THEMOVE

Will UAE's Recent Crashes Derail Their Tour Campaign, and Do Picnic's Financial Troubles Threaten the Team's Future? | THEMOVE+

57 min
Jan 30, 20264 months ago
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Summary

The episode covers early 2025 cycling season highlights including Jay Vine's Tour Down Under win despite a broken wrist from a kangaroo collision, UAE's injury crisis, Unibet Rose Rockets missing the Tour de France wild card (going to Giro instead), and revelations that Picnic Post and L is losing millions annually with severe financial troubles.

Insights
  • UAE's dominance persists despite catastrophic injury losses—they lost 4 riders at Tour Down Under but remain projected as the strongest team due to deep roster depth and development program excellence
  • Picnic Post and L's financial model is unsustainable: spending 134% of budget on salaries alone while losing €19.5M over 3 years, forcing asset sales like Oscar Onley to stay afloat
  • Tour de France wild card selection favors historical/political leverage over hype—Caja Rural (Spanish bank with 40+ year cycling history) got the invite over popular Unibet Rose Rockets based on ranking position and ASO strategic alignment
  • New teams like Modern Adventure and Red Bull Bora are executing flawlessly in early season, signaling that well-funded entries with clear strategies can compete immediately
  • Professional cycling's financial pressure is industry-wide: bike manufacturers like Factor are restructuring sponsorships, and mid-tier WorldTour teams face existential threats
Trends
Injury clustering in elite teams during early season races suggests increased intensity/risk-taking in training camps and early-season eventsFinancial consolidation pressure: smaller WorldTour teams (€11-15M budgets) cannot sustain current salary structures, forcing rider sales and development-focused rostersSponsor rotation and licensing instability: teams registering under different national licenses (Rose Rockets as French despite Dutch identity) to accommodate gambling sponsorsStaff arms race escalation: top teams (Red Bull, UAE) hiring unprecedented numbers of support staff, creating competitive advantage in marginal gainsDevelopment program value: teams winning through internal talent promotion (UAE, Red Bull) rather than expensive transfers, reducing financial riskEarly-season race expansion: Saudi Arabia, Valencia, Mallorca races becoming critical for team visibility and sponsor ROI before major toursGravel/amateur-to-pro pipeline emerging: riders like Fritz transitioning from Cat 3 to WorldTour via gravel success and performance metricsTraining ride privacy erosion: professional riders increasingly unable to train anonymously due to fan culture and social media documentationTour de France wild card system favoring incumbents: rotation among Spanish teams (Caja Rural, Burgos BH, Kern Pharma) based on previous year invitationsBike industry consolidation: Factor's sponsorship restructuring and exclusive team partnerships (Modern Adventure) indicate margin pressure across manufacturers
Topics
Tour de France wild card selection criteria and ASO decision-makingProfessional cycling team financial sustainability and budget transparencyInjury management and medical protocols in elite cycling teamsSponsor licensing and regulatory compliance (gambling restrictions by country)Development program effectiveness and talent pipeline managementEarly-season race strategy and Grand Tour preparationBike manufacturer partnerships and exclusive equipment dealsProfessional athlete privacy and fan culture managementTeam staff expansion and marginal gains optimizationGravel cycling as talent identification pathwayWorldTour license requirements and financial guaranteesSalary structure sustainability in professional cyclingTraining ride safety and amateur-professional interactionRider transfer market and mid-contract salesSponsorship financial reporting and team transparency
Companies
UAE Team Emirates
Dominant team with injury crisis at Tour Down Under (4 riders out) but maintains strongest projected roster despite l...
Picnic Post and L
WorldTour team in severe financial distress: €19.5M losses over 3 years, spending 134% of budget on salaries, forced ...
Unibet Rose Rockets
French-registered team denied Tour de France wild card despite strong roster (Gronewagen, Lafay, Pöstlberger); going ...
Caja Rural
Spanish bank-backed team selected for Tour de France wild card over Unibet; ranked 23rd in UCI standings, first avail...
Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe
Remco Evenepoel's new team executing flawlessly with 2 early-season wins; significant staff expansion and home traini...
Modern Adventure
New WorldTour team with strong early-season visibility at Saudi Tour and Tour of Catalonia wild card; Factor bikes ex...
Visma-Lease a Bike
Benchmark team with €52M budget (2024) and 63% salary-to-budget ratio; contrasted with Picnic's unsustainable 134% ratio
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
WorldTour team with €59% salary-to-budget ratio; referenced as financially sustainable comparison to Picnic
Ineos Grenadiers
Acquired Oscar Onley from Picnic Post and L for €6M mid-contract; benefiting from Picnic's financial distress
Factor Bikes
Bike manufacturer restructuring sponsorships; exclusive partnership with Modern Adventure; sponsoring women's team Hu...
Ridley Bikes
Supplied time trial bikes to Unibet Rose Rockets; team repaints them in Rose colors due to Rose Bikes not manufacturi...
Rose Bikes
Online bike manufacturer and Unibet Rose Rockets title sponsor; doesn't manufacture time trial bikes, creating equipm...
ASO (Amaury Sport Organisation)
Tour de France and Vuelta organizer; made wild card selection favoring Caja Rural over Unibet Rose Rockets; owns both...
DSM (Koninklijke DSM)
Suspected financial backer covering Picnic Post and L's losses; relationship unclear but implied as sponsor/parent co...
Israel Premier Tech
Previous team of Riley Pickrell before Modern Adventure; didn't renew contract with promising Canadian rider
People
Jay Vine
Australian rider won Tour Down Under by largest margin in 19 years but broke wrist hitting kangaroo; slated for Giro ...
Jonas Vingegaard
Visma star crashed during training descent in Andalucia; incident involved amateur rider following; face injury reported
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull Bora's new star signing won 2 early-season races (Challenge Mallorca); dream start with extensive support staff
Dylan Gronewagen
Unibet Rose Rockets' star signing won first race of season; expected to target Giro d'Italia stages instead of Tour
Oscar Onley
Sold by Picnic Post and L to Ineos for €6M; finished 4th in Tour de France last year; departure reveals team's financ...
Jonathan Narvaez
UAE rider crashed at Tour Down Under with broken vertebrae; key domestique for Pogacar; out for extended period
Matteo Malucelli
XDS Astana rider won stage 4 Saudi Tour bunch sprint, defeating Jonathan Milan's expected dominance
Jonathan Milan
Won first 2 stages of Saudi Tour; expected to dominate sprints but lost stage 4 to Malucelli
Rimko Evenpoel
Red Bull Bora rider won Challenge Mallorca stage with dominant solo attack; preparing for Tour de France team time trial
Antonio Morgado
22-year-old UAE development rider; won Challenge Mallorca stage; 5th at Flanders at age 19-20; emerging talent
Juan Sebastian Molano
UAE rider did not finish Tour Down Under; part of team's injury crisis affecting multiple domestiques
Tadej Pogacar
UAE's protected leader; Narvaez injury impacts domestique support structure for Tour de France
Jai Hindley
Bora-Hansgrohe rider; mentioned in context of team roster changes and Tour de France preparation
Laurence Rex
Soudal QuickStep rider suffered 3 broken vertebrae in Saudi Tour descent crash at 106 km/h
Riley Pickrell
Canadian rider signed by Modern Adventure from Israel Premier Tech; performing well in early-season races
Quotes
"Three riders. Holy smokes. Jonathan Narvaez, Mikko Bergstock langen, also DNF and Juan Sebastian Milano all DNF so they had three riders finish one of those riders had a broken wrist that is a bit of bad luck"
Spencer MartinEarly segment on Tour Down Under
"They still project to be the best team this year by a massive margin. So they can see me like what's weird is every offseason they're getting worse because they're shipping out great riders. And they still continue to get better because the riders they have step up and improve."
Spencer MartinUAE analysis
"Picnic spent 134% of its budget on salaries. So it's spending far more than it's making just paying people their salaries. That's not a good spot to be in."
Spencer MartinFinancial troubles segment
"I think Caja Rural is the first available team in the ranking. So based on that, I think ASO made the logical choice."
Johan BruyneelWild card selection discussion
"He could realistically win a Giro stage, which would be massive for that team. That would make their season."
Johan BruyneelGronewagen Giro strategy
Full Transcript
It's logical. I think Caja Rural is the first available team in the ranking. So based on that, I think ASO made the logical choice. And I assume they're going to go to the Giro with Dylan Gronenwegen now, which when they signed Gronenwegen, I thought, well, they must be going to the Tour. They must know. And he could maybe win a Tour stage. But I think he has a much better chance of winning a Giro stage. These Giro sprints are a lot softer than Tour sprints, especially if your team is not the best competing against the best lead outs in the world at the tour yeah the zero is different i mean he could realistically win a zero stage which would be massive for that team that would make their season everybody welcome back to the move plus i'm spencer martin i'm here with johan bernil we are going through the last week of cycling news the season started kicked off it started johan and the races are coming thick and fast. We've got Jay Vine won the Tour Down Under, but that feels, and broke his wrist in the process, that feels like a lifetime ago. We have the Saudi Tour going on, multiple races in Valenciana, the Mallorcan Challenge Mallorca races going on. We will try to recap the highlights of those as much as we can. A little bit of news on Tour de France wild cards. Pitney Personnel may be in financial trouble, as well as Jonas Vinegard crashing during training. But Johan, to take it back, all the way back to the Tour Down Under, if you can remember that, J. Vine wins. After we did our last show, the corkscrew climb had already happened. We predicted Wollonga Hill was announced as not happening. We predicted J. Vine would win easily. I would say the big thing we didn't see coming is that Jonathan Narvaez, his teammate, would crash. It was probably only two hours after we finished recording last week. and seriously hurt his back. Seems to be out for quite a long time, so he did not get second. J-Vine won by a massive margin over, I believe, Marlo Schmidt with Harry Sweeney getting a surprise third place. I looked it up. It was the biggest margin of victory at the Tour Down Under in 19 years, so pretty good result for J-Vine. Not the outcome he was looking for holistically, I assume, because he hit a kangaroo on the final stage. Finished the stage impressively and then found out he had a broken wrist. But what were your thoughts on Jay Vine winning that race? Yeah, I mean, I just found out actually just a few hours ago, Spencer, that Jay Vine broke his wrist. I didn't know. Yeah, obviously we expected him to win, you know, after that demonstration on Corkscrew. And yeah, UAE seems to, you know, they seem to be in great shape, but they seem to have a lot of bad luck because uh narvaez crashed hard he was not the only one to crash uh i think there's another rider out with an injury or a fracture even it was multiple riders you have from that race that they lost during the three guys three guys and then jay vine i mean yeah hey it's down under but man this i think this is a first right in a in a race hit by a kangaroo um that's like uh yeah Yeah, that's pretty unique. It was actually on camera. There was two kangaroos basically jumping in the peloton. I mean, this is not like a dog. You know, these animals are massive. They're big. They're powerful too. Yeah. And also, it's not that they come running to the peloton. They jump. They come from, you know, above you. Yeah. And it was panic. Unfortunately, Jay Vine crashed, made it to the finish. One, two down under. I think, I mean, I don't know. I mean, I saw an interview from him after the, after the race, he didn't seem to mention anything. He didn't mention anything at all. His wrist. And so finally, yeah, a fracture. I'm going to guess it's not, it's not a huge injury, but it required surgery. So it, it's better to, you know, obviously it's a shame for Jay Vine because he obviously started the season in great form. I'm going to guess he was, he was, His ambition was to build up on that in the early races in the season to have a few more results. Now we'll see. We'll see what it does. I mean, the wrist, it's not great. You can't hold your handlebars. Then again, you know, if we look back a few weeks ago, Walt Von Aert broke his ankle, had surgery. And so this is a new generation, right? New generation of athletes. They're back straight away. fortunately fortunately nowadays there's uh there's a lot of technology to ride indoor different platforms where it's basically you know you can simulate training nowadays so he's not going to lose a lot of condition he may lose some races obviously if you have a broken wrist you need a few weeks three four weeks to heal right so yeah that's definitely going to be uh against uh you know, against his ambitions, what Jay Vine had at the beginning of the season. But still, the first big race, the first World 2 race, if you win that, it's already, I mean, especially in him as an Australian rider, to win that race was on his, I think, I guess it was marked in red in his objectives list. So, but yeah, I mean, unfortunately, I don't know, UAE, they do have a lot of riders because I saw in Alula also some crashes of UAE riders. It is, of course, listen, it's bad luck. You can't do anything against it. I mean, there's nothing you can do if a kangaroo all of a sudden comes out of the sky. I mean, sort of speaking, there's not much you can do, right? But yeah, it shows that it's a very dominant team. They started in amazing fashion, dominating the first, big stage race, I would say. And, you know, it can be all over in a second. So that's why we need to, you know, we need to comment on these shows and take it week by week. You can't look too far ahead, you know? Well, yeah, but then unless they start introducing kangaroos to France, it's still, it's maybe going to win that. Do you know how many riders UA finished had finished the Tour Down Under? This is crazy. Three riders. Holy smokes. Jonathan Narvaez, Mikko Berg, stock langet sorry the way they put these names it's stock vingen langen also dnf and juan sebastian sorry vingen stock langen juan sebastian milano all dnf so they had three riders finish one of those riders had a broken wrist that is a bit of bad luck also these races have been crazy hectic um you mentioned the crash at saudi tour you know it's like 106 kilometer you know these descents these big desert descents they're just these wide open roads you can go so fast on them and you think wow i hope i don't crash on this and there was a crash yeah it is bad luck they also we should say they're having bad luck some crashes they also lead the world they lead the sport in wins so far this year um in uci points and jay vine has more pro wins than any other rider in 2026 so far so still off to a pretty good start you'd say yeah and you know they they obviously have a great roster of riders so um but they will have to re and reinvent their their schedule a bit because you know those four riders who didn't finish um i don't know which other rider had also uh an injury or broken bone so they're all pretty important riders yeah that is the problem you You need to shuffle around a little bit. But anyways, they have a very deep roster. So maybe they're going to have to start one of the races with six riders or something. But ultimately, I think they're going to be fine. I have a piece hopefully coming out later today that it goes through the points lost and gained each offseason. And for the second straight offseason, UAE has lost like more points than almost any team. And they still project to be the best team this year by a massive margin. So they can see me like what's weird is every offseason they're getting worse because they're shipping out great riders. And they still continue to get better because the riders they have step up and improve. So they'll probably be okay. They also have a great development program. I've even heard that they're looking at starting a junior team also, or at least a collaboration with a proper junior team. So it's always the question, right? I mean, if you're part of such a great team, it's normal that some riders who reach a certain level leave to other teams to either have a more protected role. salary wise I don't think salary wise I think it's hard to compete with UAE but still but then it's to be seen how these riders perform once they're in another role and have responsibility and stress and they need to deliver I've seen riders leave there in many teams which this is the case when you're on a star-studded team and guys leave sometimes it's basically at the end of their career just for another or their last big contract. That sometimes happens. But I'm not worried for UAE at all. Even if they have lost points, points-wise, they're going to make up for it. Yeah. I would say Navarez is – I mean, is he even going to race this year? He has broken vertebrae. We don't know. Does he? He is. Yeah, pretty important rider for that team. If you think about the tour last year, he was key. So his loss is a big deal. Vine will recover. He's slated to do the Giro d'Italia. I think my crazy big brain thought is this is actually good for a Giro because it focuses him now to re-peak for the Giro, put money on it right now. Jay Vine wins the Giro d'Italia. Someone messaged me and they're like, he's good, but does he have the killer instinct to win? He has more wins than anyone else this year. he's pretty good at winning better than a lot of other riders but yeah um i'm kind of joking there but i do think jay vine could have a good giro though uh partly because now he has to focus on it because he can't race for a while i stepping away from the tour down under i mean i just to i don't want to gloss over this that narvaez injury is a big deal for them but think about someone like brandon mcnulty that guy wasn't in the tour team for years they can just pull him off the Ben Strom and the Tour de France. So they do have some options that other teams have. They have many options. Yeah. Well, look, even last year, Spencer, Narvaez was, I think, in two occasions, like the last guy to set up Pogacar, right? Yeah, like in key moments. But it's normally not his role. I mean, he stepped up because they lost Almeida. Almeida was supposed to be that guy. So he stepped up. Narvaez has never done that before. in the high mountains. He's never been there at the last, at the last, uh, man. He knew he had to step up. He did it. So, um, I mean, if the, if the roster is normally the way it should be, Narvaez would probably be the fourth last guy. There's probably two other guys and then Pogacar. You know, of course, there will be, there will be, uh, uh, Del Toro. Um, I guess Almeida's not doing the tour, no? Uh, this, this, No, no. They still have Adam Yates. I mean, they have many other riders. Jan Christen, I don't know. Jan Christen is probably not a Tour de France rider, or at least not with Pogacar in the team. He's probably not enough domestique for that mentality. But they have many guys who can do that. Yeah, I think they'll manage. Don't weep for UAE. They'll be fine. The Saudi Tour is underway. I would say it's the Saudi Alula tour. So I would imagine it's happening in Alula tour, the region of Alula. It looks incredible. We're not getting paid. We're not getting paid by Alula to say this. I was stunned by the scenery. It is more impressive than I thought. This justifies why you do a bike race in a region like this, because I wouldn't know it existed. But Jonathan Milan wins the first two stages. The first stage was incredibly hard, broken up. It was, you know, echelons, like a kind of a breakaway, kind of two pelotons, but stays away, wins the first stage. Milan wins the second stage. I was thinking, this guy's going to be unbeatable in all the sprints. Summit finish on stage three where Giannis Vassard wins from Tudor, a 27-year-old Swiss rider who I don't think I'd ever heard of. but it was an impressive summit finish when you said he's 50 56 kilos which explains why he was so good on that summit finish but then today stage four in the bunch sprint i thought milan was a shoo-in but mateo malicelli wins on xds astana like it was a really milan kind of had a it was a little bit of a bumpy he had to move around quite a bit but he had a clean line to that finish and Matteo just came right out of a slipstream and won the stage. Really impressive win from him. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that was a nice win. I mean, I think you're right. I mean, I couldn't see exactly what the wind was doing, but the wind obviously plays a big role there on those finish stretches. You know, I think it's a very strange way of racing in Alula Tour. If you look, you know, there's a lot of straight roads and then you see these riders now and then getting off all the time like the asphalt is like a bit higher than you have sand on the side you see them constantly go off and on the on the road uh it dangerous and they lucky it not a big peloton you peloton It not a huge peloton I think there like 115 riders of which there's some continental teams, not even pro teams. So these guys are obviously in the final of the race. They're just hanging on for dear life. And it's a battle between 40-50 riders. But still, it looks dangerous. um and um yeah i mean we also that crash spencer uh two days ago on that downhill as you said 106 kilometers per hour that was oh that was scary i mean we've seen those uh that uae guy from the development team i forgot his name i think it was an italian guy yeah no yeah his he had no skin left on his buttocks yeah i mean imagine going down at 100k an hour uh no and uh and then there was there's a belgian guy uh lawrence rex i think uh lawrence lawrence rex from sudall quickstep he has three broken vertebrae uh from that crash so wow uh you know it's it's a high pace to pry a high price to pay to you know for a race like this um but uh and also spencer what i really uh want to point out is that the really great start and amazing presence of our new american team modern adventure you know i mean they uh they're they're starting in this race it's their first race i guess i don't know if they did another i think it's their very first race yeah which is a It's a hard race to have to be your first race. They are very, very proactive. They take initiative. They're a few times in the top 10. I guess today they had a guy in the top 10, American guy. Not American. Well, I guess technically American, North American, Riley Pickerel, who is Canadian. Oh, he's Canadian. Okay. And really good, right? I was actually surprised they got him from Israel Premier Tech. I didn't understand why they didn't renew his contract, but really good pickup and pays off already. Yeah, but especially the visibility of the team, I think, is the takeaway. They're present, they're in the front, they're taking initiative. So yeah, that's really nice to see. And also, the organizers must be very pro-modern adventure because they got a nice invite for the Tour of Catalonia, which is a big World Tour race in Catalonia. I think they have some kind of a base in Girona, I think. uh that would make sense to have them there um that's obviously a bigger race a high level race and it's going to be a bit different in terms of in terms of results but uh great start for the team man i have to say it's uh it's nice to see it is really good to see yeah they're very visible the bikes look great those factors yeah what's crazy is i was thinking that's the only team with factor bikes this year and they so this is really super aero bike they're on and then they're the only one that has it so it's kind of an interesting factor is also uh sponsoring the the women's team human powered help i think oh interesting i didn't realize that yeah i think so quite we won't we won't get into uh we won't get into uh like today's today's news of factors sponsorship changes for 2026, but they have like very drastically changed their, their sponsor situation. I think they had David Miller come in and take over marketing. So making, making changes there. Yeah. Super kind of an interesting decision, but curious to see, it seems like they're streamlining things. And as we'll get into later in the show, a lot of pressure on the bike industry, a lot of financial pressure, which could explain some of the changes we've seen so also there's just a lot of racing that's been going on there was two races in a near the costa blanca maybe on the costa blanca in spain at last week and michael matthews wins the first one and then there was the classica communica communica communitat valenciana where if you look at if you start to look closely at these routes it left right in front of like a lot of team hotels for their training camps so you're like okay i see what's going on here and then dylan grunewagen wins the significance of that other than dylan grunewagen being happy that he won a race that he's on unibet rose rockets so i believe it was the first race of their season that you the new they're like new and improved unibet rose if the if the race of michael matthews was the first one then because yeah they must have been they were there yeah it was their second race But anyway, great way to start the season. Great way, yeah. And also for Grunewagen, it's been a while since he won, I guess. And then for him to win on that new team for their confidence and for the team's confidence in Grunewagen, it's great. If you can straightaway deliver, because it was a star signing and it's not a cheap contract. so I guess both Grunewagen and the team must be extremely happy with that win and the big news that came out, I saw it yesterday in a French paper that they're not I thought they were a lock for the tour they're apparently not going to the tour Cahu Raul is going instead let's leave that let's talk about Mallorca really quick and then we're going to come back to that I have some thoughts, you're going to explain to us why this happened I have some thoughts why that actually could be good for them to not go to the tour but there's the challenge mayorka going on challenge mayorka is a little confusing because it's a stage race it's happening every day you do not have to it's not really a stage race though you do not have to compete every day from is that correct johan you can pick your shoes it's been like this for a very long time i remember back in my days uh when i was riding at once a week it was five days and you can we were there with the whole team we had our training camp like a week before and then some guys did three races some i mean i have a picture somewhere i'll i'll see if i can find it we we i think we raced like with 20 guys one one stage uh you could you the whole team could race you know so oh wow that's kind of cool back then it was it was training races and there's no gc uh there's no gc and every day it started there's no time it's not it's a long time, right? So, um, you can skip a race, you know, uh, nowadays, uh, they also use these races to have riders on the development teams, join the world tour teams, uh, or the pro, the pro teams. Um, for example, I saw Lorenzo Finn. He was the world champion under 23 and, and he was the world champion juniors. His first, in his first race, he straight away wrote with, uh, with the pros in the team time trial yesterday. No, no, yeah interesting and so it's it's a bunch of one-day races uh and it's a nice system i think it is a nice system it's very you know it's it's a great opportunity to try out different riders during the five days and the big the thing that stuck out to me most from this well antonio morgado i believe that's his first name won a stage looks great this is a guy that i think is really good another guy in uae that they seem to have just developed we've talked about him i think two years ago on the upper comer show i think yeah we have an upper coming show on on monday we should talk about him again yeah he's gonna be good but they had more i mean i'm checking his age he's only 22 that's crazy you know he got in 2024 he was top 10 at flanders fifth at Flanders so he would have been I think he was not I don't even know if he was was he 20 or 19 at the time yeah it well we'd have to check still super impressive but he went to stage and then there's a team time trial on it's that all these stages have names like Trofeo Cessalines was the team time trial I thought well UA UA is going to be shoo-in for this but this is the significance of this is there's a team time trial first stage of the tour de france so what a lot of teams did like red bull is they brought rimko evanapol and florian lippowitz who are going to both be on the tour de france team probably to have them just try out you know it's important to get reps team time trying team time trailing together they win the stage movie stars second kind of a surprising result jaco alula third uae fourth and then rimko wakes up today he says i want to i want to maybe win another race and he just it was pretty impressive they it was a hilly like mountainous stage he just rode away from a group that included morgado and but he crested the col de solaire and it was like 50k to the finish and he just kept piling on it was like a two minute gap by the by the finish line by himself pretty impressive result yeah um I mean, it was all planned like this, obviously, because they did the call to Sawyer from the back, I mean, from the long side, from Sawyer, coming from Sawyer. Yeah, like from the ocean. From the big road. And then, you know, you have a bunch of switchbacks and Red Bull was setting it up. Remco just attacked and just, you know, rode away from everybody. It shows that, first of all, he's in great shape. I think for Remco, this is a dream start. the first two races, two wins on his new team. This is great for the team, riders and staff to say, okay, we have this new star rider. He shows up, races twice, wins twice. This is the dream start, right? Of course, it's a challenge of Mallorca. It's not, I mean, the whole peloton is not there, but still, a win is a win. Winning is difficult. And the way, especially the way he rode today, was quite impressive. I mean, those climbs, obviously, in Mallorca are like the ideal terrain for Remco. They're not super steep. They're rolling. You can high speeds. To me, it looked like, obviously, listen, he went all out, but it looked like he was on a training ride, obviously. He was not, but, you know, he did. I think he's very happy with his start at Red Bull. I mean, what else can you wish for, you know? I mean, there's a lot of talk in the offseason about this transfer. A lot of people around him, this team of super experts, scientists, that he was supposedly lacking at Sudol Quickstep. They're all behind him. I was surprised, actually. I mean, listen, it's a bit ridiculous in my opinion, but that's what happens when you have these resources. But if you see Remco arrives, I don't know how many staff people I've counted. I mean, there was guys there who was from the staff and there was no time. There was so many people. There was no time for some of them to congratulate him because there was just no space. There's so many people around him. That's definitely a new trend to a lot of these teams. It's an arms race for staff. How much staff can you hire? Yeah. Yeah. But anyways, listen, it seems to work there. So off to a great start. So that's that. I mean, it's better than starting on the wrong foot and having to catch up with your form or your race strategy or whatever is not on point. They seem to be on point with everything. So that's obviously a great start for him and them. Yeah, it's big for Rimko. And it's maybe even bigger for Red Bull Bora. because this was a big swing they took and it's starting off as good. It's also a home race for them, kind of. I think they are the only world tour team that kept, stayed loyal to Mallorca. There's been years where there was a lot of teams and I think they're probably the only one who stays there. They did all their training camps there. So, yeah. They know a home race, that's for sure. Yeah. So let's take a quick break to hear from some partners, and then we'll get into... I want you to explain to me why Unibet Rose Rockets is not going to the Tour, why Kahurall is going instead. And we're going to get into some financial issues at Picnic Post and L and across the bike industry in general. Okay, Johan, so I was shocked to see this news. I thought Unibet was just a shoo-in for the Tour, because I was looking at the rankings. I thought, well, the tour is not going to invite a Spanish Pro Conte team because I don't even know if I ever remember that happening. But no, they're not. They're not going. Cahu Raul is going instead. But because of the way the Vuelta sets up their wild cards, there's three. Essentially, there used to be, I guess, four. But now there's three viable second division Spanish teams that can go to a Grand Tour as a wild card team. That's Cahu Rol, Burgos BH, and Equipo Kern Pharma. The Vuelta only gets two invites every year. So they invite two of those three. One gets left out. So for the Vuelta this year, it's going to be Burgos Kern Pharma. Yeah, and Burgos. So Cahu Rol is not going to the Vuelta. That left them with, if they want to do a Grand Tour, they can do the Giro or the Tour. I thought they were going to go to the Giro. No, the tour invites them instead of you know, bet. I guess, Tetema Rose Rockets is what they're called now. And now you know that going to the zero instead as the wildcard team Why Why is this happening Well you said Spencer there this I mean there seems to be this rotation in Spain So Burgos and Kernfarma were not invited last year because Cajarural went. And I'm thinking that Husqvarna also was there last year. Yeah, they were. I remember them there. But then now I look at the rankings and you have to be in the top 30 to be invited to a Grand Tour. And they're not in the top 30. So they're out already. Anyway, they were going to be out anyways. Even within the top 30, they were going to be out anyways because they had their spot last year. I mean, listen, they left Cairn Pharma out last year. And the year before, they had won three stages in the world. Yeah. So that's the system. So already Caja Rural was not going to be at the Vuelta. The Vuelta and the Tour are owned by the same company, right? It's ASO. So the fact that Caja Rural is not at the Vuelta is an advantage. But the main reason is very simple, Spencer. From the top of my head, I think in the rankings, their 25th team. Arkea is out and Intermarché is out. So they're 23rd. So they are the first team of all the wild cards, a part of the automatic wild cards. Also, the tour starts in Spain, in Barcelona. Caja Rural is a team with a lot of history. They're around for a very long time. the company Cajarural is a very powerful company in Spain it's a bank with with all of history also probably some political power some you know there's been some lobbying behind the scenes for sure so I'm not surprised I think it's it's the logical straightforward choice it's the first team that was available for all the wild cards and then yeah I mean I think everybody got caught up a bit in the hype of uh the rockets rose rockets or whatever they what are they called now the rose yeah rose rockets and they have a very for people that don't know they have a very active and popular youtube channel which is how they funded the team for a long time initially yeah so i think that's that's a bit the the the unhappiness on on with the fans and social media because it is a very popular team. But then I saw one of the directors of ASO saying that, and on top of that, they made a strategic decision, I think two years ago to actually register as a French team. It's a French team, you know, but Rose Rock, it's like French license. But the identity is not French. It's the identity, it's a Dutch team, right? Well, and I looked this up. legally you can't be a dutch team and have a gambling sponsor so that's also part of the reason okay change to france okay okay um but so yeah um i think the hype was okay let's have the rockets to to the tour of france but um i'm not surprised man i'm not surprised listen i think obviously listen hats off for what these guys are doing right they started from from everybody was saying, are these guys going to start a team? And three years after, they are in contention for a Tour de France spot, which is already amazing on itself. Now they don't get it, but they did some really nice signings. They signed Grunewald and they signed Walt Pools. They signed Victor Lafayette. Both of those guys won tour stages fairly recently. All three of those guys. Three of them. But yeah, I think it's just that they're going to have to wait for another one or two years. And I think they took it really in a nice way. Obviously, they're super disappointed. Everybody wants to be at the Tour de France. But honestly, I think another year or another two years would probably be better for them to consolidate the team more and have a deeper team still to go to the Tour de France. And they're going to get there eventually if they stay around. and there's no reason to think why they wouldn't stay around. So it's just, yeah, they're going to have to be in the waiting room for another year at least. But I think it's logical. I think Caja Rural is the first available team in the rankings. So based on that, I think ASO made the logical choice. And I assume they're going to go to the Giro with Dylan Gronenwegen now, which when they signed Gronenwegen, I thought, well, they must be going to the tour. They must know. And he could maybe win a tour stage. But I think he has a much better chance of winning a Giro stage. These Giro sprints are a lot softer than tour sprints, especially if your team is not the best competing against the best leadouts in the world at the tour. The Giro is different. I mean, he could realistically win a Giro stage, which would be massive for that team. That would make their season. Yeah, and they have Lafe can win a Giro stage. Kubis, Walt Puss, still win a stage from the breakaway. Kubik or what is this Kubis Lucas Kubis yeah he's really good that guy's really good so they have a bunch of riders who could win a Giro stage and I think actually it's kind of the next logical step right I mean straight away to the Tour de France I think it's a bit too much wishful thinking honestly if you're really honest yeah yeah that's a good point you know I mean for example okay they have this new sponsor Rose Bikes right it's an online bike manufacturer uh but that brand doesn't even make time trial bikes you know they they i mean they were open about it they made an agreement with ridley and they bought ridley's and they painted them with in the rose colors so that means that they still have some work to do right to be i know another i know a team that went to the tour without time trial bikes did pretty well yeah 25 years ago i love i love that the track and it's so clearly a light speed titanium bike yeah that was yeah trek was not happy about that let me tell you it's like i just with that picture is everywhere in the u.s too yeah i know if you really look closely spencer and it was such a bad paint job it was such a bad thing did you have a Dave Bolsch paint that the night before? It was really like, it was like spray painted. Like, you know, it was crazy. It was unbelievable. So for the listeners, you know, it was Lance. In the first tour in 1999, he rode a light speed bike. Time for a bike. Painted, you know, plain blue with like strange Trek stickers on it. It looked like someone like drew Trek on that. No, no, no. It was stickers, but it was actually, it was very ghetto. Very ghetto. pretty funny but but this this does make sense yeah i think we i got caught up in hype too we were a little too excited this is better i think this is better for them in the long run i think you're right um it's a funny story about kaho overall it's a big team historic team you would know this team there was a race in boulder and my friend was in the front group and there was a guy from kaho roll and he attacked and he didn't go with him and the guy stayed away and won obviously I was like, why didn't you follow him? He's like, I didn't even know what that team was. Like, what is that team? I'd never heard of it before. I'm like, they're pretty good, man. Maybe follow them. No, but I mean, like historically, like even in the, I would say in the 80s, they already had a team. I mean, Pedro Delgado was on that team. Marino Lejareta was on that team. That team, I mean, that sponsor has been around for a long time. I mean, obviously then they were out for a bit and then they came back. But it's a super powerful company in the Basque country. So in the north of Spain. It's a bank as well. Bank, yeah. Caja is like a savings bank. It's the bank of, yeah, it's little banks, but it's super powerful. There's a lot of banking tradition in the north of Spain, like Santander. I assume it's from San... Banco is from Bambria. Yeah. It's from Bambria, yeah. must be from all this shipping throughout the years, I guess. But that's another podcast for another day, digging into Spanish banking and how that relates to ASO. But other news that came across our desk, I thought this was super interesting. So we've been talking for a long time. Why did Picnic Post and L sell Oscar Onley? They allegedly got 6 million euros to sell Onley to Ineos. Very good writer got fourth in the tour last year. and we were discussing it more like, wow, this is a big risk. You know, this is what they do. They sell riders mid contract. They get money for it. How long can this playbook work? This is a little aggressive, but the money in sports sub stack. And I don't, I could not find a credited author on this, which would make it, which would, I guess you should take it with a grain of salt. But if you read this piece, they do have a lot of documentation. It doesn't look like they made this up. Someone did a lot of research when they were doing this. The headline is they lost 19.5 million euros over the last three years. And like, you can't really lose money as a cycling team because you don't have any assets. You don't really make any money. So if a sponsor is giving you $10, you should spend nine, maybe save a dollar for the next year's maybe, maybe spend 10 and try to run it again next year. Exactly the way you are, but they're losing money. And there's apparently 14.6 million euros in debt. So that would also explain why they need that money from the Onley sale. And this person, this journalist listed out the 2024 budgets for teams that have to declare, they have to file reports basically with their government. Visma's first at 52 million euros for 2024. Picnic is last, 11.7 million euro budget. and you might think, well, that's a lot of money. Well, that's a lot less than 52 million. And the thing that's expensive for running a cycling team is the salaries. So just for an example, Visma spent 63% of their budget on salaries. Decathlon, 59%. Those are pretty good numbers. Picnic spent 134% of its budget on salaries. So it's spending far more than it's making just paying people their salaries. That's not a good spot to be in. Well, first of all, Spencer, my first question would be, how is this possible? How can you spend $130 of what you don't have? So I've always had questions about this team. And it never really made sense to me. Because I know the sponsors that came and go. If you look at the history of that team, they had sponsors. some people didn't even know that they existed then they change sometimes in the middle of the year I mean there must be some kind of sponsor or wealthy individual behind because I mean it's a while ago I'm not gonna be right saying it's 10 years ago or 15 years ago I don't remember how long ago but I remember one year this team started the season and they didn't have a sponsor and they had they made up this strange name like for i something for i a weird formula like a formula whatever it was it meant nothing yeah yeah what was it for yeah if you go through the history of the team you'll see and then it became argos oil or something um and the the argos deal also seemed to be like just the front for whatever it was argos shimano for a while before that was it not there was a time it's called there was a four in it it was just a number like 4x or 4i whatever um it's not on the okay i is it IT4I or something? Yes, something like that. Yeah, so that was not a company. That was just something awaiting the arrival of a sponsor. But in the meantime, people have to get paid. So there must be some kind of funding behind that is not public. Otherwise, it's just not possible. I mean, the proof is, I mean, if you have $11 million and you spend 130% on that on salary, that's not the total budget. Because you have operation costs, you have a lot of other running costs. So it's probably 150%, 160% that you need to run the team. So, I mean, nowadays, Spencer, with 11 million, you can't be in the world tour. It's impossible. No, no. It's impossible. So I said, you know, I've always, I never understood how that team worked. But now if I see those numbers, then, yeah, I mean, what is it? $19 million? $19 million. Yeah, 19 million euros in losses over the last three years. So the way that the dollar is devaluating by the second, that could be $100 million by tomorrow. We don't know. But we got to start getting paid in euros, Johan. You're fine, but that's not good for me. I had a deal a few years ago where I was getting paid in British pounds. And it like you can get like a 30 raise just on the changes in the way the currency is training It kind of interesting but I the the article suggests that I mean I don I I I just gonna say the articles suggest that DSM in the CEO of DSM is covering these losses. That's their, their best guess, whether it's DSM or not, you're right. It's gotta be somebody. It's same thing with Visma. Someone's covering that. It was considerable over the years. I mean, I'd love to, I love to do the math one day on all the riders with contracts that left that team. That's in the millions. Oh, yeah. Many millions that were income that was not accounted for initially. So we all know who Oscar only left now. I mean, now it's clear also they could not have kept him. They just could not have kept him, right? because a guy who was fought in the tour wants a raise. They couldn't give him the raise. They couldn't commit for multiple years. Let's not forget also, Spencer, that this article, I haven't read it, but it makes sense because if we go back to a few months ago when the world tour licenses were attributed, they only got it for one year and they need to be revised for the next two years because they didn't have any financial guarantees for uh 27 and 28 so uh it kind of all starts adding up and uh starts to make uh yeah starts to make sense now that they definitely in financial trouble i mean they must have been shopping him during the tour that he was getting fourth because there's just no way they could have kept him yeah and then yeah you know look at look at uh i mean okay bardet bardet uh retire so that was a big salary oscar only changes teams plus they get a big bonus for his sales i mean they need to do these kind of things and they didn't get anybody of a you know considerable salary due to in in the place not not of only but also not for bardet so um they're getting cheaper and cheaper yeah and well we'll keep people informed of this i thought this was a pretty good piece thank you money and sport for publishing it I would get you're right someone's covering this but it just make me wonder are they going to try to sell this license at some point and get out was the only part of the unraveling of this the thing is selling something that is not very successful is not easy you know they're in the world tour the only way they can be they can stay in the world tour if somebody comes in and guarantees financially 27 and 28 but then you know, who, who are they going to sign? Right. I mean, who, which big names they, they, they almost need to have riders from their development program, step up and score points to remain in the world tour. Yeah. I think it's not, it's, it's not, I mean, they got third today, did they know in the, in the Alula tour, you know, this guy, it's funny, funny signing. Actually, this, This guy was a Cat 3 rider, and he got second in the World Championships gravel. The guy who got third today in Alula. What's his name? His name is Fritz, but I like to think it's Fritz. Fritz. I think this guy, if I'm not mistaken, I hope I have the right guy. Let me just check. No, he did get second in World Championships last year. He was basically a club rider. He was on beat cycling. They're not a pro team. They're like a third category team. And so, I mean, these kind of guys obviously are interesting. They're cheap and they score points. But, you know, they're going to need a lot of Fritz guys to score points and remain in the World Tour with the points. I mean, this guy must be a massive engine. He got second at a Cebu Tour time trial last year and won the Dutch gravel championships. I mean, he got to be. And second in the world. Second in the world. And he beat Thibaut Del Grasso. Yeah, he was the guy who could stay the longest with Florian Vermeer. yeah so he's clearly but that's what this team is really good at is like they pull rabbits out of but they are pushing this to the limit the way they're shedding talent and then asking people to step up there is a breaking point at a certain point but now we know it's out of necessity they don't this is not a measured and also spencer i fear for i fear for them because you know now that it's known that they're in financial trouble this is a this is a snowball effect you know it's obviously not great for the motivation of the guys you know they're they're gonna be now in a situation where okay am i gonna get paid next month right because we are not the only ones who are reading this article and now that we're talking about it they're obviously gonna know about it too i mean not everybody reads the stuff sub stack articles but uh this is gonna be copied on on other outlets uh so this is not great for the team and for the atmosphere of the writers and the staff. And once this atmosphere starts to be, you know, doubts and everybody's talking to each other, it's, it's difficult to stay focused, motivated and to perform. Yeah. And I was talking to Kevin Vermarka, who came from picnic to UAE. And we were kind of, I don't know if we've had this conversation in public or private, but it's like, that's kind of a weird move. If you go from being a leader to now you're a worker, but I was talking to him at their training camp and he he didn't say anything specifically but you could sense he was so much more relaxed and like almost relieved to be off that ship and to be at a team where you're at this everything just exudes wealth around the uae team and that has to have been a big reason like i'm just going to go to this team i know that i know the check's going to clear every month and i don't have to worry about it anymore and you're right it's going to make it really hard to sign riders now that this is public yeah for sure before we take off jonas vindergaard crashed in training earlier this week he was i i wish i'd done a little bit they're calling it an amateur writer but i have questions about if it could truly be an amateur was following him on a descent it sounds like he was trying to push it this is all the person who was behind him wrote a Strava post about this yeah that apparently he was pushing it to drop the guy the guy comes up to him you know later on the descent he has crashed his face which is not good it's never good to crash on the descent if you're you know just for your training and stuff but he crashes and then we have a question from a reader about it before you respond I'm just going to read this question and it's going to kick us into this conversation this is from Alec. Alec says I saw Jonas Vinagard crash in a descent in training today it looks like some fan and we'll come back to that term fan was following him and Jonas maybe pushed a little harder than necessary leading to the crash. My question for you guys is why are these riders required to wear their team jerseys on training rides? It seems like there's a bunch of pseudo paparazzi fans like Johan and I that just want to follow the pros everywhere. This has to be annoying for the guys as well as occasionally more dangerous. I know the team jerseys have sponsors on them, but for training rides, who really cares? I feel like riders will be happier being anonymous and basically just wearing like black kit. Like when people used to train with Ferrari when they weren't supposed to, and they'd wear blacked out kits. Curious about your thoughts and if there are any rules where you could do this. But I would say first thing, Johan, these fans, and we've been these fans before, you know these riders' riding styles so well. Even if Jonas is in a blacked out kit, we would know who it is. And a lot of people would know who it is. I mean, especially, I mean, I think he seems to have some kind of property in the south of Spain, no? Because he's there often. Yeah. so yeah whether he's in the visma or in a normal and not a kid you know the the cycling fans know that he's there yeah you know you know and on top of that if you see a guy pass whether it's on a server low bike or a time trial bike or you know you can see the style you can see the style i mean you can see okay this is this is a pro and uh there's not that many riders there in in in andalucia so all the guys who ride bikes know that Jonas is there for sure I think it's a question of and also I think we have to take it with a grain of salt whether Jonas was pushing it or not I don't think so I think it's just an unfortunate crash these guys don't push it to drop cyclotourists or even amateur riders they don't push it they just do their thing you know who have even even a well-trained amateur they can only follow and until the the pro rider decides okay you know i'm gonna push it a bit harder now well that's what i was gonna say is the moment they want to push it 99 percent of people can't stay with them yeah you drop so um i i think you know what i take away from it is jonas's reaction was probably okay he was obviously disappointed and pissed off that he crashed uh it's definitely not the rider the the rider who tried to follow his fault because he was not even there so he was he only saw him in the corner and he went to check on him if he was okay and jonas was you know disappointed and pissed off probably first of all with himself i i've got to say i've been this guy before where you crash and people try to help you and you're so pissed with yourself you know you don't want anybody to make pictures because i mean you know a rider who crashes on training a professional rider it's like okay you feel you feel like a dumbass you know because you say okay you know so i'm i would take it with a grain of salt um usually i mean i see you know there's some influencers i mean we met uh our ukrainian friend in uh in company who writes at the pros all the time you know the pros know these guys you know usually these guys who film and make videos that first of all they know the writers they're friends with them they ask for permission i know for example our ukrainian friend he always asks for permission to write with them they usually have no problem and if they say no rather not then you know he they respect the the guy who whether they have to do exercises or they don't want to be filmed or whatever right so um what i think is the most dangerous is uh you know like you're real real cycling tourists who are there and all of a sudden they see these guys coming they take out their phone and they want to take a selfie you know or film a little that's dangerous um but but i would say in 90 percent of the cases uh the guys who want to ride on the wheel of professionals they ask for permission and usually the pro guy will say you know what it's fine as long as you don't follow me until my garage door you know at my house uh but it's no i think in this case um yeah uh it's the guys don't really mind uh because they all know that once they are in their zone and they have to do their intervals you know there's nobody can follow them not even very well trained amateur riders it's impossible to follow a top professional i mean if you go to artem's youtube page is super interesting he'll do these zone two rides with with bogotcher and he puts his power on the screen i mean he's doing artem's probably doing 350 watts yeah on the zone two rides there's a limit to how long and on the downhills i mean jonas vindergaard he's not known as like a daredevil descender he would drop me so fast on a downhill if he wanted to you know like i'm not professional rider would drop yeah it's like on the even like the ua team camp was kind of on the side of a hill mountain and it was not a steep climb but the way they would start their rides you would you get dropped so fast yeah you just a normal person can't stay with them so i don't know if it's a epidemic going around that people are crashing these rides and you could imagine it being a problem you know a certain way yeah what we can say in in the case of jonas it's definitely not because it's overpopulated with amateur riders who want to make selfies of professionals because he's training on the lucia if you go to you know benidorm calpe altea that's different It's becoming, in my opinion, it's becoming a problem. For example, if you go to Calderat, nowadays it's an infestation of bike riders. And the professionals for some, I mean, they're going to, ultimately, they're going to go away from Calderat because it's becoming too much. And you can't really do what you have to do because you have to navigate between all the riders who want to go up there. Yeah. Yeah. I got to go to Mount Lemmon. That'll be the next spot. Well, Johan, do you have anything else to add before we take off? I think we've covered most of the news, Spencer. We'll be back very soon on Monday, no? With our up and comer show? Monday with our up and comer show. So we got to get those lists built over the weekend. That's a very important show every year. And then we should try to check in on our up and comers from last year, how they panned out. Let's do that. Yeah. Let's start the show with that. And then, yeah. Okay. All right, Johan. Well, I'll see you soon. And we'll be back for the Move Plus at the end of the week as well. So we'll talk to everybody soon. Okay. Thanks, Spencer. Okay. Bye.