AI Made Everything Expensive (ft. GamersNexus)

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I'm your host, Ed Zitron. subscribe to the newsletter join the subreddit buy a t-shirt all the links are in the notes and here's a joke to kick us off what do you call the ceo of a french ram company that's right emmanuel micron and that's what we're here to talk to steve burke of gamers nexus about today steve welcome back to the octagon emmanuel micron yeah i've had that one in the chain that one before we started yeah because you would have killed me before i read it on the but look we're here to talk about ram so we'll start with a simple question why is ram so expensive right now what is doing this uh i mean the reason it's so expensive is not grounded in reality i think you know it's the the surface of it is that all the data center build out is consuming all the memory and therefore you know price higher because everyone wants it but i do think there's a little bit more to it than that right so from what so when you build chips we're going to really simplify this one for the audience because it's pain in the ass to explain otherwise but when you build chips you have something called a wafer you you have the silicon out and then you etch it using a lithography machine but you can make less high so there's the high bandwidth memory that they use inside gpus and then there's the regular d ram that they use and everything else right is that it's a simplification but is that fairly accurate i think like the the most base level stuff to know is that memory some form of ram or memory is in almost everything a common misconception i'm not sure i think your audience is like fairly technical but a common layperson misconception is that storage is the same as memory they'll use it interchangeably. Storage is like your drive that you, you know, you put data on like photos or whatever. And then memory is, um, is a temporary form of storage, a volatile storage that gets wiped when it's not actively being used when you restart. And when they put stuff in memory, that's where, that's like RAM and such where they like, that's where you put the stuff that you're going to need quickly. Right. Yeah. So yeah, memory is much faster than storage, permanent storage and so it acts as this sort of transactional buffer to help get things to you quickly so memories in phones refrigerators these days cars there's all kinds of different grades of memory and it's it's used in pretty much everything to do some kind of quick like in a car uh maybe you need to retrieve something related to like if there's a built-in map on the screen or something like that or in a refrigerator who the fuck knows honestly but i think this So that you can have a giant, horrible screen on your Samsung fridge. That displays you ads occasionally. Yes, exactly. Yeah. And so, yeah, to go to your wafer count, yeah, there's different types of sort of production for memory. And you'll find DRAM is used in all of it in some capacity for the most part. So you'll find DRAM dies in HBM, like inside of an HBM package. But data center high-end GPUs will use high-bandwidth memory, and basically every consumer device uses something called GDDR, which is just a lower bandwidth, kind of more normal solution that's not as overboard on the performance for a consumer application. But they all kind of come from the same place, which is a wafer. They're all cut from the same place. so right now they're taking up more they they are using more of the how much of that capacity are they actually using to build high bandwidth memory so the stuff that's going in the gpus uh it appears to be an awful lot i mean so i know that the the recent class action lawsuit or complaint i should say that was filed uh notes that the profitability the plaintiff's attorneys claim that the profitability of traditional, like conventional DRAM is greater than the profitability of HBM. That was one of their claims. And yet they sort of argue that, and it seems like their evidence is good, but they argue that why would you shift more and more capacity to producing this lower margin thing, HBM, if the easier thing to make is potentially higher margin? and so it does seem like more of it's shifting over there you know open ai caused that sort of big kerfuffle previously when they claimed 40 of just all dram supply globally but that didn't happen though yeah it didn't happen it was all like basically one of the most insane just an insane story by the way just last year for those of you don't remember open a story came out that open ai was buying 35 to 40 of all the world's dram wafers it never happened yeah but we just talked about it like like we did like it did but it did affect the price it did but here's the question so why is everything so expensive that like is it is it the because are they just jacking the price up i think so i mean so yeah there's a couple things here um i'll lay out like some of the the highlights and we can you can figure out how you want to go through them but sure one of them is the memory industry has convictions, actually, in its past of price-fixing collusion and, as the DOJ dubbed it, cartel-like behavior. So this goes, the early 2000s, there was a bust. 2016, 2018, there was an attempt at a similar lawsuit. In the early 90s, the memory manufacturers were talking about how they thought their competitors were price-fixing and colluding. And so this is a long and storied history where they, And now there's an active lawsuit, punitive class action for price fixing. So there's that antitrust aspect, which that obviously, you know, prices would be higher if you're just doing illegal things to make the prices higher. There's also the sort of physical manufacturing side, which is that to make memory, it's not quick to get another fab online. And the companies seem to sort of signal to each other through earnings reports whether they're going to expand capacity or maintain capacity of their fabs, which are factories for memory. So there's that aspect, which is if there's a real or not, a sudden increase in demand, there's going to be a long latency to react to that with more supply if they even want to. So the current projections are 2028 or 2030 if we're getting more fabs online. the other reason it goes up though is really simple which is that in a server that goes in a data center some of nvidia's newer solutions will use one and a half terabytes of system memory so that's dram they'll use well they use this don't they don't they also use the same ram as we find in smartphones as well yeah lp ddr typically yeah yeah so so grace will use uh i think it's 5x i think it's what they're on yeah i pulled the numbers and it's something like 20 terabytes for an nvl 72 which is a 72 gpu rack yeah so you they do the single blade for the big boy is one and a half terabytes of system memory alone and you know for perspective a consumer desktop computer might have 16 gigabytes with windows these days you probably I want like 32. And they're taking one and a half terabytes for one server solution. But that's just the system memory. They also have other processors on there, like the Bluepoint or Bluefield, I think it's called DPU. It takes 128 gigabytes, if I remember correctly. The GPUs take hundreds of gigabytes to like close to half a terabyte per GPU of HBM. and the HBM has a, there's kind of a yield factor at play where, you know, you can, when you're talking about manufacturing, that means you're also talking yields. How many good products do you get for every bad? And HBM is more difficult to make. If you have a failure in manufacturing, then you're also potentially losing more silicon dyes that could have gone to more consumer devices. And HBM is made by stacking the memory. right so it requires just physically more memory forgive me if that's kind of an apes description no no it's fine yeah so hbm high bandwidth memory is literally just really high bandwidth uh it's kind of like if you were to if you were a city and you wanted to solve a public transit problem and you just built a shitload of i don't know let's take a massive tunnel you build like a bunch of trains. You build a ton of trains for passengers, but you don't have enough tracks to put those trains on. They can't actually get on the track without blocking each other. You haven't really solved your problem. And so high bandwidth is trying to solve that by saying, okay, we've got all this capacity for passengers, which is the memory itself. Now we need something like a bigger road system to actually feed that capacity through to access it. And so HBM tries to solve that, especially because you look at GPUs that might have like 12 plus times the amount of capacity that a consumer GPU would have. And so you don't want to starve the GPU core of the data that sits in the memory by not being able to get it fast enough. And so HPM tries to solve that problem. So yeah, to go back to your point of stacking, high bandwidth memory is physically vertically stacked, as in they take silicon dyes for memory, And they stack them atop each other and then they connect them all together as opposed to consumer memory where it's closer to, there's still layers, but it's closer to a flat plane. Right. But it just means that by virtue of that, it takes up more space in the place where they build the chips. Yeah. Yeah. If you're on a consumer device, then the consumer memory, you'll need more physical area to put the same amount of capacity. whereas with the high-end server stuff, you just stack that capacity vertically. And then it's also, HBM's really significant advantage is that it's very low power comparatively. Right. But just to be clear, it takes up more space on the fabricator itself. Oh, yeah. If you're talking about the fab space, then yes, HBM requires a lot more space for a few reasons in terms of manufacturing area. In terms of like footprint on a product, it's less, but in a fab, it's more. And why is that in the fab? One of the reasons. So there's a few, but one is that HBM requires additional silicon pieces to be able to function. So with GDDR consumer GPU memory, you pretty much you have the memory module. It looks like a black rectangle. And then if you were to use like acid or something to etch away the black plastic part, you'd be left with pretty much a singular silicon die underneath. That's all it is for consumer. For HBM, you also need a logic die. So there's another piece of silicon that interfaces with the memory and the stack of memory. Because you need something to kind of command and control and understand the vertical tower you've got of memory. And then you also need an interposer die, which sits underneath everything. So this is a solution that will sit under your GPU core, which is a very large piece of silicon, and is shared with the HBM stacks. So all of your core and all your HBM is stacked on top of the same. It's called an interposer. It looks like a PCB, and they all communicate through that. So that's another piece of silicon. And so for these reasons alone, there's also others, but these alone, now you're involving more fabs, there's more logistics, shipping things around, and there's more fab or fabrication plant area allocated, even if you're just talking about making, someone's got to make the logic dies, TSMC makes the interposers. Right. There's just more moving parts and it kind of takes up more space. Exactly, yeah. so why so to to my early question so this stuff is obviously lower margin but they seem to be able to sell an absolute shit ton of it so is that potentially why they're doing this that just they know there is insane demand on a level that for a high well i guess they can charge what they want for it as well i'm just having trouble trying to work out what it is they're doing other than just filling their boots. Have you tried asking the chat GPT? No. Okay. I could ask my cat and get an answer I'd respect more. But it's genuinely because it seems that, unless I'm misunderstanding here, that these Micron SK Hynix and Samsung, they're just kind of cranking up the price of regular RAM because they can? I mean, to some extent, yes. I think this is where the price-fixing allegations come into. i don't know if you try if you try to take their side which i really don't want i'm trying i'm trying yeah if you try to i think their argument whether it's for truthful or not but would be we've got this crazy high demand for hbm these are guaranteed customers i can sell terabytes of it to jensen and it's it's one point of contact it all moves quickly and easily and this there's this data center demand right now, and we don't know if it's going to be here forever, but consumers, they're always going to have to buy electronics or whatever. So I'm not exactly sure if that's, to me, it seems like maybe you make some sort of, you assign some value to the B2B relationship over B2C or something. Sure. Maybe, but also, I guess, if they, yeah, I'm not sure. If you make less... But why would that mean that they charge more for regular ram oh as far as why more for regular that part's easy that's just because uh the hbm itself takes the same a lot of the same machines as consumer memory and so if you're making more hbm you're naturally making less consumer uh which i think is where you start seeing the the supply squeeze and the price go up likewise um a single piece of hbm can use up to something, I think it's like, it might be like 32 dies max or something of DRAM. You'll commonly see like four referenced, but a single piece of HBM will take more DRAM dies to build. And so one of the problems is if, let's just say four, if you have a piece of HBM that's got four DRAM dies in it and you have one failure somewhere in that stack or in packaging and assembly, now you've destroyed uh you know four individual pieces rather than if you have a yield failure with a consumer device so you just try one sorry to ask a stupid question what is a die exactly is that just the what we would think of as a stick of ram uh no a die is so so a wafer we'll start the wafer level a wafer is just a disc right it looks like a cd that typically eight or 12 inches and they process it and they pattern it or they literally project a pattern or they lithographically etch a pattern onto the surface of this disk. Once that's done, these patterns, they're called patterns because it's a repeating set of shapes that ultimately form the logic that makes the silicon. And the word dye comes from the process dicing. So with a wafer when they done producing it and patterning it and it basically ready to become a product they need to cut that disc into a bunch of small squares right so it like a big slab that they cut up yeah it's i mean it's like making a pizza with a pizza cutter you know they're doing a pattern that only psychopaths would do on a pizza which is making a bunch of squares and uh and so they cut it into the squares that's called dicing uh and then each of those pieces the squares that yield from that those are the dyes and so if you were to pull up a an image of any gpu typically you'll see one large it's called a monolithic die which means one singular sort of piece of shiny reflective silicon mirror-like finish that's your die and then for memory same exact concept just a lot smaller right so so right okay so there's less space to make regular rams so they just crank up the price that's really that really is it i think that's their entire thing right but i saw micron's earnings and they had 84.9 percent margin so it just kind of feels like they're setting the price to whatever they want it to be you don't I think they need more, don't you? They should get 95%. Well, it's just kind of- 95? Why are you setting it so low? They should get 110% margins. Yeah. No, it's just- It's very frustrating as well because I've read now arguments in favor and against Micron where it's like, oh, Micron got screwed by Apple and consumer electronics companies during the last supply chain crisis because they kind of made a bunch more RAM than they needed to, from what I understand. Like Crimea River, you know? No, it really is. And it seems to be there's this boom and bust cycle in memory where they get a bunch of demand. And then what? So do they build more capacity? Is it that they just order too much RAM and then people cancel their orders? What happened last time? it is cyclical um yeah so it's cyclical i will say right now is nothing like i've ever seen and we spoke to a bunch of companies purchasers of memory like gskill and corsair who sell the sticks of ram that you put in a computer and those guys are telling us on record that um likewise they've never this is not like part of the cycle this is special and uh as for how is it different the difference is how much the difference is the percentage increase it is this time so you know you're looking at like 700 increase in price in some situations in a very short period of time normally cyclically you'll see some ebbs and flows but it might be like back in the day a 50 kit of ddr4 became 85 or 90 maybe even 120 if it's a really bad year you know but you're still at like a little worse than double whereas now a 200 kit of memory is suddenly a thousand to twelve hundred dollars uh and so it's just the the amount of the price increase is what's different and then also um this time the sort of contest for the supply is uh it's it's coming from within In the own industry where the very companies that would be the cause for an increase in sales of consumer supply are now the cause of these insane, unprecedented volume of sales for AI components. 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But it isn't based like, so the 2021 supply chain crisis, chip crisis, was because there was a flood of consumer spending after COVID. Yeah. And that led to a bunch of consumer demand for products and overall spending across the board, but like consumer demand drove them. This one seems different because it's not demand outside of whatever, like psychosis the various hyperscale says. They're not spending a trillion dollars in CapEx really for like, it's not like consumers can't access whatever micropiler. I think, you know, what's interesting is the big three memory makers decided not, I think it was 2022 or three, to bring on more capacity in some of these situations because they were talking about how they got burned by oversupply and sort of following COVID, right? but what's interesting is if you go and look at some of the small suppliers not many of them but there's a couple of small memory makers that make up like less than five percent of the market wind bond nanya are two of them nanya's in uh well headquartered at least in taiwan i don't know where their fab is but they like these two companies as far as i'm aware i was just looking at this this morning uh they increased their their production capabilities at the time when the big three were saying that they weren't going to do it because it's you know they got burned um right is interesting to me because if you're this is the argument the lawsuit makes too if you're a small company i would think you're at the biggest disadvantage the biggest risk to increase your production capabilities with this massive amount of spend if your biggest competitors are saying like this it looks like bad times ahead you know we don't want to spend into this but if you're a small guy like you're at the greatest risk of going under if you fuck up your your cap back right why didn't that this maybe this is a dumb question why didn't them increasing supply allow them to kind of undercut the microns of the world yeah that that one is just because the there's a micron does have a technology advantage so they can make memory that these other guys can't hbm is one of them maybe this is i didn't think about this till now but um maybe there is a very a small part i think but um possibly part of an answer to your question of why hbm that is something that's that other companies are struggling to make successfully in current generations so it's yeah i know only like sk hynix samsung and micron are the ones who can make hbm yeah and the cxmt has also struggled with HBM, and they're a new Chinese memory maker that's actually done really well with DDR5. And so there may be a little bit of a pulling the ladder up after them factor. Well, here's a question as well when it comes to high bandwidth memory. Surely this is going to lead to an oversupply situation regardless, because HBM is used in video cards. God, that's such an anachronistic term in the AI bubble. But it's used in video cards and ai gpus basically right yeah it's very limited there's almost there's effectively zero consumer use case so when the ai bubble bursts where does the high bandwidth memory go uh oh yeah i don't oh okay yeah because i don't talk about the bubble bursting ed well that's the thing i saw samsung is talking about increasing their high bandwidth they're spending like 50 something billion 500 billion dollars across an indeterminate period but like also building an entire new high bandwidth memory like factory yeah and that but i was looking i think i sent you the graph for coming on there was i saw this chart where it's like they were making what a couple hundred million gigabytes of hbm this in 2022 and they're now selling like seven or eight trillion a year yeah so what's crazy is um the hbm bit demand i think i i think i first saw this on semi-analysis if i remember correctly when i'm at the sort of site but the hbm bit demand from nvidia was uh recently projected to exceed all hbm bit demand of all other companies combined from 2025 good and that's just nvidia and uh and again you have more wafer area per bit than with dram consumed that counts yield losses right and so like increasingly as they make more and more of this uh presumably for nvidia's devices you will continue to see consumers really get shafted if there's not new supply online soon and likewise if they're focusing all their efforts and resources on hbm for whatever reason uh who's to say that the new fabs will even make consumer memory anyway right like there's they might just but the thing is if they're all built to make maybe i'm missing something they're building this fabs specifically for high bandwidth memory, but high bandwidth memory is only used really for the thing in the AI bubble. Right. What are they going to do with all this capacity when it's gone? They would switch it over. They'd switch the line. I mean, they would, but it's like I guess they'll just have aren't they just creating a future nightmare? I mean, it's always good to have more capacity for them, I guess. Yeah, I mean, I guess it's good to have more capacity. There's a lot of government money floating around too, right? like micron got a five billion dollar tax break in new york um as part of the uh i guess big beautiful bill but five billion like micron said they're gonna spend 250 billion right samsung and sk hynix have made 2.1 trillion dollars worth of commitments this just feels like it's it's almost like they saw what happened in 2021 and 2023 which ended with all of them doing at least a billion dollars of write-offs and when they were like fuck that we can go bigger yeah well i mean i do think personally i think that they are colluding again i i think they are price fixing um it might be through like a parallelism rather than a literal behind closed doors meaning like we're just going to announce our changes in earnings reports and then our friendly competitors will kind of mirror us and so yeah yeah like it's kind of a prisoner's dilemma like if they don't raise prices the other guy will if they and if they don't build capacity the other guy will they won't get the long-term deals and right yeah and i mean also you know the the wafers themselves i have some interesting numbers i wrote down but um i was looking up when you were asking about hbm i went and pulled up some of the original coverage i did of hbm uh which started to come online or at least was being actively developed somewhere around i don't know 2013 plus or minus a bit for amd gpus so yeah when amd was working on fiji and its fury gpus they they debuted hbm actually for consumer devices. They had HBM on Vega and on a couple other architectures in like the 2015 to maybe 2018 area, plus or minus a year or two. And massively expensive, just like it is today. The power efficiency was great, which is really why they used it, although they were bandwidth starved too. But I pulled up, I had done some reporting at the time where I spoke to a bunch of the people in the know in the industry. and at the time, 2017 or so, 2016 area, the HBM2 memory for one of the devices should have cost around $150 cost for them to buy. And the Interposer in the packaging should have been another $25, $175. And this is old technology now. I'm sure a lot different. But the point of bringing it up is that if you compare sort of time for time and at the same capacity at the time it would cost amd 175 bucks or so to put hbm on its device whereas with gddr memory the non-hbm stuff they would have been at somewhere around like 68 dollars uh so they would be just so i guess the thing is they absolutely would make more money selling dram or sorry gdr like regular people ram it's just that right now they have the business to kind of it's not just shitty it's not these bullshit video cards for loser gamers it's selling um ai gpus to big strong boys yeah right and yes like sam altman and yes the big strong hunky men like dario amadei right right yes yeah he i've never by the way i don't think i've ever seen someone spread so much fear so anxiously as him it's like it's yeah yeah pathetic yeah you also you ever know here's a random thing as well for this question to the listeners and to you as well steve you ever see anyone on you've seen this weird habit of silicon valley people of using ai now to add muscles to guys yes i have seen this at all what's that about one of the weirdest things i've seen in the tech industry's history and there's a lot of weird shit i don't know if it's just well they're they're not used to working for intellectual property at this point they just harvest it so why work for the muscles either well it's just it's really strange like i like i think the the tbpn the technology the blowjob brothers network like they um they um they do it with like dylan patel who's just like a regular sized guy and it's just it's sorry i've just realized that's weird but then i saw someone do it for dario amaday the other day and this is like your body's your body i don't judge people for for like how they look but at the same time is not like a like fifth course of steroids guy like it's just the way it's the weirdest thing i've ever seen well i saw did you see the story just recently of the uh copper thieves stealing shit from data centers too no that that was good average better offline listener there yep yeah they're probably wearing one of your t-shirts it's just oh god no i disavow them yeah the uh i saw there was a title of um of thieves stealing copper from data centers and it's like oh okay i mean it's really i guess there no honor among thieves you know it just thieves stealing from thieves it also inevitable at this point because you make these giant things full of earth metals and then you put them in neighborhoods usually with like like disadvantaged farm neighborhoods or like like distressed towns in Texas You like oh, I wonder what will happen with the other business in the area. Yeah. I wonder what will happen when we screw over all these people and- And like mock them via the media constantly. Anyway, back to Ram. So is this something that's going to start affecting like storage so hard yeah yeah yeah so you mean like actual uh yeah like like solid state drives and the like yes so it's already affecting it um storage is made at the same fabs for the most part as memory with basically the same tools and mostly by the same companies although there's there's like one or two differences but for the most part it's the same people and tools and so definitely one affects the other anyway um but storage in general has it hasn't gone up as violently as memory but it has gone up uh some of the ssds we had bought previously i was just checking this actually for like 90 bucks uh maybe about a year ago are now closer to like 180 190 and jesus christ yeah uh let me pull up a chart here that's yeah this is genuinely like i think i don't know if i'd say i'd do anything that's activism but like i think people just need to know this is ai's fault yes and the worst part is it's not even ai's fault because they need these data centers because they're taking forever to build it's like you can access clawed and chat gpt you don't there's no one no one's like unable to log on because there's not enough data centers nothing's being stopped they're just like no we need to do we need to buy buy the chips need to build the data centers for some reason yeah it's i mean yeah there's not like a queue i mean i guess they're maybe they make the argument of like we're trying to make it better and the models will be more complicated and that requires When's that going to happen? Yeah. The storage, though. So looking at an average price chart for 4 terabytes of solid-state drive storage on VME on PC Part Picker, which averages it, they have the pricing at around, it looks like maybe about $270 in January last year. and now it's somewhere around somewhere around 800 and 900 and that's for what kind of storage that is for four terabytes uh so relatively large capacity which is going to be affected the most jesus christ yeah and this is where this is interesting too because one of the ways you'll see consumers getting shafted that's not as obvious is um some of the modern devices that should be your next sort of you know improvement upgrade on past generations they're actually coming down in capacity so i haven't looked at the exact device names for a while we ran a report a while ago talking about some of the phones and laptops that have shifted from say a prior model of 12 or 16 gigabytes down towards 8 for memory there's decreasing storage capacity as well yeah that's fucking terrible so everyone just suffers here and it's pretty like there's microns sk hynix samsung they could just they could have not done this just to be clear just so they could have sat with like 70 margins they're already colluding anyway in my opinion so yeah they could they could in a different way it's just it's so fucking straight well i mean it's actually no that's not that's not fair this isn't strange at all this is exactly like this is exactly what companies like this too yeah like this it's this kind of vulgar kind of chancerism and their argument from what i understand is well memory is cyclical so we need to fill our boots when we can and if you're calling something vulgar then it's pretty vulgar yes just to be clear i'm as the vulgarist man in tech and that is a word now uh but the thing is though just to be clear that's their argument though though because things are good now they can charge what they want so they can fill their coffers for the future yeah i think so and i mean you see it affecting i think that's that's probably their argument i think on the consumer side too even a company like lenovo which is not a manufacturer of memory but they buy it and they put it in stuff uh i'm not sure if there may be this i don't know for fact but there may be a benefit for some of these companies as well for a few reasons one is there's a lot fewer it kind of reminds me a little bit of COVID when all the stores that were 24-7 all the grocery stores and whatever suddenly stopped being 24-7 and at least where I am not one of them has gone back and I think that the memory capacity kind of equivalent here is this offers a little bit of a reset and so with lower those expectations exactly yeah and now your next upgrade is more exciting and what i noticed with lenovo when i was buying a laptop was uh they had quietly snapped out of existence their 64 gigabyte model memory system memory of the device i was looking at and they only had 32 and i think like is the memory hard soldered onto it as well it is yeah you can also you just can't upgrade you're just stuck that's insane yeah and so i think what happens there for them you know in their favor i might argue well they can't they're having trouble getting supply just like everyone else that's probably true uh but against them if they've got 64 gigabytes of memory because that's just one part of the the total bomb for a laptop they sell they might rather sell two people two laptops at 32 gigabytes right where they can get the markup on the whole thing right rather than one guy a 64 gigabyte laptop where they're only marking it up whatever the hopefully whatever the difference in the memory is um so i think you see some of that here too where there's well they're just going to use it as a chance to reset what people expect and just also prices are probably never coming down right lenovo itself funny enough uh that i was using them in this example just like two weeks ago um at isc said that prices will probably the word they used was never come back down to what they were last year. And so, yeah, I think they're- Truly evil era. Just like a disgusting era full of horrible perverts. Because it's just, it's so frustrating as well, because America has price fixing laws. Yeah. Like we have price gouging laws. Like we have means of doing this. We just don't do it because obviously of capitalism. And they've been enacted, you know, like the DOJ itself. busted these same companies in the early 2000s yeah that was before that's before we had social media for psychopaths to talk about stocks all day now we need to get now we need to we need just a borderline corruption or real corruption in everything that's the only way to get things done these days and i think also there's probably incentive to you know if if you're no administration of any party wants the economy to fail on their watch and i think if you're worried about a bubble pop and especially if maybe spooking investors with the DOJ investigation or something might trigger part of that. 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I'm Yamanika and I'm out. listen to you're the problem with yamanika on the iheart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts but isn't this going to cause just or already is causing hyperinflation within all electronics related products because yeah it seems that these companies are fully dedicated to the graveyard smash of making everything more expensive forever and at some point that will start crushing all consumer electronics yeah i think it will you know for some things that can migrate more to software as a service and hardware as a service i think there's an end game there for some of these companies where uh tell me more i think if it's okay we crushed demand for the gaming gpus market because filthy poor casual gamers can't afford our big strong gpus that we need for data centers you know i think if you crush that market there is potentially an out in the form of cloud gaming or maybe a better example you don't have latency as an issue would just be if you as a company if you're worried about consumers getting systems that are powerful in their hands and doing using llms at home or whatever if that is suddenly out of reach because the memory is too expensive and the gps are too expensive all right i guess they come crawling back to clod or chat gpt um so i do think not everyone's going to be able to to grab that parachute but i think that moving services to cloud-oriented services that you pay for every month uh is a way that they can capture the people which is going to be most of them at some point who can't afford to actually own the full device to do stuff. Cloud gaming sucks. Cloud gaming sucks, but also I don't think that's the only place where I think one of the real if anyone here is genuine about LLMs and AI being a future, I would think at least companies like OpenAI would be worried about LLMs getting too good if they're locally hosted for let's just say the vast majority of basic tasks someone might want uh and by by all the prices of hardware remaining elevated it does kind of keep that at bay a little longer i just i because i understand that and you've said this before the idea that they want to push people towards not owning anything you'll own nothing and you'll love it i think is the phrase um and but at the same time do you think that that's actually their plan or do you think my my version of this is much simpler which is do you think they have one or is this just incredible short terminus thinking yeah i don't think it's the plan i think it's like the fallback uh for the google stadia we all know was a huge success i contributed to the failure of that one uh hey yeah that one uh there are 10 people who must be so angry i'm sure there are dozens of us geforce now um i i had numbers at one point i don't have them currently but uh had a lot of actually i think we talked about it on your show because i pulled up their website yeah however many millions of users and both of us were kind of surprised at it um but yeah i think you know i think gaming is sort of the easy one to point to So I think for a lot of casual users, they might be okay with cloud-connected gaming. But I do think there's more services than just gaming that could be sucked into the cloud. Even just stuff like QuickBooks has been the one I've been ranting about recently. I'm surprised that that isn't already sassed. Well, it basically is because the desktop version, it used to be a buy it once for $300, then it went to 700 and then they went to $1,500 annually for the desktop version and uh you have to log in when you launch it just like adobe software oh good and now they're killing desktop entirely and you have to go to cloud um which i actually i just abandoned it and went to a free tool instead but like the point being yeah i think a lot of these you know these services they do just increasingly go cloud connected but the problem is is cloud connected services still require ram i mean just anyone who's ever used an ai tool that's still in your browser well i mean chrome itself is a hog as we all know and so it's just kind of like if it feels that there's just going to be a point that this escalates to the point that it kills large parts of the consumer electronics industry i mean sony's delaying the next playstation microsoft is increasing the cost the next Xbox while firing all the people who know how it works. Just an evil company. I mean, it's just... The Steam Machine is a great example, too. I love that. I just got one. I fucking love it. Oh, did you really? Wow. I really love it. It's just what I... But the thing is, it's also insanely expensive. Yeah. It's unbelievable. Yeah. It's... Because the Steam Machine, we had talked to them, and the quote they gave us was... amazing when uh i'll paraphrase it to the best of my memory but they were talking about how i asked them how did it work buying from the memory manufacturers like did you get a contract price or how did you know how did you guarantee your memory supply and the answer was there are no contracts and the the valve guy told us uh they're offered a price by the memory supplier in this case the one we got was hynix and if they say no to that price then the quote was they never talk to us again uh which is why i feel like it is cartel like behavior i got some i got some thoughts i don't think i want to share on the record with on that one that is just that i you know what i'm right back around to just i hope these companies suffer like i think the memory companies are evil like that's just an evil way of doing business yeah i mean if it's coercion right because it's like if if the play is i offer you a price you say no fine i'll take my supply and sell to someone i'll never even talk to you again like you're now down to two companies you can buy from right and it's not like and it's not and if they'll never talk to you again it doesn't matter if they build more supply right yeah if you're on their back and they're doing that to Valve as well, who were like royalty within the PC. It's just, this era is just about the companies chitting on the people that made them rich. And it's, you know, the crazy part to me is it's like, Valve is not a poor company. You know, they're private. So we don't know how much they have, but they are definitely a multi-billion dollar company. And Valve is getting bullied by the trillion dollar companies Which are only the trillion dollar companies because of the stock speculation Right Yeah Not like actually but yeah It just it insane to me because it Corsair same thing Corsair has no real power in the purchasing and they're almost a billion dollar market cap. Not quite. I don't know if they've, how far they've fallen, but they were at one point a billion dollar market cap. And at point being like, these aren't nobodies who want the memory and they're struggling to get the memory suppliers to talk to them. They're serious players, and they need a lot of it. And the response is, take it at this price or go fuck yourself, which is crazy to me. I was reading about the long-term agreements that SK Hynix is presenting, and apparently they're considering removing price caps because apparently they do the long-term agreements. Yeah, they do. And then they say, okay, they won't go above this bound so that you don't just get rogered. They're just not doing that anymore, I guess. Roger, it is. I don't think I've seen Roger. Classic British, beautiful British phrase. I was going to say, it was when I took British literature before I dropped out of college is the last time I read that. Yeah, I think in the memory supply, typically contracts, they do set a ceiling. And my understanding is the way the contract works, if you're lucky enough to get one, is that you're offered the supply and you have to buy it or you have to pay a penalty basically yeah take or pay right yeah yeah that's it just feels like the natural end of this is going to be horrifying it's just going to be it's going to be because they're going to be sitting on all this high bandwidth memory and i was having a conversation with a friend of the showcase yesterday and he was he was saying that like well they'll sell it to someone and while i agree on that in theory we're talking about going from a few hundred million gigabytes of hbm to trillions of it so someone is going to be left holding the bag maybe it won't be the memory companies but there's a situation where nvidia or someone else is just sitting on the stack of this crap yeah if if they can't find devices to put it in and they oversupply then it'll be the same type apocalypse we've seen in the past i mean 2016 like typically though this benefits consumers on the crashing side of the wave because you can it becomes commoditized you can get it super cheap um i'm not sure what happens here because one we've already reset the expectations like we're talking about so there's always already been a regression in the technology that'll take a few years to kind of get back to where we were uh but then also whatever crash happens next seems like it's not going to be isolated to the memory industry, right? It seems like it'll be a... I sent you a photo during Computex of NVIDIA's advertisement in Taipei that said, it all starts here. Do you remember what you replied with? No, I do not. You replied with, it, parentheses, next global financial crisis. Yes. Yeah, yeah. It all starts here. It really is, though, because it's like, think about it. If we have just this glut of high bandwidth memory, how many graphics cards do they realistically make? Because when I was saying hundreds of millions of gigabytes, that was back in 2022. So this was the demand for these things for every games console manufacturer, every PC manufacturer, everyone. As of 2022, when the economy was doing a lot better. And they only needed a few hundred million. we could be sitting on arguably the largest supply glut in memory history oh for like a non for like like you can't unbuild that memory right you can't pass it out you can't really there's no way to you would need an hbm device to put it on there's no real consumer hbm devices these days and it's not something you'd spin up fast so yeah if there's like too much hbm you don't really have a lot you could do with it other than i guess sell it for cheaper or something but like at the end of the day you need something to attach it to and um i mean one thing to think about is part of those numbers although i don't think all of it but part of it is that the capacity per device has increased a lot for non-consumer devices since 2022 so some of it is accounted for there where you just put more on a device but then you look at consumer and somewhat notoriously it has remained stuck at 8GB to maybe 16GB for a consumer GPU which 8 is barely even enough to play modern games with any kind of reasonably high texture settings and so you don't have that multiplying effect in consumer It's just in data center, which all that to say, if more supply capacity goes online, if they're able to produce more, but the data center demand slows down or the data center GPU demand slows, then, and they switch back to just consumer DRAM, they're still going to have too much because the consumer devices are, they don't use that much memory. So I don't know, you finally spec them up maybe, but. But you'll just have all of this insane amounts of high bandwidth memory to go. We're just going to get graphics cards with 128 gigabytes of high bandwidth RAM. Just because they need to put it somewhere, right? Yeah, we've got to do something with it. We're just going to have a laptop. And you'll be able to open 17 or 18 Chrome tabs at once. It's going to be incredible. No, I wonder if there's also going to be a knock-on effect of all of this on the used gaming market. Like the used PC market. Well, that's a really common comment. I see people asking about like, oh, surely this is going to be good for secondhand in a few years when they retire all these devices or the bubble pops. I mean, just like right now. I mean, just people won't be buying new devices. Yeah. Well, I mean, on both of those right now, it means that if you go look up RTX 30 series cards from, I don't know, like shit, I think it might be four or five years ago now on eBay. some of them are like within 20 of what they sold for new you know and so it's yeah it's wrecking the used market because it's just like it's not you're paying close to new prices for something that's four years old so that's not good and then on the other side of it none of the data center hardware is useful in consumer there is no second hand use case yeah yeah lp ddr5x is either on some form of server specific cam uh card or is soldered to the board so you can't use that and maybe in china they'll desolder it you know and solder it onto new sticks and sell frankenstein thing but um and then the gpu is it's hbm so it's it's attached to the gpu you can't just you can't just like take it off well this is this is the thing as well when it comes to like this post.com bubble recovery story this is i'm glad you brought that because it's like people like oh yeah they'll just use it for something else it'll be useful infrastructure it's like what useful infrastructure what are we going to do with all these gp it's not you can't run a black well like a gb 300 is well it's a grace and two black wells you've got over a terabyte of different kinds of fucking rams on that i love saying rams um and what you're going to do with that it's not got it's not got display port yeah it's not going to do anything it's still it's built for one thing right maybe a local ai model or whatever but anything reasonable you couldn't do that unless it was in a consumer hardware shell yeah i assume you need like a dishwasher plug for it or the washing machine plug even like yeah you probably need 240 volt um jesus christ people really people need to do some do some actually like reading about this because it's like they need to realize that this can't go anywhere else like this just we're just gonna have racks of these things and it's not like in the future they'll be cheaper to use i think that the that you know if the dot-com era argument of infrastructure was dark fiber or something where the fiber's in the ground. It's just it's not used because all the companies went belly up. Eventually they used it. Maybe that's your argument there. I really agree with you. I don't think it works for this one because the closest thing we have to an infrastructure gain maybe is power. Yeah. The problem of they're not really bringing more online fast enough. And at least currently, it's not helping the prices for the rest of us. like almost everyone's had their power costs go up lately so maybe that would be the advantage if you're like because of data centers we brought back nuclear and we have shit loads of solar and wind and whatever but that's not what we're doing we're playing turbines on the roof you know and i don't know it's also what if the power doesn't what if the power gets built and the demand isn't there it's just there's so many things that could go wrong here and i think people just kind of i think the reason that this is all coming to a head is because we're finally facing the physical problems yeah zero like there's only so much capacity there's only so there's only so much money there's only so much power there's only so much silicon i at some point this all has to break and it might break everything yeah i think um i don't know what the i don't know what the enron moment will be you know i'm not sure where it'll tip uh but it does seem inevitable but i don't know it could be a year it could be several years right like i have no idea it could just it feels like the moment the the vibes shift because the trigger i'm looking for is that capex pullback but what scares me somewhat is the nvidia is the i think what 55 65 percent of high bandwidth memory demand, all for AI GPUs. That just feels like a single point of failure. Yeah, I think NVIDIA, I mean, NVIDIA itself, Jensen Juan himself said of CoreWeave that without NVIDIA, there is no CoreWeave. You know, like if I remember correctly, that was, I'll go dig that up. But they create the circle. NVIDIA is part of the circle. And it's... Yeah, if anything happens to them, then all of it falters. And they are a kin maker. Yeah, but they're also going to be the king loser, I think, by the end of this. It's just so fucking... As a gesture, I guess. Yeah, it's so fucking frustrating as well because i feel like if we'd have slowed this down in 2024 we could have avoided this but everyone was like no we need to go further and harder and faster and spend even bigger and more amounts but one final question surely with the increase in high bandwidth like actually maybe it's two questions in one the memory companies are kind of have nvidia over a barrel too don't they in the sense that NVIDIA doesn't really have alternatives but NVIDIA is also heavily involved in the R&D for all this new memory so like they were involved in the R&D for GDR7, G5X and for the new HBM options and so like over a barrel I feel like I think you could make that argument but I also think that NVIDIA is more likely pulling a lot of those strains despite being the customer to very few suppliers right but at the same time doesn't this just mean that nvidia's prices are going to get linearly more expensive the longer this goes on i yeah i do think i do think the prices go up i mean we're you know with nvidia on the consumer side too you can look at that as a gauge they were supposed to launched their refresh of consumer gpus like a year ago or something almost and um not quite a year ago at close and uh like rumors were end of 2025 then it was first quarter 2026 and then the rumors were they were all canceled and the reason for that is because this particular type of refresh they call the super series normally you see an increase in memory capacity at roughly the same price or you see a decrease in price at the same capacity and right now neither of those things is possible and so nvidia hasn't shipped the card it may come out at some point but for now they've delayed that indefinitely and so to your point it does start to self-cannibalize right we're like they are the reason that their own refresh for consumer can't come out and also but regular the cost of the things they're already making the current generation will go up yeah oh the current generation has already gone up in terms of like real world pricing and uh officially they haven't changed their msrp from launch you know but it's i mean a lot of this stuff the 5090 is i guess technically sometimes you can get them at msrp but more often they're like two to i mean like the ai gpus oh yeah i mean that i would um just like yeah all of them will go it It just feels at some point the money's going to run out, and the longer it goes, the worse it will get. Well, and then you get the weird leaseback stuff, right, like with meta and the GPU capacity. Oh, yeah, and all the SPV shit. What a horrible era. Truly awful. And I think that's a great place to end it for us. Steve, where can people find you? What are you working on at the moment? I know you have some sort of campaign, a dystopian campaign you want to? Yeah, we do have our AI dystopia coverage we're doing. And we have a, we're trying something new. We do these documentaries that are like three hours long and we're trying something new and doing a short one. So we're doing two 30-minute ones coming up. And one of them is on the hard drive cartel, which is pretty interesting. Nice. And the other one is on this memory class action lawsuit. We read through all 118 pages of the filing and did a bunch of history research. So those are coming up within the next week on Gamers Nexus. And we'll get the links in there. I don't know what I'm going to be doing next week on the show because I'm recording this a little early. I'll have a monologue for you on Friday, though. I have been Ed Zutron. This is Better Offline. You know where to find all my stuff. It'll be in the links. Thank you so much for listening. Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matt Ossowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at matasowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com. You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media For more from Cool Zone Media Visit our website, coolzonemedia.com Or check us out on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts Hey Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. The dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form. We're launching Podlandia AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song. Well, I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia, AAO Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up, y'all? It's your girl, Sam Jay. And we're the hosts of Everyone Watches Women's Sports, a new podcast from together. We're breaking down the biggest headlines, the viral moments, and the stories everyone's talking about across women's sports. From game-changing performances to culture-shifting conversations, we'll give you our takes, our debates, and a few laughs along the way. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to Everyone Watches Women's Sports on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. Every week, the news gets worse, the world gets crazier, and Yamanika is here to tell whoever's responsible, you're the problem. Do you know I just found out who Sidney Sweeney was? If he got a bunch of women, then I should have a bunch of men. Do better or do less so I don't have to do so much. I'm Yamanika, and I'm out. Listen to You're the Problem with Yamanika on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. My first guest is Karis Hilton Shakira Luke and Yerin We have surprises Many surprises Welcome to the Sweet 305 podcast Where the group check comes to life What up? You're the only person I know that loves a yellow starburst It's lemonade This is Sweet 305 Here, oversharing is encouraged Listen to Sweet 305 with Lele Pons on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.