LSU’s Season Is Slipping Away… Can They Survive THIS Weekend?!

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Can LSU get right in Starkville against the Bulldogs? It's locked on lsu. Here we go. You are Locked on lsu. Your daily podcast on the LSU Tigers, part of the Locked On Podcast network. Your team every day. Okay, let's get it. It is locked on lsu. Your team every day. I'm your host Matt Moscone. Thanks so much for making us your first listen. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now new customers can bet just $5 and get $250 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. So head to FanDuel.com to get started. Well, LSU baseball is headed to Starkville for a three game series against the Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU and State were scheduled for 6 o' clock first pitch in game one on Friday. Due to the threat of inclement weather in Starkville, that game has been moved up to three o'clock on Friday afternoon and I might submit that is a ever so slight advantage for lsu. Not that the Tigers are in any way unaccustomed to playing in front of big crowds and leverage situations. But this is super Bulldog weekend in Mississippi there in Starkville and they plan a giant giant weekend around it with people who come in specifically for this weekend. Throughout the year they try to set attendance records of Duty Noble Field. They may still do that, but it's certainly more challenging at 3 o' clock in the afternoon on a Friday than a prime time game on Friday night when everyone's off work and etc you get it. So maybe a little bit lesser of A crowd than full throat 15,000 that they might have otherwise anticipated before this game was moved due to weather. But you have two teams right now that are right now vying for very different things. Mississippi State is 10 and 8 in league play through six weeks and they are very much in the thick of the hosting conversation. And a national seed isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, LSU is 63 in the RPI. They've lost six straight SEC games. They're 6 and 12 in the conference and and it is mathematically unlikely that LSU makes the NCAA tournament. They're going to have to do something extraordinary over the final four weekends of league playing in the SEC tournament to hear their name called on selection Monday there on Memorial Day. So why not start now if you're LSU, a little bit of a background on these two teams. So again, Bulldogs 31 and 10, 10 and 8 in the conference. LSU 24 and 18, just 6 and 12 in league play. This has been a really competitive series over the last nine times that they've met. LSU has won five of the last nine. Mississippi State has won four of the last nine. So the teams have split the last nine. Five for lsu, four for Mississippi State. The pitching matchups this weekend are going to be quite honestly skewed toward Mississippi State. And the math really bears out for this Bulldog team. You know, on the mound. They're third in the SEC with a 342-era, 467 strikeouts in 353 innings pitched. They've allowed just 35 homers. So this is a team that can really pitch it. And they're led by their ace Tomas Valinkas, going to get the ball on Friday. If you have not seen Tomas Valencus, he is probably the best, most consistent pitcher in the Southeastern conference. He has a 181 ERA. He has thrown 59⅓ innings on the season. He's allowed just 12 runs, 83 again, 59⅓ innings pitched, 83 strikeouts to just 13 walks and opponents at 195 against him. He has been just flat out awesome. Georgia I think is the best team in the sec. Maybe the best team in the country. Certainly the best offense in the SEC by a country. Mile Blinkus went seven and a third against the Bulldogs and allowed two runs on four hits. He struck out 10, walked one. He was awesome. He's a lefty. He can get up to 98. You just don't see a lot of guys like Tomas Valencas at the college level, which is why college Hitters really struggle when they have to see guys like this. Think Kate Anderson, you don't typically see, you know, mid upper 90s lefties with a wipeout breaking ball or multiple breaking balls at the college level. Kate Anderson had it a year ago and he dominated. Tomas Villenquez has it now and he's dominating and next year he's only a sophomore by the way. So next year Villenkis will be a when he's draft eligible and is going to be a potential top left handed arm in college just like Kate Anderson was. He went third in the draft like that's Valinkas next year. So LSU's offense which has really struggled is got a major task against against Vincus on Friday. So we'll see if the Tigers are able to get anything going then. You look at Saturday's Game 2 and William Schmidt we know has amazing stuff. He's a great prospect. He's going to be going up against another sophomore righty in Duke Stone. This is where the inconsistency comes in for Mississippi State behind the link is at times these guys have been very good. They just haven't been consistent throughout the course of the season. So Stone SEC hitters are batting.288 against him. So you can get off against Stone. And then Charlie Foster is going to go in Game 3 on Sunday and he's a lefty and he'll get up to 96. But the problem is people have really hit his fastball and his ERA in conference play is five. So you can score runs like there. There's big time stuff with all three of these guys. Recently Baseball America had a tweet projecting all three guys I just mentioned with Vincus, Stone and Foster all being first round picks in 2027. So you're talking about right now a young but extremely talented pitching staff from Mississippi State. Three sophomores are going to get the ball. None of them are draft eligible. Next year they're all going to be back and this might be the best rotation in country next year and a team that is might well be the favorite to win the national championship next year. Right now there's just been a smidge of inconsistency. So for lsu offensively you got to find yourself because you can find it against this Mississippi State team. Consider this, while this team, Mississippi state team is 10 and 8 in league play, they've been very good. Each of the last five weekends State has been involved in sweeps. I mean that's almost uncanny. They swept Vanderbilt, they swept Ole Miss, then they got swept by Georgia and Tennessee at home. And then they went to South Carolina and swept the Gamecocks, who are not very good. But keep in mind what I just said. Mississippi State has lost their last six home SEC baseball games. So this is a team that can get got. Now, Georgia's great, but Tennessee isn't. And they swept Mississippi State in Starkville. I think both those teams, even though LSU won a series against Tennessee, that was felt like a lifetime ago, but both of those teams I think are better than LSU is right now. So it's a gigantic challenge to go to Starkville with a giant crowd, a great environment, a wounded team in LSU against a Mississippi State team that is playing for darn near everything. Still, at this point, it is going to be a steep hill to climb for LSU to go to Starkville and try to get a win, a series win against Mississippi State. Now, the thing that LSU has going for it oddly in the last week is all of a sudden the bullpen has started to pitch really well. And this happens every year. Not just that the bullpen starts pitching well, but what happens is by the time you get to the final month of the season, you recognize that you have pared down your rotation. You have recognized who the guys are you can count on in what situation. So you know Kayson Evans and William Schmidt are going to be at the front of your rotation. You know that. You know Zach Cowan is your most reliable arm out of the bullpen. You have seen Devin Sheeran as an amazing back end of the bullpen guy who also gave you over four innings pitched last weekend. Grant Fonda, Connor Benji been hit or miss. But Danny Lockenmeyer has been outstanding the past couple of weeks, as has Cooper Williams and Marcus Paz is certainly trending up. Maverick Rizzy, Gavin Guidry, Santiago Garcia have had moments. They've also had moments where they've really struggled. So you've identified the seven or so pitchers that can get you through a weekend if they're pitching effectively. And you're going to need to do that against this Mississippi State team, which on paper looks really good. But again, they have been very inconsistent this year, which is why it's tough to be all in on a young Mississippi state team. They're second in the SEC with a team batting average of.316. Bryce Chance is hitting.364. Most people will know Ace Reese who's the biggest aim and best bat and big best talent in their lineup. But Ace Rhys has really struggled up into this point in in league play. So it's a a real opportunity for lsu. Not to say that this is one where LSU is going to go on the road and win the weekend against Mississippi State. But it is a Mississippi State team that has been vulnerable and if LSU plays its best ball, it'll have a chance maybe to scratch out a win in one of the first two and force a, you know, force a rubber match on Sunday and Sundays in the SEC can certainly be unpredictable. Ace Reese is hitting just.216 in conference play, so the overall numbers look good. The inconsistency is kind of what is mired Mississippi State at times this year. Now the flip side of that is LSU is a massive challenge going into this weekend knowing they have no Cooper Moore and no Jake Brown, who leads the team at homers and rbi. So how does LSU find some type of advantage in this weekend? We'll talk about that with Kendall Rogers from D1 Baseball when we continue. 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Get right back to the show here in just a second, but I want to remind you you can get locked on LSU AD free with the Everydayer Club plus Members Only Discord Access, so join at the link in the show Notes Every week we talk to Kendall Rogers from D1 Baseball, who really is the preeminent national college baseball writer and a guy who's very generous with his time known Kendall a long time and you know, we preview the week in the sec and certainly thoughts on the LSU weekend ahead. So Kendall was obviously very dismayed by what he saw from lsu, paraphrasing that he never seen an LSU team feel like they didn't even have a chance in a weekend series. That's how it felt last week. If you watched LSU against Texas A and M, the Tigers looked and felt completely outclassed the entire weekend. LSU never led, not once the entire weekend against Texas A and M. So it's going to take a much better effort and I think Kendall understands that.

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It's weird to say with lsu, but I mean, they are at this point playing with house money. Like nobody expects them to get determined anymore. Like everybody expects their season to be over at the end of Hoover. So now it's like, if you're lsu, like at this point, what do you have to lose? And so what I would like to see this team to do, and honestly, it kind of starts with Jay a little bit. Like, I know he said some very pointed things over the weekend, which he made some good points. I don't know if I'm saying that on April 17, but I think he had some really good points. But I think now if you go to Mississippi State this weekend, like if you're LSU again, you have nothing to lose. Mississippi State is trying to get back in the hosting mix. They're at home. Everybody thinks they're going to, you know, I wouldn't say smoke, but everybody thinks they're going to beat lsu. So the pressure is on Mississippi State. So I'm curious now that, you know, the players know that Jay Brown's out, they know that nobody expects him to win. Do all of a sudden they play a lot better. I'm not going to say they're they're going to make some big run, but they play a little bit more loose. I thought LSU looked very tight over the weekend where A and M looked like the team that LSU typically is.

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You know, I understand Kendall's point, but I'm not going to use that because I used that a week ago. You know, I'm a big believer in not just who you play, but when and where you play them. The spot on the schedule matters if you're a sports better. We talk often about the the field storm fade or the court storm fade. Team wins big basketball game, the fans rush the court bet against that team the next time out, there's going to be a letdown. Well, you looked at this past Weekend with Texas A and M coming into the box, LSU is fresh off a sweep at Ole Miss, really in a pretty desperate spot. Texas A and M had a major emotional weekend with Jim Schlossnagel bringing the Longhorns back to College Station for the first time. And A and M got two wins. The third game was rained out. And so the thought was LSU is catching A and M at a great spot. A desperate LSU team against an A and M team that probably is still basking in the afterglow of their series win against Texas. And the exact opposite happened. I mean, the situation didn't favor lsu. It favored the better team. And the better team was Texas A and M. And the better team this weekend is Mississippi State, who's also at home. So a massive challenge for lsu. But I did ask Kendall if he thought if LSU had any advantage anywhere in the state series.

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Mississippi State, when you look at them overall, I think there have been some times this year where you can hit them a little bit. I know over the weekend against South Carolina their pitching was pretty good, but there have been a couple of series where they have been hit a little bit. So I think for me, I think if you're J. Johnson, you start to get really creative offensively. You know, you don't have one of your better hitters in the lineup, so kind of do what you can to move runners, create some momentum. And so that, that for me is just, you know, the offense and you know, can you just create things that. That would be the one thing for me because I do think Mississippi State will score runs and obviously it would be pretty important for LSU to score more than two runs.

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LSU scoring two runs a game last weekend in the series against Texas A and M, just eight runs over three games was just an atrocity. You're not going to win. Especially Sundays in the SEC where you hold a really good offense like A and M to five runs and you lose five to two. It's, it's just an unacceptable reality, especially for a Jay Johnson coach Dolphins, where that is the focus of what Jay does and his teams are generally very good offensively. They were not a week ago and they have not really been this year. Now we mentioned that Valencas is going to start for Mississippi State in game one. And so that raises a pretty interesting question for Jay Johnson, what he does in the lineup, because it's typically an LSU lineup that's kind of loaded with lefties. So do you find a way to get more right handed bats in the lineup? For example, you've seen Zach York and you've now seen Braun at first base. What's a couple left handed hitters? Edward Yaman is a righty. If you wanted to put Yaman at first base to get another right handed bat in the lineup, you could certainly do that. Kate Aaron Beatty obviously is a right handed hitter, so it could be one of those situations where you try to get Aaron Beatty in the lineup along with Omar Cerna. Could Serna catch an Aon Bey DH or inverse those if Aaron Bey catches and Cerna DH's but either way that gets you another right two more right handed bats in the lineup, you could look at second base where Dardar, if he's able to play, is a lefty. Do you play Braden Simpson a righty to get another right handed bat in the lineup? I'll remind you in the game against Ole Miss on that Sunday where Ellis you had the big seven run seventh to rally and tie it, Braden Simpson had a massive two out two RBI single. I'm not saying one at bat sort of makes the career for Braden Simpson because it's been a really rough go in Baton Rouge. But that's another right handed bat who could get in the lineup for you if you want to load up with righties against Vincus on Friday afternoon in Starkville. So we'll see how the Tigers choose to line it up against Mississippi State in Game one, but facing a lefty and Tomas Valencas, who's the best arm in the sec. I would not anticipate seeing a lot of offense in Game one. But that just means that Casey Evans has to really be on point to limit Mississippi State's offense to give LSU a chance to win the game once they get into Mississippi State's bullpen. Okay, it is after it is locked on lsu, we are glad to have you aboard with us here. LSU and Mississippi State three game series out in Starkville this weekend and the Tigers will have a real massive opportunity. Game 1 as we mentioned has been moved to 3 o' clock on Saturday. On Friday game 2 is a 6:30pm first pitch on ESPN2 and then Sunday is a 1 o' clock first pitch on the SEC network. So big opportunity for LSU with just 12 league games to go, time to make some hay. It starts this weekend against Mississippi State. Certainly keep you posted. It is locked on lsu, your team every day, Workplace chaos, deadlines stacking up, inbox overflowing and the one position you have to fill is still sitting open when the pressure's on and you need the right Hire this is a job for Sponsored Jobs Indeed Sponsor Jobs helps you reach the people who actually fit what you're looking for. Skills, experience, location. So you're not just hoping the right candidate stumbles across your post and the stat that says it all. In the minutes since we've been talking, companies like yours made 27 hires on Indeed. That's according to Indeed Data Worldwide. So if you're hiring, spend less time searching, more time interviewing candidates who check all of your boxes with Indeed Sponsored Jobs and listeners of locked on. LSU will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your job the premium status it deserves@ Indeed.com podcast just go to Indeed.com podcast right and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed unlocked on lsu indeed.com podcast terms and conditions apply. Need to hire. This is a job for Indeed Sponsor

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1 quick NFL draft note is Monsoor Delaine went six overall to the Kansas City Chiefs. And I'm not trying to submit or suggest how Delane might fit with the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't cover the Chiefs. I don't necess really care. What I do care very much about is LSU guys going to the next level and how that may help LSU continue to recruit that position. Because look, LSU had earned the moniker of DBU because for more than a decade they had pumped players in the defensive backfield into the draft. Especially high levels of the draft better than any other program in the country. And yes, I know Florida and Ohio State and Southern Cal at times try to make a claim for dbu. But the reality is what it is the all Americans, the first round picks, the the the national award winners. LSU is the very clear answer of DBU in this era anyway of SEC defensive backs. So it's a, it's one of those where to have a season like this for Monsor to Lane I think is really significant because you know Corey Raymond was the the defensive back coach on the national championship team in 2019 and after that, you know, we obviously saw Corey go to Florida we saw a consolidation of the, of the, the coaching there in the defensive backfield with, you know, a split between the cornerback and the safeties coach, which you still have right now, but which reality is a lot of the key players transferred out when Corey Raymond left and you haven't adequately replaced them. You've tried in the portal and you hit the first year under Brian Kelly on guys like Greg Brooks and Joe Fouche and Makai Gardner. And some years you missed like a year later when you went and signed, you know, a douche chestnut and he had seven banks. You just missed, you missed left and right all up and down that defensive backfield. So for, you know, for LSU right now, for Corey Raymond, for Dave Aranda. Excuse me, for, for Blake Baker, I had Dave Aranda on the mind, sorry. If for Lane Kiffin. The real key for LSU continuing to have success is to have these players go on to the next level and you reach, reach their goals in college. Like Delane being a unanimous All American. Monster Delane is the 14th unanimous All American in the history of the program. The only the fourth defensive back to be a unanimous All American. Patrick Peterson, Mo Claiborne, Grant, Delpit, Monsour, Delaine. That's it. That's the list. Tyron Matthew in his Heisman finalist season was not a unanimous All American, as ridiculous as that sounds. But the point being, what Monster Delane did this past season is really, really stinking hard to do. And I think that just continues to elevate because you saw a guy, this is something Corey Raymond and Lane Kiffin can go sell because you had a guy at Virginia Tech who's a good defensive back. He was a second third team all conference guy, good defensive back. He comes to LSU for one year and he becomes otherworldly. You know, Monster Delane plays in all but the one game against Western Kentucky, did not play in the bowl game, but you know, that 12 game regular season, played in 11 regular season games, missed the Western Kentucky game. But this was a guy who allowed 14 receptions on the entire season. Let that sink in Montreal now. 14 receptions on the entire season, you know, this is a guy in Montserrat, Elena did not allow a touchdown reception on the entire season. He was so outstanding that every accolade that he had come in his way was certainly well deserved. So for Monsor Delane to be able to go one overall and now to look at LSU and say, okay, we'll look at the pipeline. DJ Pickett was the five star, number one corner in the country and looks it right Now Haven Phinney, who's a freshman, early enrollee, reclass Finney should be in the sophomore semester of his junior year of high school. Instead, he's going through spring practice at LSU as a reclass and early enrollee. Now, I don't know what his role is going to be within the LSU football program. What I do know is he's going to have a significant role because they keep getting these key players that are outstanding at that position and you continue to see him grow and develop. So, you know, you look at DJ Pickett, who was the five star, number one corner in the country from a year ago, you look at Haven Finney, who for 2027 was the number one corner in America, who reclassed for 2026. And now we've talked plenty about Joshua Dobson, who's five star number one corner in the country for 2027, who's down to his final five finalists. But it really feels like this is an LSU, a battle with maybe a school like Michigan. Perhaps so. But you feel great if you're LSU about your opportunity to land, you know, Dobson. So it's going to be fascinating to watch how all of this plays out. But you know, I, I think what's of the utmost importance for us here on Locked On LSU is not necessarily so much what Monsor Delane does for the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't really care about the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm fired up for Monsor Delaney, you know, being the sixth pick in the draft and who's going to go sign a 40 plus million dollar contract with more than 20 million in guaranteed money. And I'm super excited for Delane and that's something certainly LSU can sell. But more so it's selling your transfers and your newcomers. Hey look, come here. Buy in, play the system and that can happen for you. Maybe you're not destined to be a first round pick. Maybe you were a UDFA that becomes a fourth round pick, increasing your likelihood of making the team. All that to say I think it's a real win for LSU with how they've handled this, this off season and certainly for, for dbu and Corey Raymond as he continues to try to, to recruit and develop the best defensive backs in the country, to reclaim that moniker of dbu and seeing guy like Monor Delaine go from Virginia Tech where he was a marginal day three pick to quite literally the first cornerback taken in the draft where Kansas City traded up in round one in the top 10 to get him, that is a huge win for Monor Delaine. It is a huge win for LSU football. So congrats to Mons Delaine, the sixth overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. Okay y', all, that's just about going to do it for us here. Thanks for tuning in to Locked on lsu. Make sure that you subscribe and follow Locked on LSU so you get all the latest episodes. And if you never miss an episode, the Everyday Club is built for you. You can get locked on LSU ad free members only discord access and so much more. So head to the link in the show notes if you want to join the members Only club. And for those of you on video, we're going to send you to the first ever 24. 7 National Locked On Podcast Network YouTube channel on audio. Make sure you make your second listen locked on College Basketball or Locked On College Football. That'll do it for us. Here it is. Locked on lsu, your team. Every day, Liberty Mutual customizes your car and home insurance to save you money. That's it. That's the ad. No bells and whistles. No guys, I said no bells and whistles. No trombones are fine. Visit libertymutual.com and make the switch today.

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