505: Epstein Files Reveal Depraved Global Network

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You know, it's Friday afternoon, and since I always forget, I feel like I should take my Z-biotics right now. Just take it, right. Just in case. I literally will not have a drink without taking a Z-biotics. I feel like I'm starting a religion when I talk about it because I just want people to follow me, my flock, because I know it will make you better and happier. Actually, I'm starting to see ZBiotics on menus and restaurants in DC and stuff. It really works. It works like a miracle for me. If you don't believe me, I understand. There's a lot of snake oil in this space, but here's what you do. You try it once. Go to zbiotics.com slash PSTW. You'll get 15% off your first order when you use PSTW at checkout. Plus, it's backed by a 100% money-back guarantee, so there's literally no risk. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. Remember, head to zbiotics.com slash PSTW and use the code PSTW at checkout for 15% off. Welcome back to Pod Save the World. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Ben Rhodes. We're recording a little early today because Ben and I are going to go see a Melania doc matinee. There's the $12 tub of popcorn. Have you seen that? Yes. Memorative popcorn tub. The Melania. I was saying to you, I saw a Melania billboard driving in on La Brea. In your house. And I didn't see it defaced yet. Not that I incurred vandalism. No. I'm surprised it hasn't been. There's something about the black and white color scheme that's a little triggering too. It's very spy versus spy. Yeah. It's very. Yeah, they spent $35 million on the marketing. typical i mean you know to be fair budgets for documentary low budget pr is usually like that yeah usually it's hundreds of millions the funniest thing about it is that they insisted uh in an international release because i could see they won't release those numbers they won't right because i i get it the maga diehards will turn out for any fucking piece of junk that you know glorifies their leader but the idea that anybody was going to see that in europe it just feels like a troll see south africa actually um like barred it from its theaters yeah yeah i noticed it had a um a better than expected uh what is it what do you call it open yeah like revenue total in the u.s was like eight million which again it's like it means amazon's gonna recoup i think 3.5 million they'll get like half of whatever back uh or four million and uh they just wouldn't release the international yeah tolls because they know good job international good job jeff bezos you know we're going to talk today about some great like hard-hitting investigative reporting. A lot of it is coming from Murdoch papers. And Jeff Bezos is just buying off Trump family members with documentaries. That would pay for the Washington Post Foreign Bureau for the next 10 years. It sure would. The Melania release. Yeah. It's infuriating. Well, we have a corruption theme today. We have a corruption theme today. So stick around. Yeah. Today's focus is going to be a great deal on international corruption and the rot we are seeing, not just in the Trump administration, but amongst elites all over the world. That starts with this jaw-dropping report in the Wall Street Journal about the UAE secretly purchasing 49% of the Trump family's crypto company before he was inaugurated, and then the advanced AI chips they got in return. We're going to try to unravel the truly global scope of this Epstein files scandal. It's just metastasizing daily. We're going to try to figure out what the hell is going on with Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence. She's popping up all over the place in very weird and troubling ways. We'll check in on the latest in Ukraine. We'll explain some dire warnings about the war in Sudan and how the proxy war there has expanded. And then we'll talk about why Trump officials are meeting with separatist groups in Canada and why that could be posed an existential threat to Canada's economic future. And then we have finally a story about France. I think we'll delight all the history buffs out there. And then Ben, you did our interview today. What are folks going to hear? Yeah, I talked to a friend of the show, Ali Weiss, who's the international crisis group's Iran expert, and just one of the smarter, more nuanced thinkers about what's going on inside of Iran. So we talked about the dizzying run of events over the last couple of weeks, where things stand, what the negotiations are about between the United States and Iran with some of these other countries involved, what the interests of those countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, are in trying to avoid this war. And I think very importantly, if there is some kind of regime change in Iran, which we still don't know will happen, who might come next. And that's something you don't hear a lot about. But Ali really breaks down a few different scenarios for how that could go. Did you guys talk before or after the U.S. reportedly shot down this Iranian drone? We talked kind of concurrent to that. But, you know, I mean, Ali sums it up well. I mean, you know, we could be here in a week, and I wouldn't be surprised if the United States has bombed Iran and removed its leadership. And I wouldn't be surprised if they are announcing that they have some framework for a deal. you know uh we just don't know that's a madman theory ben that's the madman it's genius it's really genius what he's doing see what he did oh wow so ingenious i know there there is some genius to framing uh winging it as genius but uh yeah here we are uh okay that's a great interview and i could not agree more that ali is one of the smartest people in all of the analyst space on this topic and one that doesn't uh you know he's not just a regime change only like one trick pony like you see from some of these think tanks ftb cough cough ftb um after the interview uh our subscribers are going to hear a q a ben will do with some of our uh members of the pod safe the world discord if you want to hear that please consider becoming a friends of the pod subscriber go to crooked.com slash friends you also get ad free episodes of the show you have lots of fun bonus stuff uh but also it's like the most helpful thing you could do for crooked media as a company if you want to support independent progressive journalism consider becoming a friend of the pod or just subscribe to the show, either on RSS or on YouTube. It really does help us. It helps people find the show when you subscribe. If you're watching on YouTube and you're not subscribed, please, do us a solid. It's free. Yeah. Speaking of free, by the way, Tommy, thank you to the thousands of people that signed up for my Substack. Substack. I've been cranking them out. I've got a piece on Iran. I had a piece on ice. Working on something on Epstein. So again, it's free. I just want to share more writing so you can check me out there. Check out Ben's Substack. It's called? Notes on the Stories We Tell. It's a very literary title. You did kind of a pose for me there. Yeah, I did. I did a kind of literary pose. You did sort of a vibe. I'm trying to give a vibe. If people have different title ideas, too, let me know. No, I like the title. I kind of like it, though. All right. Let's start with some great reporting, Ben. So there's this bombshell scoop from the Wall Street Journal about Trump and the UAE, the United Arab Emirates. The journal reported that days before the inauguration last year, an investment fund overseen by a member of the UAE's royal family secretly purchased 49% of the Trump family's crypto business. World Liberty Financial. This was for a cool $500 million. When this deal happened, World Liberty had no products to sell. And the way this deal was structured, it actually, it didn't give the new investors any access to at the time was their only source of revenue. So they paid $500 million for like nothing. Totally on the up and up here. The Trump family got an upfront payment of $187 million. The Whitcoff family got $31 million. That's Trump's golf buddy turned chief diplomat, Steve Whitcoff. His son is the CEO of World Liberty. And the Wall Street Journal report really does make it seem like the deal was negotiated by Steve Whitcoff and Eric Trump during a trip to the UAE shortly after Steve was named to this kind of roving envoy role. But remember, Ben, this is actually the second shockingly brazen corruption scandal regarding the UAE or UAE-backed investment firm in the Trump family. So last year, this Emirati state-backed investment fund called MGX announced they were making a $2 billion investment into the crypto company Binance, but they made the investment with the Trump family's new stablecoin, which is called USD1. USD1 stablecoins are a type of crypto that's pegged to the US dollar. That deal instantly made USD1 one of the biggest stablecoins in the world in terms of market cap and circulation, and it could earn the Trump family about $80 billion a year in passive interest. So it must be nice. On the Emirati side, the World Liberty Investment was led by a guy named Sheikh Tanun Bin Zayed Al-Nayan. He's the UAE's national security advisor. He's the brother of the president. He's a big shot. He manages, I think, a $1.3 trillion portfolio of businesses. Must be nice. It must be nice, man. Not long after all these crypto investments and meetings with the Trump administration and Tanun, the Trump administration agreed to let the UAE purchase 500,000 of the most advanced AI chips in the world produced by Nvidia. About a fifth of those chips went to an Emirati-backed firm called G42, which is chaired by Sheikh Tanun. The Biden administration had blocked the export of those chips to the UAE because the UAE, the Emiratis do a lot of business with the Chinese, including state-backed entities like Huawei. And there was concern that those chips could make their way to the Chinese military. But I guess Trump just doesn't care. Trump was asked about this quid pro quo on Monday. Here's his response, Ben. Well, I don't know about it. I know that crypto is a big thing and they like it. A lot of people like it. The people behind me like it. My sons are handling that. My family is handling it. And I guess they get investments from different people. But I'm not. I have all I can handle right now with Iran and with Russia and Ukraine and with all the things we're doing. So I don't know. I don't know exactly. So funny. Other than, you know, I'm a big crypto person. I'm the one that probably helped crypto more than anybody because I believe in it. And the reason I believe in it is because if we don't do it, Scott, I think we can say then China's going to do it. Who cares? If we don't do crypto, then China's going to do it. Oh, no. If China does the fake money. Isn't Bitcoin in the shitter now, too, by the way? Yeah, it's tanking today. I mean, this is like the most staggeringly corrupt thing I've ever heard of in his response. I was like, I don't know. Yeah. I like it. The corruption is very obvious. We don't even have to spend too much time on it. But you made the point. Biden had strict export controls on these trips going to the UAE. Now, that doesn't mean there shouldn't be any transition of technology, but usually what you do is you just kind of open the spigot a little bit. What they did is they just completely dismantled the entire export regime. And gave them the best of the best. They went from zero to 100, right? No step-up process, right? The Blackwell series, number one. No monitoring and verification regime. Only two other things I want to say about this. I think it's really important that people understand that this is an entirely different kind of scale of corruption. And it's not even just because of the money involved. That's a piece of it. It's because, you know, we're used to kind of, I know, Bob Menendez with the gold bars. You know, remember the guy with like the blocks of cash in the freezer and stuff like that? Oh, yeah. What Trump is doing is... It was in New Orleans, right? Yeah. I mean, you know, I think I just named two Democrats, by the way. You definitely did. I'm not just part of them. But what Trump is doing is... William Jefferson. Yeah. Great scandal. 90 grand in cash hit in the freezer of a car. I mean, I love, you know, there was some good stuff in the Aux or whatever the hell that was. God, good pull, Ben. But what Trump is doing is he's monetizing kind of the most valuable assets of the United States. Right. I mean, like it is national security stuff, you know, because that's the most valuable stuff. Right. And so the reason it's different scale is not just the money involved. It's that it's like national interest being traded away. and there's no payment like to the United States. It's just to Eric Trump and, you know, the Whitcoff family, right? So you're not seeing any benefit from this. Like, you know, it's just going right to the kitty. And the other thing I think that, you know, Trump did, the reason this is so much worse in the second term, right? First term you had like, I don't know, Saudis paying top dollar to stay at Trump hotels, things like that. Is I think what Trump did is he studied insofar as he's a student, but he paid attention. How does Putin operate? How does Erdogan operate? Like how do other corrupt regimes operate? And he's like, when I get back in there, I'm just going to do that, you know. And so I think what we're seeing is the United States operating like, you know, Malaysia has at times or like, you know, Turkey has at times or certainly how Russia has. But I think what's different, again, is just the scale because what those countries don't have is like thousands of the best chips in the world, you know. So he can, you know, it's a bigger scale even than those countries because of what he has to trade away. Yeah. And in the first term, he pretended to care about the emoluments clause and perceived conflicts of interest. And now when he's pressed on this, he'll just say, look, I got no credit for it. So now I don't care anymore. So now I'm just going to be as corrupt as I want. And also, you know, he completely flip-flopped on cryptocurrency generally. Like he was opposed to it. He thought it was, you know, he initially viewed it from like a nationalist perspective as like a competitor to the dollar that might hurt our primacy as a country. but then someone clearly told him that he could make a buck by selling shit coins and then they got deeper and deeper down the crypto path and they realized this was the best possible way to funnel ungodly amounts of money to you and to your family and to sell you know the crown jewels of the u.s technology business and here we are yeah and i you know the gulf is a piece of this right because essentially we're in a world without like a ton of liquidity right some of these people who are also very rich on like screens you know they they don't have billions and billions of dollars to just throw at stuff they do in the gulf right because of our addiction to fossil fuels because of the global economy that we built right so i'm not blaming them for having that money like uh countries like saudi arabia the ua e qatar and others like they just have a lot of cash to throw at things and one of the sad things and we'll kind of get to the epstein at all in a second here is just americans we're like maws to a flame right i mean this is a connective tissue between like the saudi real estate investment conference with like you know special guest hillary clinton or whomever and this different scale i don't want to you know like hillary taking a speaking fee is not the same as trading weight chips but the common thread essentially is that like this what the gulf has figured out and i i actually don't blame them for this i mean i blame them for other things emiratis what they're doing in sudan which we'll get to but of course if if you have that much money and there are people who are just willing to like train away like you're gonna do it and so this this calls for real structural reform of corruption uh in the u.s government if the democrats can ever claw back power that has to be part of the agenda absolutely pod tape the world is brought to you by ridge i think we've all had that um that that era in our lives when your wallet is like six inches thick you're like costanza terrible you look stupid it's ridiculous you have crap in there you don't need it looks ugly it's falling apart your cards fall out your back hurts don't don't live that way people think you're a slob don't live that life. 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After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell you that Pod save the world sent you. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. February often feels like a nonstop parade of romance. Tommy and I'll be spending Valentine's Day together. Down under. G'day. And then we'll go to Australia. Now getting your love life can be confusing. Yeah. As evident from this ad, whether you're partnered up or flying solo, there's no right way to feel right now. Therapy is a great way to cut through that noise, helping you find your footing and gain some clarity in what you truly want. Everyone listening to this needs therapy. That's right. And those recording it. And those recording it. The world is scary and a lot going on. And you know what? It doesn't even matter what's happening in the world. Like everyone just has that kind of baseline of anxiety, I think. It's good to work through it on your own time. 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By now, I'm sure the audience has heard about this massive trove of files related to Jeffrey Epstein that came out of DOJ last week. This was in response to a law passed by Congress. There's millions and millions of records. They show this vast web of connections to rich and powerful people all over the U.S., including Donald Trump and others. We're going to try to focus on the international angle because this scandal is now truly global. So a couple examples, Ben. So starting in the UK, we have covered the downfall of a creep formerly known as Prince Andrew, who was stripped of his royal titles and asked to move from one royal estate to a slightly less large royal estate. But this latest tranche of files includes even more photos of Prince Andrew. And Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now calling on him to testify before the U.S. Congress about Epstein. So that's kind of a remarkable step for Starmer to make. Then there's a guy named- Some other Americans I'd like to see testify before Congress, too. Oh, for sure. Yeah, I was like, let's get some- There's a weird theme here, which is like there's a lot of accountability in the British system and none in ours. Then there's a guy named Peter Mandelson. Last September, Peter Mandelson lost his job as Britain's ambassador to the US because of a previous tranche of Epstein files that showed their relationship being far deeper and going on longer than it should have. But the fallout from this latest tranche is massive for Mandelson. So he's resigned from the Labor Party. He's resigned from the House of Lords. On Tuesday, the Times of London reported that Mandelson will face a full criminal inquiry or a full criminal investigation for forwarding along very highly confidential British government information, including seeming to tip Epstein off about the EU's response to the debt crisis, I believe, in 2010. I think that's what that email was. Like, he basically told a guy, a financier with Wall Street connections, that the EU was about to do like a 500 billion euro bailout. Yeah. Pretty bad. Yeah. I think starting with the British piece of this, you know, this has been interesting. I ended up spending a lot more time morbidly scrolling through this content than I thought for a couple reasons, right? One is just the absolute depravity. And that's where Prince Andrew comes in, right? Just people, men behaving like the absolute worst versions of human beings as it relates to the mistreatment, trafficking, abuse of girls. I think the other thing that jumps out, though, Tommy, is beyond just the conduct of the global elite, there were real stakes involved, right? So you take the Mandelson thing. That is not a small fucking matter. That is, again, senior government official trading the most sensitive inside market-based information. You and I were in meetings about the same bailouts. I remember being in meetings about ECB bailouts. And, I mean, I'm not saying I'm pure, you know, like I'm a hero. I just, you don't. It was unthinkable. It was unthinkable, yeah. You would like leak that information. Unthinkable. It's like, hey, I know. And put it, the brazenness, the impunity. Put it in an email. To put it in an email. It just shows you. Hey, forwarding this from Gordon Brown. Hey, I just heard like Tim Geithner talking about this, you know. Which, by the way, all this shit is happening right now because Trump administration officials are using this kind of insider information to bet on events on Calci. Polymarket. Hawley market, right? Their fucking accounts are getting set up being like, will Maduro be deposed a hundred grand into the, into the table that's going to happen by the end of today? Oh, wow. I won my bet. How did that happen? Right. So, so no, I think it's a theme here that there was actual real stakes, power, intelligence agencies, market moving information that was circulating in this web that Epstein had built. I also think the Mandelson thing is a big deal because again our british listeners know this but peter mandelson is a gigantic figure in british politics this guy inner inner circle of tony blair new labor comes in he was kind of at the center you know britain is a pretty clubby place london is even more clubby place westminster the most clubby place he was the kind of guy that was constantly talking to journalists talking to political operatives like it was like a master communication i've met him he's a charming guy like he's a good communicator right and by the way he's gay so he was not like part of the sex crimes it was just one of you know i mean maybe it's not strange it is just odd um that he was sort of like so close with this guy but also seemingly epstein uh funneled a bunch of money to his partner which he like seemed to pretend he didn't know about but now there's records of it and he kind of got off on just being in the center of the action and and i i think that the lesson you know we all have to look a little harder at our elites after this epstein stuff and in the in the uk case it said you know how did this guy come back like how did he get the job as ambassador the british is getting those questions now the uk has very good intelligence services yeah i would be absolutely flabbergasted if mi6 didn't know the depth of peter mandelson's connections to epstein yeah so how did these guys sign off on him becoming ambassador to the united states pretty important job um after this yeah he must have lied in his vetting or something yeah um a few more examples, Ben. So the royal family in Norway has gotten swept into this. So the latest Runch of Files has revealed that the crown princess, her name is Meta Merit, she's the woman in line to be queen, was extremely chummy with Jeffrey Epstein. They had a bunch of email correspondence between 2011 and 2013, which is well after his plea deal in Florida. She was chastised by the prime minister of Norway for showing bad judgment. And this is happening at a very challenging time for her because her son from a previous marriage is on trial for 38 charges, including four counts of rape. So this is a very scary time for her. I mean, it's horrible. All of it's just awful. But she's not even the only Norwegian VIP to get caught up in this. Like the former prime minister and the chair of the Nobel Peace Prize selection committee was vacationing on Epstein Island. Not a good few months at the Nobel Peace Prize. No. A former foreign minister had dinner with him a couple times. There's two diplomats who helped negotiate the Oslo Accords, have financial ties to Epstein. So that's bad. We've talked about the former Israeli prime minister, Ehud Barak, before. He's been named in these files, but now there's even more correspondence between Ehud Barak and Jeffrey Epstein. There's audio files of their conversations. It's clear that Epstein is kind of like helping him set up his post-prime minister life financially. He's describing to him what Palantir is for the first time in one of these audio recordings. Yeah, it did make you wonder about Ehud Barak's keeping up with the times. What the hell? I know. Yeah, they're also, there's a conversation. Minister of Defense of Israel. They have a conversation about Obama. I said that to you. I love that. Jeffrey Epson has an interesting and very accurate I think read on Obama and Ayur Barak red Politico playbook once in 2007 He close to Valerie Jarrett I was like where the Mossad Give you that brief In the UAE there like a top executive at Dubai logistics company that like sending porn links around. The Slovakian national security advisor resigned after messages between him and Epstein came out where they were like talking about women and also, I think, discussing a forthcoming meeting with the Russian foreign minister. So, Ben, I just – we'll pause there. But it's just – it's staggering, like, how this guy was able to get his tentacles into so many different people and just, like, I don't know, convince them that he was interesting or important or could connect them or was a financial genius. Maybe there was some abilities there that we don't know about, but my God. look he he definitely operated um like an intelligence service himself right like almost unto himself in the sense that he built a network he got compromising information on people who are also his friends he found weak spots like these rural families are weak spots in high society these are people who have like a lot of money and a lot of time on their hands and no real jobs and they go to places like the virgin islands right right and so he kind of burrows in i mean that's I take away from these worlds. Like, this is a way to kind of burrow into the elites and you kind of probably follow that pathway to other people. I thought the Barack thing, a Barack thing was really interesting because it shows you how this works. We've said a few times, particularly when we talk about like Jared Kushner, that the payoff for government service, right, comes on the back end, i.e. like you do something to scratch the back of rich people and then, or say the Gulf, and then when you leave, in Jared's case, you get a $2 billion investment in your fund. The A. Brock thing, he's literally coaching him. He's like, I can get you on this board. I can get you on this board. He's literally setting the guy up. And I think it is a good window for people into how this kind of revolving door elite works where even people who seem like they're very powerful in some ways are subordinate to wealthy people because those wealthy people are the people that are going to make you money when you leave government, right? And so that all becomes one self-looking ice cream cone of corruption. I also think like we should just pause on this intelligence question because, you know, there's weird links that why can this guy set up meetings with Russians, right? He clearly was doing a lot of stuff that benefited the Israeli government. The Russian – Russia and Israel have two of the most aggressive intelligence services in the world. And there's one email from Epstein where it goes to like, I think, a former deputy economic minister, a Russian guy, where he's like, hey, there's a woman in town from Moscow that is blackmailing a businessman that she slept with. It's bad for everyone. Here's her address. Yeah. Yeah. Real fucking real information. Scary stuff. Omnid stuff. Right. Anyway, sorry. No, no. And that's right. I mean, I'm curious what you think, Tommy, because I know you. But these questions, you know, I don't claim to know the answer. But the idea that, you know, based on what we're seeing that like the I mean, at a minimum, the Mossad, the FSB and, you know, who knows about the CIA, right? Like must have been paying pretty close attention to showing up at that island because they know those people are compromised. You know, at a maximum, this guy favor trades. You know, he didn't necessarily have to be on the payroll of an intelligence service to work with them and to say, hey, Russia, send me some women and I'll send you some information or something. or whatever the thing is. So I do think that some people are right to suggest, why are we not seeing more investigation into this guy's links? And I'm not just pointing at Israel. I'm pointing at Russia. And I'm curious about his links to the US. This guy, to your point, had just a revolving door of some of the most powerful, richest, famous people in the world coming to his island, flying on his plain sending him emails unclassified emails about sensitive shit like i i have to think there's an intelligence piece of this somewhere i would think so and like trump wants this to be the end of the story i think it's just the beginning of the next chapter because now there are so many documents so many reporters and investigators can pull on these threads and try to figure out more and there's all this stuff that was redacted or withheld for various reasons and like we should just be honest like the 30-day timeline to get all these documents out was probably not remotely feasible yeah um and i i don't like i'm not trying to criticize the authors of the legislation but like are you standing up for todd blanch the the i mean i'm just standing up for the fact that like to this day i was talking to a journalist today going through the archives who was like man there are still names uh naked photos in these archives that have not been redacted you know and it's like just horrible that they put the victims through this and you know there's collateral damage and people but um i i think that like there's a lot we need to to know here and look like donald trump's he's he's mentioned like 38 000 times so far according to the new york times but this guy didn't use email doesn't use email so like we we don't really know it's like the tip of the iceberg and to your point about mandelson you know being potentially prosecuted uh there's so many crimes in these uh you know documents i also out of you know real concern it's so haunting to see you know the the pictures of these girls with like black boxes and and are they okay like um what happened to some of those girls like are they because it seemed like they were literally being treated like chattel well yeah there's like occasionally some emails from epstein to like clearly one of the victims where he is like a sociopath yeah just awful um well i think we'll be talking about this again we know yeah so one person who could be on the case here but is not is tulsi gabbard um you know but there's like there's been a critical mass of just like truly fucking bizarre reporting about tulsi gabbard um who is the director of national intelligence we want to check in on her. So remember, Tulsi was a Democrat. She served in the Iraq war. Um, her sort of top political driving issue was seemed to be a sincere opposition to foreign wars, especially regime change wars, uh, put a pin in that one. Um, she was a touch quirky bench. She famously visited, uh, Syria in 2017, met with, uh, Bashar al-Assad, uh, which was, you know, surprising thing to do given the, the scale of the massacre of his own people at that point in time. But she also seemed to kind of try to hide the trip when she got back. But despite all of that, Trump put Tulsi in charge of America's intelligence community, and it has been a bumpy ride for her since. So again, despite the opposition to regime change wars, remember last year she testified before Congress and said Iran has not decided to develop a nuclear weapon. Months later, when Trump was about to bomb, he was asked about those comments and he said, I don't care what she thinks. And then she adjusted the intelligence picture to match his opinion. she also fired intelligence officials for producing an intelligence assessment that did not repeat the administration's line that now deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was linked to the gang Trende Aragua. Remember, so she fired those guys. But despite all that, she still seems to be in the outs with Trump because on January 1st, Tulsi was posting photos of herself doing yoga on the beach while the inner circle of the Trump administration was finalizing the Venezuela raid to take out Maduro, which she was just not read in on at all. So fast forward to these last couple of weeks, Ben. First, Tulsi is spotted on the ground in Georgia at the site of this FBI raid of the election office in Fulton County, which, to be clear, is nuts. She's not supposed to have any part of a domestic law enforcement operation, period. Gabbard says Trump specifically directed her to be there. And according to the New York Times, Tulsi even called Trump on his cell phone, put him on speakerphone so that he could talk with the FBI agents conducting the raid. I just I want you to imagine in your head for one second if Avril Haines was at the site of Mar-a-Lago when they did the classified documents raid and she put Joe Biden on a call with the FBI agents. Just marinate on that one while I do a little more narration here. Someone who spoke with the Times said the call was like, it compared it to a pep rally. But this was my favorite line in that story, Ben. It said, quote, Ms. Gabbard used her cell phone to call Mr. Trump, who did not initially pick up. Senator voicemail. Also at the raid was that second deputy director of the FBI, that guy Andrew Bailey, who was called in to layer Minecraft head, blockhead Bongino, who was on the record saying the left stole the election in 2020. So that gives me confidence. Here is Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, talking about Tulsi's presence in Georgia for this FBI operation at a press conference on Tuesday. The director of national intelligence does not conduct criminal investigations. She has no role in executing search warrants, and she does not belong on the scene of a domestic FBI search, particularly one tied to the president's personal grievances carried out under the pretense of normal law enforcement. Now, Director Gabbard argues that her presence was justified by, quote, broad statutory authority. the broad authority to analyze intelligence is not a license to participate in a sham investigation. And it certainly does not justify facilitating direct contact between the frontline FBI agents doing this investigation directly to the president of the United States. So the operation was not authorized by Atlanta's local U.S. attorney, but it was instead authorized by the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri, who Bondi is tasked with looking into election interference. It's also notable, Ben, that the agent in charge of the FBI's Atlanta field office resigned the week before. Feels connected. On Tuesday, The Guardian reported that Tulsi's running her own separate review of the 2020 election, somehow independent of whatever the DOJ and FBI are doing. So let's just pause there. What the fuck do you think she was doing there? What is happening? So first of all, just to mark what a comment, who I worked for back in 2006, but he does sometimes sound like a guy, Anastasia's affection, who was frozen in 2006 and then is like dropped into 2026. It's like, what the fuck is going on here? You've got the, you know, like it's. Crying, yelling about norms. Yeah, yeah, norms. Here's like, it's conspiracy theory day because you know why? Because we have no idea what the fuck is going on, right? There's no information. So when there's no information, all you can do is have a theory. Here's what worries me about this, right? Yes, she has no operational authority in an FBI operation. Like the only thread that she could cling to is that not only the DNI is the head of the intelligence community, but that is not meant to be supervising law enforcement operations by the FBI. That's meant to the domestic intelligence gathering part of the FBI kind of goes into a pool of information that the DNI draws from. I worry about this. The way these things could connect is the craziest theories about the 2020 election involves foreign interference, right? Ding, ding, ding. like Venezuela or whoever, Iran or other countries. I'll read you a true social post in a minute when you're done to give you some more specifics. Why would this matter and why would this be connected to Georgia? Because if she wants to spin some web of conspiracy theory that there's this kind of ongoing foreign threat to the integrity of our elections, ironic that the Republicans now care about that given how they've dealt with Russia, that could be a potential pretense to federalize the conduct of elections in this country. So elections are held by states. They're the ones who put on the voting. They're the ones who count the votes. Trump hates that. You see Trump called for federalizing 15 states worth on Blockhead Bongino's podcast Monday. I didn't realize it was on Blockhead Bongino's podcast. Yeah. He's back. If they're looking for a pretext to cross the final third rail, they've already crossed so many others, of trying to nationalize elections so states can't actually carry out the elections, but a bunch of Trump flunkies can, Tulsi could deliver that to Trump by saying, oh, you know, we're finding all this evidence of the Venezuelan conspiracy. So that this looks kind of keystone cops, but that's the truly scary possibility. Yep. Is it this is like part of that. Yeah. 4D rail the Democratic Party. Yeah. So her authority is only authorized assessing foreign interference in elections. Right. Yes. Investigating Joe Biden or whatever. Yeah. Last week, Trump went on a crazy like late night posting spree on truth social, Ben. So that included sharing a message that said the following. So it said that the, quote, stolen 2020 election was connected to Obama via the pallets of cash to Iran. It's so perfect. Which was funneled through the Dubai embassy to operatives in Italy and Merrill Lynch in Geneva, Switzerland. In return, this says that Italian officials used military satellites to hack U.S. voting machines using CIA tools. China coordinated the operation, but also the CIA oversaw it and the FBI covered it up. There's another popular set of claims that Venezuela was involved. Remember this? The ghost of Hugo Chavez was stealing the election or maybe Maduro. There's another theory that a CIA supercomputer named Hammer went rogue somehow, changed the election results. And the dude pushing that theory is remember back during the early days of the Iraq war, there was one guy who said he could decode Al Qaeda messages in Al Jazeera broadcasts. Remember this whole fucking thing? Yeah. That guy's the one pushing this thing. That's the level of insanity we're talking about here. That is so fucking insane on every single level. Like, what do you do with that? What do you do? Barack Obama and the Italians and like, you know, Dubai, which is like, I mean, the other thing, so the truly scary thing is that this is all just about federalizing elections in certain states and making sure the Republicans can never lose power in this country, which is the thing that might happen. um i do want to say for the more comic relief their capacity to kind of take a bunch of things that they have theories about or that they once got mad about and just jamming them all together in like a sandwich it's like it's like the wreck it's not even a coherent it'd be like if the democrats were like you know what hurricane katrina blew in some information that led like somehow like this is kind of all like they just take random quote-unquote scandals from the last you know from fox news from last eight years and and suddenly you know beau bergdahl like threw the election in 2020 or something you know like it's so fucking nuts i know remember when you're a kid and you would go to the like soda machine and you make a graveyard it was like i love that yeah that's pretty good yeah that's what this is though it's one big giant graveyard because they know like the only audience that they're speaking to is like the dumbest fucking bag of rocks who sits in front of fox news for 12 hours a day and that person just hears like pallets of cash i remember that yeah like they must have the 2016 pallets of cash were saved to pay for stealing the election in 2020 you know donald trump yeah because that's makes sense yeah also remember uh the there was some like election integrity task force that tulsi put together within the dni's office they put together a memo that named a specific individual and like pegged that person as the one who had placed the pipe bombs at the dnc and the rnc before the january 6 insurrection shock surprise surprise that information then leaks to the blaze this like far right wing uh outlet uh and they claimed they got their stores their stuff like confirmed by an intel source turns out that was total bullshit the administration then arrested somebody else but like they just tulsi's team just smeared this innocent woman through this election integrity work. After Blockhead Bongino said that they actually caught the, you know, anyway. Blockhead. All right. So then there's this like whistleblower issue. So the Wall Street Journal reported that a whistleblower report was filed against Gabbard last May. It is described as like so top secret and so sensitive that it has to sit in a safe all by itself. By law, the inspector general is supposed to share credible whistleblower reports with Congress in a matter of a few weeks. They have like a week to assess it, two weeks to share it, something like that. But Tulsi and her team have just been sitting on this thing for months and no one really knows why. The complaint reportedly doesn't just involve Gabbard, but also some official at another agency. They say executive privilege might be involved somehow. According to the journal, quote, a representative for the inspector general said the office had determined specific allegations against Gabbard weren't credible. Well, it couldn't reach the determination on others, but it's worth pointing out, Ben, that the inspector general for the intel community, this guy Christopher Fox, worked for Tulsi Gabbard before taking this oversight job. So, you know, this is great. So I don't know. Like, it's impossible to know what's going on here. I thought we might try to do some informed speculation about, like, what could make her want to withhold something like this at risk to herself via Congress? What would make it so sensitive? Do you have a theory of the case? This one is even harder. You know, I didn't bring enough tinfoil hats today. You should have brought some. I guess, first of all, the executive privilege thing is interesting because that would usually be the White House. So, again, this is informed speculation, not just a guess. Like when you hear executive privilege, that generally only applies to the White House. Like other agencies don't have the ability to claim executive privilege. They report to Congress in a different way than the White House does. So that makes you wonder whether she was talking to some lunatic in the White House and there's any number of them she could be talking to. um and again like if you think about what she's like her only job it seems to be is investigating these election interference things remember it was her a few months ago who came out with a kind of crazy you know theory that about the 2016 election that you know said brock obama did so this is all she's been doing and so i guess one theory is that there's a maybe a foreign government that is helping her put together these theories, right? And I could think of, you know, a couple. Belize. Russia, you know? And that would be the kind of thing of like, well, wait a second, because she's always had these connections that the Russians are a little ambiguous. I don't know. I mean, what is clear is this person is just kind of, first of all, clearly not managing the intelligence community. Is this kind of this inspector Clouseau for election interference is clearly, you know, not following any protocols. and there's not really any oversight because they're not sharing shit with Congress. They gutted these inspector general functions or put a bunch of flunkies in there. And this is going to also take more investigative journalism, more whistleblowers. Like there are people that know. I mean, this is the thing. This is what is one of the things, Tommy, I'm curious what you think about this. Like the next two or three years, if we're going to get out of this, it's probably going to have to involve people who know on the inside. Yeah. having enough is enough and telling people. And also, like, in the first term, they, you know, people like Vindman, like others who came forward, whistleblowers, did so knowing that there was personal risk, but hoping that the system would protect them. And if, you know, everyone since has seen the system break down and not really protect them at all. So there's even greater personal risk coming out of this term, too, when Trump has, like, just made clear that he will go to the ends of the earth to punish you. And they made clear that they tried to get rid of all the Vindmans. Like, they're kind of professional. And they got rid of all the inspector generals and stuff, right? So they don't even care anymore. I mean, my theory, you could just imagine an instance where someone in the intelligence community blows a whistle on like a top person to Donald Trump. So Jared Kushner doesn't have a clearance, doesn't have a job. Is he consuming intelligence information? Is he sharing that intelligence information? Did we pick up on that sharing via our collection on the Israelis or something? Right. So it comes back around and suddenly we know of malfeasance through some super compartmented, you know, sensitive collection priority, which is why it ends up the document ends up in a safe could happen. Could someone be mad that Steve Whitcoff flies around the world in his own plane doesn't use secure comms? Maybe, uh, maybe a silly Steve left his like top secret binder behind in the Kremlin. And like we found out about it, you know? So I don't know, again, I am totally guessing. Um, but it's just interesting that this IG report involves Tulsi, but then also some other office in another agency, which makes me wonder if she is perceived to have been covering up for something someone else did because she's trying to protect Trump. That's a very good theory. Guessing though. That's a good one. Remember when she was going to pardon Snowden? Wasn't that her other big thing? Yeah, yeah. Maybe he's happy in Moscow. I guess we gave up on that one. All right, we're going to take a quick break, but before we do, listen, this is your last chance if you live in New Zealand or Australia to pick up tickets to come see Pod Save America for the hopefully just visiting tour 2026. We're in Auckland on February 11th, Melbourne on February 13th, Brisbane on February 14th, and Sydney on February 16th. You can get tickets at crooked.com slash events. It'll be a blast. Come see us. It'll be fun. Please tell us where our non-extradition country hideout should be. 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Get the right life insurance for you for less and save more than 50%. at selectquote.com slash world. Save more than 50% on term life insurance at selectquote.com slash world. Go today to get started. That's selectquote.com slash world. Okay, we're going to turn to some more serious stuff for a little bit here. We have not talked about the war in Ukraine in a while. Not that the Tulsi shit isn't serious. This is all very serious. It's actually all very serious. It's more just like a laugh so you don't cry stuff. But, you know, Ukraine, not a lot to laugh about. So just one important piece of context for folks to know about this conversation about Ukraine is it has been like a brutally cold winter over there. I was looking at my Apple weather map as I was writing this up, Ben, and the temperature in Kiev was zero degrees. On Monday, parts of Ukraine hit negative 14 degrees, so like deadly, dangerously cold. And leading up to this cold and throughout it, there's been this sustained effort by the Russians to take out Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which led to rolling blackouts and people freezing. Last week, Trump said he got Putin to agree to like a one week ceasefire because of the cold. On Monday of this week, he repeated that claim. Let's watch. I did call up President Putin and he's agreed, he's put it out to. They have the same cold wave that we do. Maybe different because it's pretty far away, but it's the equivalent. And Ukraine's a very cold country. It's much colder than us. It's colder than they say. On average it Canada or colder And on top of that they have a tremendous cold wave And I asked him if you wouldn shoot for a period of one week no missiles going into kiev or any other towns and he agreed to do it so it something uh on tuesday uh ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky said that russia fired 32 ballistic missiles 28 cruise missiles 11 missiles from some other type and 450 attack drones and an overnight attack that deliberately targeted ukrainian energy infrastructure so uh don't know know that putin kept his word and that doesn't really bode well for putin agreeing to a broader peace deal um nato secretary general mark ruta uh took some time off um from kissing trump's ass and went to ukraine on tuesday you know to his credit i think like the air defense sirens were wailing as he was there trying to you know get something done um one small piece of good news ben is that elon musk is reportedly implementing a technical fix that should prevent russia from using his starlink satellite internet service from extending the range of their drones to hit more parts of Ukraine. Last week, the deputy prime minister of Poland kind of yelled at Elon about this on Twitter and accused him of making money on war crimes. And in response, Elon called him a drooling imbecile. But good to see cooler heads kind of prevailed here. And Elon seems to be doing the right thing. Just two other quick things on Ukraine. So the Washington Post had a big report that's worth your time to read that is very disturbing about how hundreds of men in Kenya have been lured to Russia with promises of like civilian jobs or security jobs, and then just sent to the front lines with no training and they don't even speak the language. And this sort of thing could be happening to men in a dozen other African countries. And then finally, Ben, the last remaining non-proliferation treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire on Thursday of this week. That would essentially just light on fire two decades of bipartisan diplomatic work and could lead to a new nuclear arms race between the U.S., Russia, and maybe China. So all good news in this section. Yeah. When you put it like that. Yeah, real uplifting stuff here. I think that Trump's credulous nature with Putin is just astonishing to me. But it's also because he doesn't actually care whether Putin is going to do what he said. He just likes to be able to go out and say, well, I got him to agree to this. And by the way, that clip, I'm sure, played, you know, to carry the theme of Fox News forward. I'm sure that clip played on Fox News. I'm pretty sure that they probably didn't cover what you just followed up with, which is that was complete bullshit. So if you're consuming the pageantry of the MAGA presidency, Trump is telling you that he got Putin to stop this and he's saving lives in Ukraine. The reality is the war in Ukraine has gotten much worse with the Ukrainians under Trump. Like the violence is up, the attacks are up, like their battlefield losses, They're not getting support from the United States in the way that they did. The alliance that backs them is fracturing, right? And this kind of, to tie all this together, you know, I remember when we were back in the Russia hoax days, you know, but people used to speculate, like, what does Putin want from Trump? Does he want sanctions relief? Or does he want this? Or does he want that? No. Putin wants exactly what is happening right now. Like, let's just think about what we've been talking about. Freedom to operate. Right? Yeah. He can just beat the shit out of the Ukrainians and the president of the United States will tell the world that he, Putin, has agreed to not do that, even though he's doing it. He just watched the NATO alliance fracture over fucking Greenland, right? He's watching the elite of the United Kingdom and the United States and several European countries be completely exposed as a bunch of perverted criminals in the Epstein files. I'm not saying he's behind all of that. I'm just suggesting that like, Nobody's had a better few weeks than Vladimir Putin. And he's just sitting there and Trump is just wrecking the Atlantic Alliance, destroying the dollar, fucking over the Ukrainians. Look, you actually couldn't design it if you were a Russian intelligence person. And I'm not saying that whether that's because Trump is compromised or whether that's more likely just because Trump is a combination of an idiot and somebody who admires Putin, it doesn't matter. It's the outcome that I'm talking about. And there's no accountability. like reporters tried asking about the stuff he just he doesn't care like there will be no accountability for the fact that he said he would end this war in 24 hours it's been well over a year i saw the other day a journalist posted a photo so all around the white house there are something there are these things called jumbos it's basically the white house photographer will put up like a selection of 20 to 50 of their favorite photos at any given time and they get kind of rotated they put up one of putin and trump in alaska at the like absolutely disastrous failed fucking summit. It's like, why would you put a jumbo of that up on the wall? That just suggests you do not, like, you fundamentally do not care about the policy outcome if you're Trump. No, you don't. But this is actually, and look, some journalists try, like Caitlin Collins. Yeah, she did a great job today. Trump yelled at her. She did. So I'm not saying all of these people. She asked about Epstein and he told her he's never seen her smiles, like the most sexist patronizing thing you've ever seen. But the reality is, you know, Joe Biden would get yelled questions about why you aren't providing, you know, certain tank system to Ukraine for weeks. This guy said he'd end the war on day one and we're over a year in the presidency and the war's gotten much worse. And he should be pushed harder on it and more regularly because this is absolute bullshit. The whole reason he invented the eight wars that he ended that he didn't end is to distract. I mean, this is a distraction, but it's not like a distraction with action. It's I'm going to invent these other wars I ended because the one that actually people cared about, you know, it was Gaza and Ukraine. And Gaza, we've talked about, is not exactly a ceasefire. And Ukraine is just much, much worse. The other war I really wish you would care about is Sudan. So two updates out of there. So for the third year in a row, Sudan is one of the worst, if not the worst, humanitarian crises on the planet. The quick background is this fighting started in April of 2023. It was between the Sudanese military and a rebel group called the RSF. They were once allies in crushing Sudan's civilian government, but had a falling out. And now it's year three of this nightmare. However, these groups are not fighting alone. So the RSF forces, they get weapons and support from the United Arab Emirates, including drones made in China, while the Saudis and Qatar have been backing the Sudanese military, which according to the New York Times, they buy a lot of weapons from Turkey, Russia, and Iran. So if that wasn't complicated enough, the Times reported that Egypt is now getting directly involved. The Sudanese military is apparently now flying drones that they bought from Turkey from a secret base in southern Egypt that the Times, I think, found with satellite imagery. The Times, they said it's not clear if it's Egyptian or Sudanese troops that are actually operating these drones, but what they think happened was after the RSF took this major city of El Fasher, the Times thinks that, you know, El-Sisi and the Egyptians got worried that the RSF was going to fully take over Sudan, and they were already pissed that like 1.5 million refugees had flown from Sudan into Egypt. And so they decided to get directly involved. And speaking of Al-Fashir Ben, like we still don't know the full death toll from that massacre. There are some analysts who believe that up to 100,000 people could have been killed in that one single like siege of a city. But now experts who are warning about what was going to happen in Al-Fashir and were right are sounding the alarm about a region in Sudan called South Kordofan, which is like one of the 18 states that makes up Sudan. The Norwegian Refugee Council published a press release yesterday saying, quote, the world is once again failing civilians in Sudan, with the clock ticking on further widespread atrocities. We got a voice note from the Norwegian Refugee Council Secretary General Jan Eglund, who is just back from South Kordofan. Here's a clip. Those who flee are mostly women and children. We saw very few men. They seem to be dead, missing or detained or cannot leave. The women walked for days together with their small children to the refugee camps where we tried to give them as much aid as we can with our local Sudanese partners. But we're overstretched and underfunded. I've hardly seen in my many years as a humanitarian worker so little available aid in such a tremendous emergency. And now we're in a countdown to a famine of biblical proportions if we cannot search aid within the next three months because the rainy season starts in May, and then the bad roads that are now difficult to navigate, they become impossible in the six months of rains. So, catastrophic situation. According to the IRC, they estimate more than 150,000 people have been killed, 12 million have been displaced by the fighting, and over 33 million people, which is about two-thirds of the population of the entire country of Sudan need humanitarian relief. So again, man, if Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize, if he turned his attention to ending this conflict, I think he would earn that. But he just doesn't care. Well, and a lot of the countries that are involved in the proxy war, we've talked about the UAE and their backing for the RSF. You talk about Egypt. These are countries that Trump can pick up the phone. Definitely, especially the Emiratis. And madman that he is and say, cut this shit out. You know, this is a solvable problem in part because of how much external powers drive the proxy fight. The other piece of this is, which we've talked about, you know, and God bless Jan Eglund and the Norwegian Refugee Council and the IRC and these organizations, because USAID would have been marshalling, not only providing the assistance, but marshalling the assistance from other countries. And that's gone now. So, I mean, if ever you're, you know, if people have resources, you know, the Norwegian Refugee Council, IRC, Save the Children, like the people that have to operate in these spaces, like a lot of them took hits from the USAID going away or a lot of their own governments are cutting funding. So, unfortunately, we're dealing with bigger problems with less resources. Did you see the Lancet, which is this distinguished medical journal, had a study out today that said the global aid cuts that were led by the kind of USAID defenestration by Elon Musk could lead to 9.4 million deaths by 2030. Because we make our cuts that a bunch of other countries follow suit. And it could actually end up being worse than that because that's what you can project out based on nutrition and health. But these wars where, I mean, that's often, you know, where you're rushing assistance to, like, it's just not there. Yeah, that's devastating. Okay, our second to last story today is about oil, fringe separatist groups, treason, and then Donald Trump's lust for revenge, Ben. So it's a fun one. So last week, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration has met with far-right separatists from the Alberta Prosperity Project three times since May. So the APP, they're pushing for a referendum for the Canadian province of Alberta to break away from the rest of Canada, become its own country for economic, governance, cultural, and human rights reasons. Now, I imagine some listeners are thinking, who cares? Why do I care about a random province in Canada? The answer is oil. Up to 84% of Canada's oil production comes out of Alberta, and around 60% of its natural gas output comes from Alberta. So there are obviously a bunch of other implications for what losing a province would mean for a country. But we're going to focus on the oil part because that's what Trump cares about. These separatists are hoping to meet again with Trump officials to, quote, discuss our feasibility study regarding a $500 billion U.S. line of credit to support the transition to a free and independent Alberta. So not only are they hoping to break away, they want us to finance it. But here's the head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a guy named Jeffrey Rath, talking to CTV about his plan. Let's watch. I understand that there's a lot of Ontarians and people in Quebec that suffer deeply from Trump derangement syndrome. But we're not doing anything untoward. It's absolutely, you know, from our perspective, we're just conducting due diligence on behalf of our fellow Albertans. We take what we're doing very seriously. And obviously the attitude of the United States towards Alberta independence, which incidentally is overwhelmingly enthusiastic, is something that informs our movement going forward. If the United States said, oh, God, we can't tolerate that, it flies in the face of, you know, the communist New World Order, we'll slap a 300% tariff on Albertans if they leave because we want you to remain resource slaves of the communist government in Ottawa, you know, it would be a totally different conversation. But that's not the case. We're gratified that it's the case. And quite frankly, the Trump administration shows Albertans far more respect than is shown to Albertans by the government in Ottawa. Love that like an Albertan separatist looks like Robert Ford in a cowboy hat with a blazer. So this was like a great scoop by the FT, but the Trump administration hasn't really been hiding their interest in this plan. Here's Treasury Secretary Scott Besant talking about the referendum on a right-wing podcast a few weeks ago. Alberta is a natural partner for the U.S. They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people. rumors that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not. Sounds like you may know something up there. Look, people are saying, people are talking. Many people. People are talking. People want sovereignty. They want what the U.S. has got. Cagey fucking soybean farmer. Yeah. So, Ben, up in Canada, this whole idea has gone over about as well as fart in a pickup truck idling at a Tim Hortons drive-thru. uh canadian i channel my inner axle rod for that canadian prime minister mark carney told reporters quote we expect the u.s administration to respect canadian sovereignty uh the british columbia's premier went so far as to call the group's actions treason according to a recent poll only 28 percent of albertans support a move towards independence i'm sure even fewer would be excited about a plan to become the 51st state but ben it's like it's an incredible story i think about the links to which this administration will go for oil, for greed, and to just punish a country that used to be one of our closest allies in the world because they will not take its orders. First of all, I just want to point out that our producer, Michael, is very focused on this story, almost suspiciously. I don't know what his ties are to Albertan separatists. There's some crypto flowing around. There's some looking into. No, I actually think this is a really important story for a couple reasons like you you remember when trump got elected the second time and he started talking about canada's 51st state and he started talking about greenland and they were talking about like william mckinley remember like you know the he's the president who kind of started formal empire of the united states right like i i i think that in a world with no where trump could do whatever he wanted um he would like alberta to be when he says canada 51st state i just think he means alberta He just wants the resources. That's where the oil is. Yeah. It's also kind of, even though I don't think they want to be in the United States, but it is kind of like the Texas. It's right wing. It's more conservative. It's more conservative, you know? And so they look at that and they're like, well, you know, wouldn't it be great if we had Greenland and the Panama Canal and Alberta? Like I actually think that's- Yeah, and Venezuela, which has the most oil in Latin America, right? And I actually think that is what he wants. Like that's what Trump would like. He would like that to happen. And so this is something that he actually will pursue, right? And I don't know that he'll invade Alberta, but this leads me to the second point, which is it is so striking to me, and this comes back to my Putin theme, that their play is so Russian, right? Remember the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk who Russia had to invade Ukraine to come to the aid of these separatists, right? Like, this is not some new plan invented by Trump, but they tried it in Greenland. Remember they sent Don Jr. there to find the separatists in Greenland? He couldn't fucking find anybody. And he's like, you know, trying to take people to lunch or something, you know? But like, that's what they want. It's so obvious what the playbook is. It's like, find like a bunch of guys like this fat ass in the hat, you know, are you allowed to say that? Sure. Okay. Who like say they're, declare themselves separatists. And then all of a sudden you have a wedge and then you got Scott Bessent, you know the seemingly serious man in the administration although he's talking to like real america news or whatever that is yeah that's like a pizza gate guy too but hey canadians pay attention to this because this is i mean i don't think it'll work but you know this is what they'd like some albertan separatists that we have to come to the aid of like they're in donetsk and we're the russian army you know yeah to me it's a story of i just think the kind of relentlessness yeah with which these guys are coming back pursuing like they don't have to roll tanks across the border into toronto but like you know they're being kind of creative and you're right they're they're stealing kind of a uh a time-honored playbook here of you know promoting independence in greenland and canada but like yeah and and i'd say the canadians at a minimum beware of like right-wing media coming up there like you know social media bots like they will try to run this play and and foster separatism and all the rest of it creepy stuff uh finally ben i just want to tell you guys all a story um about a young french man whose situation rapidly went from bad to worse and we'll talk about how it escalated so this is not about aminio macron this is about a 24 year old who showed up at a hospital in toulouse according to a police source quote in a state of extreme discomfort having inserted a large object up his rectum right so that's bad uh then the doctors tell him that to get it out they need to perform emergency surgery right so that is worse right then they do the surgery and the doctors realize that the object was an unexploded artillery shell dating back to the first world war now we're like it's so much worse that i don't even know where on the continuum we're at anymore you know what i mean of worse so they call in uh bomb disposal experts the hospital had to be evacuated it turns out that the shell dated back to 1918 and it was about uh eight inches long in grads uh and had an inch in girth less so uh with a pointy end uh perhaps worst of all ben it was a german shell talk about uh beating back the huns so anyway all's well that ends well i guess but uh a reminder to all you history buffs out there be careful be careful with what you're up to just where did you get that story it's like the daily mail or something that was hot hot in the crooked slack i i want to try to imagine the thought process and series events that led to that that occurring so um i guess it's just a story tommy about the unintended consequences of war yes conflict they never end they never end i also think if you know anyone who's worked in an er they spend an inordinate amount of time removing things from um anuses but boy what what luck It's not been my thing. Unexploded shell. Yeah. Fuck, man. Also, he might face charges of mishandling category A munitions. Imagine going to jail for that. That'd be tough. How do you explain that to your cellmate? No. Say back. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. Okay. That's it for the news portion of this segment. Stick around, though. You're going to hear Ben's conversation with Ali Baez about what the hell is happening in Iran after the protests. whether Trump might bomb them, who might come next. So very important, timely conversation. You will not want to miss it. Pots of the World is brought to you by Haya. There's something unsettling to consider as a parent. Our kids are the first generation growing up on ultra processed foods. And we are only now beginning to understand the long-term effects on our kids' health. That's why Haya exists, to give parents a real solution in a market flooded with products that prioritize candy-like appeal over actual nutrition. 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We've worked out a special deal with Haya for their best-selling children's vitamin. receive 50% off your first order. To claim this deal, you must go to hyahealth.com slash world. This deal is not available on the regular website. Go to h-i-y-a-h-e-a-l-t-h.com slash world. Get your kids the full body nourishment they need to grow into healthy adults. I'm very pleased to be joined by Ali Viz, who's the Iran project director at the International crisis group and a friend of the pod over here. Ali, welcome to the show. Great to be with you, Ben. All right. So it's been a pretty dizzying few weeks here. Just to recap, we had massive protests erupt against the Iranian regime. They felt different. They were much kind of broader based across the society. Many factors informing that. You had President Trump threaten U.S. military action if people were killed, saying help is on the way. Thousands of people were subsequently killed. And the U.S. took pretty nominal action, you know, some additional sanctions as if that's going to make the difference. But then he sent this, you know, quote unquote, armada towards Iran. Seemed like we were ramping back up to strikes. He was threatening again. Now there are negotiations going on to stop things from progressing. So that's where we are. I want to get into a few pieces of this with you, Ali. But I mean, how would you describe where things stand now for our listeners. As you said, Ben, it's really a dizzying turn of events. And just before coming online, I was checking the news and it appears that the meeting on Friday in Istanbul is now in doubt because apparently the Iranians are asking for a meeting to be moved to Oman. There are all sorts of other rumors of why it might not happen. But who knows? I wouldn't be surprised if by Friday or this weekend, President Trump has bombed Iran. I wouldn't be surprised if the outlines of a deal have been announced. Yeah, that's exactly where I am. Let's start. I want to get into the deal. Then I want to get into the regional players. And then I want to get into kind of the politics of Iran. I know that's a lot, but I think we can get through it. On the deal, what we keep hearing is familiar to me, actually, Ali, because it was what was in Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to Congress way back in 2014. Some of us remember that. It's no domestic enrichment, so essentially no nuclear program. It's no ballistic missile program, and it's no support for proxies. And I hear that, and I understand why the Iranians would want to negotiate, because they think they could probably drag out negotiations and avoid being bombed. But I also don't see the supreme leader of the Iranian leadership accepting those terms. I mean, What do you think is possible here in terms of some potential agreement? Okay, so let me first say that there are several issues with diplomacy One is the question of style The second is scope and then third is substance On style what is different now is that Iranians seem to rely much more on regional mediation than was the case in the past. As you remember, the Europeans were always the intermediaries between Iran and the U.S. But there are still some serious differences between the two sides. Apparently, the Trump administration's position is that they don't want to waste time through indirect negotiations. They want direct talks with Iran. Iran still insists as long as the U.S. posture towards Iran is so hostile, they're not going to have direct talks and they want others in the room. Interestingly, since last September, the European snapback, the sanctions, UN sanctions on Iran and have now also designated the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization after the protest. Iran-Europe relations are at a historic low. And the Iranians have decided to replace the E3, which are France, UK and Germany, with what I call the ME3, the Middle East 3, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar. These are the countries that also signed the Gaza deal with President Trump. And of course, the key criteria here is that they have personal and good relations with the president and have direct access to him. So that's a question of style. And regardless of whether the talks happen in Istanbul this Friday or at some point later down the road, there will be regional mediation. We can discuss why the region is now so interested. it. Second is the question of scope. As you said, there's always been this pressure to try to get non-nuclear issues also on the table. Every administration has been interested in that. Almost every administration has come to the conclusion that the nuclear should be the priority because it was the most urgent. But what is different now, even compared to early last year when the Trump administration had five rounds of talks with Iran, is that the facts on the ground are different. Iran's nuclear program has been significantly degraded. Iran has not enriched a gram of uranium since the 12-day war last June. And so suspending uranium enrichment is no longer a red line for Iran. It is fact on the ground. And maybe that provides some space for maneuvering without necessarily Iran giving up on its right to enrichment, which, as you remember, again, going back to the Obama years, has always been a major issue from the Iranian perspective. Then there's also the question of proxies, right? The Iranian non-state allies in the region have also been significantly degraded. It is so much harder for Iran now to send arms and money to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to the Houthis in Yemen than was the case in the past. So maybe issues like that could also be put on the table. And then finally is a question of the substance of negotiations on what will Iran get in return for these concessions. sessions? Would we get some sort of a agreement on principles and then fill in the details later, which seems to be the method of choice for the Trump administration? So there are lots of questions that are out there. And I would say that, you know, the gaps between the two sides are still pretty significant. But one thing that brings them together, I think, is the realization that the alternative, which is a conflict, is so much more unattractive. And do you think the only thing you didn't mention there is ballistic missiles, which seems like it would probably be the hardest thing for Iran to concede, right? Because it's their potential insurance policy to say we can hit U.S. bases or we can hit Israel in a kind of existential conflict. What do you look for in the substance of ballistic missiles? Yeah, I didn't open that can of worms because it's a much more difficult thing to tackle. The reality is, ever since the 12-day war in June, the Iranians concluded that actually their ballistic missiles are their only credible, viable tool of defending themselves. The policy of forward defense, of having these partners and proxies away from Iran's borders, didn't protect Iran. In a way, you can even say it invited an attack on Iran. But their missiles did get through Israel's multi-layered defense system, did inflict the kind of damage on Israel that the country had not experienced since the 1973 Yom Kippur war. So, you know, every Iranian official I've talked to since the conflict last year have told me that they've realized that their best defense is offense and their best option is to invest on their missile program. So I see no possibility of Iran giving up on its missile program or accepting Israeli terms, which are to limit the range of Iranian missiles so that they would not reach Israel. I mean, Ben, if you look at the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a group that was almost defeated by Israel ever since October 7th and especially in 2024, Israel hasn't been able to manage to disarm Hezbollah. It's impossible to imagine that a state like Iran that relies on missiles as core to its national security would ever give up this card. But are there other options? For instance, you can imagine a scenario in which the Iranians would agree to put limits on testing satellite launchers that could basically provide them with options for intercontinental ballistic missiles. That would target U.S. interests directly. And President Trump can sell that as a major victory. President Obama could never get anything like that. Biden could never get anything like that. So there are other options if both sides step aside from maximalist demand. Yeah, no, that's a good point on ICBMs, which they don't have as it is. So they're not giving up something they have. The one thing that we just didn't talk about was protests. You know, Trump's kind of giving up the game in some ways that these talks are not really about, you know, defending peaceful protests. But, you know, the momentum seems to be a regime change type strike, whether it's an actual decapitation of the Iranian regime or whether it's kind of, you know, really blasting regime targets across the board, the IRGC, the Basij militia who are involved in the crackdowns, maybe some regime leadership. And you kind of take a shot and see what happens. Thus far, that has not happened. That could still happen, like you said. To me, it seems like the reason it hasn't happened is at least in part, you mentioned the ME3, right? Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar. Behind that, I think the Saudis, you know, are at least a silent partner. But I would imagine the Saudis have, you know, I saw the Saudi defense minister come out and say, you know, something that suggested they might be okay with strikes. But everything I know about the Saudis suggests that they're probably pretty wary of a regime change war in their neighborhood. They've had a rapprochement of sorts with Iran in recent years. Why do you think that particular set of countries is intent on preventing a war? And Egypt's an interesting participant in that because in the past they've kind of been at odds with the Iranians in part because they're Gulf patrons and the Emirates in Saudi war too. But why do you think we see those countries trying so hard to avert this outcome? It's a very interesting question. So I would say two reasons, two main reasons. One is that the countries in the region have seen this movie before. They know what happens when the U.S. tries regime change in that part of the world. Even when there is a policy process, when there is a plan and even seemingly well intentions, it ends in grief. and they are the ones who pay the price for it. There will be instability, radicalization, and refugees spilling across their borders. Turkey is already very concerned. They lived with Syrian refugees for many years. Iran is a country five times the size of Syria, a country of 92 million if it becomes a failed state. It's a major problem for everyone. And before we get to that stage of the U.S. turning Iran into another failed state, they might be caught in the crossfire, as we saw in the hot summer of 2019, when Iran was cornered in President Trump's first term in office. It lashed out against ports in the UAE, against Saudi oil infrastructure, against shipping in the Persian Gulf, in the Strait of Hormones. So everybody would pay a price for that kind of confrontation. But there is another reason, Ben, which I think is often overlooked, which is the fact that as much as the regional countries might welcome a weakened Iran, they don't want to vanquish Iran because that would eliminate the last obstacle or counterweight to Israeli hegemony in the region. And that's not what they want. So I think Israel's assertiveness, its aggressiveness, its ascendance, especially with the attack on Qatar last year, has been a wake-up call for a lot of countries in the region. And they don't want to change the balance of power in a way that it would benefit Israel even more. Yeah, that's fascinating. Yeah, it seems like that Doha strike is kind of what finally got the ceasefire such as it is. It's not exactly holding, but over the line. But if I may add, I mean, just think about how extraordinary it is. Egypt, a country that doesn't even have diplomatic relations with Iran, is doing so much behind the scenes to make this happen. And President Trump is hearing the exact same thing from the leaders of Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Oman, and even Russia. It's really quite stunning concerts of regional countries coming together. And these are all people he listens to, more than I'd say like a Lindsey Graham. Well, on Iran itself, I mean, you've done great work over the years in just trying to understand both the leadership dynamic in Iran, the public opinion dynamic in Iran. And if we do, I mean, one of the questions that has not been answered, including Marco Rubio acknowledged this in recent testimony. He was asked who would come next, and he said nobody knows. If we do have a regime change scenario, either because of U.S. military action or just because of some kind of, you know, we wake up one day and it's like Syria. People are on a plane to Moscow. What is your sense of what comes next? I'm sure you get this question all the time, but who are the players that we should at least be considering as viable alternatives to the supreme leader? Well, I think we should first make it clear that there is no viable organized alternative outside of Iran. As much as there might be publicity around potential alternatives, the reality is that nobody has infrastructure on the ground in order to be able to hold the country together if there is some sort of a political vacuum at the pinnacle of power. That leaves us with options inside Iran. Inside Iran, you have, as a friend of mine says, a lot of Nelson Mandela's, but no ANC, no organized opposition inside the country who can take over. So people like Nobel laureate Nargis Mohammadi, former politician Mustafa Tajzadeh, who's been in prison for 11 years, even former prime minister, Mousavi, the leader of the Green Movement, who's been under house arrest now for 15 years. All of these people have come out very courageously, have said that time is up for the Islamic Republic and this regime has to go. Again, the problem is that they don't have any organization on the ground to be able to fulfill that objective. So you're left with either of these three scenarios, I think. One is some sort of regime transformation, similar to what happened in Venezuela, meaning that some parts of the structure decide that for their own survival, it is necessary to push aside the supreme leader, put a pillow to his face, ask him to resign or go teach at the seminary in Guam or whatever other ideas that they can come up with. And then you would have a version of the Islamic Republic, which is fundamentally different than what we have today. But it would be the same crowd, more or less, who would be in charge. The other scenario is a scenario in which you would have basically a coup. So this is the first option was more of a soft transition and transformation. The second is a hard transformation. And some people inside Iran are openly asking for some sort of Iranian bonaparte, a strongman who comes and takes over. There's a lot of speculation about the character of Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, former commander of the Revolutionary Guards Navy. And he's been in government for a long time and has very good ties with the Revolutionary Guards. and he's a very ambitious man. He's ran for president several times. So there are options like him or others that are being considered or discussed. And then the final scenario, which is a far-fetched scenario, because this is a regime that is not just deeply entrenched, but also deeply benched. And by that, I mean, then when in the 12-day war, Israel took out 30 top Iranian generals, they were quickly replaced within hours, and Iran started punching back. So in a scenario of the U.S. dismantling the Iranian state completely, which requires not just a few hours or a surgical strike, it requires weeks and weeks of bombings. You would have more, the most likely scenario is that you will have civil strife. You will have chaos because, as I said, there is no one who can hold the country together. And there is a lot of resentment within the Iranian society, not just against the regime, but also against, there's a lot of infighting among different political groups. minorities, the Kurds, the Baluchis, the Arabs, they've been mistreated than every other segment of the Iranian society. And Iran has the same fault lines that have resulted in civil war in Syria, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Yemen, and so on. So it will be one of these three scenarios, I believe. And none of them, I would argue, are necessarily better for the U.S. or for the Iranian people. Yeah. And that leads to kind of the last thing I wanted to ask you, which is about the diaspora. You know, I think it's important both because it's a large and influential diaspora. Also, if people who are not, you know, close Iran watchers are just kind of consuming things online, what they're mainly seeing is the diaspora, right? Because, you know, there's been an internet blackout in Iran. And, you know, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah, has kind of not subtly put himself forward as a potential kind of guardian of some transition. He's also kind of appeared with Benjamin Netanyahu, kind of unsubtly embracing the U.S. and the Israeli government and encouraging them to militarily conduct regime change. And look, I should say, I have a lot of friends in the diaspora who have sincere interests, obviously, in seeing a better future for the Iranian people, of being able to return to places that they either themselves left or their parents left. But I want to ask you, what is the gap between people inside Iran and the diaspora? Is it a challenge that the diaspora is just kind of not organized enough to help be a part of a transition? Is it a challenge that they're kind of out of touch with what's actually happening in the country? you know in Libya we worked with the Diaspora Transitional Council that just had no ability to manage the transition that's part of how Libya fell apart and I put that on us in the Obama administration but what is the role of the diaspora here and how would you describe kind of the difference between say a Reza Pahlavi movement versus what is feasible in Iran you touched on a little bit but I think it's worth unpacking so I say this as a member of the diaspora that it is actually a sad place that the diaspora is in right now. I do believe that there is a lot of sincerity and a sense of nationalism that drives what the diaspora does. I mean, when you see scenes of literally tens of thousands, of hundreds of thousands showing up in protests in European or U.S. cities, in support of the Iranian people. That's quite something. And I do believe that they've done a lot in trying to grab the world's attention on what's happening and shed light on the atrocities that this regime has committed, especially this time around, Ben, it is fundamentally different. You know, the speed and ferocity with which the regime brought down its iron fist is really without precedent. We can discuss why, but again, part of the reason you see the Iran case grabbing much more international attention than in some other countries in the world where a lot of bad things happen there as well, I think is thanks to the diaspora. Having said this, you know, it's for a lot of them, it's 46, 47 years in exile. And they have not managed to create a broad umbrella. They have not managed to create a realistic formula agenda that would be able to rally everyone around the same cause. And a lot of them are as intolerant as you would expect the Islamic Republic to be. You know, I think one of the reasons that Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978, 1979, succeeded in leading the revolution from the exile, is that his formula was that you're an ally if you agree with us only at 10%. The current diaspora's mood is, and I will definitely be harassed and attacked for saying this, but their mood is if you agree with us at 90%, but you disagree just at 10%, you're an enemy. And this is, I think, the reason that they haven't managed to come across as a serious alternative. Now, Reza Pallavi himself, I think it's undeniable that his stock has improved in the past few months. You know, he's a perfect foil to the Islamic Republic. There is a sense of nostalgia about the prosperity, economic prosperity and social freedom that defined his father's era. And a lot of the younger generation in Iran and abroad don't remember the authoritarian tendencies that he had, which also resulted in his downfall. But the key point is, if you look at what he did, he called for mass mobilization on January 8th. And I do believe that a lot of people came to the streets because he invited them to the streets. He had no plan for the day after. He had no agenda on how to protect these people, unarmed protesters who had come to the streets because he had called them out. And when the massacre happened, he had this interview on Fox News where he said, you know, this is a war and there is always collateral damage in a war, which I think is highly irresponsible. His hope was that Israel or the U.S. would bomb Iran. But returning to Iran on the back of U.S. fighter jets is not really a formula for building a better future for Iran. And his followers want him to reestablish an absolute monarchy. I mean, he says he wants to be a transitional leader, but his followers want him to basically, just like his grandfather and his father, to be an absolute monarch. And that alienates a lot of people. But here's the bottom line. At the end of the day, we just simply do not know how much support he has within Iran. I don't think it's in any way close to majority, but I don't have the data and nobody else does. and the only way that someone like him can present a viable alternative is to reach out to forces inside the country and to build a coalition with them and he has simply not done that so this is why i think overall the diaspora with all the well intentions that they have unfortunately have not been able to move the needle yeah it's um it's a it's just an incredibly difficult situation like you. I admire the solidarity that's been shown, the attention that's been drawn, but I think there's kind of a good lesson there and the need to really construct that viable alternative, both inside and outside of Iran. That's the only pathway to something different and better, whether it's soon or whether it's after the Supreme Leader dies or whenever it is. Well, look, Ali, people should watch you follow your work at Crisis Group. You're prolific there. You're on social media, so people should follow you there. Thanks so much for joining us to kind unpack all of this. Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me. Thanks again to Ali Vias for joining the show and talk to you guys next week. Pod Save the World is a Crooked Media production. Our senior producer is Ilona Minkowski. Our producer is Michael Goldsmith. Our associate producer is Anisha Banerjee. We get production support from Saul Rubin. Our executive producers are me, Tommy Vitor, and Ben Rhodes. The show is engineered, mixed, and edited by Jordan Cantor. Audio support by Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Thank you to our digital team, Ben Hethcote, Mia Kelman, William Jones, David Toles, and Ryan Young. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Adrian Hill is our senior vice president of news and politics. If you want to listen to Pod Save the World ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. Don't forget to follow us at Crooked Media on Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter for more original content, host takeovers, and other community events. Please subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and much more. And if you're opinionated like us, leave a review. Our production staff is proudly unionized by the Writers Guild of America East.