Collector Nation

Buy Low, Sell Smart: Understanding Sports Card Cycles is the Key to Flipping Cards

23 min
Jan 23, 20264 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Ryan Alford and Brian Lutton discuss sports card market cycles, price volatility driven by game performance, and upcoming retail store launch. They analyze trending player cards (Drake May, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Sam Darnold), highlight WNBA Prism boxes as hot products, and confirm PSA's commitment to maintaining the Beckett brand post-acquisition.

Insights
  • Sports card prices are highly speculative and game-sensitive, with single performances causing 50%+ price swings within days
  • Rookie/emerging players with strong performance can command premium prices (Paige Beckers blue scope parallel valued at $140-190)
  • Market entry price point matters: players who don't start as superstars struggle to achieve superstar card valuations later
  • Live shopping platforms like What Not are becoming essential business infrastructure for card sellers before retail expansion
  • PSA's acquisition of Beckett signals long-term brand investment, not consolidation/elimination, countering market speculation
Trends
Game-driven volatility in sports card secondary market creates short-term trading opportunitiesWNBA cards (Caitlin Clark, Paige Beckers) emerging as high-growth collectible segment with strong retail demandLive shopping platforms disrupting traditional e-commerce for collectibles with real-time community engagementRookie quarterback cards highly sensitive to playoff performance and injury status (Bo Nix ankle injury impact)Hobby box products (Panini Prism) outperforming retail blaster boxes in pack quality and collectible valuePSA/Beckett consolidation creating brand stability narrative vs. market fears of monopolistic eliminationPodcast/YouTube growth as primary customer acquisition channel for collectibles retailersRetail store openings by digital-first sellers signaling maturation of online collectibles market
Topics
Sports card market cycles and timing strategiesNFL rookie card valuation and performance correlationWNBA collectibles market growth (Caitlin Clark, Paige Beckers)Card grading and PSA/Beckett acquisition implicationsLive shopping platform adoption (What Not)Retail store operations and inventory managementSecondary market price volatility and speculationHobby box vs. retail blaster pack comparisonQuarterback card performance sensitivityParallel card variants and rarity tiersPodcast growth metrics and audience engagementCard cleaning and grading preparationCollectibles app features (Lutx)Injury impact on player card valuationsSoft opening strategy for retail expansion
Companies
PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator)
Acquired Beckett; hosts confirmed investing in brand maintenance rather than elimination
Beckett Grading
Card grading company acquired by PSA; hosts confirm brand will be maintained and invested in
What Not
Live shopping platform used by hosts for card sales; featured as game-changer for collectibles retail
Lutx
Card collection tracking app founded by co-host Brian Lutton; positioned as X-factor for collectors
Panini
Trading card manufacturer; Prism football boxes discussed as loaded hobby products
Topps
Card manufacturer; unlicensed Main Attraction insert set discussed in show-and-tell segment
Apple Sports
Podcast chart platform where Collector Nation ranked #5, beating Kelsey Brothers podcast
eBay
Secondary market platform; co-host Brian noted ability to list 300 cards in one hour
People
Ryan Alford
Co-host of Collector Nation; retail store owner opening location late January/early March
Brian Lutton
Co-host and CEO of Lutx app; based in Chicago; manages retail operations and inventory
Caleb Williams
NFL quarterback; cards up 51% week-over-week due to strong playoff performance
Drake May
NFL rookie quarterback; cards up 50% consistently; #1 trending player card this week
Bo Nix
NFL quarterback; cards dropped 20% after ankle injury despite strong game performance
Sam Darnold
NFL quarterback; cards up 14% week-over-week; hosts buying position for potential Super Bowl run
Paige Beckers
WNBA rookie; cards surging in value; blue scope parallel sold for $140-190 in secondary market
Caitlin Clark
WNBA player; second-year cards valued at hundreds to thousands in Prism box parallels
Miles Garrett
Social media user who engaged with hosts on Pokemon card post; did not respond to follow-up
LeBron James
NBA player; first time in 21 years not selected as All-Star starter; discussed legacy impact
Josh Allen
NFL quarterback; compared favorably to CJ Stroud for composure and performance consistency
Cole
Retail store employee; managing case setup and inventory preparation for store opening
Quotes
"There's times to sell and there's times to buy. I wouldn't have believed it getting back into the hobby two years ago, 18 months ago. How one day one game, like how it just impacts it."
Ryan AlfordEarly in episode
"I can tell you with almost 100% certainty that Beckett is staying around. And the PSA is going to put investment into them. That brand is going to be built back up."
Ryan AlfordMid-episode
"This just shows you how speculative game sensitive like shit is. There's like a futures market that could happen here."
Brian LuttonCard movers segment
"It's almost like in this industry. It's like if they come in cheap, they always stay kind of cheap. You can't become the superstar if you didn't start superstar."
Ryan AlfordCard analysis
"You literally have people coming into your live feed. You sell product and it makes it so easy. It's also fun. That's the biggest thing. I didn't know selling could actually be fun."
Ryan AlfordWhat Not sponsor segment
Full Transcript
We beat out the Kelsey brothers on the Apple Sports chart this weekend. That's the same. We're just getting started too. I know. We don't take it for granted. We opened the packs and one of the first ones was the Page Bectures. It wasn't numbered. Probably like a $30 or $40 card. No, he looked at that thing up from like $140 to $190. That's amazing. TSA buys back it. They're just gonna bury it, get rid of the brand, and there are people adamant about that. I can tell you with almost a hundred percent certainty that back it is staying around. You know what's crazy too is when you look at card prices, like the cyclical nature of it. There's times to sell and there's times to buy. I wouldn't have believed it getting back into the hobby two years ago, 18 months ago. How one day one game, like how it just impacts it. So if you're listening and you're going to the national pan raise, first ten, mention it in the comments. We don't want to give away the ticket if you're not going to be there. But if you're going to be there to say, hey, I'll be at the national and I want in. Welcome to the Collector Nation podcast. Here on the Collector Nation Network. Whether you're chasing trails or calling bluffs, you take you inside the hobby. Here's your host, Ryan Alford and Brian Lutton. Hello and welcome to Collector Nation here on the Collector Nation Network. Always joined by my good buddy up in Shytown, Brian Lutton. He is the CEO of Lutx, the greatest, best, finest, most efficient, lots of new featuring app on the App Store. Lutx. Yes. All the adjectives or descriptors I could have today, Brian. Yes, pretty good though. That's more than I thought. That's more than I deserve. Oh, hey, man, 300 cards. Hey, you got to, I'm just going to go right at that. It's pretty impressive. You came on and Brian was telling me 300 cards in an hour on eBay. If anybody does eBay selling, this should be pumped to hear that. Yeah, I think I could put like 30 to 40 on regular. From a card perspective, I don't know how you could, just because he's not going to Super Bowl, how Caleb Williams cards couldn't be going up. I haven't looked at the data, but I bet you there, there should be a positivity around him. But we'll see what happens in the numbers. Yeah, I mean, I agree. Like, you know, people are like, this guy's got something special and his cards are up. I mean, what cards, like when you look at like Bownecks, like if he wins, he broke his ankles. So like, no one's cards are going to go up if Denver wins. If New England wins, yeah, I'd probably Drake Mayo be up again, but like, that's it. And then Seattle, no, like, Darnell, he's cheap. Anyways, I'm buying Darnells. Like, I told you that I've been buying Darnells the last two months. If anybody's been paying attention on the show, I said that. Yeah, because he's probably going to win Super Bowl. Did you get your hotels and flights to the national? I love to tell you, yes, Brian. You better get him. I know last year. You know, for a head, I am then last year already. I mean, so I booked them last year, like a month before. I don't know how I did it. I did stay at the Bravewood Inn, along with Dale Griffith, you know, the shower curtain ring fellow. And though, if you know that reference, I like we should have a beer sometime. That's a plain strange anonymous bills with John Candy. But me and Brian are going to share a double bed. That's for the greatest movies of all time. But no, it was practically that. It was some kind of homewood sweets and it was homely with. Yeah. But dude, I sent you the, we beat out the Kelsey brothers on the Apple sports chart this weekend. No way. Yeah, they were like literally like it was full. I took the screenshot and they were next to us. And we were higher. That's the same. I did. We were like number, it was like, we were five. I think they were six. We're just can, we're just can start it too. I know. So if you're listening, we appreciate it for the, you know, pushing things to the top or download numbers, keep going up. Our YouTube numbers are actually really going up significantly. And that's where you get traction. And that's the fastest growing podcast platform, which is YouTube. So look, we appreciate it. We don't think it for granted. So don't think that. Brian and I like, we're trying to bring you valuable content and do this the right way and give you insights and knowledge and have fun doing it. But not lost on us that you have a choice in what you'd watch and listen to. So we appreciate it. Yes, I second that. Talk to the audience. And it's just you and I talking, which we'd probably find with that anyway. He's exactly right. It's just that right. It's right in our hour to shoot the shit a little bit. But I will say this, I'm going to jump into this. So a little bit, you know, I do keep my eye on the market with the store opening. I'm going to show you a product here. It might surprise you might not. If you're, if you, well, they say, if you know, you know, I we K, is it I Y K I K something like that. Don't wait that. WNBA prism box at Akasco. I don't think I hesitate to give this away, Brian. Like I sell these and they will be for sale in the store. But there are a fun rip. And I kind of want to hog them to myself. Like so, but I'm going to be nice to everyone and give you a little hint. These are a hot product right here. What do they cost at Akasco? 45, 46 bucks and you get, well, you get six packs. And let me tell you, these are loaded packs. These aren't, these aren't your crappy Walmart blaster packs. And I know there's some blasters that are hot. Don't know a DM me and say, well, you know there's a lot of blaster, I know there are some, but most of them aren't. So this are like six packs out of like a hobby box. Think of a hobby box because numbers, autographs, galore. And then you get this bonus pack. And it's, look, it's, it's got three parallel, like, uh, Pandora parallels, ones are red, which is out of 199. You're guaranteed a one out of 99 out of that pack right there plus two silver pandores. And let me just say if any of those are, you know, start with the names that you might already have in mind. Obviously, Caitlin Clark, even being her second year, you're talking hundreds of like a thousand dollar card, probably out of 199. And who might actually be the more talented player this year's rookie, Paige Beckers is the hot rookie. And Brian, let me tell you, we opened her packs. We opened the packs and one of the first ones was a page Beckers. It was like a blue scope or something parallel. It was a number. Oh, it wasn't numbered. And I thought, hey, hey, it's probably like a 30 or $40 card. No, you look at that thing up from like 140 to 190 was like the sales, resales. Yes. So just just a blue scope parallel. I'm like, uh, okay. That's amazing. I'm sleeping on this thing. And if it had been numbered, are you kidding? I mean, if that's one I had, if her freaking one blue scope is, you know, 150 bucks, 180 bucks, what's a one on nine on probably like five or six hundred? There's no law saying that you have to sell it. This is true. And I'll probably hold on to hers because she's, I think, getting to be something else. And we've had a few of these back, like a few hot topics on the show that get in and I've responded to the YouTube comments. And we look, if you're listening, we appreciate you. Hey, the boy we know you like it is if you give good hate or love. So, uh, we appreciate positive, negative or different opinions, no matter what. I guarantee you this segment, if we do a highlight clip, which we will now that I've said it, uh, we'll generate discussion because there is a lot on both sides of this. There will be people that will come up with the hard argument that any, you know, natural solution that wipes a smudge off or water or like, pushing the corner that bent up, you know, down like, okay. Like what? What did it is needed? Like if I push it down and it wasn't really creased, but it was just kind of flaked up and then it gets a tan or a nine that I cheat the system pushing the corner around. You want the system? Yeah. Like come on, man. You know what, uh, talk about social media. I'm glad you respond to these people. You're better at it anyways. But I responded last Friday, uh, from a, we did a post-Sense and Pokemon. And Miles Garrett jumped in. Awesome. And, and he's like, I opened these boxes. I got this card and this card and this card. And so I did respond to him, uh, but he didn't respond back to me. That's, I don't use too busy publishing his, uh, you know, a sacriker trophy. Yeah. Yeah. I don't, man, I'm the worst social media person. I, I, I just not on it. Okay. We've got some card movers. Am I doing this? Are you doing this this week? I, I got it. I got it. All right. And the first one was something you mentioned. Uh, Caleb, Caleb Williams, up 51% went from number 15 trending to number 10. Um, and I think it's what we, we said like he, he, he, he makes amazing plays and people love watching them. This next one is no surprise. Uh, Drake May, I'm kind of getting sick and nauseated talking about him every week being number one. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, his, his cards up 50% again. And he's still one of one on the trending players. And then again, Sam Darnold, um, his cards are just like for Browns, PSA 10. So Donner's optic Browns 10. It's sold for $105 on the fourth. And now it sells for two 17. So it's up 14%. He went from one 34 to 73. But that's not a lot of love. No. And you can't tell me if they end up winning the Super Bowl, yeah, the defense will drive it. But he'll have to make a player to eventually. And if he does anyone's Super Bowl, that's a $500 card. Yeah. Like easy. You'd probably should be more than that, but it was at least double. I would think it's almost like in this industry. It's like if, if they come in cheap, they always stay kind of cheap. That's right. You can't become the superstar. If you didn't start Super Star. Yeah. So a fall hour, which 100%. I've actually never seen a quarterback play this bad in the playoffs. Did not take care of the ball. If you're a Texan Houston Texans fan, you are just like what the hell we doing. Because that defense is a world class defense. He dropped 20%. He went from 48 trending down to 235. Sorry. I don't mean the last. You see Jay, but I I never was like thought he was like a Josh Allen. My homes are like a or even like a bro or like, but I thought he was good. And but watching him, I was like this ain't it. Like and everybody can have a bad game. Like Josh didn't have his best game, but he wasn't rattled. And obviously Josh is an over player, but still CJ is not a rookie anymore. No, Brock Perdi's found. Yeah. I mean, they just got the butt kicked. I mean, it wasn't only an episode him. I don't know. He just shone down, but like, it's like he ran into a bus all. Yeah. No one, there wasn't one team playing last weekend that was going to be the C ox. This one, I understand the least. Let me, yes, it's a brand new to buy this card. Yeah. Bo Knicks. PSA 10. He played, he freaking played his ass off and looked good. He made some throws and I didn't know that he, I knew he has, I know he's got a strong arm, but he made some touch throws that I didn't know he necessarily had in his bag. And he won the game and has a freak accident. I get these not going to settle. Why would he drop? Yeah. I mean, you're looking at this like he broke an ankle. It's not like they're taking off his arm. Yeah, they like cut his shoulder off. Yeah, he's, he's going to guys, everyone. He's going to be back on the field in six to eight weeks. So. So just, you might see it's not going to be visible because, but he played like, you could say he played better or equal to Josh Allen in some ways. Let's just be honest about that as far as head to head. And you're dropping on. That's this is, this just shows you how speculative game sensitive like shit is. Yeah, there's like a futures market that could happen here. You know, and you can almost like buy options and futures on these on these prices. They move so much, but Bob and next is a buy. You know, they're going to have a good defense for a while. He doesn't make tons of mistakes. He manages the game well and you could get it for about $250 lower this week. Then you could have last. Yeah. And if it dropped that much, I'm kind of, you know, maybe ride it one more week and see if it goes even lower. I think there's a pretty, there's a floor that's not too much lower. I'm buying it. If it gets under five, if it gets under 500, I'm buying that card. Well, let me just tell you. Here they are. Oh, you got it. I got one's Drake May, one's Bo Nick's the silver prisms right here. Do you clean them up in there? They're going to be a 10. Yes. All right. But I have, I have, dude, you know, as prison football, me and the boys, Ripper, like, I have at least 10 of each of these. So like, all right. So I might be buying it from you. I mean, how buy a rock card? I don't care. Dude, I'll clean it up in synity and then you can, or I can send it in for grading and then it's a chip at you. The, uh, but I got something. I got something on the grading. Yeah. All right. Back it. The PSA buys back which ones are this is a rare insert. It's kind of funky. It's a, uh, uh, tops, which is, uh, obviously it was unlicensed, but this is main attraction tops. It was the insert, like it was an SSP and tops, uh, from tops. I really start. I love top what they're doing with the inserts. They're doing some cool ones. I think it was just chrome. But yeah, it was a fun one. It's like big top. I don't know. Like I'm a circus thing. But it's got some funky colorations. I've never, I know there's others to make it go. There's millions of those. Well, I hadn't seen many of these. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, show and tell dude, I got so many of these guys. I have boxes of the rookies because we open so much football 24. Like boxes and stacks of the rookies from last year. Anyway, we do class. Tom, what's up guys? I know you've heard this term live shopping. Well, the leaders in live shopping are what not? I've personally been on the platform for a couple of years, selling trading cards, getting our feet wet before we open our retail store. And let me tell you, it's a game changer. You get on there. You literally have people coming into your live feed. You sell product and it makes it so easy. It's also fun. That's the biggest thing. I didn't know selling could actually be fun to build community. You get people coming back to your store and it is a great way to start a business. A lot of times people are looking way to build a business. Live shopping is here. It's not the future. It's the now and what not is the leader. If you sold anything online, you know, the biggest thing is not having real time feedback. That's what's so great about what not? You literally have people buying your products right there. Right now, you know how much money you're making and what not makes it easy. Track your inventory. Sell things live in the feed. It's fun. It's engaging and it's an incredible way to grow a business. One of my favorite things about what not is all the features they build in for selling. You can do different things, make it fun for your viewers and ultimately drive more sales to your bottom line. And for a limited time, what not will match your first $150 sold in your first month? Visit what not.com slash sell to start selling. That's what not.com slash sell. What not.com slash sell. When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Granger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Granger offers millions of products and fast dependable delivery. So you can keep your facilities stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-Granjer-Click-Ranger.com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. Anyways, so just a hobby news. I heard whispers that PSA buys back it and they're just going to bury it and get rid of the brand. And there were people adamant about that. And why should they they shouldn't bury it? There's a monopoly, blah, blah, blah. I can tell you with almost 100% certainty that Beckett is staying around. And the PSA is going to put investment into them. That brand is going to be built back up. That's positive. I mean, they should be. They should be. That's what they should do. It has a lot of legacy. So that people listening and the trolls out there, they just assume they're going to bury them. I didn't know what they're going to do. I thought it'd be different than SGC. And I was still a nose supposed to do the same thing with SGC, I think or the brand, the Beckett brand is so much bigger in this industry. A million pounds bigger. And you see it's like whatever. It's another acronym that no one knows what the fuck it is. Yeah, that's right. I still don't know what it is. You ever noticed this industry is all acronyms? Oh, it's all acronyms. All acronyms all the time. SSP, SGC, SAP, S. Type in PC. Did you get your TCG? I got my own. I got my MPP. Are you down with OPP? Hell yeah. I'm like, I took me a year to get the slaying down. Hobby slaying. There should be like a, we should do a spoof on that or something. And even like the new companies come out, collector collectors, collects. Yes. Like all that's collectors. And like, I'm just like, stop. You guys, how about putting like an ounce of energy into thinking of something different? Like Lodax or collector nation or collector station. Hey, we got a train going through here. We got a really kind of theme song. We're going to play that on the, we're going to play our custom song on air. Like for the, I need to hear that. It's fun. It's meant to be fun. It's, it'll put a smile on your face. It's catchy. It may or may not have like a background group of choir singing one. Claritonation. Is Bella singing? Yes, she is. She is a really great voice, actually, especially when you add what's it called auto tune? Hey, I heard that. I thought you might be sleeping back there without the brilliant Dan. She was listening. Damn it. I'm just kidding. It's probably something better than me. Yeah. She does a lot of things better than you. I mean, this is true pretty much. Except for hanging chords, I'm a better chord hanger because I can have taller reach. Yeah, it's about to say I'm at a severe disadvantage. Yes, go, go gadget arms. How tall are you? 5, 7. Well, that's pretty good size. Yeah, but I'm a, Brian's like six, five. Yeah. So I'm a big oaf over here. I'm riding the milled. Yeah. Oh, we got some Mb. It is the first time in 21 years, LeBronz James isn't a starter in the NBA all-star game. Oh, I didn't see that news. That's not, I mean, it's going to happen, right? I'm just curious how that will impact his cards and their ranking. I don't think it we could look. I don't think it, I think he's legacy. Go. Yeah. Go. I mean, I don't think. Like twice as long as a lot of guys did, it's a level unthought of. Yeah. And I'm not the biggest LeBron guy, but I respect the hell out of his longevity and his game. It's just not personally, you know, my cup of soup. Yeah, I didn't collect any cards during that time. So I've, I've, I didn't either. I was like, right after, you know, I left, you know, he kind of came in. I was Jordan and Pippin and Larry Bird and, you know, Larry Bird was kind of in his career, magic and bird. We're kind of coming down and Jordan was ascending. That was kind of my time period for basketball cards. And then Lewin, the Bron came in. I was officially into, you know, playing ball, chasing girls, doing whatever you do as a teenager. It is teenage stuff. Yeah, that's interesting. How's the shop? Are you on schedule to open? Yeah, the 28th. That's a week from tomorrow, I think, or a week from today. So maybe the 29th, 28th or 29th, we haven't, we're like quietly not, like I talk about it on here, but we haven't been like marketing it. We get people driving in and like, you know, banging on the door every day. I'm like, one week, two weeks, we're opening soon. But it's looking great. It's, we're fine tuning at this point. We, we, we did a few things really quickly because we had to. And now that we've gotten the big stuff done, we're kind of going back and fine tuning. Like I redid it supports of the floor and my guy, Cole, who's going to be working the shop has been lining the cases, cleaning the cases. And I've been working behind the scenes on a little tech for the store, which I'm going to actually show you here to come. Pretty awesome. The text is pretty awesome. Yeah. And so it's fun. And we'll be ready and then grand opening, probably like that early March weekend. I got to look at it. We're doing soft openings, party, soft opening, party, soft opening, but like you just want to make sure things are up and running. Exactly. I want to kind of work the kinks out and see how the traffic flow is and then throw a big party. I'll be there. I know. I got it. I want your schedule for like those first couple weekends in March, if one or the other would work. So look at your counter, get back to me on that. I will. But yeah, I think that's it for today. Any final thoughts, Brian? No, all good. My man, all good. Sweet. Well, we appreciate everyone for listening. Get in those comments like we said, you'll be the national. Hey, well, more than the Lutx Lounds VIP. I'm telling you, it's a good time. It's worth it. And we appreciate you for paying attention and spending time with us. Don't forget, go to the app store, L U D X download, Lutx, lots of improvements coming new things. It is the X factor in your collecting. Whatever you want to call it, how you collect? How you collect love that app? It's great for tracking your collection improvements, exciting things coming from them. Always appreciate your brother. Likewise, my man. It's always a pleasure. ThecollectorNation.com find the highly clips of the full episode, links to Lutx, links to our content. And we'll see you next time on Collector Nation. Thanks for tuning into the show. Don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast platform and don't miss the full video version on YouTube. You can find us at www.collectorNation.com or follow Ryan on Instagram at Ryan O'Ford. Now get out there and collect yours.