Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson

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And if you've ever felt like there has to be more to the story, this show is for you. Listen to If You Can Hear Me on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Noman. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional, better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? I'm great. I'm freaking fantastic. I feel like it's been a weirdly, tell me if you agree. It feels like a weirdly quiet Super Bowl week. And what I mean by that is the line has stayed the same. There hasn't been a lot of, you know, Super Bowl opening night, quote, controversy. It's been four and a half, It's 45 and a half injuries. Haven't been an issue. I just feel like I actually feel like in the last 48 hours, NFL news has been subsumed by NBA trade deadline. It just feels like a very sort of quiet Superbowl week right now. I guess I'm just in a bubble. I would, I know nothing about NBA trade news at all. NFL wise, I guess you're right. Maybe there's not a pop because it's not, we're coming off a high of my homes, right? this run of Mahomes, I mean, going for the three-peat last year. That's right. He's just been on this incredible run. It's hard to get fired up, I won't lie, for Sam Darnold Drake. It just is. If this was Josh Allen finally made it or Lamar finally made it, I would probably have a little bit more juice. But, yeah, maybe that's what's lacking, I think, for the general public. But, yeah, my world, it's never-ending, Chad. Everyone's got an opinion. and I would say it's hit probably 65%, 60-ish percent. All pros I've talked to are pretty confident on the Patriots side. Really? Yeah, they're feeling pretty good, Chad. So I really thought it was going to be super, super Seahawks heavy, but it seems like it's definitely the pros. They're taking positions on this Patriots team, but I say it all the time. It's in a one-game coin flip type of scenario, the Super Bowl is so random. I'm not going to let it worry me too much. If this was week five, I would tell you right now, we might be in some trouble, Chad. But it's not. It's a Super Bowl week. I'm dug in. Love the Seahawks still. I've just leaned into it totally. And, yeah, it's just fun because so many opinions are changing every day. I mean, all last week it was all Drake Mays banged up. Then this week, Seahawks, their star rookie safety, rolling an ankle last play of the game, and now everyone's freaking out about the Seahawks. So some injury worry. But yeah, at the end of the day, I think you're right. It's been a pretty mellow week, right? No, no, no, not too much drama, no real madness from the media side of things. Someone needs to start dating Taylor Swift stat to start getting some storylines going on here. Since this is our Thursday pre-Super Bowl episode, it's all it's going to be mostly props. We have a very special guest we're going to get to in a minute. We are going to have our Brass Balls better the week. We are going to have the final Chad's choice of the season. I want to do that in one second. But you said something to me very interesting the other day that I think is germane and relevant to the show we're doing today. regardless of the sides so much more of the action is on the props and I feel like this year more than ever we started here about it last year where Saquon Barkley became the action that every book needed right it was Saquon Barkley touchdown Saquon Barkley rushing yards whatever it was every book needed him not to do anything in that game this year we're hearing the same thing again it's all about the props what else are you hearing from professionals about are they leaning more into the props and the sides are you getting that sort of feeling as well yeah props props will always be again it's it depends on how old the professional is like if i know plenty of professionals below the age of 30 they don't even do sides or totals they only do props so for them this is their the super bowl is the holy grail because you can get so much money down on these props at all different books we're doing the regular season you are lucky to get above a 1k bet on a prop yeah i mean the books they're just so keen to it they know these pros can get insane value on these these numbers so yeah the prob markets heated up i mean we talk a little bit about you know these prediction markets that's a whole another world that's really heated up in the prop market because I mean you can make prop bets on just about every little thing on these on these sites yeah so um yeah it's it's really opened things up I remember my first time in Vegas for the Super Bowl seeing a sheet of 200 props was mind-blowing like I'll just never forget I was like this is overwhelming this is going to take me all two weeks to get through it now it's like thousands I mean thousands of different props you anything you can think of I mean it's it really is a wild time so yeah it's I would say you're you're right with your assessment the guys are really taking a position on props but um yeah the old school guys and like most guys that I talk to they're still harping about totals first half totals you know first first half sides full game size full game totals and that's really that's that's what these guys love to bet right they're gonna have their models and their opinions on the number and the total so um it's still heavy to that but yeah i would definitely say the new age the next generation from 21 up to 39 40 props all props all the pros i talked to it's just i'm the same way i like betting stupid props i mean you want me to have a fat lineman catch a touchdown i'm betting it you want me to have a the over two and a half different passing pass attempts in the game i'm betting i I want to bet on Cooper cup throwing a pass. So I'm, I'm totally on board. Right. I told old heads, these types of bets. They're like, you're a sucker. You're throwing your money away. They just, they're from a different world. So yeah, it's definitely a, an age split on props. So it's funny. You know, one of the guys I'm, I'm talking to for the book that I'm writing, he has focused his entire career on props and yeah, it's hard to get money. It's hard to get money down. It's you know, it's been a fascinating thing to write about for the book. And we'll obviously talk more about the book, you know, when it's about to come out many, many, many, many months from now. But, and I write all about like how hard it is to get money down, how hard it is to scale, you know, and how hard, it's just a grind. It's a massive, massive grind. And a lot of guys who are professionals, they really do sort of, they scale out of it because it does become so difficult and it's hard to build a network of getting money down with other people and things like that. But we were texting the other day, he's in Vegas now. And I said to him, I really like the Seahawks. He said that he was betting one of the props he bet. He goes, it's stupid, but one of the props I bet, Seattle minus 31 at plus 3,100 or something like that, which made me feel better because I have been layering Seattle alts in a variety of ways, which I want to talk to you and our guest about. It also made me feel better because before we get to our guest, and we're going to be talking so much about props, I do want to give out our final category bets of the season. Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is one of those Seattle alts, Seattle minus six and a half plus 115 at Hard Rock Bet. That is number one. Number two, Brass Balls, Bet of the Week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. This one, it's so gross and so yucky. I can't believe we're offering it, Simon. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. New England Patriots first drive punt, minus 113. Gross. Just gross. It's gross. Are these new graphics, Matt Mitchell? I love them, man. I love the new graphics for the Super Bowl. Stepping it up. All right. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe. And like this video while you're at it, you can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, etc. All right. Props are popular. We've been talking about it. We're doing our prop episode today with one of our favorite people from the Action Network. A man who dives deep into the props. A man who has given out long shout future winners to both you and I. long shop prop winners, one of the most creative thinkers in the business. I am talking about our former colleague, Brandon Anderson. Welcome, Brandon. Hey, guys. How's it going? Well, it's great. I'm feeling really good now that I know all the wise guys are on the Patriots. You know, it's funny, after I've been betting my brains out on the Seahawks, and not just that, and we're going to get into the props, But I feel like the entire sort of narrative I've built for this game is based on Seahawks controlling the ball, Patriots needing to come back in this game. Do you have a broad opinion at this point? Yeah, I think it's interesting as I heard you talk about the Seattle minus four and a half, six and a half, 31. That's where I started, like coming out of championship Sunday. I was like, all right, well, season's over. We saw the Super Bowl. We saw Seahawks Rams. We got our winner. We found out who they're going to beat. Let's find out how much they're going to win by. And for like 10 days of this process, that's where it was. And then you start listening to some of the other content. Some of you're trying to, you know, think, well, what am I missing? What's the opposite of my view? And start being like, well, what about this thing? What about play action? What about the Patriots, this thing? And you start kind of coming back the other way. You're like, man, I don't know. Four and a half is kind of a lot. You know, the underdogs are covering all these numbers lately. and I thought I was going to pull all the way back. And then I did my last prep these last couple of days and made my final picks. I was like, yeah, yeah, no, Seattle. We're on Seattle. Seattle is the spot to be. This is what I thought. And two, it's interesting with Super Bowl. You know, normally we're preparing on a Sunday for like 14 games or something. You're finding angles all over the place. And suddenly you got one game and two weeks of shows and content to fill for one game. And it's like, okay, so what do you do? Do you choose this is the game and this is the script and this is exactly what I think? I'm going to bet that 12 different ways and here's my menu. Or do you say, OK, choose your own adventure? If Seattle's up early, here's the bet for that. If I'm wrong and the Patriots return the opening kick for a touchdown, what's the bet for that? How do I bet? Do you cover your bases and kind of give yourself four or five scripts for the Super Bowl? or you just say this is the one that I most agree with and go all in. And, you know, I think you can do either one of those if you're doing it right. Oh, shit, Brandon. Don't fucking hedge. Don't be a coward. Over here, my little fund, we're going all in, brother. We are all in on whatever the Seahawks are going to do in this game. It's Seahawks or bust for us. I believe Chad Chad no longer is allowed to sit on the fence here I've literally beat him down to a man that he I make him pick a side and it's it's the way it should be it's tough we all hate doing it but yeah I'm totally in line with him where it's like I was wavering a little bit about the Patriots right you hear so much noise and it's like oh my god am I missing something here but I'm back all in the Seahawks as well so not all the professionals chat are on the Patriots right there are still some of us on the chalky side with the Joe public, but yeah, it's, I was definitely shocked to hear how many people have taken a position on the Patriots. Cause I did think it was going to be the world versus their sports books, but the, all things are, all things have evened out in the world, Chad. Don't worry. The pros are on one side, the public's on the other. We are the public in this game. I don't, I don't mind. I don't mind being shocking. All right. Brandon, let's kick off with the unit you feel most confident in right now which is the Seahawks defense you've just explained you've come down on the side of the Seahawks it is going to be because of the Seahawks defense why are you so confident in this Seahawks defense and how it matches up with what the Patriots can do from a betting point of view yeah so it's it's Seahawks defense and it's also Patriots offense being actually the thing I maybe feel least confident with this matchup as well so to me all year long looking at all 32 teams the two units that I most believed in Rams offense Seahawks defense we saw that we saw that match we saw playoff three times we saw these firework showdowns and we saw them like number one DVOA offense Rams number one DVOA defense Seahawks since week 13 The CX gave up 64 points to the Rams they gave up 44 points to everybody else on the schedule in that stretch 44 points on 62 drives defensively two touchdowns seven points a game to anybody other than the Rams and that includes two 49ers games that we thought the 49ers were this buzz to offense until they weren't anymore well you know Purdy and blah blah blah No, they were crushing everybody. And then they weren't because they played the Seahawks. That's how good the defense has been at everything. Patriots offense, meanwhile, had all the good numbers in a regular season because we all know about how soft the schedule was. Now they're facing these tough defenses and the numbers are ghastly. Since 1979 is how long it's been since we have a team averaging 18 points a game that made the Super Bowl. 1979. They're averaging negative 0.73 EPA per drive, the Patriots so far. That's basically the Jets regular season number. The Patriots offense has been the Jets offense. For comparison, it's the worst EPA per drive for Super Bowl team since the 2000 Ravens or the 2015 Broncos. Guess what? Those are defense teams. Those are all in defense teams that we knew that at the time that had just enough offense. That's not what the Patriots are supposed to be. So if you're buying Patriots right now, I think you have to be buying that it's this suddenly hyper elite defense. The offense hasn't really shown up all season long. Drake may hasn't really faced a lot of great competition. So suddenly now his numbers are dropping 33rd percentile EPA in the playoffs among quarterbacks, 33rd percentile against top 10 defenses on the season. He's had nine games a season with a PFF grade 60 or higher. Here's who they're against. Miami, the Jets, Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee, and the Giants. Hooray for you. Congrats on your above average games. Only four of those since week seven. He's had eight games, 50 percentile or below PFF and EPA. Six since week seven. Seattle's held quarterbacks to that marked 14 out of 19 games. So this to me is a real mismatch. And Seattle, we know how good their run defense is. Patriots are not going to be able to run the ball in this game. They're not, haven't been a good run team anyways. Patriots really rely on explosive plays. Number one all season, but Seattle is second against explosives. Drake May's air yard throws have dropped from early in the season until late in the year. Seattle's number one against Whitey 0-1. So that's Stephon Diggs. It's okay. You can't run the ball. You can't throw a lot to Diggs. You can't go deep to booty. What's left? Then we just took the whole offense away if that's what's happening. And we're talking about the offensive line. We've seen Will Campbell. We've seen those rookies on the left side really struggle as the season's gone on. We know Seattle's pressure rate. So to me, coming out swinging here, Patriots team total under 20 and a half. That's the first bet I'm going to give out here. Patriots have only gone under that four times all season, but two of them in the playoffs already. Seattle has held non Rams opponents under 20 and a half in 13 of 16 games this season. So throw out the number one Rams offense, and this is hitting 13 of 16 times, 15 points a game. And two of those three overs came in garbage time, one in the final minute. I'll give you a trivia. Who's the team that actually went over 20 and a half? That's not the Rams. Do either of you know from the season who beat the Seahawks 21 points or better? well beat the Seahawks or not who put up 21 or more over this line Arizona Cardinals Arizona I believe was at 20. Okay then I was really issued this season it's a quarterback that got hurt and was much worse late in the season Baker Baker is correct the Buccaneers dropped I think 38 I believe on the Seahawks. They won that game. I actually won that bet. Yeah. By the way, these are also both bottom four in pace neutral as well. So I think we're going to get a slower game overall. That can help an under as well. I'm not positive. We'll talk about the other side of the ball. I'm not positive about Seattle's offense, New England's defense yet. I just don't think New England's going to score very much. So Patriots under 20 and a half. All right. Look, everything you just said makes me feel so much better. So So, like, Simon, why are people coming in on the Patriots? What do we think here? I mean, honestly, a lot of it is because of the trends of the dogs. Like I told you, if you just blindly bet the dogs down the Super Bowl, the public is giving you a free point to two points every time. And you've seen the books have gotten so much sharper. I mean, I think back to that Giants. What did they open? 13 plus 13 against the Patriots. and it got bet down to like 11 and a half by kickoff. But those days feel long gone. They'll never have those type of snares again because that's what we feel like we have right here. I feel like that's how big this spread should be. The Patriots feel so lucky to be here. They've earned it. I've said it all along the way. They've earned it. They've won those games. But the path, you cannot overlook the path they took to get here and how favorable it was for this team. And this is the ultimate test. the fact that they're looking at is you're fading Sam Darnold as a four and a half point favorite in the Super Bowl that's basically the basis of most guys I talk to where it's like isn't that a lot to give to a guy who had one great game in the playoffs which is what he did that Rams game was incredible it was great I feel like he found something in that game that is why they're just like you're betting a lot on a guy who had one good game where we have three other games where he you know you can say he didn't do much against the 49ers I still think he made big time throws but last year against the Rams and then last year against the Lions and that biggest games he did not show up and he faltered and he played really poorly and I think a lot of guys are still holding that against him so it's a big number like we said four and a half is a big number we're talking about a one game sample winner take all type of matchup but I I said to you Chad I still think it's it's because of that because of the the dog success I think it's gone the other way we're getting two free points on the favorite now where it's shifted too much to giving the dog too much respect here so um it's it is like you said it's it's interesting where you look at all the numbers and it is everyone knows this Patriots team's overrated and that's what's so funny these Patriots fans get so upset about it why would you care you're in the dance you made it it's like it's it's very bizarre how they're reacting to it where it's like you guys know you had a soft schedule you know they beat the teams you beat yes you won those games and it was tons of respect but it's like come on I mean were you really going to act like the path of Herbert CJ and then a backup quarterback was you know the hardest path every Super Bowl no but when you look at the Seahawks their whole season that was a tough path they were in the hardest division in football so I just don't get why they're they don't they're like oh so upset everyone's picking the Seahawks why would they not be why would anyone in national media who basically always picks chalk why would they pick the Patriots it's like I just it at the surface level it doesn't really make sense but um yeah I like you said I'm hearing Anderson say all that stuff about all those numbers I'm just like you Chad that made me feel so much better inside where it's like I I'm waving a little bit because it feels too easy I think you have the same feeling but it's like no stick to it we're bent into a good number I really am confident this Yawks team Let's do a quick word in from our friends at Hard Rock. 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If I'm going to be on the Seahawks, what are my laddering intervals here? If I've got it three and a half, four and a half and 25 and a half, am I doing six and a half Am I doing nine and a half Am I doing 13 and a half Like is that what I should be doing Yes I was going to ask about that So I this year I often have done five and a half and nine and a half as kind of the starting escalator modes And then from there, you know, basically, you're just looking at, okay, what are key numbers? And then how can I just kind of keep ducking below the key numbers? I get to choose as I go up, you know, that the main number they're putting out, we're going to get action on both sides to hone in on the number. But so to me, I like five and a half, we've seen this year and more the last few years, some sixes along with the sevens. So I like to get under both of those if I can. It's usually not a huge difference. Nine and a half to get out of the 10. And then maybe I go like 16 and a half, 23 and a half, you know, just kind of like hitting a touchdown at a time on the way up or something like that. And just kind of slowly a little bit less each time. I think too, we're going to get into the props, but you can sort of correlate and say, okay, well, if they're gonna win by 20 30 points if that is the outcome how'd they get there did jsn have the huge game did holani come in and get a last touchdown because walker is already out celebrating on the sidelines like you can kind of get creative with okay if this is the script what are some other long numbers i can play rather than just the spread and you can or you can build the same game parley and say okay let's put a bunch of these together did darnold hit the yards and we got the JSN game, and that's why we got this big number as well. All right. Sam, you got any thoughts on that? You think I'm being crazy? No, you're having fun. That's Super Bowl. I tell people all the time, the Super Bowl is supposed to be fun. Spread out your stuff. Like me, the old comundrum, I'm going to put 50% of my equity into the minus 6.5. To me, that's fun. The fact that I'm not betting minus 115, I'm getting plus 115, that to me is my fun. Like that's how sick I am. So yeah, it's, I, I, I do this, these ladders too. Like I like doing all those bets, but like everyone just needs to remember such a small percentage of your bet, right? You're just, that's your fun money. But yeah, like you're serious. If you're trying to take a position. Yeah. For me, I, I, I just lean to the, the getting the juice number, but yeah, if you're trying to put some crazy stuff together, Chad, you, you basically, we talk all the time, you're someone out there that likes the overs. do not bet the over like you can parlay it but throw in all the touchdown scores like throw in crazy parlays of different touchdown scores and get real weird with right mac hollins throw them in there like throw in the the the second tight end throw in the fullback do whatever because if you bet two bucks and it hits and you hit some of these parlays sometimes you're getting back like a thousand bucks it's it happens so yeah it's that's that's right i always try to tell people where it's like last year's super bowl i think bray anerson talked about this every year you should always bet defensive touchdown either team right special teams if you can get it i know that the juice is different on them but that's another bet where if i'm doing what chad's talking about like if i'm betting the seahawks and having fun with the laddering up i'm gonna throw defensive or special teams touchdown in there you got to do it because it's like drake may second year quarterback that's gonna be part of our our vision right chad if we're gonna have a blow in here we expect there maybe do a pick six or a kick return so that's like we keep saying the wildest most fun ideas you can have throw it in they got a number for you do it just take it easy with the bankroll don't be going crazy on these parlays right if if you're a hundred dollar better on the super bowl do one or two dollar parlays right and just do a ton of them it's just fun um because all of a sudden you wake up monday morning it's like holy shit i won a thousand bucks and i won two bets and that's that's what we're looking for right these crazy long shots all right Brandon Simon just mentioned the magic words defensive special teams touchdown how are we thinking about betting just defensive props yeah this to me is a set it and forget it Super Bowl bet like you can bring me on next year and I'm just going to give these exact same bets out with different teams and names defensive score in the Super Bowl we have 22 defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl at least one in 19 out of the 59 so about one in three 13 defensive touchdowns the last 24 so that's over a half touchdown defensively per game and this matchup what it's been defense all season Seattle's defense all year Patriots defense all playoffs and Seattle had the second most giveaways in the regular season so if you if our script goes wrong we're all feeling good about Seattle but if we're wrong why does it go wrong Darnold turned it over like that's the reason and it probably was a pick six the other way and you get a four and a half point spread one touchdown that the weird oblong ball bounced the wrong way, seven free points between two great teams, yeah, you're probably going to get a different sort of turnout there. So I will say betting defense, betting special teams, make sure to watch at the book because sometimes you get the defense touchdown. Sometimes you get the D slash ST. That's what you want. You want the special teams in this one. These teams had eight special teams touchdowns this season. There are 13 special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl. No punt returns yet. Maybe we'll get one here, but you want special teams as well. You can just bet, keep it easy, either team, defense or special teams touchdown plus 265. Keep it easy. That's 27%. There are 35 defense special team touchdowns in the Super Bowls. That's 59% implied. So that's basically more than double the odds that we're getting there but i like to get more aggressive because almost always the team that gets the defense touchdown is the winning team makes sense right like that's the the free points you got 22 defense touchdowns all but three are the winning team so you build two separate parlays and i'm playing both seattle defense special teams touchdown with the seattle money line plus 833 patriots defense special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700 you have both together it's like plus 600 implied it's double the value what we should be getting here and then also defenders can win mvp we've had 10 defensive mvps more defense than running back more defense than receiver it's about one every seven in the super bowl defensive mvp you can get just at 15 to 1 every defender i get half the guys on the field at 15 to 1 what can't you like about that that's six percent implied it's like two and a half times what the history implies there so i like defensive mvp and then this is this is my one two dollar bet that sam was just talking about if i'm doing all that i have to take some stabs at glory and come up with who's the exact defender i'm going to be wrong but one year randomly i'm going to be right so here's my three guys marcus jones for the patriots 150 to one he's the third cornerback he had four picks this year two of them return for touchdown, two punt returns for touchdown. So I get the bonus there. I don't want the best player. I want splash plays. Give me the upside with Marcus Jones. And of course, I want Seattle guys to Marcus Lawrence, 150 to one. He had a sack each game of the playoffs. He has three forced fumbles in two games up against Will Campbell. We like that matchup a lot. And then Ernest Jones, 200 to one, three of the four defensive Super Bowl MVPs of century are linebackers. He led the team in tackles by 30 this season, led the team in interceptions. We think New England's going to get a lot of pressure and a lot of short passes, a lot of dump-off stuff. There is your linebacker ready to just jump in the middle of the lane. You get the desperate pass late. He's housing it the other way. And wouldn't this be the team, if we're not sure about Darnold, if JSN doesn't have a huge game, don't we want a Seattle defender to be the MVP to represent who Seattle has been about? so I like betting defense in the Super Bowl but I especially like it this year I love this I love this all I can't wait to bet every single one of these because they also all align with what I'm looking for in the Super Bowl right now which is Seattle to dominate so other than the Patriots defensive special teams and money line everything you're saying is just pure glory we talked a little bit about escalators. Brendan, I wanted your take on that because you are so good at doing the escalators outside of the Seahawks. Give me an idea, like the most fun bet you can make in the Superbowl. As escalators. Yeah. Yeah. So I think the most fun bet you can make, although a slight disclaimer, I call this the most fun bet on championship Sunday and I bet it. And then it got hooked and missed by half a yard, But we're going back to the well and having the most fun a second time. I think it's Rashid Shahid as a runner. This is the dude they went out and traded for at the deadline. And we're going to run it back. Rashid Shahid rushing yards over two and a half rushing yards. It's the most fun because not only are you betting two and a half yards, you're waiting for one play. We get one shot at this in all likelihood. The entire Super Bowl, we're waiting for the one gadget. You know we're getting the trick play, the reverse, the weird sort of play that you've been holding back the whole entire season. Shahid has a rushing attempt in eight of 11 Seahawks games. They're using him as a runner. They're using him kind of like Percy Harvin. You might get like the backwards pass screen that counts as a run. So we want a rushing attempt. We've got to start there. And he's gone over two and a half yards, five of 11 games. So not quite the number that we'd want there, but that also includes a two-yard game. And then last game was a zero. I bet him over 0.5 yards, and he had a run over to the side, and he had a yard, and he just stepped out of bounds to avoid the hit like a pansy. Get the yard. Get my bet for me. So over 2.5 yards. Rashid Shahid, you owe me money this year. And the Patriots allowed more rushing yards to receivers than any team in the NFL this season. 149. They allowed seven double-digit runs to a wide receiver this year. They allowed a 31. Shahid has had a 30 and a 31 for Seattle. So I haven't seen it yet, but if you get longest rush numbers for Rashid Shahid, longest rush escalator, a 10, a 20, a 30, if he gets a long one, what I have seen is you can just bet what player will have the longest rush in the game. Rashid Shahid, 30 to one. If we don't think New England's going to run the ball well, and we think Walker might get bottle up a little bit, I think like 15, 20 yards could get it done. We get one shot, but man, when you're watching that, the Super Bowl party and you're waiting and it's the third quarter and you're like, Brandon said one shot. I know we're getting a run. And then you get the end around and Shahid's getting the ball. Oh, man. The juicier feeling in that moment when you have one chance to hit these Shahid bats, that's the most fun you can have on Super Bowl Sunday. Again, the Super Bowl is very dumb. Last year, my favorite bet ever was Saquon was minus 300 to have the most rushing yards in the Super Bowl. 10-1 was Jalen Hurts. That's who led. the Super Bowl in the most rushing yards last year. So it's just, I love the idea. Just think outside the box, people. Weird things happen. Super Bowl can get so wacky. It's the best. Well, let's talk about Kenneth Walker also because I've been betting all week. I said last week, I liked Kenneth Walker over his receiving yardage total. Brandon, you've got some Kenneth Walker props that you like as well. again I didn't even know you were going to say this but you're just going out of your way to make me feel good that's that's what you brought me on here for it Chad I like to make you look good yeah Walker I've been betting his receiving in the playoffs I hit this against San Francisco now obviously Charbonnet is out so we should get even more Kenneth Walker on the field so last 10 games his receiving has gone way up 2.7 catches 28 yards I know that doesn't sound like much, but before that, 1.2 catches for nine yards. All right, that's triple the yardage in the last 10 games compared to what he was early, and he's gone from 1.3 targets a game to 3.1 targets a game. Again, that's more than double what we're getting there, and again, if we're looking at the script, what's the script here? We might see some New England pressure up the middle. That is one weak spot for Seattle is the interior of the line. Well, if you get pressure, what do you need? You need the veteran running back who's going to be on the field. You need a quick outlet to dump off, get him into space and let him do his thing. Patriots allowed the fifth most running back receptions on the season. 12 running backs had three or more catches against the Patriots. So I like Chad, I like the receptions bet as my base here over two and a half receptions. He's had three catches or more in seven of the last 10. But I think you're right to look at the yardage as well, because in those seven games, when he has three catches or more, he's averaging 39 yards a game he's had 29 yards or more six of the seven so i'm gonna skip your 20 yards that you're going for and i'm gonna play my escalator on yardage here 30 yards plus 160 so maybe add that onto your yardage get the receptions and then because i like receptions as the higher play because we could hit this with one you just need one catch and then you pass a long one and you might hit the yardage as well even if you miss the receptions number i mean i'm in i'm all in Brandon, that's exactly what I'm looking for. What can you tell me about anything on the Patriots' offensive side of the ball? If we are expecting this to be the kind of game where the Patriots are trying to make a comeback, what are we looking at? Yeah, I think that the one, not the one, but one angle I do like for the Patriots, if they can sustain it, the Seattle defense is kind of league average defending short passes. That's by design. They want that. If you're going to check it down and go on these 12 play, 14 play check down drives, Seattle says we're going to live with that because guess what? We're going to hit you, Drake, and we're going to get you to make a mistake somewhere along the way. So I think you want somebody to catch short passes and I've been playing New England's running back receptions as well Ramondre Stevenson but they cut on to that one they move that line up to where I think Kenneth Walker should be it's three and a half receptions now so I'm going to go to the tight end tight ends against Seattle has been a good thing on the season Seattle has since week eight not allowed a 50 yard wide receiver to anyone but again the Rams they allowed 50 to to Pukunakua about four times a game in that one. But anyone else, no 50 yards, but running backs and tight ends are getting more. Look, Seattle has allowed a 24% target rate to tight ends on the season. They're top six in most yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. So Hunter Henry, I think is in for a good game here. Not a huge game because again, we like Seattle, but you can be a tight end and just kind of chew up some yards and catches on some short stuff down the field. Henry's only had six catches in the playoffs, but we already know New England's offense has sucked in the playoffs. We have these weird weather games. They're just running all week. I don't really make too much of that. Over three and a half catches he's had in nine of 17 regular season games. So just about half. But again, I looked at that one, three and a half receptions is minus 140 for the over. I don't love doing a minus 140. You guys know I want to have the plus juice on something. So I said, okay, if he gets those catches, how about the yards? Again, similar to the locker thing, we just said, look at the yards. He's had 39 yards or more, just over half of his games, 11 out of the 20. So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards. It's plus 105 at one book. Basically, you just need 40 yards here. Saddles allowed 40 to a tight end, 10 regular season games, and both playoff games so far. Even though they've had these dominating wins, 40 yards to a tight end in both games, Henry has only had two games this year where he had four catchers or more. So he would hit the receptions, but under 45. But he had four games where he had fewer catches than that but still hit the 40 and over So again skip the receptions and go for the yards and then I do the escalator there as well So over 39 and a half but 50 yards plus 155 Seattle's allowed that 12 times already this season. Henry's done 49 yards or more eight times this season, and it's a little nibble. Probably not. Probably this is not great for our Seattle side, but 80 yards plus 630. Henry does have a 90 and 150 in this season. Seattle's allowed an 80 four times so probably not a bet you want to parlay with seattle minus 25 but i think henry can have a big game all right simon anything we're missing we got to give out our final pick but before we let brandon go anything uh we're missing any bets you're thinking about anything we haven't touched that we need to get brandon's take on or that we want to share no i mean i love it it's like again just keep using your imagination for building these parlays if you're taking that Henry bet, Drake may over 20 completions, over 31 pass attempts, throw them in there. Like, again, just keep building it out, people. You're trying to write your own script for the game, and you're putting money behind it. And in your idea, it might sound crazy, and then your favorite team, which I experienced, wins a Super by 30 points and has a defensive touchdown. It's like, build these bets because it comes through. It sounds wacky, and you're doing it. It's like, ah, this will never hit. They hit. That's what, like, I feel like he's giving you guys a script right now I mean, like, we didn't even, I didn't even look at the script. I didn't mean to step on it with a defensive touchdown one, but that's when I, I blindly play it every year and it happens. Like, I know we just got one last year, but I mean, it's the NFL. These things happen in twos. So yeah, I, I, I love it all. So yeah, people can tell how fired up I'm. I'm already ready for Sunday and I got three more days, Chad, just to try to make it to this Sunday. I love the, I love the, my favorite team wins by 30 in the Superbowl. just nonchalant. He says to a Vikings fan and a Bears fan, like we have any idea what that means. One day. Don't get ready to chat. He's been insufferable about the Hoosers. Don't give him love right now. He's on a different stratosphere. It's been so hard for me these past few weeks. Brandon Anderson, read him, listen to him, follow him at the Action Network in the Action Network app. Thanks for coming on, buddy. Thanks, guys. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain. It's about engineering consciousness. Mind Games is the story of NLP. It's crazy cast of disciples and the fake doctor who invented it at a New Age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted. The biggest mind game of all? NLP might actually work. This is wild. Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What do you do when the headlines don't explain what's happening inside of you? I'm Ben Higgins, and if you can hear me, it's where culture meets the soul, a place for real conversation. Each episode, I sit down with people from all walks of life, celebrities, thinkers, and everyday folks, And we go deeper than the polished story. We talk about what drives us, what shapes us, and what gives us hope. We get honest about the big stuff. Identity when you don't recognize yourself anymore. Loss that changes you. Purpose when success isn't enough. Peace when your mind won't slow down. Faith when it's complicated. Some guests have answers. Most are still figuring it out. If you've ever felt like there has to be more to the story, this show is for you. Listen to If You Can Hear Me on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. In 2023, a story gripped the UK, evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict, a villain, a nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox, and in the new podcast, Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby, we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was. No voicing of any skepticism or doubt. It'll cause so much harm at every single level if the British establishment of this is wrong. Listen to Doubt, The Case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world. But in 2017, the FBI got inside. This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall. This MSS officer has no idea the U.S. government is on to him. But the FBI has his chats, texts, emails, even his personal diary. Hear how they got it on the Sixth Bureau podcast. I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question, of his life. And that's a unicorn. No one had ever seen anything like that. It was unbelievable. This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets. Listen to The Sixth Bureau on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Nancy Glass, host of the Burden of Guilt Season 2 podcast. This is a story about a horrendous lie that destroyed two families. Late one night, Bobby Gumpright became the victim of a random crime. He pulls the gun, tells me to lie down on the ground. He identified Jermaine Hudson as the perpetrator. Jermaine was sentenced to 99 years. I'm like, Lord, this can't be real. I thought it was a mistaken identity. The best lie is partial truth. For 22 years, only two people knew the truth until a confession changed everything. I was a monster. Listen to Burden of Guilt Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Simon, got to give out our final five picks for the contest. Tuesday, we will announce the grand prize winner of the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick'em Contest. Again, thanks to everybody for playing. It's fun to get people together and compete with each other and have a good time to talk about it. Our five official Super Bowl contest picks. Are you ready? Seattle, minus four and a half. First half, New England plus three and a half. We're going to give a little bit of logic on all these. Over under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half. We're going with Drake May completions over 19 and a half. and we're going with Ramondre, Stevenson, total rush yards, under 53 and a half. Anybody who's hearing that can see that we believe the script is going to be Seattle wins this game. Patriots are going to have to make a comeback in this game. Not a lot of rushing attempts for Stevenson. not a lot not a lot of opportunities and drake made with a lot of short check down passes with brandon anderson just talked about as being sort of the one thing the seahawks like to give up feel like everything we picked brandon anderson helped buttress our thinking yeah hopefully we're uh we are right about how we think the trip's gonna go here but um it just it feels like that type of game right there when you broke it down that there's a lot of numbers backing up what we're saying. We don't just blindly want to take this huge public favorite. There's got to be numbers and things behind it to back it up. I found tons of stuff that backed up argument, and he's just adding to it. A lot of those numbers he gave out, that's great data. You can whine and complain all you want if you're a Patriots fan. That's real numbers. That's nothing you can push back against. So, yeah, when I look at this matchup and how I think it's going to go, I asked Chad if I could put that plus three and a half Patriots first half number in there because to me, that number's not right. Especially when you're talking about Drake May, who this season is like 17-1 or 16-2 against the spread in the first half. He's been incredible. I want to take a position on that, right? Even though I think Seattle has a huge chance to blow out and win this game big time, I do think it could be a feeling out process in the first half. And that's a big number, three and a half. That feels like a gift by our contest because most books have already moved to three, two and a half. So we're getting sucked in a little bit here because of the hook. Can't pass up on that, the three and a half. So I appreciate Chad letting me get this New England plus three and a half in there. We're definitely trying to thread the needle, taking the Seattle full game and the New England Patriots first half. We're partners, buddy. We're in it together forever. Schlemiesel, Schlemazel. we're like Laverne and Shirley. We're Milwaukee's finest. And I'll be completely honest, it would have hurt to lose that Patriots bet, obviously, in the first half. But if the Seahawks were up by 25, me and Chad ain't going to be crying. That's our dream scenario. So it's an emotional edge as well. It's a great number, but it's also, you know, we're happy either way. And I just, I look at this game, and as much as I want to believe, Seattle's going to come out hot and fast and put up a ton of points. We talked about it. Vrabel's a great coach. I think he's going to have his guys ready prepared. So I'm excited to see the chess match that's going to be Kubiak figuring out the next move against Vrabel and how McDaniels goes against, you know, McDonald and this incredible defense that the Seahawks team has. So, yeah, I really can't wait for the Super Bowl. It's going to be a great matchup. I know, like we said, there's not a bunch of – people aren't going crazy about it right now, but I think as it gets closer to kickoff, people will. This is a great matchup. I hope Kubiak doesn't start daydreaming about Fernando Mendoza in the middle of the game, because I know what that affliction is like. It happens to me at least an hour of my day every day is spent dreaming about Fernando Mendoza and watching new compilation videos of his touchdown run. That's it. I cannot lie. Kubiak might have that running on a, on a, just like on a real, as he's trying to call plays for this game. Simon, catch choice was Seattle minus four and a half or no minus six and a half. Brass balls was. Patriots first drive punt. Patriots first drive punt. Simon says was the under in the first quarter. I think we had eight and a half. look I think we've made it pretty clear we're on Seattle I'm in a lot of Seattle alts and every other prop I'm on is basically a narrative in which Seattle is winning the game and New England is losing the game and some outlier things happening so I'm excited to see how all of this plays out we will be back on Tuesday This has been Sharper Square. Thank you so much for joining us here for our first season on the volume podcast network as Sharper Square. We launched in our hurry, but everyone joined us. And that is a gift. Thank you to Matt Mitchell, our producer. Thank you to Andrew Sampson, who kicked us off as our producer before Matt Mitchell joined us. Watch or listen on YouTube at SharperSquare. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. I believe it's five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until our Tuesday Super Bowl recap show, love you. Well, right now, Pat, the hoopla's over. You know, they've waited maybe all their lives to be in this Super Bowl. They've waited two weeks since their last championship game. They're in those locker rooms now. You just want to bust out of that locker room and get out of this field and get it started with. I'm Nancy Glass, host of the Burden of Guilt Season 2 podcast. This is a story about a horrendous lie that destroyed two families. Late one night, Bobby Gumpright became the victim of a random crime. The perpetrator was sentenced to 99 years until a confession changed everything. I was a monster. Listen to Burden of Guilt Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Clayton Eckerd. In 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor. But here's the thing. Bachelor fans hated him. If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would. That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one-night stand would end in a courtroom. The media is here. this case has gone viral. The dating contract. Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before. I'm Stephanie Young. Listen to Love Trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. 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