Bloomberg Surveillance

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Joumanna Bercetche and Heath Terry

3 min
May 5, 202626 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Tom Keene hosts guests Joumanna Bercetche and Heath Terry to discuss two major investment themes: geopolitical shifts in the Middle East following regional conflict, and the massive infrastructure buildout driving the AI revolution. The episode explores how these macro trends are reshaping capital flows and economic margins across industries.

Insights
  • The GCC is fragmenting with individual countries charting independent paths rather than unified Arab League positions, particularly the UAE seeking separate strategic positioning
  • AI infrastructure spending will reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, representing the largest margin transfer in tech history as 90% of incremental software profits shift to infrastructure
  • A 40% margin delta is being captured by infrastructure providers as AI adoption moves incremental dollars from software/internet services (90% margins) to AI infrastructure (50% margins)
  • Geopolitical realignment in the Middle East is creating new investment opportunities and reshaping regional economic alliances beyond traditional multilateral frameworks
Trends
AI infrastructure investment acceleration: $710B in 2024 projected to reach $2.1T by 2030Margin compression in software and internet services as AI economics reshape industry profitabilityMiddle East geopolitical realignment creating independent national strategies outside traditional Arab multilateral structuresHyperscaler capital intensity driving infrastructure-focused investment thesis over traditional software playsUAE positioning itself as independent economic actor separate from broader Arab League consensusTechnology sector bifurcation between legacy software/internet and emerging AI infrastructure opportunities
Topics
AI Infrastructure InvestmentHyperscaler EconomicsTechnology Margin CompressionMiddle East Geopolitical RealignmentGCC Strategic PositioningUAE Foreign PolicySoftware Industry DisruptionCapital Allocation ShiftsRegional Conflict Economic ImpactsInfrastructure as Asset Class
Companies
Citigroup
Heath Terry provides technology sector analysis and AI infrastructure investment thesis from Citigroup research
CME Group
Sponsor providing S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trading with 24-hour liquidity
People
Tom Keene
Host of Bloomberg Surveillance and moderator of the single best idea segment
Joumanna Bercetche
Guest discussing Middle East geopolitical shifts and UAE strategic positioning following regional conflict
Heath Terry
Guest providing AI infrastructure investment analysis and technology sector margin shift thesis
Stephen Carroll
Co-host of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast covering EU politics and policy
Caroline Hepker
Co-host of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast covering markets and economy
Quotes
"The GCC as a whole, each country seems to be navigating their own path forward. And the UAE in the past week have very clearly defined to the world the axis and the sort of path that they want to lay out for themselves."
Joumanna BercetcheEarly segment
"This is the biggest transfer of economics within an industry that we have ever seen before. We are taking 90% incremental margin dollars out of software, out of internet, out of information services, and we're moving those into AI, which has roughly 50% incremental margin dollars now."
Heath TerryMid segment
"That 40% delta is going to infrastructure. That is not the railroads of 1880, 1900, 1920, and on to the success of the 30s and 40s."
Heath TerryMid segment
Full Transcript
When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving. Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity? In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4 p.m. until the next morning. But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night. Learn more at cmegroup.com slash equity futures. Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepker in London. We're the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday, keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled, and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break. So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens. It's smart, calm and to the point. And it fits into your morning. You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. A single best idea, well, two best ideas, the set of conversations we're having around this news flow, around some of our fears, if you will, is just extraordinary. I just insisted that she come on today. It's late in her day. Jumana Brasacci of Horizons in Dubai has been a shining light out on Twitter and LinkedIn. She's been absolutely extraordinary. First of her day, midnight our time in New York. She will begin Bloomberg's coverage of this war. Jumana Brasacci. When we look back in the history books, we'll look back at this war when it eventually does come to an end. One of the byproducts is going to be that, you know, the GCC as a whole, each country seems to be navigating their own path forward. And the UAE in the past week have very clearly defined to the world the axis and the sort of path that they want to lay out for themselves. And it's not necessarily being part of that Arab League or necessarily part of the Arab multilateral organizations, because the feeling is that those organizations are not doing enough for the UAE. And that now they have a real possibility to carve their own future that perhaps is separate to other Arab states. A local look at Dubai our Jumana Persechi of Horizons With us as well today from Citigroup is Heath Terry He goes back decades in the coverage of technology as Paul Sweeney mentioned one of the founding people to cover Google a long time ago. Heath Terry is incredibly current at Citigroup in this time of hyperscalers. Let's listen. This is a it will touch everything kind of technology. You know, as far as the trade goes, the AI trade, it's still very much infrastructure, right? We're talking about $710 billion worth of infrastructure being built this year. We're talking about that number getting to $2.1 trillion in our estimates by 2030. So there's still massive growth just on the infrastructure. I've said this on your show before, Tom, this is the biggest transfer of economics within an industry that we have ever seen before. We are taking 90% incremental margin dollars out of software, out of internet, out of information services, and we're moving those into AI, which has roughly 50% incremental margin dollars now, and that 40% delta is going to infrastructure. That is not the railroads of 1880, 1900, 1920, and on to the success of the 30s and 40s. Heath Terry with Citigroup on podcasts. We're at Spotify and Apple on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea. Thank you When the rest of the markets slow down the futures market keeps moving Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity? In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4 p.m. until the next morning. But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night. Learn more at cmegroup.com slash equity futures. I'm Francine Lacroix, an award-winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast, Leaders with Francine Lacroix from Bloomberg Podcasts. I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment. But I've always been curious, who are these people as leaders? I don't think there's one right way to be a leader. Make decisions. A poor decision is always better than no decision. Listen to new episodes every other Monday. Follow Leaders with Francine Lacroix wherever you get your podcasts. A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa. Africans need to invest. There are deals to be done and business to be won. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future. The digitalization of Africa is going to power its growth. Ridding the world of something like HIV is possible. Population growth is so enormous in Africa. Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.