Charles Payne's Unstoppable Prosperity Podcast

Charles’ Take: Buy the Semiconductor Dip or Run for Cover?

7 min
Jul 16, 20262 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Charles Payne and Jessica Inskip discuss whether to buy semiconductor stocks on the recent dip, analyzing ASML's strong earnings results and the broader semiconductor sector's performance. They recommend maintaining exposure to both hardware (semiconductors) and software names, with particular focus on memory chip plays like Micron and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Insights
  • Strong earnings don't guarantee immediate stock appreciation; ASML gapped up then struggled despite beating expectations, reflecting market leverage and profit-taking dynamics
  • Hardware/semiconductor plays are outperforming software currently due to enterprise CapEx allocation toward data infrastructure and storage rather than SaaS solutions
  • Micron represents a buying opportunity with EPS targets up 30% post-earnings while stock price remains near 50-day moving average, suggesting valuation disconnect
  • Semiconductor sector maintains monopolistic characteristics (ASML, Taiwan Semi) that provide pricing power and sustainable competitive advantages in AI infrastructure buildout
  • Dollar-cost averaging and cash-secured puts are prudent retail strategies to gain exposure without overconcentration during volatile semiconductor sector corrections
Trends
Enterprise CapEx shifting from software to hardware/data infrastructure investmentsMemory chip and storage demand accelerating due to AI and data center buildoutSemiconductor sector consolidation and M&A activity increasing alongside IPO pipeline heatingLeverage in overseas markets creating spillover volatility in U.S. semiconductor stocksValuation disconnects emerging between earnings growth (30%+ EPS increases) and stock price performance in memory chip namesMonopolistic semiconductor suppliers (ASML, Taiwan Semi) demonstrating pricing power despite market correctionsSaaS sector weakness relative to hardware, though selective software exposure still recommendedRetail investor sentiment shifting toward dip-buying in quality semiconductor names rather than panic selling
Companies
ASML
Dutch semiconductor equipment monopoly posted 9.3B euro revenue (beat 8.8B estimate) but stock struggled post-earning...
Micron Technology
Memory chip manufacturer with 30%+ EPS target increases post-earnings, trading near 50-day moving average, recommende...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Critical semiconductor manufacturer with monopolistic positioning, utilized by NVIDIA, recommended for dip-buying des...
NVIDIA
Referenced as example of previously 'overcrowded' stock that justified its valuation; utilizes Taiwan Semi chips
PayPal
Announced $53 billion takeover deal; Jessica Inskip's previous recommendation that delivered 30% gains on acquisition...
IBM
Earnings reports indicate CapEx budgets being allocated toward data and storage infrastructure rather than traditiona...
Dell Technologies
Earnings reports confirm enterprise CapEx shifting toward data infrastructure and storage investments
People
Charles Payne
Host of Unstoppable Prosperity Podcast discussing semiconductor sector investment strategy and market dynamics
Jessica Inskip
Guest analyst providing semiconductor sector recommendations, ASML and Micron thesis, and M&A market outlook
Quotes
"They are a monopoly and yet, you know, again, you know, this is part of investing. They don't go straight up and it's not always logical."
Charles PayneMid-episode
"We need the picks and shovels to artificial intelligence. This is a component to it."
Jessica InskipEarly-mid episode
"Micron, I think, is something we have. It may seem overcrowded, but NVIDIA seemed overcrowded at one point as well. So that demand is there."
Jessica InskipMid-episode
"I still think this is a great buying opportunity. If we look at the past month, it's actually been rather flat. EPS has been up over 30%."
Jessica InskipMid-episode
"Usually in a deal like this, I have a habit of just taking it off because to your point, they can't, they don't always necessarily go through."
Charles PayneLate episode
Full Transcript
He's earned decades of Wall Street success, a lifelong student of the market who learned to navigate the world of finance with unshaken confidence, an underdog who achieved the American dream. Now the Fox Business host is sharing all his investing wisdom with you on Charles Payne's Unstoppable Prosperity podcast. You know, it really did look like it was going to be a great session for the semis though this morning. Semis, semi-cap, all of them, right? Because ASML, the Dutch, big Dutch, let's call it, you know, monopoly, if you will, posted monster results. 9.3 billion euros on the top. The street was looking for 8.8 billion. 2.9 billion euros net. The street was looking for 2.6. But the stock has struggled. It did gap out the market, right? It gapped like a rocket ship and now struggling big time. So it feels like something's not right. I want to bring in Stockbrokers.com, their director of investor research, Jessica Inskip. Jessica, this is one of your favorite names. In fact, I think if I get it right, you say you call this the monopoly you can't replicate. Why the struggle? Why all of a sudden is it just sell on the news, the kind of atmosphere we're in right now? Well, I think from a trading perspective, we see a lot of leverage that's happening overseas that's carrying over into our markets. And then when we have earnings, we're pulling forward that demand. So post there is a little bit of a sell So I still think we need to have exposure to it It is a monopoly We need the picks and shovels to artificial intelligence This is a component to it And these numbers reiterating margin expansion twice in a year forward guidance twice in a year reiterates that. Cheers to America's 250th birthday. Get 20% off your first purchase at foxnewswineshop.com with code FNRADIO20. 20% discount excludes wine club offers and cannot be combined with any other promotion. Expires July 31st, 2026. Must be 21 or older to order. Please drink responsibly and they raise their prices. I mean they have pricing power. They're monopoly. Let's face it They are a monopoly and yet, you know, again, you know, this is part of investing They don't go straight up and it's not always logical Absolutely smart people take advantage of it, but we know people are also emotional as well. That's what happens within the markets. Absolutely. I agree Software versus semiconductors. So folks software has gotten annihilated versus the semiconductors but this is the last month and they are trying. You can't see it. It's a little small there. It's a little better here. Is it time to start looking at a few of these software names? So I think we should still have exposure to it. And I still think the SaaSpocalypse is overblown in certain aspects. It's prudent for our retail investors to dollar cost average in. We can utilize cash secured puts in order to do that because we don't want to go all in. And I think that's something we're missing completely. But yes, I do think it's important to own both of these. right now the hardware is going to do better because that what we seeing from all of these earnings reports thus far where CapEx and spending is going hardware and data So that performing But I still think there should be exposure to some software We will see it. Not the most concentration in your portfolio, but a component of it. Because you're still stronger when it comes to memory chips and things like that. Absolutely. And Micron, Micron's flirting with that 50-day moving average. It's come down a lot, again, since the magnificent earnings report. When does someone consider buying more? I still think this is a great buying opportunity. If we look at the past month, it's actually been rather flat. EPS has been up over 30%, so analysts have increased their EPS targets over 30% with the past month. Over 30%? Over 30%. Wow. That is a buying opportunity there. Revenue is over 300%, so Micron, I think, is something we have. It may seem overcrowded, but NVIDIA seemed overcrowded at one point as well. So that demand is there. We saw that from IBM, Dell. All of the earnings so far are saying CapEx budgets are being squeezed, and they're going into data. They're going into storage. So, therefore, we need exposure to that. Just as ASML seems like, you know, that they've got such a sweet spot carved out, so does Taiwan. This one absolutely does. I mean, this is another name that you like a lot. It's another one that's floating around with the 50-day. Take advantage of this dip. Absolutely. Still need exposure to this. Take advantage of this dip that buy mentality I am absolutely believing in that But this is a component even Nvidia utilizes them So it very important to have that Okay I wanna give you some props here Okay. PayPal is a name that you like. I did. And it got a huge announcement this morning, $53 billion takeover. And so I guess what I'm doing is saying, congratulations, now can you give us the next PayPal? Thank you. I would love, we talked about that last week there, Charles. I need the next takeover. I want to wake up and the stock's up 30%. There you go. Now, we do have headline risk with us now, and I think that's important to know. So I actually would cut off some based on the news today. Absolutely. Because if this deal doesn't go through, antitrust comes in, there is a lot of risk now. That could bring it right back down to those previous levels. Right, right. But this is the, do you think, maybe we'll see more acquisition activity? I do think we'll see more M&A activity. We're seeing that already across the market and adjacent, but with the IPO pipeline heating up and what we're seeing, that's going to start more need for capital, if you will. Usually in a deal like this, I have a habit of just taking it off because to your point, they can't, they don't always necessarily go through. But congratulations, Jessica, good stuff. Really appreciate you. You've been listening to the Charles Payne's Unstoppable Prosperity Podcast. Make sure you subscribe to this series and don't forget to rate and review. And keep listening so I can help put you on the path to unstoppable prosperity now. you