CNBC's "Fast Money"

All Eyes on Nvidia’s Latest Quarter… And Housing and Retail Flash Warning Signs 2/25/26

44 min
Feb 25, 2026about 2 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

NVIDIA delivered strong Q4 earnings with a $78B Q1 revenue guide, beating expectations and driving semiconductor strength, while housing and retail showed warning signs with Lowe's guidance disappointing the sector. Software stocks continued to struggle despite Salesforce's solid results, reinforcing the hardware-over-software narrative dominating markets.

Insights
  • NVIDIA's 75% gross margins remain resilient despite industry expectations of deterioration, suggesting pricing power and supply chain management excellence are sustaining profitability
  • Market reaction to NVIDIA's beat was muted (up 1.9%) despite exceptional results, indicating the story is fully priced in and relative underperformance vs. semiconductor peers signals valuation concerns
  • Consumer affordability remains strained despite lower mortgage rates and inflation cooling—employment damage and delinquency rate increases override interest rate benefits for housing demand
  • Retail investor sentiment is shifting from 'buy the dip' to cautious positioning, with AI bullishness declining 12 percentage points and 60% believing markets are overvalued
  • Software companies face existential pressure from AI disruption; even strong execution (Salesforce) fails to move stocks without accelerated buybacks or clear AI revenue contributions
Trends
Hardware-over-software rotation accelerating: semiconductor strength contrasts sharply with software sell-offs despite solid earningsHyperscaler capex diversification: major cloud providers investing in proprietary silicon (Google TPU, Amazon, OpenAI/ARM collaboration) while NVIDIA still growsConsumer locked-in effect: low housing turnover despite favorable mortgage rates due to psychological anchoring and employment uncertaintyRetail investor sophistication increasing: shift from YOLO trades to multi-leg options strategies, hedging, and sector-specific volatility playsAI adoption bifurcation: enterprise/agent AI showing early traction (Salesforce Agent Force $800M ARR) but not yet driving meaningful revenue accelerationValuation compression in software: companies trading at 3-year lows despite buybacks, indicating market skepticism about AI-driven growth narrativesOutlet retail resilience: value-focused retail (Tanger) outperforming as consumers prioritize price deflation over absolute affordabilityMemory cost inflation risk: NVIDIA and broader semiconductor industry facing 30% potential memory cost increases on next-gen chips (Rubin)Crypto stabilization: Bitcoin finding floor above $69K after 20% YTD decline, suggesting capitulation and potential reversalDefense AI supply chain scrutiny: Pentagon escalating oversight of Anthropic, potentially designating as supply chain risk—unprecedented for U.S. tech
Companies
NVIDIA
Posted Q4 beat with $78B Q1 revenue guide, 75% gross margins, 20% sequential data center growth; stock up 1.9% despit...
Salesforce
Beat earnings with strong backlog and Agent Force traction ($800M ARR), but guided in-line on 2027 revenue; stock dow...
Lowe's
Cut guidance citing consumer lockout in housing; CEO noted lack of tailwinds; shares down 5%, dragging down housing s...
Home Depot
Gave back yesterday's gains following Lowe's warning; tax refund impact expected to add only 0.5% to comps vs. 2% ret...
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers
Jumped 5% to 10-year highs after Q4 earnings; CEO discussed M&A pipeline and hybrid entertainment-retail strategy
Caba
Mediterranean restaurant chain surged 26% on best day ever after posting unexpected same-store sales growth; revenue ...
Diageo
Down 16% after cutting guidance and slashing dividend; reflects secular headwinds in spirits and eroding aspirational...
Boston Beer
Missed Q4 revenue estimates; part of broader alcohol sector weakness alongside Diageo and Molson Coors
Molson Coors
Downgraded to underperform at Bank of America; part of alcohol sector sell-off
Snowflake
Mentioned as after-hours mover following earnings; part of software sector weakness narrative
Synopsys
Mentioned as after-hours mover; semiconductor design software company in focus
Microsoft
Most bought security by retail traders in January; had one of better days recently amid software sector weakness
Adobe
Made all-time high four years ago; now trading significantly lower, exemplifying software sector struggles
Tesla
Went from most sold in December to third most bought in January among retail traders; dip-buying activity
Whirlpool
Down 30% over past year; billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper sent letter to board calling for strategic changes
Google
Developing TPU chips; part of hyperscaler diversification away from NVIDIA dependency
Amazon
Doubling down on proprietary AI infrastructure investment; part of hyperscaler capex diversification
OpenAI
Finalizing investment and partnership agreement with NVIDIA; collaboration on proprietary ASIC development with ARM
Anthropic
Pentagon escalating oversight, asking Boeing/Lockheed to detail Claude AI reliance; potential supply chain risk desig...
Gilead Sciences
Stock up 30% past year; Chief Commercial Officer Joanna Mercier recognized as CNBC Changemaker for HIV prevention inj...
People
Melissa Lee
Host of Fast Money; anchored episode covering NVIDIA earnings, housing weakness, and retail sentiment shifts
Tim Seymour
Fast Money panelist; bullish on NVIDIA margins and semiconductor story; discussed housing market weakness and alcohol...
Carter Braxton Worth
Fast Money panelist; noted NVIDIA's muted price action and poor relative strength vs. SOX index; technical analyst pe...
Guy Adami
Fast Money panelist; discussed Tanger M&A strategy and valuation multiples; retail sector insights
Julie Beal
Fast Money panelist; highlighted NVIDIA's customer concentration risk; skeptical on Salesforce Agent Force revenue re...
Christina Parts-Nevelis
CNBC reporter; provided real-time NVIDIA earnings analysis including $78B guide, margin sustainability, and Rubin dem...
Chris Rowland
Susquehanna senior semiconductor analyst; $250 NVIDIA price target; discussed memory cost concerns and hyperscaler co...
Stephen Yaloff
Tanger CEO; discussed Q4 results, bankruptcy mitigation, M&A pipeline, and consumer value-seeking behavior in outlet ...
Seema Modi
CNBC reporter; covered Salesforce earnings, Agent Force traction, and $50B buyback announcement
Mark Benioff
Salesforce CEO; touted strong backlog and Agent Force adoption; noted company navigating 'SaaS apocalypse' with aggre...
James Castulius
Charles Schwab head of trading services; discussed retail trader sentiment decline, AI bullishness drop, and zero-day...
Kate Rooney
CNBC reporter; covered Pentagon escalation against Anthropic, potential supply chain risk designation, and Claude mil...
Dario Amodei
Anthropic CEO; given Friday deadline by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to agree to broader military use of Claude
Pete Hegseth
Defense Secretary; gave Anthropic CEO Friday deadline on military use of Claude AI model
David Tepper
Billionaire hedge fund manager; sent letter to Whirlpool board accusing company of destroying shareholder value
Joanna Mercier
Gilead Sciences Chief Commercial Officer; recognized as CNBC Changemaker for global HIV prevention injectable launch
Jensen Huang
NVIDIA CEO; discussed at CES as extremely bullish on AI demand; enterprise and agent AI expansion beyond hyperscalers
Quotes
"I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game."
Julia Boorstin (CNBC Changemakers promo)Opening and closing segments
"The $78 billion guide is what matters at the moment."
Christina Parts-NevelisNVIDIA earnings discussion
"I thought by now margins would be deteriorating. They're not. The fact that they're still 75 percent holding in there is remarkable."
Tim SeymourNVIDIA analysis
"This quarter is a pure open book test. There's really no reason to be surprised with any of the results."
Julie BealNVIDIA earnings reaction
"I have never seen performance like this. This is obviously not a rational market, so we're using our remarkable cash flows to take advantage."
Mark Benioff, Salesforce CEOSalesforce earnings call
"The consumer would probably argue that affordability means things are a lot cheaper than they are today."
Stephen Yaloff, Tanger CEOHousing and consumer discussion
"NVIDIA is still growing extremely well, even on the back of hyperscalers who are diversifying."
Chris Rowland, SusquehannaNVIDIA competition discussion
Full Transcript
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Borsten hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Live from the Nasdaq Market Side in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. NVIDIA shares higher by just under 3% after hours after the giant posted better than expected data center revenue gave solid guidance for Q1 sales. Did these results give the green light for the markets? We'll debate that. And the real read on retail shares of outlet operator Tanger hitting nearly 10-year highs after its latest earnings report. We'll hear directly from CEO Stephen Yalov about how its consumer is holding up and how deep affordability concerns really run. Plus, a warning from Lowe's takes down the whole housing trade. Kava shares soar after their latest report. And Bitcoin catches a much-needed bid as the crypto space finally found its floor. I'm Melissa Lee. We are back at Studio B at the Nasdaq Market site. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Worth, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal. We start off with earnings from the most valuable company in the market. Shares of NVIDIA up by 2.8 percent after the AI giant beat profit expectations posted data center revenue that grew by 75 percent. The conference call just kicking off at the top of the hour. Christina Parts-Noblis is here with the very latest. Christina. Well, what the number that moved the stock really is you talked about at the Q1 revenue guide, 78 billion dollars ahead of both street and buy side estimates. That's your headline. The quarter itself was driven by data center revenue up 20 percent sequentially helped by networking products too, because that falls within the data center category. That's the largest quarterly jump in company history, with gross margins holding in the mid-70s. Demand is strong enough that even older Hopper and Ampere products are still sold out in the cloud, according to the company in this slide deck they had. The one soft spot was gaming down 13% sequentially, with the CFO flagging supply constraints as a continued headwind into fiscal 2027. I bring this up because it still contributes roughly 7% of total revenues. But that's a footnote. Really, the $78 billion guide is what matters at the moment. Yeah. What is the tone? I mean, the tone is just absolutely positive across the board here. Yeah, because of that $78 billion, which was way higher than even buy-side estimates. And then I was going through that PowerPoint, too. Free cash flow has doubled in just a year, 34 points, almost $35 billion. Last year at this time for Q4 was $15 billion. The interesting thing is just the returns to the market in terms of shareholder buybacks. Last year, it was $8 billion. This year, Q4, it was $4.1 billion. So perhaps there's an opportunity for them to return a little bit back to shareholders as opposed to acquisitions, et cetera. All right. Christina, thank you. Keep us posted. The conference call is about two minutes in right now. No, I'm missing it. Yeah, go. Just reiterating the numbers. I'm okay. What do you make of the quarter? First of all, it's great to be back. It's like we should be playing Welcome Back, Cotter or something by John Sebastian. That's what you would choose. That's of all the songs in the whole world. That's what you would pick? Anyway, it's great to be back, and it's great to do it on a day when the stock that had to take us higher, actually seemingly for now, has taken us higher. I mean, the things that Christina framed where, not surprisingly, this was a beat and raise, I think the things to me that are more interesting as you get into ASPs with Rubin and what that means for margin profile, one of the things we talk about that will be the beginning of the end, and it's nowhere in the horizon, is when the margin degradation starts to happen. I don't see that happening. I think we're going to hear more good news. I think the China, kind of the filings that you have, H200 chips now actually getting ready to go to China, that's also good for AMD. So this is great for the semiconductors, which went into today at new all-time highs. So this is what we needed. Margins, 75%. Now, listen, I'll be the first to say, I thought by now margins would be deteriorating. They're not. The fact that they're still 75 percent holding in there is remarkable. Good for them. Yes, the guide was in absolute dollars. It's extraordinary in percentage terms, given what we've seen historically. I mean, it continues to sort of deteriorate. We've now what is about an eight or nine percent guide higher, which is still fantastic given the number. But bear that in mind. It's to me, it's about margins. Christina said it's about the guide. I won't quibble with that. But I'll also say this. You know, if you look at the name now, it's got to prove itself in terms of that October high, which I think is 212. Carter can speak to that. Here we are at 200. Is this the quarter that gets us through, or do we stall here? What do you think? Well, I think the first thing, of course, is always price action. It's very muted, right? The options market was implying a 4% move compared to the last 10 years. 40 quarters on average is about a 7. So the option market was anticipating something below average, and indeed it's not only below average, it's very muted, up less than 2%. My hunch is it's not enough to take out the highs, that there's a reason that this stock over the past six months is a market performer, up 6%, 7%, whereas its brethren, as measured by the SOX index, is up 45%. So if relative strength is important, and it always is as a factor, NVIDIA's relative performance or relative strength is very poor compared to the Philadelphia semiconductor index. And you think that... And I think the message after the print here is more of the same. All right. Julie Beal, has the story just become so transparent? That's why we're seeing the muted reaction. I mean, the hyperscalers, they all raised their capex. We got all these data points from the likes of TSMC and SK Hynix. They posted better than expected earnings. We heard from Jensen Huang at CES. He was extremely bullish about demand. I mean, it's all out there already. Yeah, this quarter is a pure open book test. There's really no reason to be surprised with any of the results. And it's really a function, I think, where the stock moves is a function of guidance. And I think that the guidance is good for sure. But I don't think it is quite the breathtaking liftoff that we've seen in prior quarters. And I think that's what you need to kind of propel and find those recent highs. Where I think they can do more work is still in the operating margin expansion. I'm very excited as a super nerd that they are expensing their stock compensation. And I hope more companies do it. But other than that, I mean, I think good, clean print, but I wouldn't expect too much from here. In terms of what we want to hear on the conference call, I mean, I think a big question is the high costs, the skyrocketing costs of memory and the impact on margins. Look, I think that's right. I think we could hear about a 30 percent hit to memory out in the future, especially on Rubin. I don't know if it's right now. And we've been speculating on the cost of memory for everybody in this earnings season based upon what we've seen. I do think the look, Jensen is out there trying to talk about this isn't just about hyperscalers. This is really about, you know, enterprise and agents and where we are actually seeing a much broader demand story. And I think that's fair. I really do. I think this is a story, though, I would continue to want to look at the margins. This is what guys jumping in on. By the way, the open book test guide didn't go so well on that. But don't feel bad. You're not alone. And anyway, I think there's a lot to answer, but I think China, the open AI deal, they've nibbled, you know, they've thrown that out there under the tape in the after hours that they're actually going to finalize some of that deal. We want to hear maybe a little bit more about other strategic, these circular trades that they're involved in. I mean, these are this is part of the story that has Wall Street perplexed and excited all at the same time. I think we need more detail. Well, maybe that's why it trades at the valuation it trades at. It's not a huge. It's not where it used to be at all. It's price earnings reasonable. Very reasonable. Yeah. For a reason, though, if you take out those revenues or discount the revenues that they get from the circular financing, then what do you come up with? Well, I don't want to say the margins be half of what they are because I can't do that math in my head, but they're not 75 percent. Let's put it that way. It's a much different story. But maybe it's OK. The market is nobody seemingly is concerned about what you just brought up. Now, with all that said, Tim's point about memory, I think, and your point is spot on. Did they get in front of that or are they behind the curve on the memory? Because that obviously, if they're behind the curve, that's going to hurt margins. Now, with that said, they may get a pass on that, given a huge run up over the last month or two months in memory. But that to me is a concern, the viability and the longevity of these margins. Really quick, Jeffrey flagged some really interesting stats out there that the derating of the tech sector is such that staples are now more expensive than the tech sector. And this D rating has happened at the fastest pace in 20 years. So, you know, you start talking about valuation and what's priced in for NVIDIA. I got to tell you, I'm going to take the side that I think it's actually really cheap here. And I understand that the market has had a lot of information, but I understand, you know, on a relative basis to itself, I'm OK with where we are in this valuation. I think actually the market needs to adjust to that. Let's bring in NVIDIA bull Chris Rowland. He's a senior semiconductor analyst at Susquehanna. Susquehanna. He's got a $250 price target on the stock. Chris, great to have you with us. Hi, Melissa. What's your take so far? Yeah, it was a monster guide. We were really concerned about capping that guide on supply constraints, but they are managing very well. Are you concerned about the impact of memory costs? Memory costs, not so much. Memory availability, perhaps. But they have probably the best planning team in all of semis. And so I'm pretty sure they've gone out two years in order to garner supply. I'm just worried about how much upside from here they can actually get. I think there is still some room there, but perhaps the dream of dream scenarios might be a little bit more difficult to reach. Chris, Tim, thanks. In a market context, again, I was just talking about some of the divergence in valuations in different sectors. What have you been doing in the last six weeks while tech overall, even though semis have moved higher? What is the analyst community? The divergence between the markets and the analyst community, you sound where you have been, and I appreciate the consistency. Has anything changed for you in terms of what you're doing with your model in the last six to eight weeks when it feels like we're in a terrible bear market in technology, even though semis are higher? Yeah, I think hardware, we're now understanding how powerful it is that we still are in the early stages of a massive, massive cycle. And unfortunately, software is being eaten by AI. And so some of the application layer investments are being compressed in terms of valuation. But hardware, it looks great. And right now, we love the optical interconnect space as a next place to look. and also AI power using semiconductors as well. Chris if there a risk to this story in NVIDIA it competition coming seemingly out of nowhere Is it out there Is there anything on the horizon that we should be concerned about So absolutely, the hyperscalers are going to make investments in their own silicon. I've talked about it on this show. I believe ARM as well as OpenAI are going to have a collaboration on their own ASIC. and then Google's been doing incredible things with TPU. Amazon's doubling down. You've seen in their CapEx number in their own infrastructure as well. So that will happen. There will be a diversification outside of NVIDIA. But if you look at the numbers posted by the hyperscalers here, they're still growing at a consistent company rate. So yes, excess dollars are going to go to their own internal efforts, But NVIDIA is still growing extremely well, even on the back of hyperscalers who are diversifying. All right, Chris, keep us posted on what else comes up on that call, which is now about 11 minutes in. Chris Rollins of Susquehanna, and we should note that the stock is losing a little bit of its altitude. It's up by about 1.7 percent right now. It had been up by as much as three and a half percent initially in the back of these earnings. I've asked, I think everybody we've had on after the NVIDIA earnings, after the NVIDIA print. Okay, so this is good. It's a good read through for all the hardware makers in theory. But does this sort of feel that hardware is eating software narrative? Does software feel additional pressure because we've got evidence that this trade is still on? I don't know if it adds fuel to a fire that still was uncertain. You know, we'll talk about Salesforce in a minute. We'll talk about Snowflake. I'm not sure we have answers today. But what I would point out is the breadth, the depth of the demand on the hardware side is indisputable. And that's something that I think also for the broader market, and we've talked about this many times, where you're seeing a margin profile of traditional companies changing dramatically. Software, I don't think we know. Yeah. Julie Beal, is NVIDIA a value stock in your view? I don't think I could quite call it a value stock with growth like that. But I do think that for sure, relative to other names, it is a very high quality business. and the biggest knock you can have against it is just the customer concentration. It is a little bit nerve-wracking to think there are only probably five boards of directors that can make a pretty meaningful decision that will impact their business, and that's the only part that's really the only fly in the ointment. But I actually think that's why the multiple is what it is. It reflects the nervousness that we still don't have good economic business models around AI yet, and so that part is still uncertain. Just what Julie said, the multiple, it gets down to that. The forward multiple at 24-25 isn't much more in the market. So the question is, is this about where it belongs? And the market is saying right now, people are trading this right now, that there, for now, is not a lot of upside. Software question, we talked about it with Mike on your great show, Closing Bell, about, I don't know, 40 or so minutes ago. And you brought up the question that I was actually thinking in my head, proving once again that you reside with rent-free. A lot of space. You know, you're trying to find a bottom. I've been trying to sort of, well, software you think at some point is going to bottom out. Microsoft had probably one of the better days it's had in a while. But is it just an oversold bounce or is there something there? I mean, a name like Adobe, if you want to pull that up, that made its all-time high four years ago. And we're going to talk about Salesforce to Tim's point. I mean, it's clearly problematic. And that trade, that long semis, long tech, short software continues to work like a champ. NVIDIA shares up by 1.9%. Christina Parts Nevelis is more on the conference call. Christina. So the CFO is speaking right now, and she said a few things. One, she said, we believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments extending into calendar 2027. So people wanted to hear that reiteration that demand was going to continue into next year. She also said, quote, we expect sequential revenue growth, as this is for data center revenue, throughout calendar 2026, exceeding what was included in the $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin revenue opportunity. So perhaps they, in the Q&A, will increase that $500 billion. And then in their 10K, there is a section about OpenAI, really vague and kind of not new news, but it's a headline, so I'll just share it. Finalizing investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI. No assurance we will enter into an agreement with OpenAI. And then I'm just hearing now too, because I got earpiece in one ear and the call in the other, They're talking about sovereign AI and how it's grown exponentially. She just put a number on it, too. But these are all tidbits that people wanted to hear to actually quantify that demand is going to continue into 2020, fiscal 2027. Christina, thanks. Keep us posted. Christina parts Nevelis and the stock continues lower. We've gotten everything that we want. So what do you make of this? It's very interesting price action. I think the price action will continue to be interesting through the rest of the evening and maybe as we open tomorrow. I don't think there's going to be any disputing that their core business is alive and well. And I don't think you're overpaying for it here. So I actually feel pretty comfortable owning NVIDIA. Again, we're going to question all we want about what's going on in hardware. I don't know anyone out there that sees a letup in hardware. And again, while it hasn't, Carter's right, the relative underperformance to the Sox is notable, except for the fact that the Sox has this bubblicious stuff called memory, which is driving the whole thing higher. And I'm not sure it's fair to be held to that standard. I mean, again, so six months, it's performed in line with the S&P. It is the most valuable, most prominent, most owned, most loved company, and yet it is delivering market returns. And its peer group up 40%, 50%. That must mean something. And the market is saying it does right now. If you were playing cards, though, I mean, it sounds like a pair of twos here. Oh, no. No, we're not doing that. A pair of fives? A pair of sixes? A pair of fives. Bubblicious? That was great gum. Wasn't there an issue with that? Bubblicious? You don't remember this? There was an issue with bubblegum. Wasn't there a gum called Yum or something like that? Yeah. There was a lot. First of all, there was a big bubblegum period in the 80s. There was bubblegum. There was bubblegum. Bubblegum. Bubblegum. Bubblegum. Sorry. But Bazooka was the original. I'm mad at me. Do you have something to say regarding NVIDIA? I think we've said a lot about it already. I will tell you this. Tim has been, he's not wavering on the NVIDIA story. And despite the fact that since October it hasn't done all that much, It's done a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of years. So he's been spot on. Valuation's not concerning. I've been concerned about margins. That's been unwarranted. I mean, it's steady as she goes, it appears. In media is up 1% right now. Meantime, Lowe's delivering a warning that's on ripple effects throughout the housing sector. The home improvement retailer CEO saying there aren't a lot of tailwinds for the group and that consumers feel locked into their homes and are not buying and selling. Shares of Lowe's were down more than 5%, while rival Home Depot more than gave back yesterday's gains. Builders, meantime, fell 2.5%, their worst day since November, even as mortgage rates hit their lowest level in nearly four years. What's going on, Tim? Well, I think this is when you hear from Home Depot and Lowe's and you get some sense of really the bleak outlook they have, especially from the, I mean, Home Depot through their professional community and that business has a lot of insight. It's also coming on a day when mortgage rates are four-year, I don't know, what's the number? I mean, they're as low as they've been in a long time. I'm not sure what that time period is. It's also fascinating that home builders are getting this. What I'm also hearing in terms of this very big rotation we're seeing into things that are hard and build and things that people that do that. You're talking about home builders. A lot of people are saying this is a place actually you should have exposure in a world where we're uncertain about people that are in the services world. There's one little line from Home Depot about the impact of tax refunds, which overall to retails expected to add about 2 percent. But they said it's only going to add half a percent to comps. So they're really not going to see much of an impact or something that everybody thought was going to be something great for retailers. The question you have to ask, I think, is are these leading indicators? Is the guidance that Lowe's gave, is that a leading indicator is what they're seeing in terms of the housing market? And again, you brought up correctly the fact that, you know, 30-year mortgages are probably the lowest they've been in four or five years. Four years. Four years, right? Yep. The problem is there's the other side of the equation is how strapped is the consumer? Delinquency rates continue to tick higher. The unemployment rate is fine, but below the surface is the damage being done in the employment market. That, to me, overrides interest rates. I mean, this is what a pair of twos really is. And if we have a chart, we can pull it up on the screen. Tim, this is a pair of twos. Well, no, you're right. You mean better. It's a pair of fives. You know, these are one hand has to beat the other. But Home Depot, same price it was a year ago and two years ago and three years ago. At what point is it worth fooling with? And I would say not a short, not a long. Just play a different card. Coming up. Well, keep an eye on shares of NVIDIA, bringing more headlines from the conference call as we get them. Plus, the after hours action in Salesforce, Snowflake and more. And a number of fast movers catching our attention. Why Diageo is losing its buzz. The major move higher in shares of Kava and the rebound in Bitcoin as crypto tries to stage a comeback. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money Salesforce on the move after hours, the software giant beating on top and bottom lines, upping its dividend and expanding its stock buyback. That call kicking off at the top of the hour. Sima Modi's got the details. Hey, Sima. Hey, Melissa. CEO Mark Benioff of Salesforce touting its strong backlog, Agent Force, customer wins like Wyndham Hotels and its mega buyback of $50 billion, saying, quote, I have never seen performance like this. He then said, this is obviously not a rational market, so we're using our remarkable cash flows to take advantage. This is not our first SaaS apocalypse. We've been through many SaaS apocalypses. I remember the horrible one in 2020 when not only the software industry was dying, but we were all dying. But we made it through that one, and we will get through this one as well. But, Melissa, guidance is what investors are scrutinizing, with 2027 revenue outlook coming roughly in line. $45.8 to $46.2 billion was the range provided. The estimate was $46 billion. RBC Capital calling it a miss. And as we've seen this quarter, as software companies miss or guide conservatively, That seems to reinforce the whole AI disruption fear. But Salesforce is still in the early innings of this whole AI adoption cycle, launching Asian Force in 2024. It did see annual recurring revenue jump from $500 million to $800 million quarter on quarter. I guess the question is how much more justification Wall Street needs. We do have CEO Mark Benioff joining our colleague Jim Cramer on Mad Money tonight, Melissa. All right, Seema, thank you, Seema Modi. A lot has to be said about where the stock is coming from. Amazing. Which has just been decimated Exactly Obliterated And yet it is still down when we see the inline guidance And when they buying back you know almost 30 percent of market cap Right, so what does this say? Well, it tells you, first of all, if the AI boom is something that they're experiencing, it doesn't feel so great when subs are, when you look at constant currency, organic sub growth of 8 percent next year. That doesn't sound like a world where things are booming. And again, you need to see an acceleration in the second half of the year for that. So some green shoots in Agentic. The agent force is certainly getting some follow through, some traction. But I don't know that this answers the software question, and it probably doesn't. $50 billion, to Tim's point, the market cap now is probably $175,000 given the sell-off. We're at a three-ish. If we're $180, this is a three-year low in the name. If they say, you know, we're going to do an accelerated $50 billion stock buyback, maybe that would get some giddy up to the stock. Accelerated versus regular. Accelerated versus regular, which I think they can do. I don't know the exact rules, but they could probably use that language. The market would like that. But to Tim's point, the growth is just not there. I mean, valuation has been, people have been talking about the valuation being reasonable now for the last 40-something dollars in the stock, and it's now been cut in half since its all-time high, I want to say, in November of 2024. Julie, your thoughts? Well, I think the biggest challenge for them is that Agentic is not really ready for prime time in the way that I think it can be a really meaningful revenue contributor. A lot of companies are saying, yeah, you can like pile on the AI, I'll play with it around. But they're not really able to draw a lot of revenue from it. And so without that, they can't really point to anything that says they're going to get through this cycle as more than just, you know, cold storage for data as the system of record. Until they have that, it's really hard to prove a counterfactual for them. And, you know, I agree. I think that the thing for them to do and the thing that we heard before all of these software companies reported was like, please buy back your stock aggressively. And I agree. It's a big buyback, but an accelerated one would feel much better. Yeah. Good to make. I love when Julie Beal agrees with you. Yeah. It makes me feel smart, and that rarely happens. It's not an open book test either. Well, no, it's actually. How about the charts? It gets back to the same thing. There is no such thing as good or bad news. There's just news, and it's how the market interprets it. So the market is saying, this buyback is no good. This quarter was no good. Otherwise, it would be up, not down. It's down in the market. People are selling and not buying it. There is no premise to buy a stock that's just in a downtrend like this. Coming up, much more earnings action. NVIDIA's conference call still underway, about a half an hour in right now. Plus, details from after-hours movers like Snowflake and Synopsys, and the pops and drops in today's session. While shares of Diageo are going flat, a bounce back in Bitcoin and the surge in Kava as investors fill up their plates. You're watching Fast 20 Live from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S&P up eight-tenths of a percent of the Nasdaq, leading the charge, climbing nearly 1.3 percent. The S&P joining the Nasdaq in positive territory for the week. Shares of Caba surging more than 26 percent for its best day ever on the back of earnings last night. The Mediterranean restaurant chain unexpectedly posting same-store sales growth, full-year revenue topping $1 billion for the first time. Meanwhile, alcohol stocks getting hit today. Diageo down nearly 16 percent after cutting guidance. The company also slashing its dividend. Boston Beer missing Q4 revenue estimates. And Molson Coors getting downgraded to underperform at Bank of America. In crypto, bouncing back. Bitcoin back above $69,000. And Ethereum, Solana and Ripple also seeing some big gains. It is still down, though, more than 10 percent this month and 20 percent for the year. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper sending a letter to Whirlpool's board accusing the appliance maker of destroying shareholder value, calling for sweeping changes to its strategy. Whirlpool has dropped more than 30 percent over the past year. Tim, The alcohol stocks, what's going on? Yeah, I mean, in the case of Diageo, this really did feel like a reset. This really felt like this is a company that's trying to transform. We know what some of the secular trends have been in booze and spirits. We know what some of the aspirational demand coming from China, that erosion has looked like. This feels to me like an opportunity. I have to say, I was interested in these stocks probably 20, 30 percent higher. I don't own the stock, and I do think it's something that looks interesting here. I do think that there is a brand. I do think there is actually real demand, and I do think there's a margin story. All right. We have got an update on the CME technical issues that led to metals and natural gas futures trading being briefly halted this afternoon. A source familiar with the situation telling CNBC that the technical issues were not data center related. Last November, CME futures were taken offline for hours after a cooling issue at a data center paused trading. So that's the latest on CME. Coming up, the state of the consumer. Tanger CEO Steven Yaloff joins us with his post-earnings take on retail and whether affordability concerns are weighing on his shoppers. Fast Money is back in tune. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of outlet mall operator Tanger, jumping more than 5% after Q4 results. The stock closed today at its highest since October 2016. The company hosts its conference call tomorrow morning. Tanger CEO Stephen Yaloff joins us here on set for more on the quarter and the state of the consumer. Stephen, great to have you back. Thanks for having me. You know, there is so much concern going into the quarter because of the bankruptcies. We've seen Sachs and Eddie Bauer reducing their footprint by a lot. How did you offset those bankruptcies? Well, you know, our guidance really contemplates a lot of different potential outcomes. But as it relates to those particular brands, they haven't rejected any leases. You know, and I've said before, you know, in the outlet space especially, that's where the customer is coming for value. So a lot of brands, before they go out of business or close their stores, they want to make sure that they keep those outlet stores open because they move a lot of inventory and merchandise through them. I think in the case of the SAC stories, I think what we'll find is it'll be pretty competitive because those leases are pretty much under market across the whole population of real estate right now. And I think there's a lot of brands out there that are looking to grow their footprint. What are you seeing in terms of the length of leases? And at the end of the year, there tends to be shorter leases, correct, just to get through the holiday season. And there's some aspect of seasonality to that. For the bankruptcies themselves? No, no, sorry. Overall. Oh, overall. Yeah, you know, look, there's always going to be temp leases. is your occupancy is always going to be much higher in the fourth quarter because there will be tenants that want to just come in and occupy space for that period of time. And those are actually the most expensive leases because if a brand wants to come in and only capture that fourth quarter selling, they're used to spending a little bit more money. You talked about the mitigation strategies for bankruptcies. But now, and by the way, I think we've talked about your stock very favorably over the last couple of years. And Mel just mentioned 10-year high. But now you can start to play offense. Like M&A strategies is one of the themes in the note that I read. Yeah. Well, look, it's something that we're looking at. There's a lot of there's a lot of companies out there. They see us as an operator. We're an owner and operator shopping centers. And I think the operation business that we built is second to none. You know, we're marketers, we're leasers and we're property managers. And I think that's where we're getting rewarded by our investors. So talk about, though, an acquisition kind of pipeline. This is something I think in your earnings call. I mean, I think this is where the street is focused, frankly. And is that something that people should be concerned about also, just from a balance sheet perspective, from a free cash flow perspective? Because this growth, as Guy said, playing offense right now may be what you're supposed to do. Yeah, well, first of all, I think the public markets are rewarding us for going out and acquiring properties. We've opened seven new centers now in the last three years, one that we built, six that we've bought, the most recent of which is Legacy in Kansas City, where the Kansas City Chiefs just announced that they're moving to the West Village Entertainment District, which is pretty much where our shopping center is. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart. But in that particular asset, we're going to invest a lot of money into a property like that because we see that a little bit more hybrid. We see a lot of brands want to come in, a lot of restaurants and food and beverage, which if you look across our portfolio, that's why we're winning right now. We're not just an outlet shopping center. We're an outlet shopping center that really caters to a lot of people that are coming through in that marketplace. What does your data tell us about the consumer and how the consumer shopping? Last night in the State of Union address, there was, I don't want to say dismissive, but, you know, President Trump was saying the prices of everything are going down. So the affordability issue that had been so front and center for a long time, he really downplayed that. And you've got to wonder whether or not the consumer really is feeling some pressure, because that is, in fact, what we heard in conference calls. Well, look, I think the math equation of affordability with inflation going down, but employment and wages going up, I mean, you can do the math and say, OK, things will probably be more affordable. But I think the consumer would probably argue that affordability means things are a lot cheaper than they are today. And, you know, I talked about it the last time I was on the show with you. We talked about price deflation, especially in the outlet channel, where you can go and you can buy items that are priced below that inflationary level. So value pricing is really the big winner. It was in the fourth quarter. And we continue to see our traffic build in both January and February of this month. And because of that, I just think the customer is voting. They still want to buy things, and they want to buy them at the best possible price. All right. Stephen, it is always great to see you. Thank you. Hope you'll come back. He's a handsome man, Stephen Yalof. Am I allowed to say that? You just did. Half the stuff I'm wearing right now I bought in his outlet mall. Oh, really? Absolutely. What do you think keeps me the best-dressed guy on Fast Money? You guys are all wearing the same shirt. I just said that. Basically. Do you have something to tell us to say about a stock guy? Well, actually, 15 multiple obviously is a bit of a trough multiple. I think even Stephen would agree they don't deserve a market multiple, but give him an 18 multiple on the $2.50, and he got a $45 stock, which was the prior all-time high 10 years ago. I think that's where it goes. How's the chart look? You know, it's remarkable. Would you ever, just one more, would you consider a defensive REIT? He brought the guest back. I know, he's not supposed to do it, but I'm, you know what, I'm such a hybrid myself. We can do something like that. Well done. Here we go. You did it. Your peak in relative performance to the IYR was in the financial crisis low, meaning your stock lost only 45 when REITs lost 70 and the S lost 50 Would you consider yourself a defensive asset within the asset class Because that the way the market treated you in the worst sell in the last 100 years Yeah, I think there's been a reinvention of this company over the last five years. I think post-COVID, I think we've proven to be extraordinarily resilient. Yeah. And I think one of the major things that we've done, we've changed from being a developer of outlet centers to being an owner and operator of shopping centers. And, you know, by doing that, I think that we've added a number of different uses. We've added a number of different, you know, recession proof. We're going after restaurants. We're going after entertainment. So we're bringing the customer in, and then we're getting them to stay for the shopping. Or the customer comes for the shopping, and then we get them to stay for the entertainment, the other things. So as far as we're concerned, I think we've built this muscle of operations. And if somebody says, hey, what should Tanger be famous for today? It's really an owner of shopping centers, but really as an operator of shopping centers. Steven, once again, thank you. See you next quarter. So well delivered. Coming up, are the bulls losing steam? What our next guest sees in retail investor sentiment and why some younger traders are feeling the most uneasy? The details when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. As AI bubble fears rise on Wall Street, Main Street is also taking a more cautious stance on the market. The latest trader survey from Charles Schwab showing a decline in overall sentiment, with 52 percent of retail traders describing themselves as bullish, down from 57 percent in Q4 and nearly six in 10, saying the market is overvalued. For more on the findings, let's bring in James Castulius Schwab's head of trading services. James, great to have you with us. This seems like a change. Do you sense like a change going on from the before that was the buy every dip mentality? Well, I think the buy the dip is still present, Melissa. But I do think we're seeing a bit of a change and shift. And especially you put up some of the headline numbers. But the AI shift, the bullishness and AI shift was even more pronounced going down about 12 percentage points. And so I definitely think the tide's turning a bit, certainly for AI. What do you see in terms of the reaction to the software sell-off that we've seen? Are you seeing retail traders going in and buying that dip, or are they really staying away from that? No. When we looked in January, Microsoft was our most bought security. And it's interesting, too, because we're seeing a lot of selling at the top, and we're seeing a lot of buying at the bottom. And so Tesla, which is always sort of in the top five of most traded, went from our most sold in December to our third most bought in January. And so dip buying is still pretty, pretty prominent for the retail investor. Smart retail trader. I mean, everything you're talking about, right? I mean, this is not the retail trader of old, selling tops, buying bottoms. I think that's right. And I think if you looked at how the retail trader was positioning themselves coming into Nvidia earnings today, it would have been the same thing. We saw about 20 percent more options volume in NVIDIA today. It was skewed way more on the call side. And the put writing, put buying we did see was much more about hedging than it was taking a bearish position. Julie's got a question. Yeah, I was curious. We saw a lot of volume in biotech in the fourth quarter. Do you think that there are a lot of young people that feel shut out of really generating wealth in the housing market? They're trying to find more of these lottery ticket trades. Are you seeing them investing more thoughtfully than that? I think it's more thoughtful, Julie. I think we are absolutely seeing younger investors and all our traders trying to seek volatility. They're doing it in individual names. They're doing it in specific sectors. They're doing it in specific products and instruments. We've got the single stock zero dated options that have been quite popular with our clients since they went live a couple weeks ago. And so we don't see a lot of the sort of YOLO type things you might see in the biotech. It's much more thoughtful than that. Zero day options seem a little YOLO-ish. And so do predictions markets. I mean, there are all these new products. And I'm wondering how the retail investor is reacting. What do you think is driving that shift to things like zero-day options and predictions markets where it's a very binary outcome? Yeah, we do a lot in education to try to talk to the merits of zero-day options, but in defined risk, high probability trading, as opposed to I just want to go long or I just want to go short. And so we see a lot more hedging than just sort of straight on. I want to take a position. I want to cross my fingers. I want to see what happens at the end of the day. And, again, that's a lot of why we lean into education so much. Well, the zero-day options thing is a relatively new thing, right? And by definition, if an investment has to have a time frame, right, you don't invest that this drop will come down faster than that raindrop on the window. So it's all just outright speculation gone wild, right? There is no investing. If the time frame, games of chance, sports, dice, cards, dogs, those are just dogs. Dogs. Dogs run. You'll bet on it. Or high lie or whatever. High lie. Wow. Yeah, it's all the same. Never said on the show. Never, right? Or the paddle. It's a first for everything. But the point is, what would you characterize all of it is, other than just outright, hey, it's fun to bet on the Giants or the Rangers, and it's fun to bet on this? Yeah, we draw pretty fine lines between sports betting and some of the things going on in prediction markets and then the options trading. So I think if you're talking about just a single leg option trade and I'm buying it now and the market's going to close in two hours and it's up or it's down, I think there's a fair comparison. I think if you're combining that with multi-legged options positions and spreads and you're combining it with equity positions, we view that a lot different. And that's where I think in sort of what we said last time here and what Tim, I've heard you say a lot is the retail traders much more of a smart trader now. And they're doing a lot of more sophisticated things that historically would have been associated with institutions. And it's not just that sort of YOLO. I'm going to go ahead and buy this and cross my fingers and hope. James, great to see you. Thank you, James. Thank you so much. Highline. Remember Bridgeport Highway? No, Milford Highway. I think they both had one. Are we just going to digress or are we going to say something intelligent? This is what struck me. We fielded more than 30 million calls to the service centers, answered less than 30 seconds on average. That's amazing. But on average, the new-to-firm retail client are in their 30s. Yeah, young. Start young. Start young. Watch Fast Money. Start young. That's right there. Yeah, I like that. It's nice. We've got news on Anthropic. Kate Rooney's got the details. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So the Pentagon appears to be escalating this ongoing fight with AI giant Anthropik. It could make an unprecedented move. This is according to Axios. They're now reporting the Defense Department has asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin to detail how much they actually rely on Anthropik's AI model, Claude. That would mark what would be an early step towards what we have reported as well, potentially labeling this company a supply chain risk. We have reported that according to sources. But this would be new. So this designation at that level, it's typically reserved for companies or adversaries. You think of Huawei, for example. This is not common to happen to a U.S. tech company. So it does mark a major shift here in the backdrop. Claude, Anthropics, Chatbot, or AI model is really the only one right now that's being used for classified systems. There's been this back and forth. We've also reported Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, has given CEO Dario Amode until basically five o'clock on Friday to agree to this broader military use. That is still ongoing. Anthropic has told us in a statement they are basically negotiating in good faith. They're not going to compromise safeguards, but there has been some pushback back and forth. And there are competitors also popping up trying to fill the gap here, including XAI. But that's the latest on this back and forth, Mel. All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney. Coming up, purpose and profit, how female leaders in biotech, pharma and health care are transforming business and reshaping industries. The latest CNBC changemakers next. More Fast Money in two. You've got more for the NVIDIA conference call. Let's get to Christina with that. Christina. The story coming out of NVIDIA right now isn't just about Blackwell anymore. It's agentic and physical AI applications, and they're actually starting to show up in the actual financial results, not just the roadmap according to management. On customers, hyperscalers were just over half of data center revenue, but growth was led by everyone else. So the demand base is really broadening. On Verirubin, which is the next chip iteration, the CFO is really quite direct saying, quote, we expect pretty much every single customer to be purchasing Verirubin. just timing on when. And then you had demand sustainability that's dominating all of these questions from the analysts. And one thing to watch, though, starting this quarter, NVIDIA is including stock-based compensation in their non-GAAP numbers. So EPS comparisons, earnings per share to prior periods will look a little bit different and models will need to be restated. It's a little technical, but it'll change the numbers a little bit. All right, Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelis. The third annual CNBC Changemakers List was released earlier today, recognizing the women transforming business and philanthropy across sectors. For a few names making an impact in the healthcare space, let's read CNBC's Julia Worson. Julia. Well, Melissa, our CNBC Changemakers List includes a record number of leaders in biotech and pharma, including Gilead Sciences, Chief Commercial Officer Joanna Mercier, the CEO of Lupin, who spearheaded a landmark effort to reshore medicine manufacturing, Novartis' U.S. Chief Commercial Officer, Rashema Kempz-Polanco, and President and CEO Helen Sabzavari, who's developing gene and cell therapies. Now, Gilead's Joanna Mercier has helped Gilead stock grow about 30 percent in the past year, driving the global commercial launch for the world's first twice yearly HIV prevention injectable. The mission at Gilead has always been very, very clear around, you know, developing innovative medicines for really tough to treat diseases or ending potentially epidemics like hepatitis C, let alone now HIV potentially. And so that is something that really attracted me. You can find more about all of our CNBC Changemakers at cnbcchangemakers.com. Julia, thank you. Julia Borsten. Final Trades, up next. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.