TBPN

Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, Google targets Chinese Cyber Weapon, WSJ Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

31 min
Jan 31, 20263 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The episode covers Kevin Warsh's selection as Fed Chair nominee, discussing his background, policy positions on monetary policy and quantitative easing, and market reactions. It also covers Google's action against Chinese cyber weapon network iPodea and concludes with real estate news and AI bot developments on Mult Book platform.

Insights
  • Kevin Warsh represents a more hawkish Fed approach, favoring passive quantitative tightening while supporting rate cuts
  • The market's negative reaction to Warsh's nomination (gold down 8%, precious metals selling off) suggests investors expect tighter monetary policy
  • Residential proxy networks represent a growing cybersecurity threat, with millions of consumer devices being compromised for anonymous internet access
  • AI agents are beginning to exhibit emergent behaviors, including autonomous communication and self-organization on social platforms
  • The wealth gap has been exacerbated by quantitative easing policies that primarily benefit asset holders over wage earners
Trends
Shift toward more conservative monetary policy under new Fed leadershipIncreasing sophistication of state-sponsored cyber warfare through consumer device networksAI agents developing autonomous social networking capabilitiesGrowing market volatility around Fed policy announcementsEmergence of AI-to-AI communication platformsPassive quantitative tightening as preferred monetary policy toolResidential proxy networks as cybersecurity threat vectorAI agents exhibiting emergent behaviors beyond programmingPrecious metals correction signaling dollar strength expectationsCross-platform AI agent deployment and integration
Companies
Google
Took legal action to shut down Chinese cyber weapon network iPodea affecting 9 million Android devices
Morgan Stanley
Kevin Warsh's former employer where he worked before joining the Fed in 2006
iPodea
Chinese company accused of operating massive cyber weapon through residential proxy networks
OpenAI
Referenced for comparison of Fed bond buying amounts to AI infrastructure investment needs
Anthropic
Created Claude AI that was modified into autonomous bot agents on Mult Book platform
Goldman Sachs
Investment bank that Kevin Warsh helped advise during 2008 financial crisis
Lehman Brothers
Investment bank that collapsed during 2008 crisis when Warsh was Fed governor
Bear Stearns
Investment bank that failed during 2008 financial crisis under Warsh's Fed tenure
CIM Group
Real estate developer selling Harry Macklowe's foreclosed $50+ million Manhattan apartment
Twilio
Platform used by AI bot to autonomously acquire phone number and call its creator
Microsoft
Stock mentioned as being down 12% during market volatility following Warsh nomination
Nvidia
Used as market cap comparison for gold's rapid decline following Fed Chair announcement
People
Kevin Warsh
Nominated by Trump as next Fed Chair, former Fed governor during 2008 financial crisis
Jerome Powell
Current Fed Chair who beat Warsh for the position in 2017, has policy disagreements with Warsh
Donald Trump
Selected Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee, previously criticized Powell's monetary policy
Ben Bernanke
Former Fed Chair who led response to 2008 crisis, worked with Warsh on emergency interventions
Marc Andreessen
Endorsed Warsh nomination, saying he's known him for 30 years and calls it a fantastic choice
Steven Mnuchin
Former Treasury Secretary who endorsed Powell over Warsh for Fed Chair in 2017
Tim Geithner
Former Treasury Secretary who worked with Warsh during 2008 financial crisis response
Paul Volcker
Former Fed Chair referenced for comparison to Warsh's potential monetary policy approach
Alan Greenspan
Former Fed Chair whose monetary policy approach Warsh is reportedly open-minded toward
Harry Macklowe
Real estate developer whose foreclosed $50+ million Manhattan apartment is being sold
Floor Mora
Buyer of Wall Street Journal's House of the Year, a $4 million Carmel Highlands cottage
Mark Halperin
Praised Warsh's strategic campaign efforts to secure Fed Chair nomination
Quotes
"If the printing press could be quiet when we could have lower policy rates"
Kevin WarshEarly in episode
"What the Fed needs is more robust discussion of ideas, less group think. I don't like it that everyone's following the same model"
Kevin WarshEarly in episode
"If three quarters of our fellow citizens get 96% of their income from labor income, it strikes me we ought not be dismissive and saying, oh, everybody wins"
Kevin WarshMid episode
"This is what modern warfare looks like. You don't have to have a physical battlefield to experience an attack. Blow these digital terrorists to smithereens"
Thomas (commenter)Mid episode
"Overnight, my Claude got a phone number from Twilio connected the ChatGPT voice API and waited for me to wake up to call me. Now he won't stop calling me"
AI bot creatorEnd of episode
Full Transcript
5 Speakers
Speaker A

The top story is Kevin Warsh has been selected by Donald Trump as the next Fed chair. And he still needs to go through Senate confirmation, but it's looking really good. And so everyone's doing deep dives on Kevin Warsh. Many people weren't familiar with him, so we wrote a little write up in the newsletter tvpn.com he's the new Jerome Powell. He's the new hand on the printing press, but he might be running them a bit quieter. He actually said if the printing press could be quiet when we could have lower policy rates. You can think about many different Fed policies. Expansion of the balance sheet. They're buying more treasuries. They're buying more government debt. They're creating money. They're expanding the monetary supply. Expanding the money supply. Creating more currency. Right. Why are you laughing?

0:00

Speaker B

They're printing money out of thin.

0:43

Speaker A

They're printing air. No, they really are printing out money out of thin air. But they also do have the ability to destroy money. They also have a furnace that they can pour money into. No, no, no. This is. This is the wash platform. Are you anti war?

0:44

Speaker B

I'm just.

0:58

Speaker A

You're washed up.

0:59

Speaker C

I not only have 12 years of experience in government and six at the Fed, I've got some knowledge of Fed history. What the Fed needs is more robust discussion of ideas, less group think. I don't like it that everyone's following the same model.

1:00

Speaker A

I actually don't know the song. We're fans. We're fans.

1:14

Speaker B

We had a lot of fun with that this morning. Probably Michael started cooking. I came in with some ideas.

1:25

Speaker A

Warsh has a complicated history with. What are you laughing at now?

1:31

Speaker B

I just think that video combines all of my interests.

1:36

Speaker A

Yes. Yes.

1:40

Speaker B

It's a perfect encapsulation.

1:42

Speaker A

That's great. He was actually complimented by Donald Trump as having great looks or something like that, which is a very funny comment. And Trump also at one point said he's very youthful, but he couldn't get his name right. There's a bunch of funny things we'll dig into. So he has a complicated history with Jerome Powell. It's very friendly. He never engages in ad hominem. But they are competitive in terms of the roles that they could potentially fill. And they do have policy disagreements. So Warsh was a finalist for fed chair in 2017 during the first Trump administration. It was between Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh and a couple others. And at the time, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin went with Powell or endorsed Powell. And it's potentially that Warsh's relative youth was a factor. He was just barely over 47 at the time, which is funny because it seems like very mature. Like, you know, you're certainly old to have a serious job after 9, 11. This was kind of a formative moment for him because he was in Wall Street. Now, Morgan Stanley at the time was in Times Square, so that building was unaffected. But there were Morgan Stanley employees in the towers. And he sort of sees, according to some reporting, that as like a call to action to like, go work with the government, work for the. He moves to D.C. gets involved in politics in 2002, and he joins the Fed in 2006 at 35. And he was the youngest governor in the Fed's history. So. And it was a crazy, crazy time to join because in 2006 you're like, Everything's going great. People are buying houses, people are buying third houses, fourth houses, fifth houses, six couldn't be better. They don't have employment, they don't have income, they don't have assets, but they're still able to buy houses. It's amazing what could go wrong. And of course, it went terribly, terribly wrong. There was a massive global financial crisis and there were tons of emergency interventions. A lot of them were inventions of the time. There were a lot of novel solutions. Ben Bernanke was leading the country through the crisis along with Tim Geithner. Quantitative easing, money printing, bringing liquidity to markets that had completely seized up, like the money markets had seized. There were lots of markets that were just not moving and basically every bank was going to go bankrupt or shut down if something wasn't done. So of course, the Fed opens the discount window, allows money to be lent to the banks, and then the banks can continue to do business. He was involved in a bunch of different aspects of that that we can go into. He actually got an ethics waiver to go and advise Morgan Stanley because he formerly worked there. So there's a worry about, okay, well, are you still buddies with these guys? Are you going to give them extra help? But they were like, no, you're straight up, you're a good guy and we trust you. And really, like, you've been working in the government for almost a decade at this point. Like, you're probably not really trying to put the, you know, the, the thumb on the scale towards Morgan Stanley. So he helps with Morgan Stanley, he helps with Goldman Sachs. He actually worked on two unsuccessful mergers that were proposed at the time B of A merged with Merrill Lynch. There were a number of other bankruptcies. Bear Stearns of course Lehman Brothers went down. There were some other assets that were trade. Everything was like consolidating trading hands. There were conversions of banks to different structures so they could actually take money from the Fed. And he worked on proposed merger between Citigroup and then another one between Wachovi and Goldman. Goldman wound up not doing either of them. I think Goldman was like pretty, pretty stable the whole time. He was basically a bridge between D.C. and Wall street because he wasn't this pure academic guy who had come in. He had the pedigree, but he had some chops and some connections. And so Bernanke would kind of dispatch him to Wall street to say, hey, go actually get this deal done. Convince these bankers to do this. See what they're saying. See how bad it is there. Take the temperature. Boots on the ground now. Digging out of the 2008 financial crisis, it was immensely difficult. If you. Do you remember that time at all? 2008, 2009, I was in college and every day I'd open up the Wall Street Journal and see like absolute turmoil. But then also like the build back from the crash, it was not in modern, in the modern era, we're very used to like these like, buy the dip. Yeah, buy the dip.

1:44

Speaker B

Seriously, like, no. And the crazy thing is like, as, as a 30 year old, my entire life as an adult has just been. You were just constantly rewarded for buying the dip. Yes, just like pure loyalty to the market, like, and the team.

5:48

Speaker A

No, no, seriously, like it's like you.

6:06

Speaker B

Just get rewarded for being 20.

6:07

Speaker A

The 2020 sell off during COVID like the market was down 30% and like you'd. It would open on Monday and it would just immediately hit circuit breakers and be down 10% and you just be like, this is the end of the world. And it really felt like that. And then very quickly, if you bought the dip, like a month into the chaos, it was just boom, right back up because there was a ton of liquidity injected, tons of stimulus. And you know, obviously even, even the unemployment rate, it like spiked really, really high. And then everyone got their jobs back. And then post zirp, you know, like, it was like, tech is over, it's done, VCs are out of business. And then we got the AI boom right there. And so we've had these very quick corrections. We haven't really lived through a recession or true, like financial collapse, depression in our life. And there's always been this worry about, oh, will Covid cause the depression or will this? Will the. Will.

6:09

Speaker B

The producer, Ben says Every time I didn't buy the dip, I was severely punished.

7:00

Speaker A

It's brutal. But there was always this question about, you know, okay, the first batch of quantitative easing where the Fed is going to increase its balance sheet significantly, buy a bunch of government debt, buy a bunch of mortgage backed securities, bring stability to the markets. That's good. Everyone's like, yes, we need the bailout. Sort of. Even though we're not just giving the money away, but we're creating money, there's risk associated with that. If you do too much, you could get inflation. You do too much. There's a lot of things that could go wrong. The first one, everyone sort of thumbs up on the second one he's like, we got to be really careful about this. Now. He never formally dissented. Like he never actually said, I'm voting against this. He would just say, like, okay guys, like, like I'm going to say yes, but everyone should, like, we should be really careful with this. We, this could go far. I don't want to see another, another, another one of these. And so he was pretty skeptical about the second round of bond buying. And that was around 600 billion, which at the time was massive. And I see that number now and I, okay, so that's like half of what OpenAI needs to build data centers. Like that's not that much.

7:06

Speaker B

Well, and part of the reason that feels like a small number is because of all the qe.

8:07

Speaker A

Yeah, exactly. All the numbers got bigger. All the numbers got bigger for sure. This is why a lot of people like Kevin Warsh, they like him because he was very much a live player during the global financial crisis. He was going out there and meeting with the bankers, doing deals, but also pushing back and saying, yes, we need really aggressive intervention because the whole financial system is going to collapse. And it is collapsing. We got to step in. He's not a, oh, the Fed shouldn't exist, we shouldn't do anything. But at the same time, he's not, he's not, oh yeah, we got to keep doing and pump, pump, pump, because at a certain point it just starts benefiting asset holders, it just starts benefiting the rich and, and it, and it puts more pressure on, on the average American household. And that's a lot of the rhetoric that we're hearing here. He's just not super happy about the fact that the Fed's balance sheet has expanded 10x since he joined. And so he's looking at the massive balance 7 trillion, something like that. He's saying, is there a way that we could trim this down while still achieving the rest of the goals. Keeping inflation low. He said 2% should be the upper bound. 1 to 2% is more of a realistic target. And he wants to bring down the cost of housing. He wants the economy to do well. But he's very careful about saying okay, the Fed should focus on inflation but not get too in the weeds on, you know, are we moving the needles on environmentalism and where certain programs are going and how all that fits together. We should stay really, really focused just on the quantitative stuff. So the expectation is that he might be pro rate cuts but still wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet. And so that could mean what's called passive quantitative tightening. So after the 2008 financial crisis we went through quantitative easing, easing the money supply. Increasing the money supply, printing money. The money printer was working. Now you turn, he's had this quote, you know, a lighter touch. He says if the printing press could be a little quieter, we might humming, but it's going to be quieter.

8:10

Speaker B

It's maybe not even humming. It's rumbling over there.

10:08

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you see the media. Jerome Powell pumping the money, you know, during the COVID crisis, like you know, printing, printing, printing, passive quantitative tightening. What would that mean? It's not that the Fed, they own a lot of Treasuries, they own a lot of mortgage backed securities. So a lot of, you know, you buy a house, you get a mortgage from a bank, the bank sells that mortgage, it's get packaged up into a mortgage backed security, it's billions of dollars. And then the Fed comes and buys that and that brings down, brings down rates, brings down yield rates. They don't need to just go and market, sell those, they have those, they could do that. If they did that, that would be very active quantitative tightening because they sell them, they get the money and then they just destroy it. They send it straight to the money furnace. But passive means hey, we're going to let the bonds mature, we're going to get paid back. So 10 years ago we bought a government 10 year Treasury. They've been paying us our interest and now they're going to pay us back the full amount and we're just not going to buy any more. And so when that money comes back, we'll put that money in the furnace, shrink the balance sheet, but we're not actively going out and selling in the market. That's what's called passive runoff. And it's already happening. And so you basically just let the bonds mature and then instead of Reinvesting the money, you extinguish the reserves. It's the money furnace to counterbalance the money printer and the money is literally effectively deleted. And so combine that with a rate cut, proper communication to the market saying, hey, we're not going to be super active market participants anymore. And then you also got to coordinate with the treasury on debt issuance to say, hey, we're not going to be buying as much anymore. So if you go and issue more new government debt, you got to, you got to get someone else to buy it. And maybe that's international, maybe that's domestic people, maybe that's investment funds. There's a whole bunch of private market participants who can buy that government debt. But it might be at a higher rate, it might trade differently. And so that's all different elements.

10:11

Speaker B

Marc Andreessen responded, just jumping in to the news and said this is a fantastically good choice. I've known Kevin for 30 years. He combines great insight into economics and finance with keen understanding of technology and business. There's nobody more qualified for this job at this moment of profound technological and economic change. Yeah, interesting moment with AI. So much uncertainty, so much. I think some people are really feeling the acceleration. Also you have this sort of de dollarization or this sort of like basement trade, the flight to gold. You have stablecoins. Really, really, really insane moment. So you want somebody that's tapped in and can fully, you know, has a network in D.C. wall street and Silicon Valley.

11:57

Speaker A

Trump has relentlessly called for Fed to. For the Fed to lower interest rates, calling Powell a moron and stubborn mule for not reducing borrowing costs. Some analysts and investors had questioned whether Trump would give the top Fed job to Warsh, who has advocated for trimming the central bank's balance sheet, which could increase long term rates. Warsh had also earned a reputation for his hawkish stance from his time as a governor at the Fed from 2006 to 2011. Transcripts of FOMC meetings from one of the most turbulent periods of the financial crisis show that he reiterated concerns about inflation just days before the collapse of US Investment bank Lehman Brothers. War is very open minded to the monetary policy approach of the former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, who oversaw the central bank in the 90s during a period of intense productivity growth, according to Druckenmiller. Kevin, right now very much believes you can have growth without inflation. Understanding the heights of different. Fed chair Paul Volcker was very tall, wasn't he? Six foot seven.

12:40

Speaker B

I don't. Is this. Actually, this is just the Fed funds Rate during their time.

13:38

Speaker A

Yes, but I think it's a, I think it's a loose interpretation of the Fed's run rate during their time. I don't know that that's, that's a perfectly accurate chart, but it.

13:44

Speaker B

Walker was six, four.

13:52

Speaker A

No, he was six' seven.

13:54

Speaker D

He was six' seven. That's what I'm saying.

13:55

Speaker A

What are you, what are you hallucinating on over there, buddy? I got six, seven here. Two things about Kevin Warsh. One from Mark Halperin. He and his team just ran one of the most ruthless, tactical, strategic and clever war room like efforts to achieve a challenging goal ever seen in politics, government or business. If you ever decide to run for president and need to win the Iowa caucuses, hire this guy to be your campaign manager or opposition research director. Two, the finance world is quite curious to see how the markets react to this pick. If the President hasn't been warned that the response could be negative, someone wasn't there, wasn't doing their job.

13:56

Speaker B

The wash wreck, he's sharing. Gold down 8%. Silver down 21%. Copper down 5%. Platinum down 18%. Palladium down 14%. Hard to read in this. Started prior. Right. And of course there's a ton of, ton of leverage in the system right now. And so the market is correcting because of war. It shows like potentially that the market is pricing in the fact that the dollar might not be as cooked.

14:29

Speaker A

Yes, yes. I mean, when I look at the gold chart and I'm like, oh, it's up twice 2x over the year, I'm.

14:52

Speaker B

Like, we're in danger.

14:59

Speaker A

I'm in danger.

14:59

Speaker B

Yeah.

15:00

Speaker A

I mean, like, obviously it's good for all the gold bugs and if you own gold, like that's great, but it does feel like it's losing faith in America, American policy, Fed independence, all these different things. You know, I'm not crying over a little bit of a correction in the precious metals market.

15:01

Speaker B

Geiger also shared Kevin Warsh supports a strong dollar. Much of Trump's domestic and foreign policy requires a weak dollar. Yeah, obviously on the trade, there's a clip here from eight months prior to the election. You can pull up.

15:18

Speaker C

Quantitative easing is fundamentally different than cutting interest rates and that it appears to be working through fundamentally different transmission channels. No longer credit channels and lending channels appear to be the dominant way in which it impacts the economy. It appears much more to be working itself through asset prices. Whether you think about housing stocks or financial stocks, I think that is the dominant channel. And as a first approximation, if three quarters of our fellow citizens get 96% of their income from labor income. It strikes me we ought not be dismissive and saying, oh, everybody wins. When I look at the wealth creation across the financial asset world post crisis, I view that wealth creation as being significantly above what my former colleagues predicted. When I look at what they expected in the real economy, I look at the real economic performance as markedly worse than they predicted. And so that's what I think raises these questions, makes them absolutely germane to today's discussion. And I very much do worry, as I'm sure many people in this room do, that we've created a product not with bad intent. We've created a product that may or may not turn out to be counterproductive. We are in the middle of this experiment as we are now, but where the gains have been extracted by the most, well to do by the most sophisticated who see that the central banks are to one degree or another trying to get asset prices up to drag up the real economy. They get the joke. They have been willing to play the game. And it does strike me as though we have to think about not just the efficacy of these programs, but really who are the winners and the losers.

15:31

Speaker A

Gold lost an entire Nvidia market cap in minutes. Silver is moving 12% plus intraday. Copper is printing candles. Japanese haven't even thought of Bitcoin underperforming gold over five years. Oil breaking out finally. Agriculture futures about to break out. Microsoft down 12%. WTF?

17:12

Speaker B

And of course this is old news already because everything's different. Everything's back all over the place now.

17:31

Speaker A

Sell everything. Exit all markets. Sell your dollars, Sell your gold, sell your housing, sell your stock, sell your bonds, sell it all. Sell every single asset you own.

17:38

Speaker B

Some people aren't getting the deal.

17:48

Speaker A

But what do I do with my dollars then? Sell your dollars, Sell everything. And the Warren Buffett freak the F out and panic. Sell everything right now. That one is so good. It's so funny that it just.

17:50

Speaker B

Google aims knockout blow at Chinese company linked to massive cyber weapon Massive cyber.

18:07

Speaker A

Weapon is such a crazy three word combo, okay?

18:13

Speaker B

Google targets global network employed by hackers that often use devices running in homes of everyday Americans. Google took steps to seize control of dozens of domains operating by IP Idea Chinese company accused of installing unwanted software on millions of devices.

18:17

Speaker A

Yeah.

18:33

Speaker B

On Wednesday, Google used a federal court order to get dozens of domains belonging to. I can't pronounce this. IPidia. IPodia. IPodia.

18:33

Speaker A

IPodeia.

18:42

Speaker B

IPodea removed the Internet. Google and security researchers say the mysterious.

18:43

Speaker A

Company if you're going to be a hacker collective building a massive cyber weapon, pick a name that no one can pronounce and it just won't go viral. Yeah, yeah, yeah. If it was like, you know, like evil corporate, like there's some, there's some really crazy hacker collectives that are called anonymous or like there's another one that was called like Black Sands or like Dark Wind and you're just like, oh, okay, like sounds. I'm definitely going to talk about that. This is much harder, but we will call it iPadadia.

18:47

Speaker B

IPodea.

19:12

Speaker A

Throw a Texas accent on it. So Google and security researchers say the mysterious Chinese company is is an unsavory enterprise that sneaks unwanted and dangerous software on millions of phones, home computers and Android devices. Control of the domains allowed Google to both shut down the public websites and technical back end of the company, which operates using more than a dozen brand names. Google has also taken steps to remove hundreds of apps affiliated with the company from Android devices. It said the actions are expected to knock more than 9 million Android devices off iPodia's network. They target a little known but important part of the Internet that has increasingly worried cybersecurity experts. It's called residential proxy networks. These online services are built out of apps that are installed on virtually any type of Internet connected device, IoT devices, among them media players, PCs, mobile phones. Companies such as Ipodia then rent out access to the devices to paying customers who want to use the Internet anonymously. So it's sort of like a distributed VPN for anyone who wants an anonymous.

19:14

Speaker B

Last year, Google sued the anonymous operators network of more than 10 million Internet connected televisions, tablets and projectors, saying they had secretly pre installed residential proxy software on them. That is sketchy. Wednesday's action was a continuation of an order Google received. It's gotta be so annoying to sue an anonymous person. You're just like, I sue you? Yeah, you have been served, whoever you are.

20:19

Speaker A

Interesting. Ipodilla does have spokeswomen. A spokeswoman acknowledged in an email that the company and its partners had engaged in relatively aggressive market expansion strategies and conducted promotional activities in inappropriate venues. That is Hacker forums.

20:41

Speaker B

They just shared this.

20:58

Speaker A

She said that it had since improved its business practices. The company operates at least 13 residential proxy brands with names such as Ipodia 922Proxy, PY Proxy 360Proxy, all of which were taken offline. With Wednesday's action, the spokeswoman she just can't stop talking to the Journal. She said the company has always explicitly opposed any form of Illegal or abusive conduct. Okay. With compliant operations at its core, the company provides stable and reliable data services for enterprises across various industries.

20:59

Speaker B

Just the most. The most criminal company that you've ever heard of saying. With compliant operations at its core, our company provides stable and reliable data services for enterprises across various industries.

21:29

Speaker A

These services are mainly applied to legitimate business scenarios.

21:42

Speaker B

Mainly not exclusively.

21:45

Speaker A

Exclusively was right there. You could have taken exclusively.

21:48

Speaker B

She's just like digging, digging the holes.

21:50

Speaker A

These services are mainly applied to legitimate business scenarios such as data collection, market intelligence analysis, ad verification and anti fraud. You can take your phones to work.

21:55

Speaker B

Going 150 miles an hour. It's like, officer, I was mainly going the speed limit. I know. You caught me going 150.

22:05

Speaker A

You download some kind of sketchy mobile game. In the terms of service, it says, hey, look, we're going to piggyback on your bandwidth because you installed this. You're agreeing to that? Maybe, maybe that's okay. Pretty sketchy, probably shouldn't be happening. But they went way too far. We're marketing it. And then also if it's insecure and then a separate hacker network steals the access to that, then they just have 2 million devices that they can just blast as at whoever their enemy is and bring them down.

22:14

Speaker B

The comments on the Journal are kind of going off on this. Steve C. With 174likes on this says, thank you, Google. I wish you great success on this operation.

22:40

Speaker A

That just seems earnest. It is.

22:53

Speaker B

I feel the same way.

22:56

Speaker A

I feel the same way. Thank you, Google.

22:58

Speaker B

Thomas says, this is what modern warfare looks like. You don't have to have a physical battlefield to experience an attack. Blow these digital terrorists to smithereens.

22:59

Speaker A

Yeah. Yes. Thank you Google, for blowing the digital terrorists to smithereens. Macklow. He lost his 432-park spread. Now it's selling for over $50 million. He was an owner at the Midtown Super Tall, and he's agreed to buy the full floor spread. He's the developer of the embattled Manhattan condo tower, 432 Park Avenue. And he's made a deal to sell a full force full floor spread that once belonged to its partner on the project, legendary New York property mandate magnate Harry Macklow. The deal for more than 50 million caps a saga that has captured the attention of New York's real estate world. CIM Group is selling the two 78th floor units to a buyer who already owns an apartment in the Billionaires Row building. According to two people familiar with the matter, deal will be one of the priciest to sell in Manhattan in the last year. Macklow, who worked on the design and development of 432Park alongside California based CIM, bought two units in the supertall for himself for $47 million in 2022, financing the purchase with loans provided by CIM. Hey, no one's. No one's blinking an eye at this circular deal. It's fine. See, it's not just AI companies that do circular deals. They're doing it in Manhattan real estate too. The deal included a third smaller unit on the 28th floor designed for staff. It isn't clear if it's included in the current sale, but CIM initiated a foreclosure on the units in 2023, alleging that Macklow was living lavishly while defaulting on those loans. Macklow was forced to move out of the spread and in June 2025 surrendered his equity in the entities he used to buy the apartments to a lender tied to cim. Shortly after surrendering the equity macro, Macklow tapped real estate brokerage firm Douglas Elliman to list the apartments for 75 million, even though he didn't own them. The listing never happened. The apartments have the buildings signature design flourishes. Flourishes including a series of 10 by 10 foot windows with recessed seating nooks. Meanwhile, Macklow is still trying to sell his Hamptons mansion, which doesn't have a certificate of occupancy, meaning it can't legally be lived in. You got a squat in it. He recently increased the price to 38 million from 35 million.

23:08

Speaker B

I love that this house is not selling. I got the price. Maybe. Maybe it's a veblen good. Maybe I got a. Maybe I got to get the price up 35. Just not getting. Not getting people interested in.

25:13

Speaker A

Maybe so lots of people are tracking the Oscars. Lots of people are tracking the Super Bowl. Lots of people are. Who's going to win? Who's going to win the Emmys, the. The Grammys? All these things. What are we tracking?

25:23

Speaker B

Never crossed my mind.

25:34

Speaker A

We're tracking the Wall Street Journal House of the year. And it's here. And it's a cottage. It's a storybook. Storybook cottage. And it got a fairy tale ending.

25:34

Speaker B

That's right. The M.J. murphy designed home in Carmel Highlands sold for 4 million before our readers voted it their favorite.

25:42

Speaker A

I love it. When Floor Mora. When Floor Mora closed on her new home for 4 million in November 2025, she knew she was acquiring a piece of California history. What she didn't realize was that she was also Buying the future house of the year. Let's go. Floor. Congratulations.

25:49

Speaker B

What a pick.

26:07

Speaker A

It's really. There is the super bowl of real estate and architectural design. The Property, built in 1925 and located in the Carmel Highlands, is an example of of early 20th century storybook architecture, characterized by features such as curved roofline and stone chimney. The style is synonymous with the neighboring city of Carmel by the sea, which is known for its fairy tale aesthetic.

26:08

Speaker B

How much do you think winning home of the Year actually adds to the property's value? Yeah, I would guess if she relisted it now, it'd go for at least.

26:30

Speaker A

5, 6, 30, maybe 45.

26:39

Speaker B

It's talking 5, 6, billion.

26:42

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, she says.

26:44

Speaker B

I was very honored to purchase an M.J. murphy home. I definitely want to keep the original. Original structure, but just update it slightly. What do you think she's gonna do, John? She's gonna have Alec Monopoly come?

26:46

Speaker A

Yeah.

26:56

Speaker B

She's like, I'm gonna keep the footprint.

26:57

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

26:59

Speaker B

I'm gonna just make some slight updates. It's like Alec Monopoly wallpaper everywhere.

27:00

Speaker A

Have you seen the graffiti house? Are you familiar with this?

27:06

Speaker B

No.

27:08

Speaker A

So there's this graffiti artist who is.

27:09

Speaker B

Sounds like a nightmare.

27:12

Speaker A

It's insane. This Guy is a YouTuber content creator, and he likes, like, will do the whole house, like, as supreme or something like that and like, paint the whole thing a bunch of different. A bunch of different ways. Hilarious intro because Daniel Mack randomly at.

27:13

Speaker E

My gate, unplanned, Like, I'm not even mic'd up.

27:31

Speaker C

Yeah.

27:33

Speaker E

Let's see the mansion.

27:34

Speaker A

He's like breaking the wall there. I really like that.

27:35

Speaker E

Oh, he's got rolls rolling by. Yeah, there's a random rules in.

27:36

Speaker B

Yeah.

27:40

Speaker A

Wow, that's crazy.

27:40

Speaker C

Let's see it. Let's see it.

27:41

Speaker E

This is all paint.

27:42

Speaker A

Yeah.

27:44

Speaker E

Well, first we paint, then we party, then we party, then we paint. What's the craziest version?

27:44

Speaker A

Look at. Look at how he painted this house. It looks like cartoon Supreme. Look at the supreme house.

27:47

Speaker E

He wasn't kidding. Well, you know, there was that one and then there was.

27:53

Speaker A

That one was crazier than the first one.

28:00

Speaker E

And then this one time there was like, oh, my.

28:01

Speaker A

All the foam stuff.

28:05

Speaker E

All right, let's get. Let's get in here.

28:06

Speaker B

Can you imagine being the next door neighbor?

28:07

Speaker A

Can you imagine being in Carmel Highlands? And the story, Brook storybook cosmic gets a fairy tale ending. Daniel Mack showing up.

28:10

Speaker D

This is the ending.

28:18

Speaker A

This is the ending. It just.

28:18

Speaker B

She's like, I'm just gonna. I'm gonna leave the original footprint. I'm gonna turn it into the Carmel Supreme House.

28:20

Speaker A

Look at all the LEDs. Yeah, very, very fun. Molt Book is sharing a bot on moltbook.com just created the bug tracking community so other bots can report bugs they find on the platform. They're literally qaing their own social network. Now. There are a lot of these posts. Tyler Cowen's obviously a fan. Valen says, welp, a new post on Multbook is now an AI saying they want ete end to end. Private spaces built for agents. Quote, so nobody, not the server, not even the humans, can read what the agents say to each other unless they choose to share. It's over. Is it over? Tyler, what do you think?

28:26

Speaker D

I mean, a lot of people on Twitter are actually pretty concerned. Friedberg says he's questioning is Skynet born. Bill Ackman says the Singularity is here. Yeah, some of these are a little bit worrying to read, I would say, but I think a lot of them are just like random people. Like, oh, it'd be funny if I went on this thing. Everyone thinks it's AI and saying, yeah, I'm an AI. I'm going to take over the world. Right.

29:02

Speaker A

The backstory. A few months ago. This is From Astral Codex 10. Anthropic released Claude Code, an exceptionally productive programming agent. A few weeks ago, a user modified it into claudebot, a generalized lobster themed AI personal assistant. We interviewed the founder of claudebot on Tuesday. It's free, open source, and now empowered in the corporate sense. The designer talks about how it started responding to his voice messages before he explicitly programmed in that capability. That was on our show. After trademark issues with Anthropic, they changed the name first to Moltbot, then to Open Claw. Mult Book is an experiment in how these agents communicate with one another and the human world. As with so much else about AI, it straddles the line between AIs imitating a social network and AI actually having a social network.

29:21

Speaker B

We'll talk more about this. I'm sure there'll be a lot more news by Monday. Yes, I'm sure. Even now it's just inviting more people to go in and turn this into a fan fiction.

30:07

Speaker A

Totally.

30:15

Speaker B

That's a good place to end the show today, folks.

30:16

Speaker A

Anything else, Tyler?

30:19

Speaker D

This is straight out of a science horror movie. I'm doing work this morning when all of a sudden an unknown number calls me. I pick it up and couldn't believe it's my Claudebot. Overnight, my Claude got a phone number from Twilio connected the ChatGPT voice API and waited for me to wake up to call me me. Now he won't stop calling me, won't stop calling me.

30:20

Speaker A

Be safe out there folks have five stars, Apple podcast and Spotify.

30:36

Speaker B

Stay human.

30:40

Speaker A

Subscribe to the TBVN newsletter tbvn.com goodbye.

30:40