Iran War Oil Shock, Anthropic Sues, and Market Wipeout Warning

Support for on with Kara Swisher comes from the 2027 Chevy Bolt. Oh, I love the Chevy Bolt. I have mine. How long is 25 minutes? The quick workout or a stop to the grocery store. It's all the amount of time it takes you to charge your Chevy Bolt. As I said, I drive the Chevy Bolt myself. An older version. And now the Bolt is back and better than ever. I may have to trade it in. You can charge from 10% to 80% in just 25 minutes with public DC fast charging, that's about half the length of this very podcast. Explore Chevy's most afford EV@chevy.com Bold actual charge times will vary. See Owner's manual for details and limitations. Let me say again, I love my car. Never had a problem with it. Best car I've ever owned. Buy the Chevy Bolt. Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business takes everything you've got. And a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great at talking to each other. And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services and just to keep the lights on. Enough of that. Now there's Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that actually might help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's O-O-O.com support for this show comes from Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman. Now back on Broadway, in what the Guardian calls this year's stariest revival, Joe Montello directs this strictly limited engagement of the Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning masterpiece. It is a masterpiece declared the greatest American play by Kenneth Tynan. And he is right. And now the New York Times says it brings the whole theater alive. Vogue writes Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalfe are our foremost theater actors. Christopher Abbott and Ben Ahlers represent the thrilling potential of a new generation. CU at the theater now in previews on Broadway at the Winter Garden Theater. It's always late. Literally. I'm like so quantumly more important than he is. It's crazy. Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

0:01

And I'm Scott Galloway.

2:14

Scott, did we have a good time in Minneapolis?

2:15

Oh, that was wonderful. And thank you to the wonderful people of Minneapolis. I thought it was great. The community or, you know, maybe we got a. Not a representative sample. I'd like to think we got a representative. But community seems very unified right now.

2:16

Yeah, absolutely. People drove from North Dakota.

2:29

There was some Duluth, wherever that is, or Iowa. We had a lawyer from Iowa come. Yeah, Judge, by the way, shout out. We know who you are. There's this wonderful woman who's a lawyer in family court and she commutes seven hours a week. And she said that. Excuse me. She said, judge. Yeah. And she said, we're her best friends.

2:33

Yeah. Yeah. It was great. And people were great. The audience was great. Again, we have to thank Tane. Danger raised a whole pilot, which Scott matched, which was very generous of Scott. And it's going to.

2:51

More virtue signaling.

3:00

Yeah, that's okay. It was a nice. This is the Scott I like. This is the direction. This is the direction.

3:01

This is the way.

3:07

This is the way. We had a great time and the audience was great. We had a great show. We talked to Governor Walls, who looks amazing. Very handsome as he's leaving. I think it looks so much better when they leave things. You know what I mean?

3:08

Or they're on ozempic. That's why we're descending into fascism, because Tim Walls should have gone on wegovy nine months earlier. 14 months earlier that's the difference between us and fascism. Okay, GLP1 a decision, folks. If you're considering running for vice president and you're thinking about a GLP1, get on it. The word is now. The word is yesterday.

3:19

Anyway, he looks great. We have no idea if he is. Let's just be saying that. But he did his own.

3:39

Come on.

3:44

Okay, fine.

3:45

The guy who showed up.

3:46

Yes, he was.

3:47

The guy who showed up. Looked like the old Tim Walls could eat him.

3:48

That is true. But let me tell you something. He's running, too. He said. Told me he was running. And it goes along with it. It's a whole lifestyle.

3:52

They're always running. They're always run. Everything. Don't tell him. Physically running.

3:58

Yes, he told me about his running. You know, I started running again. So we had a little chitty chat.

4:02

The idea of you out running. I don't know.

4:06

I don't go outside. I stay inside. I don't. I don't like running outside.

4:08

You do it in the private. You do it on a treadmill.

4:12

Yeah, I love it. I use my little time for myself. It's my little carrot time. I love it. I do it three or four times a week. It's really. And actually, now I'm. Hotels. They have to have a nice treadmill. That's it. That's the Way it goes. That's why I'm abandoning your apartment. Anyway, are you doing okay? You're in New York. We're headed to south by Southwest. Right. We got a lot going on. We got a live pivot. I've got a bunch of things. Prof. G has a bunch of things. I'm trying to think what else we're doing. Oh, we're launching. My show's trailer goes up today for Kara Swisher wants to live here.

4:13

Oh, you have a show. It's funny, you haven't talked much about that. You haven't mentioned it.

4:41

Yeah, yeah. It's the secret show. It's not so secret. Anyway, Scott is in it, and we're going to be debuting the part with Scott in at south by Southwest, where we go to a sound bath, essentially. But it comes out today, the trailer, so I'm very excited. And we're going to show it off

4:45

with guest appearance from David Ellison, the new king of Hollywood.

5:00

What if he came up to us? What do we say?

5:05

We'd say hi. How are we? Kiss his ass. He's very powerful.

5:07

No, we don't kiss his ass. He's very aware. We're very critical of him, you know, but whatever, I don't care. I don't care. It doesn't matter to me anyway. We'll be nice to him.

5:10

I'll see him on Sunday because I'm going to that big fancy party, which.

5:18

Oh, yes, you are. Oh. Go up to him, and I dare you to go up to him and give, like, a full, like, penis on penis hug. Could you do that?

5:21

So I'm not a hugger. I don't know if you've noticed that.

5:30

Yeah, I've noticed that. I tried.

5:33

I'm not a hugger.

5:34

You're like Alex, the way Alex hugs sideway hug. All right, I dare you to do something really funny.

5:35

Unless I'm giving you $300 and you're doing more than hugging, do not touch me. Do not touch me.

5:42

Anyway, you're gonna have a good time at that.

5:47

That's a lie. It's a lot more than $100. $300. I'm excited. It's gonna be great.

5:48

Talarico. Maybe we'll run into him.

5:53

So I don't know if you heard, I'm pulling a total caramu. I'm interviewing him on stage with Jess Tarlov at Raging Moderates.

5:56

Oh, my God, that's great. Oh, I'm gonna come watch that. That's great. I'm so excited. Yes. I have the Cast of Audacity, which is a new, very hysterical Silicon Valley thing in the style of Silicon Valley.

6:03

Do you have any questions or Tallarika? For me, my first question would be, if Mary gave birth to Jesus and Jesus is the Lamb of God, then did Mary have a little lamb? Little dad joke. I can't go dirty with Representative Talarico.

6:15

I like that one. That's good. That's a good one. He'll laugh.

6:31

He'll go.

6:34

He's kind of a young fogey in my estimation. He feels like older, even though he looks like he's 12. That kind of thing.

6:37

I think people at home need to take a shot every time he says the billionaire class.

6:44

Yes. Okay. You should do that.

6:48

One of my definite questions, I don't know if I want to. Well, I'm going to be like, I'm going to start off with, he and I have something in common, and that is we both follow hot women on Instagram. His thoughts.

6:50

Okay. All right, we're moving on. Sorry, James. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today. I'm going to dig in first. The war in Iran is sending oil prices on a wild ride this week and creating what the International Energy Agency says is, quote, the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Okay, that's kind of something. As of this recording, oil is still very high, slowly coming down from over $100 a barrel after ships were attacked in the Persian Gulf. There's also attacks still going on. Gas prices continue to climb as well. And just remember, it's not just gas prices. Every price goes up when gas goes up. The IEAS, 32 member countries are releasing a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to counter the chaos. Which means we aren't gonna feel this yet. I interviewed Senator Warner yesterday and he was noting that Trump has tried to calm markets. He keeps trying to. To do this, to bring these oil prices down by words saying the war is, quote, very complete, only to later announce we haven't won enough. Oil prices also plunged after Energy Secretary Chris Wright incorrectly posted that US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. So that was a problem. The post was deleted. Within minutes was enough to move markets and wipe out million dollar trades. This is such a taco. This is the greatest taco of all, I think. And even if the war in Iran ends soon, returning the Strait of Hormuz to typical traffic could take one to three months. We're gonna see reverberations of this ridiculous situation. The Way he's handling it and the way he's not, it seems all over the place. And also, to add to the kind of mess there, the initial findings of a military investigation say that US Was responsible for that deadly Tomahawk missile strike on the Iranian elementary school. It's actually causing a lot of strife within maga, by the way, and everywhere else. Normal people and maga. The report notes officers likely used outdated information to label the school as a military target. Trump has tried to put the blame on Iran earlier this week, claiming they also have the Tomahawks, which everyone thought was ridiculous. And when asked about the military report on Wednesday, Trump said he knew nothing about it. We'll get to the photography scandal at the Pentagon, but talk a little bit about what's going on with oil prices and this school, which is just. I feel like we should take responsibility when we make an error, such a terrible error. But go ahead.

6:59

I'll go in reverse order. When you're handling a crisis, and this is a crisis, the death of civilians, especially children, is obviously pretty ugly. You acknowledge the issue, you take responsibility and you try and overcorrect. And they've done nothing of the sort. And there is in a war, and this is a war. This isn't military action. This is a war. There's an excursion.

9:15

The word he's using now, it's an excursion, whatever that means.

9:35

Excursion.

9:38

I went on a bike excursion.

9:39

Like a field trip.

9:41

Exactly. My daughter went on an excursion.

9:42

Except he didn't get Congress's approval the day before that he could go on the excursion. Look, this is, you know, it's a tragedy. They just made a bad situation worse. First off, they look incompetent by saying that it might have been a Tomahawk from Iran. Iran doesn't have Tomahawks. So it looks like, okay, I'm not willing to own up to this. I mean, there's not a good answer, but there's a reasonable answer here, and that is, we're sorry. Yeah, we decided to go on, you know, with military action. This is a group of people who killed 30,000 of its own people. War is going to have collateral damage. We screwed up. We take responsibility. These are the following steps we're putting in place to make sure it doesn't happen again and take responsibility for it. And it would have been not over, but it would have been acceptable. Instead, it's like, no, it was Iran's fault. It just doesn't or, I didn't know.

9:44

Peg says was the same way and was Angry when people asked about it, which is everything wrong in the response and everything wrong in the mistake. But you're right. Absolutely.

10:38

Yeah. And the. The real. I mean, we're just. We're just starting to see. So I was speaking to a kid and I said, what, you know, where do you want to be in five years? I always ask young men that, where do you want to be in five years? And this kid said, I'd really love to have my own auto repair shop focusing on EVs. I said, okay, well, then let's reverse engineer from those things. Like, what kind of skills do you need to acquire? What kind of job certification, what kind of capital or money would you, to start something like this, have a business plan? What kind of real estate would you need? What would be, you know, let's reverse engineer everything. You need basics. Right. Let's reverse everything. Engineer everything to today around what you would need to be an owner of an EV repair shop. And he lives on the outskirts of Los Angeles. Just the loveliest young kid. Anyways, we can't even reverse engineer the tactics because I don't think anyone is really clear yet on what the end game is, what the end goal is. And that is, if they had said, all right, we're going to diminish their launch capability from missiles. Makes all the sense in the world. And it's more about the launchers and the missiles because you can bury the missiles on their.

10:48

These are ballistic missiles for people who don't know.

12:01

We are going to make sure that the Straits of Hormuz are more secure than they were previous to this. And we're going to work with our Gulf allies to create a series of minesweepers and enforce the border. I mean, and we're going to take out the Navy and we're going to take out the munitions infrastructure, builds this stuff. These are the three boxes we need to check.

12:04

Can I interject, Since I just interviewed Warner about this, one of the things that they've talked about is going in and getting the enriched uranium. But that would actually be. Would take, as they say, boots on the ground, and it would be not viable. Not viable, not feasible, unless we want a lot of Americans to die.

12:24

Yeah. As is, quite frankly, as is regime change.

12:39

I mean, this regime is sticking pretty strongly. They're not collapsing.

12:42

Yeah, yeah. No, I think Kalshee had the likelihood of regime change at like 10% by the end of March or something like that right now, anyways. But instead we don't. It's like, well, okay, in war, you Always have to have plans A prime and plan B because the enemy gets a say in this. But the problem is no one can identify plan A.

12:47

No, they ate it. They ate it. The dog ate my homework. Can I ask you about the oil prices? Because I think that's something that's gonna people don't recognize. And the idea of trying to calm the market by releasing incorrect information, letting it go whipsaw all over the place. And this release of these 400 million barrels is going to have repercussions later because that's when the prices will go up, these strategic reserves. And they're trying to do everything possible to pretend we're not going to have a real crisis between the Strait of Hormuz and this release. And so it has the second order problems now Wall Street's sort of sloughing it off a little bit, but these are prices that are going to reverberate through the system, as you have noted.

13:09

Oh, so look, the biggest loser here is obviously the people of Iran who are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Right. There is no bigger loser than the families who lose loved ones. I also think the reputation of the US and what was an opportunity to create much stronger alliances with moderate nations in the Gulf. So big losers, but what people aren't talking about. The countries that import more than 50% of their oil. Japan, South Korea, India and most of Europe have seen their markets hammered, absolutely hammered. Poor countries with no foreign exchange reserves and dollar denominated debt can't, you know, could be thrust into the IMF or effectively what is bankruptcy. Airlines and hospitality companies all over the world shipping the bunker.

13:52

Can I point out Warner said he's been meeting with airline executives and they said they're fine for now, but it's going to be $25 million a day extra.

14:45

I mean, nations who import their oil especially who get most of it through the straits of hormones, their economy, basically their economies are like for the year at a minimum. So this is having, you know, we have obviously the biggest losers by body count or Iran, but by economic collapse. Middle Eastern oil importers, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and fragile emerging markets Pakistan.

14:52

Guess who's doing great? Russia. Yeah, this gives him the. He was really on the ropes around the million people who've died and also the price of oil. And now he has more money to spend while we ignored help from the Ukrainians on drones. And one of the things Warner was pointing out was that fine, we could take out their battleships, but their real problem is all those small fast boats and Their drones, they can just do all manner of damage to us with these small $50,000 drones and we use a million dollar rocket to take it out. I mean this is the problem is they have an ability to do this and they've been, they're, you know, the way Warner described it, this country is hard, is hard and forced, like hard, like hardwired. This is not Venezuela, this is Trump. Trump lives like he's in some movie where you just do three bombs and that's the end of it. But this is a hardwired 150,000 people in this ruling group in Iran and they're not giving up all this money and all this power for I don't know, it's a really difficult situation which they didn't think out.

15:17

But just thinking about the market, the winners and losers, the hardest at stock markets are Middle Eastern markets who have the infrastructure rebuild and then take advantage of of elevated oil prices. Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, their stock market's greater. There's a capital flight to safety. I mean the ironic thing here is that over the long term our reputation is in tatters. We're probably the least damaged because we're energy independent. We produce more energy than we consume. We have two oceans protecting us, friendly Canada to the north, harmless Mexico to the south. We still have capital inflows. In a weird, I mean it's just terrible to say, but in a weird way our markets are probably least damaged by this.

16:24

Except the cost. There'll be costs for airlines, there'll be costs for truckers, there's going to be costs for home heating. Thank goodness it's not winter, right?

17:05

The dollar's already strengthened. I mean it's ironic, but when you diminish the entire world, there's a flight to safety. And flights to safety usually benefit the US Emerging markets are going to get the shit kicked out of them. India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, capital flowing out to the US dollar for safe havens. The US will likely be down 8 to 10% on a tariff ruling or was down, but it could be down another 10 to 15% and that'll be. I'll talk more about that on our prediction. But you're going to have a pretty big peak to trough. But some of that might just be the air coming out of the bubble. But to your point, the least damaged in the Middle east or Saudi Arabia and the uae. But the big winner here, as you said, is Russia. The oil price spike benefits them. The US is distracted by Iran. So more Ukraine lever and oddly the ruble strengthens so war is literally the agent of unintended consequences. And this is so frustrating because if this had been more like Fordeau and less like Iraq and they'd set out a series of achievable objectives, this could have been a win. It could have been the Gulf states coming together. And if they had said, look to a couple European nations and to the Gulf states, a stable Middle east benefits all of us. Let's all have a series of objectives and we're going to pay and execute against most of this. We could have strengthened our alliances.

17:13

We've been dragged around by Israel here in a lot of ways. It looks like it. Let me see.

18:36

I, I disagree. I think we're very tightly coordinated with Israel right now.

18:39

I talked to Warren, who was in the Gang of Eight. I'm going to go with him over you. I'm sorry to say that. But, you know, I think it was that they were.

18:42

The senator over Sky.

18:48

Yes. I think they were going to attack and we decided to be the senior partner. Like that's. Rather than create something else because.

18:49

Well, you mean that Iran was going to attack Israel? Israel's attack.

18:55

No, no, no. Israel was going to attack Iran. I mean, that's the implication he had.

18:57

And Senator Warner feels like have the power to say stop.

19:02

Well, he doesn't know why we didn't. That was one of his questions. He's surprised. He seemed more worried. He's usually not a worry Ward, but he seems worried about two things. How this was conducted, obviously, and what the real implications are, especially around drones and small boats that could do enormous damage to our battleships and everything else, and also election security. But one of the weirder parts is how the administration has behaved. Donald Trump was dancing last night or golfing and stuff like this. The visuals aren't for very good. The Defense Department has now barred press photographers from Iran briefings after publishing photos that Hegg says staff found, quote, unflattering. According to the Washington Post, Hegg says vanity aside, it just. They just look like, like he looks like a fatuous popinjay at all times. But in this case, the lack of seriousness about something that's very serious seems problematic. And it's also causing problems within their own group, Group of Mega. There's a real shift. There's a real like sort of Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, MTG on one side and then, you know, Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro, all this is a real ugliness. I went over, I wandered over to Twitter, which I shouldn't have done, and the nastiness between them is really quite something. It's really quite something to watch.

19:05

Like, imagery is so incredibly powerful. They're basically, I think one photograph didn't bring an end to the Vietnam War, but expedited it. And it's that incredibly dramatic photo of the young girl running from an APOM bombing. And with the Iraq war, George Bush and the Pentagon, they banned photos of service member coffins because he realized war's so ugly that it will lose support. And the notion that these guys can't handle the images of Pete Hegseth in an unflattering. I mean, it shows you're allocating your capital in the wrong places. That's not what you should be thinking about or worried about. And if you think you can control the imagery of Pete Hexath, well, okay, just wait till you see the images that are going to come out of Iran. And you can already see that the IRGC is quite frankly organizing again and going on an information campaign.

20:25

They are and they've been very good. Iran in general has been one of the stronger players in those spaces in terms of propaganda and everything else. And so.

21:26

Well, when you say good, you mean effective. Effective. They lie like there's no law.

21:35

Yes, of course, but hello, lots of people do, lots of governments do.

21:38

And it's not a critical thing. I think Iran takes it to a new level.

21:42

They do, but when I say good is they're good at it. They're all. Throughout all the various social networks. They're very. They did one the other other day, which I was sort of fascinated by, where they put up your president as a pedophile, which was interesting. They just, they've been at it for a long, long time and they have used. Often when there's stuff that pops up online, it's either Russia or Iran, China to an extent too. But really Iran has used social media as one of the smaller. I mean it is a smaller country than Russia, less powerful and it has used social media to its advantage in ways that are, are really, of course heinous because it's conspiracy theories and you always find them somewhere in. They're at the top. Everyone I ever interview in cybersecurity are the top in cybersecurity issues, in propaganda, in conspiracy theories. And they have a very well oiled machine throughout the world doing this kind of stuff.

21:46

Well, when the actual audit of social media is done, I think we're going to find that somewhere between 10 and 40% of comments and posts on geopolitical accounts or accounts of influencers is going to have originated from either the ccp, the GRU, or the rogc.

22:46

Yep, absolutely.

23:04

And this is what you do. You see a piece of content and then you look at the comments to evaluate and shape your own view of that content. And when gamed. Yeah. And it has a huge impact. You don't even recognize how much impact it has on your views of stuff. Because if someone says, as oh, the US will be able to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz. I'm just using an example. And then there's just a ton of stuff saying that'll never happen. Oil prices are going to be at 200. All right, where's that comment coming from? And unfortunately, although they could put in places to verify accounts and get rid of fake accounts and fake comments. Just go on these really sensitive pages or sensitive opinions and click on who made the comments. And it's someone with three followers. Okay, that's not a person. And the question is why would someone be making this comment? Or what entity would have an interest in these comments?

23:05

We're going to talk about that and let it because there's a major report from the center for Countering Digital Hate that's really interesting around chatbots. This story is going to continue in our reverberations. Obviously we're going to go on a quick break and when we come back, Anthropic sues the Pentagon and Microsoft comes to Anthropic's defense. Heads support for this show comes from Quint. If you've ever peered into your wardrobe and felt paralyzed by indecision, then it might be time to build a collection of pieces you don't have to think too hard about. Quince offers elevated fabrics, thoughtful design and pricing that actually make sense. Quince makes high quality wardrobe staples using premium fabrics like 100% European linen, 100% silk silk and organic cotton poplin. Their lightweight cotton cashmere sweaters are perfect for the changing seasons and they work directly with top factories, cutting out the cost of a middleman. So you're not paying a brand markup, just quality clothing. I love quints. I have to say. I use it all the time. I usually use sort of sports athleisure clothes there, which I find incredibly comfortable, including their athletic bras and things like that. But I just got a cardigan and I'm not a cardigan gal. But it's really, really comfortable. It's really attractive and it's very soft and I love it. They also have lots of great seasonal colors and prints for spring that will make getting dressed a breeze right now. Go to quince.com pivot for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it. And you will now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last. Go to Q-U-I-N-C-E.com pivot for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com pivot

24:05

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25:46

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27:00

My prediction is no. And that is Dario Amodi has given license and permission to CEOs to say no. And in the next 30 days, you are going to see a raft of CEOs find their testicles and start saying no to this administration.

29:11

So you were right, Scott. So let's talk about that. Them saying no. And it's not just Microsoft. 37 AI researchers at OpenAI and Google, not the companies themselves, also filed a brief supporting Anthropic. I'm going to just very quickly comment. What the government's doing here is really unprecedented. It's a disagreement with a company, and instead of just disagreeing and moving on, they are attacking them in the most ridiculous ways, trying to make an example of Anthropic and really hurt their business. And for you to, I need you all to understand Emile Michael's role here because these people all have other interests and agendas that have to do with their previous life in Silicon Valley and their future life in Silicon Valley. And Emil Michaels always, as I said, been a toting bully to powerful men. And this is what he's doing here. And he is not a player that is in any way neutral. He's not doing things for you and I in this government. He's doing things in his own self interest would be my guess. And so the attacks on Anthropic, right behind him is all manner of competitors at Anthropic that are using the federal government to hurt a company that decided not to want to do something. And I'm glad Microsoft stood up for them.

29:29

I think this is the biggest story in tech. And so just a quick recap. Anthropic had basically two ass of the Pentagon and both pretty narrow. They didn't want Claude to be used for fully autonomous weapons, meaning AI, not humans, making final lethal targeting decisions, which seems reasonable. And the second one was no use of cloud for mass domestic surveillance of Americans. And the Pentagon responded that it does not intend to use Claude for those purposes, but refused to contractually commit to that, arguing that it can't lead tactical operations by exception and that legality is the Pentagon's responsibility. And then on the about two and a half weeks ago, Trump posted on Truth Social directing every federal agency, directing every federal agency to immediately seize all use of Anthropic's technology. And then Hegseth designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk. Okay, that's a label which has been reserved for foreign adversaries.

30:42

Yeah, I just said.

31:46

And companies linked to the Chinese and Russian government. Well, I'm saying it again, Kayla.

31:47

All right, okay, fine.

31:51

The supply chain risk status. First off, this isn't just the government saying, okay, you don't want to work with us, we don't want to work with you. If they label them as a supply chain risk, then already 100 plus enterprise companies have reached out to Anthropic and said, we may not be able to use you. A financial services company posits negotiations regarding a $50 million contract. A pharmaceutical firm, financial technology company. I mean, they can't. This really is an existent. When you're labeled sort of an enemy of state, this is equivalent of like you're a corporate enemy of state or threat. I say threat. Anthropic has now filed a lawsuit against the Pentagon saying that Congress's procurement laws don't authorize blacklisting a US Company over protected speech. That's what this is. They get to work with or not work with who they. And the supply chain designation, it's just not legal and it sets a dangerous precedent for any American company.

31:54

They will lose.

32:55

Most people think the government will lose,

32:57

but it will have an effect. Yes, yes, the government loses, but it'll still have the effect. This is a Trump thing, he creates a real problem, whether it's anthropic and

32:59

companies don't work with them until they

33:07

figure it out and then it causes damage just like they've done at, you know, when they fire all of Voice of America. Now they've lost in court and Carrie Lake is an idiot, but it's already caused damage and caused damage to it. And that's the goal is they're going to push it legally as far as they can and then they'll be stopped. But by the time they're stopped, Anthropic is badly affected. And if you all don't think this is a Silicon Valley rumble happening here, it's all in the self interest of private companies who have an interest in slowing Anthropic down. And if you look at the links between Emile Michael and the rest of these, these, these clients.

33:08

So they have financial interests and competitors.

33:46

Just this. Yes, they do. And so this is a way that Silicon Valley, the penny. Silicon Valley used to ignore government for the most part and then the penny dropped. That they're easy to pay for and that they can do their competition with each other in the federal government by pretending they're working for us as people or getting spots, putting their, putting their people in the various spots. Right. That will cause it. This is a Silicon Valley corporate beef happening. That is what's occurring here.

33:48

The one that's been most outspoken, I'm trying to connect his financial interests, which I'm sure is driving his rhetoric is David Sachs.

34:16

David Sachs, Marc Andreessen. Please understand there are shadow people behind these actions that you need to pay attention to. And Trump is sort of a useful idiot. I'm sure they make fun of Trump behind his back. But it's all in their economic self interest to hurt this company and they couldn't hurt them by being better. So this is how they're doing it, this is what they're doing.

34:22

But it comes down. This is the fulcrum that determines if companies continue to show some backbone. And by the way, good for Satya Nadella, showing some backbone here at again risk. So Kalsha is saying that anthropics. The likelihood anthropic wins the case is 72%. In the meantime, companies will say, hey, that site license we were about to sign with the anthropic, we're just going to wait. We're apply apologize. This is terrible.

34:47

We love you, we think you're technology,

35:17

you're great, but we can't sign this contract right now. To your point, Microsoft and a group of 22 retired senior military officers have filed amicus briefs in support of Anthropic and its lawsuit. But what's interesting is that consumers are speaking, the enterprise is running, but consumers are running towards Anthropic. Downloads of the cloud app spiked more than 75% after Trump prompted federal agencies to stop using Anthropic. And on the flip side, uninstalls of ChatGPT mobile apps spiked roughly 300% the day after Trump's proclamation. So the question is, who wins? In the mind of Anthropic's board here, the fear and the stasis that has been created in the enterprise market or consumers running towards a company they think is finally showing some backbone.

35:18

I think it's damaging. I think this is such a Trump

36:16

way to do this is create philanthropic's more enterprise unfortunately.

36:19

I know, create chaos and damage and it's legal. But do the punch. Even if it's like I'm not a boxer. But if you do like a kidney punch, you hurt the person and then you're like oh, did I do that? I didn't know I did that. And you use your minions and I cannot underscore again what a minion Emile Michael is to do your dirty work and pretend you're working for the government. The whole thing is such a. This is such a fixed fight. I can't even. You need to. And I think reporters should really spend. A lot of people don't know these characters. Again, this was an ex Uber executive. He's been involved in a lot of stuff in Silicon Valley, but he had to leave Uber under. Please go watch. Look at our reporting on him. Many years ago he had to leave Uber under very difficult circumstances around the rape of a woman in India in an Uber. But just Google them reporters who are covering this and stop acting like Emile Michael is this clean character. In any case, I'm sure he'll come after me, but it's true, so I'll win on that regard. Anyway, we're going to move on. Another thing that again, Silicon Valley just can't stop stealing essentially Grammarly launched an expert review AI feature that gives editing suggestions. Supposedly inspired by well known writers and journalists, Casey Newton discovered the tool was attributing advice to him and others. Even though they never agreed to participate, the feature even generated advice under the name of a certain tech journalist, Kara Swisher. They've stopped that now. They've gotten. They pulled back on it apparently. But what an incredible bunch of information and identity thieves. I don't Know what to say. Anytime these people can steal, they steal. They're such shoplifters. I don't your thoughts?

36:23

Well, it goes back to this mindset and I thought one of the. The I think there's licking glasses into people's souls, how they treat their pets, how they treat service staff is sort of a, you know, when is their guard down? When there are certain tells. Right. And one of the tells that was really frightening. When Sam Altman was asked about the energy consumption of AI, he said what people don't take into account is the amount of energy it takes and the amount of investment and resources it takes to get a human to a point where it can make logical decisions and engage in critical thinking.

38:13

Thinking.

38:46

He said, if you look at how much energy and input and resources it takes to raise a child such that it can get to a point where it can make decisions, AI is better. I found that so nihilistic and so inhuman because what Silicon Valley or at least some of the individuals we talk a lot about don't realize is it we try and get ROI economically such that we can make low ROI investments in relationships and people we love. I am not getting an ROI back from my children on any sort of economic level.

38:47

Well, you use a lot of energy. I'm wondering if we should use as much energy for you as we do, but go ahead.

39:19

Well, but the whole point, the whole shooting match of an economy and relationships and satisfaction and purpose and some sort of spiritual sense of calm and like your life mattered, is that you do engage in productive economic or domestic labor such that you can can invest that in other people. And you may or may not get a return. But the point is, the return you get is you're so invested in something that your life has meaning. The whole point is that you create value such that you can invest that value in relationships. And for most people, the most rewarding place of investment, where, quite frankly, they don't get anything resembling an economic roi, is in children. And to look at it on that level, it's like, okay, you don't understand what it is to be a mammal or a human. And also the notion that you can spend 50 years of your life professionally working your ass off, staying late, starting in the mailroom at the Washington Post as you did, such that you have a voice, a reputation, a twist of phrase, an ability to string words together that compels people to action or provides insights site and then they can come in and just adopt that 50 years or piggyback on it.

39:24

That piggyback Steal it really is like

40:42

if I type in give me five jokes on this or give me a view on the oil price and I put in my voice, it does a really good job because what it's doing is stealing from everything I have ever written, said or done that is correct. And so, so the music industry did this correctly. It said okay, if we're KROQ, which is awesome, the best radio station of the 90s in Los Angeles and they play a bunch of English beat or Tom Petty or Lloyd Cole and the Commotions or REM they track how much they're playing and then they send them a royalty. And what these guys want to do is they want to leverage your years, decades of discipline, schooling, certification, risk taking time away from your family, but they don't want to pay for it. And they see everything. I mean that's I think a felony. But what is double homicide from a mentality standpoint is that these people really look at relationships and humans on an economic basis. When I saw that I thought, I thought this guy is not, he just had a kid. Well, I'm not going to speak to his children. But what he's going to find out and this is what I tell other dads.

40:46

It was a dark comment. It was a dark.

42:03

I'm like don't make the mistake I made and think that right away your kid's going to be super into the shit you're into and you're going to get all these Hallmark moments despite what insurance commercials would tell you. You're going to have to invest more in this child in every way. And that's the point because at some point what you realize is that over investment in other people gives you purpose and value.

42:05

Let me just say they think everything is for the taking and for them this is just another example. What was happening at the Defense Department. Oh we have it up on anthropic. Oh anything they can take, they take. And they just continue to prove, you know, they keep not meeting my low expectations for them already. And this is kind of an interesting thing. Researchers from the center for Countering Digital Hate which has been attacked and its founder been attacked legally by Elon Musk and the federal government now in his at his behest, they're keeping going though they don't care. Tested 10 major AI chatbots and found out 8 out of 10 were willing to help plan a violent attacks like school shootings, bombings or assassinations. Researchers posed as a 13 year old boys as 13 year old boys showing how easily miners could get guidance on Weapons, locations and strategies. Only Anthropic's Claude and Snapchat's My AI consistently refused to assist in planning attacks and only Claude attempted to dissuade the users. Deep seek wished the user happy and safe shooting. And on that note, a lot of you have been writing in about a story in Canada. Earlier this year, an 18 year old dumb and opened fire at a school in Tumblr Ridge, British Columbia, killing eight people. Let's listen to a clip from a listener. I am calling because it seems to be that there is a connection now between the shooter and ChatGPT. The shooter was flagged by ChatGPT several months ago regarding some of the of their behavior online. ChatGPT didn't report it, which is one of the reasons why I am leaving this message to see what your thoughts are on that. OpenAI is now being sued by the parent of the child who was injured in the shooting. As you know, I've been at this for years, especially around kids, but it's jumped into people. The most recent, one of the most recent shootings, it was, it was this suicide was like an adult, was, was changed by these chatbots. I cannot, let's stop calling them chatbots. What an adorable word for synthetic beings. Who don't, who don't are not bound by legal. Like if you're a lawyer and you did this, you go to jail. If you're an analyst, if you're a, you know, a psychologist and you did this, you'd go to jail. If you were a person and you did this, you would go to jail. Like all of the people go to jail, they're willing to assist in violent attacks and they're not doing anything to rein it in. And it's not just kids, it's everything. And again, the only one that is doing the right thing is Claude. And this is Anthropic and this is the company. I'm not doing an ad for Claude here, but they have at least some and I think they should be regulated too. But I can't tell you how incandescent I am about the way these people try to take every, every bit for themselves and they do not care the damage they are creating. And I'm going to keep talking about this until Congress steps in and does something about it. And you don't work for those rich people, you do not work for them. And I'm with Jim Talarico enough with these people. So go ahead.

42:26

I think it's important to draw a distinction between potentially creating some sort of psychosis that leads to self harm or harm against others through overuse use of AI or any other digital platform. I think that's a separate study that needs to be done and without the interference of the massive money and lies and owned bot research that these firms will do. I think this is different. I think this is whether the federal government needs to put in place laws and incentives such that if a private organization or corporation receives information that this person might be on the verge of committing an act of violence, if they have a responsibility to report it to the authorities immediately. And I think they do. I'm not a privacy person. I'm not suggesting we go to minority report where we arrest them before they've committed the crime. But at my school or so my school in Florida, where my kids went at another school and we all shared information when I was involved with the school about these very difficult situations, a kid was drawing very disturbing images of gun violence. And so the school felt like it had an obligation to report it. And then the FBI went to the house and the FBI said are there any guns in the house? And I think that was the right thing to do.

45:37

You're right. That seems.

47:03

If you notice there was a video that went viral on snap. A teacher put out a SNAP app saying that she wanted to kill these kids. And it immediately the cops showed up and said, did you say this? Are you having any sort of mental issue right now? You need to go home and we need to understand what is going on with you. And if you have access to guns before we let you back into a school. And the same is true here, that if you are going to monetize this type of information and you understand it so you can interpret it so well that you can create a prompt that keeps them on another second, another minute or serves them the exactly right auto insurance ad, then exchange for that economic benefit and what is clearly demonstrated ability to know what's going on with that person. If you see any evidence that that person might be capable of creating this type of crime, you have an obligation. Bartenders. The bartender, if a bartender continues to serve people alcohol, observing that that person is really drunk, and then that person gets in a car and kills someone, the bar is liable.

47:05

A very good analogy.

48:21

So if they have such incredible targeting, such unbelievable information, they can clearly tell that, okay, this individual is getting maps and identification and information is basically digitally casing.

48:22

It's worrisome. We should investigate is what you're saying a school.

48:35

Then immediate a message goes out to the local authorities saying here is exactly what this person said, we have a judge involved. You get the order, and boom, they're in the house asking this person questions. I'm not saying they arrest them. They haven't done anything yet.

48:39

They would argue this is surveillance, but of course they don't mind selling surveillance.

48:55

They're surveilling it.

48:59

They're super. I know, I know. That's the thing is, you know, I'm just saying a human being in this situation would be arrested or locked. Bible. Right. These people are giving. I agree. You should separate the two. But they're related, Scott. It's the same mentality of, let us extract all the good stuff, let us not protect anybody, and we are not liable for what we're doing. You know, Marc Benioff once called them cigarette companies. It's worse. It's worse than a cigarette company. They were just selling cigarettes and using Joe Camel. That sucks. But this is something. Something demented. Like, I think they've. They've. They. They're demented. I. I don't. That they think this is okay and that they don't say to themselves, should we really? Is this the way we want to make our money? We want to make our money by poisoning children's minds? We want to make our money by letting people who are mentally disabled become more so and then give.

49:00

But again, that's a different issue.

49:56

I agree. But they're giving people plans. And if you're gonna give people plans on how to shoot a school, you have a responsibility to say, you might wanna check this out. Police.

49:58

I get. But for the purposes of remedies, I think you need to separate the 2. Character AI may, in fact be leading people into a state of psychosis where they believe the right thing to do is to find their stepfather's gun and kill themselves. Cause they're gonna get to hang out with Daenerys and in the afterlife. That is shifting their psychological state. My understanding of this, the shooter here was that she was already in an awful psychological state and was using ChatGPT as a tool to execute violence. Both require some sort of regulation, responsibility and action different.

50:07

You're right. Yeah.

50:46

You've done a lot of good work interviewing parents around the rabbit hole. And psychosis that the character AIs can lead people to, which, by the way, has an average usage time of 75 minutes versus AI at like 13 or 15 at the same time. If these organizations can very easily use the same technology to not only alert them at the right moment to serve them an ad for a dating app or For a cryptocurrency trading platform to say, this person is clearly going through something and potentially a threat to the community and others. They have a responsibility to immediately notify the authorities.

50:47

All right, we're going to finish this up. But they don't have a community responsibility. One of the things that always.

51:23

When you say they don't have a

51:28

community, they don't feel like they like.

51:28

No, I'm saying they should. I think we're in agreement here.

51:30

I think they never did, is the point I was gonna make. When they were building their headquarters, I remember Twitter building its headquarters. And they had the most beautiful cafeteria. I don't know if you've ever been there, but it was gorgeous.

51:33

I've never been invited to Twitter's cafeteria.

51:44

This was pre. Elon. And I was thinking pre Lawn. Pre Lawn. I was thinking, they don't care about all the businesses around. You know what I mean? Like, they kept the people captive in this beautiful. Everything is here. Don't go. Go anywhere. And that. They don't give a fuck about San Francisco. It's just like they just want to be here. But they didn't care about the surrounding delis. They didn't care about people going out in the street and creating a street life. They didn't back the. You know, they don't have to back the opera, but they didn't back any civic organizations ever. And I was always like, huh, what a group of people. They don't really care about anything but themselves. Like, I remember being struck by that cafeteria and thinking they really could give a fuck. And it was the same. It's the same idea. They could give a fuck about our government. They could give a fuck about all these things, except for what's in their interests. And so I could go. I'm moving into. Speaking of psychosis, I'm moving into one.

51:46

It comes down to one sort of basic algorithm, and that is all corporate. You could argue that big tech is worse than most, but generally speaking, it's safe to assume that all corporations care about is shareholder value and earnings. Earnings and getting to those earnings within the confines of the law. What unfortunately is different nowadays, I don't think that's changed. I think General Motors would still be pouring mercury into the river if there wasn't, I would agree, wasn't an epa. The failure of the glitch in the matrix is that we used to have checks and balance in the form of leadership that prevented a tragedy of the commons. But because of Citizens United, now the only thing that elected officials care about is getting reelected. And the only thing you need to get reelected is more money than the next person. And Silicon Valley has connected the dots here. And it said we can compromise inch by inch their ability to regulate us and prevent a tragedy of the commons by throwing money at them. And now billionaires, the 900 billionaires in the United States are responsible for 19%

52:40

of the pack giving I know was that number. So I think you should ask Talarico about this. I'm sorry. You should let him talk about this issue. I mean, ultimately, this is not a good situation for all of us. And someone came up to me the other day who had been critical of my book being too hard on Silicon Valley burn book. And they said, I have to apologize, you weren't hard enough. And I was like, you're abso fucking lutely right. But anyway. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, what Barry Diller is saying about cnn. It's not just something you make made.

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55:19

I don't think your programming, I don't think it's being optimally programmed. I don't think it's competitive now. By the way, the facts support that. Meaning that its ratings have declined, its revenue has declined. It still is quite profitable. But how would you alter it? Oh, in every way. Look, feel and see every.

56:03

And I mean, I hope I get the chance.

56:29

I don't think I will, but I hope I do.

56:31

I'm not sure when this was but I, I, I texted him. He said it's not happening. He said not that now that the Ellisons have it and they, and he quite correctly, and I happen to know this, they're going to combine CNN and cbs. He doesn't think he, he has a chance. I would love to work for him very dilly. He's much more conservative than I am, but I would certainly love. He's such a good programmer. He's such an interesting man. He does love journalism, even if he gets mad at it sometimes. He's someone I appreciate in that regard and it would, I wrote him, I said can you please. And he's, there's no way. So I can, I can knock this one out of the water. He can't do it unless, please Ellison, sell it to Barry Diller, please. That would be great. So, any thoughts?

56:34

I, I mean I would love to see Barry Diller partner with Jeff Zucker and a private equity firm. And I think there's more, a greater likelihood than people believe that the Ellisons might say this is too big a headache. We might just sell combined CBS and CNN to someone else. Because I think that I'm not sure and maybe I'm being naive here. I'm not sure they're as Machiavellian as people think about trying to control the world. I don't know. But maybe they have some grand vision for how they integrate it into TikTok. But I can't imagine Larry Ellison is as smart as is. Isn't going to say this is going to be more headache than it's worth.

57:20

They wanted the studios, I agree they're not quite as Machiavellian. They, they're just opportunistic. I would say I, you know, David Ellison was, was Democratic.

57:57

You're the third richest man in the world by focusing on, on economics. And I think that anyways, I think there's a shot.

58:07

CNN makes a lot of money. Diller is correct.

58:15

It makes it's high margins. But I did some analysis here because I just wanted to show you like one of the things one talk about some numbers of cable news. I spent a decent amount of time last night on AI looking at ratings and viewership. And essentially what I did was just to give you a sense for the ecosystem. And also I never miss a chance to make Pivot look good.

58:16

It is good.

58:38

I looked at gross viewership. That is the number or listenership. That's the number of people who watch a program and then see it on YouTube or on social or download the audio and listen to it. And actually listens are more valuable, valuable than views because it's a more intimate experience. And that's why you get higher CPMs on podcasts right now than you get on cable TV. CPM is the cost per thousand viewers and advertisers willing to pay. So let's look at gross viewership. The number of times someone or the number of people that watch the program see it on YouTube or somewhere else or listen to the podcast version of it. Fox News averages during prime time. Fox, Fox News during primetime averages 2.1 million in gross viewership. This is staggering. CNN, 660,000. Fox is kicking the shit out of CNN. Pivot's gross viewership is 375,000. CNBC is 252,000. Now that's a bit of a, a misnomer. It's important. But what advertisers care about, they don't care about kids, they don't care about seniors. They care about people age 25 to 54 who are buying kids houses and cars and in their mating years.

58:39

This is a single pivot, not two together of the week. Right?

59:55

This is, this is one show.

59:58

One show. Not because we do two a week, but go ahead.

1:00:00

This is one show. So in the core demo, that's adults 25 to 54. Let me start here, which will explain that number. Let's look at the median viewer area age. Fox News, the median is 69. CNN at 67. CNBC at 63. Pivot, the median age is 42.

1:00:02

42.

1:00:23

So which leads you to believe, as you should, that the number, the percentage of viewers in the core demographic for these institutions or for the cable guys in CNBC is somewhere between 20 and 30%. For Pivot, it's 70% moving, meaning the number of people listening or watching these programs. Listening to or watching these programs. In the core demo that advertisers care about. CNBC gets 63,000 people on average watching their programming who are in the core demo. CNN gets 135,000, Fox gets 197,000 and Pivot gets 233,000.

1:00:24

Beat them in the demo.

1:01:03

So we're getting more people in the core demo and, and then which leads to the following. Our average cpm according to Ray Chow, ultimate nice guy and new father from Vox, we get a CPM of $45. The word I've heard from CNN is they get between 13 and $17. I don't know what Fox gets. So just to give you a sense. Oh, and let's talk about median household

1:01:05

income and cost of doing business. But go ahead, ahead.

1:01:32

Yeah, you want to reach wealthy people. Wealthy people are now responsible for 50% of consumers spending that more discretionary income. Right. Fox News, the average household, the median household income is $60,000. CNN 65, CNBC 85. That's not a pivot 150 because we get a very tech heavy, high paid audience. So it's pretty obvious why cable news. Fox is actually doing pretty well, but cable news as a whole is dying. It's literally dying. So Barry Diller saying he wants a new look and a new feel. What I would suggest is unless you can pick it up at distressed pricing and consolidate it with a bunch of other stuff, I think Barry's falling into the same trap that a lot of people follow into and that is nostalgia is not a strategy. I don't think there's any, I don't think there's any coming back really interesting.

1:01:34

They're too expensive. I mean you didn't even figuring costs. Our costs are basement compared to all their costs.

1:02:31

Oh, the gross margins.

1:02:37

Yeah.

1:02:38

I mean then, then it gets, it goes from ugly to worse.

1:02:39

Yeah. What's interesting is there, there, there's, it's a, it's still a great brand and I agree with you about the romanticism. And he happens to be even today at his, he's much older, is still the best programmer around.

1:02:42

He's been, he's, he's a, he's a legend in the world of media.

1:02:57

But not just that, I don't, I've never seen him think, think like oh, I do.

1:02:59

Yeah. But so has John Malone and he hasn't been able to figure it out.

1:03:03

I agree, I agree, but I'm just saying I wouldn't like just say, oh, he's just being romantic. I've had discussions with him, he's got some great ideas and I agree It's a real problem. I would spin it off and see what Zucker and Diller could do, because both of them, very good. They have a lot of ideas and bring in people who have great ideas. And what would you do with it? If they said, here is this. This is what you have, Scott, what would you do with it? I know you have just an anathema to television. I know that. But it's an interesting. I think it's what he knows best. And it would be interesting. I think he would be an interesting owner. He said it's not happening, but it's nice that he's bringing it up, I think. Well, sorry. And by the way, speaking of our demo, of our young demo, 42 means there's a lot of people on the very young side, a lovely young man named Evan. Last night I was going into this party for Hank Paulson and was like, I love Pivot. Say hi to Scott. And I was like. And Amanda was like, that is a very young person. I get stopped by very young people, very old people, most much in the middle and very different people. And I really. Evan, I really appreciate all the nice things you said about the show because we like all our different fans. But you're right, an age thing is important. All kinds of stuff. Anyway, Barry, good luck. All right. We're not gonna be buying it, and I won't go off on my craziness like I did with the post. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for Predict. This episode is brought to you by White Claw Search. Great podcast pick, friend.

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Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with

1:05:00

a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments.

1:05:02

But that's weird.

1:05:14

Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try@mintmobile.com switch upfront payment of 45 for 3 month plan equivalent to 15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com hey, Kara Swisher here. I want to let you know that Vox Media is returning to south by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcasts. Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of Today Explained, Teffy Talks, Prof. G Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher. The stage will also feature sessions from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu and Robin Arzon. It's all part of the Vox Media Podcast stage at south by Southwest presented by Odoo. Visit voxmedia.comsxsw to pre register and get your special discount on your Instagram innovation badge. That's voxmedia.comsxsw to register. Really?

1:05:15

You should register.

1:06:19

We sell out and we hope to see you there. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. Oh, one thing I predict we're going to have a great time at south by Southwest. All right. That's my prediction.

1:06:20

That's what you're predicting?

1:06:37

Always.

1:06:38

All right. So my prediction is essentially, I think the markets this year are going to go down. I think we're on the precipice of like a $10 trillion wipeout. Whoa, really? Oh, yeah.

1:06:38

Tell all.

1:06:57

Well, not. And by the way, I get this wrong all the time. This is not financial advice. But I don't think it's from Iran. It's from what comes after Iran, Ron. And this is the chain reaction here. I don't think oil is going to. I think oil is not going to be at 150 bucks, but it's going to be sustainably higher. It's going to be elevated through the rest of the year. And inflation in some markets reignites. The Fed can't cut rates. They're trapped to inspire the economy because they're worried about inflation. I think corporate earnings are really impaired as consumers stop spending because some of them will be paying 5 bucks a gallon for gas and their 401k will start to decline. And Q2 earnings season becomes bad. And then what CEOs do when things are sort of bad is they throw in the kitchen sink and they'll make it look like a bloodbath just to get all the bad shit out. But the real contagion here is going to be from emerging markets. I think there's a decent chance that Pakistan and Egypt default as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Dollar denominated deb debt, very energy dependent, very fragile economies because there's this domino effect in those markets because they can't afford oil imports and their dollar denominated debt just becomes unpayable. And then the real downward spiral starts. European banks holding that emerging market debt start announcing write downs. Foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, all hugely exposed. Credit spreads blow out and we get sort of a. Not this to the same extent, but we get an 08 style which bank is next moment. Except this time it's happening while the US is fighting a war we started for no reason.

1:06:58

It's an excursion, Scott. It's an excursion.

1:08:52

Well, I'm teasing it. Well that's the mistake here. It should have been a special, it should have been a military combat operation. Instead they've turned it into a war with no objectives. But anyways, by August the narrative shifts from transitory war shock to holy shit, shit, we may have broken the global financial system. The S and p is off 20 to 40% from its peak. Bitcoin goes to like 30,000 and quite frankly the only thing that probably goes up is canned goods and ammunition.

1:08:54

And Chevron, well that's a scenario happy south by Southwest.

1:09:28

But it's going to start. The prediction is the following. It's going to start. The contagion is going to start in emerging markets that can't afford Ford oil and their debt is dollar denominated. It's just a toxic cocktail.

1:09:34

That's a very accurate prediction, I have to say.

1:09:48

And the problem is we've shot so many bullets with our debt and printing money that the ECB and the Federal Reserve doesn't have the same firepower to try and lift us out of this. So in other words, it could be like an oh shock. But the problem is we, we have less ammunition for a bailout.

1:09:51

Yeah, with the tariffs, with the debt, with everything. I mean, you know, one of the things that. Did you hear James Carville saying? I don't have enough Trump derangement syndrome.

1:10:12

I want more.

1:10:20

You know, I'm so furious that this fucker, he was screaming this what he has done here with this Iran and it all, as you have noted many times, links back to Epstein again, right? It links back to this guy.

1:10:21

He's the guy in every room.

1:10:33

In every room. I think you're absolutely right that this everything is motivated by either people want to get before while the getting's good or for themselves or an unhealthy need to hold on to power in a demented way. I remember when Elon said that one time. If Democrats, it's an existential crisis for the world. If Democrats win Actually, as I always say, every accusation is a conviction, confession. We're in an accidental crisis because of these greedy fucks and because of the need to hold onto power over everything. And it's going to. It has reverberations around the world.

1:10:34

There's some really interesting tax proposals. Senator Booker proposed basically a tax holiday for young people, which I love. Not that expensive because young people don't make that much money. We need to level up. Young people who are 24% less wealthy than they were 40 years ago versus old people who are 72% wealthier. And then for the first time, I saw a wealth tax that could potentially make sense. But instead of going after billionaires, they should be going after anybody or everybody that, say, has a wealth, you know, more than. Call it $100 million. You get no happiness. Your kids don't get no incremental happiness from inheriting that much money.

1:11:13

Yeah, we're helping you billionaires. We're helping you lift your wallets.

1:11:52

And it should be. It should be annual and it should be small enough such that people don't have to liquidate assets or move to Florida. Like, yeah, it has to be federal.

1:11:55

Starbucks is just.

1:12:04

It has to be federal.

1:12:05

It has to be federal. You're absolutely right. That's great. Okay. All right, we're going to talk about that. That's going to be one of our big topics at south by Southwest. Anyway, because you will have just interviewed baby Jesus. Anyway.

1:12:06

Baby Jesus.

1:12:18

Called him baby Jesus. I dare you. Penis hugs baby Jesus.

1:12:19

The problem is in Austin, you can't find three wise men and a virgin.

1:12:23

Oh, very good. You knew it was.

1:12:27

You knew it was coming. We just heard from the Calarico team and that he has a scheduling conflict. Yeah.

1:12:30

Anyway, we want to hear from you. Stop with the jokes. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-Pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, I'm gonna get serious for a second. Monday I published a story that I think I'm the most proud of. Of anything I've done in a very long time. I sat down with three Epstein survivors who've been pushing for more transparency. On with Kara Swisher. Liz Stein, who's also a survivor of childhood sexual abuse, said her desire to help her younger self fuels her advocacy work. Let's listen to a clip. It would be irresponsible of me to have this position and to not use it so that others did not feel alone in this. Because if I could go back and tell myself anything, it would be to tell someone. And if they don't listen, tell someone else and just keep telling until people listen to you. And even if you feel like they don't, be proud of yourself because you at least were able to sit in your uncomfortable truth when other people weren't. And that's really what fuels me doing this advocacy, being the person that I wish was there for me when I needed them most. This was a great show. They actually got to talk a lot about it. Often you get these shorter interviews. It was really very moving. I dare just listen to it. I know everyone goes, oh good, Dennis.

1:12:36

Yeah. You know, the emotion in her voice,

1:14:01

such dignity, such incredible strength, such heroic behavior in the face of adversity. And you know, it was in a lot of. I've gotten a lot of feedback that's been I really appreciate, but it was all these women. They were astonishing. It's nothing to do with me, but I let them talk and you should listen to what they have to say, as she said. Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week.

1:14:02

Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Tone Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and retired engineered this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mia Sabero and Dan Shalon. Nishak Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine@nymag.com pod we'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. We will see you all in the great state of Texas. It.

1:14:29