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And for once, I have to be the more optimistic person, talking about how maybe the winds are at the back of liberal democracy in this moment. We need to be vigilant. We need to work hard and continue to push Trump's approval down, down, down. But there are positive signs out there, the positive things we can take from Hungary. And so you can see a little bit of that. That case and that exchange. But since I've been off the show, two other things have popped up there that kind of echo what we were talking about. The first is JD Vance's Turning Point USA event at the University of Georgia. That was happening this evening, Tuesday evening. He was set to be in discussion with Erica Kirk, behave commenters. But Erica Kirk chose not to attend out of security concerns, said that she had received some threats. And so Andrew Colbet ended up interviewing JD and then he took some questions from the students there at Georgia. But the interesting part of this conversation wasn't really the answers or the questions. It was the attendance. The JD Vance went to a purplish red state, but in the South, an SEC school to do a Turning Point USA event with Erica Kirk. And it's three quarters empty. Three quarters empty. It was desolate in there. You could hear a pin drop literally. He could hear people echoing him. Let's just take a look here. Let's pull this up. Wow. I mean, more people showed up for the UGA versus Furman volleyball match than this inside their arena there on campus. That is depressing. That is a no show. You get to that event, you look around and you say to one of your friends, like, we should get out of here. This is gonna be awkward. And that's not nothing, you know? Crowd sizes isn't everything. Certainly the fact that Donald Trump was able to attract huge crowds meant more than some of the experts thought back in 2016 and going forward. It demonstrates, if nothing else, an excited base of supporters who are excited to see ya. And enthusiastic about your message or campaign or their membership in your cult. And if JD Vance can't even get a college basketball arena in the South to be half full, that I think tells you a lot about where the base is right now. And the polls have not gone down as much as we would like, but the juice is gone right now for the Trump Vance administration. Their biggest supporters are either unhappy about Trump comparing himself to Jesus or covering up the Epstein files, or most likely getting into a stupid war of choice in the Middle East that is causing costs to go up for them. Trump and Vance have betrayed them and people aren't showing up. People aren't showing up. There's maybe other parts related to the TPUSA and can't as someone's attacks on them and the infighting. It's just not as fun anymore. It's not the place to go to a little get in the lobby and meet a young man or a young lady and do a little, you know what? It's just, it's dead. The vibes are bad. The vibes shift against these guys even within their own base is real. And boy, if I was JD Vance, after failing in Islamabad and failing in Budapest, and feeling you could come home to at least your home team here, and go hang out with TPUSA in an SEC school and have nobody show up, have people being like, yeah, you know, the vice presidents here, but I gotta wash my hair and there's a new secret lies of Mormons on I don't know, ZGA baseball team playing. I wanna watch that instead. It's not a great sign. The other story I wanted to mention was one of the other panelists I've come in late in the show, I should have mentioned earlier, Mara Gay, brought up that one thing that concerns her, which is legit, totally legit is that Trump is an acting like somebody who cares about his political standing, which maybe means he doesn't plan on conducting elections. I'm putting words in her mouth, that would be the worry that Trump's total just self-destruction on the politics of this just might be a sign that he's out of out of electoral politics business. Now it could also mean that he's not up for election anymore and he has other things in his mind, legacy, going to heaven, LOL, et cetera. But there is another data point that supports what Mara's talking about here. And that is this, the Justice Department has moved to toss the seditious conspiracy convictions of the oath keepers and the proud boys. This goes beyond the commutations that Donald Trump did of all 1500 January 6 insurrectionists, including the violent ones. Now this is gonna erase convictions even for people that didn't receive pardons, such as oath keepers founder Stuart Rhoads. So again, and this is the type of thing you would do if you're not worried about being popular and you wanna make sure you have your muscle out there. I offer on the show a less alarming analysis of the same kind of assessment of Trump's behavior. So stick around for that. Subscribe to the feed. We're trying to get up to two million subscribers. We're getting closer. So come on, do it, subscribe, tell your friends and stick around for me on deadline White House. The corruption that reaches into CPAC in Miller from the Hungarian government is a stunning new reveal. It is stunning. And I just wanna say this, I love being on with Mark for two reasons. Number one, because he's doing the work and because I get to be the optimist for once because I am feeling good vibes today. And it's only when Mark is on that I get to be the optimist on the panel. So I'm gonna do it. The vibes are really good. In part because of, you know, it's just an unbelievably impressive victory by Peter Mayer, what he overcame. And a lot of stuff that we are talking about here in America that Trump is doing, like Orban had already done it. The new prime minister had never done an interview in national media because Orban had taken over the media completely. So I'm obviously even warning and talking about what's happening with the paramount merger and TikTok and maybe CNN next and et cetera. But like it happened already and hungry. He had to go to towns to campaign. He had to rely on independent media and you know, which there are a brave independent journalist and hungry that were still working and the internet. Luckily, you know, they hadn't got all the way in North Korea, but like they had Orban had taken over the media, Orban had tried to rig the elections. In fact, the manner in which he tried to rig the elections backfired so spectacularly that Mayer now has even more members in the parliament than he would have under the old system. Because it's kind of, it's essentially, it's a pretty decent parallel to what Trump tried to do with Jerry Mandarin, rigging, making the midterms and how that had backfired on him. Thanks to Gavin Newsom and others and hopefully the voters come November. So he overcame all of this, which is a massive victory. And I think that the vibes are shifting everybody who's in the pro-liberal democracy movement should feel like they've the winded our sails a little bit because of it. And then I love that comment that he gave that speech. If he gets in there, we have a lot of conversations about this, like what happens in the future? Let's say we defeat Trumpism, then what? And, and you know, I think one of the criticisms looking back in the Biden administration is a lot. There's a lot of effort to just, hey, move forward. Let's unite the country. I understood that impulse, but you know, the accountability part of it came later. There he was on day one in the press conference saying, well, no, we need to investigate them. This is corrupt, what they were doing. And we need to go after them now. And so I think that's really encouraging. And that's a model for what this could look like. And then as you mentioned, the fact that the CPAC thing is so comically corrupt and just crazy. I mean, this idea that Orban was running on this family values nationalist camp, you know, platform and he's funding an American political conference. One run by a guy with some credible accusations of sexual assault against him outside of his family. And like that guy's coming to Hungary and getting a payoff from the Hungarian taxpayer in the name of nationalism and traditional values. And it's comical. And I'm hoping that another benefit of all this is we who the heck knows who else they were paying and that some of the funds for some of the MAGA groups like CPAC that were coming from foreign governments might start to dry up now. So good news across the board. Bore takes a sponsor by DeleteMe. DeleteMe makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. This is something people with public profile should think about, including me. But everyone should be safeguarding their personal information because it's kind of weird for people to just be able to Google your address. Very weird. 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The only way to get 20% off is go to joindeleteme.com slash takes and enter code takes at the checkout. That's joindeleteme.com slash takes, code takes. So if you were in charge of NATO, if you were, say, Joe Biden, what would your next move be in the war in Ukraine? What would you do? Peace immediately, call back Trump. That's the only way out. Call back Trump, call back Trump. Because you know, you can criticize him for many reasons. I understand all the discussion, but you know, the best foreign policy of the recent several decades belong to him. He did not initiate any new war. Except for when he did. Tim, when you get your bestie basically providing the clip that proves that you are a liar to your own base and you've got Europe's far right leaders saying, quote, the magas should really stop campaigning internationally because everyone and everything they support loses the elections. That's the far right sort of, that's the new Flemish Alliance Party leader saying that that's the impact of Donald Trump and his movement in Europe. I think there is a toxicity to Donald Trump personally and JD Vance personally that makes it hard to land Air Force One and Air Force Two over the next five months. I mean, I understand all the structural things and I think for Mark and Miles who sort of stared at the circuitry of both our elections and our Homeland Security and National Security protections, I don't know that they'll get a good night's sleep until magas sort of purge from governance and politics at every level. But I think in terms of the things that move, record numbers of voters that swing an off your election 24 points in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district, these are political phenomenons and we don't have the right words and they're not waves, they're not swings, they're not targets. They are movements against this thing that sort of swept in and took everyone by surprise. How do Democrats and how does the pro-democracy side capitalize on that? Yeah, yeah, look, there's a rejection of him that is coming from a lot of different quarters within his own coalition and that's good. And I totally agree with you by the way, this is not, I'm not throwing any parties at my house, but right now to celebrate the end of MAGA and there's just a ton of work ahead. He's gonna do a lot of damage ahead and it's critical as we saw in 2020, not just to defeat him and his movement, but to grind it into dust, to overwhelmingly defeat it, to bring as many people as possible and so it cannot re-emerge from the ether again. And I think that is then the strategic question now. How does that, how do you do that? How do you get as many people on board as possible? And he's helping with that and so you start to take advantage of it. And you mentioned the war you put the clip there from Orban. I moved the view, none of us have a crystal ball so we'll see what happens. But I think people who have already, I know that the majority of Americans are against the word have already turned against it. But I think that even that group of people is underestimating the amount of damage that's gonna come at home as a result of it. I mean, like every day this blockade goes on, there are new issues that are gonna arise with the supply chain and with the delivery of energy, both abroad and at home. And I saw just a little news item today about how once again now beef prices are up and they're gonna be at a record high. When people are trying to spend their summers going on road trips, having a barbecue with their friends and every single thing is more expensive. And the answer is, well, we had to do this war of choice in Iran. And regular people are gonna be like, why? Maga voters are gonna feel betrayed. People that voted for him because they're unhappy about the economy are gonna be confused and angry about the fact that he made this decision that went against the reason that they voted for him. We're already seeing young people get off the boat. We're already seeing a lot of Hispanic voters get off the train. And it's gonna get a lot worse. There's gonna be a lot of pain, unfortunately, ahead of us. And so I think that it's important to take the opportunity to speak to all those people and to say, and for the Democrats and for others in the pro-democracy movement to say clearly that we hear their concerns. We understand them. When we get back in power, we're not gonna make these stupid mistakes. Like we're not gonna be corrupt, we're not gonna betray them. We're gonna listen to their concerns where their concerns are about their personal financial interests, not what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. And so, I think that this is a huge opportunity to do that and gain credibility with those voters. And it doesn't mean that the political winds couldn't shift back, or anything. There's nothing is guaranteed in life. But the opportunity is here. And what we saw in Hungary is a bit of a model for how to do it. I have the number here. Cases of mail voting fraud are very, very rare, accounting for only 0.0004, 3% of total mail ballots cast, about four cases out of every 10 million mail votes. This has never been about fraud. No one on Earth One thinks it is, but the lie persists over on Earth Two. It does. And I think the mail in voting attack is the thing that I think is the most alarming to me, particularly thinking about the post-election period, when if there are elections that come to recounts, like throwing out the mail in ballots, they're going to do a full direct assault on it. Similarly to what we were talking about earlier, there have been some examples of their attack on mail and voting backfiring on them, because their own voters don't trust the mail anymore, and there are a lot of older MAGA voters who had relied on the mail previously. So I do think that this is important to be vigilant about. One additional thing, something that Mara said about, that Trump not acting like somebody that cares about the midterms. I think that that's true. I think that there's an ominous way to look at that, which is that he's planning to rig the midterms. And then I think that there's another slightly less ominous way to look at that, which is that Donald Trump doesn't care about anybody besides himself, and he wasn't really planning on doing any legislation in 27 and 28. And it doesn't matter one way or another to him, whether or not Sherrod Brown or John Husted is the senator from Ohio. And so it could be, I just want to offer that as a potentially slightly more optimistic look at the same analysis. Tim, I thought this was the case before the war started. It sort of manifested in the way he talks about how hot people tell them the country is. Like the only people saying that to him are the people he sees in the buffet line at Mar-a-Lago. Like those are the only people saying that. And I think this idea of sort of political isolation is where he feels comfortable frotting out his ugly plans for the new ballroom. But it gets me back to people that should be responsive to customers. And people making decisions. I mean, the boycott movements, every time you open the paper, there is a new boycott movement. People are starting to feel this, and I sort of align with your rosier sense of it. They are starting to rediscover their agency. Yeah, they are. I think the two things are like Trump definitely, Trump's always deeply cared about elite opinion and recognition. That was one of the many great frauds of Trump. We're telling like he cared about regular people. He always wanted more credit from the elites, even going back to before his time running for office. And I think maybe that's exacerbated now. I don't know if that's because death comes for all of us and you know, you get older, you want that recognition even more, or whether it's related to him not having normal people around him anymore. It could be a bunch of things. But like that, I think it's increasingly true now. And yeah, that's right. He wants the approval of the rich donors and businessmen around him. He wants to improve all the other heads of state. You know, he's got BB and MBS in his ear, telling him that he can save the whole Middle East until good out in history. You know, people raise statues to him. And I think that obviously he cares about that more than he cares about the guy at the gas pump, complaining about the gas pump. And that's a massive political mistake for him and his movement. It was one of the things we didn't mention about Orban earlier is that the economy in Hungary was awful, which is why it's kind of crazy to have Hungary as a model to begin with. And it's only gonna get worse. Like all this stuff is only gonna expand. You think gas prices are high now, wait till August. Right. Marguerite, thank you so much. It's so nice to see you today. Tim and Mark, thank you for spending the hour with me. We're gonna stick in one more break. We'll be right back.
