The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Betting Recap & Reaction

42 min
Feb 11, 20264 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Chad Noeman and Simon Hunter recap their Super Bowl LX betting performance, analyzing their successful Seattle Seahawks picks across multiple spreads and props while discussing why the Patriots were overvalued. They interview contest winner Kingston Chen, who went 5-0 in the final week by focusing on prop bets rather than game outcomes.

Insights
  • Sharp money and public money diverged significantly on Super Bowl LX, with 57% of money on Seahawks but 56% of bets on Patriots, indicating sophisticated bettors recognized Seattle's dominance earlier
  • First quarter unders in Super Bowl have historically been highly profitable (18-7-2 since 2000), suggesting teams consistently come out flat regardless of preparation
  • Coaching philosophy matters more than talent in blowout scenarios—Seattle's aggressive play-calling prevented Drake May from making critical mistakes, while New England's conservative approach kept them in a losing position
  • Injury status significantly impacts quarterback performance in high-pressure games—Drake May's shoulder injury and Will Campbell's torn MCL directly affected Patriots' offensive execution
  • Prop betting and avoiding game-side picks can be more profitable than traditional spread betting, as demonstrated by Kingston Chen's 5-0 contest finish using only props
Trends
Strength of schedule analytics becoming more predictive—only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams faced harder schedules than Seahawks, and those teams went 8-3 in Super BowlsQuarterback turnover differential as primary game predictor—Drake May's 2 turnovers vs Sam Darnold's 0 directly correlated with 29-13 final marginPublic overconfidence in favorites with high win streaks—9 straight wins and 4 straight covers entering Super Bowl historically leads to blowouts, not close gamesCoaching staff intelligence increasingly valued in pregame analysis—Kyle Shanahan's pre-game prediction of potential blowout more accurate than traditional analyst consensusProp market inefficiencies in Super Bowl creating value—specific player performance props and defensive scoring opportunities underpriced relative to game outcome spreads
Topics
Super Bowl LX Betting AnalysisSeahawks vs Patriots Game RecapSpread Movement and Line ShoppingQuarterback Performance Under PressureInjury Impact on Game OutcomesProp Betting StrategySharp vs Public Money DivergenceFirst Quarter Under Betting TrendsCoaching Strategy in Blowout GamesContest Picking MethodologyTurnover Differential AnalysisStrength of Schedule Predictive ValueParlay Betting StrategyPlayer Prop UndervaluationPost-Season Momentum and Covering Trends
Companies
Hard Rock Bet
Presenting sponsor of the show; provided contest platform and prize structure for the season-long pick'em contest
iHeartPodcasts
Podcast network hosting the show; mentioned in opening and closing segments
Volume Podcast Network
Parent network for Sharper Square; hosts the show alongside iHeartPodcasts
People
Kyle Shanahan
NFL coach praised for pre-game prediction that Seahawks could blow out Patriots; demonstrated superior analytical ins...
Sam Darnold
Seahawks quarterback who threw zero turnovers in playoffs and Super Bowl, enabling Seattle's dominant game plan
Drake May
Patriots quarterback whose shoulder injury and poor performance (84 playoff pass rating vs 113 regular season) contri...
Will Campbell
Patriots offensive lineman who played with torn MCL, resulting in 14 pressures (NFL Super Bowl record)
Kenneth Walker
Seahawks running back whose long run was called back for holding penalty, costing bettors significant parlay winnings
Christian Gonzalez
Patriots cornerback who had strong defensive performance but couldn't prevent Seahawks' dominant offensive execution
Stefan Diggs
Patriots receiver whose fumble in red zone prevented potential scoring opportunity in fourth quarter
Tony Dungy
NFL analyst who appeared on Super Bowl pre-game show; picked Patriots over Seahawks
Fred Warner
NFL analyst who appeared on Super Bowl pre-game show; picked Patriots over Seahawks
Rodney Harrison
NFL analyst who appeared on Super Bowl pre-game show; picked Patriots over Seahawks
Colin Cowherd
Show host mentioned as having picked Patriots; expressed regret before game kickoff
Kingston Chen
Grand prize winner of Sharper Square contest; went 5-0 in final week using prop-focused strategy
Evan A
Analytics contributor who provided strength of schedule data showing Seahawks faced harder schedule than 11 of 120 Su...
Brandon Anderson
Guest analyst who predicted defensive special teams touchdown parlay that cashed in Super Bowl
Quotes
"I think Seattle could blow this team out"
Kyle ShanahanPre-game show
"These guys are about to get blown out. They're frauds."
Simon HunterSunday morning social media post
"You can tell right away with Sam's honor off and I'm really could tell you it was just off because all his throws were behind or leading nothing was on target"
Simon HunterGame analysis
"I loaded up on the sea hawks not all it three and a half or four and a half which was available I did three and a half I did four and a half I did six and a half I did nine and a half I did 13 and a half I did 16 and a half I did 21 and a half and 25 and a half"
Chad NoemanBetting strategy discussion
"A lot of the credit has to go to the sharpened square park cat I don't have my models I don't have a research trends so a lot of my insight and rationale behind those six come from you guys"
Kingston ChenContest winner interview
Full Transcript
This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by a hard rock bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. No matter what time of year it is, I am Chad Noeman. I'm joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my confedra, my co-host, professional letter Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how are we doing? Good. Wow. Wow. Wow. What an incredible Super Bowl. Truly incredible Super Bowl. People are complaining that it was boring, that didn't like it, whatever. For us, I think the second week in row between the second football week in a AFC title game that was a slog, but we were on the right side. And this game that was a slog, but we were on the right side. We've seen the most beautiful football. We've seen in decades. We couldn't nail it. Right? From the beginning, we loved Seattle. From the beginning, we loved Seattle. Alts. From the beginning, we loved props tied to the Seattle narrative of dominating and New England having to come back. Our guests have an Abrams and Brandon Anderson nailed it. Brandon Anderson had the defensive special team touchdown, Moneyline, Parley, that cached. We're going to go through all of it. All the categories were final picks. We have a contest winner, thousands and thousands of contestants signed up. We had one man standing who won it with a 5-0 record and the season. He's going to come on the show a little bit later. Before we get to all of it, Simon, I feel like you rarely go online and clap back. But you did on Sunday. Yeah, I'll never, I'll never, I never try to go up fans just because I get a rational emotional. But my God, we're the Patriots fans loud and open, anxious. And I will admit, we have Patriots fans that came to our live shows up at Hoboken. All class acts, very funny guys, great person eyes. I mean, Philadelphia, Boston, very smart. Come on. Yeah. People say, Salt of the Earth, I say scumbags of the earth. I mean, just incredibly similar in many ways. And usually, again, most teams, any normal people will have self doubt. These Patriots fans were so loud and so confident. Chirpy. I'm pretty chirpy. I, I, I'm media, usually I won't call my shot. It was a buildup of Saturday night when I'm out at the books and I have people coming up to me. Patriots fans running their mouths. And then waking up to messages that morning. Yeah, I got on social media and I just said, these guys are about to get blown out. They're frauds. And Chad knows people in media will never put themselves out on those type of, you know, sticks because it's a bad look when it goes the other way. If the Patriots want to blow them out by 20, what a bloke or an idiot. I knew there was no world, no world that would happen. That's why I was so confident putting that out there because it's in my mind, the Patriots had a chance and maybe covering in no world that I see them blow out the the sea. Like you said, the game couldn't have gone more to a tee of what we predicted. So obviously got very lucky on that and had a couple of drinks was feeling pretty good after winning a ton of money and yeah, hopped on social media through a video out there trolling these Patriots fans. And I meant every word I said of it. So I welcome the next morning rewatcher. I go, nope, not deleting it. No regrets. I mean, I meant every word I said of it. But yeah, really like you said, really fun, super bono. I'm excited to dive into it here. You know, we love that we love the sea hawks for the whole two weeks, right? Like I better to immediately at minus three and a half the second it opened. And it's funny, you know, our contest winner. We've got an interview with him later in the show. And then I'm not jumping on the side partially because. Well, I don't want to spoil it because I want people listen to the interview, but. I was a little I was a little bit concerned by Sunday morning when the line. Had an exploded to five five and a half. Even to six as I thought it should because. The sea hawks were just so much better. So I was a little anxious about it. And I was actually on the road for the game. I was doing some book reporting and I was with someone who's like a market maker. On the prediction exchanges for the game. And I was with this person during the game. And. We were watching the pre game show. And they had on. I think it was a cow Shanahan. I think it was a friend Warner and then Tony Dungee and Rodney Harrison. I think. Fred Warner and Rodney Harrison went with the Patriots and I forgot who Tony Dungee did. But cow Shanahan. Just dropped a little hint. I don't know if you saw this or not. I never watched the pre game shows and I can give a shit with the people picking and say. Cow Shanahan had a really interesting. He's like. I think Seattle. Could blow this team out. And then he was the only one who predicted this sea hawks by margin. It was 2417. And if I wanted anybody to sort of give me your rational happiness in that moment, it was cow Shanahan. Who you know I adore as a coach. And then it was fucking great. It was just. It was awesome. We're going to get into it. We're totally going to get into it. Don't forget. Let's see. We can you can get the shows. Little post super bowl of fog brain here. You can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. I don't like the video where I added also down on Spotify. Apapods. We get your pods. Here's some roundups. We finished the contest portion of the season with 24 points. So that was the final. I think it was nine weeks, including the playoffs. That was good enough Simon for three hundred and seventy fifth place. To put it in context. Nearly five thousand people signed up for the contest, which is miraculous. In and of itself. Since it was a late in the season edition to our program. So that three hundred and seventy five was basically good enough for. Top eight percent. I feel okay with that. Like we had a we had a tough run there in the playoffs. You know we we created in the conference final weekend and in the divisional round weekend. So I feel. I feel okay coming in where we did considering how bad things turned there for a minute. Yeah, basically did nothing. You just saw the record there basically was five hundred since the contest started. So yeah, dog ourselves into a pretty horrible hole and crawl it out and. Yeah, luckily. Two biggest bets of the playoffs happen to be in the conference championship and the Super Bowl. So yeah, got kind of lucky that it worked out that way. Our contest picks were Seattle minus four and a half cashed the under forty five and a half cash from Andre Stevenson under fifty three and a half rushing yards cashed Drake May over nineteen and a half. Complitions that cashed the one that lost we had the patch plus three and a half in the first half. So we finished four and one in the Super Bowl our total contest record for twenty twenty five from the beginning of the season five picks every week through the playoffs. Sixty and fifty fifty five percent basically you tell me as professional better you can go fifty five percent in the season you're taking that every time. Yeah, yeah, but I would say we're both disappointed that that the Tennessee Tennessee Titans dictated our season. Yeah, we were in a contest for a lot of money and I told Chad if we had just gone the other way and the Titans you'd both be sitting here with half a million dollars. So it's pretty sickening. We had a really good year, but that's a close to margins are if you just lock in on the wrong team and you can't get it right. You crush yourself and yeah, great year, but I am one of those people I don't remember my wins. I remember every loss and that's what's going to hurt me in this off season. I'm going to be sitting there. It's going to be an amazing second eleven o'clock in the night and I'm like the damn Tennessee Titans. I thought I'm funny. It's funny you mentioned that because we're going to we're going to get into that and by every account, I should have been freaking thrilled with the Super Bowl. But all that's in my head is the two things that kept it from being monster monster Sunday. Our name that's Chad choice was Seattle Alt Line minus six and a half that one Simon says was the first quarter under eight and a half barely a sweat. There was like a second where it could have been a sweat when when the Patriots played at their bass and then it went exactly our way. And I come up with a ask about that why I blindly bet that every year and shout out to our guy Evan A. Send me the numbers since two that the year 2000 in the Super Bowl first quarter under is now eighteen seven and two. So like I said, every year people you can bedside you can do all this hard work. And I said that Tuesday show put all your mind into this bet every year because every year it's a winner. These you saw right the teams come out flat. It doesn't matter. I mean my favorite stat ever Tom Brady the goat. What was he played in 11 Super bowls is three total points in the first quarter and those 11 Super bowls. So that's a little point Daniels. Yeah, that's actually is a Joshua Daniel step. Just to remember in the future people eighteen seven and two first quarter under is in the Super Bowl since the year 2000. So it's a great better year. Brass balls was New England's first drive being a punt. So we cashed on all these. You just mentioned Evan. I want to call out to particularly the prescient clips from when Evan came on the show two weeks ago. Obviously everywhere you look you hear Patriots drank the schedule. I think Seahawks drank the schedule is also just as important in this game. Only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams had a harder strength to schedule than the Seahawks. Those 11 teams went eight and three in the Super Bowl. So I also kind of believe that's that that's a good stuff. Love that. If you look at the single postseason I believe Darnell has the fourth highest pass rating of any quarter back all time. You look on the other side Drake May 113 pass rating during the regular season down to 84 on the playoffs. I don't really care why that's happened, but I also think that's baked into why the line maybe isn't three. And it's even four and a half and five and getting juiced up at the moment. They've won nine straight. They've covered four straight. Only four other teams have even done that nine straight and four straight nine straight wins four straight covers entering a Super Bowl. 2016 17 Patriots barely survivors the Falcons but won the game and covered 2000 Ravens blew out the Giants 1986 Giants blew out the Broncos. 71 Cowboys blew out the Dolphins. So those teams nine straight wins four straight covers. Four no straight up four no against a spread in the Super Bowl. If you think Seattle's dominant, that's the stat you want to hear like they're just going to roll away with this one. That's basically what happened, right? I mean, it was just glorious. So nice job, Evan. Nice job, Brandon. Nice job Simon. Nice John. Nice job Chad. One online hater accused you of wearing you to pay last week. Because of all of our collective flaws. I feel like what you do have is an incredible nest of hair. So congrats on your new to pay that you were able to afford after winning so much money on the Seattle Seahawks. Yeah, definitely watch that clip. It just I immediately missed that warmth of that hair. I'm not going to lie, Chad. My ears are so cold. But yeah, I, Chad knows I'm crazy superstitious. So if I win my biggest bet of the year on the Broncos, there's no chance I'm cutting my hair before this you. I got to let it ride. But yes, as soon as I woke up Monday morning, I went and got the haircut. That the hair was there was too much. They got it gotten too wild. But yeah, I this this game. There's so many avenues to go. I did see the cow shane and clip you saw just because I think cow heard. Put a video out talking about because I think Colin took the Patriots. And he basically would just say how much regret he had before the game had kicked off because when you hear a guy like Kyle say that. A coach will never say a team has a potential to get blown out right there in the lead. That's what that's what sort of. That's what shocked me like you never hear a coach use the term blow up. That was really, really, I mean these pregame shows are fluff right we talk about all the time. You know where the show the pregame show with the stuff not the fluff. That was the most interesting thing I've heard in a pregame show in decades. And it's funny because I told Chad I've been complaining Chad about how the college football. For the national championship game they had on. Nick Saban the head coach of Notre Dame like they had on some really brilliant minds and we've been lacking that in my opinion on football right like. And not to hate on these talk shows you're you're putting on these dudes are in their 70s. We haven't played that a fell in 40 years and they're nonsensical. They they'd let it give you nothing to gain from a guy like Kyle or Sean McVeigh. Any time you hear them speak you need to listen like they are the smartest minds in this sport and. Yeah Kyle had a great line as well that he had who is he to say anything about the Celks he hasn't scored a touchdown on them in the last two times they played. Which I love that line where it's like he can be that humble where he knows he's one of the best minds of all football he couldn't he can't score on them right now like he is in full tilt mode so. Yeah going into this game again I thought the CX had a chance to the to blow them out. I really did base it on I thought may would struggle to me we got lucky or because Sam Darnold also struggled like those. Every single time he dropped back when it was still close you know in the first half let's say. Especially those first drives because the way the the Patriots were playing defense they were jumping every route. I just thought oh my god this is going to be a recipe for some kind of pick six for the first score that's what it looked like to me I don't know like you saw it the same way but it was scary. To me you can tell right away with Sam's honor off and I'm really could tell you it was just off because all his throws were behind or leading nothing was on target the entire game in my like the entire game he didn't have any perfect drink may who. Play terrible he had the best throws of the game no doubt like that's what I'm going to back college for the touchdown. I told you going in this game I knew both had coaches mentality's were the quarterback that's going to dictate who's going to win this game because one of them is going to slip up and make a mistake and a thrown over. Sam never was really put in the position for that right they had a couple at the very beginning Kubiak let him kind of sling it eventually they just turned right to the run right and even when they got down the red zone. There was a couple times where they need like a 1370 pick up or first down Sam was taking the third and four throw like he was taking the check down to get a fourth the beyond a fourth and three or fourth and two because they were going to settle for the three just never put the ball and turn over and no Christian Gonzalez did have a chance to pick in the end zone right before half. That should have been a walking touchdown Jay send and beat him easy on the route the ball was terribly late behind was almost a pick so it's like. Sam on his worst game still through for two yards no turnovers on the flip side Drake may show his inexperience what we talked about coming in this that's what I could beat in home was like I get a better the whole point was I can't be your bet on Sam don't know is a four point favor in the Super Bowl and my whole view was it I can't believe you're taking Drake may under seven point dog. I can't look against the number one defense you've seen him struggle now three straight weeks against defenses this is the going to be the best defense he's faced and it proved I mean the way people are talking about the sea walks now is ridiculous like that's getting ready for the 85 bears a little. They're not even it last year's Eagles team I honestly think was more impressive because they did against my homes and that chiefs like this Drake may he looked totally out of it from the get go like not. Like happy feet bath rose late throws we talked about that shoulder injury I knew as soon as the game ended something would come out that he was shot up I knew right away was he missed that we could practice it's like they're going to baby and try to keep it cool he's obviously got a big injury and they saw you know Wil Campbell who's been dragged through the mud you know 14 pressures NFL record in the Super Bowl. Basically playing on apparently a torn a sailor MC like he's going to get served yourself like that with his knee I don't know the exact interview but you knew this guy who's whole draft and coming out was yes short arms but he is so strong he's impossible to push through every play that you just get bored of you could not put any weight on that one leg so between the may injury. The Campbell injury like everything about that I just I think we're both in sync of we just couldn't find a reason to back to the pictures for me and Chad we want about the dogs we talk of the time that should always be alarms to people were so heavy into a favorite when we're such heavy dog better especially that trend we gave out right it was like 10 and 1 last. 11 Super Bowl's where the spread was above 4 and a half yep and not that we thought it was due to go away but it was just like well this is I talked about I think I go on the other way the dog had gone too much. Valley that we're getting to three points on the favor that's why me and Chad both took the the sea ox team minus six and a half right that's where the value to us was where this line just felt way off and you know when Sunday morning came I really did load up on the sea up because I just kept and the more I thought about a look into it it's like this is such a bad match up this game but I'm not going to lie I really did think there was a chance there for them to come back because of all those fuel goals like it was never more than a two point score game right and you saw Drake may the arm talent he can strike fast but you know we talk of the time the game changer the thing that decides these games the quarterbacks are their turnovers and Drake may to pick one fumble you know it's just they're in a possible snare in the day I don't about you but I am one of the people that I do blame variable in Josh Mcdonalds I think they totally got out coached scheme wise they failed and I hated how the variable was playing this game where he was playing to keep it close rather than try to win like I get you're not going for the fourth and one in your own 39 because it's a nine nothing game or 12 nothing game but that that 12 nothing I don't know but you watch it home if fell like that was 40 to nothing it's like you can get a feel go let it go to touch on so I really do question-rable the most coming at that game where I hated the way you coached it you just he played to to to soft and kept thinking Sam Donalds will make the mistake I'm going to be able to get back in this game where I just thought the other way the sea alchver never never let Sam don't make that mistake and you know that's where he messed up well that was the flip side of why we love Seattle so much we truly believed that what we had seen over the previous three or four weeks in the way Seattle was calling the games they really weren't going to let him be in a position to screw it up they had to win big against the Rams but they had really started to figure out how to get Sam Donald to not be making mistakes I agree with you quarterback started to go your first quarterback and then for history zero turnovers through the playoffs he was amazing yeah great was totally amazing he tried to make the right of the season zero in the playoffs he tried he tried to make some turnovers in the school he really he's a real gunslinger it's like please stop saying that college Christian Gonzalez was out of his head that game I mean yeah he was like Lester Hayes just knocking the last ball go there then a walker he was he was unreal the the and that was one play I think it was towards the end of the first half where the sea hunks could have gone up 12 nothing with a field goal and to your point 12 might as well have been 40 in this game and they did let Sam Donald try to show throw like a short out that if he was a little bit behind on that throw that's a pick six and so kubiak did let him stretch a little bit for the most part it was you know give it the kind of walker because they had found some kind of success where they were able to run against this pitch it's defense he was he was amazing in this game like you I loaded up on the sea hawks but but I loaded up on the sea hawks not all it three and a half or four and a half which was available I did three and a half I did four and a half I did six and a half I did nine and a half I did 13 and a half I did 16 and a half I did 21 and a half and 25 and a half so like my line of demarcation for break even on all of those bets was I think 10 if they one by 10 I was at least making money on those bets and then it escalated from there they ended up winning 29 13 I think it was 16 so I ended up getting the 13 and a half as well and to your point about like what you remember you know they were up 29 seven they were up 22 points it ends like that if the Patriots don't get that garbage touchdown I'm having maybe the best week and I've ever had is a better in my entire life because well just because like everything was compounding right and by the time it got to like Seattle minus 21 and a half or something I think it was like plus 600 right and so like the the biggest one was Seattle minus 25 and a half plus 1200 which I wasn't going to get but then after they have that touchdown Kenneth Walker breaks it for a long run there up 36 13 and it gets called back for holding penalty and it crushed me because now all of a sudden like what could have been a miraculous amazing glorious never had a day like this in my life I took a side I went all in on that side I used all of our lessons and some guy held someone and it just cost me that extra you know the final two legs of that ladder which was rough I'm not going to lie makes you feel better that was like a 6k not 6k 6 figure swing for me because I had a ton of parlay's tied to the under and yeah the I basically I'm pretty sure I give on the show Mac columns anytime touchdown hit which was really lucky and obviously Seattle defense I always parlay the defenses that I bet on the teams and yeah that was a nice pair as well so yeah for me you know between Denver and the Super Bowl close to a 7 figure into the season in between my clients in my group a nice 10 I mean 8 figure I should say end of the season and going to get a really nice bonus hopefully see what that will be I need goals at all time high so I'm probably not going to get any gold yeah having fun trying to throughout what I'm going to get paid out and just because you know these these are long seasons few form between great seasons and yet end that way in the last two games off season great feeling and especially a game like this where you know confidence can always leak especially if two weeks lead up to a game and yeah neither of us really wavered honestly like even talking about the sharp calls and how I was shocked here some of professionals the most shocking thing was to watch from that show which was Thursday the Friday to Saturday Sunday how the money came flowing in on the Patriots and basically about kickoff I think it was like 56 50% it's 57% of the bets and money were on the Seahawks and I was 43% was on the Patriots which blew my mind that that many people late came in on the Patriots and were feeling so confident about them and yeah the you were you said you were worried about how the line had a budge I was the other way where it's like a couple books had gone to five here in Jersey and I immediately was just like okay money's pouring in here on this Patriots team and I still know other groups like me taking positions on the Seahawks team and now the numbers moved against it as we moved up as well this is like a alarm bus I told you the books were stuck they could not go to six and a half in my opinion on the sea up they would have shown their ass they would have shown this is potential to be a blowout if they would have moved it and yeah the books are going to say they didn't do great I think that's a lot to do the predictive markets and then being dinosaurs and being slow to adjust to the new current market but overall you know that was a great I'm assuming a great super bowl for the books because you didn't get the you know you didn't you didn't get all the big touchdown guys like Jason didn't score I know Walker heard him obviously but and the total went under and he had a blowout so yeah it's like we always say the public does win and they got smoked the regular season they got their revenge for sure here in the playoffs and especially on this game but this was definitely we talked about it was the it was a very public side we knew that going in and yeah props to us we didn't let it bang us off chat we stayed stayed to it and my god we ripped the rewards from it we totally stayed focused good for us hope everyone listened let's hear from our friends at a hard rock bets today show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor hard rock bet Florida's sports book I know it's tough with no football but like the song says I bet I will survive with hard rock that there's always something to bet on every night hoops hockey and so much more plus all the great same game parley live betting and player prop options you're used to if you haven't signed up with hard rock bet yet there's never been a better time new signups can double their winnings on the first ten bets max fifty dollars that's right if you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet make that too much the hard rock bet sports book app is the only legal sports book for whenever you're in Florida and it's also live in Arizona Ohio New Jersey Indiana Tennessee Virginia Illinois Colorado and Michigan coming soon to more states to plus hard rock bet offers new promos daily so whenever you're listening just open the app and check out what you've got any day that we download the hard rock bet app and make it first to pass it offered by the seminal travel Florida in Florida offered by seminal hard rock digital LLC and all other states must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona Colorado Florida Illinois Indiana Michigan New Jersey Ohio Tennessee or Virginia to play terms and conditions applied concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three playwise in Indiana if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants how come one eight hundred nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler Arizona Colorado Illinois Michigan New Jersey Ohio Tennessee and Virginia all right producer Matt Mitchell he's going to join us right now because he has while we are giving ourselves so many bouquets of flowers for our brilliant super bowl analysis and the courage to go with a dominant team at multiple levels Matt Mitchell has a super bowl bad beat to bring us back down to earth Chad I had a great super bowl it was absolutely my most profitable game of the entire NFL season which is not common use the super bowl is not the the payload that I that I wanted to be it's always a mixed bag right it was great I got everything I needed right except for the two lottery tickets that I scratched which are so stupid and so easy to understand because I don't usually love bad beat stories I love turning the super bowl into a game of roulette by picking exact outcomes so I took Seattle to win by exactly 12 very uncommon and they both paid one hundred to one I bet on both of them and I got to experience the absolute torture chamber of seeing not one of them but both of those differentials in the fourth quarter of a super bowl blowout in which basically after each after each one was established no team had a real either possibility or incentive to score first at nineteen seven and I thought boy this could really be the let that's could be it and then I'm like okay the last the all the other bets I needed I go what really be great is a Seattle defensive touchdown regular extra point and then I'll get to twenty two it'll be twenty nine seven and the next play I got exactly that nobody caught him I felt like mine soul left my body and I was watching myself watch that play from above I give a lot I give a ever I've been on six Olympic women's hockey games already I give a lot that experience of being like I feel like I'm being lifted above towards heaven and then the God damned patriots are like oh now we're pulling out all the stops and I do I want to call out Drake may who's God damn shoulder certainly didn't hurt with four minutes to go in the fucking Super Bowl and brought former Buffalo Bill Stefan Diggs who had a much worse night than I did holding on to a ball in the red zone after getting rocked and spitting the ball as if only to me to set up the touchdown so to Drake may and to Stefan Diggs for helping to ruin a one hundred to one twenty nine seven perfect final score I want to send to you this message I would like to rear up and jack knife my legs and kick you both in the fucking jaw with my football I wish my foot would go right through your skull do drink before you came here no when I'm gonna start drinking and then I'm gonna come back and light you on fire we remember the bad beats we just do it was a glorious game I'm glad we got to watch it we want to bring on right now we wanted you actually one quick word from our friends at Zbiotics and then we've got an interview with our contest winner Matt the football season is over no more getting up early on Sunday mornings to record a show looking forward to free and easy Saturday nights enjoying some cocktails with our friends and family despite our incredible grit and cool we don't bounce back like we used to and you've got kids to deal with every morning that used to me choosing between a great night or a great next day but that was before we tried pre alcohol Zbiotics pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking here's how it works when you drink alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut to build up of this byproduct not dehydration that's sublime for rough rough days after drinking pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow map you've got a special occasion coming up this week tell us about how you're going to manage this well Chad as you know at the end of this week I turn 41 and so I'll be going to a fancy restaurant enjoying cocktails with more than two ingredients all the fanciest things and I'm definitely going to make pre alcohol part of my routine you just open up the fancy little mocks comes in these little airplane bottles I just knock one back about now before I start and the next morning which is Valentine's day for me a lot of obligations there I feel great I'm able to do all the things I want to do I've got loads of energy it's going to be great and I know it's just a few weeks before your what I assume is you know 65th 75th birthday at the end of the smoke too so I would highly recommend it yeah I'm in training as we speak listen I'm excited you're going to be do that enjoy the best night to the football season without sacrificing a great morning start your night with Z by addicts pre alcohol wake up clear headed focused and better than ever go to Z by addicts.com slash sharp sharper square now you'll get 15% off your first order when you use sharper square check out plus it's backed by 100% money back guarantee so there's no risk subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency that's Z by addicts.com slash sharper square and use the coach sharper square I check out for 15% off as promised a very special treat we're being joined by the grand prize winner of the sharper square pro football pick them contest presented by our friends at hard rock bat who are so appreciative of by the way that they were willing to organize this contest and put together the pricing very late in the season because we know long time listeners of the show have enjoyed doing it and that includes our winner Kingston Chen from the great state of New Jersey the Bayon brother I love New Jersey Kingston how you doing buddy I'm doing great thank you guys for the interview I'm so glad you did the contest I'm so glad you are the grand prize winner you went five and no in the last week the contest tell us how you did it a lot of the credit has to go to the sharpened square park cat I don't have my models I don't have a research trends so a lot of my insight and rationale behind those six come from you guys damn straight what what did you end up doing for your final five if I remember I think I picked the cold rose under I did the first half under I also have a lot of throwing for under one point five touchdowns JSN having no receiving touchdowns and remandred seasons and under for the rushing hard wow so you didn't even do one of the sides in my heart I felt that piano was better team and I obviously felt they were going to blow out the Patriots but then the absolute of the Super Bowl you guys were talking about how a lot of the sharp were on the Patriots so that gave me some doubt and ultimately I just decided it was just a void who was going to cover or who was going to win the game all together Simon you talked him out of the easiest better the day we did take a sharp side taking the under right so at least he did follow some of the sharp with the stick and the other and he didn't follow the sharp spot taking the Patriots so I feel like he did well he picked his spots it's what's all about right chat picking your spots you pick your spots he all in all he made some very sharp choices right like you and I had debated the Jackson Smith and Jigba under half a touchdown so basically no touchdowns we had talked about the Sam Darnal like the under those with the sharp sides we were with them on the under the Robinson under his total rushing yards to here's what's interesting to be Simon I'd like Kingston to explain himself here you say you don't do models you don't do a ton of research you mainly just listen to me and Simon throughout the year and that's how you come up with your five picks and congratulations again on winning how is it that you're cleaning from whatever we're saying better is telling information then Simon and I are getting from whatever we're saying I mean it comes on to look right I went five and oh but easily could have just went through or two or two and three you know the game could have easily went over on the total just that 10 of the touchdowns wasn't called back to the flag his Sam Darnal didn't miss the JSN on that throw where I think you got a step on Gonzalez as easily as I won the contest I could have just also easily lost just thank you to Hard Rock's deck for sponsoring this contest and it was super fun even if I didn't win I still think it was really really fun and I hope moving forward that day would do more content like this. As long as we have a show there's going to be a contest I'm holding our sponsor to and I think they saw how great it was they saw how many people signed up literally many many thousands that's what's interesting here Kingston look at us Simon Sharper Square just bring enjoy and happiness to Kingston Chains live Kingston congratulations on finishing number one in the year. Sharper Square profile pick them contest great job finishing five in one year great job on listening to me and Simon and figuring up what we were saying better than Simon and I actually figured out thanks for playing brother. Thank you so much I just want to thank you guys like I said I've been following the podcast for like two years and every new episode I always learned something new wish you guys continue success moving forward. You're welcome back on the show anytime you're much nicer than those people thank you brother. Thank you thank you all right thank you Kingston Chen brilliant brilliant season congrats to you I hope you enjoy the free trip to Hard Rock in Florida I was just there amazing property for those wondering about the upcoming schedule especially those new to the show we got a lot of new listeners we still have new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday it's a lot of NFL talk a lot of NFL off season for the agency draft futures we do do other sports we're going to have special guests it'll be great stick around is still going to be me and Simon talking about all the fun things that we like to talk about related to the world this has been sharper square part of the volume podcast network we do want to thank everybody from a wild beginning where we went from deciding we were joining the volume podcast network to launching a new show in a span of about 96 hours before the opening week of the NFL season to now what is it six months later we're through a Super Bowl thanks to everybody who found us who stuck with us who joined us who came along for the ride it was a glorious glorious season we hope to stick around for the rest of the off season we talk about all these things that I just talked about a lot of NFL futures talk we will be back on Thursday morning with a special NFL off season mail bag episode watch or listen on YouTube a sharper square like this video subscribe to the channel down on some Spotify app pause where we get your pause rate review subscribe we was five stars say whatever you want feedback as a gift until next time love you the ones a bad call and I was upset at that back call there like so your back call your back call Trump that back what the hell is the problem this is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human