虎嗅·商业有味道

00后炒存储:一个月走完老股民十年心路

12 min
Jul 20, 20262 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

This episode features four Gen Z investors sharing their experiences trading storage sector stocks during a volatile market period in 2024. The narratives contrast different risk management approaches and psychological responses to market swings, revealing how younger traders navigated a 30-40% sector correction while some older investors panicked.

Insights
  • Gen Z investors demonstrate superior emotional discipline during market downturns compared to older retail traders, attributing success to avoiding panic selling and maintaining conviction in fundamental thesis
  • Successful trading in volatile sectors requires distinguishing between temporary corrections and trend reversals; investors who added positions during dips outperformed those who sold at losses
  • Position sizing and profit-taking discipline matter more than timing or sector selection; investors who failed to take gains at 20-30% returns often watched positions turn negative
  • Following influencer analysis without independent research and risk management frameworks leads to significant losses; AI-generated investment advice proved unreliable and sometimes fabricated
  • The storage sector boom was driven by supply chain tightness (DDR5, HBM, memory pricing) and AI/data center demand, creating a genuine fundamental opportunity despite sector-wide volatility
Trends
Gen Z retail investors showing higher risk tolerance and longer holding periods than millennial traders, challenging stereotypes about younger investor behaviorStorage and semiconductor sectors experiencing cyclical boom-bust patterns driven by supply chain dynamics and AI infrastructure demandShift from passive index investing to active sector rotation strategies among younger retail investors in Chinese marketsAI-generated investment recommendations gaining traction among novice investors despite accuracy and ethical concernsIncreased focus on semiconductor supply chain tightness as investment thesis driver, particularly DDR5, HBM, and memory pricing dynamicsGrowing awareness among retail investors of the importance of profit-taking discipline and position sizing over market timingChinese domestic chip companies gaining investor attention as alternatives to foreign competitors during geopolitical tensionsData center and AI infrastructure buildout creating sustained demand for memory and storage products beyond cyclical peaks
Companies
SK Hynix
Memory chip manufacturer whose DDR5 price doubling and supply shortage triggered investor interest in storage sector ...
Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation
Chinese memory chip manufacturer mentioned in context of IPO and potential market impact on storage sector valuations
People
韭菜 (Leek)
22-year-old investor with 480% total return over 3.5 years, shared experience of missing major gains by being too cau...
天成一土
22-year-old finance student who turned 10,000 yuan into significant gains through disciplined sector rotation and ave...
给我60好不好
22-year-old former risk-averse investor who experienced 60% drawdown before learning profit-taking discipline and sec...
小包
21-year-old novice investor who started with 500 yuan, experienced AI-generated investment advice failures, and achie...
Quotes
"身边大多数人亏钱就是喜欢动,总想高抛低吸,那样叫投机不是投资"
韭菜First investor narrative
"投资这件事说到底比的不是谁胆子大,而是谁能在涨的时候管住心,在跌的时候管住手"
天成一土Second investor narrative
"业绩逻辑没变,政策环境没变,变的是情绪"
天成一土Second investor narrative
"赚了就得跑,等稳定下来我可能会再进场,但不会再锁死某个板块,哪个有肉吃就跟哪个"
给我60好不好Third investor narrative
"全球内存供应链产能吃紧,内存一旦紧缺,后面大概率要涨价"
小包Fourth investor narrative
Full Transcript
00后炒存储,一个月走完老股民十年新路本文来自微信公众号表外表里,编辑曹冰玲作者陈子杰,陈丽化,授权虎秀APP发布刚走出史诗节行情的存储赛道转眼间人心涣散,哀嚎遍野芯片龙头业绩预增1099%换来的却是单日近8%的阴线魔族场也泥沙俱下不是一次跌停,就是扑街跳水 上半年一点点攒下来的收益短短十余日内在动辄30%40%的回撤中吐了回去 然而在老股民们慌忙割肉离场之际 一批00后股民却表示自己心态很稳 大涨阶段 他们有人单支票赚17万 收益率170% 有人进场一个月3万本金滚出7000福营 哪怕只是用零花钱养鸡 也赚了几个月生活费 大跌来临时 他们要么全身而退 要么保持格局 坚定持有 既没有被韩国ETF熔断下退 也没有被长新存储IPO抽血的恐慌裹挟 当然 最关键的是 他们还没开始亏 以下是他们的投资故事 第一个故事分享人是22岁的韭菜 本金7.5万 投资三年半 我的总收益率已超480% 最成功的一笔就是存储 福盈大概17万 对存储的关注 起源于去年海力士DDR5涨价一倍 还供不应求的消息 这让喜欢投资低估值高技术壁垒公司的我 嗅到机会埋伏进了一家公司 那是国内唯一做HBM晶圆缺陷检测设备的企业 与海力士深度绑定 股价也在低位 理论上正是肥美时刻 但我忽略了出货量太小 也撑不起业绩想象力 叠加关税站等影响持有半年回报仍只有10% 最后匆匆卖出错过了2025下半年股市的大行情 一起踏空的还有一家国产芯片龙头 我曾在80元每股时买过 后来涨到200元 怕高就没再碰 结果股价奔着300去了 我终于明白自己太注重技术壁垒 实际上行业龙头才是风口上真正吃大肉的那一批 思路扭转过来后 我一直等待入场时机 今年2月 海外存储三巨头退出低端市场 这家龙头正好填补利基型存储市场空缺 我添了几分信心 真正决定出手 是一季度财报后 董密默认全年利润是一季度的四倍 对比当时250元的股价 市盈率才20多倍 属于严重低估 我果断行动 重仓一半砸了10万进去 没想到持仓才是真正考验人的时候 每一冲突爆发后我的账户一度浮亏10% 三四月份模组厂轮番暴涨 5 6后来620又接了回来这次仓位只打了三分之一毕竟现在已经很贵了而且手机电脑厂商已经对存储涨价不满数据中心市场又够不着后续还有很长的路要走这几天大A走出独立行情我既庆幸提前降低了仓位也为损失难受但还是会坚定持有身边大多数人亏钱就是喜欢动总想高抛低吸那样叫投机不是投资 第二个故事分享人天成一土22岁7月上半月我的账户只红了两三天6月份赚的一万多快要亏完了但我不慌 今年3月份我揣着一万元积蓄正式进场理由很简单作为学金融的学生课堂模拟投资大赛得分再高也抵不过真金白银去市场里走一遭事实确实如此 I went to see it, and hit the pair of investors 10% of the wealth index, and I'll see it The growth rate of the money goes out I'm trying to think they're hard to do it The thought is that look that good! So, I get right now. I'm trying to go for the top 50 See you, it's a bit better If you've got any cash, more money And the start is low, but the amount of money will lose I'm not able to take it Do you want to add some oil, more money More focus! I'm putting all the power between my side and I'm getting to the base of the stock of financial prices 慢慢把收益拉到了18% 然后我做了一个决定 再加5万 彼时板块拉升已经开始吃力 但我想着芯片半导体国产替代 CPU光模块算力基建 人工智能应用落地 哪个不是长线逻辑 震荡反而是慢慢捡筹码的机会 结果分批加仓到一半 新一轮猛跌袭来 我的账户收益率从22% 实现跳水到1.22% 网上很多人扛不住跑了 可我不甘心业绩逻辑没变 政策环境没变 变的是情绪 我咬着牙补仓 以半导体设备为核心 CPU为稳健收益来源 创业版AI为突击 科创50做防守 终于在6月中旬等到科技板块一波主声浪 连着涨了十几天 收益率回到了21% 经历过两轮大起大落 我算是摸清了科技板块的脾气 It may be a half month, but the red-fifth is a 2 days, the wave will be very strong, so the 7th year I fell in my heart, and I still have a lot of money. In my opinion the last year the money is enough to get out of the money but I think the money is going to be able to buy 6 眼看着半导体从挣20个点变成负的也煎熬 回头想想6月底那波高点 我要是学会止盈 如今能从容许多 所以我不再追加本金 把精力花在琢磨怎么卖上 强制自己每周复盘一次仓位 把表现不好的基金轻掉 把资金往更强势的方向集中 投资这件事说到底比的不是谁胆子大 而是谁能在涨的时候管住心 在跌的时候管住手 第三个故事的分享人是22岁的给我60好不好 一分都不多要 从正30%跌成负30% 我的高风险投资第一课 代价极其昂贵 我不是股市新人 达尔在基金公司实习时就开始做投资了 但作为一名极度风险厌恶者 我只敢买比余额保零钱通收益高一些的债基和定期 在舒适区待了两三年 赚到了一小笔启动资金 去年读研后 我忽然想换种活法 拿出一点仓位试水黄金 正好赶上年初一波暴涨 收益最高冲到30% 跟以前债机2% 3%的收益相比简直天壤之别 可惜心里光顾着美完全没有止盈的概念 一路拿到4月 最后血亏出局 被狠狠叫一番后 我开始疯狂补课 天天看网上分析趋势 讲主线 跟着两位靠谱的博主转战商业航天和里矿 一进去就赚了11%和20% 然而贪心又出来作祟拿到五月底都没卖大亏16%和8% 那时我已经跌麻了听到博主斩钉截铁的说六月的主线是存储心底燃起一丝希望 去看了其他分析从美国到韩国都在讲算力和AI逻辑是通的 我心想反正拿着也是亏不如跟着转到科技板块 转到存储还是在跌本就惨淡的账户雪上加霜我不甘心一路加仓到14000元每次加仓都在骂自己再也不买了回本就跑但投资就是跌的时候嫌多涨的时候嫌少端午节前我在存储上的收益从负10%回到了2.3%想要卖但看到光模块CPUPCB都涨了30%又觉得两个点实在不够看再等等那阵子存储跟疯了似的一天能涨近1000我的赋养很快攀升到了5000元 I going to go to the next year如果当时不跑如今又要大跌几个点心里一阵后怕我以前笃信长期主义觉得基金就该拿几十年现在明白了在A股赚了就得跑等稳定下来我可能会再进场但不会再锁死某个板块哪个有肉吃就跟哪个 第四个故事分享者小包21岁 我刚开始养鸡就被AI带坑里去了 作为纯小白 我起初连怎么选基金都不知道 第一反应是问AI按他说的投了一个多月 账户绿多红少 我意识到不对劲翻出历史业绩和走势图 才发现AI推的是护身300这些宽基指数 成分冗杂 长得慢跌得凶更离谱的是其中三四只推荐理由里的数据原始公告里根本找不到全是AI编的起步就栽个大跟头有点晦气但我也没太慌毕竟本金就500元亏也亏不到哪去没想到真正的打击还在后面等着我我记得很清楚4月7日全球股灾那天我下午没课一觉起来天都塌了700元本金单日亏损超过了100元从未遭遇如此剧烈回撤的 I was surprised to see the market. 涨到心理价位就跑 跌了就分批补 每周复盘总结 去年5月随着市场情绪修复 我分批加仓前期超跌的科技类ETF一点点填平了前期亏损 但真正让我实现收益跃升的是今年初的一条新闻 全球内存供应链产能吃紧 作为男生 我平时也会关注电脑硬件 知道内存一旦紧缺 后面大概率要涨价 于是从一两百块的小仓位开始买进 先观察涨幅再决定去留 事实如我所料 5 6月份存储板块连续拉了几波 6月初连跌 我判断是回调不是转向 果断加仓 收益率拉到40% 虽然7月大幅回调 但我至今仍在存储上保持盈利 这也是我始终没跑路的原因 目前我的本金为2000元 收益率在50%左右 I still look at the存储 AI development needs to be a lot of存储 The business and earnings are all in This business is not a炒 concept It's a real thing But in the not-sust-up situation I will continue to wait for the signal to continue to wait for the next step and to look for the next step