WSJ's Take On the Week

Prediction Markets: Investing, Gambling or a Haven for Insider Trading?

37 min
Apr 26, 2026about 1 month ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

WSJ hosts discuss major tech earnings reports and the rise of prediction markets as an investment tool. The episode examines whether prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket represent legitimate investing or gambling, featuring an interview with prediction market trader Andrew Courtney about how these platforms work and their role in portfolio strategy.

Insights
  • Prediction markets offer legible probability information to retail investors that was previously only accessible to professional traders through options pricing and complex financial models
  • The distinction between prediction markets and gambling hinges on regulatory framework (CFTC vs state gambling regulators) rather than the activity itself, creating ongoing legal ambiguity
  • Most retail investors should use prediction markets as information sources to validate their worldview rather than as active trading platforms, which require significant expertise and time commitment
  • Tech giants face a paradox: markets expect continued massive AI spending, but investors also demand proof of revenue generation from these investments, creating pressure on earnings guidance
  • Real estate REITs may present value opportunities as rental market cycles turn, with key indicators being vacancy rates and rental growth rates in upcoming earnings reports
Trends
Shift from 'Magnificent Seven' tech dominance to broader market participation as AI-heavy companies underperform year-to-date despite continued investmentGrowing retail interest in hard assets and real estate as alternative to cloud-based tech investments, reflecting portfolio diversification concernsPrediction markets maturing as information infrastructure for geopolitical and economic events, with increasing professional trader participationRegulatory tension between federal CFTC oversight and state gambling regulators over sports prediction contracts creating legal uncertaintyReal estate market inflection point as post-COVID apartment building oversupply cycles through, with potential rental rate increases in H2 2025Insider trading concerns in prediction markets as geopolitical professionals and government staffers gain information advantagesMarket maker role becoming critical in prediction market liquidity and efficiency as platforms scale to thousands of contractsAirline pricing power structural shift as baggage fees and premium cabin pricing remain sticky despite fuel cost volatility
Topics
Tech Earnings and AI Capital Expenditure AccountabilityPrediction Markets vs Gambling: Regulatory and Legal FrameworkPrediction Markets as Information Sources for InvestorsMarket Maker Role in Prediction Market LiquidityReal Estate REIT Valuation and Rental Market CyclesInsider Trading and Information Asymmetry in Prediction MarketsOptions Pricing vs Prediction Market ProbabilitiesSports Betting Contracts and Entertainment ValueFederal vs State Regulatory Authority Over Prediction MarketsPortfolio Diversification: Tech vs Hard AssetsGeopolitical Event Prediction MarketsContract Design and Market Resolution ChallengesProfessional vs Retail Trader Participation in Prediction MarketsHedging Utility of Prediction ContractsAirline Industry Pricing Power and Fuel Cost Hedging
Companies
Microsoft
Earnings report expected this week; investors scrutinizing Copilot AI product revenue generation and operating levera...
Meta
Major hyperscaler reporting earnings; advertising revenue increasingly attributed to AI investments but attribution r...
Amazon
Hyperscaler with significant AI and data center investments reporting earnings this week alongside peers
Alphabet
Google parent company reporting earnings; major AI spender facing investor scrutiny on revenue generation from AI inv...
Kalshi
Prediction market platform discussed extensively; operates thousands of contracts regulated by CFTC with detailed mar...
Polymarket
Major prediction market platform; Dow Jones (WSJ parent) has partnership; example cited of $600M Iran ceasefire contr...
Robinhood
Offers prediction contracts alongside traditional brokerage services, expanding retail access to prediction markets
Avalon Bay
Multifamily residential REIT reporting earnings this week; stock performance weak amid rental market oversupply concerns
Equity Residential
Multifamily REIT reporting earnings; investors watching for signs of rental market cycle inflection and vacancy rate ...
Essex Property Trust
Multifamily REIT reporting earnings this week; exposed to Sun Belt overbuilding and luxury rental market oversupply
Mid-America Apartment Communities
Multifamily REIT reporting earnings; investors monitoring rental growth rates and vacancy trends for cycle turn signals
Susquehanna
Major market-making firm where Andrew Courtney worked as trader before focusing on prediction markets
Realtor.com
Podcast sponsor offering real estate search tools with commute time filtering capabilities
DraftKings
Sports betting platform compared structurally to prediction markets; operates as house-based betting vs peer-to-peer ...
Dow Jones
Wall Street Journal parent company; has partnership with Polymarket for prediction market data and information
People
Andrew Courtney
Former Susquehanna trader now tracks prediction markets; guest discussing how prediction markets work and investment ...
Miriam Gottfried
Co-host of WSJ's Take On the Week; leads discussion on tech earnings and prediction markets
Telus Demos
Co-host of WSJ's Take On the Week; discusses real estate REITs and prediction market regulation
Dan Gallagher
Heard column author cited for analysis of tech AI spending expectations and revenue generation concerns
Asa Fitch
Co-author with Dan Gallagher on Microsoft Copilot revenue generation analysis
Leandro
Listener feedback on airline industry pricing power and structural repricing of business models
Reba
Featured voice in Realtor.com podcast advertisement about real estate search tools
Quotes
"They kind of all have to keep up this frenetic pace of spending... if they slow down in AI spending, it could be seen as a bad sign by the market that maybe they're bearish on it."
Miriam GottfriedEarly segment on tech earnings
"Prediction markets are legible. Market prices are not probabilities. It's a lot easier to understand what does this contract mean and relate an event to a probability."
Andrew CourtneyMain interview segment
"For me, the main use case is I pair it with news and I think it helps me understand the world from these geopolitical contracts... as an information source, they're much more legible than stock prices."
Andrew CourtneyDiscussion of prediction market applications
"I think right now it can be expensive to trade on these markets... Trading on prediction markets is more like a job. For long-term investing, there are great passive low-cost options."
Andrew CourtneyAdvice for retail investors
"Even with elevated fuel costs, airlines have structurally repriced their businesses over the past two to three years... Those increases tend to be sticky on the way up."
Leandro (listener feedback)Listener feedback segment
Full Transcript
Nearly home. Isn't home where we all want to be? Reba here for Realtor.com, the Pro's number one most trusted app. A dream home isn't a dream home if it comes with a nightmare commute. That's why Realtor.com has Real Commute, so you can search by drive time. Download the Realtor.com app today, because you're nearly home. Make it real with Realtor.com. Pro's number one most trusted app, based on August 2025 proprietary survey. Hi, Talis. Hi, Miriam. So we have an exciting conversation coming up in a bit about prediction markets. But first, I wanted to talk about some big earnings reports that are happening this week. Yeah. We have a lot of the hyperscalers reporting. Remember, these are the big tech companies that are investing a ton into AI and building out data centers. Are we not calling them the Mag 7 anymore? Have we dropped that term? I think that maybe we shouldn't call them so magnificent anymore because while they powered a lot of the gains in the stock market over the last few years, they have kind of like lost steam a little bit. Bloomberg actually helpfully has the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 total return index. And I looked at that. And as of this recording, it's basically flat year to date. But the S&P 500 total return is up. So actually, it's not the main engine this year. The not-so-magnificent seven. The not-so-magnificent seven. Or just the regular seven. But they are magnificent in terms of how much they're investing in AI. They are big spenders. And of course, we're talking about Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet. They're all reporting this coming week. And I think that investors are going to be looking at, as we've discussed in previous episodes, how much they're spending on AI. As our colleague Dan Gallagher pointed out in a Heard column, you know, if they slow down in AI spending, it could be seen as a bad sign by the market that maybe they're bearish on it. So they kind of all have to keep up this frenetic pace of spending. Well, I think they're caught between a rock and a hard place here because, well, on the one hand, as you just said, you know, the market really expects them to keep spending. you know taking the foot off the gas might you know be an indicator that oh they're running out of financial might or why don't they have more things to invest in on the other hand though and i think barons was writing about this recently i think there's a real expectation that they want to start to show some results from all this ai how is the investment paying off yeah our our colleagues again at herd dan gallagher and asa fitch were just writing that you know microsoft for example it's co-pilot product right this sort of ai powered assistance through you know that you can use throughout its products, is that generating the kind of revenues that you would expect to see? So they're kind of in a tough place, right? On the one hand, people want to see this magnificence of spending continue, but are they generating any kind of operating leverage from that, right? Are their revenues growing faster than that spending? And they can't slow down the spending and then just say, well, now, but the revenues are going to increase. So it might be a tough time for them. So I'm not shocked that the returns haven't been great so far. And also, which line item do you look at to say this, you know, revenue is from AI investment or is the product of AI investment? I mean, it's a little bit murky, but one thing that Barron said is to look at cloud services revenue. So I think that's interesting to the extent that these companies report that. If you look at that, then you could maybe get a sense of how directly this AI CapEx is playing out. Because it's not so clear as like AI revenue is like a line in the report. You have to kind of know where to look to see it. I mean, Meta makes a lot of revenue from advertising, which we don't know how much that has to do with it. Which they say is now like AI powered. Right. So just is their general, you know, kind of advertising revenue increase the result of their AI investments? I mean, I guess you kind of have to take their word for it. Right. Yeah. And whether the market does or doesn't is part of what makes them either, you know, kind of continue to shoot up in price or not. And that may be why they're not performing as well so far this year. And it's just kind of confusing to know what's driving their returns and whether their investment is paying off. Well, there are a lot of investors, I think, that want to cut through that confusion by turning their attention to something else. And so that brings us to our second kind of topic and earnings sort of focus, which is way at the other end of the spectrum. Well, not entirely, but real estate, right? Hard assets, things that are not, you know, in the ethereal realm of the cloud and artificial intelligence, but like buildings and things like that. we're going to have a bunch of reports from what in the industry they call multifamily residential REITs, that is, real estate investment trusts that own apartment buildings. We're going to be getting reports from them this coming week that include Avalon Bay, Equity Residential, Essex Property Trust, Mid-America Apartment Communities, so a bunch of them. And what's interesting is that their stocks have not actually been doing all that great lately, So that turn to hard assets hasn't paid off yet. And while the initial issue with them is probably interest rates, right? Yeah. When interest rates rose really rapidly in 2022, that was directly a negative for these stocks. Right. Because that makes it more expensive to finance real estate. The return on real estate is sort of the inverse of interest rates. And the recent notion in the market that maybe the Fed is going to have to leave interest rates higher for longer, if not even in some corners, think that they might have to hike them in response to the inflation concerns coming out of the Middle East, etc., is not great for those stocks. But another thing that's been kind of hounding them that might turn around is something that might surprise people, which is that the rental market. Now, most people think of costs and affordability in the United States, you know, costs going up, up, up. But actually, at the moment, rents nationally are growing at just 2.6 percent year over year, according to CPI data. And that's actually the lowest figure outside of the kind of weird post-COVID sort of noise in over a decade. And what has happened is that after COVID, there was this big building boom. Everybody rushed to construct big apartment buildings. Those eventually came onto the market. There was then an oversupply. The vacancy rate went up. That's especially been the case for, like, fancy, kind of expensive rental properties. I know we in New York drive by or, you know, walk by these big, empty luxury condo buildings. And I'm like, what the heck are these supposed to be? Well, and the problem is not it's not necessarily a New York problem. It's it's happening in, you know, parts of the country that were fast growing, you know, the Sun Belt regions like that, where there was maybe some overbuilding overinvestment. Yeah. People were very excited about those markets. But a lot of these companies have been talking about they are starting to see a turn in that cycle. Some of them have predicted an increase in rental kind of rates, you know, maybe in the back half of this year. So I think people will be looking very carefully at the commentary for those companies when they report earnings to see if the cycle has started, if we've worked through that excess inventory, if the vacancy rates have started to come down, and if there's actually now kind of an increase in rental rates, which is maybe not what a lot of people want to hear in their lives. But, you know, as an investor looking at these real estate companies is what you'd want to see. And that could turn very quickly. So it's something that I've been very interested in because, you know, as I look out across the market and I think about my own investment portfolio, which consists of ETFs, because that's what we're allowed to own here at the Wall Street Journal as employees here. I think about, you know, how everything across my portfolio is trading at a 52 week high except for these REITs. And so maybe now is the time to buy these on the cheap. It may not be quite yet, though. So that's something that you kind of have to look for in these earnings reports to see, OK, now is now the moment when we're bottoming out and things are turning around. Actually, this is something that we've kind of discussed with our audience before. One thing we've heard in feedback is that people don't just think of their portfolios as stocks and bonds. They think about other asset classes. And one of those things is real estate. And real estate is something that you can invest in in a lot of different ways. You can own a home, for example. That's one way to invest in real estate. But you can do it through things like we've been talking about here, real estate investment trust. So we like our audience to give us some feedback about how they are thinking about real estate investing not just the form that they do it but why What do you think you looking to get out of that And I think it will be interesting because it will dovetail into this broader discussion about whether or not people want more hard assets in their portfolio They're tired of software and AI and things that you can't touch and feel and live in the cloud. You know, these are things that are right down here on the ground on Earth. I think that's a big trend and something that we should talk more about on this show. Hint, hint. And that we might be talking about in an upcoming episode. Just maybe. So look forward to that. We also wanted to shout out to our listener, Leandro, who wrote a really compelling response to our last question to listeners, which was about airlines. Here's part of what he said. I'm bullish on the group outperforming the broader market in the near to medium term. The core reason is pricing power. Even with elevated fuel costs, airlines have structurally repriced their businesses over the past two to three years. And he gives us an example, base fare, seat selection, baggage and premium cabins. Those increases tend to be sticky on the way up. So that's sort of what we got into in our last week's episode, talking about, you know, oil prices going up, how that's going to translate into higher jet fuel costs, but how airlines are now offsetting that with higher baggage fees, which do not go away, unlike, you know, the way that fuel prices wax and wane. So as we talk about alternative ways to invest, one thing that we are constantly confronted with in the national conversation and that you read about it all the time in the Wall Street Journal are prediction markets. What role do prediction markets that have arisen – and these are names like Kalshi, Polymarket. There are also prediction contracts offered by the likes of Robinhood. Is that something that people are starting to think about as a new way to invest in their lives? A lot of people, though, might call it gambling, especially when it comes to sports. There are sports prediction contracts that you might look at and say, well, gee, how is that different from a sports bet? This is actually a really interesting legal question that's been coming up a lot lately, and it will be, I think, in the headlines for a while. You have the regulated futures market that now includes prediction markets. That is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC. There are states that have long regulated gambling within their borders. These states want to continue regulating some of these sports markets as gambling. The CFTC says no. So there is litigation between those two groups. The federal government and the states are arguing about whether or not these things constitute gambling. And I think, look, putting aside, we're not lawyers here. I don't know which of those entities is right about the legal definitions of these things. But intellectually and thinking about it as an investor, should you be thinking about prediction markets and in particular the sports element of them as gambling or investment? Is this something that you might need in your portfolio or is this something that you might do for fun or because you have a view on your favorite team? And I think some experts on prediction markets have a more nuanced view of this. And that's actually a good segue into our conversation for today, which was with Andrew Courtney of Kalshinomics. Now, Andrew is a former trader who now tracks the prediction markets. But just some disclosures up front, Kalshinomics has a partnership with Kalshi and could earn referral fees from it. Dow Jones, which is the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, has a partnership with Polymarket, which is, of course, the other big prediction market. And we had a great conversation with Andrew about these prediction markets, which obviously go well beyond just sports. And we're going to have that conversation when we come back after the break. Access to affordable credit helps me pay my employees, but I don't really need it. Inflation is killing me. But who cares? Big retailers are making record profits. That's why we support the Durbin Marshall credit card bill. See? Banks and credit unions help small businesses make payroll. This bill would cut the vital resources they need. While increasing megastore profits. They deserve it, don't they? Tell Congress, stop the Durbin Marshall money grab for corporate megastores. Paid for by the Electronic Payments Coalition. Hi, Andrew. Thanks for joining us. Great to be here. So I really wanted to get into your personal background a little bit. How did you get interested in prediction markets and what role did they play for you as a professional trader? I actually started a ways back. There was a research study called the Good Judgment Project in the 2010s. And it was basically a prediction market. It was free to join. And they had a bunch of people from the public predict macroeconomic events, geopolitical events. But no money involved? No, it was a research project. I think I might have gotten an Amazon gift card at the end. But that was the extent of it. But at the time, I was a trader at SIG. That's Susquehanna. Susquehanna, which my role involved a lot of international markets. So I was following a lot of international news. And so it felt a little bit to me like an extension of my job. And how similar do you find the types of markets that now exist in those prediction markets to what you were doing professionally before as a, you know, working at a big market making firm like Susquehanna, which makes markets in stocks, bonds, options, etc., like all the major asset classes? Yes, it varies quite a bit. Some of them are almost exact analogs like will the S&P finish above 7,000 at the end of this week? There are option prices on the S&P 500 that pretty directly from the option prices imply those probabilities. So while the prediction market maybe makes it more legible to the public, option market makers already know these probabilities and are already trading them for many years. Can you talk a little bit more about what a market maker is and why it's important to understand that in the role of market makers in prediction markets? Certain asset classes or exchanges will define a market maker role for a specific type of security, which often comes with requirements. Say you have to provide two-sided quotes on some market for some percent of the day. They have to be no- That means you have to be out there saying, I'll buy for this, I'll sell for that. You're always available to be- To buy ourselves. And the exact rules vary a lot by asset class or even exchange. But generally, you're providing a buy and a sell price consistently and taking the other side of incoming orders. And so for a lot of markets, there might not be natural liquidity in some niche political market on a CalShea. And especially CalShea has thousands of markets. There's probably not someone who wants to trade with you at the instant you want to trade and has a posted price. And so market makers serve this very useful economic function of, you know, intermediating across time and supply and demand on these markets. And especially when you have a really wide set of markets like you do in options or prediction markets, it helps market quality significantly to have a market maker. And importantly, that's something that makes a prediction market different from, I mean, You know, you could argue spiritually it's like making a bet, right? Like gambling. But, you know, when we think of traditional sort of betting, you're betting against the house, right? Like the bookie or casino or whatever comes up with the odds maker, comes up with odds, and you can say that, oh, I think it's more or less likely than that. But in a market like Polymarket or Kalshi, no one is setting the odds except for what the views of the people buying and selling are, right? So it's the same way that nobody sets, oh, we think that the stock price, IBM is $50 today. Do you want to buy or sell? It's like there are buys, there are sells, and they kind of match in the middle. And that's how prediction markets work, right, and distinguishes them from. Right. I'm not a market maker on Kalshi. I can post, if I want, two-sided buy and sell prices and manually adjust them. Now, I'm not really – I'm providing liquidity in a sense, but I'm not doing that all day and updating my markets every few seconds as news comes out. But I can put these orders in and provide liquidity, and that's different than the environment on Sportsbrook or Casino where you're playing against the house. So prediction markets let you bet on all kinds of things, weather, sports, politics, geopolitical events. But I want to understand a little bit more about how the process works. I mean recently a trio of polymarket accounts made 600 betting on a ceasefire in Iran for example So can you tell us more about how the process works Like who starts a contract like that and how would it then get going to the end result Well, on CalShe, which I'm most familiar with, they will list the contracts. And they have thousands of contracts on all kinds of different things. And so, yeah, the exchange is making a decision. And importantly, they're writing the rules. And so there's the headline of the contract, you know, will so-and-so say this word? But, and most people don't read the fine print, each market has a PDF document that sometimes is very long and detailed. Like, does the plural of the word count? Does the past sense? Does it count if they say it in Spanish? And a lot of people get tripped up by some of these things don't match exactly. And those PDFs are written by Kalshi? Yes. So they have a market design team. So, and, you know, in reality, it's really hard to map reality sometimes to a yes or no. Sometimes it's simple. You know, who won the election? There are sources, data sources or journalists, you know, have good- Even things like that have been contested in the past, right? So it's messy. You need some source that says, right, okay. Yeah. There's been some growing pains on mapping reality to a yes or no that everyone agrees on. And I think that's to be expected. I think the job of writing good markets is a challenging one. And, you know, as this asset class matures, I think you're going to get better and better market definitions over time. And frankly, it's a hard job. It seems very labor intensive. There's a part of even being a trader that's, you know, pricing odds and probabilities. And there's a part of being a trader that's like really understanding this legal document and maybe precedence. So you kind of have to be both a mathematician and a contract lawyer to really master this. So going back to that example of a ceasefire in Iran, right, a contract to say whether or not that will happen on date X or Y. Who is generally making up the population of people placing bets there? Is it possible to say how much of that is being done by professional market makers versus just individuals? Give us the flavor of that. Yeah. So on Calci, you don't know who you're trading against. Okay. On Polymarket, you can see like a wallet ID, but people can have multiple wallets. You're not really sure. You can see the history of that wallet. I've written about this a little bit. In financial markets, you have a couple of different, say, species of trader. You have someone who is called a noise trader in financial literature. They don't really have information. They're probably on average losing money. There are sharp bettors that have information or sharp traders. I use the term better trader pretty intentionally because it is making a bet. So, yeah, you probably have people who are experts in geopolitics, people following the news extremely closely. And, you know, as we've seen in certain markets, there have been insiders on geopolitical events. In Israel, some reservists traded on some confidential military information. And I think the Trump administration actually advised its own staffers. The Wall Street Journal reported not to trade on prediction markets around geopolitical events like this. I guess what's interesting about that to me as well is that this question of whether or not there are insiders, and I'm not using that term sort of legally, whether insider meaning somebody who actually knows what's about to happen, or insiders, just people who are so familiar with the dynamics that they can make much more informed bets than you are. if i'm betting in those markets maybe i don't like that because i don't have that inside information and uh you know i'm always worried that that you know i'm kind of you know what's the saying you look around the table you wonder who the the bag holder is it's you right um but if i'm looking if i'm using those markets for information i mean i'd like to see more insiders doing that right like i want people to have an incentive to bring their information to the market and say you know what this thing that seems remote right that you know there's going to be some political event you know so and so is going to win this election like well gosh that's a deep red district how could a you know how could a democrat win that well actually you know somebody who really understands that district knows something i want that insider information right i want informed traders in the market i think when you talk about insiders that um you know betraying a confidentiality agreement And I don't think those incentives are great for the market. But, yeah, you definitely want informed people that are doing research. And I just I don't think it's good, you know, to leak sensitive military information and things like that. So there's a difference in my mind. You mentioned like different things that these could be compared to. It could be compared to betting. It could be compared to, you know, gambling in a casino. It could be compared to investing. Like an option. on the S&P 500. Would you consider opening up a contract on a prediction market to be more akin to investing or more akin to betting? I think there's a spectrum, as there is with a lot of things. I mean, if they opened up a contract on, will the coin flip be heads or tails? That's clearly betting. And some of these contracts, will someone say a specific word? That feels more like betting to me, you can argue for the hedge utility of some of these markets, except people have real exposure to elections. So I think there's a credible reason why people would want to trade on that. Unlike stock market investing, which the stock market can go up, the pie can get bigger, prediction markets are zero sum and with fees are negative sum, which are similar to options, zero sum, negative sum with commissions. But the question is, is it on sports betting side, I call that more entertainment. So do people get entertainment value out of it? And is there, on the more investment-like side, is there hedge utility in trading these things? Or is it speculation? But from a regulatory point of view, I mean, the reason that these things, these contracts are allowed and regulated by the CFTC is that they are to be used for hedging, right? And though the government doesn't specify, you know, what you might be hedging, like even a sports betting contract, I mean, some people consider that a form of hedging. Do you think that that's how, you know, these markets are being used as economic hedges? I mean, I think when you see all the volume on sports contracts, my gut feeling is that most of that is not hedging. Most of that is entertainment. And there might be some use cases that are hedging. At the same time, how many trades and oil futures are actually hedging and not speculation? And so there's not really a fine line. I think the entertainment side is maybe a little bit a different argument. I don't bet on sports personally. I don't get entertainment value out of it. When I make bets on prediction markets, for me, it's because I want to make money. I'm not really hedging anything. But a lot of people do use this for sports. And, I mean, I don't know if you know the answer to this, but, you know, is this how different is this from the sports specific platforms like a DraftKings kind of thing? In both cases, you're betting on the outcome of a sporting event, right? Structurally under the hood, it is pretty different. Like we talked about, are you betting against the house or are you betting against whoever's in the market? And the prediction markets like to say they're peer to peer. So it could be anyone on the other side. But my gut, again, would be that on average, the people posting limited orders in these books are often professionals. Professional what? Professional sports bettors? Or are they people from the world of, you know, market-making firms who are good at, you know, kind of just odds-making as part of their job as an investor? It could be either. And I think particularly in the sports case, there are very sharp sports bettors. And I know they're, you know, using some of these platforms. So it is, yes, peer-to-peer, but that doesn't mean your peer is, you know, a guy in a bar on his phone. He's probably a guy in front of a computer. We're going to take a quick break, and when we come back, we're going to be talking about whether and how you as an investor might want to use prediction markets as part of your own portfolio. When we come back in a minute with Andrew Courtney. All right, welcome back. So, Andrew, tell us about how you use prediction markets as either investing or speculating, or what activities are you doing in prediction markets So I read The Wall Street Journal every day and I think it helps me stay informed about the world But it very rare that I go from reading the article to placing a trade in my brokerage account And so I kind of think about prediction markets the same way. I often will read an article and then check out, is there a relevant prediction market contract? If the news was surprising, did it move? And I say, oh, does that make sense? Do I understand why this is moving? What this probability is? And so for me, the main use case is I pair it with news and I think it helps me understand the world from these geopolitical contracts. And that's just as a viewer, a passive viewer of the prediction market. Exactly. And I think for most investors, that's the best use case. I don't think most investors need to be trading these platforms. But I do think as an information source, they're much more legible than stock prices. What does Apple trading at a certain price mean? But some of these things, you know, will this event happen by this date? I think I'm much more legible about understanding the world and seeing that probability change and change because of, say, some news story, I think is a good way to understand. So you don't have to go in and do your discounted cash flow analysis to figure out if this is a fair price. You could say, oh, what does this prediction market contract say? And, oh, that makes sense that it would be moving in that direction because of what the news was today. Or was this news surprising? Or was it already priced in? And not to say these contracts are always efficient. And so sometimes when I look at it, I say, you know what? That doesn't make sense to me. And maybe I do a little more research. And then maybe I also have some reason why the price might be wrong. And that's when I actually want to trade, when not only do I feel like I understand it, but I think there's some reason the market's wrong. And so that's actually pretty low percent of the time when I'm looking at this. But I need all those things to want to trade. Prediction market information is being used all over the place. As a matter of fact, our parent company here at the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, has a partnership with Polymarket. What are things people should know about the quality of that information? When should they think that it's good information? When should they be skeptical of it? Is there anything you can tell us about that? Sometimes friction markets, especially the people working there, are described as truth machines or maybe as oracles. And I don't think I don't treat them that way. I treat them as an educated guess. So a kind of fuzzy probability. And if it's way off, then someone has an incentive to come in and make a profit off that. Can you give an example of a trade that you actually made money on? So there was a contract on who will President Trump nominate to be the next Fed chair. And even after he announced Kevin Warsh, his odds didn't go all the way to 100 percent. And I think it was a month, month and a half where somebody bought millions of contracts of Judy Shelton to be nominated as Fed chair. What the heck? I mean, millions. She was a name from the past, you know? I was trying to figure out, is this some sleeper probability? And you could tell it was one person doing this based on the flow? I wasn't sure, but it seemed like it was likely a small person on the market. One piece of that is if you're buying millions of shares at a penny, you're not actually putting up much money, right? But to take the other side of it actually costs a lot of capital. So there's much more capital on the no side. And, you know, someone could know something. I sat there watching it for a little bit. But I thought, OK, well, this is actually really important information if the Fed chair is not going to be Kevin Warsh. And, you know, if that was the case, I'd probably hear about it from some Fed watchers or it might leak or the bond market might be doing funny things. And I only saw it on Twitter and prediction market. So I put a small percent of my portfolio, not a huge percent, in betting on the no, which paid out a dollar once the nomination came to the Senate. The funny thing is, even though I won that bet, I don't actually know if it was a good bet. When you buy – if you're buying no at 97 percent, you need to be right a lot. Right. And so maybe the two rods were different and I just got lucky. Because you don't have complete information about the likelihood of Judy Shelton having been the nominee. Right. If we had to play this out many, many times, I get a feel for my track record. But it is hard to say sometimes when you're trading these really tail contracts. Fascinating. We should have professional traders on this podcast more often. We learn a lot more about how you operate. Well, but to that point, a lot of the feedback from our listeners is often that they are not very active. Exactly. They are set it and forget it. They're looking more for asset classes and shifting between that. For that type of investor, the person who's not super active but who does think about kind of portfolio construction or kind of big picture trends in their portfolio, how should they be using or maybe should they be using at all prediction markets in their process? I think right now it can be expensive to trade on these markets. I do think it's worth looking at the prices and thinking about does this match how I view the world when I make these investments into various asset classes? I think that's a great thing to check out. I think trading on prediction markets is more like a job. You're doing work, and that work gets you rewarded if you're doing sharp insights. But for long-term investing, there are great passive low-cost options that don't require a ton of work, set it and forget it, retirement type thing. I think most people should be doing that. And if you want to do the job of a trader, then put a lot of time into it and effort. right now I think it's better used as an information source than as something to jump into and start trading. So bottom line, why is there so much kind of talk and excitement about prediction markets? Because as we've been discussing, at the end of the day, they're part of the same continuum as other kinds of investing. What is it that they present that is new or interesting or novel in the markets that you think that you've for now dedicated your professional life to writing about them and thinking about them? What is it that is at their core interesting about prediction markets? So they're legible. Market prices are not probabilities. It's a lot easier to understand what does this contract mean and relate an event to a probability. And, you know, market professionals already view prices with probabilities based on, you know, options, but only market participants really understand those probabilities. This provides a view to the public that's, I think, much more easily understandable about a lot of things people care about. And so I think that legibility is a really important thing. And like we said, there are contracts that don't map cleanly to other trade instruments in the market, like the election contract. So if I were to say like the highest use case, it's a combination of those two things. And listen, there's a lot of other things going on that are maybe less societally important that are important for the business of these companies. But when I say these are interesting, that's what I mean. I guess it's interesting. You know, we talk about democratization of markets and a lot of people, companies talk about democratization of markets. And what you're saying is, you know, when a professional looks at the price of the S&P, they can see what is baked into that. They can see what futures are contemplated in that price. You or I, maybe you're not so good at doing that. I'm pointing at me and Miriam, not at you, by the way. But now I can see. I can see a prediction, you know, a percentage probability on a market that does map to that. So you're saying I'm getting information that might have only been accessible if I really knew what I was doing and understood the math. And now I can just sort of see it on a page. All right. Well, you know, and if you want to bet on them, caveat emptor, right? We're not recommending that. Andrew, thanks so much for your time and for this great conversation. Pleasure being here. Thank you very much. And that's everything you need to know to take on your week. The show was produced by Alexis Moore, Anthony Banzi, and Michael LaValle. Michael LaValle is our sound designer. Michael also wrote our theme music. Aisha Al-Muslim is our development producer. And Chris Zinsley is our deputy editor. For even more, head to WSJ.com. I'm Miriam Gottfried. And I'm Telus Demos. Until next time. I thought it might be cute to be like, there's a 99% chance that it's a great conversation. You'll be like, I'll be like, well, I'm an insider because I already was in. Okay, I like that. Why not? It's dorky. Or you could say like, I think it's 100%, so I would buy that. You'd say like, well, that's insider trading, TELUS. You already know it's... Is that too dorky?