Trump Accelerates Superpower Decline as XI Plays the Long Game (ft. Sarah Longwell)

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Follow Unexplainable wherever you get your podcasts. So Donald Trump is incredibly unpopular. I think he can become even less popular over the summer months. We are about to head into the summer driving and travel months. You want to barbecue, your meat's more expensive. You want to drink, your drink's more expensive. You want to fly, your flight's more expensive. You want to drive, your gas is more expensive. What I would like to see from Democrats right now is just to take the rage that people feel. Because what I hear from voters is complete rage. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. Jess is off today. But Real Street, we're joined by Sarah Longwell from The Bull Work. Sarah is the publisher and host of the Focus Group podcast. And the author of the upcoming book, How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter at a Time, which comes out in September. Sarah, it's so nice to have you here. So nice to be here. You know, I've done this with Jessica, but not with you. So this is a different vibe. Oh, really? Yeah, definitely. It's definitely a downgrade. But just a quick ad. If you haven't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay up to date on all the political news. Before we bust into it, actually, Sarah, I would love to just get the cliff notes on your backstory. I know you, but I don't know much about you. Can you give us the cliff notes? Yeah. I guess it depends on how far you go back. But I grew up in Central Pennsylvania, a small town, about 800 people. Went to Kenyon College in Ohio. Became kind of a Republican-ish, was always sort of a center-right John McCain type Republican. I worked for a conservative think tank right out of college that was very much a bad fit for me. It was very culturally and socially conservative, intellectually, socially conservative. And Rick Santorum published his book with them. And I was the young comms person at the time. And so I had to be on the road with Santorum at a time when I was trying to come out to my family. Like it was like right, just right in that moment. It's like on the road with Rick Santorum, trying to tell my mom I'm gay. And so then I went and became a gay marriage advocate, but I also worked in sort of center-right policy for the next 15 years. And then Trump came along and I was out on Trump immediately. Even though I was never a big fan of the Clintons, I became a big Hillary Clinton stan in 2016. But once Trump won, I basically had to leave my Republican job. I had to leave the things behind that I had been doing because I really wanted to fight Trump. So I started the bulwark. And in doing so, I started doing focus groups to understand Republican voters because I thought Trump was an accident of history. But he was not. And in listening to Republican voters, I sort of realized at that moment how disconnected the conversations we have in Washington are from average voters. And I have since then spent the last eight years doing nothing but listening to voters, which has really changed how I think about politics. I think that's, yeah. It's so pat, better passe, but you get to a point where in your podcast studio and reading your curated media, I consistently worry because of my age and the bubble I'm in that I'm getting to the point where I don't know what I don't know. And I've always found, I used to be a market researcher, I always found ethnographies and focus groups were a great way, or a great eye opener to say, wow, my assumptions are so way off. I always say, every time I came out of a focus group, I thought, wow, I just, I didn't realize what I didn't know. Anyways, I think that's one of your strengths and you constantly reference your focus group. So let's get into it. President Trump arrives in China tomorrow for a two day formal summit with President Xi Jinping. It's Trump's first time in the country since 2017 and the first meeting between the two leaders since October. Well, the focus is meant to be on everything from rare earth export controls to Taiwan artificial intelligence. Much of the trip is likely overshadowed by the current situation in Iran. Here's Trump setting the tone yesterday. He and I have had a great gentleman, I find him to be an amazing, an amazing man. And when I say that, the press always says, oh, that's terrible that he called it. He runs 1.4 billion people with a pretty iron fist. He's, he loves his country. I can tell you that, President Xi, I look forward to being there. And if he felt anything, we wouldn't, we wouldn't be doing it. But a lot of good things can happen. We'll be talking about, I mean, he'll bring up Taiwan, I think more than I will. Sarah, set the table for us here. What do you think each brings to the table in terms of leverage and what each is hoping from the summit? Look, I think that China has Trump's number and has for a while. Like they are, you know, they're trade allies with Iran. They have, they are, they are helping Iran right now in this war. And I think they understand that as long as they flatter Trump, like this is what Xi knows. If you flatter Trump and you pat him on the head and you roll out the red carpet, that Trump just will, will kind of cave for you. In 2017, when the last time he was there, people still had sort of Trump's mad men theory of politics. The other world leaders did too. This guy's really unpredictable. He could do crazy things. But Xi's got him over a barrel now, right? Like what they're doing, what they're in their best interest now is for America to be in a sort of long simmering conflict with Iran, while China becomes the world power because we are committing superpower suicide in real time. China seeks to fill that vacuum. And so they're, they're, they're helping Iran right now. And they know that if they just flatter Trump, that he won't do anything to them. You hear Trump there. You can hear Trump's admiration for the fact that Xi rules his country with an iron fist. And so I just think they know how to play him and they will flatter him and then they will eat his lunch along the way. Yeah, just to contrast the last time President Trump was in China 2017 versus China today. Since then, China's high speed rail network has doubled from 25,000 to 50,000 kilometers. EVs went from Maneesh to the majority of all new car sales in China. By the way, 70% of all EVs sold globally are now manufactured in China. BYD, no one had heard of it. Now it is the dominant EV manufacturer globally. China now installs more than half of all industrial robots on earth. 55% of the global EV battery market. They're producing 90% of the world's humanoid robots. If you were to distill it down, I would say in 2017, China was America's or excuse me, China was the world's first. China was the world's factory. Now it's trying to become the operating system for advanced manufacturing. It's moving up the stack into software. So beyond this sort of glad-handing and rolling out the red carpet and giving them awards and trinkets, do you think that Xi has any objective in terms of policy or agreements? Do you think Trump is going to try? I mean, everyone talks about the rare earth leverage they have on us. We also have a decent amount of leverage in terms of I think chips. It strikes me that this is about interdependence, whereas we're used to having a hegemony and having total leverage at every conversation we have. Now we have sort of this, I don't know, we have someone pretty big and powerful across the table that we need to get a, or I think we need to at least cooperate with. What do you think they're ideally, they're each hoping to walk away with? I mean, I think that Trump would like China to help us with Iran. Like I think he wants us to not have to, you know, he wants to say to them, why are you helping Iran? Why are you pumping them up or supporting them in this war? And China isn't going to give that up at all. They stand to gain by us being in this conflict with Iran. And so I think that's what Trump wants. What Xi wants is everything, right? I mean, they want to be the world superpower. They want people to be dependent on them. And I think that it's a multi-step process, but right now it's, we're going from hegemony to the way where, like you said, okay, so interdependence, but that means that we are as dependent on them. I mean, Trump's going there looking for money too, right? Like he's talking now about having China invest enormous sums of money in the United States. They own a great deal of our debt. I just think what we're watching is us committing superpower suicide while they slowly figure out how to become the world superpower and fill the vacuum that we're leaving. Yeah. Speaking of kind of slow moving suicide, I was talking to James King from our podcast China Decode, who was with the FT and now is with Chatham House Research. And he was saying the economic capture of China is very strategic and very effective. And that is GlaxoSmithKline, the largest company in the UK and the largest companies in Germany, now have the majority of their R&D infrastructure and facilities in China. And not only is China producing stuff, but it's financing it. And so if a government recognizes that, okay, such as Germany, we are slowly but surely having our windpipe strangled by China, who steals our IP and then sells us our stuff back for 60 cents on the dollar kind of gutting the manufacturing base of Germany. The first people to say, no, don't do anything, our Volkswagen, Daimler, Benz, Siemens, because the majority of their manufacturing and R&D is now in China. And they're not there for the long game. It feels as if I would argue almost the worst thing they could do is create that sort of opportunity for economic capture here in the United States. Any thoughts, Sarah? I certainly think that's what China wants. And I think that Trump's not... I mean, let me ask you this, because you have this depth of knowledge in the various industries and the intertwined, the way in which America is intertwined with China economically. How do you think Trump is going to be able to negotiate on America's behalf right now? What do you think his level of understanding is? He's Mr. Art of the Deal, but what do you think he knows really? What do you think the depth of his knowledge is about China and how they're operating? So I've bought and sold a lot of businesses. And when I was younger, I used to think that your dream was to find someone on the other side of this table that was stupid, such that you could sell your company for more than it was worth or buy a company for less than it was worth. And what I soon learned is the way you get deals done is by dealing with people who are smart. Yes. And the problem is Donald Trump, in my view, is a nepo baby who, if he had invested his inheritance in the S&P, he'd be much wealthier than he is right now, had it not been for a corrupt criminal crypto scam. I think this individual is not only a bad business person, but he's even worse than that, and that is he thinks he's a brilliant business person. And the problem with these types of summits or a Trump summit is that 98% of the work is done beforehand with our great diplomatic corps, with our great security agencies, with our great ambassadors, and people who are qualified as opposed to people who take some sort of loyalty oath. So he shows up believing that his instincts are really strong, and he's sitting across the table from someone, as you said, because this guy is not smart. He has changed tariff policy 17 times since Independence Day. So in this goes to Iran, how do you even negotiate with someone who you don't know what they're going to say that afternoon? Right. They don't see, you can't even outline what his objectives are. This is the worst of all words. He shows up naked with no advanced team, no good intelligence, no clear objectives, and the people driving this for Trump will be the comms team trying to come up with something totally illusory, no substance, all fluff to announce some sort of big deal, and he'll come back claiming a victory. And our trade representatives and our companies will have nothing to show for it. What was interesting is that he's taking with him CEOs, Tim Cook and Elon Musk. What's interesting is he's not taking Jensen Huang, who's probably the most relevant CEO. And the other thing is that we decided to play hardball around their rares and withhold their chips. And now that NVIDIA has got the green light to sell chips in, China said, no thanks, we're going to make our own chips and we're not going to buy your own most advanced chips because we think we can pull an old Navy and get 80% of your H100 hoppers or whatever they're called for 40% of the price. But I don't, I think this is absolutely the worst person in the world to negotiate with because I'll make one last analogy. I was in, when I was much younger, in a relationship with someone who was bipolar, and you didn't know who you were waking up next to. And that's the problem of the geopolitical stage right now is nobody knows who they're waking up next to in terms of the biggest superpower, what they're going to do or say that day. Any thoughts, Sarah? Well, the only thing that I'll say is that I think you do know. I mean, what does Trump want? Trump wants to go be a regional bully, right? He wants to take on Venezuela. He's not capable of getting in the ring with China. This is sort of my point is like when you're like, well, what is the leverage and who are into that you're walking in with Trump. It's not even America with its sort of the bigness of all all of the people who might be negotiating this. Trump can blow it all up in an instant. And so he will go in there and vomit up whatever he does and we'll all have to live with it. But he's not really interested in taking on China. He's scared of China. He knows though, outsmart him. He wants to go do the Venezuela stuff, the Cuba stuff, where he can be a big regional bully and where there's no real upside long term for America. He doesn't understand basic game theory. When you keep signaling that the war is ending soon in Iran, they have no reason to negotiate or offer anything up because similar to what Ho Chi Minh said in the Vietnam War, they will kill many of our people. We will kill some of theirs. They will tire. They will leave. That's the IRGC. That's what I would be thinking of the IRGC. All we have to do, we don't have to win. We don't have to win over our people. We just have to survive and eventually they will tire and leave. And in terms of his ability to assess the competition, I mean, he shows up having done no homework and in my opinion, not having any real sense for his leverage. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. If you want to redefine your idea of relaxation, try Sol instead. Sol is a wellness brand that makes delicious hemp derived CBD and THC products designed to make feeling good simple. Sol's new mood gummies have precise dosing, clean ingredients and formulations designed for predictable effects. So you can choose how you want to feel while staying in control. Their uplift gummies are perfect for daytime plans or beating the afternoon slump. When it's time to wind down, their mellow gummies are ideal for cozy nights and fully unplugging. And if you want something in between, their ballad's gummies give an easy, versatile feeling. 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As the economic fallout from the war is mounting, gas prices at top 450 gallon nationwide and Trump is now floating at federal to gas tax holiday. Trump also says the month long ceasefire with Iran is on massive life support after rejecting Iran's latest counteroffer despite admitting he didn't fully read it. Let's listen to a clip. For the time being, the ceasefire remains in place. It's unbelievably weak, I would say. I would call it the weakest right now after reading a piece of garbage they sent us. I didn't even finish reading it. They said I'm going to waste my time reading it. I would say it's one of the weakest right now. It's on life support. They understand these are all medical people. Dr. Oz, life support is not a good thing. Do you agree? Diagnostic. I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support where the doctor walks in and says, sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living. Sarah, you're out there talking to Americans from both sides of the aisle. Give us the vibe from America right now, where we are with the state of Iran. People are furious. And look, a year ago when I was doing focus groups in 2025, there was a lot of sort of wait and see. Rome wasn't built the day. We got to give Trump time. He's working on it. And that is not what you hear today. What you hear today, we start every focus group the same way. How do you think things are going in the country? And everybody says, terrible. And they mean both the tenor and the tone of the country. It feels like we're ready to go to war with each other. They mean gas prices and affordability. Nobody can afford anything. People immediately jump to the economy and how bad it is. Their frustrations with Trump are almost exclusively around how much things cost and the fact that he promised to lower prices and they are not lower. And people are starting to get pitchfork at the ready over this. Now, of course, there's different types of people, right? So Dems obviously hate him and it's the independence though. It's the Hispanic voters, young voters, the red-pilled voters, people who said specifically, I'm going to vote for Trump because I think he's the president of peace. I think Kamala is going to get us into a war and he's not. Those people are all furious because they feel the worst feeling in politics is feeling duped like you've been lied to. And that's how those voters feel. But then Trump's own voters. When I listen to, we do a lot of groups that we call Trump disapprovers. So people who voted for Trump, but now rate him as doing a very bad job. And those groups, when you screen for those, you often can just see how many available people there are who fit that mode. And we've just seen that number going up and up and up because people who voted for him, even if they are still willing to say, you know, I like Trump, I'm rooting for Trump, I think, you know, I'm trying to trust the plan. But they're saying, but I can't afford anything. Like this is just like, like for them, the personal consequences are so real. I was went to Pennsylvania for Mother's Day back home and saw it was in rural Pennsylvania. Gas is almost five bucks. Like you get $5 gas in rural Pennsylvania. People really feel it and it's not coming down like the Iran. The thing that I think people do not realize how bad this Iran situation is. You cannot get out of this quickly. He is not he's not going to he is in a people are going to have to start using the word quagmire because that's what it is. There is no way out of this in which America comes out better than when when Trump went in. And the voters know that there's one other just one other quick thing, which is oftentimes there are consequences to actions, but voters don't know who to blame for them. And so again, going back to last year, you heard a lot of people talking about the economy and blaming Biden. Trump, though, he owns this war and he owns the tariffs like in the voters minds. He owes them not in the pundits minds, not us saying it. The voters know those are his signature policies. He did this. He didn't go to Congress. And so the results, the repercussions of those voters hold him accountable for those. So I never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Because when I look at the polls, I don't think hating Trump as a unifying theory or message for the Democrats going into the midterms or 28. And I feel as if their efforts right now are really fragmented and there's some energy on the far left. There's some superstars, but they don't seem to be singing off the same hymn sheet. And my understanding is the Democratic Party hasn't surged in popularity as Trump has declined in popularity. What let's use this as a jumping off point for the midterms. In addition to the redistricting, which feels like quite frankly has been a creative to the Republicans efforts. How do you think the midterms are shaping up? Are Democrats going to be on the positive receiving end of Trump's disapproval or is it just people are just fed up and won't turn out? What is, how are the midterm shaping up according to Sarah Longwell? Well, it's in flux right now because we have had this redistricting news. And I got to say, I can't sugarcoat it. The redistricting stuff is really bad for Democrats. I think the environment went from an absolute certain pickup for Dems, absolute certain, you know, like 10 seat pickup, 15 seat pickup to now being much more in doubt. I still think Democrats will win, but I think they have to basically win the popular vote now by at least four points in order to pick up enough seats that they have, you know, a three seat. Majority. Now, I absolutely think that can be done in this environment. And let me just tell you the thing about. So Donald Trump is incredibly unpopular. I think he can become even less popular over the summer months. We are about to head into the summer driving and travel months. You want to barbecue your meats more expensive. You want to drink your drinks more expensive. You want to fly your flights more expensive. You want to drive your gas is more expensive. What I would like to see from Democrats right now is just to take the rage that people feel because what I hear from voters is complete rage. And I actually reject the frame that we need to be having a factional fight over whether Democrats need to be more moderate or more progressive to win. The voters do not think that way. The voters want to know who is going to go fight Trump? Who is going to go fight for me? Who is going to go lower prices? Who is going to like they just see the reason that Democrats approval ratings are so low is because people in their own party, Democrats in their own party are furious that Democrats aren't doing anything about all of the ways that Trump is breaking the rules. All of the ways that he has corrupt. They do not see Democrats channeling that same rage. They see them as floundering around and not being able to actually do anything. And so Democrats right now, I would, my two thoughts are one, while Republicans are doing all of this stuff to cheat the mid cycle redistricting to squeeze out more seats and Democrats feel impotent in the face of that because of them throwing out the Virginia results where Virginia, Virginians went and voted for that. And then on a technicality, it gets tossed. There's real rage there. Democrats have got to be able to productively harness that rage. You have got to be able to productively move it into a and so because you hear a lot of Dems right now saying, what am I supposed to do? Vote harder. We voted and they threw it out. You've got to help people understand that turning out to vote, that gaining political power in this moment is the only way that you get the reforms that you want down the road. It's the only way to get anything done. But Democrats are going to have to be leaders in this moment and they need to go after Trump. You need to go on offense against Trump. He is doing all of this. And if you drive Trump's numbers below 30 percent and you get because right now, even though Democrats are unpopular because they're unpopular with their own party for not fighting hard enough, you are seeing the split happens where on the generic ballot, Democrats are starting to put up margins that are D plus seven, D plus eight, D plus nine, D plus 10. If they can increase that margin, then they can dramatically overshoot that four percent popular vote. They need four percent to win. They can overshoot that and they can still pick up seats and then they can take back some political power of which they currently have none. And so I do wish that Democrats in Congress would show more leadership to try to harness that rage and not let people just sit there with it and feel impotent because that is the risk that they run. Yeah. Unfortunately, I think that Democrats right now, we're trying to take some cold comfort and believing that, you know, vibes will overcome redistricting, that his approval is decline and approval will overwhelm any redistricting. Let's hope that's true. But redistricting isn't sexy, but it's decisive. The Alabama map changed, the Virginia reversal. These aren't legal technicalities. They're seat allocation decisions disguised as process. And my fear going into the election is that, or my observation is that Americans, or there's a decent swath of Americans, and this is a thesis and I want you to validate and nullify it because you're out there more than I am, but they would opt for wrong and effective than right and impotent. Yes. And they want strength, even if they don't agree with that person, your thoughts. Yeah. I mean, look, I got to say this is a little, this is a challenging, there's some challenging here because right now to me, Democratic voters sound an awful lot like the Republican voters I was listening to eight years ago, which is to say, I'm looking for somebody who will come just break this whole thing up because I feel furious about the state of things. That's how Democrats sound right now. They're like, I am so sick of though, when they go low, we go high. That is a losing strategy and I don't want to do it. And that's why a lot of people are having a conversation about progressive versus centrism as a mechanism to win. And I'm like, you guys don't even have to have that frame at all. You just need to go hard and show people that you're going to lead, that you're going to push, that you're going to fight. And I got to say one thing for the progressives right now, like they are feeling their juice because right now people are so angry on affordability issues. And they're so angry about Israel because they believe that Israel has a lot to do with the reason that we're in the war with Iran, which is why gas prices are high. And so that is sort of given the, let's call it the Mamdani or AOC wing of the party, a lot more juice in this moment. But like they do have to channel that into political victory. And that means not just having a factional fight with other Democrats. It means helping to be a part of this big coalition to go dominate Trump and win back political power. Well, I want to put forward a thesis and just catch a response. And that is there are a few ways I think at this point, one of the wonderful things about America is we like to go the other way, right? Typically we elect presidents who are fairly distinct or different from the previous president. I think that's a healthy component of America. We're serial monogamous, but we get married to different people on a regular basis. And I think one of the few ways we could lose 28 is if we go to the Bernie AOC side of the party. I just don't think that's where America is. I think it's got a lot of juice and a lot of energy, but I don't think that's where America is. And we need, I mean, it just feels to me that if we put up, let me play identity politics, a tall white heterosexual male who's moderate, it's ours to lose. And that giving into the progressive side of the party that I just don't think that's where America is. The swing voters who decide these elections is one of the few ways we could actually quite frankly fuck this up. Your thoughts. I mostly agree with that, although you have to put meat on the bones of what you're saying. So because I got to say the thing about Democrats is that they, and this was a lot of the analysis post-com, I was like, well, we're too racist, we're too sexist. If you think we're too homophobic. All right, well, Democrats have a lot of women. They have a lot of black people and they've got people to judge. And so as a result, you're like, okay, who's left? Who are your tall, straight white men? John Ossoff, Pritzker, Newsom. Do you think Newsom's a moderate? I would describe him as a moderate because I don't know him well, but I sort of know him and I think he's reasonable. I think he's been painted as more left than he actually is. What are your thoughts? My thoughts are that a California Democrat is a tough sell to America always. And I think it would be better if California had a better record to stand on for Newsom running. I would put more of my money on a guy like John Ossoff, although I do think John Ossoff has a little bit of work to do, but I think he's- He sounds very presidential right now. He sounds incredible on the stump. He's tougher actually in situations like this. He doesn't do a lot of the sitting and hanging on podcasts and things that actually is pretty necessary now in this new communications environment. And so he might need to get his reps in on that, but he is to me a pretty close avatar for who I think could win. Now, John Ossoff isn't a moderate, moderate. I think John Ossoff though is you sort of are going to need a bridge in my opinion. Like you need a real leader who both is somehow has moderate tendencies as far as policies. I actually think the moderate progressive frame, I'm sorry, but I'm going to blow it up once again. Americans are actually very clear about what they want. They like a lot of- they want cheaper healthcare. They want somebody who's talking about how they can make life more affordable for people. And so in that regard, they tend to like the more lefty kin. It's why AOC has juice. Like there's people saying, I'm going to make your life easier with all of these policies that I often think are not super workable. But it's like it's like a M'n'dani thing. However, they also want a closed border and they also want to feel safe. Meaning so they don't want people who sound like they're light on crime. Democrats in this moment, Israel is a whole different ballgame than it used to be. And so they're going to want somebody who is thinking about how we reevaluate our relationship with Israel. And so I kind of think the moderate versus progressive thing isn't as relevant as it used to be because the Donald Trump has scrambled the political spectrum to such a degree that it's a little bit more of a hodgepodge and a weird salad to find a candidate who's going to meet the moment. So just with respect to the- by the way, we've gone totally off script, but I'm really enjoying this. The far left, I love their energy on economic issues. I think that's where the superstars in the party are. I just, I think Bernie and AOC capture people's attention and energy. I think they're rock stars. Like the moderates just don't have those rock stars as far as I can tell. The danger I see is if they stuck to economic issues, raise minimum wage, universal childcare, single payer health care coverage, winner and winner, check, check, green light, green light, green light. And let's use Mum Donnie as an example. This Piedoter attacks. And I've said this, it will cost me $100,000 a year if it goes through. I think it's an elegant smart tax. If you have a second home in Manhattan, it means you're doing just fine and have disproportionately benefited from our economy and our weaponization of government by rich people. And you have killed it the last three decades. I'm not- nobody likes to tax. I'm not excited about it. I think it's one of the most elegant ways to tax the people who are not paying their fair share. I am totally down with it. And then as we do on the left, he snatches to feed from the jaws of victory and he goes into identity politics and he doxes a billionaire and he demonizes success. And I believe that if we on the left begin demonizing success and have a thinly veiled narrative that young men don't have problems, they are the problem. The white people are inherently racist, that all billionaires are evil. AOC has said no billionaire has earned their money. Then you are going to lose rich people, men, and to a certain extent a certain amount of white people who feel demonized. I just- I don't see that. I think that is a- a- absolutely losing strategy. Stop the identity politics. Stop demonizing success. Stick to the left issues. Stick to the economic issues. Your thoughts. My thoughts are that when you listen to people, they really want to be rich. They want to- like everybody. People want to be rich. And so you can- you can get squeezed some juice out of people's anger at people who are rich when you're not rich. I think there are good ways to channel that, which might be like Elon or some of the political players and like go after them in general. But you- targeting success is wrong because people want to be successful. What your job is as a politician is to help people see how they too could become successful. Right? Just- the problem with- with it's sort of a lazy place to go of like, well I'm just going to demonize billionaires because that gets me cheers at a progressive rally. Actually good politics is saying to people, America needs a world-class education system so that everybody has a chance to be successful. I want to hire more nurses, better teachers and pay them more. We want- we want community cops who are going to help lift communities up and keep you safe. Like focusing on jobs, hiring and- and people being able to climb the ladder and showing you- showing them that you're going to help them. Be on working people's side. Be on working people's side. But they want to know how they can get ahead. And that's what you have to show them. It's not just class warfare. Let's take one last quick break. I'm Midge First, two-time Indie Resil champion, championship MVP and forward for the US Women's National Team. Before I went pro, I graduated from Harvard with a degree in psychology. Which comes in handy, more than you think. Any athlete pursuing greatness knows there's a certain mentality you have to have. What people don't know is what that costs. In my podcast, Confessions of an Elite Athlete, I sit down with the best athletes in the world and explore the psychology, mindset and unseen battles on the path to greatness. So take a seat and learn from the Confessions of an Elite Athlete on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. The Spanish Authorities Complex and unprecedented, the Spanish authorities are calling it. Before the disembarkation, asymptomatic. Passengers who'd been stuck aboard the Hanta or maybe Hantavirus-stricken Dutch cruise ship disembarked in the Canary Islands this weekend, prompting the highest stakes game of where are they now since maybe COVID? Some of the evacuees, American and French, have since tested positive for the virus, and yet public health officials seem remarkably calm. We do have one individual who was taken to the biocontainment unit early this morning, and we assessed that individual. They are doing well. Possibly because this is not the one to freak out over. Today Explained drops every weekday afternoon. Modern Motherhood Modern motherhood has become an unwinnable game. I'm Rabbinard's son and I do not believe in treating exhaustion as proof of love. A good mother is not a depleted one. An ambitious mother who wants to be someone outside of mom is no less obsessed with her kids. This month on Project Swagger, we are defining motherhood on our own terms in a special series, Motherhood The Remix. In the first episode out now, Why Balance is a Myth and How I Started Trusting Myself Over the Noise. Listen or watch now at Project Swagger. Welcome back. Let's move on to what seems like an apprentice style competition that's heating up between Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who Trump calls the kids. I want to play a clip from one of your focus groups of people who voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024 to our audience, and then we can talk about it. Let's listen. As vice president, he really is just a spare. You don't see him doing as much as Marco Rubio, so that's why a lot of attention isn't on him. I just see Marco Rubio as a person that he's more level headed and can speak to somebody without really putting him down. J.D. Vance, I like him, but sometimes he appears too aggressive. They both represent the great American story from their backgrounds, where they came from as young people and how they built themselves up into this. It shows you the quality of the bench of the Republican Party, so I don't think you can lose with either one. Well, so here's what's happening in the focus groups around the Republican side. So J.D. Vance has long been, and voters still think, they're like, well, it's likely to be J.D. Vance, and they're like, I like him okay. But over time, especially the Iran War has been pushing J.D. Vance more and more into the sour spot with voters. And so they start to think about like, well, who else do I like? And to me, it is incredibly fascinating to watch in the groups in real time people start to decide that Marco Rubio is maybe the guy that they like more. And my theory on this is that Marco is almost being memed into political existence, because that meme of him where he's sitting on the couch and everybody says, you know, it's like we take out the dictator in Venezuela and everyone's like, Marco Rubio is now going to run Venezuela. Marco Rubio has to be the kicker for the Packers now. And the kick, you know, like everybody, because what is that is telling people what I'm hearing come back is that Marco Rubio is the one competent person in the Trump administration, right? You got to give Marco all the jobs, because Marco is the only guy who knows what he's doing. And so quickly you are seeing people forget the pre-Trump Marco Rubio, the one that I would have voted for, the one that I liked back in 2015. And they've like forgotten about that guy and they like the mega establishment Marco Rubio, the one that Trump likes, who is also the only adult in this administration and who's also not the guy who isn't J.D. Vance, who they increasingly, the more they see of him think, this guy is just okay. He's not great. So I want to put forward another thesis. My dream ticket as someone who's hoping for a Democrat is Vance Rubio or Rubio Vance, because I believe that Donald Trump is the equivalent of the political equivalent of Chernobyl. And that is if you hang around him for any extended period of time, you die a slow, hideous death of leukemia. Who's done really well from his first administration? Anyone heard from Pence? Or Kelly? Or how about Rex Tillerson, who was fired while in Africa? This guy, Trump doesn't give a shit about the Republican Party. I think he would like to see Republicans lose if it made him look like he was the only one who could do it. I don't think he's going to do anything to help these guys. And they are going to have the same cancer, leukemia, radioactive fallout hanging around the most toxic politician in the world who doesn't give a shit about the GOP, doesn't give a shit about them. And in my view, right up until the election, if it serves its purposes, will undermine them, that this is nobody near his orbit. In my view, has a shot at reoccupying the White House. Your thoughts? So I 100% agree with your theory that Donald Trump is absolutely lines up against the Republican Party. This has been his operating MO since he launched his campaign. He has taught Republican voters to hate the Republican Party. There are so many Trump first voters in the Republican Party who don't really like the party because Trump's like, yeah, these guys suck. I'm the solution. And so I think, first of all, I want to say that if it's Vance Rubio, I think that is a much less successful ticket than if it's Rubio Vance. I actually think over time, Rubio, I think Rubio is a better politician than JD Vance. I think Rubio is a more fun person, like a fun, not fun for me anymore, but I just think he's a more compelling individual than JD Vance, who the more you see of him, the more you're like, I don't ever want to hang out with this guy. He sucks. He's lame. He's not fun. He's got no Riz. But I also think this idea of Trump will only help these guys if he sees it as a way for him to stay in power or him to have access to power. It has always been more important to Trump to control the Republican Party than it has been to beat Democrats, which is why Trump has focused entirely this administration on retribution against his enemies. Like, where's he spending money? Trump's got a big war chest. Is he using it to elect Republicans right now? No, he's using it to beat Republicans who've crossed him on redistricting like in Indiana or to go after Bill Cassidy, who voted for his impeachment in Louisiana. That's how Trump spends his time. I think that to me, one of the bright spots going into 2028 is that Trump has taught an entire generation of Republicans to love him and only him. And I'm not sure they still turn out for whatever comes next. There is also a split happening in the Republican Party between the MAGA establishment, which is the Marco Rubio, Mike Johnson, and the America First types, which is your Marjorie Taylor Greene's and your Tucker Carlson's. And I think you're going to see a primary in 2028 among Republicans where those two factions face off. Yeah, I don't think Rubio has a chance for a very base reason. He's 5'8". I don't think we've had a president in the last 100 years. It's shorter than 5'10". I think we're a highly luxist and highly sexist country. I'm going to tell you who I think is the most likely GOP nominee for president, but I want you to go first. Does it rhyme with Schmucker or Smarleson? Oh my gosh, you read my mind. Either you listen to podcasts or we're of like minds. No, we're like minds. I think that Tucker is lining up himself right now to... 100% He's going at Trump from the right, or from the America First right. Anti-Israel, anti-war in Iran, yeah. Which is where the party's going. Yep. And so I think Tucker sees where it's headed and he's going there himself first and he's going to line up. That's why he's going to break with Vance. He's going to start criticizing Rubio. This is the good news though. I love to be critical of progressives. I think we have an outstanding bench. I think everyone from Cory Booker up to Governor Shapiro, Pritzker, I think Talerico, you mentioned Ossoff, Bashir. I think people constantly underestimate Governor Newsom. I think we have just what feels like whatever it was, the 92 Olympics basketball team. The dream team. I think everyone and their mother is going to run from the Democratic Party in 2028. Aren't they all calling you? They all call me and ask me for my opinion. I say, boss, let me send you a check and you can come on the podium running for president. Don't pretend to be interested in my opinion. Everybody. Everybody. Go get them. Go get it. And here's the thing. This is what I have for the Democrats who listen to the show. This is my begging and pleading right now is this. There is this factional fight between sort of moderate, what people see as centrist and progressives right now. And I think it's got to stop because you know when you can litigate that, you can litigate that when there are real candidates on the line in 2028. And you can the direction of the party can get chosen then right now in 2026. Like it's good to be four things. I'm not saying don't be four things, but I'm also saying put the factional stuff aside and focus on the guy who is destroying the country who has gotten us into this war, who is causing America pain. Don't fight with each other. Fight with them. They're on the ropes. And it's like Democrats decided to go to the other side of the ring and punch each other in the face instead of like hitting him with whatever. I don't know wrestling moves, but like with the thing where you hit their neck and they bounce off and fall to the ground. Go do that. I can't wait. I think the Democratic primary is if it's let it's if it's really you let it run. It's an amazing vehicle for not only producing the right person, but the right person for the moment. I'm actually really, really excited about it. So before we go, Sarah, your upcoming book is called How to Eat an Elephant One Voter at a Time. And it focuses on how to really build a coalition to defeat Trumpism and authoritarian populism. Tell me if you can give me the two or three pillars of trying to achieve that. I've hit a couple of them. Like one Democrats are going to have to get right on immigration. Like people want to close border and they want to feel safe and they can't access compassion until they feel safe. Desperately want candidates who focus on working people and affordability. Like this is how Democrats get working class voters back. And third, like voters are not even Democratic voters, centrist voters. It's not that they're like obsessed with sort of the hating DEI or hating woke the way that Republicans frame it. It's not that they just want to deprioritize. They're like, for the love of God, focus on the stuff that matters to me and not this stuff. And so I think from a policy standpoint, that's my recommendation. But my bigger things are voters. Some of it is what I've learned from the success of the Bull Work, which is to build a community. You have to be a community. And so Democrats right now, I would love to see Democrats going into 2028 instead of squaring off against each other. Campaign together. Go around and have not debates, but like sit down and talk things out. Invite people in, build a community out of the people who are so desperate for leadership right now. And so it is a book about finding leadership. It is a book about communications. That's my background, right? It's a book about understanding the new communications environment and how you build the parasocial relationships with people that make them feel connected to you. And then people have this argument about Kamala Harris, was she too progressive, was she too moderate? Neither of those things. People just didn't know who she was. They didn't feel connected to her. They didn't know what she stood for. She's a cipher. You cannot be a cipher. You have to define yourself and you do that by going out and communicating relentlessly. And so those are the things that are in the book, as well as a lot of personal stuff. Yeah, I like what Frum said. If progressives want to force the border fascist, well, we need to move, I think, we need to move from being the party of indignance to ideas. Yes. And I'd say the only, there's just so few. I like, Talarico is actually putting forward ideas. The only candidate I see right now is obviously running for president, who's actually having a substantive conversation around ideas, which quite frankly bores people, is Ramamand. I know. I knew you were going to say Ram. Right. I respect the fact that he's willing to say, yeah, I'm running for president, whereas everyone else is running and not owning up to it. And he will actually talk about issues. Everybody else just wants to cosplay Obama and talk about coming together. It's true. What I like about Ram is that I don't think Ram can be president. I do think Ram can really impact the conversation that these candidates have. He can shape that. He's the only one of the only people talking about education. For love of God, Democrats talk about education. That is where upward mobility starts. They could be the center of communities. It's about teachers like education should be back on the table as an issue that people are talking about. Agreed. Sarah Longwell from the Bull Work, what you and Charlie and Tim and Bill have done. I think you guys are a gift. And occasionally people reference to us our competition. I'm like, oh my God, there are allies. Yeah, we're together. We're in the trench together. And I just think you guys are a gift. I love how brave you are, like how smart you are. So we're absolutely pulling for you. Sarah Longwell, one of the founders of the Bull Work, and you can hear more of her on the podcast, The Focus Group and her new book, How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter at a Time, comes out in September. I really enjoyed this. And I think you're doing such great work, Sarah. I very much appreciate your time today. Thanks, Scott. So fun. Say hi to Jessica. She's my favorite. And just a quick reminder, Raging Moderates has a new schedule with longer episodes dropping Monday, Tuesday and Thursday afternoons on YouTube and all the podcast apps. Plus, we're ad free on Substack. Get access to those along with exclusive live streams, ticket priority for live shows, and interact with us and the community of listeners. Join PropG+, at RagingModerates.PropGmedia.com. Again, that's RagingModerates.PropGmedia.com. It's a great way to support the show. If you do, you can also get the Raging Moderates newsletter at the Monday Rage in your inbox every week. Sign up now at RagingModerates.PropGmedia.com. That's all for this episode. Thanks so much for joining us today.