196: An Epilogue to Pearl Harbor with Steve Twomey
60 min
•Jan 5, 20263 months agoSummary
Steve Twomey, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, discusses his book 'Countdown to Pearl Harbor: The 12 Days to the Attack,' examining the decision-making failures and missed signals in the 10 days before December 7, 1941. The episode explores how Admiral Husband Kimmel and other naval leaders failed to act on mounting evidence of Japanese aggression despite receiving explicit war warnings and intelligence indicators.
Insights
- Leadership failures at Pearl Harbor stemmed not from lack of information but from refusal to change plans in face of contrary evidence and excessive assumptions about subordinates' actions without verification
- Cultural and racial prejudice toward Japanese military capabilities created blind spots that prevented accurate threat assessment despite nine months of prior speculation about Pearl Harbor as a target
- Systemic communication failures between Washington and Hawaii were rooted in misplaced trust rather than poor communication channels—leaders assumed others were doing their jobs without asking
- The attack succeeded partly because Japanese innovations (shallow-water torpedoes, mid-deployment code changes, open-ocean refueling) overcame American assumptions about technical impossibilities
- Individual competence at lower levels (Lieutenant Outerbridge's immediate action on submarine detection) was negated by leadership failures to escalate warnings through the chain of command
Trends
Historical analysis of organizational failure reveals patterns applicable to modern crisis management and decision-making under uncertaintyImportance of verification over assumption in high-stakes leadership roles, particularly when subordinates have critical informationDangers of confirmation bias when leaders have committed to strategic plans despite contradictory intelligenceValue of cross-functional communication and breaking down silos between military branches and intelligence agenciesRole of cultural understanding and avoiding stereotypes in threat assessment and strategic planningSignificance of training and preparation at operational levels in enabling effective response despite leadership failuresHistorical precedent for how nations can recover from catastrophic military failures through institutional learning
Topics
Pearl Harbor Attack - December 7, 1941Admiral Husband Kimmel Leadership DecisionsAdmiral Harold Stark Communication FailuresJapanese Military Deception and Operational SecurityAmerican Naval Intelligence and Code-Breaking (Magic/Purple)Torpedo Technology and Shallow-Water DeploymentRadar Technology Limitations in 1941War Warning Message Interpretation and ResponseUSS Ward Submarine Detection and First ShotsDiplomatic Negotiations and Oil EmbargoJapanese Embassy Code Destruction as Intelligence SignalAircraft Carrier Positioning and Fleet ReadinessPost-Attack Investigations and Blame AssignmentOrganizational Decision-Making Under UncertaintyMilitary Preparedness and Defensive Posture
People
Admiral Husband Kimmel
Commander of US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor; made critical decisions to ignore war warnings and failed to implement...
Admiral Harold Stark
Chief of Naval Operations in Washington; issued war warning but failed to follow up on Kimmel's response or verify de...
Steve Twomey
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author of 'Countdown to Pearl Harbor'; provides detailed analysis of the 12 day...
Lieutenant William Outerbridge
Commander of USS Ward who detected and fired on Japanese mini-submarine; took immediate correct action despite being ...
Taikyo Yoshikawa
Japanese spy in Oahu who conducted reconnaissance and reported absence of torpedo nets and defensive balloons around ...
Admiral William S. Pye
Senior admiral at Pearl Harbor who was rescued covered in oil from his battleship; had stated day before that Japan w...
Franklin D. Roosevelt
US President who ordered Pacific Fleet moved to Hawaii as warning to Japan and cut off oil supplies in response to Ja...
Cordell Hull
Secretary of State who negotiated with Japan over oil deliveries and received final diplomatic message after attack h...
Nomura Kishiburo
Japanese diplomat in Washington who negotiated with US over conditions for resuming oil deliveries in weeks before at...
General George Marshall
Army leadership figure involved in Pearl Harbor investigations and post-attack analysis of command failures
Quotes
"If success depends on knowing your enemy, I don't think we knew our enemy."
Steve Twomey•Mid-episode discussion on cultural understanding
"This dispatch is to be considered a war warning."
Admiral Harold Stark•November 27, 1941 message to Pacific Fleet
"You mean they could be coming around diamond head."
Admiral Husband Kimmel•December 2, 1941 response to missing aircraft carriers
"It would have been better if it had killed me."
Admiral Husband Kimmel•After being struck by spent machine gun bullet during attack
"The moment the first bomb or torpedo exploded in Pearl Harbor was the beginning of a tragedy for Japan because they were going to lose the war."
Steve Twomey•Discussion of Japanese strategic miscalculation
Full Transcript
My friends, it's Professor Jackson. I know you hear me from time to time promoting life shows or the HTT's membership program and so forth. But what sounds like self-promotion is actually much more about you, the listeners. I started this podcast to share my passion for history and to make learning history not suck. Along the way, a community of informed citizens call less. And that makes me genuinely happy. If you haven't heard, I've been working on a book for two years and I wanted to do something different. Something special to celebrate with the community of listeners that inspired me to write the book in the first place. So, to celebrate publication, we're planning the ultimate book club meeting on a Caribbean cruise may 18th through the 22nd. And I'd love for you to join me. Each guest will get an advanced signed copy of my book. I'll perform my live show, or record a live podcast, and much more. I know it's not for everyone, so there are only a few cabins available. If you're interested in joining me and this HTT's community for some fun, fellowship and learning at C, then go to htdscruise.com. That's htdscruise.com and use the code htds for $100 off. Hope to have you aboard. If it's not for you, don't worry, we'll be back in some other events. Thanks for being a listener. Truly. Hello my friends and welcome to an epilogue episode of History of the Doesn't Suck. I'm your professor, Greg Jackson. With the surprise attack on December 7th, 1941, at the US Naval Base at Pearl Harbor and Hawaii, our story has officially come to the United States entry into the Second World War. I told you that story in episode 194, and in 193, we covered the long buildup to the war with Japan. And yet, the attack on Pearl Harbor is one of those moments of history where the depth of inquiry and knowledge to be gained is almost endless. There's still more to learn. And so, today, before we head on to Midway and Island Hop through the Pacific Theater, I want to provide you with an outpouring of additional insights into the consequences of Pearl Harbor. Today, you'll hear a conversation between my colleague, Professor Lindsey Kormack, and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and best-selling author, Steve Tune. Steve's book Countdown to Pearl Harbor, The 12 Days to the Attack, injects suspense into the familiar history by pain stakingly reconstructing the days before the first torpedo drops. It begins on November 27th, 1941, when the admiral in charge of the fleet at Pearl Harbor received a message that began, this dispatch is to be considered a war warning, and then proceeded to do essentially nothing about it. But before we jump into that fascinating interview, I'm excited to share a personal milestone with you. As of today, my first book is now available for pre-sale. It's called Been There Done That. How our history shows what we can overcome. I'm announcing this not purely as a pitch for book sales, though I'd be honored if you'd order a copy. No, I'm announcing this because it's a continuation of what I tried to do with this podcast, which is to write a legit, rigorously researched hard-hitting history of these American states, told through entertaining stories. Because learning history is an important lifelong pursuit for all of us. I learned something new every day. Trust me. And though I spend most of my days living in the past, I'm still very much aware of the history that is happening today. I'm certainly aware of the widely held perception that there's a deepening division between us as Americans. That's some even question if the American experiment can endure. My response is that, while social media algorithms and political commentary are often designed to stoke fear and outrage, and while today's technology and mass communication have many novel aspects, our times aren't as unprecedented as we may think. And in this book, I not only make that argument, but further contend that we can, just like our predecessors, overcome these challenges. I do this in a way that longtime listeners of this podcast will find familiar. In my book, Been There Done That, I take us on a chronological journey. From the very start of the Republic in 1789 through the end of the 19th century, while telling eight stories, tales that engage such topics as political violence, fake news, and contested elections. I hope you'll find it a candid and earnest history, yet a hopeful one, as we consider how principles that served us in the past can continue to service in the future, as we continue to make our nation into a still more perfect union. I've been working on this book for more than two years, writing it in between writing podcast episodes and teaching. And now, I want to celebrate with a worthy book tour. So come out and celebrate with me. Live tour stops and appearances will be posted on our website, htdspodcast.com, along with the link to pre-order the book. And if you really want to celebrate with me, come check out the Caribbean Cruise Plan for May 18th through the 22nd, 2026. I'd love to have you aboard for all the VIP events, including a performance of my live show, and the ultimate book launch party. There are only a limited number of cabins available, so don't miss the boat. Find more info at htdspodcast.com or click the link in the episode notes. Okay, thanks for listening, and now onto what this episode is really about, a deeper analysis of the attack on Pearl Harbor. I wasn't able to participate in this interview because, as I mentioned, I've been a little busy writing episodes and a book. But I'm grateful to my colleague, Professor Kormack, whom you've met in past episodes, who is able to conduct this truly exceptional interview. Enjoy. Thank you for joining us today. We have Steve, to me with me, Steve. You have won a Pulitzer Prize for your excellent journalism, specifically for your 1987 feature about life aboard an aircraft carrier. Can you tell me, have you always been interested in the Navy? I guess. I mean, there's no particular naval connection to my family. I didn't serve. My father was in the Army Air Corps. So no, there's been no particular fascination or personal reason that I would be so enamored of the Navy. For what it's worth, I'm working on a second book now that's all about the Army. So maybe I'm just doing them in sequence. Okay, you're going to hop from Armed Service to Armed Service, perhaps? Yeah, if I live that long. So when we're thinking about the book that you've written, the book countdown to Pearl Harbor, the 12 days to the attack, what was it about Pearl Harbor that appealed to you or your sense of story, something that had to be told? Well, your right Pearl Harbor does not lack for books. It's one of the most written about events in American history. I think it may be the most investigated events in American history. The only thing that kind of rivals it is the Kennedy assassination. There were nine official government investigations of what happened at Pearl Harbor. So it's been thoroughly examined and so you might wonder why write another book about it. But I wanted to write a different kind of book. I wanted to write a thriller, a suspense story. You know, as readers today, we know what's going to happen on December 7, 1941. The people involved did not. That date wasn't circled on their calendars like, well, war begins today on December 7. For them, that Sunday was going to be just another day. They knew the situation in the world and in particular, the Pacific was very tense, but they had no feeling that the seventh was going to be any different than the sixth. And so I wanted to sort of get inside their heads and track how they were responding to events in real time. Because I'm a journalist, we have a kind of story called a TikTok. You may be familiar with it. A TikTok is a suspenseful chronological account of something that happened. In the background, the clock is ticking. And I wrote many of those in my long career in daily journalism. And it seemed to me that Pearl Harbor could benefit by having a TikTok. And the time frame was obvious. The first day of the TikTok would be November 27, 1941. And why that day? Well, that's the day Washington informed all of the naval commands and the Pacific that war was imminent. When I read that, I was stunned. I had never heard that 10 or 12 days in advance of the attack. Everyone thought an attack might happen. And the closing date would obviously be December 7. So those 12 days seemed to me to bookend a really good story of people coping with something that they did not understand yet. They were only getting fragmentary clues. How are they responding to this? It's a very human story. It's a drama of people forced to make decisions in the absence of complete facts. That's why I always thought this approach would work. So when you think about this in terms of like going for that TikTok approach that immediacy, when you were doing that research, was it something where you were looking at the journals of everyone every day or how did you go piece back together to try to get in everyone's mind as it's happening 12 days out? That's where the numerous government investigations come in handy. As I said, there were nine. I have all of them in about 50 different volumes. And they are all done as Q&As with the participants. And so you really have this incredible resource of first-hand accounts of what they were thinking, why they were thinking that, what they were doing. So that was the foundation of the book. Now I also ventured into doing research with the papers of various key individuals. But it really was those investigations that were the backbone of the book. That's how I could get inside their heads. Okay. And so when we're talking about those investigations, do those take the form of sort of like interrogatories or something that looks like a deposition where people are being asked questions, they have to answer with whatever it is that they were called at that time? Yeah, think of a congressional hearing where people are sitting at a table and being asked questions. In fact, the most thorough investigation of the attack was a congressional investigation that occurred. I think they began just as the war was ending. And it comprised the volume after volume of testimony. But it was all done in a Q&A format. People weren't submitting deposition. It wasn't a deposition. They may have been submitting formal statements, but then they would be asked questions too. Okay. So I want to talk a little bit about one of the main characters that you profile on the book, which is the man who's in charge of the Pacific Fleet, Admiral husband Kimmel. It seems like you get to know Kimmel quite well from these post-disaster testimonies. So in your knowing of him, can you tell us what kind of leader do you think he was? He was once described as someone who had the air of his own statue. He was sort of your mind's eye image of the naval admiral. He looked the part. He was confident. He was brusque. Wasn't a person who entertained fools too often. He was a micro manager. He had to have his fingers in everything. He wanted to know what you were doing. He wanted to know why you were doing it. He was a man of the offense, not defense. You might recall that one of the generals in the Civil War on the union side was General McClellan. And he was in charge of the army of the Potomac. And Abraham Lincoln once said of him that he had a terminal case of the slows, meaning that he never did anything. He never advanced to just sat there with his army. He didn't do anything. Kimmel was the opposite. Kimmel wanted to go fight somebody. He wanted to go hit somebody. And his whole outlook was geared to getting the Pacific fleet in shape for going after the Japanese, which he and everyone in the Navy assumed would happen at some point. So in a way, he's your ideal manager. If you're the president, you want a guy who's not afraid to go onto the offensive. You want a guy who's going to take the fight to the enemy. And that was Kimmel's MO more than anything else. That's what he wanted to do. And he was getting ready to do it. So Kimmel arrives at Pearl Harbor in a moment of rising global tension. Can you talk a little bit about what his trajectory was prior to this post? Yes, he had held just about every post you can have in the Navy. He'd been in the Navy for four decades. He had commanded every kind of ship with one big exception that I'll mention. Everyone assumed that at some point in his career, he was going to be either the chief of naval operations, which is the top post in the Navy, or certainly in command of a major fleet. And that had happened when he was elevated to the job of commander of the United States fleet. And he was based in Hawaii, which is where the Pacific fleet had moved to from California as a warning to the Japanese. Franklin Roosevelt had ordered the fleet to move closer to Japan so that the Japanese would get a message. And it's from there that Kimmel hoped that if war came, he would be able to strike first, hit them first, or at least hit them hard. So I want to think about him now in comparison to someone else, sort of a counterpart, Admiral Harold or Betty Stark. What would you say were there sorts of differences in leadership styles and sort of understanding that they have different pressures because of the positions that they have? Stark and Kimmel were good friends. They had known each other for decades. Stark was almost the opposite in personality. Stark, I was about to call him Betty. You may wonder why people called him Betty. It's because he had an ancestor in the Revolutionary War who was killed and someone yelled, well, that makes Betty Stark a widow because the guy was no longer with us. And so for some reason, that became Betty's nickname or Stark's nickname. But he was pleasant. He signed every node or letter or memo. He urged people to stay cheerful. If he didn't say cheerful, people would think that something was wrong with him because that's what he exuded was positivity. He and Kimmel, as I said, were good friends. But Stark was someone whose operative philosophy was, you let your subordinates do their job. You don't micromanage them. Again, the opposite of Kimmel. You give them a general direction, a general instruction, and let them figure out how to do it. And that would prove literally fatal in the 12 days that we're talking about. He believes that if you rose to a position of high rank in the Navy, there was a reason for it. And the reason was that you were smart, that you were good, that you knew what to do and the right thing to do in a situation. So his kind of hands-off approach would be a major factor in what was about to happen. And that's actually a great transition because there's something in your book that comes through, which is someone who hasn't really taken much time with it might say, like, well, they're not really communicating that well. Army and Navy are sort of just trusting that the other one is doing what they should do. But in the way that I took your book to give the impression is that both sides really trust each other. DC, trust the Pacific Fleet, Pacific Trust, the DCs looking out for it. Would you say that some of the mishaps are not so much that it's not communication, but it's over too much trust that's given to each other? Absolutely. I think another way to look at it is that people assumed too much. They assumed that the guy at the other end was doing the right thing and therefore didn't require a phone call or a cable or a telegram to say, what are you doing? They trusted each other to do the right thing at the right time. And particularly with Stark, when the war warning was sent and just as in a side, the war warning is one of the most remarkable documents in the history of the United States Navy because it was so stark, no pun intended. It was so abrupt in what it said. I think there were, if I recall, nine words in the first sentence and it was, this is to be considered a war warning. And if you're familiar at all with Pearl Harbor, you kind of scratch your head, go, what? They were told that a war was coming. I thought this was a surprise attack. But in that war warning, there was an explicit order given to everyone on the Pacific and it was execute an appropriate defensive deployment. That wasn't a suggestion. It was a command from Stark to Kimmel and every other fleet commander in the Navy. And Kimmel more or less disobeyed the order. He would never have said he was disobeying it and others wouldn't call it that. But he didn't do what it just told him to do. And Stark never followed up to ask, are you doing what I suggested you do? Not suggested what I ordered you to do. You would think in a situation of rising tension, Washington would want to know what is going on out there in the islands. Are they doing what we want them to do? And Stark never did that. In the entire time of these 12 days, he never asked Kimmel to explain what he was doing in response to the various messages and instructions coming from Washington. So first of all, war warning is not like a term of art that had been used prior. Is that correct? That is correct. No one had ever seen that before. Kimmel testified, this was a phrase, what is that mean? What are you telling me? And the message was badly written because there were some other components that would cause Kimmel to think it didn't apply to him. It did. Stark had written it badly, but the order was nonetheless clear no matter how Kimmel was reading the message. And by the order, you mean assume some sort of state of readiness or like a make sure that you're in a defensive posture or what sort of thing are you saying that ought to have been taken from it that wasn't? If I can sum it up in two words, it's protect yourself. We think war is coming. You need to protect yourself. Now, what would Kimmel have done to protect himself? Well, the most obvious thing in which many of the investigations zeroed in on was you search. You search to see if someone is coming for you. And how do you search? Well, you could send out ships, but they're slow. The most obvious way to search is with planes. And there were certain kinds of navy planes that were made just for this purpose. And Kimmel could have sent them out and should have sent them out to look to see if someone is approaching whom we many have to worry about. Kimmel didn't do that. And there are reasons he didn't. As I said, he was a man of the offense. And he wanted to use his search planes to fly out in front of his fleet way out in the Pacific to be searching for the Japanese as he, Kimmel, is approaching them. He wants to find out what they're doing as he comes closer. He wanted the planes for that purpose not to be searching to protect the fleet anchored in Pearl Harbor. And Kimmel often argued he didn't have enough planes to do both. He couldn't protect his fleet when it was sailing out in the Pacific. And he couldn't search for the Japanese to see if they were coming. It had to be one or the other. And I don't think that's true. I think he had enough planes to do both. But he preferred not to. So if you put yourself sort of in a more understanding or accepting headspace, could the argument be made that he was like, I believe that Japan might be preparing for war, but it's not necessarily going to be in Hawaii. There's targets in Southeast Asia. It could have been British interests or other other sorts of like justifications that one could internally make. Then you say, ah, that makes sense. So it's reasonable. Absolutely. Everyone knew that the Japanese were on the march and that something was going to happen. Kimmel fought for many reasons that he was not a target. He was kind of on the periphery. Why would he think that? Several reasons. One is he's just so damn far away from Japan. And to get to him, the Japanese would have to sail thousands of miles risking detection and be far from home. They would also have to do something that's very technical but was key. And that's you have to refuel your ships in the open water. It's very hard to do. A tanker pulls up next to your ship and you string lines between them and pump fuel from one ship to another. And their ships did not have enough fuel to sail without being refueled at some point. And Kimmel knew that. He knew that because the US fleet would have to do the same thing going the other direction. But Kimmel also had I think a lot of the assumptions that most American naval officers had. And that was, well, the Japanese are kind of a lesser naval force. They're not a mechanical people. Looking back today and reading some of the things that was said about them is really kind of astonishing at the presumptive inferiority of the Japanese as military tacticians. They couldn't fly planes very well because their eyesight was different. They had to copy Western technology for their planes. And they're really not sailors like we are. So yes, there was a lot of racial prejudice, I think, toward the Japanese. And even with that, for years, the Navy had speculated that if war was to come, Pearl Harbor would be a target. And it makes sense because that's where the fleet was. And earlier in 1941, in fact, in one of the most remarkable documents of this whole story, a general and an admiral speculated that Japan could attack Hawaii by surprise at the start of a war using aircraft carriers that would sail all the way to Hawaii and catch the fleet unaware. This was in March of 1941. In other words, what, eight months prior to the actual event. And everyone sort of acknowledged, yeah, well, that's an interesting thought. And then they just dismissed it. They didn't think it could happen. They thought it would be crazy. This will sound kind of strange. But the moment the first bomb or torpedo exploded in Pearl Harbor was the beginning of a tragedy for Japan because they were going to lose the war. And ironically, it was the commander of the attack force who knew that better than anyone else. He opposed this venture because he didn't think Japan could beat the United States. Yeah, you know what, I'm actually glad you got there because the point that you brought up about this prejudice is sort of interesting because in the book, there's sort of two competing themes. It's both at like the Japanese aren't going to be good pilots. They don't have mechanical brains. They're not going to have the capacities to do this. But there's also this sense of like the Japanese are too smart to start a war like this because they know that they'll get crushed. So those sorts of tensions seem like something that people would have to sort of weigh individually. And it sounds like Kimmel came down on the side of like the Japanese just wouldn't be capable. Not the overestimation that they're like too smart to do this. Does that seem fair? That's a really good analysis. And I agree with it. There are facts in conflict here. And I think the missing ingredient is that we simply did not understand the Japanese mind very well. We didn't understand the importance of honor in the face of a feudal gesture. Yes, it's futile for us to do this, but honor demands that we do it. We expected them to always be rational the way we would be rational. And when we didn't really comprehend that they had another level of another impetus that was driving them to do what they did. And it kind of is outside our realm of understanding as to why they would have done that. But I think a lot of it has to do with a sense of we're just going to throw caution to the land and hope for the best. It was a kind of a collective act of insanity. Well, and when we think about who's on the US side there, there seems to be a variety of experiences in terms of who has fluency with the language experience in the culture or sort of an appreciation for Japanese history. Would you say that we under indexed on people who had that expertise or was it just sort of like the way of the world we weren't as connected back then? There were middle-level people who were pretty savvy about the Japanese because they had lived there. And certainly the ambassador in Japan during this time, he knew the Japanese and he knew what they were. He had an appreciation for their thought process that Washington didn't. The level of familiarity with Japanese culture and language at the highest levels of the American government was not high. Kimmel had been there, but not for long he had paid a visit with the great white fleet of Teddy Roosevelt back at the turn of the century. But he certainly had no knowledge of the Japanese. Stark didn't. I would say Franklin Roosevelt didn't. The mid-level intelligence officers did and they were the ones most worried about what seemed to be unfolding in those last days of November and first days of December. If success depends on knowing your enemy, I don't think we knew our enemy. Who, what a line. He's right, of course. And that fundamental misunderstanding certainly explains why US officials couldn't seem to put all the clues together in time. Steve and Lindsey will list some off right after this break. Hey everyone, it's Professor Jackson. A quick update about the Caribbean cruise replanting May 18th through the 22nd. I'm excited to announce that my friend Dr. Ben Sawyer, host of the Road to Now podcast, will be joining us as a special guest. It just adds to all the great history-centric activities we're planning while sailing from Fort Lauderdale to Key West and the Bahamas aboard the beautiful celebrity reflection. If you haven't heard, I've been working on a book for two years and I wanted to do something different. Something special celebrates publication. We're not only going to have the ultimate book club meeting where each guest will get an advanced signed copy of the book. I'm also going to give a special private performance of my live show. Ben and I will record a live podcast. We'll host a fun history trivia night contest where you can compete and test your knowledge with us. There'll be nightly group dining where you can meet other history of Fishing Autos, plus the usual excitement and relaxation that celebrity cruise is known for. We only have a limited number of cabins left and right now we're offering $100 off per cabin when you use the code HTDS to check out. Go to htdscruise.com and use the code HTDS for $100 off. Hope to have you aboard this spring for the history cruise that doesn't suck. I want to go back to talk about some of these indications that in hindsight we can see show that there's an indication that war or aggression is coming. Beyond the November 27th warning, what are some actions taken by the Japanese that looking back we can say, that's a signal that we missed as it was happening? That's a really good question. They kept coming almost on a daily basis and I'll see if I can give them a couple of them in chronological order. We had broken the Japanese diplomatic code, not their military codes. We hadn't broken the codes of the Japanese, the Imperial Navy or the Army, but we're reading their highest level diplomatic codes. On November 29th we read one that said things are automatically going to happen. This was Tokyo talking to its diplomats in Washington. Now that's both scary and vague. Well, what things and where? Where are those things going to happen and what are they? But it's clearly an ominous message. A couple days after that we detected something by listening to their radio traffic. We couldn't understand what their ships were saying to each other. Ship A talking to Ship B. We could read who was sending a message and who was receiving a message, but not what the message was. Every six months the Japanese changed those codes. A ship had a code on Wednesday and then a different one on Thursday. On December 1st, every ship in the Japanese fleet changed its code one month after they had previously changed it. They had never done that. They usually changed their codes every six months. That wasn't happening. They were clearly trying to confuse the listeners in Pearl Harbor by changing the message traffic codes again. The next day, the second of December, Kimmel's intelligence officer tells him, I don't know where four of their aircraft carriers are. The Japanese had 10 aircraft carriers and we can get to that in a minute. They had more than anyone else. And Kimmel's intelligence officer said to him, I know where this one is and I know where this one is. I don't know what they're saying, but I know where they are. But four of them, I don't know where they are. I think they're tied up in port. And when they're in port, they don't need to be on the radio. But he said that said that's only what I think. I don't know where they are. And Kimmel, at that point, as a joke, he later said to this man, you mean they could be coming around diamond head. Now, diamond head is many, no, is probably the most prominent landmark in all of the island of Hauahu. So he was speculating that they may be coming after him. The next day, December 3rd, everyone got to notice that the Japanese embassy and then the consulate in Hauahu were burning all of their papers. They were also destroying their code machines. Almost everyone in Washington read that as, oh, they are going to war. Now, not necessarily with us, but they knew that if war began, we would probably invade their embassies and their consulates and seize all their papers and all their code machines. So destroy them in advance. Kimmel interpreted that entirely differently. He interpreted that as, oh, they think we're going to go to war with them. We're going to attack them. So they are in anticipation of our aggression. They are going to get rid of their papers. That's, of course, the most benevolent interpretation you could put on what he was seeing. So by December 3rd, we had had day after day a mounting list of unusual activity. And no one in the Pacific thought war was not coming. If you read the newspapers in the US on December 5th, they're predicting war any minute. The surprise was not that there was war. The surprise was where the war started. And Kimmel had had all kinds of indications that it was coming almost any minute, but he had no indication that they were actually specifically coming for him. So when we talk about this, we have the sort of like military indications in the sense that they've lost the aircraft carriers. And they think they're just going to be bobbing in port. They know that the radio call signs are changed early. But it seems like there's also some diplomatic things that are sort of happening at the 11th hour between Secretary of State, Cordell Hull and Nomura Kishiburo. Can you tell us a little bit about what those signals were meaning at the time? Yeah, they had been negotiating for weeks. And why were they negotiating? And what were they negotiating? Well, the United States earlier in the year had cut off the supply of oil to Japan. Japan has almost no natural resources of its own that would be valued by a military. It has to import all of its oil. And it was getting most of its oil from the United States. Roosevelt had cut off the supply of oil in reaction to Japan's taking over of French into China. Japan was steadily on the march, invading places had been at war with Japan with China for years. And Roosevelt decided to draw a line in the sand by cutting off their oil. And so the negotiations were over the conditions under which oil deliveries would resume. And the negotiations weren't going very well because the position of the United States was simple. We will give back your oil if you just stop invading people. If you need resources, there's a way to get them short of using violence. And of course, all of the concessions would have to be made on the Japanese side, not the US side. There was nothing the US could concede what it would do other than give back the oil. So these negotiations were not going well. The US had given Japan a list of 10 points that it wanted Japan to agree to. It became clear that Japan, because we were reading their codes, was not going to agree to those 10 points. And on the evening of December 6th, it became obvious that something was going to happen because suddenly instructions were coming from Tokyo to the embassy in Washington that a message was to be delivered at a certain time to Cordell Hall, the Secretary of State, the next day. And it basically was saying we cannot agree to these 10 points. It didn't declare war. It didn't even indicate military action was coming anywhere. It simply said we're done talking about these 10 points. And that message, of course, got delayed because of translation difficulties and wasn't delivered until after the attack had already begun. And when you're talking about how these sorts of things are known, you're speaking about the purple cipher and how the intelligence from it is called magic. Or is this a diplomatic cable that just gets hung up in the sense that it doesn't get through because the tech is slow at the time? No, it's purple and magic where the in-house names for reading the machines and the results obtained by reading their diplomatic codes. And when a code was intercepted, you had to put it through the various deciphering machines. There's a physical process that takes a while. In the case of the famous last minute warning, there seem to have been just a problem on the Japanese and getting that message translated into English to present to Cordell Hall. Things were not functioning well at the Japanese embassy that day. Okay. I want us to move a little bit to the attack now. When we think about what the Japanese did exceptionally well, they did a very good job of being undetected for a number of days as they're coming. A fantastic job. Yeah, exceptional. You also alluded to the idea that trying to refuel on the open seas is difficult, something that it sounds like the US Navy thought they wouldn't be capable of doing. Correct. They managed that. There also is this question of will torpedoes be functional here or is everything too shallow and so it's not going to work? Can you speak about the innovations that they had on torpedoes that made them workable in shallow waters? That's a fascinating aspect of this that I think is frequently overlooked. And that's the whole issue of whether Pearl Harbor was susceptible to attack from air-launched, air-dropped torpedoes. And this was an issue not only for the United States and Japan. This was an issue with the British and the Italians and the Germans too. When you drop a torpedo from an airplane, this is a weapon no longer in use anywhere in the world. Nobody drops torpedoes from airplanes anymore. But when you drop a torpedo from a plane into the water, it's sheer weight. It's like 2,000 pounds. Means that it plunges pretty deep before it levels off and its little motor kicks in and it begins its journey to the target. So you see it, you need a certain amount of water in order to drop the torpedo. And in 1941, technology was evolving so that the depths to which a torpedo dropped was decreasing. And a message went to Kimmel in the summer of 41 saying, based on things we know from the Italians and British experience with torpedoes, you really can't assume that Pearl Harbor is safe no matter what its depth because people are getting better at shallowing out torpedoes. Now Pearl Harbor's depth was only about 45 feet. That's not much. And so Kimmel concluded on his own without any real factual basis for it that he wasn't at risk because you couldn't drop a torpedo into the harbor. It was simply impaled itself in the mud at the bottom of the harbor. And torpedoes is probably the greatest threat to a ship, more than shells fired from a gun. Because a torpedo puts a hole in the ship below the water line. And it immediately means you're going to start flooding. And so Kimmel decided he was not at risk from a torpedo. And it turned out that the first planes over Pearl Harbor were in fact Japanese torpedo planes. And their torpedoes did by far the most damage to the fleet. It seems like it's something where there was the option of putting torpedo nets out, but because we didn't think it was feasible that the torpedoes would work, they don't get deployed. Is that correct? That's correct. A net is like an underwater curtain. It floats on the surface and descends towards the bottom. And in theory, a torpedo is trapped or deflected by a net. And you put it around the outside of a battleship, you know, a few feet, few yards from the side of the ship. And it theoretically stops the torpedo. The problem is when the ship wants to get underway, you have to remove the net so it can get out. And that was sort of like a cumbersome time-consuming step that Kimmel didn't want to take. He wanted his ships ready to go. And so there were no nets in Pearl Harbor on the seventh, even though a fact that the attackers knew because the Japanese spy who was working in Oahu, Taikyo Yoshikawa had observed from just observation one of the oddities about Pearl Harbor for anyone who's been there is you can see the whole harbor if you go up a hill or to. And the spy had radioed to Tokyo. There are no nets. He could tell. There are no nets around these ships, which is exactly what Tokyo wanted to hear. And it sounds like when he's doing that reconnaissance, he gets a few things wrong in terms of specific types of ships and numbers of them, but that doesn't much matter by the time the attack is underway. He just got a couple of numbers wrong. He misidentified a couple of ships, but he was pretty accurate in saying that there are no nets. And I believe he also said there are no balloons floating over the fleet. You put up a large derogable like balloon in order to ensnare airplanes and make it difficult for them to fly. And he detected none of that. One of the things that people often forget about Pearl Harbor or know is that the Japanese had no way to know if the fleet was going to be in Pearl Harbor when they set sail from Japan. This was in an age before satellites. You couldn't look down on Pearl Harbor from a hundred miles up and know that the fleet was there. So the Japanese simply sailed on the hope that a meaningful portion of the fleet would be in Pearl Harbor. And in one sense, they got lucky because eight of the nine battleships in the Pacific Fleet were there. They got unlucky because neither of the two aircraft carriers was present. Those aircraft carriers were at sea. And as was evident on the day of the attack, the aircraft carrier was the weapon of the future. So not being there became extremely important for the American Navy's ability to recover from the attack. So when we're talking about attack that's pending, it's incoming. There is this question of radar. And it sounds like there's little radar tech, but some indication that something is happening. And then in your recollection of how Kimmel talks about this, he's like, I wish I would have attended to this more, but I didn't. Can you speak to us about the limits of radar or the limits of how it was deployed at that time in Hawaii? Radar was still a major national secret. The Army in Hawaii was technically in charge of protecting the fleet. It had mobile radar stations set up around the island where crews were really more or less practicing. They weren't there because there was perceived to be an obvious threat. Radar at the time was much more limited in its ability than it is now. You could tell that someone was out there. You really couldn't tell the speed or even the altitude at which someone was flying. So Kimmel kind of dismissed the whole idea of, I don't want to say dismiss. He wasn't paying much attention because he considered that an army function. They're supposed to protect my ships while we're here. And the radar crews that were out there on December 7th hadn't been told to be looking for an actual attack. They were more or less running drills. And the most famous, of course, was on what is today known as Opana Point. It's on the north shore of Oahu. And there were two guys who had the historic misfortune of or fortune, I don't know which, of using their radar that morning, doing their drills and then picking up something. And by two guys, you mean two young privates, like very, yeah. Two young privates, one of whom said, Ah, it's probably our planes coming in. And the other one, the younger of the two, I think one was 24 and one was 22, said, no, we should phone this in. And they did. They eventually phoned it in and said, we've picked up something inbound. We don't know who it is. At the other end was a pilot who was in charge that morning of the operations center. He didn't know anything more about radar than the two privates. And he basically said, those are probably our planes coming in. So don't worry about it. And in fact, there were American planes on their way in that morning. They were big bomber B17s coming from San Francisco. Their misfortune was to arrive over a while. It precisely the moment the Japanese did. And they had many harrowing experiences. But the last minute salvation that could have occurred if someone had paid attention to the radar warning, never unfolded because this was dismissed as nothing to worry about. And it sounds like it's sort of the start and a series of different people up the chain, believing that these might be false reports or that these look like it's going to just be people that we know friendly planes that are coming through. Does that sound right? Right. If there's a hero in this story, it is a man named William Outerbridge, who was lieutenant in the Navy and had just taken command for the first time in his entire career of a ship. The ship was the USS Ward, which was a destroyer. And his mission that Sunday morning was to patrol the sea just off the entrance to Pearl Harbor, just as a precaution in case submarines tried to sneak past him and into the harbor. And even though Outerbridge had never commanded anything, that morning he did everything right. And his crew picked up visually what seemed to be a small submarine-like ship approaching the harbor. He didn't hesitate. He ordered the ship to go after it. It's often been said that the first shots of the Second World War were fired by the US Navy, because he fired on this ship, which was in fact the small Japanese mini-submarine trying to get into Pearl Harbor. He immediately radioed, and had fired upon a submarine in the entrance to the harbor. This message started up the chain of command. Nobody was reacting particularly, energetically. If anyone had, there would have been no time to get the fleet out of the harbor, which is the safest solution, because it's hard to hit a moving ship on the open sea. But it would have enabled all the ships in the harbor to go to general quarters or battle stations. And everyone manned their anti-aircraft guns, and at least be able to shoot at what was soon coming at them. But no such message ever reached any ship. And Outerbridge's message was wasted. Well, and this is actually a great way to get us back to talking about Kimmel, because in the book, you write that when the Outerbridge message is relayed to Kimmel, he doesn't issue any orders. And he says, I was not at all certain that this was a real attack. In the minutes after he has that thought, it becomes clear that this is a very real attack. And as you said earlier, this offensive posture does sort of serve the Americans well in the sense that there's a lot of training that they've been doing. Can you speak to us about the training that's happening under Husband Kimmel? He was a fanatic for getting his ships in shape. He wanted to make sure everyone knew where to be, what they were to do, which orders to obey in what order. He practiced and practiced and practiced. And the condition of the fleet, the readiness condition of the fleet, had gone up dramatically. Remember, he wanted to go after the Japanese, so he wanted to have his ships ready to do that. In the event, of course, their first exposure to war was on the receiving end, on the defensive end, but they responded remarkably, considering it was 750 on a Sunday morning, and many of the crew members on these ships were asleep. Many of them had been out the previous night in the bars of Honolulu. And they responded with remarkable quickness and kind of heroic glory, because these were kids in many cases, but they knew what to do. Heroes is the right word. Those brave kids stood their ground and tried to do what they could. Lindsay's conversation with Steve continues after a quick break, as they discuss some poignant moments during the attack and the aftermath. I've got to say that reading this, you're minute by minute writing on the attack itself. It is spellbinding. I thought it really captured the magnitude of the moment. Thank you. And something an image that stuck with me is you have this part where you're talking about Admo William S. Pye sitting with sit on his face in a days, and he has an oily life jacket on, and just that prior day, he had said something to others about how Japan would never attack the US. How did you decide to include that, or what was the most difficult part in deciding which eyewitnesses accounts to include to make your point? You know, there really was no restriction on who to include. If there's an anecdote, a telling moment, and that is one, I'm going to include it. It's such a good revealing piece of information, and Admo or Pye had just arrived covered with sudden oil from his battleship California, which had been hit numerous times. I think almost simultaneous is the fact that Kimmel is hit by a bullet. A machine gun, we assume a machine gun bullet comes through the window of the Pacific Fleet headquarters. By that point, it had lost much of its velocity. It was a spent bullet, and it hits him in the chest. That's almost poetic beyond belief, but the man who thought this wouldn't happen ends up being hit by a bullet fired in the midst of it, and is reported to have said, it would have been better if it had killed me. He knew at that moment, I think, that his career was over. He was presiding over the worst days before or since in the history of the US Navy, and in the Navy, the tradition is those who are in charge are responsible, and he knew his career was going to end. I think that's why there's some dispute as to whether he actually said it, but to wish that it killed him certainly indicates he had an awareness that this was all going to fall on his shoulders. Let's start to talk about blame. At the end of this, like you said, there's multiple investigations to try to figure out what went wrong, what didn't happen. You started by saying that Stark and Kimmel were friends. Does it seem like their friendship persists as this investigation is happening, and once blame gets me to doubt? No, they had a falling out, because Kimmel believed that Stark had failed to keep him apprised of what they were learning through the magic and purple intercepts. He felt that Stark had left him out there without sufficient information. There was nothing in the diplomatic intercepts that ever said we're headed to Pearl Harbor and the date is December 7. So, Kimmel knew that he wasn't in the loop of magic. Only, I think it was 12 people were receiving the results of magic. Kimmel wasn't one of them, but he knew they were trying back there to break the diplomatic codes. He also knew from messages he was getting that referenced something called purple. He didn't know what purple was, but he assumed that it had to do with cryptological efforts to break into what the Japanese were reading. But he blamed Stark for what it happened. I don't think they ever spoke again. Kimmel wrote a really nasty, I will say, a really emotional letter to Stark basically saying you failed me. He never sent it. He was talked out of it as I think it was one of his sons had indicated. I may be wrong on that. That you shouldn't send this. It's just too brutal. And he probably was also bothered by the fact that Stark really didn't suffer any punishment publicly in the way that Kimmel and the army commander did. Stark was the chief of naval operations and he was moved out within a few months, but not fired. He went to become the chief US naval representative in London for the rest of the war or at least for much of the rest of the war. So he wasn't publicly fingered as responsible for what had happened. Even though there are things he did that or rather more things he didn't do that he should have done. He should have taken a more active role in figuring out or understanding what Kimmel was doing out in Hawaii to protect himself. So there's been a decades-long campaign to clear husband Kimmel's reputation. His sons and then his grandsons and others have long argued he was made into the fall guy for the entire attack. I think a better way to look at it is that it's not that Kimmel and Stark shouldn't be blamed. I think they should be. It's that other people weren't blamed who should have been. I think the problem on the Washington end, no one suffered hit head end for the failure of December 7th. As I mentioned, I think Stark probably deserved more blame that he got. But I don't think there's any question that Kimmel and George should bear responsibility for what happened because they had a tremendous amount of information that they didn't act on. And as someone said, you know, you're an outpost out there in Hawaii. Add an outpost, you're supposed to be vigilant. You're protecting us back here. That's your job. That's why you're there. And Kimmel didn't do that. So it seems like when we think about blame, we're willing to assign individual blame for leadership failures. What about systemic failures that led to changes in the way that the operations communicated with each other or that things were done in the future? What sort of changes came from that? That's a really good question. Clearly, Pearl Harbor has, I think, lessons that go way beyond warfare. And I'll offer a couple lessons. One of Kimmel's flaws during this was his refusal to change his plans and the face of contrary information. And I think that's something we're all guilty of. We have a plan. We want to do X. And then information comes in that says, uh, doing X would be a bad idea. But we've worked for months on this plan. We can't change it. Kimmel resolutely stuck to his ambition to go on a great offensive as soon as the war broke out. And even as day after day information came in that said, no, no, you need to be on the defensive. He didn't change. I mean, the fact that he could look at the warning about torpedoes and say, doesn't apply to me is, I think, exhibit A of a refusal to say, hmm, I may have to do something that I wish I didn't have to do. But information is telling me, I need to do. A second thing I think we can all benefit from is the dangers of assumption. Stark over and over assumed that Kimmel was doing the right thing. He never asked, he never investigated. I think you could have asked in a way that didn't seem like you were micromanaging. To me, the most tragic episode in the entire sequence of days occurred on the night of December 7th when Stark finally gets on the phone with one of Kimmel's deputies. You know, the Japanese had left. Kimmel was coping with the horrors out in the harbor. And Stark's first question, he asked him were the planes out and that Admiral, he was talking to at first, didn't answer the question and Stark wouldn't let it go. Can you tell me, did our planes go out and find them? And finally, this Admiral says, no, they weren't out. And there was the revelation on Stark's point that he had assumed they were, but he'd never asked, not until then. So, you know, we could all do well by examining our assumptions. And I think Pearl Harbor is a great example of what happens when you make too many assumptions. And also when you are unable kind of emotionally to change your plans. Steve, I want to thank you for your time and I have one final question to put to you, which is, is do you think that there is any sort of detail or success about the US posture and Pearl Harbor that you think should be more emphasized or more widely remembered by people? We tend to focus on the failures, but are there bright spots from how we did this? Not many. I would cite someone I've already mentioned. I think it took tremendous presence and courage for this lowly lieutenant on a, the story or on his first day in command to do everything right. He had been trained and told, this is what you're going to do and he did it. And I found that really admirable. Is that a message for us beyond him? I think it's, you know, doing your job is, is commendable. But December 7 was overall a terrible day for the United States. And as I said for Japan, I don't know that there were a whole lot of bright spots. The performances of the crew, the crews in the harbor on that morning was commendable. I don't know that there are larger points that we can point to and say, boy, they did all that right on that day. All right. Thank you so much for your time today. This has been wonderful talking with you, hearing your perspective, understanding your expertise and learning more about this history. Thank you. Well, my friends, that wraps up this up a log episode. If you want more, I invite you to join our membership program where right now, you can listen to an extra story narrated by me about the nine, yes, nine, official government inquiries into the events at Pearl Harbor. HTDS will always be widely available, supported by ads. However, the HTDS membership program offers ad free episodes delivered early, plus extra stories and deep ducks. You can start a free seven day trial to access that content at HTDS Podcasts.com. I'll see you back here in two weeks with stories of Japanese aggression in the spring 1942. History that doesn't suck is created and hosted by Greg Jackson. Special thanks to episode co-hosts Professor Lindsey Kormack and author Steve Tumor, produced by Dawson McRaw, associate producer Ella Henderson. Production by Airship, sound design by Molly Bach, theme music composed by Greg Jackson, arrangement and additional composition by Lindsey Graham with Airship. For bibliography of all primary and secondary sources consulted and writing this episode, visit HTDSPodcast.com. HTDS is supported by fans at HTDSPodcast.com slash membership. My gratitude to Kind Souls for buying funding to help us keep going with. Thank you. And a special thanks to our patrons, whose monthly gift puts them after these two status. 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