Luka Doncic ‘might not win a Championship’, NBA King of the Hill, Bills under 10.5 wins?
92 min
•Feb 24, 2026about 2 months agoSummary
First Things First covers NBA playoff contention analysis, including debates over Luka Doncic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the San Antonio Spurs' championship potential, and the inaugural King of the Hill rankings of 36 NBA players. The show also discusses NFL over/under predictions for Ravens, Bills, and Eagles, plus updates on Eagles WR A.J. Brown's future.
Insights
- Young, athletic teams with deep benches (OKC, San Antonio, Detroit) are better positioned for playoff success in today's spacing-heavy NBA than traditional superteam models
- Ball-dominant, high-usage playing styles historically struggle to win championships; Luka's dominance may limit team chemistry compared to SGA's more balanced approach
- Availability and injury management are becoming critical evaluation factors for star players in playoff projections, particularly for players like Joel Embiid
- Coaching tree affiliations and offensive system fit matter significantly in QB evaluation; Sean Mannion's Kyle Shanahan lineage is viewed as a positive for Eagles offense
- Trade deadline timing and cap structure create strategic windows for teams to reset rosters; Eagles face a June 1st deadline decision on A.J. Brown
Trends
Shift from superstar-dependent teams to balanced, five-man offensive systems as winning formula in modern NBAIncreased scrutiny on defensive effort and two-way play as differentiator between elite and contending playersYoung franchise building prioritizing youth, athleticism, and defensive versatility over veteran star acquisitionsQuarterback evaluation emphasizing system fit and coaching tree pedigree over raw talent in NFL offseasonPlayer availability and injury history becoming weighted equally with performance metrics in championship contention modelsTrade market for star players shifting toward draft capital and positional flexibility rather than one-for-one star swapsDefensive rating and team spacing metrics increasingly used to predict playoff success in NBA analyticsVeteran minimum signings and role player depth becoming more valuable than max contract stars in competitive windows
Topics
NBA Championship Contention AnalysisLuka Doncic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ComparisonSan Antonio Spurs Playoff PotentialVictor Wembanyama Rookie Impact AssessmentKing of the Hill NBA Player RankingsNFL Over/Under Win PredictionsBaltimore Ravens 2025 Season OutlookBuffalo Bills Coaching Change ImpactPhiladelphia Eagles A.J. Brown Trade ScenarioCleveland Browns Quarterback CompetitionKevin Durant 2028 Olympics ParticipationMayweather vs. Pacquiao Rematch AnalysisNBA Playoff Chemistry and Ball DominanceDefensive Rating as Championship PredictorNFL Draft Strategy and Quarterback Development
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Streaming platform hosting Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rematch on September 19th
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Sponsor of afternoon headlines segment
People
Luka Doncic
Dallas Mavericks star debated as potential non-championship winner due to ball-dominant playing style
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC Thunder guard positioned as superior team-builder compared to Luka despite similar age and talent
Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs rookie discussed as potential top-3 player in league and championship contender
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets MVP ranked as consensus best player in league on King of the Hill
Chris Paul
Recently retired NBA player appeared on Mello's podcast discussing Luka vs. SGA comparison
Kevin Durant
Phoenix Suns star expressed interest in competing for fifth Olympic gold medal in 2028
Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens QB discussed as key factor in over/under 10.5 wins prediction for 2025
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills QB analyzed for over/under 10.5 wins with new coaching staff and injury concerns
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles QB discussed amid A.J. Brown trade speculation and offensive coordinator change
A.J. Brown
Eagles WR facing potential trade as relationship with team deteriorates despite Super Bowl win
Shedeur Sanders
Cleveland Browns QB prospect facing competition from Malik Willis and Ty Simpson in offseason
Derrick Henry
Ravens RB discussed as potential final elite season before age-related decline
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks PG ranked in top-10 MVP candidates on King of the Hill
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers SG ranked in top-10 MVP candidates alongside Brunson
Floyd Mayweather
Boxing legend set for rematch with Pacquiao on Netflix September 19th at age 49
Manny Pacquiao
Boxing legend facing Mayweather rematch 11 years after 2015 fight at age 47
Nick Sirianni
Philadelphia Eagles coach gave philosophical response about A.J. Brown's future with team
Sean Mannion
Eagles new offensive coordinator from Kyle Shanahan coaching tree expected to boost offense
Mac Jones
Patriots QB discussed as potential trade candidate to Atlanta or Minnesota
Kirk Cousins
Falcons QB officially released and discussed as potential free agent landing spot
Quotes
"I think now, I think, Nick, it's on the table that Luka never wins a championship. I'm not predicting that. This is not Chris Broussard saying, Luka's never going to win a ring. But it is, a year ago, I would have said there's no way he's not getting a championship in his career."
Chris Broussard•Mid-episode discussion on Luka Doncic
"We haven't seen a one-man show win a championship. Wilt Chamberlain's years, two years he won the championship, he didn't lead the league in scoring. Jordan, when he was averaging 35 and 37 a game, he didn't win the championship."
Chris Broussard•Analysis of ball-dominant playing styles
"I can't guarantee how anything is going to play out into next season. I'm thinking I'm going to be the coach next season, but you can't guarantee anything past tomorrow."
Nick Sirianni•On A.J. Brown's future with Eagles
"Heck yeah, I want to play. I want to still prove I can help the team win. I feel like I'll put my name in the hat."
Kevin Durant•On 2028 Olympics participation
"I just think this style of play, and is Luka capable of playing a little differently? A little differently. Just give me some action when you don't have the ball in your hands."
Chris Broussard•On Luka's playing style limitations
Full Transcript
Live from New York, well, I got good news and bad news. I mean, the good news is two-thirds of the show is here and probably 75% of the staff. Yep, everybody's back here except Dusty and Nick. We're really trending towards having the full team here. But now we have an update because it's foggy in San Francisco, I just heard. Fuck out. It's just soft. It's just soft. The violence? What do you think? They closed the airport. We have family members of staff who've flown in from different countries. And Nick can't get here from foggy San Francisco. You're going to take him into different. We all know, Nick. We all know what's happening. Ireland and San Francisco are different routes. Just before we move on, you didn't play cards or anything yesterday. Of course he did. No. That's where he's heading. I guarantee you he's headed to a card game. As long as you didn't do it last night. Did you play cards last night? Yes. I'm stuck at the airport. Artichoke Joe's is right around the corner. What do you want me to do? First hour, first things first. Today, Ravens predictions over under 10.5 wins for Lamar. The surprising optimistic take from someone on the show. Meanwhile, philosophical Sirianni on display regarding A.J. Brown. Is it time to just end this loveless marriage? It's just enough. That's a good way to put it. It's just too much. It's like, I'll save it for the show. It's just the tease. And finally, the season premiere of King of the Hill, not the show, the segment, featuring 36 players. I'm excited for this. I actually thought this was so good, I had problems poking holes. in it. Are you serious? Yeah, because I didn't. Chris Broussard, Nick Wright, I thought you did a great job on the thing of the hell. I thought it was excellent. Brew didn't. Of course. I'm working hard, just like I was during our off week when you guys were out getting tanned, and now I'm getting bullied by the two. Again, you're not supposed to work on your off week. Right. You don't get credit. You know, it's like if the Knicks called a timeout, and you're there getting extra jumpers. Don't count. We would not want, like, hey, I I was out there working on my game. Well, we were trying to draw a play. Stay ready, never need to get ready. Well, obviously, you know. That's the whole theory behind it. Okay. We start in Detroit. Spurs win their ninth game in a row. Wemby goes for 21, six blocks. Cade bottled up by Stephon Castle. Here's Wemby postgame. I don't think that's a night where we learn the most things about ourselves, but it's definitely a night where we confirm progression and confirm potential as well. But that was a good test. I have some quiet confidence there. Spurs this season, they can beat the best teams. 4-1 against the Thunder, 2-1 against the Rockets, 1-0 against Denver, 3-1 against the top three teams in the East. the only loss being the NBA Cup, Brew. Are you starting to believe that the San Antonio Spurs can win the title? Yes, absolutely. And I actually think last night may have been a finals preview. I have more confidence that Detroit will get there than San Antonio. Obviously, Spurs have a tougher road. But that was a great game, very physical, good test for the Spurs because Detroit is maybe the most physical team in the league. Too much or? Too physical? From Pistons to Spurs, it felt like. Well, you're saying? It just felt like they were almost like just trying to test Wemby and push him around. Oh, yeah, they were. They were. And he ended up adjusting. He adjusted and had a big game, 21-17-6. But that was a good test. But, yes, bottom line is I think the Spurs can win it all. Last year, of course, I was hesitant about OKC. I didn't think they'd win it because they were so young. They were youngest team in the league. Spurs aren't that young. They've got some veterans in De'Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, who won a championship with Golden State. So most of their guys are younger, but they do have some veterans. But today's game, Nick, is more geared toward youth. Like, we all know the floor is spread. So teams that have youth, energy, athleticism, deep benches, like we saw with OKC, like Detroit, like San Antonio, these are teams that can thrive in today's game. So I do think you may see younger teams have more playoff success in the way the game's played now than the way it used to be. As far as depth, San Antonio has eight players, eight averaging 10 or more points. That's crazy. All right. And so they have it all. They obviously have a superstar go-to guy in Wemby. They've got other guys that can score, create their own shot in Stephon Castle, in De'Aaron Fox, not to mention a few other guys. They shoot the three well, so the floor is always spread. I know their percentage is like middle of the pack, about 34%. But they shoot it fairly well, enough to have that floor spread all the time, which opens up the driving lanes, not only for Wimby, but for the other guys I mentioned, Castle and Fox. Defensively, they're third in the league. Like, there's nothing they don't have except if you want to say playoff struggles or, you know, playoff losses. But I don't – OKC didn't really have that last year. They had it against Dallas the year before. But I actually think they're very capable of winning the championship this year. So they check all the boxes you mentioned, Brew, and they are in the mold of the Thunder. Yep. Like to use what has become almost a cliche term at this point, if we are in the weak link era rather than the super team era, they don't have an obvious weak link. They have one MVP caliber super-duper star like the Thunder did, and then two other really good players who might one day be stars in their own right in Fox and Castle or might be star adjacent, similar to Chet and Jada, but are not superstars, perennial All-NBA guys. And as you said, excellent offense, even better defense. But this is really, KW, a question about Wimby. And asking Wimby to make the finals and win a championship in his first ever playoff appearance would be wild. And it would be not quite unprecedented, but close to it. So here is, since the merger, the full list of Hall of Famers or league MVPs to win a championship in their first playoff run. Manu was, you know, not the best player on the team. Michael Cooper and McHale, not the best player on the team. Magic had Kareem. So, Bill Walton. Kareem was MVP that year, too. Yeah. Right. Exactly. So, the only guy who was the clear, even though Magic won finals MVP, the only guy who it was, my team, I'm the best guy, is Bill Walton. And so, you're right. The Thunder didn't have a lot of playoff, you know, failures, the long road. But it wasn't Shea's first ever playoff game, which is what this will be for women, first ever playoff run. That's the thing that gives me the most pause, bro. No, look, that's fair. For context, that Walton team, Portland, it was their first time in the playoffs together. They were the youngest team to win a championship before OKC last year, I believe. And so there are a lot of similarities with them and this Thunder team. And look, you're right. And the reason that guys have had to go through playoff nightmares or struggles, whatever you want to call it, before winning championships is because a seven game series is harrowing. Like it's tough to see the same team, seven straight games early in the series. They know all your plays. You know, all their plays. It gets physical. It gets chippy. It gets mentally exhausting. And so that is tough. And that will be a challenge for Wimby. But I'm not necessarily predicting them to win it. But I definitely think they are a legitimate contender and could win it all this year. Go ahead, Nick. So if they were to. So I built this graphic. Well, Josh built this graphic for Brew at my request. because this is, I believe, the pretty consensus, 12 greatest players ever, and what playoff run it took them to win their first title. Obviously, Russell and Magic, it was their first one. Russell is, that's such, you know, it's an eight-team league. It's a different era, obviously, and the Celtics had been a great team prior to Russell getting there. Magic, we mentioned, had Kareem. If they were to do it, KW, then I would move to Brew's side of the table on the GOAT potential piece of this. I mean, in the modern era, we've never seen Magic again, but Magic had, at that point, six-time league MVP in his prime as a teammate. And again, this isn't career year. This is playoff run. Like, Jordan and LeBron, six times they didn't win a championship making the playoffs before they won it. The guys who won it, you know, Bird was, you know, four-year college player and Duncan had David Robinson. It would just be Brew so special just to make the finals, much less to win the championship for Wimby. Yeah, I'm surprised that you would have to see that to say he's got GOAT potential. I'm not saying he's going to be the GOAT. I'm just saying the potential is there. I don't have to see him win the championship this year to believe it's there. Okay. All right. When are they playing? They're going for win number 10 in Toronto tomorrow. We're going to move on and talk about recently retired Chris Paul. He joined Mello's 7 p.m. in Brooklyn podcast, which featured an abundance of red milk crates in a comparison of Luca and SGA. Hey, take a listen. Luka Doncic versus Shea Gilgis-Alexander. Who runs the one? Shea. Oh, he didn't even think about that. Love to be in the gym. He going to do all the work and taking care of his body. And I think that year that we played together, he also started to see that defense matters, right? So you ain't got to be a lockdown defender or whatnot, but when you play in defense for your team, your teammates just want to see that the stars actually try actually try on defense okay your reaction that's also his guy he's right I mean I'll be surprised if if Nick or you disagree with this but and this is not a slight on Luca who is legitimately great and outstanding but I would definitely take Shea over Luca just to build a team I'd rather have him on my team and what Chris was talking about defense obviously that's Luca's weakness but SGA is not just a guy out there trying he's not Steve Nash or Steph Curry who puts forth effort and you give him points for that SGA is a legitimately top tier defender he's 11th in the league in defensive rating individually He is only one of two starting guards in that list of top 11 defenders as far as rating in the league. The other one is Cason Wallace, who's his teammate, who is kind of a starter. I mean, he started most of this year, but that's because Jalen Williams has been out there. That's a lot of the reasons. So SGA, he's been near the top of the league in steals the previous two years. not as much this year, although earlier he was in the lead for steals. So he's a great defender in addition to all he does offensively. And he's just easier to play with. He doesn't, you know, he's more efficient as a scorer than Luka is as far as his field goal percentage from two, from three. He doesn't dominate the ball. Like when you got one guy that creates everything for everybody, everybody, himself and everybody else, that can be tough. Other players, it's harder for them to play at their maximum capability. You don't have that issue with SGA. And so I just, obviously he's won a championship, but that's not even why I'm picking him over Luka. And you can argue, Nick, if you want to say Luka is better, Luka's certainly more spectacular individually on the offensive end. There's no doubt about that. But as far as winning games and building a team, I would definitely rather have SGA. So here, listen, here's my question. Is it that, because everything you said, Brew, is fair, but what's also fair is the last guy to beat the Thunder in a series was Luka. That we are 21 months removed from Luka's team playing Shea's team, Luka winning in a season when he averaged 34-9-10 for the year. And then Luka, a week later, thoroughly outplaying Anthony Edwards in the Western Conference Finals. And I know right now Luka's stock seems to be down. But here, KW, let me ask you this. And I know you hate these games, but just play along with me. Here we go. No, I'm just saying, Do you think the Thunder wouldn't have won the title last year if Luka was in place of Shea? Because Bruiser, it's hard to build a team around. They wouldn't play the same way. If Luka was dribbling the ball the whole time and creating every shot for every player, they wouldn't play the same way. Well, that's interesting. If Luka wants to play like SGA, but SGA has got a high usage rate too. It's not like SGA doesn't like to dribble the ball. He shoots it about 20 times a game, but he doesn't over-dribble it like Luka. And don't you guys, though, agree when you're saying the type of team you want to build around Luka is the team Presti has built around Shea? Like guys who can defend, guys who can shoot, youth. And I just feel like if you flip-flopped them, the Lakers wouldn't all of a sudden be much better. The Thunder wouldn't all of a sudden be much worse. And Shea is a much, much, much better defender. Luka is a much, much, much better passer and rebounder. And they both are elite scorers. They both are 30-point-a-game scorers. I just, it is hard to say the guy who hasn't won an MVP and hasn't won a championship is better than the guy same age, even though Luka's a tiny bit younger, has. But I just feel like right now their KW, you know, their Q rating or their PR is, Luka's is at an all-time low for him and Shea's is at an all-time high. I think I usually dislike trading guys and playing hypothetical teams, but I think you make a fair point. So we kicked this around in the meeting. We're going to save it for a full probably segment later on, but I did want to just take your temperature on what we discussed. Are you flirting with the idea that SGA might have more titles in his future and Luca might not? Oh, yeah. And again, this is not a slight on Luka. Luka is phenomenal, and he's clearly already a Hall of Famer. But I think now, I think, Nick, it's on the table that Luka never wins a championship. I'm not predicting that. This is not Chris Broussard saying, Luka's never going to win a ring. But it is, a year ago, I would have said there's no way he's not getting a championship in his career. I think it's possible that he does it now because you and I have talked about this off the air. San Antonio is only going to get better. OKC is probably just going to keep getting better. And that's not to mention growth among other teams. And Luka, he's maybe asked that he's in good shape this year. Maybe he's going to have to get in better shape because as he's getting older, it's going to be I think it's just going to be challenging for him to win. So here's why I have a, listen, I think they are super behind the eight ball from an organizational standpoint. You guys know I'm probably of the three of us the most down on the Lakers management and infrastructure. And I think it's going to take some time. Like the gap between Presti and, you know, Palenka and, you know, Linda Rambis and the Lakers brain trust is pretty massive. and so I think that's going to take some working to do by the Walters group. But here's why, KW, I have a hard time swallowing that. I think you, and this is your favorite part of the show, when I mention Elgin Baylor. Of course. I think you really have to go back to Elgin Baylor to find an all-time great player who did not drop off at all in the playoffs who never got a ring. Like, you know, usually like guys like Harden, Carl Malone, even Barkley to a degree, they weren't consistently quite as good in the postseason as they were in the regular season. The guys who are this caliber of player who are consistently in, you know, in the mix peel one, even if it's the Dirk path where it looks like, man, they're never going to get one. And then, bam, they do. So it would just be there's not really a precedent for a guy who is this good statistically in the regular season, seemingly gets better in the playoffs, had early playoff success with the conference finals and the finals appearance under his belt in his first five years of his career. That guy's never going to win a championship. I think they're behind OKC and San Antonio in the short term and long term, it feels. but it doesn't mean that you can't ever have a year where you get past them. I buy that at the same time. If we went back to that other graphic, you don't have to pull it up, Hubs. But this year's a wash, so this year's done. This is now – what is this year for him? Year eight? Year seven? Year seven or eight. It was the 2018 draft, so this is year eight, right? Yeah. Okay, so this will be year eight, and this is a wash. We don't – I mean, let's just – for fun, we don't think it's happening next year. and then if I was like, hey, rattle off some guys that you could see getting championships in the next five years, you could bang, bang, bang. You're like, oh, I could see the Celtics getting one. I could see the Pistons getting one. And, like, all of a sudden you're like, uh-oh. OKC, San Antonio, Denver. Houston, Denver gets one. Wherever Giannis ends up, if Giannis goes somewhere, and then all of a sudden you're like, uh-oh, are we up around year 11 or 12, Luka? Here's the other thing. Here's the other thing, Nick. Go ahead. And again, a lot of my issue is with Lucas playing style. And I'm not the first to say this. For years, people have been saying he's Harden. He's James Harden. He does the same thing. And I've said, no, he's different. But we haven't seen a one-man show win a championship. Wilt Chamberlain's years, two years he won the championship, he didn't lead the league in scoring. His scoring dropped. His usage dropped. Jordan, when he was averaging 35 and 37 a game, he didn't win the championship. LeBron in Cleveland, one-man show, didn't win the championship. Harden hasn't been able to do it. We haven't seen anybody do Oscar Robertson. He was a one-man show in Cincinnati. He didn't win the championship there. So I just think this style of play, and is Luka capable of playing a little differently? A little differently. Just give me some action when you don have the ball in your hands Give me a little more effort defensively He has to be ball dominant and that one or two man teams where one or two guy creates everything for everybody generally get beat by five man teams when the talent is close And so I think that's the challenge. History backs you up on that, obviously. I mean, that's a really fair point. And the history 100% backs you up. The question is, would Harden have done it if you got regular season Harden in the playoffs, would they have won, even with his style? Because what hurts Harden in the playoffs isn't just his style, It's that he's no longer James Harden. And so that's the – Luke is kind of the test case for that. Nico Harrison loved this segment. He loved it. Nico is watching with 80 drafts over these next few years. This is my favorite show. Come on. Winter Olympics have wrapped up, but KD still has gold on his mind. Asked about 2028. Here's what he told Vince Goodwill. You guys, the media, have projected that about not playing that narrative. When did the last dance thing come from? I didn't say I wasn't playing. LeBron said he wasn't. You didn't hear that from me or Steph? Heck yeah, I want to play. I want to still prove I can help the team win. I feel like I'll put my name in the hat. Okay, he wants another gold medal, Brew. Are you buying he can win his fifth? Well, let me give Kevin Durant credit, too, because he said, the full article, I don't just want to be given a spot. He's legendary enough where you could just put him on there because he's Kevin Durant. He said, I want to earn it and be able to help. Now, look, this is two years away. He'll be 39 years old. Let's see how well he's playing at that point. But the Kevin Durant right now is always going to be a benefit to Team USA. I mean, he's the exact type of player you need on these superstar-laden teams because he doesn't dominate the ball. He can just catch it and shoot mid-range three-pointers and give you 20-something points a game. and fit totally in with everybody else, whoever they are. And so, Nick, I think it'd be a great benefit to Team USA in two years, assuming Durant's still Durant if he were on the team. So I like his attitude with this. Listen, also, this has been a tough few weeks for Kevin Durant, of his own doing, no doubt. But I find it endearing how much this dude just loves to hoop. Yeah. Like, he just loves to play basketball. It seems to – playing basketball and tweeting seem to be his two real passions, and he is a legend at both of them. Here's the thing, KW, that I think you're going to like. And we could do, as you would say, a whole podcast on this. Man, who's in, who's out? Love it. Gianna, fire up the podcast. Let's start going. All right, so I am – so Anthony, we're projecting out. Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Halliburton, Jason Tatum, who's got a lot of get-back coming, Devin Booker. I'm going to project Cooper Flagg. Yes. Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson if he wants it, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brown saying, hey, what about me, Cade Cunningham. We're at 10. You only have 12. Are we calling – I don't think all 10 of them are making it. Because they're going to build a team, not just the best individuals. And I have not even mentioned the following guys who are on the trajectory, like Vijay Edgecombe, Con Knipple, Stephon Castle, your guy LaMelo Ball, my guy Amin Thompson, Chet Palo, Jalen Dern if we want more size, Jalen Williams, Scotty Barnes, Evan Mobley, Austin Bam, who's already been an Olympian. And I didn't include Anthony Davis or Embiid. Point is this. I agree with you, Brew. If Kevin Durant wants a spot, then I feel like, okay, there's 11 spots up for grabs if he wants it as far as I just want to be there. But if it's truly based on merit, as great as Durant is, it could be tougher than it looks. Like, I just listed 23 guys. And, you know, those guys, most of them, are either going to be here, meaning they're maintaining, or they're getting better over the next two years. It's hard to imagine KD maintaining this. I mean, maybe he can. He's unbelievable. But I just love how much he wants to and how much he loves to play basketball, represent Team USA. I think it's sick. KW, I didn't include any of your garbage men guys. You want Alvarado in there. You do need some gritty guys. Derek White, Drew Holiday. He wants Isaiah Stewart. Isaiah Stewart would be great. We could use a little of that grit. Ravens winning 11 games next year. That's next on FS1, the Fox Sports Channel, and SiriusXM. We're on the road to 2 billion views. Gianna, how close are we? She said pretty close. And also, we have a podcast. You can take the show on the go. You don't have to be in the studio. You know what I mean? Some people take that to heart. Fresh edition of Over Under, Ravens, Bills, Eagles. All three of these teams at 10.5. but we'll start in Baltimore, Brew. New coach, same expectations, SBob. The good news here, if you look at the opponents, ninth easiest schedule, nice sweet spot. Easy enough to win games, not so easy to get made fun of and people take away your Super Bowl run. Jags, Titans, Bucs, Saints, Chargers in Baltimore. Colts, Texans, Falcons, Panthers, Bills, and a trip to Dallas, which I think we should go to if that's a Fox game. on the road over under 10 and a half bro. Look, I'll be surprised if any of us say under. All right, so I'm going over. I think the Ravens are coming back with a vengeance this year. Jesse Minter, I think, is going to bolster that defense, revitalize that defense. I think they're going to play with an energy that they've lacked the last few years, even as they've been, you know, pretty good defensively. We'll see. This might be Derrick Henry's last hurrah. You never know when a running back's going to fall off. He didn't look like it at all last year, but it's coming at some point. I know it's a bad bet. Yeah, I'm going to assume he's going to be good this year. I think Lamar Nick is going to be excellent. Declan Doyle, look, we assume he learned a lot of stuff under Ben Johnson, right? And so I'm sure he's looking at Lamar like, man, this guy can do all sorts of things. So I bet they come up with some creative stuff. I just think after last season, one of the benefits of that bad season last year is you come into the next year, I would think, with incredible motivation. So I do, without question, am taking the over on this. I reserve the right, as we all do, to change this. But mine, I particularly reserve the right to change it. if Lamar, the contract situation drags on at all. But assuming Lamar gets the new deal that he wants, I am slamming the over on the Ravens. Paid Lamar is available, Lamar. That is what we have seen throughout his history. And I think the new coach is a net positive, even though I also think John Harbaugh going to the Giants is a net positive for them. And I have an announcement, KW. And I hate to do this. Because usually if you doubt someone and you're wrong, the answer is just keep doubting them because eventually you'll be right. Yes. Eventually it's coming. I'm laying down my metaphorical sword on doubting Derrick Henry. Smart. It'll just probably be awesome forever. Yes. Savvy move. Bruce at the end could be nigh. I might be the Derrick Henry guy now. I mean, it sounds like the real estate's available. So I will take the over for the Baltimore Ravens. I tried to be as pessimistic as possible to make this segment interesting. And you couldn't find the losses. Bills, could see it. Texans, Jags or the Chargers, Bengals, and then I had them losing one to the Steelers, one to the Browns, and that only gets you to seven. One, two, three, four, five. No, that only gets you to six. That only gets you to six. That's only six, buddy. So, and a lot of you losing to the Browns. So, I'm slamming the over as well. I think they're going to be excellent. It's the easy schedule, bro. It's a gift. That AFC South will be interesting, right? Because we expect now the Jags to be good, Houston to be good. We'll see with the Colts. I mean. Colts will not be good. Did you have them losing to the Texans, KW? Obviously. The Texans are excellent. I'm going to. Oh, I forgot. I'm huge on the Texans. I forgot. You're a Texans. Well, they're the best defense of all time. They were one of the best defenses ever. CJ Stroud was an MVP candidate. If CJ comes out and plays well, they're going to be a handful. CJ is going to be great. CJ is going to, I'm huge on the Texans all year. Head up to Buffalo. New coach in a moderately new spot in the division. Last year was the first time they haven't won the AFC East in five years. Here are their opponents. Home against the Chiefs. Tough. Chargers, Bears, Lions, Ravens. Wow. And then on the road, Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Texans, and Rams. Woo. Obviously two games against the Dolphins and the Jets. That you punch in for four wins. Over under 10.5 for friend of the show, Josh Allen. Nick, you start us off. I'm going under. I am not as optimistic about their coaching change, particularly in the regular season, as I am for the Ravens. I also think that same reason I'm worried about the schedule for the Patriots, I'm worried about it for Buffalo, and they don't actually get a ton of benefit for it being second place because, for instance, they get the second place team in the AFC North. Congrats. Instead of getting the Steelers, you get the Ravens. You get the second place team in the AFC West. Congrats. Instead of getting, or I guess they were going to play the Chargers no matter what. So you get the Texans instead of the Jags in the AFC South. None of those are great. You get the Packers instead of the Bears. I don't even know if that's better than the first place schedule. And I do wonder this as well, Brew. As Josh Allen literally limped to the finish line, finished the year in a boot, is this finally the season? Not that he misses games, but that he protects himself more in the regular season. And if that lowers their regular season efficiency, even if it makes them more dangerous in the playoffs because he doesn't want to have a broken foot come January. So I will go right now tentatively in pencil, even though I'm holding a Sharpie, I will go under. Well, look, 10-7 if that's where you're going. I'm not sure that gets you in the playoffs. And so that's alarming to think. Probably wins that terrible division, Brew. I mean, who else is going to win double digits in that division? Let's be honest. It's alarming to think they would make it. But we just saw Mahomes and Lamar not make the playoffs in their prime, right? So he's due. He might be due. He might be due for a year. Joe borrowed him. Yeah. Great take. That schedule is scary. I do believe in Joe Brady. I think offensively they are going to be at least as good, if not better. Defensively, I do have questions because they've had injuries in the past and Sean McDermott being on that side of the ball has been great and kept him afloat defensively. So that is my question mark, but I'm going to take the over for now just because it's hard for me to fathom coming off that disappointment last year, Josh Allen not getting them into the playoffs. Friend of the show, I still have them under. Just to expound on what you were saying because I went through the whole schedule. I know you're trying to freestyle it. We both play that week. AFC East plays the NFC North, so we're both got Packers, Bears. But it's Patriots get the Steelers, Bills get the Ravens, Patriots get the Seahawks, Bills get the Rams, Patriots get the Jags, Bills get the Texans. So I can argue that the Patriots have the easier, even though we have to play the Seahawks. Also, defense was their calling card. They fired their defensive head coach. I don't think they're going to be better at defense unless there's some bounty in the draft or free agency. I think the culture of Buffalo's defensive-led team is gone, bro. Well, look, they could be better defensively in the playoffs. I would expect them to be better in the playoffs. The question is the regular season. Regular season, they were very good defensively, not in the postseason. Thank you for the correction because you're right. It's the Rams-Seahawks flip-flop. So you could argue the three second-place teams the Bills play are harder than the three first-place teams the Patriots play. What the Bills have as an advantage is they get to play the Patriots while the Patriots have to play the Bills. Mac Jones beat the Bills. Every Patriots quarterback has beaten the Bills recently. Head down to Philadelphia. Last five years, their win totals. 11-14, 11-14, and 9 in Serie A's first year. Here are their opponents, the over-unders at 10.5. Panthers, Texans, Colts, Rams, Steelers. Seahawks will be in Philadelphia. On the road, Cardinals, Bears, Jags, 49ers, and Titans. Brew over under for Jalen Hurts' squad, 10 and a half. I won't be shocked if they fall off. Really? I won't be shocked if they fall off. I think we'll see if Dallas can bounce back, but I always expect Washington to be better. I expect the Giants to be better. But I do like, look, I like Sean Mannion. I know they went through, you know, 50 interviews before they picked their offensive coordinator. But Nick, he's from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. He's worked with a lot of Sean McVay, a lot of other great minds. So I think he could really give that offense a boost. We know the defense is going to be good. I firmly believe the defense is going to be great. The offensive line, can they jump back to being elite? I'm going to go with the over right now with a little bit of hesitation, but I'm going with the over. KW, Brew's affinity towards Sean Mannion reminds me a lot about his affinity towards Javante Williams. Always there, but just quiet. Had a great year. Talk a lot about it. Look at him now. Newly rich. Shout out. Listen, I think this is a hammered under. I hate that they lost Jeff Stoutland. We're going to talk about it later. I believe they're going to lose A.J. Brown. It seems like they have real questions about, even though Lane Johnson seems like he's going to be coming back, a couple of their interior offensive linemen. What's their future because of injuries? Under Howie Roseman, the Eagles have had these periods of sustained excellence and then a disaster year back to excellence. 2012, four wins. And prior to that, really good. 2020, four wins. It feels like we're about due for a disaster year for Philadelphia. And so I'm not saying four wins, but we talked about how no team had gone back to back in the division in more than 20 seasons. I think if they go over, they would be three straight. That seems like an almost impossibility in the NFC East. I really like the under for Philadelphia. Wow. Jalen Hurts wins double-digit games. Over. Tenth easiest schedule. I don't come in west. You're back on the Eagles. I'm about to be. The stock went really low. We know your pick is Seattle. We know your pick is Seattle. I like Jalen Hurts. And the A.J. Brown thing, I forgot who said it. That might be a win-win scenario for Philadelphia and A.J. Brown if he leaves. And New England. I'm not saying New England. Maybe Buffalo. Maybe Kansas City I saw floating around there. Weirdest and most wonderful plays last night. That block was so good I almost called it a goaltend, but it wasn't. Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao getting back into the ring 11 years after their fight in 2015. Floyd won by unanimous decision. Netted both boxes. Huge paydays, bro. New York Times said that fight grossed $410 million in pay-per-view. Rematch September 19th on Netflix. Two all-time greats passed their prime. Are you intrigued by this? Keyword intrigued. I will be watching. It's on Netflix, so it's free. All right, I'll be watching. But that first fight was one of the worst fights I've seen in my five decades. Oh, come on. It was a square dance. It was terrible, all right, which is not unusual for Floyd's fights, as great as he is. What scares me is that now Floyd's 49, Pacquiao's 47. Floyd, we know, is going to be defense. All right, he's going to be avoiding shots and all that stuff. Pacquiao at 47, is he going to be throwing combinations? Because I think if Pacquiao at his best, when he would throw a ton of combinations and punches from all angles, that would have, I think, given Floyd some trouble. But now, generally when fighters are older, they throw one or two punches at a time. They're not throwing a bunch of combinations. So he's not going to be hitting Floyd with that one or two punches. And so that could lead to a very boring fight. I'm a bit intrigued. I do want to watch it. But it could be a square dance like it was 11 years ago. I'm super intrigued. And listen, Pacquiao just fought, pardon me, Barrios. And now his draw, I thought he beat him. He was a huge dog. I thought he got screwed in the decision there. That fight has not aged quite as well because we saw what Barrios did this past weekend. And it looks like, all right, so maybe that wasn't as impressive. But the fact that he has recently had a real fight and Floyd has been de facto retired for now more than a half decade made me think this was a Pacquiao smash spot. However, I talked this morning in preparation for this. I'm always working the phone. The nacho. Nacho. No, nacho is not the boxing sharp. Oh. The boxing sharp is Nick Shulman, I think America's preeminent boxing expert and the man who told me to bet Pacquiao in his last fight the one where he was like 6-1 dog, almost 1. he seems very anxious that Brew is going to be right, that Pacquiao simply will not be able to get a shot in on Floyd, that Floyd is still in such great shape that even though he's not fighting, that Floyd's, you know, being the greatest defensive boxer, maybe the greatest boxer ever, that even having been out of the ring competitively for as long, that Floyd is correctly the favorite. But am I lean despite that? I think Manny can win. And I'm excited for it. I'm way more excited for this than Mayweather Tyson or whatever. That's the warm-up. The Mike Tyson warm-up fight this spring. Here's what I hope happens. Okay. That Floyd's defense has fallen off a bit, so now he can be hit. And Pacquiao catches him a few times and forces Floyd to fight. So now it's a fight. It's a real fight. It's not me just avoiding punches and jabbing you here and there to win on points. And it becomes a real fight. That's what I hope. You want him, like, exchanging blows? Yes, it's a boxing match. I want him fighting. That's not how Floyd has ever fought. Well, that's why I say if the defense goes a little and he gets hit a few times, then he's going to have no choice but to fight. And then it could be interesting. Can I just add one other thing, KW? This is maybe similar to Bruce, Sean Mannion, Javante Williams' love, opinion by mine that maybe wasn't ever shared on the air, but I have longstanding belief. Classic one, Floyd gambling too much. I don't care how much money he's made. I don't care his money Mayweather. The fact that we're seeing him back in the ring, I feel like those million-dollar halftime wagers he used to be posting, I feel like it might have caught up to him a bit. You might be right. It feels like a guy who like if I can pick up million off the ground I maybe should do it I maybe need it It did feel like he was a little bit long on cash You know it felt like he was very liquid Here's all my money on the table. He's liquid, all right. I get 3% on that at just any home in chase. Invest, Lloyd, invest. All right, fresh episode of King of the Hill next. Live from New York, The show that's excited for the premiere of the Green Turf. We got rid of the snow. I know. I love it. We're excited for King of the Hillies. We're kicking off NBA. I'm excited about this, Nick. I've got to be honest. I am, too. When is Club Superstar? We should start teasing that. That's always the same. It's after the first round of the playoffs. We always have it the same time, KW. I didn't know that. It's in late April. I thought it was in late February or early March. Second hour of First Things First starting right now. Today, is A.J. Brown ready to move on from the Eagles? Are the Eagles ready to move on from A.J. Brown? Shouldn't we just say, you know what, we had some good times. Fun while they left. You know what, it was great. They won the Super Bowl. That's right. Let's just end it. Now it's time for A.J. to rack up numbers. That's right. Meanwhile, Brown's looking at Malik Willis instead of Shador. How should that make Shador feel? Not great. Probably. Not great. No. But right now you're in for a real treat. It's time for the friendliest segment in all of sports. Now, there's snow on the ground. And, well, where we are, bro, I have no idea what the weather is where Nick is. Nick is stuck. I'm sure it's terrible. Oh, no, it's actually perfect. My surprise. It's time for the inaugural edition of King of the Hill for the full NBA season. I'm excited. So, for Mahomes Mountain KW, which is a similar setup, we go seven rows, 28 quarterbacks. That's probably enough with the butterflies, Rick. This is what made us do the bad boy of sports TV. Right, are you bringing that back, Bob? Remember, I got the bad boy of sports. I thought it was fun for about two weeks. Yeah, but then I got taken. No, Danny took it. Danny took it. He's not even a nerd about it. So, for the inaugural king of the hill KW, We're going eight rows, which is 36 guys. Buckle up. But even that is not enough. Okay. So before we get to the 36 guys, and I want your guys' reaction to this. First, toughest omissions. Guys that just missed the cut. Josh Giddey, Brandon Agram, Stephon Castle, Aaron Gordon. Your guy, Dylan Brooks, KW. Shout out to him. No, he wasn't going to be top 36 either. Franz Wagner and shout out Cooper Flagg. Brew, those guys not making the cut any issue significantly? There's one guy on the list that I do not think should be on the top 36 that I think has to go. And so I'll share that. Has to go? Yeah. It'll be a bonus. Tease. I can't wait for the bonus. All right, Hubs, go ahead and show the most disappointing guys to not make it. Paolo, not making it. My guy, Amin Thompson. KW's guy, Lomelo. I would have thought going into the year, Amin and Paolo definitely would have made the inaugural King of the Hill. I couldn't justify putting them on there. Any issues? I know, obviously, Brew, you might think they deserve to be above. So, KW, your thoughts on your guy, Lomelo, not making it? I don't have a huge issue with LaMelo not making it. Did the car accident affect my judgment on that? I told you. It shouldn't. Another classic won by me. I showed you that video of him peeling out of the Horton Stadium, and you didn't care. That was inevitable. And then, lastly, in most of – Every post-game press conference, he's swearing. It's just – But they're starting to win. They're starting to win, but – He's a big key. I know they got Brandon Miller and Concanipple, too, but I think, look, the accident notwithstanding, I think Melo is turning a corner. Oh? I think he's turning a corner. Well, that's the problem. It's not yielding. Yeah, no pun intended. I think he's turning a corner. And then, again, it's 36 guys on the list, so we can basically call it a top 40 because these are the five guys who either haven't played this year or are out for the rest of the year, who I'm very confident would have been on the list. Tatum, Halliburton, AD, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie, obviously, but they're not eligible. So with that table set, eighth row of the inaugural edition of King of the Hill, Jalen Duren, Scotty Barnes, J-Dub, maybe a little disappointing placement for J-Dub after an All-NBA appearance. Siakam, I don't know what, maybe I'm being unfair to Siakam. He's the best player on that team, but they're awful. I don't know what to do with him. Laurie Markkinen, Derek White, De'Aaron Fox, and Rudy Gobert in his customary spot. Again, it's not left to right, but he always makes the hill, and he seems to somehow be the guy bottom row furthest right. Seventh row, KW's guy, not KD's guy, clearly. KW's guy, but not KD's guy. I'm just venting a little bit. Albert Shingun, Jalen Johnson, shout out Austin Reeves. This might be his first time ever on King of the Hills, certainly regular season edition. Evan Mobley, Julius Randle, Chet's guy, maybe a little disappointing placement for him, I don't know, and then Bam, who we were just talking about earlier. Okay, now we get to the top 21. Guys, you'll call it top 20 if you'd like. Sixth row, what a row. So, Stephan Braun, shout out to these two guys for still being top 20 players definitively, but their lowest placement for either one of them, I think, ever on any edition of King of the Hill. And shout out to James Harden for at his age also not only still being a top 20 player, but, you know, nothing tells you that we're right past Valentine's Day like James Harden playing his best basketball of the season. Carl Anthony Towns, Jamal Murray, and Denny Avdia with his highest ever placement on the Hill. Maybe his first ever placement on the Hill. Now we get to our top 15. Maybe a soon-to-be five-time Olympic gold medalist Kevin Durant. Tyrese Maxey, who quietly has just been sensational. Devin Booker. Joel Embiid, who also quietly the last, I don't know, month and a half. I don't know. Vintage Embiid, close to it. And then Kawhi Leonard, who, not so quietly, has been awesome ever since the Clippers. Listen, they spotted the league a 6-21 start. Since then, Kawhi's been on fire as has the team. Now to the top 10. And all of these guys are MVP candidates. Well, all but one, I guess. Cade Cunningham, legit MVP candidate. Jalen Brown, legit MVP candidate. Jalen Brunson, legit MVP candidate. and Donovan Mitchell, legit MVP candidate. The one guy who I said in the top 10 is not a legit MVP candidate is the first guy listed on row three, and that's Giannis because of games missed and how well his team has done. He's playing some of the best ball of his life, but obviously he's not good at the games threshold. The team's not good, but I do think he's coming back soon, which is why he's not with the injured players off the hill. Wimby, Anthony Edwards round out row three, and then we get to the top three, and at least two of the top three are consensus. Shea is a consensus top three player. Luka, maybe not consensus top three anymore, but I do think there is consensus that the guy at the top is still the best player in the league. Shout out Nikola Jokic, who has owned King of the Hill the last few years. That, Chris Broussard, is the inaugural edition of the 2026 King of the Hill. You want to start with the bonus? I'm interested in the bonus. The bonus. I will start, Nick, with the bonus takes. Two. Two bonus takes. Oh. Number one, I'm going to move Jalen Duren up one level, one row. I put him ahead of Bam. I put him ahead of Bam. There's other guys I could probably put him ahead of, but I'll switch him and Bam out of Bayou. Duren, man, is tough. You saw him dunk on Wimby last night. He's legit. So I'm moving him up. Second bonus take, the guy that can't be on, I'm sorry, Joel Embiid. Really? That was the bonus take? He doesn't. He's played. Now, I get it for him. It seems like he's played a lot because he's played 31 games. But now he's already out again with the knee and the shin. So who knows when we'll see him again. I just at some point, availability has to be a factor. Nick, honestly, are you counting on him at all in the playoffs for Philadelphia? Because I agree he is a phenomenal player still, but I have no confidence whatsoever that he's going to be able to play consistently for any significant period of time. So I just think... Maybe because of the approach this year, Brew, where he has missed a lot of time, they're being extra cautious, maybe that's the one thing they haven't tried so they can get... Maybe Embiid, if it's like, hey, your 60th game of the year, not even that, your 50th game of the year is going to be your first playoff game, Maybe that's the path he has to take. He is still, though, after a slow opening month of the season, night to night, damn near back at 30 points a game. And he's just such a special offensive player, even if defensively is where the injuries have taken their biggest toll, where he's not the rim protector he once was. But he's such a special offensive player, Brew. I'm shocked that's the guy you're saying has to be off. I didn't see that coming. I just see him as a part-time player, you know, at best. And I think even if he – if what you're saying with their strategy, even if that's the case, the team is going to be – there's not going to be any chemistry. You know, you see they play differently when he's there. Maxie plays a little differently, which is understandable, but I just don't think they're going to have the chemistry to make any type of significant run. Maybe they could win a round, maybe, if it's a 4-5 matchup or something. But so I just I just think he's a part time player. I would take him off and I would put not at that level. But the guy I'd probably put on, I think, is Cooper Flagg. Cooper, I know it's the last eight games, 28 points, eight boards. Now, they're not winning. They're like one in seven in those games. But young guys, I don't expect them to win. OK, right. And so 28 and eight over the last. That's almost like a third bonus take the Cooper Flagg one. Well, yeah, it's related. So here's the... Go ahead. Wait, hold on. Let me respond to the flag before you give your real take. Here, and KW, I want your take on this. And so maybe it was a bit of a cop-out by me. Because I thought about putting Cooper Flag on. But it felt... I'm not certain that I think... Even if I think he is going to be better long-term, I'm not certain I think Cooper Flag is having a better year than Con Knipple. And I'm not just doing the two white guys thing, but the two leading rookie of the year candidates. Con Canipple has similar numbers, and it is contributing at least to some winning. Now that team is better. So, like, that was – I thought Canipple had almost as strong of a case as Flagg. That's fair. Look, Canipple's playing great. I would go with Flagg. I think he's a better, certainly, overall player. But Canipple's in the hunt for – they're going to be one, too. I think it'll be Flagg and Canipple. But my full take. Full take. We're out of the bonus row. Okay. And look, and let me preface it with this. Hold on. I do not. I am not trying to carve out space as like the anti-Luka guy. Because I like Luka. You called him Luka Legend. Right. I nicknamed him Luka Legend. I think I was the first to say he's Luka Legend. I thought he was going to be Larry Bird 2.0. All that. He is a phenomenal player. to make that comp. Yes, absolutely. But you can't win with him. No, you can win to a certain level. I just think he has to adjust a little bit his style. No, you're not anti-Luca, but earlier in the show, and you did not say it, but you did mention that you could, yeah, it's on the board. On the board that he never wins. But you're not anti-Luca. No, no. Charles Barkley never won a championship. Patrick Ewing never won a championship, and many other great ones. Alright, but anyway, here we go. Nick, I'm switching Wimby and Luka. And Giannis, I keep where he's at because, again, this year has been injury ravaged. So I'm putting Wimby, I'm switching Wimby and Luka. Wimby is just better. He's better now. Like, we know defense we don't even have to discuss. But he actually, Nick, is shooting slightly better from three-point range than Luka. He is slightly. It's very close. It counts, though. He's shooting better from the free throw line than Luka. And because he's not, he is able to fit into a system, obviously, better than Luka, which allows his teammates to shine as well. And so, yeah, I think Wimby, I mean, look, we're talking about this ultra young team, aside from him, going to the finals. And that's because of his impact on both sides of the floor. So I would switch Wimby and Luka. I don't think that's, I obviously don't think that's outrageous. I think it is, there is a really strong argument that Wimby, depending on what you do with Giannis, you can argue Wimby's third best player in the league. That if it's Joker, Shea, Wimby, you can argue that. So I get that. I, and this is, KW won't like this, I don't think. I have a hard time putting anyone in that rarefied of error before I've seen him one time in the playoffs, before I've seen him one time play a full season, before I've seen him one those things, and now part of that's not his fault. It's bad luck. It is what it is. But I just, it feels, I don't want to say it feels premature because I watch the games and some nights you're like, maybe he is as good as Joker. Maybe he's already the best player in the league. But it just feels like a title that everyone else that has had it has at least had a playoff run, even if it was a bad one, just some experience earlier. So that would be my pushback there. But I get it. Like, Wimby's been unreal. You guys, maybe I'll become the Luka guy. No, look, I love Luka. Nick is Nick. Although I will say this. I have not heard Nick describe him as my adult Slovenian son in a while. Nick is not in a while. The way that Nick defends Patrick Mahomes, we show a graphic. Every number is down. Wins six games all year. Still obviously the best. Poor Luca's in fifth place, and the guy has no defense for him. He might not be able to hear me either. It's just open season. He definitely did not hear you. No, he can't. This is great. This is great. So, I'll just tell Nick that I want to move Shingun up maybe one row and switch him with – I'm not mad at that. I thought Shingun was a tad – I would like to have him just optically on the same line with Steph and LeBron. Here was his play last night just to wet your appetite of what Shingun is up to. Not only just like classic big man rebounding, but also like setting up Durant, a little give and go. So Mr. Consistency when I've been on Shingun, he's just been good. Obviously, Durant fits with the Rockets. So he's got one more point. His rebounds went down. Assists went up. Field goal percentage exactly the same. He's great on offensive rebounds, 20 points and three offensive rebounds this year. The only two guys that are doing that are Shingun, Joker, and Cat is doing it as well. And then finally, we look at guys who lead their teams, playoff teams, because you can, like Nick Claxton does it, Draymond, Derek Queen, of leading your teams in rebounds and assists. It's Joker and Shingu just for playoff teams. If the Magic sneak in, Boncaro is also on the list. Jalen Johnson's on the list. So I would like to move Shingu up just one row. I'm not asking for too much. Just flip them with Denny just because they're playing so well. So here would be my question. I guess to both of you. And listen, the Van Vliet injury is brutal, but we knew that going into the year. The Steven Adams injury happened during the year. But I look at the Rockets and I say, I think Durant is playing on the court as well as they could have possibly hoped for. And I think they have been slightly disappointing. Like, I don't view them as a Tier 1 and maybe not quite a Tier 2 contender like I thought I was going to, how much of that falls on Shingun? Like, how much of that falls on Shingun not taking a leap? He has to play the point. He leads the team in assists. It's not his fault the team didn't sign a true point guard. That was pretty obvious. Yeah. So, I understand and is arguing you should be on row six, you know, is I think totally reasonable. I guess I am just, I thought the Rockets proved, you remember, I said I thought I might end up picking the Rockets to win the championship. And so maybe I'm holding, it's kind of the reverse Jalen Brown situation. I had such low expectations for the Celtics. I am just wowed by what he's done. Maybe I had too high of expectations for the Rockets that I'm, you know, maybe too far down on Shingun. So you make fair points, Kato. Yeah, I don't put it on Shingun. I'm with KW on this one. I would move Shingun up. I put a little of it, not that I'm moving him down, but I put a little more on Durant. Oh, really? He's the veteran, you know, supposed to go in there. I know he hasn't been a leader necessarily throughout his career, but I want him as the veteran to come in and give that guidance and leadership that can take this team to the next level. He's a bucket, but that's pretty much what he is, a bucket. The team's constructed a little bit. It's not well constructed. Just a little bit odd. Are the Eagles ready to move on from A.J. Brown? Is A.J. Brown ready to move on from Philadelphia? Some mixed messages coming out of the combine. That's next on First Things First. Fastest racing on earth returns to Fox. Alex Pillow, Knicks guy. Joseph Newgarden, my guy. And Paddle Award, friend of the show, was on yesterday. Bruce Guy, lead the way. 2026 IndyCar. I thought you were going to fail to mention that he's my guy. Oh, no. He's going to play great. It launches St. Petersburg Sunday, noon Eastern, live on Fox. Welcome back to the show. Nick Sirianni at the Combine was asked about A.J. Brown's tenure and future with the Eagles. Very philosophical, very zen from Nick Sirianni. Will A.J. be here next season? I can't guarantee how anything is going to play out into next season. I'm thinking I'm going to be the coach next season, but you can't guarantee anything past tomorrow. No, a lot of those varies in. Yeah. Now, a lot of guys will just guarantee, I don't know, if I'm going to walk out here, get hit by a bus. Nothing's guaranteed. He does give it a 48-hour window. He can't guarantee anything beyond tomorrow. So, he's already thinking to Thursday. Should the Eagles finally cut the cord with A.J. Brown? Brew, would you like to start? They should be open to it And this is nothing new for me They should be open to it But I wouldn give him away I wouldn be shopping him I would be talking to teams listening hearing what I can get for him And if I can get whether it a draft pick that enables me to get a replacement receiver or another replacement, you know, receiver that's not quite as good, I guess, but still a very good receiver who's going to pair with Devontae Smith and I can keep rolling. So they should be open to that. if they can't move him, then see what, look, Nick's trying to paint me now as the Sean Mannion guy. Yeah, you love Sean Mannion. He's into the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. You're painting yourself. Worked with McVay and all these guys. I no doubt that Mannion, Mannion was going to come in there with some ideas. All right? And he might make this thing pop. All right? So I would be looking to, you know, move him, open to moving him, but I'm not just giving him away just to clear the air and get everything new in there. So that's my take on this. I'm – I guess I shouldn't be shocked because, Brew, you're right. You have been very consistent on this. I just think that is – I think if the Eagles had to do it all over again, KW, they would have traded him at the deadline. Of course. Like, it was – that was a missed opportunity then. Now it's complicated because if you trade him before, you would in theory like to trade him before the draft because then you can use a pick in this year's draft. But the way, if you trade him before June 1st, it's $43 million on this year's cap, $43 million. You trade him after June 1st, you can split that $43 million amongst this year and the following year. But I just think this relationship has fully run its course. And that now they did win a Super Bowl with them. They obviously got to another Super Bowl with them. But a lot of our Eagles discussions last year were centered around, even if they were legitimate gripes, gripes that were surfaced by A.J. Brown. And I think they need to fully turn the page. and I do think he has real value. I think he's talented enough, young enough, and his contract isn't awful. It hurts to trade because you've paid him the guarantees already. But I would be wild stunned if your Philadelphia Eagles start week one with A.J. Brown on the roster. I feel like he is as good as gone and should be as good as gone even if he's still a really good player. So what do you think the going trade market is? I always kind of think of basketball trades, which are overvalued with picks, and all of a sudden Miles Bridges gets 10 picks. A pick in the 20s. And then a superstar is like. You think you can get a pick in the 20s for him? Wow. Or a first-round pick? Yeah, I think a late first. Oh, okay. And that's higher than I thought. And he can get a receiver. Yeah, I think he's definitely a great player. I feel like that's a little high, but if they can get that, sure. He had the 16th most targets, which you think is pretty bad. You know, not great. He got targets. Jamar played one more game. He had 64 more targets. So, look, he's middle-of-the-road targets for a start, like if you're a number one guy. I think he wants the ball. He did have over 1,000 yards. But if I was the Eagles therapist, like a marriage therapist for this team and A.J. Brown, I'd be like, hey, is this relationship strong? Like, do you guys really – the ceiling is like it's okay, it's not broken, it's salvageable, but no one is like it's not, you know, Puka and the Rams or Jamar and the Bengals or Seedy and Dallas. It's not a strong relationship where everyone is happy. I also think for A.J. Brown, you know, he doesn't have much left in his prime, And even if you believe Jalen Hurts is an elite quarterback, I don't think anyone would call him an elite passer. And I think A.J. Brown is like, man, I've never played with an elite passer. I went from Tannehill to Jalen Hurts, and that is, again, Jalen Hurts won a Super Bowl and played great in it. He's very good at his job. But I think A.J. Brown wants to see what he would look like if he was with a guy whose biggest strength was purely throwing, which he's never been in his career. Look, I understand he wants to put up numbers now. He's got his Super Bowl ring, and now he wants to make that Hall of Fame case statistically, and I understand that. Cleveland has a new coach. Are they also getting a new quarterback, Shador and Deshaun Watson, both on the roster? Mary Kay Cabot writing for Cleveland.com. that the squad has Malik Willis and Bama's Ty Simpson on their radar. Brew, how should Shadur feel about this? Look, Shadur has not, as much as I like him, and I'm the Shadur guy on this show, he has not earned the right at this point to feel any way other than I got to compete. Like, I have to compete. I have to go out there and win this job. Whether they bring in Malik Willis, they draft Ty Simpson or whoever, or it's me and Dylan Gabriel and maybe Deshaun Watson, I have got to compete. Now, I think he will get a fair shot this year. Outside looking in, I don't think Stefanski was high on him. He obviously let him play at the end of the year. But I think Munkin will give him a much more fair shot than Stefanski did. I think if, you know, he'll watch the door, and if he outplays guys in training camp, he'll get the job, and they'll craft the offense around his strengths. So I think that's the best he can hope for. He didn't get drafted first like Cam Ward. He didn't light it up. He had the great game against Cam Ward in Tennessee, but overall in those seven games or whatever it was, he didn't light it up. His numbers are pretty dreadful, but he showed you enough flashes that with a coach that believes in him, with an offense that gives him a shot, I think he definitely deserves a chance to start and earn that job in training camp. So I think that's the most he can hope for. I do want to say something about Deshaun Watson, but if you want to go first, Nick, on Shadour. No, go, bro. Go ahead. I just think that's interesting. Like, Deshaun Watson is, I think, 30 years old. We all know how great he was with the Texans. We all know what he went through off the field, and none of us obviously condone that. But, hey, the league has, you know, I'm not judging the guy's character. I wonder, can he still play? Like, he wasn't good for the Browns in those games that he played. But why, if I'm paying him already, though, Nick, I'm just wondering, do I give him a legitimate shot? And he popped his Achilles. Like, he wasn't good, all the off-the-field stuff, and he popped his Achilles. The article we're citing has said he looked great in the time, you know, last year when he kind of came back and practiced. So I'm just saying I would maybe be open to that if I'm the Browns, at least seeing what he can do. So I think it is very hard to handicap what the Browns are going to do at quarterback because the common denominator in the malfeasance by that organization at that position is the one guy who's always going to be there and the owner. And so I think that the owner wanted them to trade for him, wanted them to give him that contract, and so he might say, hey, ties go to Watson. I believe Deshaun Watson's career as an NFL starting quarterback is over, so he's not even working into my math on this. To answer this direct question, I agree with the first part you said exactly, Brew, which is Shador should, if he feels anything other than motivated by anything that happens this offseason, it's the wrong emotion. Like, he has not earned incumbency against anyone they could bring in. He's maybe earned incumbency versus Dylan Gabriel, and that's close, but I would give it to Shador. But they are probably bringing someone in. But these are two very different options, KW, as far as what it means for Shador. There are two things the Browns can do, in my opinion, that make it give Shador almost close to zero chance of being the week one starter. One is if they draft a quarterback in the first round, that guy is the guy they want to be the starter. Ty Simpson is not that, I don't believe. The other is signing a bunt, giving Malik Willis a bunch of money. If they draft a quarterback in round one or sign Malik Willis, that guy is their quarterback. Anybody that is drafted after round one, which is what I think Ty Simpson would be, that's an open competition with Shador that Shador has the experience edge in. So if I'm Shador and I get a text from the Browns, I feel very differently if I've read we're signing Malik Willis versus we just drafted Ty Simpson in the second round of the draft. Those are two very different outcomes for Shador future with the Cleveland Browns. Second round would be really strange. You don't have the power of being a first-rounder, but your second – so did you blow a pick on a backup quarterback? I still think if he's a second-round pick, Ty Simpson or whoever, it would be a competition. No, that's a competition. Yeah, I think it'd be a competition. It would be a weird pick. The NFL history of second-round picks being great quarterbacks, recent history, it's just Jalen Hurts. We'll see if Tyler Shutt can be, but it's not a good round for quarterbacks. Head to San Fran Fox Sports. Henry McKenna playing QB matchmaker in a new article on FoxSports.com. Pitches Mac Jones to Atlanta with new coach Kevin Stefanski. Mac Jones could find himself in the right place, the right time to do it. Sam Darnall and Baker and Gino have all done reinvent themselves. Does anyone like Mac Jones in Atlanta? Well, Atlanta just been so mediocre regardless of the talent recently, but they look B. John Robinson in your backfield. Drake London. Kyle Pitts is a tight end. I mean, you got talent there. Stefanski, who I do think is a good coach. I don't think he handles should do it well, but I think he's a very good coach, but he hasn't had success, Nick, as a head coach with his quarterbacks. Now, maybe that's because he hasn't had any good ones, I guess. Deshaun is just falling off. Watson, we don't know what should do. Flacco played pretty well for him, but overall he hasn't. I mean, the best of Baker and then Baker got hurt. Like, you know, he had Baker early and then Baker got hurt. Yeah, so I don't love him in Atlanta. I would love him in Minnesota. and even if he starts as a backup to J.J. McCarthy. No. And then he, if he went in there, I think he'd be the backup. That would be interesting. But McCarthy could either get hurt or just not play well, and then I think Matt could take the job. KW, do you want this? Let's say, just for the sake of this discussion, say the Vikings are off the table, and it's, you know, you get to decide. He stays in San Francisco. next year and is Brock Purdy's backup or he goes to Atlanta to be the starter. They're like, no, we're trading for you. We like you more than Pinnock's. What as the... America's not just biggest, only Mac Jones supporter. I'm not the only Mac Jones supporter. I'm not the only Mac Jones supporter. What would you prefer? I would prefer if he took another year of tutelage under Kyle Shanahan. have a two-year process of getting smarter, getting more confident. I don't know if Brock is a guarantee to play all 17 games in the playoffs, so you might get a few chances there. And as for Atlanta, everybody wants to find the next Sam Darnold. Henry writes about Baker and Geno. Why can't Michael Penix be that? Why can't Michael Penix, who has now a new OC, has a new head coach, has the weapons, is there. Everyone thinks they need to chop around. He's brittle. That's the big challenge with P. If that's what it is, then I don't know if that's solvable. But you've seen flashes from Penix. I saw on Monday night he outplayed Josh Allen. The guy can play. He can throw the ball. Can he stay on the field? I don't know. But if you're looking for a reclamation project, you have one in the building. I do. Here, Nick, quickly. I like Wilds. I like your idea about Mac learns again at the feet of Purdy. All right? No, it's not. No. At the feet of Shad. Okay, whatever. But he backs up Purdy this year. And look, next year, Minnesota Nick will know after this season what you've got in J.J. McCarthy. If he gets hurt again, it's like we just can't trust him to be healthy ever. Or he just plays poorly. And then they'll be looking for a quarterback. If he plays well, he's your guy. If not, that would be a perfect spot for Mac Jones. Can I have one more question to you, Nick? It came out officially today. I think the writing was on the wall, but the Falcons are going to officially release Kirk Cousins. Do you see any soft landing for Kirk Cousins anywhere? Yeah, Minnesota, obviously. I shouldn't say obviously. It's disrespectful to you. I didn't mean it like that. I just, in my brain, it was like, yeah, Minnesota backup J.J. McCarthy. Sorry, KW. I didn't mean it like that. No, that is. Okay. And if an end. Yeah, you could do that. All right. Coming up next. Is tonight's game a must? More dumb questions from K-Dot. I do mean it's my job. This is a must win. No, it's not. It's not. Wow. It's not. It's heaven. World Baseball Classic. It's around the corner. Otani, Harper, Soto, Judge. Credible lineup of superstars. Put it all on the line. March 4th through the 17th on Fox and FS1. I'll tell you what, between the Olympics, World Baseball Classic, and World Cup, I got USA fever pumping. I hear you. Afternoon headlines sponsored by Hilton Garden Inn. Hilton, it's for the stay. A quick NBA preview. Magic in L.A. tonight. Lakers are favored in looking to bounce back after just a dreadful loss to the Celtics. Hubs is asking if it's a must win, Nick, not me. I know it's not the playoffs, but you know. Well, I mean, first of all, you literally only ask questions that you demand to ask. So if we're asking it, it's because you either suggested it or okay. So don't foist this onto Hubs. You're not a way to do it. That's first of all. Second of all, they answer this question, yes, it is. Must win for the Lakers. It's a must win. And this is, by the way, the type of game they've won all year. They play, they have a bad, typically blowout loss against an A-lister or near A-lister. And then they play not a bottom feeder, not a dregs of the league, but a decent team. And they beat them. And so I expect the Lakers at home to handle the magic tonight. And none of us to feel any better or worse about them afterwards. I don't think it's a must win like Nick does. but I do agree they will win because, yeah, this is the type of team they beat. What I think is a must, though, is that their trio, their big three of Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reeves, begin playing better together, developing some better chemistry. They're 8-4 with those three. That's only 12 games. That's why they don't have great chemistry. But they're 8-4 when those three play. the losses are to the top four teams they've played Boston, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix with those guys on the court. So like you said, Nick, they haven't beaten good teams. But here's some numbers when these three guys are on the court. With those three players who are all very good players at this point, they're minus 37. All right. They're being outscored. You see by 10 points, the defensive rating versus the offensive rating. and opponents have a field day shooting 51% from the floor. Now, look at the numbers of the team overall compared to this. They are better without those three on the court than they are with those three together on the court. It could be just two of them, Luka and LeBron, LeBron and Reeves, whatever. But when they don't have all three on the court together, they are actually better statistically. I'm not saying these three shouldn't be playing together, but they have got to be on the court enough, Nick, to develop some chemistry. I said yesterday, I believe it was, their problem is defense. These three aren't great defenders at this point. And also, it's a my turn, your turn offense, because all three of them are best with the ball in their hands. So they got to start working this out. if they have hopes of making any sort of run in the playoffs. So that's what I want to see. KW, the jarring part of Brew's graphic is the fact that the offense gets markedly worse. Like, we would expect them to suffer defensively when those three guys are on the court. But the fact that when they're all three, the path for the Lakers is when those three guys are on the court, we are a top three offense in the league and we'll just deal with the bad defense. Instead, it's the opposite. So that part is the most concerning. You can't fix for this point in the season that if you have Luka, LeBron, AR on the court at the same time, your defense is going to be struggling. You should be able to fix DeBru's point that the offense should hum when those three guys are out there. It doesn't work. Knicks and Cleveland tonight just doesn't work, period. Battle of the third and fourth best teams in the East. Knicks are 37-21. Cavs are 36-22. Both teams have won 12 of their last 15. Who's the better bet to win the East? I know you're a Pistons guy, but between these two teams. I got the Pistons winning the East, but between these two, give me the Knicks. Now, if you could guarantee me that James Harden was going to play in the playoffs, like James Harden plays in the regular season, I would take the Cavs of these two. But I don't. I can guarantee the opposite. I can guarantee the exact opposite. Well, and on top of that, Nick, the Cavs themselves have had issues in the playoffs. Both of these teams lost to a lesser talented Pacers team last year. All right. The Pacers were just tougher. And that's what I think is the challenge with these teams. I think they're two finesse teams that get a little too soft in the playoffs. And Detroit is hardcore and tough and rugged. And that's why they're going to beat both of these teams. But I would say the Knicks of these two because I don't trust Harden in the playoff. Listen, I agree with you about the Knicks. The Knicks might be my pick to win the East. I'm not sure. I got to see what happens with Tatum and the Celtics. If Tatum comes back, I'll probably pick Boston. If he doesn't, then I think I'm leaning towards the Knicks. But KW, are you going to take that sitting down? what Brew just said? About what? I didn't find anything offensive of what he said. Am I supposed to be riding for the Celtics, who I saw lost to? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, that's not what it is. He is acting like the Knicks didn't address some of that alleged softness with maybe the most impactful trade deadline addition in the league. I didn't have the clip ready, but when Jose Alvarado did, He's tough, but he's also my height. That doesn't matter. That's the problem. Oh, hello. It's the size of the fight and the dog, okay? He's tough. He can eat. Yeah. He's tough. Jalen Brunson is tough. Josh Hart is tough. It's the big man. I need some bigs with some muscle, some force. That's what I need. No. Or you need a crafty little guy. Yeah. He's going to be hiding out in the corner. You think that's going to work in the playoffs? Hiding out behind the bench and he coming in? I guarantee you that will work. I guarantee it.