It's been 10 days now since President Trump said that the war in Iran was quote, very complete pretty much. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it or we could go further and we're going to go further. I could call it. That is an idea that the Trump administration has repeatedly asserted over nearly three weeks of war in Iran, even as Iran launched attacks throughout the region on U.S. military bases, on energy infrastructure, and on cities like Riyadh and Dubai. Even as Iran brought shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a screeching halt and sent oil prices soaring. Over the past week, President Trump has said that the war would be wrapped up soon. And we're going to have a much safer world when it's wrapped up. That this little excursion, as President Trump calls it, would not go on much longer. The way ahead of schedule, nobody would have thought. And that the war would end when he feels it in his bones. Consider this. President Trump keeps saying that the war will be over soon. That may no longer be strictly under his control. From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. This message comes from WISE, the app for international people using money around the globe. You can send, spend, and receive, and up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Be smart. Get WISE. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. Tease and seize, apply. It's consider this from NPR. At the moment, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran looks more like it's escalating than slowing down. On Wednesday, Israel attacked a crucial Iranian natural gas field. Iran responded Thursday with a strike on the world's biggest liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar. And at a press briefing Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegsef confirmed reporting that the Pentagon would seek additional funding for the war. As far as $200 billion, I think that number could move, obviously. It takes money to kill bad guys. But he said that any assertion that the mission was widening was, quote, noise. And Hegsef reiterated the administration's position that President Trump himself would decide when the war is finished. It will be at the president's choosing, ultimately, where we say, hey, we've achieved what we need to on behalf of the American people to ensure our security. But not everyone thinks that ending the war will be so simple. I talked to Thomas Wright about that. He served as senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council under President Biden. He writes in The Atlantic that any off-ramp in Iran is disappearing. So the Trump administration has basically said that the end of the war is in President Trump's hands, that Trump can declare mission accomplished, essentially, whenever he wants. And then at that point, this war will be over. Do you think that will be the case? Yeah, I think his initial goal was a Venezuela-style model where, after the Supreme Leader was killed, he would do a deal with the number two, number three, number four, who'd be willing to work pragmatically with him and maybe cut the US in on oil revenue or have some economic arrangement. But that possibility disappeared as more and more of the leadership were killed. And as Mashaba, Hamadi became the new Supreme Leader. And then his off-ramp was really declaring victory and getting out. And I think that's become much more difficult over the last week because the cost of the war arising, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran strikes on the Gulf States continues, including on energy infrastructure. And so if he were to stop military operations now, I think it would look more like a stalemate than the victory he wants. Is it your sense that Iran actually wants this war to continue? I think Iran only wants the war to end when it has some guarantee that he won't be back in six or eight or 10 months to strike again if it rebuilds. I think they want to impose a cost on the US and in Israel to deter a future strike. And so I don't think they would necessarily accept an unconditional cessation. Okay, well, let's talk about these possible off-ramps here. You outlined some potential paths forward for this administration. One is taking a bit of a military gamble. Can you describe what that might look like? Yeah, I think President Trump could take greater risks to try to achieve a major tactical victory that would allow him to say that he has achieved his objectives and to end the war so he could try to take Karg Island where a lot of Iran's oil is. This is the principal oil export hub for Iran. Exactly. And he could order a military raid on some of the nuclear facilities in Isfahan or Nance to take the highly enriched uranium. But those are extremely high risk operations the US could easily take or possibly take casualties. You do say that another possibility is simply to wage a longer war, but you don't see that as plausible. Why not? Well, I think he may end up there anyway, but he is not prepared for a longer war. He's not prepared at the American Public Health Congress for it. And munitions and air defenses are being depleted. And so he intended this to be three to four weeks long. I think he said maybe a little bit longer at the beginning. If this goes on for three, four, five months with oil prices skyrocketing, potentially casualties on the Allied side higher than they are now with no clear end in sight, I think it will become a very different animal. This administration continues to highlight that it has achieved overwhelming military success. Is it unreasonable to think that continually degrading Iran's military would eventually weaken the regime to the point where it is simply forced to give up? They're measuring that purely based on inputs on the number of targets they're hitting, but not necessarily on the effects. So Iran's strikes on the region continue. It strikes on energy facilities continue. The Strait of Ermuz remains closed. President Trump sort of downplays that and says, well, we've destroyed their Navy. It's just some guys with a mine on the coast dropping one in now. And again, I think that fairly dramatically understates it. But I think they are spinning a story that the war has already been won when it obviously has not. Another possible off-ramp is, of course, a negotiated settlement. But that seems pretty hard to imagine at this moment, don't you think? Yeah, I think it would be very difficult to imagine, partly because I think Iran will hold out for a deal that is more favorable to it than what it would have gotten before the war started. But I think that would be very tough for President Trump to accept. And so Iran is sort of counting on as the economic cost increases and the energy markets are roiled, that Trump will look at compromise, messy compromises over time. Well, the Trump administration continues to argue that this war in Iran is different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which it says were the result of blunders by foolish politicians. But let me ask you, how much of a risk is there that this conflict in Iran turns into a similar mess with repercussions that last years and years? No one intends wars initially to be very long. And certainly, George W. Bush intended the war in Iraq to be short. The administration's view is that the reason those were long was rules of engagement that inhibited the U.S. from using force as much as was needed. I think that is demonstrably not true. And the second thing they say is that Bush tried to build democracy in Iraq and they're not concerned about building a democratic Jeffersonian democracy. But I think that also misrepresents the challenge because what governments find in these situations is they're trying to establish any type of government that does not view them as an enemy and is sort of stable domestically and avert sort of a descent into chaos. So they too have this problem. Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former director for strategic planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you. This episode was produced by Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Tinbeat Ermius. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Consider This sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get Consider This Plus at plus.npr.org. That's plus.npr.org.
