WSJ What’s News

Why the U.A.E. Is Breaking Up With OPEC

15 min
Apr 28, 2026about 1 month ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The UAE is leaving OPEC, a major blow to the cartel that removes 13% of its production capacity and reflects shifting geopolitical alliances in the Middle East. The episode also covers a Senate housing bill's unintended consequence of freezing the build-to-rent sector, Justice Department charges against former FBI Director James Comey, and concerns about Chinese automakers entering the U.S. market.

Insights
  • UAE's OPEC exit signals a strategic pivot toward independent production growth (targeting 5M barrels/day vs. current 3.4M limit) rather than cartel coordination, reflecting broader erosion of OPEC's market control as U.S. energy exports rise
  • A single provision in housing legislation—requiring build-to-rent firms to divest assets within 7 years—has frozen 10,000+ housing units before the bill even passed, demonstrating how regulatory uncertainty can chill investment in emerging market segments
  • Trump administration messaging on Chinese automakers remains inconsistent, creating uncertainty for lawmakers and domestic manufacturers concerned about market access negotiations at upcoming Xi summit
  • NVIDIA, Oracle, and CoreWeave stocks declined after OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, signaling potential slowdown in AI boom momentum despite continued market enthusiasm
  • Iranian cyber attacks targeting 2,000+ U.S. Marines in Persian Gulf region underscore escalating digital warfare risks amid Middle East tensions
Trends
OPEC's declining geopolitical leverage as U.S. shale production and alternative energy reduce cartel's market influenceBuild-to-rent sector emerging as significant rental market force but facing existential regulatory threats from housing policy provisionsChinese EV manufacturers positioning as disruptive threat with aggressive pricing and advanced technology, challenging domestic automakers' competitivenessAI investment momentum showing signs of deceleration as revenue/user growth targets miss expectations despite hype cycleEscalating Iranian cyber operations targeting U.S. military personnel as part of broader Middle East conflict escalationUltra-luxury real estate market reaching record valuations ($400M+ properties) despite broader housing affordability crisisTariff policy uncertainty creating strategic planning challenges for automakers and trade negotiationsGeneral Motors benefiting from EV pullback and tariff refunds, signaling potential shift in consumer vehicle preferences toward traditional powertrains
Companies
OPEC
UAE's departure removes 13% of OPEC's production capacity, significantly weakening the cartel's market control and fl...
General Motors
Beat Q1 earnings estimates, raised guidance, benefiting from lower EV costs and $500M tariff refund; CEO Mary Barra d...
OpenAI
Missed internal revenue and user targets, triggering stock declines in AI-linked companies including NVIDIA, Oracle, ...
NVIDIA
Stock declined after OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, signaling potential slowdown in AI boom momentum
Oracle
Stock declined following OpenAI's missed internal revenue and user targets
CoreWeave
Stock declined following OpenAI's missed internal revenue and user targets
Disney
FCC Chairman Brendan Carr launched early review of Disney's eight ABC TV broadcast licenses following Trump's call to...
International Energy Agency
Provided production capacity figures showing UAE's exit removes 13% of OPEC's total production capacity
AAA
Reported U.S. average gas prices reached $4.18/gallon, another wartime high
People
Georgi Kanchyev
Discussed UAE's OPEC exit, reasons for departure, and implications for oil markets and OPEC's flexibility
Ryan Felton
Analyzed Chinese automakers' U.S. market entry threats, Trump's inconsistent messaging, and domestic industry concerns
Rebecca Picciotto
Explained Senate housing bill's build-to-rent provision requiring asset divestment within 7 years, freezing 10,000+ h...
Mary Barra
Discussed GM's portfolio flexibility and ability to adapt to consumer preference shifts amid changing market conditions
James Comey
Charged by Justice Department for second time with threatening Trump based on social media post with seashells arrang...
Brendan Carr
Launched early review of Disney's ABC TV broadcast licenses following Trump's criticism of Jimmy Kimmel
Donald Trump
Made inconsistent statements on Chinese automakers; called for ABC's Jimmy Kimmel to be fired; met with King Charles
King Charles
Visited Washington, addressed joint session of Congress, emphasized U.S.-U.K. partnership and shared democratic tradi...
Alex Osola
Hosted WSJ What's News PM edition, conducted interviews and presented daily business headlines
Quotes
"Being in OPEC, it functions as a straight jacket. Right now, they're supposed to be producing around 3.4 million barrels a day... they want to increase that by up to 5 million."
Georgi Kanchyev
"A lot of build-to-rent firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct, essentially."
Rebecca Picciotto
"China's carmakers are able to sell vehicles at very aggressive, low prices. And the vehicles they're selling are packed with a lot of cool, new technology. The main concern is domestic carmakers, as of now, can't compete."
Ryan Felton
"Ours is a partnership born out of dispute, but no less strong for it. So perhaps in this example, we can discern that our nations are in fact instinctively like-minded."
King Charles
"We're well prepared with a portfolio. I'd stand against anyone when we look at how consumer behavior might shift, depending on how long the war left, but we just don't know."
Mary Barra
Full Transcript
Nearly home. Isn't home where we all want to be? Reba here for Realtor.com, the Pro's number one most trusted app. A dream home isn't a dream home if it comes with a nightmare commute. That's why Realtor.com has Real Commute, so you can search by drive time. Download the Realtor.com app today, because you're nearly home. Make it real with Realtor.com. Pro's number one most trusted app, based on August 2025 proprietary survey. The UAE is leaving OPEC. We'll get into what that means for the oil cartel and the oil market. Plus, why a bill intended to create homes has led to an existential crisis for developers that build homes to rent them. A lot of build-to-rent firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct, essentially. And the Justice Department charges former FBI Director James Comey for a second time. It's Tuesday, April 28th. I'm Alex Osola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The United Arab Emirates said today that it would leave OPEC. It's a heavy blow to the oil cartel. The UAE is OPEC's third biggest producer. And according to figures by the International Energy Agency, its exit takes away 13 percent of OPEC's production capacity. For more, I'm joined now by WSJ foreign correspondent Georgi Kanchyev. Georgi, why is the UAE doing this and why now when the war with Iran has hurt a lot of energy infrastructure in the region? One of the reasons is that they have a very ambitious investment program. They want to kind of increase their oil production capacity in the future. And being in OPEC, it functions as a straight jacket. Right now, they're supposed to be producing around 3.4 million barrels a day. Of course, right now, they're producing far less because of the crisis, but they want to increase that by up to 5 million. They want to be able to produce freely outside of the cartel. Another reason is that they've had kind of a rift with Saudi Arabia, which is the dominant producer in OPEC. For a number of years. And all of that, now we have the Iran war, of course, reshuffling the alliances of the region. To some extent, they're looking beyond the current war. The UAE seems to be making this calculated decision that longer term, they can increase output by a lot. This move also comes at a time when the U.S.'s rise as an energy exporter has kind of diminished OPEC's influence on energy markets. Where does the UAE's departure leave OPEC? this decision by the UAE to leave. It's a big blow to OPEC because ultimately this is the third biggest producer. Also important here is that the UAE and Saudi Arabia, these are the only two countries that actually have spare capacity, meaning that they can ramp up production quickly. All the other countries are producing kind of close to their potential limit, which means that in another situation of supply shock, they can increase production quickly. That is being obviously taken out now with UAE leaving from May 1st, which is just in a few days. And that obviously decreases the flexibility of OPEC to manage the market, which they have done for decades. Looking at oil prices today, they don't seem super affected by the announcement. But what about in the future How could the UAE departure from OPEC affect energy markets Right now there is really not much of an impact precisely because all the countries in the Gulf are constricted by the Strait of Hormuz But in the longer run if the UAE increases its production, that would potentially add more oil to the market, which means prices could go down. That was WSJ foreign correspondent Georgi Kanchov. The Justice Department has secured a new indictment against former FBI Director James Comey, a prominent critic of President Trump. Prosecutors charged Comey with threatening Trump based on a photo Comey posted on social media last year. In the photo, seashells were arranged in the numbers 86-47. Trump officials at the time said it was a threat to encourage killing Trump, as 86 is old timeslang for get rid of, and Trump is the 47th president. Comey said then that it didn't occur to him that the post would be read as a threat. He and lawyers representing him didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The case is the Justice Department's second attempt to prosecute Comey. He was charged in September with lying to Congress, but a judge dismissed that case. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr is launching an early review of Disney's broadcast television licenses. Disney owns eight ABC TV outlets. The review of the licenses comes a day after President Trump called for ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel to be fired. The review is an outgrowth of an earlier FCC probe into Disney's DEI initiatives. A person familiar with the FCC's plans says that the review coming so soon after Kimmel's fight with the administration is a coincidence. Disney says that the record demonstrates that it's qualified to hold the licenses. In earnings, General Motors beat Wall Street estimates for profitability in the first quarter and raised its guidance for the year. Helping boost its bottom line were lower costs from its pullback in electric vehicles, along with an expected $500 million tariff refund. So far, GM says consumers still want its larger trucks and SUVs, despite higher oil prices. But CEO Mary Barra says the automaker's vehicle lineup can handle changes in consumer preferences. We're well prepared with, you know, a portfolio. I'd stand against anyone when we look at how consumer behavior might shift, depending on how long the war left, but we just don't know. And in other auto news, Chinese automakers have been trying to break into the U.S. for years. More than 70 Democratic representatives sent a letter to President Trump today to keep the pressure on China. They say any effort to lower barriers for Chinese cars is a threat to U.S. manufacturing, workers, and national security. Ryan Felton covers the automotive industry for the journal and joins me now. Ryan, China's carmakers have been largely kept out of the U.S. because of tariffs on vehicle imports and a ban on Chinese connected vehicle software. So why are lawmakers and U.S. companies worried that might change? The biggest thing right now is the summit is coming over the next few weeks. The meeting in May between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, right? Yes. This upcoming meeting, you know, could have some stakes for China's automakers. That's what's pushing some of these lawmakers. Where does President Trump stand on this issue right now? There isn't the most consistent messaging from President Trump on this. A few months ago, he came to Detroit for a speech. And this remark basically was him saying, I would welcome any Chinese automakers to come here and build in the United States. He's also made a lot of pointed remarks about the Chinese auto industry and what it's done elsewhere. He said in an interview that the 100 tariff applied to Chinese EVs was the one good thing he thinks Joe Biden did So there some conflict in those two points Like would he welcome them still to build here? Or is he coming around to the idea that they should be kept out at all costs? Part of what's driving the letter from lawmakers today is that U.S. automakers are very concerned about China and Chinese carmakers. Why is that? What is the threat to the domestic industry? China's carmakers are able to sell vehicles at very aggressive, low prices. And the vehicles they're selling are packed with a lot of cool, new technology. The main concern is domestic carmakers, as of now, can't compete. And that reality is what's led automakers to say it's an existential threat to the industry here. That was WSJ reporter Ryan Felton. Thanks so much, Ryan. Thanks for having me. Stocks linked to the AI boom dropped today after, as you heard on this morning's show, OpenAI has missed internal revenue and user targets. That meant declines in NVIDIA, Oracle, and CoreWeave. The Nasdaq led losses in the three major indexes today and closed down 0.9%. percent. Meanwhile, oil prices gained after an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was met with skepticism from President Trump. And gas prices in the U.S. have reached another wartime high. According to AAA, the average price is now $4.18 a gallon. Coming up, King Charles is in Washington, playing up transatlantic ties during a moment in this special relationship. That's after the break. Available wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. The Trump administration and Congress have been trying to tackle the issue of home affordability this year. One measure, a Senate housing bill, was meant to create new housing. But even though the bill isn't law yet, it's already having a chilling effect on one part of the real estate market, the build-to-rent industry. Housing policy lobby groups say that developers have put at least 10,000 new housing units on hold, likely a sliver of the impact across the industry. WSJ housing reporter Rebecca Picciotto says developers are reacting to a provision inside the bill. So the Senate passed this landmark housing bill and touted it as something that was going to make it easier and faster to produce new housing. But there was one small provision that would require build-to-rent firms to sell any of their newly constructed homes within seven years of building them. Developers of these build-to-rent projects say that these are assets that they see as long-term investments that they want to generate profit off of for many, many years to come. This idea that within seven years you'd have to sell your entire portfolio off has frozen the pipeline for financing for new investment. So as a result a lot of bill firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct essentially Rebecca says that it's not clear what will happen with the legislation. The prospect that this one provision could threaten the life of the entire Senate bill, I don't think anyone wants that, especially given the midterm elections coming up. Everyone wants a housing win to campaign on. So there's a sense that a deal will get worked out, but things are very much still kind of in a deadlock. Meanwhile, the ultra-luxury housing market is reaching new heights. A Los Angeles estate with ties to Qatari Royals is hitting the market for $400 million. The 70,000-square-foot property is the most expensive home listed for sale in the U.S. and could propel the uber-luxury housing market. Whether you're looking to spend $400 million or $400,000 on a home, we want to hear from you. Are worries about mortgage rates, inflation, or the economy affecting your search? And what are prices like where you live? Send a voice memo to wnpod at wsj.com or leave a voicemail with your name and location at 212-416-4328. We might use it on the show. Britain's King Charles is in Washington. After a military ceremony today with President Trump, during which the president praised the friendship between the U.S. and U.K., Charles addressed a joint session of Congress. During his speech, Charles alluded to tensions between the U.K. and its former colony and urged the two nations to continue to work together. Ours is a partnership born out of dispute, but no less strong for it. So perhaps in this example, we can discern that our nations are in fact instinctively like-minded, a product of the common democratic, legal and social traditions in which our governance is rooted to this day. Drawing on these values and traditions time and again, our two countries have always found ways to come together. And by Jove, Mr Speaker, when we have found that way to agree, What great change is brought about, not just for the benefit of our peoples, but of all peoples. On the war in the Middle East, Iranian hackers have targeted hundreds of U.S. service members and officials in recent cyber attacks. Handala hack team, which is linked to the Iranian government, today claim to have published the names and other personal details of more than 2,000 Marines stationed in the Persian Gulf region. The Pentagon is investigating, but early indications suggest that at least some of the leaked information is authentic. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Anthony Bansi, Danny Lewis and Alyssa Luckpat with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osula for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening. How are the U.S. businesses of Philip Morris International invested in America? We're invested in advancing science, giving adults who smoke better options. We're invested in American manufacturing, helping local economies thrive. We're invested in community, supporting military veterans and their families, disaster relief, and economic empowerment. Because we're proud to be invested in America. 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