The Big Picture

The 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs

67 min
Jan 22, 20264 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Sean Fennessy and a co-host analyze the 2026 Oscar nominations announced early morning, discussing the record-breaking 16 nominations for 'Sinners,' surprising snubs like Chase Infinity and Park Chan-wook's film, and the competitive best picture race led by 'One Battle After Another.' They examine how the Academy's voting body—including below-the-line craftspeople—creates unpredictable yet ultimately taste-driven outcomes.

Insights
  • The Academy's paradox: demonstrates superior taste compared to other award shows yet makes unpredictable, sometimes odd choices that defy conventional wisdom
  • Non-English language films gaining best picture traction signals a fundamental shift in Academy demographics and voting priorities, though guild voting (SAG, DGA) remains US-centric
  • Campaign presence and visibility matter significantly—filmmakers actively campaigning and appearing at industry events have measurable advantages over those in production
  • The 10-film best picture slate creates a 'dartboard effect' where the final 4-5 spots feel random, suggesting a 5-film slate might create more meaningful differentiation
  • Craft voting (sound, editing, visual effects) drives best picture nominations as much as narrative merit, explaining why technically impressive films like F1 break through
Trends
Streaming platforms (Netflix, Apple) consolidating best picture nominations—Netflix now has 4 nominations across two filmsInternational cinema gaining institutional recognition with multiple non-English language films in best picture despite guild resistanceCasting becoming a new category signals Academy interest in recognizing ensemble work and discovery, though voting patterns remain opaqueElectronic/contemporary music scores being systematically overlooked in favor of classical orchestral scores—Lopatin, Resner/Ross, Jafar Panahi all snubbedLate-release strategy proving effective for best picture contention (Sentimental Value, Secret Agent) despite lower box office performanceBox office discourse influencing Academy perception—F1's commercial success cited as justification despite narrative/performance weaknessesRepresentation discourse creating backlash against films perceived as benefiting from identity politics rather than merit (Sinners discourse)Original Screenplay category becoming the 'true taste' indicator where Academy recognizes bold filmmaking over commercial appealBelow-the-line recognition driving best picture slots—films strong in cinematography, editing, sound get elevated even with weaker acting/writingPrecursor voting (SAG, Golden Globes) becoming too predictive, reducing surprise and engagement in final Oscar race
Topics
2026 Oscar Nominations AnalysisBest Picture Race PredictionsInternational Film Recognition at OscarsAcademy Voting Body DemographicsStreaming Platform Oscar StrategyCampaign Effectiveness in Awards SeasonBest Actress Category SnubsOriginal Screenplay vs Best Picture AlignmentCinematography and Production Design RecognitionDocumentary Branch PredictabilityOriginal Score Category BiasBest Supporting Actor/Actress RacesBox Office vs Critical Merit in Oscar VotingNon-English Language Film RepresentationBelow-the-Line Craft Voting Impact
Companies
Netflix
Secured two best picture nominations (Change Rooms, another film), marking increased streaming platform presence in m...
Neon
Distributor of Sentimental Value and Secret Agent; achieved two best picture nominations plus four international feat...
Focus Features
Distributor with two best picture nominations in the 2026 race
Warner Brothers
Studio with two best picture nominations; potential merger with Netflix discussed as concerning for industry consolid...
Searchlight Pictures
Notable absence from best picture race for first time in long period after films like Rental Family and Springsteen D...
Paramount Pictures
Received zero best picture nominations in 2026 race, significant decline from historical presence
Shutter
Streaming platform distributing The Ugly Stepsister, a makeup and hair styling nominee
Apple
Streaming platform with documentary nominee The Good Light currently available on service
People
Timothy Chalamet
Best Actor nominee for Marty Supreme; discussed as potential Leo DiCaprio parallel—talented young actor nominated but...
Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actor nominee for One Battle After Another; presumptive favorite with 13 nominations for his film
Chase Infinity
Notable snub from Best Actress despite strong performance in One Battle After Another; discussed as category fraud issue
Jesse Buckley
Best Actress frontrunner for Rose Burn; described as having steamrolled through awards season
Kate Hudson
Best Actress nominee for Sung Blue; criticized as wrong kind of Oscar nostalgia pick over Chase Infinity
Scar Guadagnino
Director of Sentimental Value; film received four acting nominations and strong recognition across categories
Park Chan-wook
Filmmaker whose acclaimed film was completely snubbed despite being third favorite of 2025; never nominated for inter...
Paul Thomas Anderson
Director of Frankenstein; locked for Best Director and Adapted Screenplay nominations; expected to win both
Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actor nominee for Sinners; part of record-breaking 16-nomination film
Ethan Hawke
Best Actor nominee; part of strong male acting category described as best in Academy Awards history
Wagner Moro
Actor in Sentimental Value; example of international actor overlooked by SAG despite American TV work (Narcos)
Delroy Lindo
Best Supporting Actor nominee; longtime industry veteran finally recognized after decades of work; former podcast guest
Amy Madigan
Best Supporting Actress nominee for Weapons; described as overdue recognition for beloved industry veteran
Jafar Panahi
Filmmaker of Just An Accident; Palm d'Or winner snubbed from best picture but nominated for original screenplay
Joseph Kosinski
Director of F1; praised for craft mastery and ability to bring together technical teams despite narrative weaknesses
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Director of Sentimental Value; filmmaker whose work received strong Academy recognition across multiple categories
Ari Aster
Director of Weapons; film received one nomination despite critical acclaim and creative ambition
Jack Fisk
Production designer for Marty Supreme; longtime nominee who has never won; discussed as deserving winner
Darius Khondji
Cinematographer with three Oscar nominations; nominated for Marty Supreme; described as one of greatest living cinema...
Renata Reinsva
Best Actress nominee for Sentimental Value; one of four acting nominations for the film
Quotes
"The Academy Awards continues to be an amazing paradox in that the body still continues to exhibit ultimately the best taste of any award show and any precursor historically, but also still does really weird stuff."
Sean FennessyEarly in episode
"In 2026, I go with my gut. That's I have to just go with my gut. You've been saying that for a decade."
Co-hostF1 discussion
"This is silly. Like this. I'm sorry. This is a silly nomination. It's fine. I understand we want to honor the box office. You know, it's big and it is very loud."
Co-hostF1 best picture discussion
"Can't mom and dad have fun? Can't the Academy have fun too every once in a while?"
Sean FennessyF1 defense
"Stop posting and start believing."
Co-hostFinal takeaway
Full Transcript
I'm Sean Fennese and this is the big picture in conversation show about the 2026 Academy Award nominations. It's 7.52 a.m. It's two hours and 22 minutes after we learn what's going to be nominated for the Academy Awards. How do you feel right now? Good morning. That's way earlier than I'm used to wearing eyeshadow. But here we are. You look great. Thanks so much. I feel good. Honestly, these are both historic nominations in the sense that sinners got 16 nominations the most ever. Casting was added this year, but still 15. Still would have broken the record. It's sinners wins, big tie or sinner gets a lot of nominations. I see about the ones. We'll get to that. And then also these nominations were a bit cookie and I got to be honest, I like it. Yeah, I thought they were pretty pretty good collection. They're good but a little okay. Pretty interesting. One of the things that popped in my mind this morning is that the Academy Awards continues to be an amazing paradox in that the body still continues to exhibit. I think ultimately the best taste of any award show and any precursor historically, but also still does really weird stuff. Sometimes it's unpredictable and sometimes it's just a little bit odd and doesn't feel right. So you mentioned center 16 nominations. This year we have this kind of bundle, this heavy grouping of heavily nominated films, which we talked about yesterday in our live predictions IG. I don't know what you want to call that. 58 minute excursion into and or a question. And and or puns. Yes. Yeah. So six films of A plus nominations. The next highest nominated film is of course one battle after another with 13 nominations, which hit everywhere except one critical place, which we will talk about in this conversation. Frankenstein got nine. Yeah. Marty Supreme got nine, although missed in a couple of spots that I expected it to. Sentimental value got eight and ham that also got eight. What do you make of this like heavy grouping of films? Well, as we discussed yesterday, it's a top heavy race. And we've felt pretty certain about the top five for the top six. Since December, I guess things have been moving in and out a little bit, but December, that was very clear. And then it was really just like throwing darts at a dartboard for the last four. And it does feel like the last four nominations also have a bit of like a dartboard feel to them. You know, we discussed yesterday that maybe this is a year where the old school just five nominations could have fit. Yes. And made things a bit more interesting. But on the other hand, I do think that that would have some below the line consequences. And if you only had five, then maybe the secret agent wouldn't have like the, you know, the running that it has here. I don't know if Marty Supreme would go in the same way. So it's, you know, it's weird. Again, I think that it is a little bit like your, you know, your funny aunt like picked some of the nominations, but they're worse things. Yeah, there are. We had speculated yesterday that there might be as many as five films with 10 plus nominations, maybe even 11 plus nominations. We overstated that. So it wasn't, those films weren't as strong as we expected. And there were a couple of categories that were incredibly difficult for us to predict. But let's, let's talk about best picture in full because we've spent months and months power ranking films trying to figure out where this race was going. Not to powder ourselves on the back too much, but I think we've had a pretty good handle on this race, especially in the last two months. And here are the nominees, Bagonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, one battle after another, the secret agent, sentimental value, sinners and train dreams. Now nine of those 10 films have effectively been in our race for the last few months. Yes. We added Sarat in the last best picture power rankings. It was Bagonia in our last. It was. It was. It was. We've been holding Bagonia because it's been getting recognized at precursors and gemstone, who was nominated today, though not just the plemins, but Bagonia got in some other places. It got in an original score. It got in in adapted screenplay. Well, discuss that. So the big takeaways from this race, obviously, those six films that you talked about were locked and loaded sentimental value was as strong as I basically thought the whole time. Yes. But even though it seemed a little weaker at SAG, at the globes, at a couple of other places where we expected it to do better, you surprised by that at all? No, I believe that I said yesterday on the Instagram live, which can now be found via Reels. I don't know. Sure. It lives on. Go to my real face. I think sentimental value is very strong. It's an Oscar movie. In fact, it was stronger even than I predicted yesterday. But the way that I came to that conclusion was going through all the below the line categories. I mean, like, no, actually, I do think it's going to get each of these support, these acting nominations. I do think it's going to get screenplay. I do think it's going to get this, that and the other. So no, not surprised. You, I think in June, maybe July, I saw the film in August. And when I saw it in August, I said, I think this is going to win best picks. You texted me that we can find it. I think my text message is delayed after six months. So I don't know whether I have the receipt, but you do. Yeah. That's very even hunt of you. Never keep any archives. Okay. Understood. I can't say I'm doing the same thing. Unfortunately, please don't find my text messages. Sentimental value, very strong here. Perhaps a little surprisingly, you could tell when Lewis Pullman and Daniel Brooks came on to announce the nominations that in the first category for best supporting actress, when we saw the names L fanning and Inga, it's not her lilyus, we were like, okay, and L fanning was the first name, right? It was. So it said the tempo. Yeah. You know what? She's been campaigning hard. She seems to be having a lot of fun at all the parties. I have been saying, I think she's terrific in that movie and that scene between her and Stella and Scar's gardener, and the end of the film where they're sitting in a nook talking before she makes a critical decision in the film. I think it's one of the great scenes in that film and one of the best scenes of the year between the both of them. So I'm not surprised to see that happen. Let's talk about F1. Yeah. Well, you fucked up, buddy. It's not the same you. The thing is that most people haven't seen the IG live. So pretty much every note I've been getting today is like, you've been on this. You nailed it. And then of course, as I always do at the last minute, after saying for five months that I really think F1 could get in the best picture. I blinked. I predicted weapons. My rationale was so sound, right, which is that the Academy Awards has never nominated three non-English language films for best picture ever. They love to get a couple of popcorn movies in. There's always a film that has a number of below the line or craft strength like your avatar or the way of water. And then I didn't predict. You got halfway there. And we are really we're going to go back in the archives. I believe it was October when you started predicting this. It could have been sooner. But to bring people behind the scenes. So the denominations are announced like 530 PST here. So we both wake up. And the communication doesn't immediately start. Yes. And you know, like for the you know, you're drinking your coffee or just kind of watching and silence or I was watching and silence. I was hootin and holler and after every nomination, waking up my four-year-old. Then you know, and like there are things I want to tell you. But I'm like, I'm saved for the podcast, saved for the podcast, saved for the podcast. And the NF one broke the seal. That was when I just was like, lol, I'm sorry. This is you, you just you screwed up. Here's the thing. In 2026, I go with my gut. That's I have to just go with my gut. You've been saying that for a decade. I have to stop thinking this stuff. It's pathetic because I knew I feel like I knew when I saw F1. I was like, this kind of has the shape of the of a movie that the Oscars, no matter what is happened in the last 10 years with the voting body. They love this shit. And F. Kuzinsky has proven himself to be a really, really admired filmmaker. Somebody who like brings together craft groups so well. You do not have to tell me. We liked it. What a lot. We talked about it. Okay. All right. Listen, you so you were correct. And we've accepted. Then you weren't. And you don't you never have the trick. I'm thinking your collections. I thought it could have been could have been a good feet. We'll get to weapons. But I just I want to speak to F1 for a second, which I really admire the work of Joseph Kuzinsky as documented on this podcast. This is silly. Like this. I'm sorry. This is a silly nomination. It's fine. I understand we want to honor the box office. You know, it's big and it is very loud. I think it shows you something that makes to me the Oscars different from all the other shows. Yeah. Which is that the Oscars is voted on by this big group of people, many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing. All the people who are voting for sound and editing and visual effects. These people vote on best picture. And so they have a tremendous amount of admiration for what he does there. Now script wise, I don't think F1 is that strong performance wise. It's okay. It's not my favorite bread. The performance as we talked about. But that's not the only thing that goes into making movies. So I'm not going to like denigrate that movie when you look at the history of best because there were so many of course, best picture nominees that are like elegant dramas that are boring as shit. And F1 is not boring. Excuse me. What? They're beautiful. And they also love crap goes into that. We can go through the most boring best picture nominations at some point in the future. But to me, it's it's an interesting nomination that shows balance basically. Now, do you think that neon overplayed their hand in trying to get three or four non-English language films into this? I mean, what is overplaying their hands? They got two and they did get two. And they got four out of five in international feature. It's a small company. I think sentimental values incredibly strong. So I don't think you could say that they spread the wealth at the expense of one film. I like. Well, maybe no other choice, but sure. Well, sure. Yeah. And that sucks. No other choice. Totally blanked. Totally blanked. What a mistake. And do you want to whether they saw that coming because of like the release date schedules? It's funny. I feel like that film got a lot of campaign support from neon and and Park Chan Woo can leave in a hunt. We're out a lot over the last couple of months. Yeah. And that has resulted in really good box office for that film. But for whatever reason, and maybe it has something to do with the WGA issue that Park Chan Woo cad last year, I'm not sure what it is. But the Academy is not into his films. He's never been nominated. He's never been an international feature. That movie is one of the most acclaimed films of the year. It was my third favorite movie of 2025. And it's not here. It's like probably the the second biggest complete snub. Yeah. Today there is another one that was completely snubbed, which is wicked for good. And you know, I think we're probably quietly delighting a little bit in the next movie stinks. And I didn't think wicked one was very good. And it obviously did quite well in crafts at the Oscars last year. And this year, it missed in some key categories and missing categories that at one last year, no song nominations, no Ariana Grande, no Cynthia, or even nothing. I'm relieved. We just we don't have to pretend that we care about this or that there's there's like hidden merit in whatever, which there is. And it was rewarded for the merit last year. Right. And the new installment was not very good. And we don't enjoy that musical. Is there anything else happening here in Best Picture that surprised you or that you took note of, you know, obviously there was a moment where it felt like Sirot could get in. Right. There, you know, obviously know their choices. And here blue moon didn't make it. And when I saw the original screenplay nomination for blue moon, I thought, oh, here we go. Maybe this could happen. Maybe that could be in a slot where like the secret agent might go, for example, but the secret agent made it. The secret agent was is pretty strong here. Never doubt Brazil. Okay. Got it. Yeah. Secret agent and casting. Yes. Yes. And I guess that's when I knew that the secret agent was definitely going to make it into Best Picture. Yeah. I still don't totally understand that because sentimental value. I mean, this casting is not best cast, right? It's casting. It's the act of casting. It's the work that goes in. Yes. As someone helpfully explained yesterday in the comments, cast ink. That being said, sentimental value has four best acting nominations, but did not get casting. That's kind of strange, including a legitimate discovery in India. It started with this. Yes. So I, you know, I think it's really cool that the secret agent got best cast because it is there's an ensemble quality to it. And there are a lot of smaller parts, Donia, Sebastiana, you know, not nominated as sporting actress, but the that they found a lot of people. Yeah. Like there's a lot of cleverness in it. It would appear, you know, the late Udo here having that small role as the German man living in Brazil. Like there's obviously real invention. I'm not trying to denigrate the casting and secret agent. It's very good. It's a new category. We don't understand how they how they make the decisions. There's a bake off element to it apparently where they do a presentation. But, you know, we only have these five nominations to glean from. Do you think those bake off should be made public? Yeah. I feel like they should just go on the YouTube channels. Yeah. Why not? I don't feel like it would be a good thing. I'm not sure. I mean, just keeping things secret and away from the public. I guess so. It could be letting them letting the public decide what were the best bake offs and then measuring that against what gets nominated. No, no, no, no, no, no, that's two people's choice awards. We can like, we can, you know, make a process available. No, I don't mean that we would get a say just that we could criticize them for choosing their own share based on the quality of the bake off. We do that anyway. Okay. Couple things about the studio's invest picture. Netflix got two films. Just really nice to see change rooms. That was another dream that I've been holding on to for 12 months. I saw the film today is of course the first day of the Sundance film festival. The last time it will be in Park City. I saw this movie one year ago. I was really moved by it. You saw it 11 months later. You were really moved by it. It's beautiful. It's just a straight up good best picture nomination. It's a really good film made by really good people and I'm really happy about that. For I can sign less so nevertheless, focus has two nominations here. Warner Brothers has two nominations here. For the first time in a very long time, Searchlight does not have a movie. Testament of An Lee also fully blanked. Yeah. Unfortunately, that was a late addition to their best picture lineup after films like rental family and Springsteen Deliver Me from nowhere. Didn't click with audiences or voters. And is this thing on? And is this thing on? Right. A movie that has been forgotten already. Not by me. You know, a fairly even balance. You don't love the idea of Netflix buying Warner Brothers and then having four best picture nominations. But I guess we'll talk about that more in the future. We were also talking about a world in which Neon had four nominations. Not to both sides. But these things can still be a little random. Yes. How many nominations did Paramount get? Zero. Zero. Let's talk about snubs. Yeah. Snubs, of course, say word that is... This is a place for our feelings. It's a word that is lacking in describing what we mean. Yeah. I'll give you an example. The probably the most notable and most mocked race was in best actress where Chase Infinity has been in that race for a very long time for her role in one battle after another. She didn't get in. No. Kate Hudson got in. Yeah. Her song sung blue. A movie that I like. Yes. And a performance that I like. Yes. But I think I like Chase Infinity more. However, as I mentioned to you yesterday, Chase Infinity is not a leading performance in that movie. She's an ending performance. She's the most critical person at the end of the film. But she's in roughly one third of the film. So as previously stated, I do not care about category fraud. This is all made up. Everything that we're doing. Yeah. The voters may have to listen. With respect to you and your opinions with respect to almost famous to 10 things, not 10 things I hate about you had to lose a guy in 10 days, which is not aged well. We just going to start naming all of Kate Hudson's movies. Fabletics. Yeah. Which did you know what Fabletics is? Is that her line of workout wear? Yes. It is. Sure. And Kate Hudson who seems like a cool hang. She does. She should not be here. Like I'm sorry. You guys, I were all wilding on this one. This is it's the wrong kind of Oscar nostalgia. You know, like remember what everybody, it's like Shirley's Theron and Monster Light Light. You know? Sure. I would know is what I say to this. I know. I would have. I think I would have preferred honestly Amanda Siford over Chase Infinity and Kate Hudson. I would have accepted that. That to me is a totalizing performance. That is a person at the middle of the movie who holds the movie together. That is a true, best actress performance. But that movie obviously is not resonating. I do think, you know, it's one battle after another got 13 nominations is the presumptive favorite as our favorite movie of the year. We've barely talked about it this morning. We really stopped talking about it in a word season. And I do think that it's unfair to nominate everybody else in the cast and underate Chase Infinity's performance. She stands up and goes toe to toe with all of these very big performances. And she is the emotional heart of it, along with Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think that you can get the same Leo performance if you don't have Chase Infinity bounce off of. So I think it's a bummer. I think those are great points. I agree with you. She knows to know is La Sean Penn and owning those scenes. Yeah. So yeah, that's a big one. Yeah. Very little weapons. Just one nomination for weapons. Right. You know, you took your swing. You like to have a little fun. You're sick. You know, I like weapons. You know, you can hear me on the fly. I also like talking about weapons for the fun movie. I like it with the children run like this with their hands back. Which is also how you sleep. I don't know if you've noticed or do they run out. They run out. They run out of this. Imagine if I slept like this. That would be weird. That would be it hard to share a bed with me. I'm on the other. It's gonna say. I know experience by. I just want to say I knew this. I knew this in my gut. And the one of the one of the things that I know talk us through it. Talk us through. Let's go. I'll tell you what I might when I said was second guessing myself and I was doing the weapons prediction. Mm-hmm. Not just for this but for original screenplay where I also predicted it didn't get in was that Craig are is making Resident Evil. He's not campaigning. They're not doing screenings. He's not out in the world doing interviews talking about his movie because he's making a movie. He's a only filmmaker that is nominated that it was up for anything that whose film was recognized here who's in the middle of making a movie. That matters. It really matters how much you campaign how present you are for this sort of thing. Zach is also a really congenial handsome cool guy. He would do really well in these environments. But he's just not there. So I think that that heard him a little bit. That being said, weapons is a movie in which an old witch has the flesh torn from her body. So it's also not a classic Oscar film. Sure. But the old witch performance was nominated. It was. And that is in part because Amy Madigan has been places. And Amy Madigan is also very loved and it's a little bit. It's like a it's her time light situation. Very much. And this is I feel like the good type of Oscars in Salta. I agree. So I accept that. I would have been happy to see weapons in original screenplay. And I think in best picture over F1 for sure. I mean, weapons to me is a better pick than F1 for your box office. Of course I agree. And that was my wish casting is I ultimately just like weapons a lot more. And if we're going to be in if it's going to be a new academy, I'd like it to be a little bit more progressive in terms of what it's like kind of box office and crafts love is. But you can understand why F1 as I said because it's it's recognizing three other categories here. Yeah. When was the last time that you watched F1? Oh, I rewatched it when I bought the 4k. Okay. I really enjoyed it. Yeah. Good. I mean, I I agree with you. It's flawed. I'm not saying it's not flawed. We turned it on while my husband was building the mini kitchen that Sarah J. Brott for Christmas. And it you know, it was not maybe the intended setting in which to watch the movie. But that did expose some rickety elements of it. Yeah, much like the mini kitchen. You know, just barely held together. If you have an 85 inch well, oh LED television and you're watching it in 4k, it holds its power, I would say. Yeah, if you're watching it like, you know, on a VCR like it's a good it's not really going to work. Well, you have a VCR home, right? You have F1 on VHS. Okay. Do I'm a collector? Let's talk about it was just an accident. Yeah. Because I guess that's the elephant in the room. It's something that I think we both were sort of feeling like could miss and best picture. Yes, I predicted it, but I you know, I was like, we'll see. And that was a little bit of wish casting. I think that this is the shame. I think this is an excellent film that has been kind of just overlooked. Yeah, it's unusual. It's the first Palm Door winner to not be nominated for best picture since 2021 win to 10 missed the movie that never had a chance to be the best picture. But it did get original screenplay and of course got an international feature. Right. I'm fascinated by the international feature race because you've got secret agent and sentimental value in best picture. And yet I could still see a world in which it was just an accident. Winds that a war in part because it's not in best picture. The sort of like Argo win after the afloch best director, snow kind of thing. Yeah. That feels like a possibility as an opportunity to get to Farpanahey on stage just to talk about what's happening in the world and his perspective and his his experience as an Iranian dissident. So it's sad and yet screenplay is that's a good nomination for a film like this. And if this film hadn't kind of been elevated in the public consciousness by the Palm Door, if a film like it was just an if any Jafar Panahey movie gets an original screenplay nomination, you'd be like, you have to celebrate that. That's a really cool thing. So it's kind of mixed emotions. I would say about this one. Yeah. I can't game out how it wins is the issue and how how you get to Farpanahey on stage, which I think is something that is important for filmmaking and the world. And and and I think like would be who the academy, but you know, original screenplay that comes at the expense of of Kugler, which I think really, which is who I'm still picking though I'm getting a little nervous because I think he's winning. I think he has to I think that's the only place where they're going to be able to get him on stage. Exactly. Yeah. But then, you know, where is sentimental value? I guess is is telling scars guard the only one for sentimental value that feeling feels a little strange probably. So but don't you think that they're going to want to get the okay, you're on the stage. I mean, I guess not. I don't know. So my gut is that secret agent will win international. I think you're right. Scar's guard will win supporting actor. We can get to that category momentarily. And it was just an accident will not have any representation at the show. That's what just happened at the Golden Globes. And part of my crankiness about the Golden Globes was this feels super duper predictive of the Oscars. And that's just less fun. Yeah. It doesn't mean that the Globes has bad taste. Their taste is too good now. And that's part of why there's like, there are some some prize here and there's some cool stuff that the Oscars did and some weird stuff that they did. But there's nothing truly stunning because we've now seen. Well, we reserve the right to be totally wrong. We might have a crazy series of results on March 15th. Nevertheless, let's keep going through this. No Guillermo del Toro investor actor. Yeah. I went five for five and director. You did. I did. You did. Congratulations. Thank you so much. I'm proud and excited. Congratulations, Josh Safti. This was the opposite for me of what I was trying to do with weapons where it was like I was afraid. Yes. I didn't think Josh Safti would be nominated here because I did because I believed well, he got into DGA, which is of course very strong. And as you said, there's always four out of five that get in there. But in this is this is this five out of five? No, because don't know. I was DGA and you're right. The tree or when in over del Toro, which is fascinating. We've heard a lot told you you did. Well, you can't rub it in too much. I just said I just said a mental value as well. That's I mean, that's what I meant. Yeah. No, it was it was it's very strong. But I'm I'm really happy for Josh. Obviously, this was an extraordinary effort by them to get this movie made movie success. They've got to be feeling like they they played this right all the way down the late release date, the Timothy Shalamy marketing thing. The way that Safti has been selling the movie publicly has been very successful. When when best supporting actress was announced and Odessa a Zion mist. Yeah. And then Daniel Lopatin mist and score, which we're going to get to. We will talk about it. I was like, Oh, no, they're not going from already. Marty's going to get like three nominations. And that didn't turn out to be okay. It worked out. It worked out really well. They got editing. They got screenplay. Josh got in a director, you know, aside from obviously a custom design, costume design, a lot of interesting spots for that movie. So it's kind of where it's strong and where it's not strong. It was kind of fascinating. But obviously PTA, Cougula and enclosure, that has been kind of locked in place for many months. And Trier is a good one. I think Trier, who is nominated for screenplay in 2022 for the worst person in the world. I think his the filmmaking of that movie was a little bit overlooked. And I think there's like a kind of montage oriented style that he is developed over time. It is really interesting. So I'm really happy about that nomination as well. But you know, none of the Park Chan looks the Jafar Pina. He's Deltoro's mist. What do you make of that? Anything notable around that? Because Frank has done it pretty well. Yeah. I mean, he got screenplay. Frankenstein has plenty of representation. And it is also like among the crafts, all the people, you know, you know, it's handmade. They spend so much time. They did. I, I, we've heard a lot about that. So I'm rolling my eyes, but they did spend a lot of time. And so I think it was honored where it's honored. And then people made interesting choices. I feel pretty comfortable with it. It's interesting that the movie is recognized for having a good screenplay, but not for being well direct, not as well direct. But you have 10 slots for screenplay. That's what it is. Okay. We already mentioned no other choice totally blank. Sorry, baby, totally blank. Was disappointed by that. Thought there was an outside chance. Did we both predict it in original? We did. And we believe in the power of Julia Roberts. Not quite. Yeah. Maybe if it was a little sooner, she could have gotten more people to see that film. I mentioned Daniel Lopat and not getting in from Marty's Supreme. Yeah. Let's talk about original score now. Sanctions. My guy, Jerskin Fendrix got in for Bagonia. Yeah. And it appears that he took the, the one spot that could have been held for Daniel Lopat and from Marty's Supreme. So no Marty's Supreme. This comes a year after no Trent Resner and Atticus Ross for challengers. Yes. This body, this voting group is a is on notice. It's past notice. Well, I mean, let's talk about what's happening here because Sarat was not nominated either. Yeah. And what that tells you is that electronic music is not where this group leans. This voting group is a classical group. The idea of Alexander Desplots work for Frank and Sun being recognized here after many, many nominations. Yeah. You know, obviously Ludwig Orin's and I think kind of like makes that complex. You know, because he's using a lot of different styles and he, you know, he's going to win in this category. He's a total master. Yeah. But, you know, this sucks. Well, you mentioned no challengers and, and no Sarat and no Lopat and, and I don't, I actually don't know like I has film scores like kind of like the shape and tone of them change over time. How can the body maybe more adequately reflect the shifting styles is something that's interesting? On the other hand, like train dreams isn't here either and that's a kind of like more traditional score that you might find. But Goggi is a, is a weird score. It is very orchestral, very string based, very, yeah, a lot of brass, but it's so weird. Right. It's, it's more, you know, Philip Glass, Jenna and like, you know, more avant garde, like modern avant garde still a class call as opposed to, you know, people who used to be on pitchfork. Right. Yeah, I, I, I would have liked to be on pitchfork. I don't really know what's going on on pitchfork. You have to subscribe now. I see. You can't tell me. I think it's, it's owned by Kahn and asked. I know. Yeah. Which still will not give me an all access pass. I say, so despite the free work that I've done for them for going on 15 years. I'm not sure if they're totally aware of that free work. The fact checkers are, they call me. Oh, that's a good point. Um, yeah. pitchfork. I used to right there. I wrote there for years, six years, seven years. Yeah. Great experience. I wouldn't be where I am today without pitchfork. Yeah. Different ownership. Um, I, I think this is an abomination that Daniel Patton was not. Abomination. I'm, I'm this, I wrote in all caps. Original score committee. You are on notice. Okay. Uh, I know you guys gotta have some meetings. My favorite score of the year. Okay. Interestingly, Johnny Greenwood still hasn't won and pretty much has no chance to win this year. And this is, to me, this is my favorite of his scores, which I mentioned in the past. Uh, okay, let's talk about documentary real quick. So this is a hard category to predict. Yes. We did our absolute pest and we're still pretty wrong. Okay. Yeah. You've put this in snubs and I put it under what the fucks? Right. So is it a snubber? Is it a what the fuck? Well, because I just, and it was the last one and all I wrote was whatever is going on with a documentary branch, comma, again, I find it hard to have a strong opinion about this because I haven't even seen two of the nominees here. And so I'm not going to pretend as though I have a definitive point of view about it. I do think Laura Poitrus' cover up her portrait of Seymour Hershey not being here is unfortunate. I'm not surprised that it didn't get in ultimately because it feels more like what gets left out now. Okay. Seymour Hershey is not Michael J. Fox. But it is a portrait of a man. Yeah. And a well-known person. And the branch is just not as interested in that as it is issues oriented or kind of dramatic portraits of the world in struggle. And so the nominees in this category are the Alabama solution which I predicted come Seymour and the Good Light which neither of us predicted, which is on Apple right now if you want to watch it. Cutting through rocks which I have not seen. Yeah. Which neither of us predicted. Mr. Nobody gets Putin which you predicted. I did. And then the perfect neighbor which is probably the most watch documentary of the year is on Netflix. Netflix probably struggled to get to candidates in alongside cover up. And perfect neighbor is interesting. I think we probably should have a conversation about it and maybe this whole category to movie that when I first saw it I really liked it. And I filmed it candidly when the more I read about it and the more criticism I read about it, the more misgivings I had about its approach. I think it's simultaneously a very vital and important film. But one in which it's the way in which it was made makes me a little queasy. And so I maybe we can save some space for that in February to talk through it a little bit more. It does feel like it is the front runner in this category because of the number of people who will have seen it. It is very watchable in a way that some of these others are now this category leaves the branch and everybody will vote for it. Right. So something like cutting through rocks will probably have less views ultimately than something like the perfect neighbor. But we shall see. So the WTF nature of it is I'm generally agree with you which is just like I don't know how to predict this race and I know how to predict predict like every other race. I've kind of given up predicting it. And certainly trying to watch everything to make an educated decision. It's too hard. You know what the short list? It doesn't really help because you don't know where things are going to go. Like 20,000 meters to in Driftka, the Ukrainian film, like I just assumed that that was going to be there because the filmmakers previous film was recognized by the Academy and it's a very powerful, vital movie. And it's not here. So it's like I don't I actually don't just don't know how to do it. And that's fine. That's actually a good thing. I think to not have everything be so predictable. Let's talk about surprises. Yeah. Because surprise I think is Delroy Linda. It's wonderful. It's great news. One of the best actors alive. A former guest on this show. He came on this show because he was campaigning for DeFi floods during COVID. And I'd forgotten that. It's a wonderful interview for longtime Spike Lee and Congo fans such as myself. I have a lot of Delroy Linda stock. I did not think he would get recognized here, but it is a kind of classical Oscar nomination where even if someone is overlooked in precursors, if they have a really strong body of work and they're really liked inside the industry, they will have a chance to order. Linda was not just been working in film. He's working in television for a long time on what's that show? The spin off of the CBS show that Julianne Margulese was on. Oh right. Okay. The good wife, but not the good wife, then the next one with Baranski. Correct. Hold on. I'm sorry to the TV lovers. I just don't want to say show. But he's been on that show for a long time. He's a good fight. The good fight. Yes. An industry veteran, a terrific actor. My favorite performance of his is probably in the movie, Clockers. He's excellent in centers. He has that great moment where he's telling the story in the car in centers that is like your classic clip real moment. He did come with the expensive of some people you want to talk about supporting? I mean, he came at the at the expense quote-unquote of Paul Muscle, which who will be fine. He will be fine. Yeah. Paul McCartney. And I hope he'll still be there at the show. I don't really care. Well, I don't know. Jesse Buckley says such nice things to him whenever she's on stage that you know, I would like her to say nice things to me. Sure. He's very he's reactive. Like he's a good front or second row Oscar. He's a young star. He's a true young star. But he was overlooked here. Yeah. And that's okay. I agree. I think it's okay. I think it's great to tell where Lendo's in the other people in this category are Benicio del Toro. Of course, Jacob, a Lordy Sean Penn and Stella and Scar's Garden. Yeah. Feels like a Lordy versus Scar's Garden. And I do feel that the one battle guys are going to be splitting the vote. I think you're right. I think it's a bummer. It's interesting. You never know though. You never know. I'll be so excited if they say Benicio del Toro. I might be banging the drum for Delroy Lindo. Okay. Can we make that happen? Why not? I mean, there's this 16 nomination. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. And and I still in Scar's Garden and Delroy Lindo are basically in the same spot. Neither have ever been nominated. They're both and I think they're both in their 70s. They're both tremendously admired. They've contributed a lot to very discrete movements in cinema. And this is a long overdue thing. So it's fascinating to see them both in this category together. That's great. This is a good category. I like it's not the best category. We'll talk about the best category, but it's a really, really good collection. I'm really, really like four out of five. Okay. Yeah. Um, you hate Sean Penn. It was. It's not that I hate him. You know, it's great to have someone just like smoking on camera in the middle of the Golden Globe. Yeah. But he just looks like Wiley Coyote like exploded by TNT in every award show and interview he does. I would have used that spot for something else. Okay. Let's talk about best actress in a supporting role because one of the other big surprises is we mentioned was our fan and getting a winner. I think it's a great one. So two nominees in sentimental value in this category along with Inga. We mentioned Amy Madigan. We have not mentioned one. Me and Misaku. Yes. You predicted. I did. Um, and I did notice more and more pundits getting around to the idea of predicting her in the last two weeks or so despite not being like she was nominated at the Globes. She hasn't really won very many precursors. Right. But she was in critics choice and she was nominated at at sag at sag. Yes. Even though she held on to that, even though sag just completely ignored sentimental value and seemingly all and secret agent international. Yes. Uh, we're non English speaking roles. Okay. Whatever, guys. What do you think that matters? Sag or well, I know that sag is effectively not predictive. If your film is not in English and that's fine. We can accept that as somebody who follows this stuff really closely. Is it important? Like sag is an American guild. There are international members. But like I think about this all the time with like DGA and PGA and kind of what is their role in terms of what are they represent? Because the academy has like tilted this stuff so hard where all of a sudden now, you know, the secret agent is just like absolutely competing in best picture. Yeah. Never. It's happened so rarely. That's an interesting thing. But these guilds then they don't seem they seem more representative of American filmmaking. But not totally. We're like sometimes they'll tilt in a certain direction. Yeah. On certain things where you'll be like, okay, so like sentimental value got in it PGA. It didn't really make any money at the box office. It was produced outside of this country. It's obviously a great movie and it's an act of producing, I suppose. Right. Why is that more significant than what the secret agent or it was just an accident? You know what I mean? Where it's like, there's something kind of confusing about what is really being graded and where and why that I find interesting. It's not a negative. It's developing thing that is happening in this space. I mean to your question of does it matter? I think not not at all in the sense that these are all made up. Right. What is what is the purpose of these awards is the purpose to be predictive than I think it does? That's not what's in their mission state. Right. But so what is it? Honor the best in the thing that they do. I guess so. But why are they honor? I don't know. What is the point of that? You know, the Sagawords has been telling the fact that they will be on Netflix this year. So they clearly want like the largest audience possible, which would mean a global audience and Netflix obviously has an international reach. But so if you're going to do that and then it pretends that you only have English speaking, you know, mostly American actors, it's not a long-term strategy I would say. Well, it jumps out obviously because of the four nominations for sentimental value in acting, including Ellen Inga and Renata Ransva and Scar's card. But to me the biggest example of it is Wagner Moro who is like in Sag was on Narcos for years. Like he's been in tons of American productions. He's a very, he's a well-known actor. Yeah. People may not know his name, but people just sitting at home like clicking tiles and streaming are like, oh, yeah, that guy, you know, like the cartel king from Narcos. So for him to not get recognized in some of those bodies is just kind of it's an interesting wrinkle in this. Yeah. And we have similar confusion points with Baff to and it's just a reminder that like take some of these things seriously, but not too seriously. And as I should tell myself go with my gut, what I need to. Tana Taylor is also obviously nominated in this category. And I thought she was going to win for the longest time and I'm still leaning Amy Madigan now. Okay. I think that the two sentimental value Noms does cancel them out. I agree. So then you've got Tana and Amy Madigan, the fact that Chase Infinity did not get nominated does not really vote well for how the voters are thinking about the value of the female performances in one battle after another. Once again, do not that is not my opinion. I am observing not endorsing. I disagree vehemently. And she said you should at AK Dobbs. You're racist. You don't understand. Yeah. Okay. But yeah, I think I think you're right that the field might be clearing for Amy Madigan. Diane Warren. I told you. You did. I didn't text you what had happened. You know, that didn't the damned and even break on that one. I was just kind of like I this this another category. I was like, this is poppycock. It's been poppycock for decades. This is the worst category. I predicted two wicked for good songs for no reason. I don't know why I did that. That was silly. I predicted one. This is a silly silly category. And and but Golden will win. And Golden is one of the only entrants in this category in the last five years that like is true to the spirit, which is a song written for the film itself. Yes. And also penetrated the mainstream in a way along the same lines as like gosh, I don't even know like the hustle and flow theme. You know what I mean? Like there it's very rare that a song like breaks through and people are really into it from this category. Other can't other nominees. So dear me from Diane Warren Cole and Relentless. That's a documentary about how Diane Warren is relentless. Yes. Highest to lowest from highest to lowest, which neither of us predicted in hindsight. I don't know what we were doing there. We probably should have just predicted that because that's a movie that a lot of people have seen from Spike Lee. Yeah. It's the titular song from movie. The film ends with its performance. It should. I lied to you from sinners, which we both had sweet dreams of joy from a film called Viva Verde exclamation point, which I had never heard of. Wait. So highest to lowest was nominated. I thought I saw highest tonight. No. And you texted me this earlier and I was like I was doing my hair and I was confused. Oh, do I have this wrong? I am I'm just double-checked and you're right. I've got six. Yeah. You've got six. No. Did train dreams make it? Train dreams made it. Okay. Well, I take it back highest to lowest. All right. Sorry. Highest to lowest. It's the titular song, but it does not get an awesome. I'm looking at the Hollywood reporter, best original song list from this race. Okay. And highest to lowest is on it. That's where I counted it from. So they just had six songs there. Why couldn't the Academy not just release a PDF? Is this is it because the PDF doesn't exist? You know, this morning, I guess I wasn't actually looking at the F of all the nominees. Yeah. I think that's available somewhere. No, well, it's not because everyone is just scrambling typing things out. Yeah. Well, that's what this is. This is a mistake made by the Hollywood reporter that I then made on this podcast. Well, that's because. But seriously, though, let's just go back for a second. Let's rewind by highest to lowest take. Okay. I thought it made sense that this movie would be nominated because people have seen this movie is directed by Spike Lee. Yeah. But it's not nominated. Right. And a song called Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde is nominated. Sure. What is Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde? What is Viva Verde? Thanks so much for asking. Viva Verde is what I think you mean not live long live green. Not green. Yeah. But very the composer here is what I pulled off of Google. We've been doing Spanish. So Verde is on the mind. Okay. Great. An intimate glimpse into the lives of the celebrated opera singers and musicians currently living out there, quote unquote, third act while mentoring international music students who live among them at Milan's unique retirement home, Casa Verde, built by Verde, the composer in 1896. So did you listen to the song? No, of course not. I mean, it's an opera. It's not even a song. I don't even understand. Well, this is a very strange thing. This category is fucking broken. They got it. They should probably just delete it. I've been saying this for 10 years. I completely agree. Okay. It's terrible. They can give it to Golden. Yeah. And then we're done. Maybe there should just be like, they should just choose the winner every year. Like don't even do the nominations. Just choose the winner and be like, hey, it's obviously golden guys. Yeah. We're not even, you know, Lewis Pullman is like, hey, everybody, good news. I'm able to give out one award here at 530 in the morning. Gold and step right up. Yeah. That actually is not a bad idea to give out one award on nominations morning every year. It changes. Good morning, America. Good idea. Not a good morning, America. Why not? We need to update. Why are we all up at 530? Like the news cycle is totally different. We've got to read. I've got incredible ideas. We could be giving away best sound to F1 today. We don't have to wait two more months. Then you would be crying. That's like worse than showing the center's golden globe score win during the commercials. No, everybody on the tell us. This is the second biggest morning in the Oscars news cycle. The sound win is going to go completely overlooked when it happens on March 15. Because there's going to be 23 other awards given out. If we give it out on this morning as a treat and it changes every year and we don't tell people what what they're going to give out. But we tell the nominees so they come to at 530 in the morning. So that they have their glory. This is a good idea. No, it's a terrible idea. God damn it. No, I mean, everybody wants to be on the stage. Everybody wants to be junior. On stage with Danielle Brooks. Okay. Right. And Lynette Howell Taylor, president of the Academy. I thought that Lewis Pullman and Danielle Brooks did a lovely job. They did. They did. Good job. That's all. Good job, them. I don't need that many speeches from the Academy president at 530 a.m. Make up and hair styling. Yeah. So you have not heard of two of these films? Well, I googled them. So now I've done my research. I have I've heard of both of them that you're offering to. I have seen the Ugly Stepsister, okay, which is a Scandinavian horror reimagination of Cinderella. I mean, I gathered that from the Ugly Stepsister. Yes. That is very gross and good. I think it was a little oversold to me. So I didn't love it as much. And I actually never got a chance to talk about it on this show. I never talked about it. It was and it was picked up by Shutter. You can stream it on a Shutter right now. It's a good film. CoCoho, which is a Japanese film. It was the Japanese entry for international feature this year. Has had a very strong advocate in the public. And that person is Tom Cruise. Cool. He has hosted screenings and talked about his love for this movie. I haven't seen it. Okay. It is in theaters right now in a precious few theaters. I think it's playing the Burbank 16. So I'm going to go check it out very soon. Okay. Other films that were recognized in makeup and hair styling include Frankenstein and sinners, of course, and the smashing machine, which we predicted those other three as we went through. That's the Marty's just as good. The Marty's Supreme manicure not recognized. And the Martin Lutheran no Timothy Shalamy is acne. Yeah. But it did make it in costume design. Which I'm pleased about. Do you want to talk about costume design quickly? Yeah. Miyako Belize was nominated for all the incredible stuff in Marty's Supreme. Let's see. Well, there's one really odd nomination. That was our fire in ash. Yes. Avatar Fire in ash got in there. Frankenstein. We knew it would get in hand that we knew it would get in Marty Supreme. We hoped it would get in sinners. We knew it would get in. So that a fairly predictable category. However, Avatar Fire in ash like is this for dressing for rang? Yeah. I or undressing for rang. Is it worth? Have I told you about the mind share that just the words Avatar Fire in ash have in our home now? You have. Yeah. My like knocks just like whispers it in moments of like, you know, he's seen the images. So in that sense, the costumes. Yeah. Which are our blue digital makeup. Yeah. Are very effective. Well, I mean, is this also the costumes for like the human characters? I guess so. Edie Falco's like big machine and her costume. That's interesting. You think the power loader is being considered as part of her costume? Well, the Avatar Fire in ash is not listed in production design. Yes. Best machinery. Yeah. Is something we should consider here at the Academy Awards. We're coming up with some goals right now. What else? Where else do you want to go in this conversation? We've talked about the documentary branch. We talked about costume design. We've talked about all of the acting categories except for actor and actress. Let's do that right now. The best category maybe in the history of the Academy Awards is this year's best actor race. This is as good as it gets for the Academy Awards. That's great. I can't we've been we have been predicting for the most part this five some in part because I think we've hoped to be the case. We started talking about this way back when centers came out because we had hopes Michael would be Jordan would get in. And you know what? He kind of like locked himself into this race and has held in in every single precursor. He's won nothing. Yeah. He's won nothing. But he has hung around here and he's here of course as Artimati Shalamet Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke and Vognomora. Five great performances, five great movies. You still think Timothy Shalamet. I don't know. I'm working through it. I think so. What's going on? So what's what do I think is going to happen or what is my pick? Timmy forever. Don't have the jacket. No, I know your pick. What else? What's going on inside you? Give us a little bit of your interior monologue. We learned from yesterday and what we learned from waking up and coming to podcast every day of a Sean Fantasy is don't be a coward. Trust your gut. And my gut has been saying Vognomora for some time. You know, I trust my gut and also the people of Brazil and their love for cinema and their power and their advocacy. So I, you know, I'm trying to lean into what I believe on the other and the secret agent is strong. You know, relatively speaking. On the other hand, I'm trying to game out like the next two months. And there are appearances, I guess there's, you know, tea parties and the the Oscars lunch where they all pose and all of that stuff. But I don't know how many opportunities Vognomora has to get in front of as many people as Timothy Shalame has already gotten in front of. And he's not nominated at SAG aka the actor awards. So he won't even get like a, um, wasn't that one Michelle yo started to turn the tide against Cape Lenship and Jamie Lee Curtis as well. Exactly. So he won't get one of those. And to Timothy Shalame if he wins at the actor awards, we'll have just given three acceptance speeches in front of people. And I do think that there's a lizard brain aspect to this at some point. So I don't know. On the other hand, I've just been thinking a lot about Olivia Coleman. Lady Gaga, you know, so you never know. Okay, here's my, here's where my mind goes as I hear you talk about that. Okay. If in fact Vognomora wins in this category, which is of course very possible. And I'm not saying would not be worthy as a win. This will probably go down as one of those kinds of losses for Shalame that we talk about on the rewatchables all the times, which is like this was the best chance to recognize this person here. And now a long time may go by before they get a chance. And the person that I think about is the in our day to cat. Oh, no, Paul Newman. Paul Newman in the 1960s, including starting in 1959 was nominated for cat in a hot tin roof. Yeah. And then three years later, the hustler. And then two years later, HUD. And then four years later, cool hand Luke. Yeah. And he never won. He lost David Niven, Maximeleon Shell, Sydney, Pau T. A and Rod Steiger. None of those losses are like bad losses. Right. You lost a very famous actors, beloved actors, legendary wins, Pau T. A winning, Maximeleon Shell for judgment in Nuremberg, a really powerful performance. None of those are like bad. Yeah. But if you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years. And of course, you have to wait a very long time to win for the color of money. And he did win eventually. But the idea of Timothy Schalme winning it like 59 is just very funny. Like will Timothy Schalmeleon ever be 59? Exactly. It's the will any of us be alive. No, it's totally possible. We'll movies exist. Timothy Schalme could make a movie in 2028 that is one of the best films ever made. And he could win for that film. But we've seen this over and over again. And so to game out that thing that you're describing is interesting. This is how it happens. Yeah. It's really what I'm trying to say. He has always been the new Leo to me. I mean, just in the career rise, which is starting Gaza. It's a teen hardthrob and very, very passionate teen fan base expanding, working with a lot of great directors nominated, but not winning. And they have encouraged the comparisons as well. And certainly now like this Oscar race is like, you know, from Leo to Timmy. But Leo did not win until the Revenant. He had to wear like a bare skin. I said to our pal Joanna Robinson, who I saw in person in the office yesterday. Wonderful. It's just so weird. Helio's not competing in this race. It's so weird because he's so present. Unbelievable. But I mean, this is this is a larger one battle thing. Once again, it's our favorite movie of the year. It's 13 nominations. And we have not really talked about it at all. Even in this podcast, unless to say, you know, oh, yeah. And one battle. I mean, it's going to win best picture. And we have a lot of time to talk about that. That's true. And I, and I, I'm not going to concern troll and say, like, is this, you know, in attention going to extend to best picture? And I don't think so. And I don't think so either. I don't. I got 13 nominations, which is now the third most in the history. They can't be words. So I think the film is still very strong. You know, we can talk about best actress now. Now given the chase infinity snub because Jesse Buckley, Rose Burn, the aforementioned Kate Hudson, Renata Rinespa and Emma Stoner in here, it's been a Jesse Buckley steamroll through the season. We've seen this before, especially in this race. Someone is anointed and they carried all the way through. There have been some diversions from that. You mentioned the Michelle, you kind of late surge given the admiration for her. I'm not sure if there's a candidate here that could do the same. Rose Burn is maybe a little bit less experienced than someone like Michelle, you know, doesn't quite have the same track record. You could see if it was 10 years later, Rose Burn could do that. Yeah. Or if the movie were a tiny bit bigger. Yeah. And I love if I had legs I could go. It was at my top five for last year. I think she's amazing in it. Amazing movie. I think even this like nomination, as she said at the Golden Globes, I won't she won for best actress in a drama. Like it'll get more attention, which is, which is good. But it's it's not everything everywhere all at once. It's not just box office wise. So yeah, I feel like Buckley is pretty much in place there. That's another race where it's like how much can we really talk about this for the next two months. Let's talk very briefly about the screenplay categories. Okay. Adapted. We both predicted perfectly. Five for five. But going you Frank and sign Hamnet one battle after another in train dreams. Not as much on the outskirts there. That this felt like the single easiest big category to predict. This is the one that they could have just handed out this morning. And I would have been okay with it because PT is going to get other awards at the Oscars. And it's like no one needs to spend the money on the outfits. No one needs to spend, you know, two hours in line. It's a security trend to get in like. So you think it's a lock that he's going to win here for adapted. You think they're going to try to throw a bone to Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrow. I don't think so. Come on. I don't know. Okay. That's fine. I have I do feel that they could just FedEx this to him. I would like to hear his speech. Let's go back to do that. Let's go back to director then. Do you think that that then means that PGA will win picture director and screenplay. I do. They do last year. Is there is that is that is there anything wrong with that? No, no one didn't get this right. He didn't win screenplay as I recall. Yeah, that's because he wrote the third hour of Oppenheimer. But it is becoming more common. And this is something that was very hard to accomplish for a long time. We often saw splits in director and picture to kind of like a war in multiple films and delineate the difference between those two jobs, I think, which is kind of hard to parse, but does exist as you have said, you don't want producers speaking at the Academy Awards. I guess he is going to win because I don't think that the other nominees are really all that strong. And I guess that's the case. Okay. Original screenplay. Another very cool category with some very worthy nominees. Blue Moon, it was just an accident Marty Supreme sentimental value in centers. And we think it's just centers. As I said, I don't know what they're going to do about getting both Trier and Panahi on stage. What if Marty Supreme wins here? I would be excited, but I would feel very bad. I think that this is Ryan Kuhler's best chance at a speech. And I really want that for him. I think it's really deserving. I think this as a, it's, this is the coolest award always to us. This always has the coolest nominees. It goes to our favorite filmmakers instead of best picture. This is, this is like where the real ones are. And for this film, which is about how white people have stolen Black Art for a century to then be nominated and win. Force cream play would be great if someone else wins. What would mean if the white boy of the year. Yeah. Right. So that's also, you know, I just let's, let's Ryan Kuhler, you know, like it's, it's deserving. It's, it's the correct choice. Let's just do it. I can't disagree. Yeah. Briefly cinematography. Did we predict these perfectly? I think so. I believe we both did. Yeah. It's Dan Loutson for Frankenstein, Darius Congee from Marty Supreme. Our pal David Simms pointed out that Darius Congee has three Academy Award nominations, one of the greatest living cinematographers, the French Iranian filmmaker. Those three nominations, do you have any idea what they are? Can you even guess at all? No. You know, well known for shooting seven, has worked with some of the best filmmakers of all time. You shot on Cajem's. His three nominations are Evita, Bartos and Marty Supreme. It's really good. Michael Bowman for one battle after another autumn, Dural D'Arcopo for sinners and Adolfo Veloso. I'm feeling autumn Dural D'Arcopo. It feels like she's going to win. That would be another place where sinners could be recognized. You never know. I could see Darius winning here. I could see Michael Bowman winning here. I could see Adolfo Veloso winning here. Train Dreams, that beautiful digital cinematography. It is so hard to accomplish. The other, the other nomination that I'm really excited about is Jack Fisk, in production design. I talked to Jack Fisk for the show. You'll hear that conversation very soon. He was not nominated when we spoke, so we didn't talk about that. He's been nominated before. Never won. His work on Marty Supreme is insanely good. I don't think he's the leader in the Clubhouse for this award. I will stump for this. Who do you think is the leader? Well, the other nominees are Tamara Deverell for Frankenstein, Fiona Cromby for Hamnet, Florentia Martin for one battle after another, and Hannah Beakler for sinners. I do think Hannah Beakler is leading. I do as well. She did win, right? I feel like she won previously for Black Panther, correct me if I'm wrong. Let's see. Yes, she did. She won. That's an interesting one. I'd like to see Jack Fisk get won before Hannah Beakler gets to. That's just me. We'll see. I would as well, but this award does 10. It's not only do they favor period, but the more period, the better, the further back in time you have to go. You're right. You're very right. Quickly film editing. F1 got in here. Yeah, we expected that. We did. Marty Supreme also got in here. Yeah. One battle after another, sentimental value and sinners. Marty's the only film in which the filmmakers edited the film. You don't see that too often these days. We mentioned casting and the confusion about what this category is going to be over time. I'm sure they'll clear that up for us. I'm sure they'll just still release everything. Straight to YouTube. Question for you. Just a predictive question for you. Yeah. How many years will go by before a film is nominated in casting that does not get a best picture nomination? Oh, interesting. I mean, that's hard because you have the 10 spots. I mean, four. Okay. I asked that specifically because when you look at a category like film editing, which is historically very important in the package for a best picture winner, F1's there. Yeah. And it did get into best picture. But I wouldn't have predicted that and I didn't predict it. And sometimes even though in your heart, you did predict it. Even though I did know. Okay. Looking at the board in full again and looking at best picture before you wrap up here. This is a pretty cool slate of nominees. Definitely. I would say a good morning for the Academy Awards. Nothing like embarrassing. True. F1 is there will be some notes. Silly. A little silly. Which is a cookie. Cookie is my word of choice. A little cookie. Okay. But you know, as I say about, you know, can't mom and dad have fun? Can't the Academy have fun too every once in a while? I guess they can. Yeah. I think so. This is for the dads. That's for the dads. F1 is a dad movie. It's a dad classic instantaneously. And dads can now tune into the Academy Awards. We said that we think one battle is going to win. It's got the second most nominations. We just mocked three or four potential sinners wins too. What film do you think will win the most Academy Awards on this night? I let's see. So I have one, two, three for one battle top line. And that's it, right? And do I have any acting? No. Right now I'm leaning Amy Madigan. Do I have anything below the line? Editing. Maybe editing. Maybe. And maybe. Yeah. So that's for the cinematography. Maybe. No, but I think all of that stuff is going to go to centers. So sinners, I have definitely scores cinematography, a whole original screenplay. We got to do it. So that's three. Yeah. What else? Costume production. Maybe. They're both in play. Yeah. So that's that's five, which is over four. So right now I think I'm going, I mean, some of this is just numbers. So I was going to say, here's the thing about being nominated 16 times. You increase your odds of winning more awards. They have 16 bites at the apple. And like, let's, I don't know how much we're going to talk about sinners on Academy Awards night. And we will talk about the movie again on the show. Yes. Because we're going to rewatch it and read and talk through like kind of what's great about it. You'll get finally got a chance to see the after credit sequence. Congrats to you. I'm just going to watch it all, you know, in full as it was intended. But this is a movie that got really stuck in the discourse funnel. It had box office discourse, it had representation discourse. It had craft, you know, skill art discourse. Is this movie actually good? You hear that a lot of times now because it's like a vampire movie. And I think that will be a reaction to 16 nominations is like, really, this is the film that absolutely shattered the all-time record for the Academy Awards. Some of that is a function of just kind of like what the Academy is right now. Some of it is a function of the number of people who've worked on this film who are now Academy veterans, the Hannah Beeklers and the living grandsons of the world. Like, what did it all mean? What was it all for? Like, we participated in all of it. You know, like, it didn't mean anything. We made $400 million. Yeah. $16 million. This is why you, Sean, Fantasy need to stop posting. You know, no, I will post right through it. Watch the film and then go outside. I guess that's actually the question I'm trying to ask. Does the posting actually matter? Because when the discourse starts and people, somebody posts something annoying and then he's like, shut the fuck up. That's wrong. And then everybody is all really bent out of shape about what they heard, what they saw on a social media app. But then maybe can you actually win back the day by hard posting through it? Can Van Leathen win back the day by shouting down the haters? Well, don't you think that some of the, just like the confirmation and every category is all the rational minded people being like, stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it. Like, it's an individual. So I think that take away might be the opposite. So you think posting that that's great. Look at Timothy Chalnick. I know. The posting works. I know. We're in an era of post. Yeah. You know, sentimental value. Elfanting has just been knocking through x.com for months. Look at where it got her. Thank you to her. Did we even talk about the meds trading for Freddie Peralta? Everything is going great. Okay. They didn't know who that is. He was formerly the number one starting picture for the Milwaukee Brewers who won the most games in the NL Central last year. Yeah. He was traded to the New York Metz last night. Okay. Jack Sanders and I crying tears of joy. Thank you. David Sterns. You have saved us. I'm here 530 in the morning ready to go. I'm falling apart. The end of this podcast. Any any final takeaways. You need to man up. You need to believe in your truth at all times. And we're going back to f1. You know, yeah. I know. I need to get some of that. It's any energy. Stop posting and start believing. I know. And I've got all these young, these young Oscar pundits coming for me. You know, they're all like they've all been, they've been watching. Yeah. They've been learning. Okay. And they've been, they've been, they've been one-uping me. They've been like, I listened to Sean. He said f1. I'm predicting f1. And then I didn't predict f1. Yeah. Shameful. Yeah. Just shameful stuff. Well, we're going to we're going to keep talking about this award show. How much? I don't know. What do you have? Who can say? Thank you to our producer, Jack Sanders, for his work on this episode. We'll be back very soon on the big picture. See you then.