AgDay Podcast

AgDay 05/06/26

20 min
May 6, 202628 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

AgDay covers record diesel prices across six U.S. states driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, planting progress across the Midwest with uneven conditions, and a 10% pullback in Midwest Class A farmland values. The episode also features a 17-year-old Georgia farmer managing his family's operation after his father's death.

Insights
  • Diesel prices at record highs in multiple states with no relief expected through 2026 due to geopolitical factors, directly impacting farm operating costs
  • Midwest planting progress on track nationally but highly variable by region due to spotty spring moisture, creating uneven risk profiles for farmers
  • Farmland values showing divergent trends: Midwest Class A experiencing 10% pullback from 2021-2022 peaks while California market driven by water security for permanent crops
  • Farmer sentiment declining as measured by Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer, with current conditions index down 11 points month-over-month
  • Early-booked fertilizer purchases provided significant cost protection for farmers who locked in prices before spring price increases
Trends
Geopolitical supply chain disruptions creating sustained commodity price volatility through 2026Regional weather fragmentation increasing farm-level planning complexity and risk differentiationFarmland valuation correction in Midwest after multi-year peak, with Class B ground showing more resilience than Class AWater security emerging as primary value driver in permanent crop regions, particularly California almonds and pistachiosFarmer sentiment deterioration despite adequate soil moisture and planting progress, indicating macro-economic concernsSeed company consolidation continuing with Corteva's planned split into independent entitiesAgricultural commodity markets showing profit-taking behavior after rally periods, indicating trader cautionLate-season weather volatility (May snowstorms in Colorado, severe thunderstorms in South) creating crop emergence risks
Topics
Diesel Price Records and Geopolitical ImpactStrait of Hormuz Military Tensions and ShippingMidwest Corn and Soybean Planting ProgressRegional Soil Moisture and Weather VariabilityFarmland Value Trends and Market CorrectionsWater Security and California Permanent CropsFarmer Sentiment and Economic ConfidenceFertilizer Price Volatility and Forward ContractingGrain and Livestock Futures Market AnalysisSeed Industry Consolidation and RebrandingCrop Emergence Risks from Late-Season ColdCattle Market Recovery and Cash Price StrengthU.S. Beef Trade Access to United KingdomDairy Product Labeling and Geographic Indication RightsYouth Farm Succession and Family Farm Continuity
Companies
GasBuddy
Provided data on record diesel prices across six U.S. states and national average trends
Purdue University
Published Ag Economy Barometer showing 6-point index decline and farmer sentiment deterioration
USDA
Provided planting progress data showing 22% of Iowa corn crop planted and 11% of soybeans
Acres
Conducted Land Market Survey on farmland values with Realtors Land Institute and National Association of Realtors
Corteva
Announced seed business rebranding to Viler Inc. ahead of planned 2026 split into two independent companies
Environmental Protection Agency
Opened 60-day public comment period on draft fungicide strategy balancing farmer needs with endangered species protec...
U.S. Meat Export Federation
Hosted events in London celebrating U.S. beef's regained duty-free access to United Kingdom market
Farm Journal
Conducted exclusive research on farmland value trends and hosted the AgDay podcast broadcast
People
Patrick DeHaan
Discussed record diesel prices across six states and predicted prices will remain elevated through end of 2026
Aaron Hsu
Provided analysis on 2025 farmland market trends showing stabilization in sales volumes after 2024 decline
Haley Bicklehop
Hosted AgDay podcast episode from Breakthrough event in Des Moines
Tyne Morgan
Reported on uneven planting progress across southern Iowa due to spotty spring moisture
Pat Sheldon
Southwest Iowa farmer discussed planting progress, fertilizer pre-buying strategy, and 2019 flood recovery
Matt McCarthy
Completed planting April 30th with 95% corn and 75% soybean progress in his region
Chris Schenck
Near Mankato, Minnesota farmer reporting halfway planting progress and crop emergence concerns
Cody White
Central Illinois farmer dealing with flooding, hail, tornadoes and dust storms affecting crop emergence
Chris Harrell
Carthage, Illinois farmer with 80% beans and 50% corn planted, continuing progress despite scattered showers
Derek Birdnigle
Cresco, Iowa farmer reporting halfway planting completion with early fields beginning to emerge
Margie Eckelkamp
Interviewed Aaron Hsu on farmland value survey findings and market trends
Greg McBride
Analyzed grain and livestock futures market movements, profit-taking, and chart resistance levels
Jack Van Meter
Provided weather forecast for severe thunderstorms and late-season Colorado snowstorm
Waylon Neesmith
17-year-old Georgia farmer managing family farm after father's death, operating 60 acres corn and 80 acres peanuts
Quotes
"No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon."
Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddyEarly in episode
"We're pretty much in a rotation, so split our risk that way. You can't outguess the market, so at least you're only half wrong if something goes bad."
Pat Sheldon, Iowa farmerMid-episode
"We had the major all of our dry was on last fall and over half of our anhydrous before it got too nasty for us to keep going and we finished it up this spring. So it was all we had it all pre bought and before all the prices went crazy."
Pat Sheldon, Iowa farmerMid-episode
"Very as far as raising the crop. We've got decent moisture, probably better than we had going in last year. We've been lucky the last two or three years. We're getting timely rains, not a lot of rain, but at the right time, and we've raised really good crops."
Pat Sheldon, Iowa farmerMid-episode
"One of the most things I remember is there was never a dull moment with him. He was always joking. We was never serious. We just always played around. We got stuff done, but we just always made a good time doing it."
Waylon Neesmith, Georgia farmerLate in episode
Full Transcript
From the studios of Farm Journal Broadcast, this is Ag Day. Thanks for watching Ag Day. I'm Haley Bicklehop, and I'm here at Breakthrough in Des Moines, where companies are hearing directly from farmers about what they need on their farms. Well, now on to our top story. According to GasBuddy, six states are seeing record diesel prices. We're only 20 cents from a record high national average. We spoke to Patrick DeHaan with the Gas Buddy about it on Tuesday. Looking at state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically. Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record. And out on the West Coast, I believe a couple of weeks ago, Arizona did. Washington state is at an all-time record. So I think there's probably half a dozen or so states that have set new all-time records. And the national average is just 20 cents a gallon away itself from reaching a new all-time record high. No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon. DeHaan believes that these high diesel prices will stick around even if the war with Iran ends. And they will stay high at least through the end of this year. The U.S. has promised safety to any ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That's in an effort to bring fuel prices down. Few ship owners have taken that chance, however, and those who did on Monday found themselves the target of Iranian fire. The U.S. did respond. The Secretary of Defense says that this is not a violation of the ceasefire. Ultimately, this is a separate and distinct project. And we expected there would be some churn at the beginning, which happened. And we said we would defend and defend aggressively, and we absolutely have. Iran knows that. And ultimately, the president's going to make a decision whether anything were to escalate into a violation of a ceasefire. But certainly we would urge Iran to be prudent in the actions that they take to keep that underneath this threshold. The U.S. military says it destroyed six Iranian small boats on Monday, and those vessels were attacking U.S. naval ships and commercial ships. Two U.S. flagged ships safely crossed through the strait. And all of this is causing farmer sentiment to drop. Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer shows its index dropped 6 points from March to April. The Current Conditions Index fell 11 points, and the Futures Expectations Index saw a 4-point fall. The Plant Your Independence Tour is brought to you by Wiffles Hybrids. At Wiffles, we've made a choice. A choice to remain independent. A choice to remain farm family owned. A choice to stay American. So when it's time to make your choice, make a statement. Plant your independence. Plant wiffles. The USDA predicts that 22% of Iowa's corn crop is planted, which is right in line with the five-year average. Soybeans are 11%, running just slightly behind. But those statewide numbers, they don't tell the whole story. As Farm Journalist Tyne Morgan shows us in southern Iowa, progress may be on track. But spotty spring showers are creating a much more uneven planting picture for farmers across the state. In the far southwestern corner of Iowa, Pat Sheldon is relieved to be rolling again. We'll be 25 or 30 percent done by the beans by the end of the day. In this area, Sheldon prefers to be done planting by now. But this year, planting progress is just slightly behind. We're a little behind where we normally are. For no sooner than we started, we've come right along. For the Sheldons, they aren't veering off course this year either, sticking with their typical 50-50 acreage split. We're pretty much in a rotation, so split our risk that way. You can't outguess the market, so at least you're only half wrong if something goes bad. This week, Sheldon was busy planting soybeans. With 80% of his corn in the ground, he says the remaining 20% of his acres are still too saturated to plant. How long had it been since you had been in the field? A week, maybe. Has it been that wet here? Yeah, not as wet as it's been east and south, but just enough to keep you out. He says this is his first field of soybeans, but if the forecast holds, he'll be finished in a matter of days. So you feel good? You're not nervous? Yeah, the forecast looks good for here anyway, dry, where we got a week or so. I can get a lot done on the bottom when it's dry. But overall, it doesn't sound like you have many complaints right now. No, just we need dry weather and just sunshine and let us work. It won't take long. It'll go in fast if it stays dry like this for a few days. Fertilizer prices may be frustrating today, but Sheldon says they managed to get everything booked early. We had the major all of our dry was on last fall and over half of our anhydrous before it got too nasty for us to keep going and we finished it up this spring. So it was all we had it all pre bought and before all the prices went crazy So we were fortunate on that aspect Yeah so you feel like you are in good shape Yeah we are We in good shape Good shape especially compared to just seven years ago when the scene here was much different So, Pat, in 2019, was this underwater? Yeah, we were probably three feet of water where we're standing. Wow. And did anything get planted that year? Not on the bottom. There was some stuff in the hills that we had, what little bit we had was planted, and that was about it. That year, all but 10% of Sheldon's farm ground was underwater, suffocating all spring and summer. So these are photos of right here underwater in 2019. How long did that water stick around? 100 days about. It was late June, I think, when they closed it. Yeah, and you still have marks on some of these sheds and grain bins that shows just how high the water was? You have a reminder every day. See it every day. Farming on the brink of the Missouri River, Sheldon understands the rhythm of extremes. He's seen firsthand what the river can take without warning, but that also means he's grateful for the good years in between. But overall, Pat, I mean, would you say you're optimistic heading into 2026? Very as far as raising the crop. We've got decent moisture, probably better than we had going in last year. We've been lucky the last two or three years. We're getting timely rains, not a lot of rain, but at the right time, and we've raised really good crops. So we're hoping for more of the same. In northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy finished planting on April 30th, and he says that corn planting is around 95 percent done in this area and 75 percent of soybeans have been seeded as the eastern half of the county has missed recent rains. The crop wasn't damaged by the recent freezing temperatures due to warm soils. Well, further north near Mankato, Minnesota, Chris Schenck says he's at the halfway park for planting, but he's a week to 10 days ahead of normal. He says there's a concern on crop emergence, especially for corn. All the seed I've been digging behind the plant are here checking. We're dry down that inch and a half, so I'm putting that corn down there at that two and a quarter to two and a half inch range. He says we'll need a rain soon and some warmer temperatures to ensure a good start. In central Illinois, Cody White's farm has been through the ringer. In the past two weeks, he's seen flooding, hail, tornadoes and dust storms. Emerged beans are beat up and torn apart. and he says he'll know in the next couple weeks what he needs to replant. Now, about 150 miles east in Carthage, Illinois, Chris Harrell has about 80 percent of his beans and 50 percent of his corn in the ground, some of which is emerging. Now, Harrell had scattered showers on Monday night, but he's still making progress with planting over the next few days. Planting is about halfway complete for Cresco, Iowa farmer Derek Birdnigle, who says that most growers paused on Friday after a cold snap, and then they got back into the fields as temps climbed into the 70s. Mornings are cool in the 30s or 40s, but planting continues with no rain in the forecast and mostly favorable soil conditions. Birdnickle says a large amount of corn is already in the ground, with early planted fields now beginning to emerge. Farm Journal had the opportunity to exclusively discuss new research, revealing two eye-catching trends in farmland value. The Land Market Survey, done by Acres in conjunction with Realtors Land Institute and the National Association of Realtors, reveals that two farm value trends, one of which Midwest Class A ground is seeing a price pullback and water security is redefining the California market. Well, in the Midwest, Class A farmland is seeing a mature pullback of about 10 percent from the 2021 to 2022 peaks. Class B ground remains slightly more resilient. Well, for California, looking at the data, water security drives the value, particularly for permanent crops. The crops showing this trend in spades, almonds and pistachios. Well, our very own Margie Ecckelkamp, editorial lead for top producer in The Scoop, got perspective from Aaron Hsu, that's the chief technology officer at Acres. So looking ahead, what should we be watching? In 2025, the good news is we did not see a continued decline year over year in overall sales volumes or acreage turnover. In other words, 23, we went down 10 or 15 percent in terms of overall sales volume change. 24, we went down 30 percent. So it really dropped back down in terms of how much was happening. 25, we don't see that. You can read Margie Echolkamp's full report on the land value survey at agweb.com. Fungicide. Well, if you have an opinion about it, now's your chance. The Environmental Protection Agency is offering the U.S. public an opportunity to help shape the future of agricultural safety. A 60-day comment period is open right now to weigh in on a draft fungicide strategy, which is designed to balance the needs of American farmers with the protection of the nation's most vulnerable wildlife. The EPA says it aims to safeguard more than 1,000 federally endangered and threatened species while ensuring that growers still maintain the tools necessary to protect the nation's food supply. While Colorado is seeing an early May snow, the view of the Rocky Mountains before two feet of snow arrives. That's coming up. And plus Corteva is announcing a change for the seed side of its business the new name you find its products under Oh no oh no oh no And today picture of the day comes in video form Well Trevor found himself in quite the predicament earlier this month. He estimates that 300 head of cattle got out of their five-acre lot one night. Now it took about an hour and 30 minutes to get everyone back where they needed to be. Trevor's farm is in southwest Wisconsin, and boy, it is never good when those cows are out. Looks like Trevor had his hands full for our video of the day. Ag Day is brought to you by Pioneer, celebrating a century of innovation at pioneer.com slash 100. Ag Day is brought to you by FBN Finance, experienced loan advisors putting farmers first with farmland rates as low as 4.99%. As Corteva continues its work to split the business in two, its new seed and genetics business is getting a new name. It's now Viler Inc. getting rid of the placeholder Spinco. Last October, Corteva announced it would be splitting into two independent publicly traded entities. Viler is on track to become its own company by the fourth quarter of 2026. It will have more than 4,000 germplasm patents and 2,000 biotechnology patents. While grains take a break from the recent rally on Tuesday, with cattle bouncing back, Michelle Rook looks at what drove the moves in markets now. Tuesday's market closes, had livestock futures to the plus side grain settings back. Greg McBride is joining us with analysis. And Greg, we had a nice push up on Monday in the grains, especially corn and beans, into some new highs. So was Tuesday more about just some profit taking? Yeah, I think Tuesday led us to some profit taking with the markets making these new highs as you go into spring. We rallied on Monday, Sunday night and Monday, with the idea of the strong crush in the strong ethanol numbers that we got on Friday afternoon. So seeing those numbers pushes higher. There's no component to the wheat market when it comes to the fuel side. So wheat on Monday was fairly quiet. You add a little bit of rain, it puts a little bit of pressure there. But corn and beans, with their move on Monday, look strong. They go make new highs. And then immediately at this time of the year, you should see maybe some farmer selling coming in to follow that up. So that's what Tuesday looked like. Plus the pullback in crude oil maybe had a little impact. 100%. We want to say we're not necessarily as tied as closely to the crude oil as we were initially when this thing happened back in March. But the wheat market still tends to follow some of that strength and weakness, that ebb and flow that we see in the crude market. Did we have some of the market and the grains, especially like July corn, run up into chart resistance too? 100%. You had an exact double top in the July corn, at least for now. That's what it looks like. It looks like a double top at that 478 and a half area. The December went up and made new highs. This is great. This is exactly where we'd like to see it. Everybody wants to sell $5 corn. This is getting to be their chance. Cattle bounced on Tuesday. Do you think it was short covering or higher cash ideas? I think the lead in is going higher. If you see the cash jump, you know, $8 to $10 like it did last week, and then you start out this week with some early week Monday and Tuesday trade at that even or slightly higher, $255, $257, that's going to put some sparks behind that market. Thanks so much. That is Greg McBride with Allen Deal and Markets Now. Colorado is seeing its biggest snowfall of the season in May. The snow started falling on Tuesday morning. Well, this is a view from the Earth cam pointed right at the Rocky Mountains. The National Weather Service has an expected snowfall of more than two feet in some spots. Now let's go ahead and hand it off to our Ag Day weather team to see who else could be getting some moisture. I'm meteorologist Jack Van Meter. Once again, we are going to be on alert for portions of the country for strong to severe thunderstorms. Thankfully, the chances are still going to be on the lower side. Nonetheless, we need to be weather aware today, especially if you live in the Texas region going all the way through Tennessee. And it's not just today because this system is still going to be packing a punch even tomorrow. Thankfully that severe window going to be a lot shorter going from Mississippi going all the way through the Carolinas as well. And then thankfully as we make our way into Friday, that system is going to be moving off into the Atlantic. So this is what it going to look like We can see a lot of rain is going to be expected to start off the day today and the trailing end that cold front that is driving the system and pushing all that moisture into the atmosphere is going to be moving down to the south and down to the east for today There your thunderstorm chance for tomorrow morning starting to sweep off into the Atlantic And did you see right before I animated everything out in the Rocky Mountains by Denver pretty substantial snowstorm going that is going to add on to some late season snowpack for portions of the Rocky Mountains. Cool weather is not just going to persist currently in the Great Lakes and Midwest region. That's going to continue even into the middle portion of the month. Here's our temperature outlook from the 10th to the 14th. You can see that bullseye for below average temperatures is going to be right around the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures are going to persist out on the West Coast. Oakley, Kansas, a high temperature of 48 degrees and a low of 32 degrees. Pulaski, Mississippi, a high temperature of 80 and a low of 61. Finally, Spencer, Indiana, 62 degrees and a low of 43 degrees. Well, coming up, dairy producers in the U.S. sure have something to cheese about. It's a naming right secured for certain products. Plus, a way of life passed from father to son. The two crops one teenager is managing after the sudden loss of his dad. Watch Markets Now with Michelle Rook on the Farm Journal YouTube channel, keeping you updated throughout the day on the markets at the open, midday and close. Find out what moved the markets today and what to expect the market to do next. Ag Day is brought to you by the International Fresh Produce Association. Experience the energy of their retail conference and golf tournament. Learn more at freshproduce.com. Well, good news for U.S. beef producers across the pond. U.S. beef recently regained duty-free access to the United Kingdom. The first beef shipments arrived in March and were celebrated by a pair of events hosted by the U.S. Meat Export Federation in London last week. The new 13,000 metric ton quota was included in the trade framework reached by the Trump administration last year. It's the first zero-duty access to the U.K. since its exit from the European Union in 2020. Well, back here in America, dairy farmers had a victory to celebrate last Friday. U.S. trade representatives are making progress in their fight to protect the free use of generic food and beverage terms. This year's Special 301 report states that American producers can keep using Parmesan and feta to describe their products. European producers have been fighting for the exclusive rights to those labels. This can be traced back to the EU's geographical indication policies. Those policies limit who can use certain terms based off of where their farms are. Well, a 17-year-old in Georgia is now the head of his family farm. The heartbreaking loss of his dad that forced him to step up even in the middle of grief. That's coming up on Ag Day. Ag Day is brought to you by Veltima Fungicide from BASF. Make this your best season yet. A high schooler in Georgia is carrying the weight of his family's farm. Waylon Neesmith lost his dad last April after a medical emergency. Well, he responded by getting in the tractor. Waylon says it felt like a calling to take care of his family fields in Sycamore. That's about two and a half hours south of Atlanta. Waylon now takes care of dozens of acres, all in his dad's memory. One of the most things I remember is there was never a dull moment with him. He was always joking. We was never serious. We just always played around. We got stuff done, but we just always made a good time doing it. Yeah, we got mad at each other, cussed each other out a lot. That's just how it goes. The biggest thing I remember about working with him is you can mess something up, he'd be mad as fire at you. And then when you got home, it's just like it never happened. What happened at work stayed at work, and what happened at the house is different. Waylon's mom says the choice to farm was 100% his own, and the family stressed to him that this was not something that he had to do. I did feel overwhelmed at first because I know how much goes into it. And I was a little concerned if he could do it with being a high school student. So I was really concerned, but we all was going to support him and help him out any way we could. Waylon's family and community both helped him along the way. And for Waylon's first season, his stepdad was there with him every moment. The farm has 60 acres of corn and 80 acres of peanuts. Well, what a touching story. And that's all the time that we have for today. Thanks for watching and from all of us here at Ag Day, I'm Hailey Bickelhoff and I hope you have a great day.