Bannon`s War Room

Episode 5266: Where We Stand In An Offramp To The War; Cutting An America First Deal

0 min
Apr 2, 2026about 2 months ago
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Summary

Steve Bannon and guests analyze President Trump's national address on the Iran conflict, debating whether it signals an off-ramp or escalation. Market analysts and military experts discuss the speech's impact on oil prices, geopolitical strategy, and the administration's command of events in the region.

Insights
  • Oil markets interpreted Trump's 'stone age' rhetoric as escalation signal rather than de-escalation, causing crude to spike from $98 to $111-112/barrel overnight despite presidential intent to wind down conflict
  • Disconnect between stated 2-3 week timeline and military asset deployments (carrier strike groups, 82nd Airborne, MEUs) suggests possible ground incursion escalation despite public messaging of air campaign only
  • Administration lacks clear negotiation channel with Iranian leadership; reliance on third-party intermediaries and Israeli actors undermines diplomatic off-ramp credibility and creates uncontrolled escalation risk
  • NATO and allied nations show reluctance to assume Strait of Hormuz security responsibility, forcing continued U.S. commitment despite Trump's pivot to shift burden to oil-consuming nations
  • Speech ambiguity on nuclear material objectives and shifting war rationales (from nuclear weapons to missiles to infrastructure) indicates either unclear decision-making or intentional strategic ambiguity
Trends
Commodity market sophistication in reading military/political signals: traders pricing in escalation despite official de-escalation messagingDecoupling of presidential rhetoric from military asset deployment as escalation indicator in modern conflict analysisEnergy security becoming primary geopolitical leverage point; oil infrastructure targeting as economic warfare tool reshaping Middle East strategyAllied burden-shifting failure: developed nations unwilling to assume security costs even when directly economically dependent on regional stabilityThird-party intermediary reliance creating uncontrolled escalation vectors in high-stakes diplomacy; Israeli actions constraining U.S. negotiation flexibilityRefiner and transport sector hedging behavior driving commodity volatility independent of physical supply disruptionEscalation trap dynamics: incremental military commitments creating path-dependency that forecloses diplomatic off-rampsDollar weakness correlation with Middle East conflict escalation; currency pressure limiting economic policy flexibilityGround troop insertion possibility emerging as final escalation option despite public air-campaign-only framing
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All Family Pharmacy
Independent pharmacy delivering medications including ivermectin, antivirals, and maintenance drugs directly to home
Real America's Voice
Media outlet providing live coverage and commentary of presidential address on Iran conflict
Bloomberg
News organization reporting on 2027 budget deficit projections and economic policy impacts
Wall Street Journal
News outlet reporting on UAE military participation readiness in Strait of Hormuz operations
Jerusalem Post
Israeli news source reporting on UAE military engagement levels and operational commitments
People
Steve Bannon
Leads discussion analyzing Trump's Iran address and market implications with expert guests
Eric Bowling
Tracks oil market movements overnight, explains refiner hedging behavior and price spike mechanics
Brandon Weikert
Analyzes escalation trap dynamics, ground troop deployment signals, and Vietnam War parallels
Kurt Mills
Critiques speech ambiguity, Israeli constraint on U.S. diplomacy, and lack of command of events
John Solomon
Provides commentary on presidential address alongside Bannon for Real America's Voice coverage
J.D. Vance
Attempting to arrange meetings with Iranian leadership through third-party intermediaries
Marco Rubio
Pitching missile-focused war objectives and defending tactical military achievements
Benjamin Netanyahu
Directing Israeli military operations including assassination attempts on Iranian negotiators
Donald Trump
Delivers national address on Iran conflict, signals 2-3 week timeline and potential escalation
Quotes
"Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done so it should be easy. And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally."
Donald TrumpOpening segment
"We are in this military operation, so powerful, so brilliant against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days. And the country has been eviscerated, and essentially is really no longer a threat."
Donald TrumpMid-address
"The lack of a defined off ramp or a timetable is what really spooked it is right now spooking the oil market badly."
Eric BowlingMarket analysis segment
"It's a feedback loop. You try to make a different course correction. Unfortunately, though, you keep flowing in. You keep doing things that are going to make that course correction impossible."
Brandon WeikertEscalation trap explanation
"I think Israel is wants this war to continue for the foreseeable future. And they want the Americans to bear the battle."
Kurt MillsIsraeli constraint analysis
Full Transcript
These terrorists, who have nuclear weapons, would be an intolerable threat. The most violent and thuggish regime on earth would be free to carry out their campaigns of terror, coercion, conquest, and mass murder from behind. A nuclear shield. I will never let that happen. And neither should any of our past presidents. This situation has been going on for 47 years and should have been handled long before I arrived in office. The short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. This is yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons. They will use them, and they will use them quickly. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done so it should be easy. And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It'll just open up naturally. They're going to want to be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing, and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up. The president is looking for an off ramp. Well, perhaps politically he is, but militarily, he talked much more about escalation and effectively using words like the stone ages, sending them back to the stone ages. That sent the market tumbling in the wrong direction. So there's no doubt that politically the White House is hoping for this to come to an end, but that is not what the president signaled last night. But I think the biggest takeaway is that there was so little new in that speech. And had he given this five weeks ago before going into Iran, or perhaps right after, would that have changed public opinion? It's unclear. It made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing. Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders' death. Do you think he made that case? I thought he started with the necessity. We talked about, you mean, necessity, the objective, then what's the plan? I thought the necessity laying out the bill of particulars in Iran was fairly effective, not entirely accurate, as you just pointed out. I think it's important to remind people what Iran is about. It is a real threat. There are reasons to be doing what we're doing. I thought when he laid out the objectives and the plan, I don't think we heard too much. And my takeaway was that we might be in for an escalation of this war. I mean, he said if there's not a deal, he put back on the table. He didn't talk about a deal very much. Well, he said there's not the energy targets, everything else he'd been talking about. So if we were, thought we might hear a de-escalatory speech, so we're going to wrap this up in a couple of weeks, actually, he heard something quite different. And he said, he visits the families at Dover. And he said we must honor them by completing the mission. And then he basically threatened Iran that we're going to prepare to send you back to the Stone Age. So I think this war is going to continue for some time. And that's what I heard. Next, and here's what I learned. Iran makes a deal to make sure they never do this again, or we will destroy their infrastructure to survive as a nation. That's their choice. And that's the big takeaway tonight for me. We'll hit them with missiles very hard again. We have all the cards they have done. It's very important that we keep this conflict in perspective. American involvement in World War I lasted one year, seven months, and five days. World War II lasted for three years, eight months, and 25 days. The Korean War lasted for three years, one month, and two days. The Vietnam War lasted for 19 years, five months, and 29 days. Iraq went on for eight years, eight months, and 28 days. We are in this military operation, so powerful, so brilliant against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days. And the country has been eviscerated, and essentially is really no longer a threat. While he had a chance to speak to the Iranian leadership, the replaced Iranian leadership, he did not make an offer or any discussion of what the US-Iran relationship could look like. I mean, these are two countries that have every reason that they could be natural allies historically in various moments, a long time ago they were. But there was only threat to the Iranian leadership. There was no incentive. I thought the second really interesting thing was that the president basically dismissed the operations to go get the nuclear material. You may remember that when this war started, that was supposed to be the number one objective, keep Iran from making a bomb. And that means taking away the near bomb-grave material. This time he said it would take months for them to get near the nuclear depth. Also this morning, US Central Command just released a new video about strikes. And SENTCOM's commander said this in releasing this video. He wrote, now in our fifth week of the campaign, it is my operational assessment that we are making undeniable progress. We don't see their Navy sailing. We don't see their aircraft flying. And their air and missile defense systems have largely been destroyed. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us, as we asked. Go to the strait and just take it, protect it. Use it for yourselves. This movie end. Here's what President Trump said tonight. If you're in Iran, you better be listening. I'm willing to do a deal to make sure you don't become the largest state sponsor of terrorism again. I'm willing to do a deal that will allow you to exist under certain conditions. You have to change your behavior. But if you don't do a deal, I'm going to decimate your ability to come back economically. President Trump outlined targets that would destroy the ability of this regime to survive over time. If you don't take this deal, we're going to blow up all the things you need to come back. This was a defining moment in this campaign. He defined the end state. He set the objectives early on. We're inside the 10 yard line. And he's telling Iran how this movie ends. It's up to you. We could do it through diplomacy. And if you reject diplomacy, this will end with a decimation of your ability to ever come back economically. This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies, because we're going to make the evil on these people. Here's the thing, I've got a free shot on all these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of them. I know you don't like hearing that. I know you've tried to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen. And where do people like that go to share the big line? Maga, media. I wish in my soul I wish that any of these people had a conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. War Room, here's your host, Stephen K. Bowne. It is Holy Thursday, 2 April in the River Lord, 2026, the foremost important days in the Christian calendar. Holy Thursday, Good Friday, Holy Saturday, and Easter Sunday. And of course, the world will be here to commemorate those with you all these days. Many specials will work on them right now for the Easter weekend. A lot going on. Of course, the speech last night, I want to thank Real America's Voice for allowing us to do live coverage and then commentary and observations last night of the speech. Of course, the president, I think, laid out what is a beginning objectives were, whether you agree with it or not. The progress he felt that the armed forces had made, that the military forces, the very specific military objectives, and I think laid out a two or three week program to defang and declaw the Iranian military. And the existing regime or whoever's taken over and what part they've actually taken over. And kind of defined, you know, hey, straight or her moves. If you're taking all out of there, it's you should cherish it and you should and you should step up to the plate. Now, he did have an escalatory ladder part where he told the Iranians, which I think is not exactly clear of what he's looking for. Whether it's a ceasefire or an actual deal and who can actually make that deal. The reports last night that I think Israel tried to take out or attempted to take out or did take out is still pre-modeled. Who J.D. Vance is trying to work through to actually set meetings up because there's no direct communication right now with Iranians is all through third parties. So that part's pre-merky. But the president did say that there would be a major escalation. If if they couldn't come to some sort of arrangement and actually was in quite stark terms of what we would do, including take down the electoral grid and destroy their oil infrastructure. I think that's that part of it, given the rest of us, pretty methodical about what he what he what he set out to do, what he's done and what is left to do is caused, I think, a little how you say turbulence in global markets. Erick Boling joins us. Eric, talk talk to I want to go back because last night we didn't have you as a commentator because you were watching the markets full on. I think it's an important exercise for the audience to see it through the eyes of how the markets see it. So let's go back to right before the speech started because you were tracking this quite closely as the speech progressed and then overnight because overnight now we're in a situation where I think that the global oil markets are saying they're they're not enthusiastic about what they heard in the speech. So let's go back over time. Let's take your time on this last night as you were behind the scenes working this as we were listening to the speech and then doing commentary with John Solomon, Pasovic and the rest of the real America voice team. Steve, before the speech, I sent you we were at $98 of barrel after market trading, sitting very comfortably down off the highs, but not where we should be. We should be in the 60s or 70s. However, I sent you. You asked me, what is the oil market? What are the oil guys that the real boots on the ground? What are they thinking? I said something like to the moon or something with that respect. Because someone, one of the traders had emailed me, a guy who doesn't need oil prices higher or finer, who needs them lower. So it's cheaper to run through the system. He said off off to the races or to the moon or something like that. I watched the trade. It really didn't move very much during the speech. I kept updating you when he talked about the part where he said, we're going to send them back to the Stone Ages. I think that triggered something because that's really where it started to tick up to $99 barrel, $100 barrel. When he finished, I think traders were hoping to hear some sort of legitimate off ramp and it just spiked one or one, one or two, one or three, one or five, one or seven, one, one or eight or so. This morning I got up, Steve, and I was just shocked. One hundred and eleven, one hundred and twelve dollars a barrel. That's 13, 15 percent, thirteen dollars, fourteen dollars a barrel higher. And I just have to tell you that translate folks into on the pump. Just the overnight move in crude oil, there's 42 gallons to a barrel of crude oil. Fifty five in the industrial world, about crude oil barrels are 42 gallons. Unfortunately, that turns into about a 60, 70 cent move up on the pump price just on the overnight alone, what it did overnight. So anything that's purchased at these levels, it's going to make its way to the system. And you'll see a, you know, you could see a four seventy, four seventy five. And again, the longer we stay, these elevated levels, the more likely it continues to go higher. And my concern is Trump addressed this. He addressed it like he said, you know, they'll come down soon. I've been doing this a really long time, Steve. He can get the oil price down soon. He can't get the pump price down unless he wants to go in like government manipulation of price, which we don't want. We just do not want our, you don't want to open that Pandora's box because the minute Democrat gets in there, then, you know, they can destroy the economy. So there's a lot going on. I think there is also very quick, you know, Steve, we, you and I have been talking for three weeks, what's the best off ramp? You know, we sent it to Suzy Wilds, we sent to the Pete Hegceth, they've got it. We, we said they need to pound Iran hard, hit them hard, hit their water infrastructure, hit their highway infrastructure, even maybe hit their media infrastructure and then get them to relent and maybe just maybe. And I'm very hopeful on this, that that's what's going on right now. He's going to literally lay into them as hard as he can right now to bring him to the bargaining table and cut whatever deal he wants. I hope he picks our deal. Our deal is the best, the smartest. Everyone walks away with a little bit of their own skin. But we walk away like a rose and he becomes the business man that gave us energy independence for real forever. Hang on one second. Sure commercial break here at Bowling on the other side. The dollars convertibility into gold ended in 1971. Gold was fixed at $35 an ounce. Well, fast forward to the day and the US dollar has lost over 85% of its purchasing power. Gold, on the other hand, is increased in value by over 12,000%. That's why central banks are buying gold at record levels. That's why major firms like Vanguard and BlackRock hold significant positions in gold. And that's why I encourage you to consider diversifying your savings with physical gold from Birch Gold Group. But it starts with education. Birch Gold just announced their learn and earn precious metals event. This free online event rewards you for learning the basics of investing in precious metals. Sign up to get a free silver on your next purchase. Get even larger incentives as you go. The more you learn, the more you can earn. But you must act now as this special event only runs through April 30th. The dollar lost its anchor in 1971. You don't have to lose yours. Text my name, Bannon B-A-N-N-O-N to the number 989898 to join Birch Gold's learn and earn precious metals event by April 30th. Text Bannon B-A-N-N-O-N to 989898 and do it today. War Room, here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon. OK, there's breaking news. And as soon as we get somebody to read it, it just came to me. There's been some update on Tina Peters. The Tina Peters situation, the clemency situation, we're going to get on top of that right now and be back to you guys momentarily. Colorado Court of Appeals just put forward a document that's supposed to be at eleven o'clock, came in a little bit early. So, Eric, the present went out and define as much as you can define because remember, you're in the middle of a war and you don't want to tell the enemy too much. Although you do want to signal maybe your overall intent. He did. And when we talk about an off ramp, he did say, hey, look, we've decimated the military. There's more. There's still more to do because they're still getting scatter, scatter shots into. And I think at Israel last night, my understanding is that they had 10 missiles launched at them. So that's, I guess that's more in scatter shot. But he did lay out, hey, this is where we're going to do this. As soon as I've done that, we're finished, except for he laid out some deal with the regime. I'm not so sure as much as the regime is getting pounded that they feel in their heart of hearts that they're losing this. I think a lot of people in that regime feel that they've shifted, that they've taken the initiative. And although they're crippled through conventional military aspects, that they have shifted the center of gravity of this fight to the Persian Gulf. And I think it's pretty evident to everybody, although the president praised the Arab states last night, we know specifically that the Arab states have not stepped into a military situation. Whereas UAE was rumored, and I think it was the Wall Street Journal said they were telling President Trump and prepared to actually participate in active military engagement to open the straight or fore moves. The Jerusalem Post is reporting this morning that that's in fact, maybe inaccurate, that UAE was not that tough on it. So given the fact that President Trump, two things I think, rolled the markets is number one. He did leave it kind of open of whose actual responsibility is to open the straight or fore moves. Part of the implication, it would be the Chinese and Chinese Communist Party, because it was very specific on those of you who take the oil, not those of you who produce the oil. So he got, I think the Arabs, or try to get the Arabs off the hook of any obligation they have, which I think is a huge obligation. It should be theirs. But he said those who take the oil, which is clearly Japan, the Chinese Communist Party and the NATO nations, it's your responsibility. In addition, he did, he was very specific and used, you know, the bomb them to a stone age phrase of, I think, Curtis LeMay from the Vietnam War in talking about if he didn't get a deal. Now, I want to go back. What do you think happened overnight? How the markets processing this, because the numbers we're seeing this morning are, you know, much higher and the volumes have been kind of greater. So it looks like it's going to, you're going to have even a tougher time of drawing these back. And it looks like nothing the president can say is going to do that. They're going to look for specific actions, your thoughts. Yeah, a couple of things there, Steve, you're right. So it's almost a closed loop. So the producing Arab producing countries are selling to China and India, predominantly and and NATO countries as well, Europe. So it's almost a closed loop over there. So we don't have a major, major issue over there. But with oil, it's a global market. If you have an oil that's cheaper over there to transport, it will bring all prices up. There was that opportunity at one point. He said, you know what, Europe and China, you guys take over the the straight of form was Rubio's right. We're not that sensitive to the straight of form was oil flowing through there. But we are sensitive because it's it's it's like a tail effect. So when Middle Eastern crew jumps up 10, 20, 30 dollars a barrel, ours is going to as well. Why not just let them handle it? The off ramp was and he was right there. Let them handle it. We're going to we did our job. We eliminated their ability to deliver a nuclear weapon. And the Iranian people, the Persian side of the Iranian people could say, you know what, screw you guys. Do we want something different? That was the off ramp. I think the market stayed calm until when he when he was concluding, it literally didn't jump until he finished. They were looking for a definitive exit strategy. And he didn't provide that. That would have been a certainly calming tone. As soon as he was done, Steve, it was off to the races. And we're talking, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars in value of oil trading from ninety eight dollars a barrel to one hundred and twelve. Where it is today right now. Is this speculation or is this people trying to hedge out in in future months? What they're what they make sure that they're covered? Steve, Steve, speculators right now are are fly on the ass of the oil market right now. It's the people I was talking to in Dallas last week. It's the the transport companies, the people who are shipping it or even piping oil. And it's more importantly, the refiners, the refiners are very, very jittery. They're very scared of a massive spike, which we've got or for it to stay this high, this long. Because remember, they have to buy oil. It takes 30 days. Sometimes they get it through the systems and sometimes more if they have to ship it and get it through the system. And so they're susceptible to these higher prices down the road. And that that hurts their business, that hurts their margins. And they're very, very skittish on higher oil prices, but to the tea, to every refiner I talked to, and I met with them in Dallas, one of the biggest in the world and others I talked to, they're very, very scared of the oil market. They're very nervous about higher price. I haven't yet to hear someone and these aren't speculators. These are actual physical delivery folks trading it who are to a person higher, higher, higher. What do you think? Higher, what do you think? Higher. Unfortunately, there's no signal. So the markets can go up and down based on rhetoric or based on comments from Trump or the IRGC. But usually those ones are, you know, those are the ones you fade, you know, you don't buy into it. They're talking up exactly what they're seeing, floating on the water, being produced and being shipped into our refinery systems. Eric, hang on for a second. I want to bring Brandon Weicker in here. We're also going to get Kurt Mills up. Brandon, your assessment. The president, I believe, felt that he gave, he talked about the off ramp two more weeks, maybe three of an intense bombing campaign to defang and declaw what's remaining. And he said there's not much remaining, but what's remaining of the conventional military forces and the industrial base, the military industrial base of the of the Iranians. He did at the end say, hey, look, we're looking for a deal. We didn't want regime change. I didn't start with regime change, but we got regime change. I'm dealing or we are dealing with with more logical people and we want to get an arrangement. But if we don't get an arrangement or some sort of ceasefire or at least some sort of agreement, we're prepared to amp this up to as a threat, amp this up and take out their energy infrastructure and their oil producing and distribution capacity. Your thoughts about the speech, sir. Well, I thought at that point he was going to say we're done. But unfortunately, and he could easily, I mean, he's right. They've degraded everything they need to. There's not much for us to do anymore. Unfortunately, though, the speech didn't end there. He talked about Korea and World War Two being longer than this. And, you know, that gets me a little worried when the president and I think this might be why the oil market started spiking, because it sounds like he wants to, as he said, he wants to get the job done quickly, he said. But two to three weeks isn't very quick. So in my opinion, I think that he is still stuck in an escalation trap. And it looks to me just looking at the fact the Nevada Air National Guard has now deployed in 24 hours ago. You've got more of the 82nd Airborne coming in. You've got these two MEUs there, Marine Expeditionary Units. You've got the French military. There was in their media, there's a general who's saying that he knows he's gotten word. The Americans are planning to do this uranium hunt in the heart of with our ground forces in the heart of Iran. So to me, this looks like when he says two to three more weeks, maybe that's the time frame he's operating off of. But I think he's got one more escalation in him, which is going to be some form of ground incursion, either to pop open the straight or more likely now to do this Tom Clancy run and gun in the desert with uranium hunting going on. So I'm not convinced that this thing is an off ramp yet, unfortunately. And I very badly want to be wrong. Brandon, I thought he's pretty specific about the uranium that they had done it. He had he had eviscerated their capability. And that in fact, I think the signal, at least that signal I took was that there wasn't going to be this hunt as as the Mark Levin's, you know, go get the nuclear pixie dust, go get it and you got to send people in to do it. That in fact, he wasn't doing that. Did you actually take it? Because I know you wouldn't want the ones most concerned about a combat insertion of combat troops, whether in Carg Island, along the coast and some beachhead or in some expedition to go find the uranium dust. Did you actually take that? Did you take that speech as teeing up that possibility? Because I interpreted it as that, particularly not talking about it, that is two or three weeks bombing campaign. If they don't cut a deal, I'm going to really unleash a bombing campaign on their infrastructure, but no combat troops. You took it differently. I am very concerned just looking at the flows of troops into the region, listening to what our allies are saying in their own media. The fact that the Israelis keep clipping these negotiators that Vance is supposed to meet before we can meet with them. To me, it seems like we are in an escalation trap. And so I and frankly, the speech yesterday was very ambiguous. That was the most ambiguous speech. I mean, Trump's very decisive. You know this, he gives these very powerful speeches. He says, we're doing this. But yesterday it was it was almost on the one hand on the other hand type of speech, which is not something I'm used to seeing from him, which indicates to me that, A, he hasn't made up his mind and B, it sounds like the gravitational pull of this conflict is still pulling him toward escalation. Even if he does do an increased bombing campaign where he targets that electrical and energy infrastructure, that's going to have blowback for us because there are capabilities the Iranians still have in the cyber realm. There's possibly a lecture magnetic pulse capabilities the Iranians have that could potentially lead to real damage being done on the home front here. And I think the president wants, should want to avoid that at all costs. So I would advise avoiding those target sets at all possible because that that basically puts your enemy into an impossible position where they won't be able to negotiate. So that's why I say, Steve, I really do think that we're still stuck in an escalation trap and there's not yet been an off ramp. Brandon, hang on for one second. We're going to hold you through a break. Take your phone out. Text Bannon B A N N O N at nine eight, nine eight, nine eight. The ultimate guide for investing gold in precious metals in the age of Trump. From Virgil, talk to Philip Patrick Phillips with us on Saturday morning. Do you owe back taxes or you haven't filed your taxes in years? Now is the time to resolve your tax matters. With the national conversation around abolishing the income tax, the IRS is fighting back improving. It's here to stay by becoming more aggressive than ever before. They're sending out more collection notices, filing more tax liens and collecting billions more in recent years. If you owe the IRS can garnish your wages, levy your bank accounts, seize your retirement and even your home. 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As reported yesterday, some of the tolls that are being charged are being paid in in Chinese currency. US dollars under pressure. We're going to talk tonight. Bloomberg's got a story that I'll dress this evening on the evening show about the 2027 budget. Looks like I think mathematically even a bigger budget deficit. We'll talk all about that. US dollars under pressure. We've done the eighth free installment in the end of the dollar empire. It's about the US dollar. Make sure you go to birchgold.com promo code war room and make sure that you get the make sure that you get the free. It's totally free. First seven editions, first seven installments free. They're now in a bound edition, but you still get them free. Get the eighth edition and we're going to talk with Philip Patrick about that on Saturday, but I want everybody to be up to speed on that. Also, our sponsor, the great team at Patreon Mobile 972 Patriot call right now. Talk to somebody with the East Texas accent. Find out everything the company does to support causes that support your values. Also, it's the best phone service in the world. Go check it out today. Texas based Patriot Mobile. Jenny and Glenn story, just two incredible individuals. 972 Patriot. Go talk to one of the customer service reps today. Do it immediately. Kurt Mills, go and join us in a moment, but I want to go back. I'm going to go back to Wiker and to bowling here because I want to make sure what the speech I gave at CPAC. It's important for this audience to come to their own conclusions and think through this complexity through the fog of war. And what we hope what we hope to do is provide you the information that you can start to think this through, because that's what the president needs for people to have his back as he works through this. You can tell last night he is working through it every second of every day. Brandon Wiker, you bring up a good point about escalation in the escalatory trap, which I want you to define in a moment. But you say that it's quite evident we are still committing assets and significant assets to the region. I don't believe that the Gerald Law Art 4 forward, which is up in a naval base in Croatia, going through some repairs has been ordered home yet. I think they're continuing to be part of this operation and the bush is on its way. So you now have three, at least generally three carrier strike groups associated with this and you've got additional assets, particularly potential ground assets. And the air cover ground assets would need like a 10s pouring into the region. Define for this audience. What do you mean by an escalatory trap? President Trump and Bolin is going to talk about this in a minute, because for a day or two, things were starting to calm down as President Trump was talking about, he's going to make this address, but it was going to be, you know, implied it was going to be an off ramp and talk about an update of when this war is coming to an end. You said, hey, that may be his intent, but the actions right now lead these smart people in the world, particularly the traders in these commodity markets to take different interpretation. Mr. Waker. Yeah, so basically, and I highly recommend your audience, look up Dr. Robert Pape, because he is the godfather of the escalation trap. So I'm just going to kind of parrot what he's been saying here. Basically, it's a feedback loop. It's, you know, you try to make a different course correction. Unfortunately, though, you keep flowing in. You keep doing things that are going to make that course correction impossible. Vietnam is one of the great examples of an escalation trap. We went in, it was supposed to be an air war, remember? Then it became we're going to do defensive ground troop movements. We're going to protect our bases, protect our ships. And then, of course, the enemy gets a vote and the enemy keeps doing things. They're not getting defeated the way they are supposed to. So then you have to then counter punch in a way that you think will then allow for them to be defeated and then you can go home. And in that whole process, basically, you you've now essentially become fully committed, you didn't intend to Lyndon Johnson never intended to get involved in Vietnam to the level that he ended up being involved in. And that's the escalation trap because you can't go down without being defeated. So you're not going to want to surrender. You're not going to want to be seen as having lost. But then you also the only way to go forward then is to go higher on that escalation ladder and the enemy, as long as the enemy keeps meeting you there, which the Iranians are like the North Vietnamese, you're going to be stuck then in this endless loop, this doom loop of, well, let me go up to the next run, let me go up to the next run. Maybe I can I can outmaneuver them at that higher level. And every time the enemy is able to stay with you and able to basically continue fighting back. And that's where we are. That phrase, bomb. Yeah, bomb them into the Stone Age. It was came came for that. That that was a very unfortunate choice of words. Mr. Hague, Seth. Yeah, the. By 6465, said it said a framework that really had the country wrapped around the axle for another 10 years, bowling. Talk to me because for a couple of days, the world's market is saying, OK, I kind of feel in the president was talking this down. He then said he was going to give this speech. People assumed that he's going to do an off ramp. He did say two to three weeks. He talked about the defanging, declawing process. What was it that got? What was it that got people so well worked up? Well, I think it was the whole 48 hours. If you remember, Trump came and he kind of pivoted a little, which I think he pivoted in the right direction, saying, you know what? This isn't really our thing with the Strait of Hormuz. We're not really susceptible too much to the Strait. It should be NATO. It should be Japan. I'm sorry, it should be China, NATO, maybe even India's job to keep the thing open. And then he said, tomorrow night, we're going to do tomorrow night at nine. We're going to do an address surprise address to the nation. And everyone and their brother certainly in the markets thought, well, this is it. This is finally an off ramp and he's going to take it and we can breathe the sigh of relief. Oil is 100 bucks. It should be moving down. It started moving into the upper 90s. And then when the speech came, like I said, it settled at 98 before the speech. When the speech came and people were waiting and it didn't Steve, they were waiting to he finished his last word just hoping beyond hope. There'd be some sort of legit off ramp or timetable. How about just a timetable for an off ramp a few more weeks and we're going to pound the crap out of him in those few weeks. Isn't it maybe great to hear if you're, you know, you want to see Iran obliterated, which I'm on that camp. But in the oil world and certainly at the pump, it's the worst possible thing you could hear. Bombing into stone age indicates more than just the limiting their ability to deliver a nuke. It indicates a whole heck of a lot more. It sounds like a whole lot longer. People are smart. You can't bomb them into the stone age in a couple of weeks. It would take months, maybe years to do that. So I think that the lack of a defined off ramp or a timetable is what really spooked it is right now spooking the oil market badly. Yeah. The president wants the NATO allies to step up. He wants obviously people taking the oil, said, look, Hormuz, cherish it, you know, embrace it, make it yours. At first he said, go in and take the oil. Or the world's markets also telling us that, look, as much as President Trump may want that, that they see the NATO allies and their navies as deadbeats. They know the Indians have nothing and they don't trust the Chinese Communist Party to do anything appropriate or for the benefit of others. Sir. I would say that they're. What? Why would they until they have to Steve? So we're we're doing it in their in their pro as a as a proxy right now. Smartest move was like, you know what? This is you're way more sensitive. Your economies are way more sensitive to the straight of Hormuz than ours is. It's all yours. So why would they? Why would they spend treasure and blood when they don't have to the minute we pull out? I pretty much would bet that that NATO and some of the other countries, maybe India would get that straight opened. Eric, where do we go to keep up with you before the four o'clock show? You'll be at four o'clock. Hopefully we'll do a transition today to the five. Where do people go? So much news going on in oil markets. Steven at Eric bowling across social media that Eric bowling the edge on YouTube. That's a different type of show. No politics, but always, you know, the handoff between four and five is great. And right here, we're breaking some ground. Steve, you look back some of the things that we've been talking about over the past 30 some days have actually come to fruition as we as we go forward. Eric, thank you so much. Brandon Weikert, you've been on fire recently. We're seeing you everywhere. Our audience loves you. Where do people track you? Some of them love me, but they can track me at we the Brandon on Twitter X. NatSatGuy at emerald.tv and NatSatTalk on rumble and get my books anywhere they're sold Amazon or anywhere. There's three of them right there. And the fourth one is a disaster of our own making how the West lost Ukraine. Thank you, sir. And by the way, you've got one of the best books about Iran. It's an amazing book. Go check Brandon Weikert's writing out. Kurt Mills, thank you for joining us. We're going to get Liz Mitchell up in a moment. Kurt, you were unimpressed. We thought that the president laid out why he did this, whether people agree with it or not, what he's accomplished to date, what he feels he needs to accomplish and gave a two or three week off ramp till it's over. Until at the end, he did talk about wanting a deal or negotiating a deal and that if the Iranians didn't get with the program, there would be their potential additional hammer would drop. You were you were unimpressed to take it looking at your Twitter feed by the speech. I thought I thought Kurt Mills would love it because it finally said we're out of here and you know, Brandon Weikert disagrees with me, but I thought he's pretty definitive or it sounded like he had no interest in ground combat troops. Well, what he has interested in what he's doing may be two different things. I have no doubt that President Trump remains very much the same man who is skeptical of the Iraq war, skeptical of escalation and this conflict. But the fact remains that he is surrounded by a set of sycophants and advisors potentially that are steering him in this direction. What I heard from the address last night was a speech that maybe the president shouldn't have given. He indicated that we would be out of there in two to three weeks. And I agree. That's a nice sentiment. But the problem is that a lot of people are having flashbacks in this moment to COVID, which is, you know, the president also said 15 days to slow the spread. And additionally, the president announced and the Secretary of War was licking his chops to announce that we were going to bomb the Iranians back to the Stone Age. So I mean, what is it? And the administration hasn't shown any command of events thus far. If they bomb the Iranians and the Iranians escalate right back and start bombing desalination plants in Saudi, start doing drone strikes and missile strikes on the Gulf and Israel again with real verve, this situation could easily spiral out of control. The president has set a number of things and they are some of them are just self evidently contradictory. And so until we leave, I don't think we're out of it. And additionally, and this will be my counsel to him, he's obviously losing his ability to manipulate the markets. The markets didn't like the speech. And that's going to be a problem for him and a problem for Maga. You said I want to go back to things you talked about. No command of events. This is the heart. Let's get to the heart of it, because in a military conflict, one of the central things is to be able to enforce your will on your opponent. Now, he has taken one of the most powerful militaries in the world and is in the process in just a couple of weeks of defanging and declawing. And he said, look, I'm two or three weeks away from I think two weeks, maybe three weeks from actually accomplishing that and having shattered not just their military, but their industrial base. Give me a minute on this. We're going to go to break a heavy stick around. No control of events. What does that mean, sir? Well, I think it remains imminently unclear how real these negotiations actually are. I mean, the Barack reviewed person at Axios is an interesting player. I sort of enjoy him, but one has to wonder with some of these reports to what degree is the former IDF soldier carrying water for the Israelis? I don't know. I don't think there are serious communications between Tehran and Washington, even if Washington is trying to will it. I don't know if the Iranians will ever enter a room ever again with Jared Kushner or Steve Wittkopf. They seem to only want to deal with Vance to the degree that we can even believe they want to deal with him. And so, you know, that is where we that's where we are on April 2nd. We are at a situation where, yes, tactically, we have bombed the Iranians. Tactically, we have eroded their naval capacity, some of their missile capacity. And you see Rubio try to defend that as the new war objective. But strategically, we have given a new hardline government control of the strait and the president's popularity is flagging. Hang on. Yeah, Kurt. Kurt, hang on for one second. Sure. 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Just straight for it, honest help from fellow patriots. So don't wait. Call 845 war room right now. That's 845 war room. Tell them Bannon sent you. Now, listen, in the first couple of days of the launch of this company with the war in Posse, Posse members saved tens and up to hundreds of thousands, collectively of dollars in these fees. Go check it out today. That's chapter called 845 war room. You'll get your host Stephen K. Bannon. OK, I think the team of Peters is the remanded the appeals court remanded trial court for resensoring. I'm going to find out what all that means momentarily. We're going to get some people up here in the next hour. Kurt Mills. The. You said we don't have command of events. And applied that the initiative has shifted to the Iranians, that they've shifted the which I said, hey, they've shifted the center of gravity of this to the Persian Gulf and the Strait or her moves. I believe that that was although I agree with the present sentiments. NATO's got to step up and others. I think one of the reasons we had the reaction in the oil markets is that the oil markets pretty sophisticated. And they just don't think these guys are up to it. They look at them as a bunch of, you know, as President Trump saying, kind of a disorganized clowns that haven't put any resources into naval assets, which is what you need to control the Strait of Hormuz and air assets. Make the what should people look at if you're if your theory is right, we don't have command of events. What would you see happening over the next couple of days that would put us in a more perilous situation than the president who has now come out addressing the nation, not just doing it at an Oval Office availability or something like that. It's addressed the nation and said, hey, we're there for two or three more weeks. I have this on the on my punch list, militarily to take care of. If they don't come to the table, then, hey, maybe we have to escalate. But I'm going to try to deal with that. What should people look for? Do your theory that maybe the Iranians actually have the initiative here? Well, number one, the Israelis keep trying to assassinate inter-oculars on the Iranian side with the Americans. So the Americans ability, where lack thereof of constraining or, quote, ally, I think is a key facet here. Number number two within that is whether or not the Israelis start some of these more gnarly attacks bombing the oil facilities, which lack in disguise of Iranian cities, that sort of thing. I think there's every indication that they might start doing that. And then additionally, you know, just remembering the macro. Hold on, hang on, hang on. Well, whoa, whoa, whoa, hang on, hang on. Have my understanding, there's direct order that that is not to happen by the commander in chief. And this is why he said, if I can't get a deal, we'll take out the grid and maybe even get to taking out their energy resources, because that that would get you to one hundred and fifty bucks pretty quickly. My understanding, and so do you have information out there is differently that since they did it at Tehran a couple of three Saturdays ago, and then the inflection point of this war was attacking the Qatar's gas field, the joint gas field they managed with the Iranians that the president in no uncertain terms told BB, hey, that's not to happen again. And that is a standing order. You think they you think that America's greatest ally would actually go against a direct command of the commander in chief to take it upon themselves to attack the oil infrastructure and gas infrastructure of the Iranians, sir? Yes, I think they would do it. And I think or another spectacular operation that is spiritually similar. And so I think the reality is that they are trying to eliminate off ramps for the president to take. That is why the assassinated Larry Johnny, who was the most likely interlocutor with the administration to get this war done. And I think Israel is wants this war to continue for the foreseeable future. And they want the Americans to bear the battle. I mean, very tellingly, the Israelis ruled out ground troops of their own for the war, which is I think is a spectacular admission that they are willing to fight this war to the last American. Did you, Brandon, Wiker said that he we only got a couple of minutes. I appreciate your time. I know you got a bounce. Brandon Wiker said he thought the speech teed up the possibility of actual ground troops. I took it the exact opposite, but I'm just one voice in the wilderness here. What did you take it that the president actually implied we could have ground? We have the insertion of ground troops given his speech last night. I think I think that's the most likely escalation at this point. I mean, I don't know what more of the United States could do. You know, I think that they've weighed a number of options, special forces units to go in to take the nuclear material, the seizure of Karg Island. I think if we are going to escalate, that's the kind of the direction we will go in. I think this piece last night was 70 percent a rehash of what Trump has said online and elsewhere and 30 percent tilting towards escalation. I understand he said this could be over in two to three weeks, but until it's over, it's not over. And so you think when he says two or three weeks, I we will have all of our objectives and he went through those objectives again as Ruby has been pitching them. All of those objectives, which can be done essentially by air, you still believe at least open the possibility of ground combat troops. Yeah, I think it's possible to change what the objectives are every day. I mean, that Rubio is hawking this missile line. Apparently, we no longer care about Iranian nuclear material, which was the entire reason for caring about Iran in the first place. Now it's their missiles. I just don't think it's out of the question that they'll shift the narrative again. This war is not going to end, in my view, until the president, until this administration tells Benjamin Nanyahu and Israel in no uncertain terms. No, we're out. And you don't believe that that speech last night was the tee up for that? No, I don't think so. I don't we saw a reiteration of a lot of the propaganda and talking points for the war. We did not see a frustration with Israel. In fact, it was barely. I think Israel was only mentioned once and he did give a shout out to the to the Arabs as being involved in this. And the one thing I would disagree with the president, I don't think they've been engaged at all. In fact, there are Jerusalem Posts reporting counter to the Wall Street Journal that you actually the Wall Street Journal reported that, hey, they were all in militarily to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And now the Jerusalem Posts, I think, is reporting the exact opposite. Anyway, Kurt, thank you so much for joining us. We're going to get you back on. Where do people in the interim? You're you're you're in the lineage of Pat Buchanan. Where is that? Yeah, so www.theamericanconservative.com is the American conservative magazine here in Washington, D.C. You can find my own work at at CURT, M-I-L-L-S on X. Thank you. Thank you, brother. Appreciate you coming on. We will bug you over this. The Easter holiday weekend to come back on. Maybe now my Patriot supply go to preparewithbanon.com. I think it's a good time to talk to the people at my Patriot supply. They are the leaders in the space for everything related to preparation. 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