Paramount Wins Warner Bros. Bid, Anthropic vs. Pentagon, and AI Doomsday Memo

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0:01

When things get hard, how do you talk to yourself? I'm Robinarsson, VP of fitness programming and head instructor at Peloton, and this week on my new podcast, Project Swagger, I'm sharing my strategies for how to build better self talk. It's time to work on befriending yourself. Follow Project Swagger wherever you get your podcasts. I use it when I get like an ear infection every time I get an ear infection or something like that. Or clean out my ears or a cold or a flu.

1:16

That's a little too much information. Tell us about the ear cleaning.

1:43

Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast network. I'm Kara Swisher.

1:49

And I'm Scott Galloway.

1:55

Resistant Unsubscribe. Why don't you give us an update because February is coming to an end. You've had over 20 million views across social media and over 1.5 million site visits. This obviously has a lot of momentum. People mention it to me all the time. Your website touts $242 million loss in market cap. Talk a little bit about how it's gone because we have something to announce. But first, give me a Little update, and then you can do the big announcement.

1:56

The honest truth is I'm struggling because it's taken a lot of time and a lot of effort, and it feels as if it's. The momentum is actually cumulative and building. And I've had a lot of different, kind of smaller, I don't know, resistance programs reach out and say, what are we going to do in March? Should it be meta, where we focus on one company or focus on OpenAI? Right. So. And how do we keep it going? Because it does feel like it's. It's building momentum, and to just shut it down at the end of the month feels like a loss of effort and momentum. So I'm, quite frankly, Kara, and I want your advice. I'm trying to figure out what to do with it going into March.

2:19

I think you should hire someone. Specifically debt. Not part of your team, but really?

2:56

Yeah.

3:00

Hire someone to really keep it going.

3:01

And someone who wears Birkenstocks, lives in Brooklyn, a lesbian. Someone with rich parents, putting them. Putting them through nonprofits.

3:03

Whatever it takes, Scott. Whatever it takes. But I think it's important to. To have someone at.

3:09

Do you drive a Subaru?

3:14

No, I'm sorry. My son does. So.

3:15

Your son would be great at this. What's Louie doing?

3:18

He's in San Francisco working for.

3:20

Oh, perfect.

3:22

No, you're not. No, he is a lesbian. I know.

3:23

Perfect. I don't know if you've heard, but I pay really well. You have to put up a lot of dick jokes, but I compensate 50 to 100% above market. True story. The dick jokes and the compensation.

3:27

I'll ask him. He does have a job. I will ask him. I will ask him if he wants to help. You know, who you want is Alex. But he wouldn't do it. Alex is so, like, he would engineer this the fuck out of this thing.

3:36

He's at Michigan. He's taking, like, organic chemistry and computer science and. And working out and like, lifting. Lifting buildings.

3:46

And the title that he has for this summer where he's working his advanced manufacturing product integration engineering intern.

3:54

That rolls right off the tongue.

4:02

I know. I was like, wow.

4:03

Can he just say pole dancer?

4:05

The poll dancer. Advanced manufacturing product integration engineering intern. That is what my second son is doing.

4:06

Did I tell you? When I was on the college tour with my son Alec, the first thing, literally the first thing, the first impression we got of Michigan was Alex's fraternity. And we were both, like, just scared.

4:12

Scared. Cause he's leaving that for his last.

4:26

Floors were sticky.

4:28

Sticky.

4:29

I lived in A fraternity. And I don't. I don't. It, like, brought back. I'm like, was it this bad?

4:32

Yes. And it smells like beer. Old.

4:37

Oh, yeah. Beer and semen.

4:39

Yeah, I know, I know.

4:42

Yeah. It just.

4:44

Yeah. He's gonna live in an apartment for his senior year, but so he's leaving the frat. Finally. My little boy is on his way.

4:45

Yeah. And the house was clearly built, like 200 years ago. He looked like Gulliver roaming around.

4:53

Yeah. Yeah. It's true. You wanna go back? I feel like you wanna go back for a party.

4:58

Oh, I'm in.

5:01

Okay. All right.

5:02

I'm definitely that pathetic guy that shows up at the fraternity party when he's invited.

5:03

Yes. No. That's so sad. Seth Rogen movie like that. Anyway, listen, we are going back to the Midwest. Let me just say, this is not ending. I think you should hire someone. I think you should keep going. But we are going back to the Midwest. We're not going to Ann Arbor, but Scott and I are coming to Minneapolis. We talked about it on the show and then we made it. So along with our great team here, and you can see us live, we're gonna celebrate resist and unsubscribe and keep the momentum going. We're gonna do a live show at the Pantages theater on Sunday, March 8th.

5:07

We will be there a week from Sunday. Minneapolis here. I wanna meet Rhoda from Mary Tyler Moore. That's why I'm going. And you know what? I hope she's wearing a raspberry beret.

5:39

That's right.

5:51

Get it. Get it, Kara. Little local humor there.

5:52

Talk about the tickets. They're not available yet. Right.

5:57

They go on sale. I think by the time that's theirs, they're on sale. We're gonna be donating all proceeds to the Minneapolis Immigration Center, I believe it's called. But we want to do something. Well, AI said this. You've been very supportive. And we've decided. I've decided I want my efforts off the fucking keyboard and off my. To be a fraction of the virtue, signaling and action I claim to want to have. And so I pitched you on this idea, and we thought, let's go to Minneapolis. We want to bring some economic activity. We want to salute them. We want to basically say over and over that they fucked with the wrong cowboy when they came to Minneapolis.

5:59

Right.

6:39

You, of course, are totally well connected. We're going to have a bunch of fun and famous surprise guests.

6:41

Yes.

6:46

And we're going to do a live show and basically nod to the. To the incredible Americans known as Minneapolisans.

6:46

We love the Minneapolisans. And if you jump straight to the website, you can find a link to buy them when the tickets are available. We think they're going to be available on Friday at resist and unsubscribe.com. we've got a thousand tickets. Again, the money goes straight to charity. We're gonna run this show on Pivot, too, so we'll talk about some current events, but we're gonna focus on what's happening here with Resist and Unsubscribe, because we know we have a lot of fans there, and we love Minneapolis. We love what the city has done, and we wanna give back in some way. And this is one of the many ways, because what happened to you was heinous. And at the same time, tech companies have a lot to do with this. Like, let's be clear. And so we really. What Scott is doing here is giving you guys, and we are going to do our little part. And it's a little part compared to what Minneapolis has done. But tech is not the only reason, obviously, but it's played a part in where we are today. And so we're going to resist and unsubscribe, and everyone's going to unsubscribe. Speaking of unsubscribed, Scott, I unsubscribed from one medical, which is an Amazon product.

6:54

Did you have the 99 a year or 199 a year?

7:59

199 a year.

8:02

And were you using it?

8:03

I.

8:04

A little bit. Yeah, absolutely. And I love it.

8:05

I love the service. I just hadn't used it in several years.

8:06

Yeah, I use it when I get, like, an ear infection. Every time I get an ear infection or something like that, or clean out my ears or a cold or a flu.

8:08

That's a little too much information. Tell us about the ear cleaning. Okay, tell us about.

8:15

I get a lot of wax in my ears, and so I've unsubscribed our entire family from it.

8:19

And it's a lot of money to be less attractive to a heterosexual.

8:23

Yeah. Anyway, I'm doing just fine, by the way. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today, but. March 8th, Minneapolis tickets will be on sale soon. Please come. We want a full house. And we're super excited to see you. We've got a lot to get to today, so we're gonna dig in. First, President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union ever on Tuesday, 1 hour and 48 minutes, where he, of course, Said Americans were telling him we're winning too much. Did you watch Scott? Thoughts?

8:26

It was not too late. I watched, I did what I did with almost all media broadcast on traditional cable and that as I watched it in bits and pieces on, you know, TikTok and reels the next day, I felt like for Republicans I felt as if they were attending their ex wife's wedding when you're still on her health insurance and but he, but she controls the military. It felt like Dear Leader in the Duma where they thought I better stand and applaud or I risk execution.

8:54

Yeah, totally.

9:22

So I found it. I don't know. I quite frankly I thought it was a bit of a nothing burger. I agree he didn't say a hell of a lot. I thought he came across as quite robust to be fair.

9:23

He was robust but he moved very quickly by the end into very deflated. Like it was really if you watch the whole thing he started off real like energetic and then he got mean. He was normalish for him and that's a, that's a very low bar. But he, as you, as the night progressed he got super mean calling the Democratics crazy. And then that idiot in the back, Joe JD Vance was like, like he looked like such a dope. He is, he has no right being to be president. Sorry, I'm gonna, he's just such a do. The Supreme Court went and stony faced and every time Trump did something like the Democrats are crazy, the Republicans as you said jumped up like a bunch of like dancing monkeys. Essentially the Supreme Court sat down, the military looked straight ahead which was really interesting. And of course the Democrats sat down and they wanted the Democrats to have photos of the Democrats not agreeing with immigrants shouldn't kill American citizens. They wanted photos like that. I thought it was mendacious and if you look at any of the lie stuff there's a lot of it. I thought it was, it veered into cruel as usual. And then the worst part was it was dull. It was actually dull. And that's to me the worst part. And of course the numbers show much less people watch at 28 million versus 36. It's like doesn't have any staying power. And he denied Americans were suffering. That's one of the things which I thought was a mistake.

9:33

I thought from a political standpoint. Is it Abby Spanberger? Is that her name?

10:56

Yeah, Abigail Spanberger. Abigail Spencer, Governor of Virginia.

11:01

I thought her rebuttal was outstanding and I came up with an idea I want to pitch you and I'm serious. Now. And I actually called one of our favorite senators and I said, I have an idea. I think they should hire. If you think about. Essentially the Democratic response should turn into what the halftime show is to the super bowl. And that is a halftime show had almost no relevance 40 years ago. Now it's bigger than the Super Bowl. I said, hire Jay Z's Roc Nation. Fill a stadium with 10,000 rabid Democrats.

11:06

Yeah. And then you get all music.

11:39

Cool. Cool intro, amazing artists, graphics, visuals, great lighting. Because the problem is the follow up. Whether it's Marco Rubio responding, the response always comes across as flat because it lacks the sex and the majesty.

11:41

Yeah, he needed to be jazzed up. I agree. The lighting wasn't great.

11:56

Let's sex it the fuck up. Because if. If you listen to what she said, if you read her response.

11:59

Yeah, it was good.

12:04

It was outstanding.

12:05

The lighting was bad, the setting was bad.

12:06

It's just. They can't compare. It's like going from the Greek theater to you're watching something on laserdisc.

12:08

I hated myself for thinking that, but I'm like, the lighting's bad and the setting is bad. It's not good. It was too far away and it was too close.

12:15

When I was renovating a house in the Hamptons. Let's bring this back to me. I used to go to the 711 and a bunch of guys would roll up and I'd say, okay, I need some guys to do stunstatting or something like this. In my general contract, I would just sit in the passenger seat with a bunch of cash. And I had no less than 12 or 15 workers at any time at my house doing shit. And at night, I'd roll in and they'd all be in the kitchen with a VCR and a big, like, four pizzas and like 24. It was either Medelas or something else. And they'd have this bad black and white tv and all these guys would just be sitting around watching porn.

12:23

Oh, yeah.

13:02

And I remember thinking, this is odd. This is odd.

13:03

The story is odd. But go ahead.

13:06

This is odd. No, that's it. That's the whole story.

13:08

Okay, okay.

13:10

That's the whole story.

13:11

Don't do that. Democrats do not have Mandela pizzas and porn.

13:12

This is. What a douchebag I was. I had a sand beach volleyball court.

13:15

Okay, yeah, okay. You're losing the resistant. Unsubscribe, people.

13:20

Oh, I was so optimized for the lad.

13:23

Okay, let's move. You have progressed to a better person, and now you're a lesbian going to Minneapolis. I'd like you to wear Birkenstocks, by the way. I think that would be great. Anyway, it was a nothing burger and he looked mean and I thought he real got and started doing the blah, blah, blah.

13:26

At the end, he didn't say anything and he didn't outline. He teased tax cuts, which I was interesting to see. Okay, how are you going to pay for those?

13:44

Didn't talk about AI much. She didn't do anything forward.

13:50

He didn't really talk about Iran much.

13:53

The show is. The show is winding down. That's what I thought. It reminded me of the end of the Apprentice. It wound down. It suddenly wasn't interesting. And that's what I thought. It was mendacious. It was mendacious and cruel. But that sort of table stakes with him. Dull is what I thought. Hi, everyone. Scott and I just recorded earlier today, but I'm jumping on because a major story just broke. After a long battle, Paramount has won the Warner Brothers Discovery bidding war, at least for now. Netflix has released a statement saying the deal is, quote, no longer financially attract attractive. It never was. And it was, quote, always nice to have at the right price. Not a must have at any price. Paramount had upped its offer to buy all of the company for $31 a share and added all kinds of bells and whistles. And Warner determined that offer was superior to Netflix because it was actually. So I'm joined now by Puck's Bill Cohen to break this all down. Bill, you and I have been texting about this for a long time. You thought it would be quick, then Paramount would get away. I said this was going to go on, on and on, and it has. It's really been like since December, I think we've been. Whenever it sort of broke. But talk a little bit about your overarching things and we'll talk about a few other things.

13:56

Oh, look, I think this caro is the outcome that had to happen. You know, whereas Netflix was saying it was nice to have at the right price, it was getting to be nosebleed territory. Paramount, this is existential. I mean, without this, they're just like an $11 billion company which once upon a time would be nothing to sneeze at, but now was a pipsqueak in this landscape. And so they needed Warner Brothers Discovery, all of it, to make what the Ellisons hope if they hadn't done this, then their original premise for the Paramount deal wouldn't have made much sense and their equity wouldn't do anything. So this was kind of existential for them. They had to pay up. They had to win. And kudos to David Zaslav for running one of the best M and A processes I've seen in a long time.

15:06

You know, for people who forget, yesterday I tweeted that Netflix had to walk away from this because it was just ridiculous. It was an insane price. And Warner was at $10 a share recently and it popped to $31. Was there $21 of excellence that had been created not at all from nothing.

15:57

Right.

16:16

It's like whipped cream or something.

16:17

Well, it actually got as low as $7 a share and. Yeah, remember. Right, I do remember.

16:18

And it was expensive at that.

16:24

People, you know, buy at that price, but. Because I thought they would pay down the debt and make something of it. But, you know, he's, you know, ever since September 11th, when Paramount first began to hint that it was interested in buying this and it offered $19 a share, we've gone from 7 to 31 and it's. And what not. Because the companies have performed particularly that much better. I mean, they've performed fine and Warner Brothers had some hit movies, but it's just because of the scarcity value. The fact that ZSAs ran an incredible auction process kept them on both sides on their toes the whole way. And especially this last bit of jiu jitsu was just beautiful to watch.

16:26

Yeah. I said he won the Jeff Bukus award for turning chicken shit into chicken salad and feeding it to a nepo billionaire.

17:15

Like that's, you know, Jeff Bukus was the last guy at Warner Brothers to, you know, make a fortune selling the company to at&t. And now ZAZ has done it again and sold again.

17:21

So let's break it apart a little bit because one of the things that had begun to dawn on me and you and I, I always thought Netflix was the better owner in terms of taking these assets and doing something significant with them. I felt like the purchase the Paramount is not as good going to be as good as owner. It's still too small. Instead of a leaking lumbering media ship, it's a bigger lumbering ship. I don't see how they're going to, just because they're slightly larger, be that much better. Unless they are run by someone who's more experienced. I think David Ellison should get out of the way. And I know they have Jeff Schell, very talented, George Cheeks, many others, but they don't have the executive of fortitude. I think to do much with this and Netflix later can come swooping in and take off part. So how do you look at it?

17:32

Look, I know they're very excited over at Paramount about winning. I know they're very excited about their business plan and what they think they're going to do with this. You know, they're going to have to combine CBS and cnn. I can only imagine what the feelings are over there. Bad, probably not great. You know, there's a lot of bloat, probably on the CNN side that's going to once again come under the ax. You know, as we've discussed many times, Gar, I think David Ellison has blundered a few times already out of the gate. Taylor Sheridan losing that, that was a big, big loss.

18:21

Bigger, you know, bigger than the CBS

18:58

disasters, which are not nothing either, you know, overpaying for, you know, UFC or whatever it is. I mean, you know, so I think there's, you know, they've got a lot to prove is. But nevertheless, they've got a lot to prove. But they also had. This was existential for them. They had to. They had to win. And for Larry Ellison, I mean, if. If it weren't for Larry Ellison, we wouldn't be here. We wouldn't be talking about this and wouldn't have this discussion. They would never have been taken seriously. They never could have done the deal. So it's Larry's unbelievable amount of equity that he's willing to step up. It's something like $45 billion of equity, 25 billion from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and the rest from Larry and Jerry Cardinal at Redbird Capital, with most of it coming from Larry. I mean, this is an unbelievable amount of equity, an unbelievable amount of debt. It's probably going to be the largest LBO kind of in history. Except they're not taking the company private it. They're, you know, it's remaining a publicly traded company.

19:00

Let me ask you in that regard, you know, would you compare it to what Elon did at Twitter like that? I don't know. Someone was like, well, can't they do what Elon did? Meaning the bankers sort of gave up and he managed to get his money back because he squeezed it into a different company. I don't think they have that choice here. This is. They just have the media company. Correct.

20:07

Hey, well, you know, if they want to create P. AI and create a AI company and everybody go crazy for it and then have the AI Company buy the media company and then, you know, merge it with SpaceX, okay.

20:25

I mean, you can.

20:39

Do you want to go do all those crazy things Maybe they can pass it off onto somebody else. Maybe Elon will buy it. You know, Elon could buy it out of petty cash. He could.

20:39

Why did Larry Ellison do this? Because he seems to me he's a smart customer about a lot of things. This seems like buying a yacht or something. Well, he has a yacht. What am I talking about? But you know what I mean, it seems so unlike him. Perhaps he's old. Perhaps he wants to leave a legacy for his son who likes to make movies. What. What is. Because from a financial venue, this is not a Larry Ellison move. To me in my mind.

20:50

No, this is, you know, they're going to have 70 plus billion of debt here, Kara. It's a lot of debt. You know, Maybe they have 11 or 12 billion of cash flow. Maybe it's a lot of debt. They're going to have to make a lot of cuts. They, you know, they believe they're going to delever quickly. You know, every, every buyer who puts together a leveraged company thinks they're going to delever quickly. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Maybe Netflix will get another chance at this when the thing flounders. But why did Larry do this? I think it's Oedipal. I mean, I think he wanted to do this for his son. And he started down the path to

21:13

do

21:53

went from 19 was their first bid to 31. I think he felt like this ego was involved if he didn't do it, that he'd have egg on his face kind of thing. And he's got now Trump expecting him to change the dynamic of the two companies in terms of the politics. And so I think he felt like he had to do it. And once he'd started it and he basically caved and gave Zaz everything he wanted. Every little detail.

21:55

Correct. Which is so unlike Larry Ellison. I was sort of like, what a chump. I never called Larry Ellison a chump before, but I feel chump that. That Zaslav ran circles around them.

22:21

Yeah, he got into Deal Heat and gave Zaslav everything he wanted. I mean, they're happy over there.

22:30

They're excited because they're like, they're like, you know, they're pumping fists. But honestly, I was like, oh, dear. Oh, oh dear. That's what I consider.

22:35

There's going to be a hangover for this. There's definitely going to be a hangover.

22:43

So two more questions you mentioned, Trump. One of the things that everyone's worried about, of course, is Larry Ellison owning TikTok. He doesn't Oracle owns 15% of TikTok, which isn't a huge amount. It's a significant amount, but it's not the most amount. And owning cbs, which I think was a falling knife. So I'm not really clear why everyone's. They're obsessed with it. Cause it's a good story, but it's not a. I would say, you know, we just did an analysis of Pivot and we have more people in the demo advertising than cnn. You know, all of these companies do, all these cable companies. So it's not that it's the news organization. And CNN has been declining, like, let's be clear, like the numbers have been declining. All of cable has, not just cnn. What do you think it's a political thing or what? Also lastly, Trump's running out of time, right? Trump is absolutely running out of time. So address the political issue. And then secondly, the regulatory issue could still get very ugly with Democrats attacking this if they get back into control of the legislature, correct? Presumably.

22:46

Well, let's take the regulatory first. Made a big deal of them getting through Hart, Scott Rodino, which meant there wasn't going to be a deep dive into this by the doj. Although they could still come back and take another look at this now that it's a kind of a different deal, a new deal. They could, they probably won't, but they could. They got the eu. They were definitely working the eu. You know, David and Jerry Cardinal were over there working the eu. They think they're in good shape with the eu. So they think between the doj, the EU and Trump being on their side because he's going to give them the political format that he wants and be supportive of him, which whatever, it's ridiculous if you ask me, but they think they've got the regulatory situation in hand. Politicians make a lot of noise about these mergers, but they have no say in the approval of them. So even if the Democrats take the House in November, I'm not sure what this is going to be. This could very well be over by then. They put in the so called ticking fee. If it's not over by the end of September, which is obviously before the elections, they're going to owe Warner Brothers shareholders another 50 cents a share or $650 million. So they.

23:46

So the impetus is to do something quick to get it quickly done.

25:17

Some things they can't control. But I mean they obviously are very con. They're highly confident, Cara, they're going to get this through the regulators and you know, they'll give Trump what He wants. And I'm not sure the Democrats, even if they take the House, can do anything about what CBS and CNN broadcast at all, except to the fcc. And that's still in Trump's pocket. And, you know, Trump blithering away, you know, asking for them to give him favors and bend the knee or get

25:21

rid of Jake Tapper, whoever they want to. Whoever he's mad at at the moment,

25:49

be part of it. Yes.

25:52

Yeah. So when you think about where Netflix goes from here, I think it was the smartest move. The stock is going to soar. They have plenty of money to do things. They're so innovative. They're such great operators. Right. They're sort of, of. It's not a bad thing. They could do a distribution deal for some of this content and then later, just wait until the knife falls.

25:53

Right.

26:11

Presumably. What would you do if you were Ted? So I thought this is exactly what he was going to do.

26:12

Right. And this is what I wrote that exactly he should do yesterday. And then I don't know whether he reads it or listens to me or whatever, but he did exactly the right thing. He looks smart. Stock is going to move up after moving down, like 30%. He takes his $2.8 billion breakup fee and builds out his new movie studio in New Jersey and gets content deals and looks smart and disciplined. And that's what investors like.

26:17

Looks like the good guy.

26:43

He does. Looks like the. He looks like the good guy. And he can move on from this. It was gonna be a headache for him if he got this. Sometimes the smartest thing you can do in a deal, Kara, is to walk away. And he did the smartest thing. So he's gonna get plaudits all around. He could read the tea leaves. It was gonna be a regulatory nightmare for him to get this through. Trump was not gonna make it easy for him. He already bloviated about firing Susan Rice, and Ted didn't do it. And so, you know, who knows what was gonna be in store for Ted. But he did the smart thing here.

26:44

So very last question. When you think about what happens next for consolidation, this is. It's obviously Comcast has gotta be like, going, what do we do? Disney's gotta go, what do we do? Netflix now looks like it's willing to play, at least. Cause it wasn't an acquirer very much like Apple, but it is. They're very opportunistic now. And in good. Now. They've had this. They've never done this before. Now they know. Right. They've worked On a big deal. What do you see next, if you could make a prediction?

27:17

Well, I mean, it's quite. You know, a lot of people have been thinking that Comcast would, you know, spin off NBCU and maybe Netflix and NBCU get together. But, you know, I don't really think Netflix needs to. To do any of that.

27:44

I don't either.

28:02

Now they got a little taste of it. Maybe they thought, well, they walked around the, you know, the Warner Brothers lot. That was kind of fun. And now I guess maybe they could walk around the Universal lot. They're building their own lot. I'm not sure they need to do it, but if they want to do it, I think there would be opportunities. You know, there's Amazon prime, there's. I'm not going to do anything with Disney, I don't think. But nbcu, there's some smaller studios they could get their hands on. AMC and things like that. I don't really see that they have to. I think Ted sort of had fun here. He showed his mettle. He showed he can be a deal maker. He got a merger agreement and he showed himself to be disciplined. And he comes out, he's the big winner in all this. Him and Zaz, of course.

28:03

Right? Absolutely.

28:46

Zaz is the $600 million winner.

28:47

I swear, this guy, this guy, Mr. Discovery, Mr. Diners Drive Ins, and he

28:49

ran the M and A deal of the century.

28:56

I gotta give it to him. I gotta give it to him. I always run him down when I see him. I joke with him, I say he looks like a lesbian. But I have to say, he did a great job here for his shareholders. Right? For the.

28:59

I mean, literally 77 to 31.

29:11

Amazing, amazing deal. And good luck, Ellison. Good luck on catching a car. Good luck.

29:14

We'll wait for sequel.

29:20

All right, the other winner here is you. You've done an amazing job in covering this and I like debating with you. And it's really helpful because it's smart and it's clear and you're non romantic about any of this. Anyway, I appreciate it. Go to Puck to check out Bill Cohen's reporting and we'll take a quick break. And Scott Knight will be back with Nvidia's earnings. Support for the show comes from. Indeed. Hiring isn't just about finding someone willing to take the job. It's about connecting with someone who can move your business forward. For that, check out Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Indeed Sponsored Jobs boosts your job post for quality candidates so you can reach people that can help your business thrive. People are finding Quality hires on Indeed right now as we speak in the minute I've been Talking to you, 27 hires were made on Indeed according to to Indeed Data worldwide. Join the 3.3 million employers worldwide that use Indeed to connect with quality talent that fits their needs. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. Now with Indeed Sponsored Jobs and listeners to this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves@inn Indeed.com pivot just go to indeed.com pivot right now now and support our show by saying you heard about it Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com pivot terms and conditions apply. Hiring do the Right Way with Indeed. Support for this show comes from Rubrik. A lot of companies are deploying AI agents now. They're automating tasks, handling workflows and making decisions. But here's the thing. Sometimes they mess up. What a surprise. They might delete the wrong files, make changes you didn't authorize, or just go off script. And when that happens, you're stuck trying to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it. Unless you're using Rubrik Agent Cloud Rubrik Agent Cloud is a platform that allows you to monitor, governor and rewind AI agent actions. One platform to help you unleash more agents faster without the risk it's running in the background the whole time, watching what's happening, making sure things stay on track so you can get full visibility. Set guardrails so agents don't go rogue. And if something breaks, you just roll it back. If your business relies on AI agents, you need the ability to monitor, govern and rewind their actions. Right now our listeners get exclusive early access to Rubrik Agent cloud. Head to Rubrik.com that's R U B R-I K.com Rubrik.com hey, Kara Swisher here. I want to let you know that Vox Media is returning to south by Southwest in Austin for live take tapings of your favorite podcast. Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of Today Explained Teffy Talks, Prof. G Markets and of course your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher. The stage will also feature sessions from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu and Robin Arzon. It's all part of the Vox Media podcast at south by Southwest, presented by Odoo. Visit voxmedia.comsxsw to pre register and get your special discount on your innovation badge. That's voxmedia.comsxsw to register. Really, you should register. We sell out and we hope to see you there. Scott we're back with more news. Nvidia reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings with a profit hitting 120 billion. Only a handful of other companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple have made over $100 billion in profit in a year. Net income for the company doubled to $43 billion. Revenue in the data center business rose 75%. Talk about that because Wall street was also rattled this week by a viral memo from market analysis firm Citrin Research Group. The memo laid out a scenario where the AI systems trigger mass white collar layoffs, push unemployment above 10% and ultimately lead to a stock market crash. Citrini said the post was designed to prepare investors for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird, stressing that it's a scenario, not a prediction. Even so, the s and P dropped 1% on Monday, though some of it was concerns about tariffs. But companies specifically named in the memo included Uber, DoorDash, American Express, IBM all saw steep declines. It was an interesting memo and it was a thought experience. And the markets were already rattled by Blue Owl Capital, a major private credit lender announced its halting of quarterly redemption for one of its funds and selling $1.4 billion in loan assets. The company's stock fell. We'll get to that in a second. I'll talk a little bit more, but stick with the first with the Citrini and the Nvidia earns.

29:22

Well, I'll talk about Nvidia before I Talk about Citrini. Revenue 68 billion versus 66 expected up 73% year on year up 20% quarter on quarter non GAAP earnings buck 62 versus $1.53 up 82% year on year data center revenue 62 billion up 75% year on year the gross margins 75% yeah, their fiscal 2026 revenues margins were crazy. $216 billion up 65% I think that's that may be more revenue than like every streaming media company and movie studio combined. Since the launch of ChatGPT, Nvidia has grown its data center business roughly 13 fold. And this quarter marked the best revenue growth rate of the entire fiscal year. So it's revenue growth on the law of big numbers. It seems to be more like network effects. It keeps getting better. It's scaling Q4 73% year year growth beat Q3 at 62, Q2 at 56 and Q1 as they get bigger, they're growing faster, they're literally defying gravity. Notably, they're leaving out China from its future guidance. According to the CFO, while small amounts of H200 products for China based customers were approved by the US government, we have yet to generate any revenue and we do not know whether any imports will be allowed into China. China was previously 20, almost a quarter of Nvidia's data center revenue, but that's now gone. It doesn't seem to have hurt. And the thing is, it's still not expensive. It trades at roughly 24 times forward earnings, which is only slightly higher than the S and P. So you have a company that's the most dom, arguably the most dominant company in history at that moment is trading what the S and P is trading at. And because of the fears around AI and maybe because of the stock acceleration, it's only up, it's basically flat. It's up 4%. And then you have all these companies announcing their spending 2/3 or 3/4 of a trillion dollars on capex this year. And most of it's, a lot of it is going to Nvidia. Alphabet is flat. Amazon's down 7% year to date. Meta's flat. Microsoft is down 15% year to date. But big tech is getting punished for spending money and Nvidia is getting punished for collecting it. Or Nvidia's on the right side of that capex. So one of those, one of those must be wrong. Either these companies are making good investments or I guess maybe the thesis is they're overspending and it'll slow down. Should we talk about Citrini?

34:21

Yeah, Citrini was interesting. There was the other one a couple weeks ago that was another thing like everything's gonna change. That one Schumer, Matt Schumer, whatever his name is. There's been a couple of these that have actually had real impact as they've been written. They're thought experiments in many ways, but they are interesting, but go ahead. Citrini.

36:56

Well, essentially I would describe it as an A plus creative writing project from a super bright high school student. And it is really, it's written in the past tense. It says, okay, this is how we hit this massive recession and the market lost a third of its value. And I think it's a really interesting thought experiment. What they're essentially saying is that AI is going to create this negative feedback loop where it makes white collar workers so much more productive so quickly that companies can do layoffs and hire fewer workers, which results in an unemployment spike, less consumer spending. And because companies fall under revenue pressure, they're forced to cut costs. And how do they cut costs? More AI and it creates this downward doom loop. Now you could make the same argument for any technology right at 1.90% of us working in agriculture. Now it's less than 2%. But that happened over 200 years. These guys are saying this is going to happen over 24 months. And what's happened is it's really cut. Obviously we talked about last week. It's gone after the SaaS companies, the software companies who they believe you'll be able to replace Adobe, Figma or Salesforce just with thoughtful internal prompts and it's really well written and it's got great branding. They coined the term ghost GDP and that its economic output can grow while the benefits of that growth never actually reach most people. The other surprising victims here, and this will come back to my prediction, is a lot of publicly traded PE or private credit companies, whether it's Apollo or TPG or Blackstone have been their stocks are down 20, 30% because they own a lot of software companies. And there's a fear that as private credit lenders basically they act like banks to companies who are non traditional borrowers, that a lot of those companies might not be able to make good on the money they borrowed.

37:16

Let me just throw in some stats for the this is you're talking about Blue Owl, which is a major private credit lender. The company stock fell 10% on the news last week because of these sell offs. Shares are at a 52 week low. The sell off did then rippled across the whole private credit sector, which probably wasn't fair. Apollo, Ares, Blackstone and others sliding Blue Owl said it is not halting investor liquidity, it's accelerating the return of capital. I love how they do that. Mohamed El, former CEO of Pimco, suggested this could be a canary in a coal mine moment, comparing it to the early warning signs for the 2008 financial crisis. So this is all linked together, this idea of worry for all of these things, especially private credit lenders. Some are not as concerned, some are more concerned. We've got a lot of letters from people saying what should they be concerned and what's going on here. But they are definitely, as you're noting, they're linked. Correct. All this is linked to this spending, this massive spending by the tech companies.

39:10

The way I would try and describe the dynamic here and to understand if you're at risk and where you want to think about investing Your own human capital and your own financial capital is the following. My mom used to run the secretarial poll at Southwestern University School of Law in downtown Los Angeles, where I actually worked in the mailroom in high school. And she oversaw 20 secretaries who would write up the exams and the legal research of all the professors that's gone. Word processing has taken that away at the same time. My mom then became an executive assistant because she has good EQ and she's smart and reliable and can write well. If you look at truckers, AI will be a substitute for truckers. Truck drivers via autonomous are in real trouble. At the same time, accountants, you're going to see a lot of their rote accounting work go away. But they there are now more accountants than ever because they move upstream into things like tax, wealth planning and estate planning. So the question is, which presumably AI

40:11

eventually be able to help you with that? I don't have to. I call my accountant Mamie, who's amazing all the time for little and big things. Right. So presumably at someday I won't be talking to anybody, but it seems very artisanal on my part. It seems like a lot of work by Kara. It's like pumping gas.

41:15

I kind of like having example. I used a lot of lawyers. I used to send every agreement I did, you know, advertising contract, whatever it was, a employment contract I sent to our lawyers. They charged me a thousand, two thousand, three thousand dollars to have an associate review it. Now, I said now. I say to our chief growth officer, no, use AI Review it and you do it. I trust you more than with AI. You are smart as a low level lawyer. At the same time, I'm spending dramatically more on a very talented lawyer at a firm that's actually called Citron, on this incredibly smart woman named Lucy Lee, who figures out everything from immigration to tax strategies to my estate plan. Because that shit is complicated.

41:32

Because you want her to be using AI on your behalf, right? Because presumably she's also using AI.

42:19

Yeah, but she can call me and say, scott, have you thought about turning this company into an S Corp so you can in five years qualify for 1202? She's incredibly strategic and smart and charges 1,500 bucks an hour. So the bottom line is, wherever you are in the world, do you have an opportunity to use AI to go upstream? Or is AI basically going to take everything you're doing and you have nowhere to go upstream? But the story of technology disruption is the same, and I don't think it's any different here in that Is it will take out the boring rote work and you either take that additional margin and go upstream and invent new jobs, new higher paying jobs, or you get outsourced. The V here or the correction might be more severe and America's bad at taking care of those people. Again, we spend 0.2% on retraining. Denmark spends 2% of GDP on retraining.

42:24

We also don't do it well. When we try to do it, it doesn't quite work. Right.

43:18

But look at what we're in the business. I would have thought so. For example, I've been writing books and I thought in my latest book, I'm starting my newest book, I thought, oh, AI is going to play a huge role. It plays a role in research, in improving, and in fact checking. But the writing is still, yeah, I agree.

43:21

I've been trying to make it. Fetch is not happening for me in AI and writing. It's not. It just isn't.

43:40

But even look at our business, I would have thought, okay, AI can produce the scripts, AI could edit, edit. And it doesn't. We're hiring. I know you are at profit you media. We're hiring more people and we use AI. What we might do, we might launch two podcasts instead of one because AI will help us produce more data sets that we can talk about.

43:45

Yeah, we've got to figure out one of the things I was talking about this morning. We got to figure out how to make fetch happen with it. Right. And that's sort of a slower process. As you note, one of the things, someone was like, oh, is it all gonna be over? I'm like, imagine a 2000. I went to see a Hollywood executive, big name, and when the thing crash happened, he goes, I'm glad that's over. And I'm like, what? You have no idea what's coming. Right? So I think we're in the. It doesn't mean that all of them are gonna survive, but several will. And it is a significant change. And the question is, was it fair for Apollo to get dragged down in this Blue Owl thing? Probably not, but that's how Wall street reacts. So you may see opportunity, you may see an enormous decline in Nvidia or any of these tech companies, but are they really going away? Is this really going to decimate them? What it's going to do is have every company refigure where this cost structure is. That's what it's doing. You're going, do I need all these lower level lawyers? And that is a significant problem. And One of the things that it creates in is if we throw all these people out of work, they're going to be mad. And there's all kinds of social issues there and political issues. And the question is, what do we do about it? And that's hard because we've tried retraining and listen, it hasn't always worked. And we spent a lot of money on retraining. It can get sucked up into political bullshit, which is, let's give everybody jobs. Then other times it works, like during the Depression, we have wonderful things that they did during high speed rail up

44:10

the west and eastern seaboard. There's a lot of infrastructure. But look, both Andrew Ross Orkin and Josh Brown, who I've had on property markets a lot, said something that really impacted the way I process and how I approach markets. And it's the following. And they're right. The optimists have beaten the shit out of the pessimists. So the key question you gotta ask yourself in something like this with respect to the markets is ask yourself what could go right. Because there's a temptation by academics and thought leaders to catastrophize because you sound too. Well, you sound smarter when you catastrophize. It sounds scarier and more interesting. And you put some bar charts around you talking about the zombie apocalypse and a downward spiral doom loop. Well, okay, the doom loop around moving from agricultural to manufacturing to service. It wasn't a doom loop, it was a job creator. So let's talk about what could go right here. And this is from a guy named, I think his name is Zavi Mashowitz in open quote. Actually, this scenario does involve massive job creation. Starting a new business, creating a new product or providing a service is now a turnkey thing you can launch with an agent. All sorts of barriers and costs involved are gone. Marketing costs drop almost to zero because their agent finds you. Logistic costs are almost zero. Transaction costs are almost zero. Wages for anyone you hire are down and their productivity is way up. The cost of living is way down, which creates more margin, more opportunities for new businesses. I've been struck. When I got out of business school in 1992, there were two people that started a business and the other was my business partner. There was only two of us. Now, I would bet a third of the grads from Stern are going to try and start some sort of AI company.

45:43

Same thing with the media people. Same thing with the media people. I started off having to work for a big firm. I don't need to. Anyway, we have to move on. But it's a really we should keep this discussion going because it's very important. Because I think you're right. It's easy to catastrophize and you should be thinking about those things. It's just a question of what's the other side of that, what's the where are the opportunities? Just like we were talking about Netflix. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Pete Hegseth threatening anthropic

47:33

what are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address? I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues. As we head towards the midterms, we'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign policy issues.

48:04

I'm John Finer.

48:20

And I'm Jake Sullivan and we're the hosts of the Long Game, a weekly national security podcast. This week we'll react to President Trump's State of the Union address, the situation with Iran and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico. The episode's out now.

48:21

Search for and follow the Long Game

48:36

wherever you get your podcasts. In the wake of the release of millions of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case case, the rich and famous are finally feeling some pain. But even with corporate resignations here and with former Prince Andrew being arrested in the uk, the question remains, how did Jeffrey Epstein remain a thriving member of the elite for decades when everyone seemed to know what he was up to?

48:38

I don't think you could be friends with Jeffrey Epstein, whose MO was obviously having sex with young girls, even as Trump said on the younger side side,

49:04

and not know his MO Untangling the Epstein conspiracy. That's this week on Today explained every weekday and now on Saturdays. This week on Net Worth and Chill,

49:12

I'm joined by her first 100K, aka Tori Dunlop, a fellow personal finance creator who's changing how an entire generation thinks about money. Tori's journey is a masterclass in turning personal finance wins into a platform that empowers millions. She opens up about the real strategy behind hitting that six figure milestone without the typical privileged blind advice, and how she's redefining what it means to be a wealthy woman in 2026.

49:26

We're diving deep into investment strategies for

49:50

real people with real budgets and why financial feminism isn't just a buzzword, it's a movement. Get ready for an unfiltered conversation about money, entrepreneurship and what it really takes to build both personal wealth and a business empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com your rich BS. EFF. Scott we're back. Anthropic has rejected the Pentagon's demands for unfettered access to Claude, as we thought they might. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had given the company a deadline to roll back certain safeguards or risk losing a $200 million Pentagon contract. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodi said in a blog post that the, quote, threats do not change our position and that the company, quote, cannot in good conscience accede to the request. Good for you Dario, not to accede to a moron on the other hand, the AI company that's been all about safety is dropping its core safety pledge too. It announced this week that it won't stop training potentially dangerous AI models if a competitor releases something comparable or more advanced. They're doing other things, but they say the move reflects the speed of AI progress and the lack of federal regulation, not a political pressure. Thoughts?

49:53

The best performing organization in history is the US Military. I close second is the US Corporation. It's created more wealth in the last Christ. In the last 17 years, US corporations have created more shareholder value than all of Europe since probably the 60s. One company, Nvidia, is worth more than every publicly traded company in Germany and Spain. Now why is that? One we have incredible research universities, we have a very risk aggressive culture and we have the deepest pools of capital in the world. We have $5 million per startup versus was 1 million per startup in Europe. And why do we have such deep pools of capital? Because when people invest here they know the rules that that company will have to play by. And when governments start interfering and picking winners and losers and saying oh the rules have changed, you're going to have an absence or a flight of capital. Which by the way has happened. And this bullshit sclerotic blood sugar level socialism where the government has decided who should get to acquire Warner Brothers or that we should own a share, a golden share in a steel company or which microchip companies the governments can invest in because a failed casino owner and talk show or reality show host seems to believe he understands business better than the private sector. And we are already this isn't a theoretical lesson in why I Hate Trump reflecting my biases. This has already happened. They point to over the last year the S and p is up 14% but it's not on a dollar adjusted basis. The dollar has weakened so much it's more up mid single digits and by

51:03

the way, Europe is up more.

52:43

As you know, every single major market from South Korea to Germany to the footsie to the Kospi in South Korea has massively outperformed the S and P. And one of the reasons is when you now invest in a US Company, there's unnecessary risk from the government if you, for whatever reason, the Pentagon decides that we don't like you. And guess what? Anduril and Palantir are working very closely with the government to help them track down spies, to maybe even track down immigrants using social media. A lot of people would say that's a violation of privacy rights. A lot of people don't want to work for a weapons company. Well, guess what? What? I love your saying. You don't like Chick Fil A, you don't have to eat a Chick Fil A. Maybe you don't work there, maybe you don't invest there. But guess what? They get to do what they want. Regulated competition. And you get to decide what business you're in or not in. Just as Anthropic might decide that we are not comfortable working and providing data and computing power to help surveil U.S. citizens, they get to make that decision.

52:44

That's right. And they get to. By the way, I think they'll do better. Like, everyone's like, oh, they're gonna get like blacklisted. I'm like, I think this is good for them. It might be good branding, it might be good branding. It might be good, by the way, that they can do what they want and decide what they want to do on everything. And then you, the consumer, as we know, decide what you want to do. And one of the things that Hick says is always like, he's either doing like pull ups or this nonsense. Another person never run a successful business. Just so you know, a lot of these, these people in the Trump administration never run a successful business, including the president himself. Really, really, really has driven so many businesses into the ground. Let Dario Modi do what he wants. And if but to like threaten him.

54:00

It's called the private regulated competition. And everyone has to play by the. Everyone gets to and has to play by the same rules.

54:40

Elon will take it for you. Just go to Elon. And by the way, the reason why it's a problem is because most of the people in the Defense Department think Claude is better. Right? That's the issue. They don't want to give their better product to do they want. This to me, is ridiculous. And by the way, on the safety thing, you know, all These people are going to do whatever it takes. And they may be more safe, anthropic, but they will do whatever it takes to compete, Right? Correct.

54:46

Look, I think the reality is, and this is the danger, and this has been my. One of my core theses all along is that we have fallen under the assumption that every breakthrough in technology results in a small number of companies that are able to ring fence distribution capital or IP and create trillions of dollars dollars for their shareholders. I wonder if AI is more like jet manufacturers or vaccines. And that is, it will be an enormous innovation that'll change society for the better, I'd like to think, but there aren't going to be a small number of companies that capture a ton of value, that the real winners will be stakeholders, but those stakeholders will be citizens. I think we have massively benefited from vaccines. Moderna is now down 90%. There's no one company that's made hundreds of billions of dollars in vaccines. If you added up all of the profits and losses of all airlines and Boeing and Amber and Airbus, it's barely even a break even. And yet skirting along the atmosphere at 710 of the speed of sound is, in my view from my life, the greatest breakthrough in history. Now, my general impression is people ask me all the time, which LLM do you like? I have favorites, but it only lasts for two weeks. I think AI is putting AI out of business. And that is, if you look at the data, they're all getting to technical parity. It is so hard to maintain.

55:10

You know, Yann Lecun said this. Exactly. He says they're all the same. They're commodities. They're commodities.

56:26

I use both ChatGPT and Claude. And then for like 72 hours I'll be like, oh, ChatGPT is better. It's less politically correct. And then I go, wait, Claude is better at editing. And then I go back and forth. And here's the thing, AI is reverse engineering every other LLM. So it's going to be about things like ui, it's going to be margin compression. And I wonder if we're going to be the big one and these companies are. These companies are going to spend a massive amount of capital.

56:31

Yeah, I know, I agree. We're getting a lot of free. We're getting a lot of free.

56:58

100%.

57:01

All right, we do have to move on. We'll see what happens here. But Pete Hagg, Seth, you're a moron. Okay, this is a story I just want to say again, I knew this had legs. Dozens of FBI witness interview summaries appear to be missing from the DOJ's latest Epstein files release. Some of those are missing interviews that are tied to a woman who accused Donald Trump of sexually assaulting her decades ago. The DOJ said in a statement that the only materials we have been withhel were either privileged or duplicates. This is nonsense. Democrats in the House Oversight Committee are now investigating whether do purposely withheld materials. The New York Times followed this, so did NPR broke it and an independent journalist broke it. New York Times has followed. This is really a bad cover up. What they've done here is kept. They should just put it out there or go out investigate Donald Trump, one of the others. He's certainly not exonerated by the way. Other people are taking a lot of fallout from Epstein this week. This is not stopping, folks, until. Till it's not over. Till it's over. Bill Gates apologized to the Gates foundation for his ties to Epstein and also two affairs he had. He talked about them publicly. Finally, he kept stressing they were older, just old enough at least. Larry Summers is resigning from Harvard over his Epstein connection. The World Economic Forum president is also resigning. Peter Mandelson, former UK Ambassador to the US Was arrested over allegations that he shared confidential government information. The former Norwegian, I think Prime Minister was hospitalized with suspicion of suicide over it. There's a Columbia professor who's. Who's a very prominent neurologist. I think all these people are paying the price, let's just say either related or nearby. Trump obviously didn't say anything in the Epstein files and his lengthy State of the Union. I don't think he can ignore this. I think this is not going away. It is chasing him and it will not happen until they do. As you said, they have to deal with the perpetrators. And if he is one of them, he has the right to be investigated and he should be investigated. So should all of these people. There's still going to be repercussions for everybody in this world. There just is. Whether your judgment was bad or whatever.

57:02

You know how I feel about this. And it's an unpopular take. I don't think the file should have been released. I think the agency that aggregated the information should have reviewed it with the help of outside litigation counsel. And they should have communicated in one way to the general public and that is with grand jury indictments and announcements

59:06

that the administration wasn't going to do that because their own president was.

59:25

And so what have they done? They've created weapons of mass distraction.

59:28

I don't Know, I think there's repercussions here. I'm going to go the.

59:32

Because you're focused on it. The reality is the following. There appears to be enough evidence that warrant an investigation by. And again, to your point, unfortunately, we don't have the institutions to do this correctly. But the way this should play out is the following. The Attorney General should be announcing, or the Department of Justice that they are forming a special counsel because there are credible accusations of rape against several people, including the President of the United States and all this other bullshit. Larry Sumner sending stupid fucking emails because he's pathetic to Jeffrey Epstein. I think that's a distraction, Kara, again.

59:35

I know. I know you do. I don't. I think it shows about judgment and we can decide who we want to affiliate with. I think it's fine.

1:00:17

Okay, so. And if I had AI go through every one of your attacks and emails, I couldn't reflect you as having poor judgment.

1:00:23

Well, not to the extent of what. Look, Jeffrey Epstein's a unique figure here. You know that. And he represents something bigger, which is,

1:00:28

did they commit crimes? I get it. But by going after everyone that hasn't committed a crime because America loves to shame people, we are losing focus on the people who raped children.

1:00:35

Yeah, but, you know, all kinds of people got in trouble because of shaming things, and some people got in trouble because of whatever. We have a history of this. Like, actors like back in the 50s lost their jobs, like.

1:00:45

But that's fine. But that wasn't the FBI investigating, going on a fishing expedition for real crimes and then shaming.

1:00:59

Neither is going to happen.

1:01:05

Happen. This is TMZ's wet dream. And unfortunately, we're not creating the incentives such that if you're a single mother and your daughter ends up on an island, that there's less. There's. There's less chance. We're not protecting women, that is, we're not protecting children. And women.

1:01:06

Protecting women and children. You're absolutely right. I think it's part of the whole.

1:01:18

Every celebrity is just going to start using signal now.

1:01:23

No, I don't know. I don't know about that. I don't know about that. I think it is linked to the feeling that the rich have no impunity. You talk about. And that's part of a trend. And it's okay to have these other, other things, but they should do. I've said special counsel over and over again, but they were forced into it by Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna because they wouldn't do their job. And they didn't do their job because they're under the thumb of Donald Trump. And so if they're not going to do their job, this is the only way. This is my.

1:01:26

I get it. But this is what's happened, unfortunately, because our institutions no longer have any independence or credibility. They have released nude photos of underage girls. They have doxed them, listed their names and their addresses without their permission, and redacted and confused information around the actual people who have evidence that they're pedophiles. I mean, this just couldn't be.

1:01:54

But they're not getting away with it, as you can see. They got caught.

1:02:17

Oh, I think they're. See, I disagree. I think they're mostly getting away with it. I think the wrong people are being prosecuted and shamed and voted off the island. And the criminals are loving it because there's a ton of crime confusion and distractions.

1:02:20

I think they're gonna get the good.

1:02:32

The one thing, and you'll agree with this, I was thinking about it the other day, is if we asked the general public to name five billionaires, I think three of them would be. The first one would probably be Elon Musk. The second would probably be Jeff Beza. See, I think it would be. I think it would be Bill Gates. He was sort of the original billionaire. And then the third would be the president who calls himself the billionaire president. So three. I bet those three would be. Be the three of the first five that people said, who are billionaires. They're all in the fucking Epstein files. So, anyways, my point is, you can understand that the public has decided that once you get to a certain point of wealth, you engage in a level of depravity and feel that, again, I love this saying, you're protected by the law but not bound by it, versus rest of us are bound by the law but not protected by it. So you can see that there is a real populist uprising here. But again, I think the Department of Justice is there to serve Justice. Yes.

1:02:33

I think it's not this Department of Justice. If there was any other Department of Justice, you might expect a little bit more decency. This is not.

1:03:36

This is the, you know, we should have. And I was gonna do this, but maybe we do it on pivot. I wanted to get Preet Bharara on to talk about the process of document collection, investigation collection, and then how that information is properly disseminated to the public and in what format, because that's what we're talking about here.

1:03:43

You're right. You're right, you're right. It gets prurient, but at the same time it's the only way. Given Pam Bondi's the most. Another moron.

1:04:01

Yeah, but Kara, the dow is at $50,000.

1:04:08

$50,000. She'll never live that one down. Anyway, let's take a quick break and we'll be back for predictions. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.

1:04:11

So I just like to, I, I wrap my predictions in what I'm doing personally in terms of my own finances. And this is not financial advice advice, I'm just telling what I'm doing. I think that just as SaaS companies have been oversold, some of these PE or what they call business development or private credit companies have been oversold. So just some of the ones. Again, I'm going to create a basket because I'm about diversification at this point. But for example, Apollo, which has taken a huge hit is trading at 14 to 17 times earnings. So a company with double digit earnings growth and double digit assets under management growth, which is the capital they deploy and how they make money. The S and P is trading at a P of 20 and Apollo's trading at 14 to 17 times. TPG is trading at about a one third discount but to fair value estimates. It's got unbelievable fundraising and it's expanding their fee earnings. And again the price reflects pessimism more than growth trajectory. And by the way, there's absolutely no evidence other than creative writing that any of these companies are experiencing. I work or co invest with some of these companies. They're fucking juggernauts. They're raising more money than ever.

1:04:27

But it's public feeling about it. Investor nervous sentiment. Yeah sentiment.

1:05:37

But there's narrative in their number and I believe over the medium and long

1:05:40

term the numbers went outie. It's an opportunity is what it is.

1:05:44

These companies have shed between 20 and 40% of their value in the last 12 months while continuing to grow their AUM and their fees. Blue Owl, it's got a 7 to 8% dividend yield and you know this because of market discounting private credit fears. So there's a growth versus valuation in my view mismatch in that all of these companies are growing their assets under management and their fees, which is is what essentially is their revenues. And the sector has had multiple contraction or compression due to private credit liquidity fears because of some of these creative writing projects. And in my view the market pricing risks are more. The market is pricing risks more aggressively than current earnings trends justify. That's My thesis. So let me. I'll just wrap it up. My one line thesis is the following. Compress multiples and. And durable fee growth plus strong fundraising. And I know these companies, they're really well run in my view. All adds up to potential relative undervaluation versus the broader market.

1:05:48

All right, I like it. It's the same thing you were talking about last week. Okay. Look for opportunities, including you Netflix. Just so you know, next week we'll be talking about Hillary Clinton's testifying about Epstein. Anyway, we'll be talking about that, but I want to actually get our listeners to write us in, give their own prediction. Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez have been named honorary chairs of Met Gal. They essentially are paying for it. And that's how that happened. The dress code is fashion is art. I want to know what you think Lauren and Jeff will dress up as. What art thing will they dress up as?

1:06:52

There's only two things I'm certain about there. Wardrobe, boobs, Hundred percent whatever. She's wearing both of them. She's not wearing an outfit. Her breasts are. And I'm here for. For it. I think she's a beautiful woman and have at it. But let me be clear.

1:07:25

Let's be fair. He's been improving his boobs too. But go ahead.

1:07:43

Let's be clear. There is like Vogue and Conde Nast. They're smart people. They invest in cable companies. Those assets. The magazines have literally been just like a slow burn to irrelevance. Hearst is invested in all these incredible data companies like Fitch and this airline line data company. They've actually grown their revenues. Conde Nast has not. But the reporting I want to see. The only thing I know

1:07:47

is that

1:08:15

Lauren's going to have her girls in the window, and I'm here for it. And two, somehow, indirectly, there is an exchange of money here.

1:08:15

There is.

1:08:23

Oh, is it already out?

1:08:25

Oh, yeah.

1:08:26

No, they're like backing.

1:08:26

They're paying for it.

1:08:28

Yeah. Anna Wintour shucked them down. They turned them upside down, got their wallet, put them on the COVID They're paying for the whole thing.

1:08:29

Put them upside down. And certain things moved and certain things didn't.

1:08:35

That's correct. The money moved out of their pockets and now they can.

1:08:39

Oh, well, there you go.

1:08:41

The king and queen.

1:08:42

Good for them.

1:08:43

We would like. I feel good about this.

1:08:44

I'm here for his midlife crisis. I like. I can't help it. I love it. What are they dressing?

1:08:46

I want listeners right in and we'll read them. What art will they dress up as we need specifics. Sexy moments.

1:08:49

I hope we get invited. I'd like to go to that. Do you think they'll invite us?

1:08:56

No, I don't think they will. All right, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind and whatever you think Lauren and Jeff are gonna wear. Go to nymag.com pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551, pivot before we go. As we said, Scott and I also, besides Minneapolis, we're both returning to south by Southwest in Austin for three shows on the Vox Media podcast stage. It's a total south by Southwest takeover. Cause we are the king and queen. Speaking of which, we stop. We'll have his boobs out, Just so you know. On a platter.

1:08:59

First, I'll be doing live taping of Propg Markets with ed Elson on March 13, where every person over the age of 40 will come up and go, I love your POC. Is Ed single? I have a daughter. Literally. I'm so sick of people trying to set Ed up.

1:09:33

Well, he's more handsome than you are.

1:09:44

He's very handsome. He's my handsome kid, too.

1:09:46

I mean, it's a low bar, but. And then on March 15th at 10am I'll be doing a live taping of on with two special guests I'm really excited about finally. We'll take the stage together on March 15th at 11:30 for a live TV taping of Pivot. You can touch Scott's. You can touch Scott's body part.

1:09:48

Scott Bear.

1:10:05

Scott Bear. Yeah. Anyway, last year's Pivot taping at south by Southwest featured whiskey shots, partial nudity, IPO predictions, and some smart questions from our audience.

1:10:06

Love it.

1:10:15

So we will. We're gonna double the fuck down on it on that, and you don't wanna miss it.

1:10:16

I love By Southwest. Aren't you excited?

1:10:21

Yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited to hang out with you. I'm excited. We're doing a lot of traveling together this year.

1:10:23

Oh. It's part of the Vox Media podcast stage.

1:10:27

Presented by Odoo, the stage also features se from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Estad Herndon.

1:10:29

As long as Esther Perel is there to tell me that I'm okay.

1:10:37

I don't know if she's going to be there, but nonetheless, learn more and get a special discount on your innovation badge@voxmedia.com SXSW that's voxmedia.com SXSW we will see you there. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week.

1:10:40

Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertodd engineered this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mia Savira, and Dan Shalon. Nishat Karo is Vox Media's Executive producer. Podcast make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine nymag.com pod we'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. One of my role models, Sam Harris, said that if you have economic security and people who love you, and I'm blessed with both those things, you have an obligation to speak your mind.

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