy football relevance. You should revise it as bad offenses or just bad quarterbacks. Yeah, maybe Jacoby's not bad. He's not a he's not a long term starter, but he's not a bad quarterback. He beat he beat the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, as a starter. As a starter. He started that stand. All right, go. He started in one. He beat the Cowboys of all teams. Yeah, he did. And that defense. No, I think you could make some some tweaks. I mean, you're not like their offense was great. There's a I mean, legitimately, there's a reason why Detroit went out and got the blob fish from Arizona. And it was because of the success he had with the Cardinals had more players and injured reserve than the final four teams in the NFC playoffs combined. So the Cardinals dealt with massive injuries, fourth string running backs, no Kyla Murray, and they had a pretty dominant offense for the back half of the year in terms of production. And that's why, you know, you will have a change at the offensive coordinator. You're bringing him, you know, the floor who's going to take over. And that's going to bring some variables. But I think part of it is going to be, you know, the Cardinals have two ways to go on Marvin Harrison, it is. But staying neutral on it is not going to be one of them. You're either going to go the direction of this is not going to work here and he's going to get moved and it's not going to happen. Or you're going to go the direction of we're going to make it work. And the targets are going to be there. But but staying neutral, I don't think is going to happen. And I think that's part of the agenda agenda for the floor. Mike, who do you think has the better fantasy season between those two wide receivers? Andy and I are on the side of taking the shot on Marv. I. If I had to click the button right now, I would click Michael Wilson. OK. I. Which is it where it's so difficult for Michael Wilson is the first two years in the league, my opinion of him was he is not that good. Like he was not getting away. He was not creating separation. He was not handling his. I mean, he was just a he was like a wide receiver three type, you know, of you should be on a team, but you're nowhere near the level of a player who can take over a game and over the second half he did that. He took over games while Trey McBride is still on the team. Like where Marv. We've seen him take over. Maybe a couple times. So. It's hard to change your opinion or speaking of myself, it's hard to change my opinion of how. Bad I felt about Michael Wilson to what we saw over the second half. One more name for you. We get to talk about him forever. Kyle Pitts. Eight fantasy points a game in the first half, tied in 16, not the end of the world, but not helpful. Second half of the year, the tight end three had the greatest game for a tied end of all time in a week 15. It's really skewing the average. He also is going to you're going to hear like tied in two around Kyle Pitts name. His nine point eight fantasy points per game is the lowest ever for a tight end two. So it wasn't great for tight ends last year. And week 15, I don't know what the numbers would be. Oh, I've got. Yeah. Without the 40 point week 15, he would be he would have been seven point nine a week. And that would have been the same as Britain strange and Dalton Schultz. So you don't want to take away the ability to put up the biggest game of all time. But at the same time. You know, that's a pretty special outlier game. So like in best ball right now, going after Kyle Pitts is Sam LaPorta. Aranda Gadston, Dalton Kincaid. To get cheaper over Kyle Pitts, I think I would go that direction. I mean, the quarterback questions for Atlanta are very real. Will Pinnock's. Be healthy. Is he even good enough? And then if that's not the answer, then your solution is to how good of a solution is that? Yeah, I think I was I see it because there were some comments around to being willing to mentor Michael Pinnock's and it's like one of them's like to us 28. Pinnock's is 26. He was older. Remember? Yeah. So it's like these guys are really not that different in terms of like. But experience, they're very different. Very, very different. But also, you know, who do you think wins the job? Oh, Pinnock's. Yeah, I think Pinnock's will have the beginning of the season. The I don't know how to go from there. The issue with cow pits. I mean, the same thing we were saying about you know, I'm out. Trevor Lawrence being young. Regrets. Pits is only 25 years old. That's the argument at the end of the year. He leveled up. He showed out. They're going to come in next year with a better plan for him. He's going to figure it out. That is the argument. I know. I love studying. Let me talk you out. When you look at last season, how bad he was. And then you hit week 13 and all of a sudden he's the Titan six, the Titan seven, the Titan one, the Titan three, like just awesome. That's no Drake London. No Drake London. No Drake. That was when Drake London got injured. Yeah. So all of a sudden it became the de facto number one target for the team and then had to had to put up points. At least the de facto number two right now. Yeah, but he was the de facto two before that and he wasn't very good. Well, it's funny because you said if you took week 15 out, we'd be at seven point nine fancy points per game. His first half of the year was eight point two for the first half, which is Titan 16. So if you look at that, you know, he's going to regress from his fantasy finish at Titan for sure. Yes. He's going to regress in his fancy points per game of the second half of the year. I don't think you're getting 11.6 over the second half of the year. So, you know, I think overall, unless he is cheap, which maybe he will be, but I don't think so. I think there's a lot of reasons for people to believe in him right now. So I will be happy. I don't think I'll draft. I will be very happy to grab him for a matchup off the waiver wire. I will do that once or twice through the year. He will be there. He maybe not week one, but he'll be there. And you can grab him and play him in the right matchup. He he looks like a player at least right now of it. We bring up the phrase or the kind of the saying of like when there's certain players just I'm willing to be wrong, you know, about by drafting them, I'm willing to be wrong about cow pits of bypassing and let someone someone else, if you want to have the bravery and you want to get the reward, I accept that. Let me let me see if this final bit of information changes anything. Right now he is he's going behind behind Harold Vanden and Bestball. OK, he's going behind Tucker Kraft. He's going to come back from an injury and was really good. I think that all makes sense. The guys he's going ahead of, I don't know. Maybe I would take them ahead of them. Sam Laporta or Ronde Gadsden. Yeah, Dalton Kincaid. I think I take all three of those guys ahead of maybe not maybe not Laporta. I would rather have them than pits. I wouldn't necessarily draft them ahead over pits. Dude, I think I would. Don't get that just. I mean, don't get was Kincaid's on the pits career arc. Disappointing at least. Yes, consistent. I mean, both both guys have dealt with injury. Obviously, DJ Moore being there will be the number one target in the offense, you would presume, but that could be good for the tight end position to open it up a little bit. I think Dalton Kincaid is more talented than Kyle Pitts. Gadsden is the most exciting. Laporta is on a better offense. So there's reasons, but they're all later. And that's that's the thing that you can't miss here. It's not just overall. The offenses are better. It's not that you would draft those guys over Kyle Pitts. If Kyle Pitts was, you know, being drafted at the hundred as the 110th player where Gadsden is, but if you're telling me I can wait and take a player that, I don't know, I probably believe in in the player more in Gadsden than in pits. And I can get them in the hundreds. I'll do that. OK. Glad we get to talk about Kyle Pitts again. It's on my birthday too. I mean, that's not a big honor. Not really a gift so much as a curse. But we're going to wrap it up. Appreciate you joining us. We'll be back with a couple more episodes next week. A reminder, join the foot.com. If you want to head over there, we're going to be getting into the rookie previews. The NFL draft is really not that far away. So we're going to start talking through the quarterbacks, the running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, the names you need to know. And the players that we believe in or are starting to leave it. Boy. We are. It sounds like we believe in Pony Boy. Yeah, that's the irony of that entire segment is that I'm pretty sure it was it was a little demeaning. Well, it's just he has so many horse parts. It was all followed up by a impressive, impressive press. Yeah, dude, horses are impressive. OK. Animals. Thank you for joining us. I'm sorry, everybody. It's just who we are. We're children. We'll catch you on the next episode. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers. Most CRMs are clunky and slow down your team. It's time to switch to a new one. That's where Pipedrive comes in, a simple CRM for growing sales teams. Seal your deals and customer info in one pipeline. It's powerful enough to grow with your business, yet simple enough for your team to love using it. Switch to Pipedrive and join over 100,000 companies. Visit pipedrive.com forward slash audio to get started with a 30 day free trial. It's hard to concentrate when you're worried about your health. It can feel like there's a wall between you and the rest of the world. Like you can't be fully present. Hello, AXA Health. How can I help? At AXA Health Insurance, we build our teams with people who care. So when you need us, we're here to support you. For cover that cares, search AXA Health Insurance. Pre-existing conditions are not covered.