This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire. That's ultimately their choice. We think that would be dumb, but that's their choice. The dizzying situation in the Gulf of the Strait, so her moves, the U.S. Iran, Israel, Lebanon and all the players. Let's dive right into it with military analyst, Mike Lyons. Mike, welcome. How are you today? It's great to be back with you. Great. Always good to have you. So, you know, I think both of us have probably read about, studied various peace agreements through history and how some of them were a bit rocky or, you know, there were hidden elements that the layman didn't learn about until many years later. But I don't recall anything as wobbly and complicated as this in recent memory. Yeah, I don't never seen sides so far apart. I mean, I guess the 15 points on our side versus the 10 on their side, they are the most maximalist demands you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country. Basically saying that they could do whatever they want, whenever they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they want to another country, whenever they want to do it to them too. So I don't know where this will start. You know, Trump, I think, had originally the beginning of the week with a lot of his tweets and comments where he's just kind of out crazy, the crazy people on some level talking to the Iranians in language they understand. I'm just not sure they understand any language. I'm just not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just don't have a history of negotiating anything, giving in on anything on whatsoever. I think the Obama administration was completely taken to the woodshed by these guys. And they're going to try. We'll see what happens. So is that line of thought leading to the conclusion that the only thing we can do is so reduce their capabilities that the intransigent maniacs that run Iran just won't be as dangerous? Yeah, I think that's really where we're at. We're back to a containment foreign policy. If we can't get some kind of resolution within the next 14 days, I don't think it's going to take 14 days. I think we're going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to give in on anything before that. The vice president's comment about this being linked to Asilat is exactly the point. I mean, Israel has its own security concerns. And the fact that the country with 9 million people still punching up against the country with 90 million and doing doing pretty well. There's a lot of other potential solutions there. The French could get involved with Lebanon and help the Lebanese government to saw him Hezbollah that's there. I mean, think about Hezbollah as kind of like a cancer or kind of that infected us country for so many years. And the civilians and the government does nothing about it. Well, the French, which was what their influence was there, if they'd like to get in the game, they could possibly help the Lebanese government do that. Hezbollah has never been any weaker. But they don't have the military. They don't really choose to do anything. They just continue to send British signaling statements, some from Paris and hope the United States continues to get the job done. Yeah, I saw the quote from Norman Schwartzkopf recently that I love, that going into battle without the French is like going hunting without an accordion. Which I thought was... Yeah. You know, he... Yeah, you know, again, these countries, their perception of their strength and reality versus the actual reality of it, Realpolitik is just, you know, again, the Grand Canyon. It's as wide as this U.N.-Iran debate right now. And so the UK is the same way. I mean, there's going to be real consequences over their actions within the NATO Alliance. You know, the NATO Alliance is not going away. I think it's going to be strong to have. But their, again, their perception of their reality and their actual strength remains to be seen. Look, the French have nuclear weapons, though. That's the other thing to this. I mean, so they can decide to maybe back off and then control Spain. But the Germans don't. The Germans, we don't want them to have nuclear weapons. We don't, you know, there's other issues about that nuclear non-piliparation that we want to keep. And that's one of the things that ties NATO together. Yeah, I was going to feature a little bit later on in the show, an absolutely terrific piece of writing I came across by a woman who's an author and commentator and thinker on this sort of issue. And the piece is entitled Why the West Won't Call This a Holy War. And I'm thinking about Hezbollah in Lebanon, which if people aren't familiar, it's a heavily armed political party that's also an army. If you can picture the insanity of that. Israel, quote unquote, coming to an agreement and a peace agreement with Hezbollah at this point, that's just that's fantasy land, isn't it? Especially from the Israeli perspective. Exactly. This is not, you know, the IRA that years ago decided to put its arms down and become part of the political process, joined the current government there and had a representative and the like. But this is not this is this is a fight for survival on their side. This is die to the death. This is there. This is how they operate. And it's similar to what happened in the Second World War in terms of how badly those countries at the time. Look, Japan, Japan had a tremendous tactical victory in December 7th. But look where that ended up leading to it ended up being to the fundamental demise of their country back back then. And and I think that's the same historical analogy taking place right now. The Arab nation or the terrorist organization has Bala Hamas and Iran has this great tactical victory on October 7th. A few years back, but it's going to lead to their downfall for sure. I certainly hope it does. More on that to come. We're talking to military analysts and Mike Lyons. So, Mike, let's get down to brass tacks. Is there any opening the straights of our moves without the consent of whoever is running Iran? Doesn't look like it. It looks like the IRGC still controls it and because the threat is still coming from a military perspective. It's those coastline batteries that they could potentially fire on a container vessel or a ship that's going there. And ballistic missiles. There's still mines there that we could we could use the help of the British and other NATO countries that have some capability with some of their minesweeping and then also some of the asymmetrical fastboating that takes place. And so no insurance company still going to get involved right now. So I think I think the next military mission is going to be looking for the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers and protect, protect the the container ships going through there. You're going to see possibly a stepped up escort mission. I know the Navy has been hesitant to do that from my sources, but but I think that's what the president is going to ask the Navy soon to do. Wow. Interesting. OK, let's change topics completely. Another really interesting piece of journalism I came across was a gal whose name I don't recall, but she was embedded with the NATO troops as they were doing drone training in Estonia. I think it was last week. And that's obviously a fascinating topic. And it was David Petraeus was over there or at least commenting on it. And he said, look, you need to understand this is changing the face of warfare completely. How do you think we're doing on that learning curve? The United States and our allies? Well, we're hanging on to it. We're watching closely and we try to import some of that technology into what we're doing. I mean, you saw, for example, the fact that we're locating this pilot using some heart murmur technology that can pick him out, you know, 40 miles away based on AI. So so is that right? I hadn't heard that. Yeah. Tell us more about that. Yeah. So I mean, again, what these kind of conflicts, all this technology comes off the shelf and this this technology was able to find him, help locate him using AI by his heart rate, by his heart murmur. And so yeah, I mean, so again, this and so now bring that bring that same mentality. Look, Ukraine gets up every day and figures out how it's going to survive. So they have to figure out how to close the kill chain, right? This this this time and distance between when they know there's a target and when they kill the target. And what they've done is just phenomenal. Well, their industrial military complex in terms of building the drone technology, the software, the implement in it. And then once it faces off to the enemy and they see the reaction to it, changing the software so it becomes more survivable, Ukraine has been incredible in terms of that kill chain from a military's perspective and helping them survive. And it's definitely the future of warfare. And you would know this a lot better than I would. I told the procurement process has in the past been, well, it can make a person insane. Whereas now, you know, it's got to be if I need a certain drill bit, I run to the store. I've got that drill bit in 20 minutes. Now, that's not practical. But what about that topic and how we need to change our procurement? Give you a shameless self promotion. A couple of months ago, I wrote an article for Rear Clear Defense on the new systems, the new playbook in order to succeed in doing that. If you're a startup innovative company, because Pete Hexett has changed that. He's changed the entire process of how you can bring this lethality to the war fighters. And it's all about taking things commercially off the shelf and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters. Innovation centers like Softworks in Tampa, Florida, working with special operators and again, shrinking that this distance in time between when they need something and then when it actually shows up on the battlefield. So I urge your listeners to go take a look at that article if they're doing an innovative startup company and help them to get to do government work. Because that's what this is all about. They're trying to break that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the Valley of Death. When you have a good idea and it dies in between what you get funding for it. Trump administration is trying to do that. And I think that's a really good move. Yeah, interestingly enough, my brother is in that very line of work. Mike, send us a link to that article. Why don't we post it so everybody can flock to it and read it? Sure, we'll do that. Sure, we'll do that. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, OK, military analyst, Mike Lyons. Mike, as always, we appreciate the thoughts and the wisdom. Great to talk to you and have a good weekend. Thanks to you too. Have a great one. All right. Thanks. Thanks. Yeah, where this goes, nobody knows. It is maybe I'll lack imagination, but I'm using my feeble brainpower such as it is to try to figure out how we get from this side is on is saying these things and demanding these things. And this side is, you know, got its own set of demands and they are utterly incompatible. The Iranian regime is completely intransigent. They're either religious fanatics or dead enders because they will be as Jack likes to put it hung upside down in the town square. As the end of their days, if they don't hold on to power, there's no there's going to be no saying, hey, I said some harsh things. You said some harsh things. I tortured dissidents. You know, we all make mistakes. You can have power now. No, these people are going to be killed. So they are dead enders.
