Effectively Wild Episode 2446: Season Preview Series: Cubs and Guardians

Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild, Effectively Wild. Hello and welcome to episode 2446 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Abrelia Fangrass, and I'm joined by Ben Limbergo, the ringer. Ben, how are you? I'm excited to bring all of our listeners a pair of piping hot previews. We will be talking about the Cubs and the Guardians with Sahad of Sharma and Zach Meisel, both of the Athletic. But before we do, I think we must address, because we won't be previewing the Mets for a couple more weeks, And I've seen much chatter among our listeners and Patreon supporters about the diet of Mets reliever Ryan Lambert. Oh, no. Have you become familiar with this story? We're being weird. We're doing weird stuff. Yep. Worried. Worried it's weird. Let's get into it. So this is a story by Anthony DeComo at MLB.com. Here's the headline. Once a misfit, he started taking down 30 raw eggs a day. Now he throws 100 miles per hour. So that gives me some sense of what's to come. Wait, wait. You can't do it that and now because it implies that the reason is the rise. It does. It suggests a causative relationship there. I think that is wrong. I think that's probably wrong. Well, Ryan Lambert would beg to differ because I think he does see some cause and effect here. Now, Ryan Lambert is a right-handed reliever. He's 23. He rose to double A last year. and he was nasty. He struck out a ton of guys. And he has, well. That was about the eggs, Ben. That was a. Believably, I got it. Whip about the eggs. But the stats are also sterling. And he has an interesting story. If he makes the majors, he'd be a good meet-a-major-leaguer candidate, although I suppose we're meeting him now. And he's one of these guys who wasn't highly thought of. He was cut from his college team after his sophomore year because he was wild and he was walking the ballpark. And then he posted a video of himself on Twitter, hitting 99, just had some friends film him throwing a bullpen session. And that got a lot of attention and college recruiters saw him. And then the University of Oklahoma recruiting coordinator was interested and watched him pitch in the Northwoods League. and then they signed him and he did well enough to get drafted by the Mets in the eighth round in 2024. And he would say that it is, at least in part, because he is cool hand Luke in it. He is just downing those raw eggs like nobody's business. And I know a thing or two about consuming large quantities of eggs, as you know, and I have addressed that on our bonus pods, And it's been the subject of some conversation in our Patreon Discord group. But even I must say that this is a bit beyond the tail. To be clear, I consume many eggs. I have never had a raw one. You cooked them. Yeah, I've had them in various forms. I have had liquid egg white, which is not the most appetizing thing, but not sickening. I wouldn't seek it out exactly. I guess I did on occasion. But I'm not sure why it had to be 30 raw eggs a day exactly. Did he just see Beauty and the Beast at a really impressionable age or something? This was after he was cut by the college team. He wanted to build muscle. He wanted to increase his recovery rate. He was not worried about how long it would take him to recover from the eating 30 raw eggs a day. So he decided to do that for a month. And the quote is, day one, it was an adjustment for sure. Well, that goes without saying, I think. But I'm not a chicken, he said. I mean, he did. Did he laugh when he said that? I don't know. It doesn't say laughs or anything, but no. I like a little adversity and challenge. It kind of gets me going. And it says a daily cup of egg goop is only part of his story. The 23-year-old is fanatical about his diet. But, well, clearly, grilling steak and cooking sweet potatoes most days, I mean, that's a bit more appetizing than the raw eggs. He talks about taking Jonah Tong, who we know is a fan of the Canadian maple syrup, to a Brazilian steakhouse. It doesn't say whether it's Fogo de Chão. We've talked about Fogo Power in the past. Fogo Power, yeah. He ordered a bowl of chicken hearts at this Brazilian steakhouse. And again, I consume enormous quantities of chicken, and I've never had a chicken heart, but to each his own, I suppose. But he also passes judgment on some of his teammates' approaches to nutrition. It says that he will walk around the clubhouse dining room to examine his teammates' plates for nutritional value. Nick Morabito says he saw me put an extra creamer in my coffee today, and he was like, come on, dude. Which is a little extreme. You know, I get a lot of flack for my eating habits and my diets. And Ryan Lambert is, he's, I'm on one side of the spectrum, but he is farther on that side. I'm giving him side eye, and people have been side eyeing me for years. Okay. So, look, I want to lead with something that's probably going to surprise some of our listeners based on how violently I reacted to the raw milk of it all. Well, yeah, raw eggs, it's different from raw milk. I suppose, although maybe it's related. Well, look, if we're doing like a bunch of steak and we're – I just – he's painted a tapestry here that suggests a particular information environment that I find concerning, but I don't know that, you know? Yes. Well, there's certainly a salmonella risk here that he is incurring, and I don't know what the benefit of the raw – Wait, this is my question. – to consume in enormous quantities or something. The grossest possible way to consume it. And I'm going to say some things. I'll eat cookie dough. I know that there's a mild risk there. And I'll even say this. I'm down with some pretty weird proteins, Ben. You know, I'm not protein averse. I eat meat, a lot of different kinds. And some of them are meats that people might not like. You know, I'll eat scrapple. I'm down with some stuff that might surprise some of our listeners, I guess. is just what I'm offering here. I like eggs a lot. I think eggs are a perfect food and so versatile. You can scramble them. You can hard boil them. You can eat them raw. You can soft boil them. You can make a nice little omelet for your... You can poach them. You can try them. You can have them over medium. You can benedict them. Right. I'm not opposed to a runny yolk, okay? That's a long way of saying I get that there is a range of doneness on eggs, and I'm willing to say there are ways to eat them that might be closer to slimy, you know, than people would necessarily think that. Part of why you get pushback on some of your confessed eating habits is that you have a very utilitarian approach to food. And not exclusively. You care about how it tastes. But not as much as most people. I would just offer, you know. And that's fine. Or at least I have particular tastes, I guess. Yeah, maybe that's the... The taste good to me don't always taste good to everyone else. Like, you know, people should just go listen to you talk about the salad. And some of the things you put in the big salad are, I think, great. And some of them decidedly don't go together. But I also generally am of the opinion that, like, it doesn't matter. It's not my, or rather, it's not my business. You know, what you want to eat, that's between you and your tummy. That's none of my business. And I hope that generally you're making relatively healthy choices because you're my friend and I want you to live a good long life. I also think that, like, everybody should get to have some little treats. And mostly I just hope that people are able to have a relationship to food that they enjoy and that checks good nutritional boxes but isn't hard on yourself. You know, I'm just and so the part of this that I actually find the most annoying is like, hey, you're not the nutritionist. You're out here having raw eggs, 30 of them. Why 30? Is it an efficiency thing? Just eat scrambled eggs. My God. Also, leave your teammates alone. If your teammate wants to put creamer in his coffee, what business is that of yours? That's none of your business. Also, how bad for you can creamer be? Now, personally, I'm a half and half gal. Okay, I don't like creamers because they tend to be sweet. They tend to be sweetened. They tend to have a flavor, you know, like a French vanilla or a caramel. I've never been a sweet coffee person. And so creamer is not generally for me because creamer tends to have a flavor and it tends to come with a lot of sugar. I like to have like half and half in my coffee, but I don't like to have sugar in my coffee. But also, if I put half and half in my coffee and one of my coworkers was like, hey, laying it on a little thick, aren't you? I would throw the half and half at them. I would commit an HR violation and be like, hey, you know what else is thick? Your head. And I would throw the creamer at them because leave me alone. It's none of your business. It seems like, yeah, like a lack of feel. Now, if he's saying this to Nick Morabito, who's the same age. Morabito. That's maybe a bit different than if he's saying this. Really rough last name, I got to tell you, Morabito. That's, I mean, I think we got a beautiful diversity of human names, so many different names from so many different places and different kinds of folks. But some of them are rough in the English context. And Morabito, middle school must have been a living nightmare every single day. Morabito? No way, man. If my last name was Morabito and I was about to have children, I would change my name. I'd be like, I'm not inflicting this on another generation. I already lived through it. I don't need to pass that on. Let him have my hair, but not my name. The good news, I guess, is that he's down from 30 to 10-ish, so that's good, I guess. Also, there are a few other details about his routine here. Oh, no. In addition to his diet, he is militant about his sleep, rising at 8 a.m. every day during the off-season and stepping immediately into the sun to regulate his circadian rhythm. This guy is listening to the most horrifying podcast. I'm willing to bet that this young man's brain has been cooked, unlike his eggs, by just some of the zaniest, he believes some bonkers nonsense. I'm willing to that. There's some grounding and some touching grass going on here. Touching grass is great, but like... It feels nice in your toesies at the very least, but, and he's also, like, what are you, Superman? You've got to recharge with the yellow sun or something. Look, I'm sure there's something to this. I'm the last person who should be talking about circadian rhythms because I don't have one. Right. Getting good sleep seems like a very good instinct. Good instinct. And some sunlight in moderation, assuming you have sunscreen. I mean, you know, there are some benefits. And then it goes on to say, unsurprisingly, he spends hours in the gym lifting weights and throwing pull-downs. Max effort crosses with a running start to increase his velocity. Now, look, I eat a lot of eggs, and I think nothing of downing a dozen in scrambled form. Beauty and the Beast also came into your life at an impressionable moment. Yeah, look, there's a little bit of Gaston, certainly, but I sometimes go beyond the dozen, and we joke, you know, a baker's dozen is 13, a Ben's dozen is 14. So sometimes one carton of 12 is not enough for me. And to be clear, I'm just putting ketchup on it, and it's not like – Wait a minute. Wait. It's not a side for me. It's a meal mostly. I'll have some vegetables or something. I can't believe you confessed to ketchup on eggs. Oh, yeah. I love ketchup on eggs. I don't care. Come at me. Whatever. I'm a coward about ketchup on eggs, and here's what I mean by that. I'm a big fan of breakfast for dinner because what a delightful meal. I'm a big fan of breakfast for breakfast also. But, like, if you're like, what am I going to eat for dinner tonight? We don't have anything in the house. Well, sometimes we'll eat breakfast for dinner. And that, for me, involves eggs, scrambled eggs, and, you know, a little side of hash browns, little browns. And I put hot sauce on my eggs, and I put ketchup and hot sauce on my hash browns, and then I do a big mixy match. I do a big like, oh, let's... And so, I'm not opposed to ketchup on eggs, but I am a coward about stating that as a preference, and I like to have side ketchup. I'm doing a little... Given everything else I've disclosed on this podcast, I'm not going to draw the line at ketchup on eggs. 14 at once? Yeah, sometimes. How long did that take you to eat? A surprisingly short time. No wonder you barked with the Brussels sprouts. I think that you must eat your food very quickly then. It's Rod Swanson-esque, you know, where he's like, no, bring me all the bacon and eggs that you have. I worry you misunderstood. Yeah, I wish you misunderstood me. Yeah, so some ketchup and pepper is fine for me. But whatever you want to put on your eggs or not put on them, that's okay. That's none of my business. But cooking them is, I think, a fairly important part of the process in some form and to some extent. And the thing is, obviously, eggs, good source of protein. You want to hit your macros, then, yeah, you want to have some eggs. And, you know, I do roughly a gram of protein per pound. And Ryan Lambert is a large man. And he's 6'3", and he's 220. He probably wasn't 220 before he started the 30 eggs a day routine, but he wanted to be. But I think that this is probably overkill. And I don't mean just in the sense that he might contract salmonella, but also this is more protein that I think you can use. Because if he's combining the – now, you know, if that was his sole protein source, I think there's about six, seven grams of protein in an egg. Okay, he's 220, whatever. But if he's also having steak and, like, other meals and stuff, you're probably not going to be able to utilize that. And it's going to go to waste, and it's just going to strain your organs most likely. So this is over the top, I think. And also, he's doing it all in service of Velo. And that's another bone that I have to pick with him here. He is essentially Noah Syndergaard reincarnated. What with the sun and the interesting routines. Is the airline the same? I'm being so mean to this guy. I'm being brutally mean to this guy. I do hear myself. I want you to know, but it is, this is a, assuming I'm right and I could be wrong, one must acknowledge that one could be wrong, and I could be constructing an inaccurate picture, but there is something about this kind of guy that is just, like, uniquely triggering to me, And I am inclined to assume that he has just, you know, power alleys up there. Yeah. Well, he does seem to be single-mindedly focused on getting his speed up. And he is tinkering with a changeup. So I guess that's good. But he is just trying to hit higher and higher readings. And I can't fault him, really, because throwing hard is what got him picked up off the scrap heap after he was cut by one team. And it probably got him drafted. and it's certainly leading to excellent stats thus far, but it's turning into the Icarus situation that I have bemoaned with Syndergaard, with Jacob deGrom. Here's another Met who is following in their footsteps. Now, if he had even fleeting success along the lines of those guys, he'd probably consider that a success, and you take it, and that's why we're stuck in this cycle where guys try to throw harder and harder because it gets them noticed and it gets them signed, and often it gets them broken too, but they might never have reached that point to be broken if they didn't throw really hard. So he is the hardest throwing pitcher in Mets camp. He's hitting 99.6 in the early days of spring training and typically speeds ramp up a bit. He topped 100 last year and he says 100.9 to be exact. So you know he's staring at the scoreboard. He's looking up his stat cast after to see how hard it was. His goal this year is to hit 101 without rounding up. He thinks 102 or higher is possible. Look, it's beneficial to throw hard. All else being equal, sure. But he has had control problems. I don't know whether he might have fewer if he threw a little less hard. And also, if you have these stats, just keep doing what you're doing, just continuing to push it. More eggs, more, more. You love the Kylo Ren quote. and harder and harder. This guy is, he's cruising for a bruising, I fear, if he continues to try to throw harder and harder. And look, he gets credit. Manager Carlos Mendoza, electric stuff, right? And so he gets the positive reinforcement of, yeah, keep doing what you're doing. And in fact, there's a quote in this story from Mets Director of Player Development, Andrew Christie, and it says, He's the best. I feel like that is the exact attitude needed to be a high leverage reliever in the major leagues. Exactly. And it's not clear what he is referring to there. Is he talking about the eggs or is he talking about... No, he's talking about him being insane. He's talking about how every reliever needs to be at least a little bit unhinged. Every single one of them needs to be at least a little bit crazy because there is something about the job that just necessitates, you know, it's like, you know, when like a wire isn't fully disconnected inside some sort of electronic apparatus, but it like is a little bit and so it goes, you know, it kind of makes like a funny sound and like misfires occasionally. That's what relievers need. I'm just saying that this particular brand of male insanity makes me very nervous. and I don't like it. So I'd like to know that I'm wrong. I'd like to hear things that make me think I'm wrong because he has a kind face and I cannot tell what his hairline is like because all of the pictures of him have him wearing a hat. But this particular suite of dietary nonsense sometimes butts up against bad podcasts. I'm just saying it butts up against a bad podcast. So I want to know that I'm wrong about that. Also, I'm like, okay, I have two questions for you. I'm sorry I interrupted you, but you've made me very upset. And what motivated the decision to go from 30 to 10? I guess he felt like he has packed on enough muscle that maybe he could dial it down a bit. It also does mention the expense. I can sympathize. Yeah, eggs in New York City, when you're consuming them in the quantities that I have, it's been rough out there. for us egg lovers. And it does say it's an expensive habit given that the price he used to enjoy at his local Oklahoma Walmart, five dozen for around $5. Yeah, I'm not getting those prices where I am no longer exists. So I don't know if that was why. I don't know on a minor league salary whether he was having trouble having that many eggs, not just consuming them, but acquiring them, paying for them. But look, I guess it's worked out for the Mets thus far. So minor league nutrition. I don't know if this is exactly what we meant in the old days when we used to say, hey, teams, you should actually feed your minor leaguers. It will behoove you and them in the long run. We weren't necessarily saying give them 30 raw eggs a day, but I guess you can't argue with the results that he has gotten thus far. I just worry that some fate will befall him if he continues with either the egg-related or the velocity-related behavior. I really want to be wrong. I worry I've been too mean. This young man's trying to make the majors. He's trying to realize a dream. He's trying to – he thinks he's helping his teammates. You know, like, he thinks he's helping. He thinks he's being a good helper. I think he's better minding his own business, but he thinks he's helping out, you know, and helping them achieve. There's a fine line between helping and scolding, and I'm not sure which side of it he falls on. The safest route, the most caring and careful route is just to, like, leave it alone. It's not your business. Don't make me want a creamer. Who cares? Who cares? You know? Aren't all of them supposed to be doing, like, bullet coffee and stuff, and they're putting butter in there? How is that different? I don't know if he does that, to be clear. Yeah, I doubt it. But, yeah, it seems excessively strict, perhaps. It's a lot. Leave some eggs for the rest of us. I'm not opposed to slimy food, you know? I'm like a slimy time, you know, sometimes. Sure. You could get high-protein cream, or maybe he should look into that, and then he'd be more accepting of it. Everybody needs to chill about the protein stuff. We're all getting enough protein. You might have other dietary deficiencies, but I promise you that if you are eating like a typical American, even if you're not, you're probably getting enough protein. That's probably fine. Everybody, we don't have to listen to the garbage disposal man about the protein, okay? And I understand that a pro athlete, different dietary needs than an average Joe, okay? but everyone listening is probably getting enough protein or probably doing fine. I feel like my brain is leaking out of my ears. He'd probably want to eat that too. Yeah, he'd want to lap that right up. Anyway, this is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural, I would say, and maybe even the methods are unnatural. That much raw egg? Because, like, I think that, you know, again, if I am presented with a wooden spoon and it has cookie dough on it, I am eating that cookie dough, okay? I'm eating it. I'm eating it and I'm enjoying it. And I'm not stressing about it, okay? I'm not worried. I know there is some amount of risk of foodborne illness. But I'm eating that cookie dough, Ben. And I'm enjoying it. I'm having a great day because I had cookie dough. But if you're eating, and is eating even the right word? Is that even the correct verb to apply? I'd say consuming. I'd say devouring. I'd say devouring. No, no. You have to have more solids before devouring can occur. I think that there needs to be less goo involved. But if you're having that many every day, I do feel like it probably, to some, you know, appreciable degree, increases your risk of foodborne illness, right? Like, it simply has to. I guess you can, are there, like, particular eggs you could get that you would have anyway? Just, like, there's so many. Think about it. You sit down and you say to yourself, I want to consume 30 eggs. It has to be an efficiency thing, at least partially, because, you know, preparing eggs does take a second. But, like, you know, think about all the different ways you could do it. You could just introduce such beautiful variety, you know? You could scramble them. You could make a little, like, a goat cheese omelet. I've been making goat cheese omelets lately, or at least being served some. You can get pasteurized eggs, and they can still be in the shell or in the egg white liquid form. But, yeah, be careful out there, Ryan, and maybe he'll come up again on our Mets preview when we get to it. I'm so worried that my judgment is going to make its way back to him. So we're all going to agree to not tell him, okay? And that's going to be our little agreement. I don't think you're alone on the Internet in perhaps having opinions about Ryan Lambert's diet, past and or present. Yeah, but I insulted his hairline. That wasn't maybe necessary. I didn't have to do that. That was more of a dig at Cindergard than it was at Lambert's. Just like straight back, you know? It took him a long time to... Look, I understand. It's a hard thing to reconcile. It was still a party in the back, though, until the bigger end. All right. Well, Ryan Lambert may or may not be listening to bad podcasts, but we don't want this to be one, and so we will not linger even longer on Lambert's for now. We will take a quick break, and we'll be back with Sahad of Sharma to talk about the Cubs, followed by Zach Meisel on the Guardians. Where do you go in a world of bad taste? For the good taste on baseball and life With a balance of analytics and humor Philosophical musics Effectively wise Effectively wild Effectively wild Well, we won't have a ton of winter transactions to talk about in our second preview segment on this episode, so we've got to get some transaction talk in on this one. And the Cubs will oblige. We have some big additions. We have some big subtractions. And we will discuss them all with Shahad of Sharma, who has been doing these previews with us forever and also covers the Cubs for The Athletic and on his podcast, Northside Territory. Welcome back, Sahada. Thanks for having me. I always look forward to this. I was waiting for that message and was happy to get it from you, Ben. Yes, it is. The perennial DM and or email. Maybe both. Depends. So on our last episode, we talked about the Red Sox, and we talked about Alex Bregman as the one who got away. So now we can talk about him as the guy they got. So tell us about the one they got, Alex Bregman, how that came together, what they expect out of him, what kind of an impact he is already making in camp, and how you assess his season last year, which started strong and then was somewhat derailed by injury. Yeah, I mean, this is a player that Jed Hoyer has made very clear that he's wanted on his team for a long time. They obviously didn't have an opportunity to draft him. Last year was really the first chance they had at getting him. And that's probably the most frustrated I've seen Jed Hoyer and the most candid he's been about his frustration. Not being able to kind of finish off that team was incredibly frustrating. for him and he was able to you know kind of maneuver their financials in a way that they could sign Bregman this time around and and not like leave any doubt about it what they expect him to bring it's both on and off the field he's not going to replace Kyle Tucker's offense completely uh they're if they're going to match I'm sure we'll get into that but if They're going to match that. It's going to be Bregman plus others kind of reaching another level or bouncing back, whatever it may be. They expect great defense. He's going to play a ton, just like most of the guys as far as the position player group. And I think off the field, there's a ton of value. And these are the types of things that, you know, I expect this front office to not always look at these things because I know they're very model-heavy and model-driven. But they do. They value off the field things that just can't be measured. And Bregman, I think, is exceptional at those things. He's got a reputation. My colleague Jen McCaffrey wrote a lot about it last year with Boston. Ken Rosenthal has already written about it. And my expectation is between Patrick and I, we're going to be doing this once a month. Because guys bring it up without even really being pressed on it. His teammates bring it up. He's one of those, for lack of a better word, he's a gym rat, a baseball rat. He loves the game. The way he described it is, and this is funny coming from a number two overall pick, but he's not the biggest guy. He's not the strongest. He doesn't have crazy speed. If you look at his stat cast page, it doesn't have a ton of red as far as the measurables go. He's not going to wow you in that, so he had to find other ways to thrive, and he's been doing that since a very young age. And I think he just loves to kind of share his knowledge. He will go out of his way to kind of approach people. And he is very approachable as far as teammates go, talking to him and asking advice. And, you know, when you have a reputation like that, this is a group that likes to pick brains. They all kind of glommed on to Justin Turner last year. Even Carlos Santana, when he was there for a month, people were picking his brain. This is a group that likes to learn, that wants to get better, especially the young guys like Pete, Grow Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Michael Bush. They're willing to listen and learn. I think there's value all over the place, and I think that's why they kind of went out of what had traditionally been their comfort zone since, you know, I'd say like the Hugh Darvish signing, and were aggressive and won, I don't know if it was a traditional bidding war, but, you know, one of free agent sweepstakes for a big name. Every time Bregman comes up and people sing his praises as a cerebral player and he loves having all the information and sharing all the information, inevitably I see someone say, remember the sign stealing scheme? Yeah, we remember that happened too. Yes, we know. It's certainly, it's part of his permanent record, but he can also presumably add some value in legal ways that will not redound to the shame of the organization. And good for him. He's, you know, he's holding strong at 5'11 in the stat test measurements. There's a lot of speculation on certain baseball podcasts about his actual height and whether he'd be busted down below six feet, which he was, but not far below. So unless he has found some way to defeat the system, the man stands 5'11. What can we say? I mean, I'm taller in the morning than I am in the afternoon, too. That's what some of us might say. We might offer that insight into how you can stand up particularly straight. You've seen him up close, I imagine, recently? Yeah. 5'11". Look, I'm six foot. Yeah. What was the eye line? I would not think he's 5'11". I don't think, you know, that's not, I'm not surprised. None of these guys put their actual height. They do get measured very early in the morning. It's very early in the morning when they get measured. Breitman got measured still lying down in bed before he got up, maybe before gravity could do its work. You're right. That is interesting as far as the strike zone is considered. Maybe they, yeah, I wonder how that all works now. They have to be more precise with these things. That's a good, maybe that's something I can ask about. Yeah, just walk up. Hey, Alex, I saw you're still listed at 5.11. You clearly aren't actually 5.11. So I have to get away with that. I'm sure that would be a great icebreaker, and that will serve you well in your interactions with him on the beat throughout the year. Yeah, we'll definitely endear him. You know, you brought up Tucker, and I guess we should talk about his absence. How serious was a pursuit of him this offseason? Obviously, there's the reality of the contract that he signed with the Dodgers, But I think there was a lot of consternation among Cubs fans that you know the perception externally at least was that they were happy to sort of let him go or at least willing to let him go So were they ever actually in the hunt to retain him or was he always going to be out the door Yeah I don think they were going to be you know certainly not the AEV that he got from the Dodgers. I don't think if he was ever fielding those seven, eight-year deals that were going to be big, they weren't interested in that in particular. I do believe that there was some, hey, if he lingers on the market, if he falls through the cracks, we're interested. We'll talk about the multi-year, one-year opt-out type thing. We'll try and go shorter with high A.V. Not what the Dodgers did, though, because we've never seen that before. I don't think they were going to go there, but they were willing to have him back, but it was strictly on their terms. They just weren't going to go above and beyond to bring him back. You know, I think some of this stuff gets blown out of proportion, and now it's become like he's a bad teammate or something like that. I don't think that's true. I don't think he was a bad teammate. There are guys, and I've covered plenty of them, who are great at baseball. And in the clubhouse, they're not, like, the most engaging person. That doesn't mean they're bad. That doesn't mean they're causing problems. They're there to go and play the game. And then all the extra stuff maybe isn't for them. I don't think he was, and I don't think he was, like, skirting his responsibilities or anything like that. It's just everyone's different. And he never seemed like he was mean or a jerk. I never took offense to him, but he wasn't someone I'd go to for a go-to quote as far as my job goes. I've covered plenty of people like that, really good players like that. And I don't think it's a sign of a bad person or anything like that. It's just, you know, everyone carries themselves differently. He's different than Alex Bregman. Alex Bregman, I spent half my time just now talking about him, all the stuff he brings off the field. I don't think Kyle Tucker does that. That doesn't make him bad. That doesn't make him an undesirable player. I think he's going to fit in really well in L.A. He doesn't need to be the star. He doesn't need to be the one that's talking to the media all the time. That works for him, and I think he's going to thrive. That's my expectation for him. I don't think it was a bad fit in Chicago. I don't think that's the case. I just think they had different priorities. Well, one guy who is engaging and who is a good player to go to for a good quote, Pete Crow Armstrong, and he supplied some good quotes for a recent Chicago Magazine profile. Quite colorful quotes, nothing bad. Just I'm hesitant to quote them because Shane would have to bleep so many words like every other word. maybe, but he's just talking about how he's interested in an extension and he just does it for the love of the game, but also he wants to get a fair deal for the sake of everyone else. And just his enthusiasm came through for how much he enjoys playing Major League Baseball and getting to the postseason in Chicago. And the Dodgers caught some strays for some reason, or Dodgers fans. And, you know, maybe he was just pandering to the local Cubs faithful and talking about how they're so superior. But let's talk about PCA, the player who started off incredibly well last year, was looking like an MVP candidate, and then slumped and slumped hard and ended up with a sub 290 OBP. Obviously, patience at the plate, not his strong suit. Defense is, and they say that doesn't slump. I don't know if that's true, but his defense is great. But anyway, he has also talked about how Alex Bregman can help him and has been working with him about his selectivity at the place. It's like, man, Bregman, he's just like a he's an extra uniformed coach or something. What's his non-playing war from everyone who's just like, yeah, he miraculously made me amazing. And anyway, if PCA suddenly walks 10% of the time and gets on base 330 or something this year, then we can just give all that credit to Breckman, seemingly. But tell us a little bit about what the outlook is for him to not necessarily play a full season the way that he started last season, but to get that offensive line, and in particular that on-base percentage up a bit. Yeah, I mean, if he plays a full season like he did those, whatever, three months, four months, whatever it was, he's MVP, right? I'd be very surprised if he can hold that level of play. I'd also be very surprised if suddenly we see like a 10% walk rate or even an 8% walk rate. I just don't think that's him. Here's something that I still can't fully figure out. In those final two months, I believe those were his two best months as far as chase rate went. and they were his worst months of production. The only thing I can kind of point to talking to hitting coaches and talking to Pete is that his mechanics got slightly out of whack and that's really what caused the struggles at the plate. And because he's not super patient and he doesn't take walks, then the numbers just crater, right? Someone like Ian Happ, when he struggles, he's still posting, you know, a 10% walk rate or whatever. Or steer into the skids, chase even more. And clearly positive correlation between chase rate and production. So that's the secret. It's very odd to me, but counterintuitive. But that's what the numbers say. I do think that he can probably improve slightly with his chase rate and selection, pitch selection. I don't expect huge improvement in walk rate. OBP probably won't be his strength and power will be. There are a lot of players that have thrived with that combination, and very few of them play elite defense in a prime position. So he's going to be incredibly valuable. I think what, and this is very much coach speak, you want to flatten out those valleys, right? Like that's kind of what they always say. I like how Craig Council puts it. He doesn't need to improve immensely just at the pitch selection. If he improves slightly at that and improves slightly with consistency and improves slightly in this area and another area, that's a better player. I think he's going to get better. I don't know. I believe it was a 109 way to run Scrated Plus. I'm going completely off memory. Wow. Memorize WRC Pluses. You know, if he repeats that but is a little bit more consistent, is that more palatable? I actually think it may be. I don't know. Or do we want these extreme highs where he can carry the team for a month or two? It's hard to kind of balance that out in my mind, but I do believe that there will be some sort of improvement. I'm curious to see how it kind of manifests because I don't love hearing, I want to walk more. I'm not even sure, 100% sure if he said directly that. I think he would like to get a few more walks. I think he does want to improve his pitch selection. He wants to swing less in general. Sometimes there are players that, you know, you start making these types of changes and all of a sudden you're taking away from your strengths too. So I don't love that. I don't want him to completely change as a player, but improvement, you can't go wrong with that. So I'm curious to see how it happens. I don't think we have the exact answer. I'm not going to take anything away from what I've seen so far because it barely matters but once the season gets going it's going to be interesting to kind of dive into those numbers two months into the season see if he's chasing less seeing if the walk rate can get to I don't know 6% I think that would be a jump I'm guessing it was in the four is four and a half rate nailed it again the entire fan grass player page of Pete Crow Armstrong to mention I spend a lot of time on Fangraph, so that's where I get my numbers, and I spend a lot of time looking, and Pete, obviously, is someone I've written a lot about. And he's 23, he turns 24 in March, and there's time. And if you're going 30-30 with, if not the best glove, maybe it's the guy on the last team we talked about, the Red Sox, Sivan Raffaella, but it's one of those guys, maybe, or Dentel Clark, who really can't hit, probably. So you have one of the best gloves at a premium position with that kind of pop and that kind of speed. That'll play. It would just be gravy if you could get on base a little more often. And, yeah, you don't want to sort of tamp down the natural aggression. You want to maintain that selective aggression that everyone always talks about. You just want it to be a bit more selective. But you don't want him to be passive. You don't want him to get away from what his game is. And maybe that was what was happening late last season, or maybe he just didn't feel right, and so he wasn't swinging because he didn't have the confidence that he could hit the ball with authority or something. He's very much a tinkerer and someone that gets in his head about mechanics, and he has to stop doing that. And one thing you mentioned, Raphael, I believe he talked to Bregman a lot. And if you look at his chase numbers, were they good relative to the league? No. Did they improve? Yes. His overall production improved as well. if Pete can improve to that level, that's a huge jump for him, I think. If he can improve just slightly in those areas, that's a much more productive player and very interesting. Although Rafael, his offense kind of cratered too alongside PCAs late in the season. But yeah, and I saw some Cubs fans, you just kind of want to make it the natural thing for him. He's not thinking at the plate, don't swing, don't swing. You just kind of want to refine his sense of what he should swing at. And I saw some Cubs fans taking it almost as an indictment of the Cubs coaching that he seemed to have been so impressed by what Bregman told him, which was just sort of standard, yeah, it'd be nice to be a bit more selective or whatever. And people were saying, like, well, is no one telling him that already? Like, everyone knows that, right? But I think that's part of the appeal of Bregman as a communicator is just that he's a player. And players have respect for what he has accomplished legally without cheating. And so that makes him a more effective messenger, maybe. He's kind of like that conduit figure, except he's also still a starter and a good player. So he combines that analytical mindset with also the, hey, I do this, so I lead by example. Absolutely. I agree with that. That happens all the time. Sometimes the message coming from a different person, especially a player, the same message or slightly altered but, you know, intended to get the same results can be all the difference a player needs. And he's highly respected. I think it makes a lot of sense for Pete to want to listen to him and hear what he has to say. Maybe we can talk about the way the rest of this outfield will be configured because I think that a lot of Cubs fans would maybe prefer to see, Seya Suzuki in a DH role. I don't think Seya Suzuki wants to be a DH, and that works out well for him because Moises Velasieros needs to be their DH. You have Ian Happ, and then they have a couple of NRI guys floating around. So how do you imagine them sort of configuring this group and what chance to, you know, Michael Conforto and Chasm Korma Kavloff making the roster? Yeah, I mean, their chances all went up because Tyler Austin, who was looked at as like the favorite to be the backup for a spaceman, right-handed bat off the bench, signed out of Japan, former Yankees prospect. He's out for months, I believe is how it was termed by Craig Council with a knee issue. So I think Conforto, assuming he looks fine in spring training, has a really good shot to make the team. And then it's between like Dylan Carlson and Chaz McCormick as that other outfielder. Yeah, I think those are those are the guys that you're looking to kind of fill out the bench. Matt Shaw will be on the bench and, you know, one of the two catchers, which I think is kind of like a 50 50 split between Amaya and Kelly this year, assuming health. Yeah, look, Seizuki and Craig Council says this all the time. He doesn't believe Seizuki is a bad defender. there's not much work he needs to put in his mistakes have been dropping very simple fly balls and Craig always says we don't practice that that's not something what's he supposed to do that's not something like oh he just needs to put more work in it's just like no he needs to make those plays he knows that everyone knows that I thought he did fine when kind of forced into action in September when Kyle Tucker went down with the calf injury Say Suzuki, like you said, prefers to play in the outfield He wants to be out there I don't think he's a detriment to the club out there Ian Happ has won four gold gloves in left field That's left field He's turned into a pretty good defender And all-around player Again, this position player group There's just not a lot of battles or anything going on These guys, in theory, assuming health They're going to play 140-150 games or start 140, 150 games. That's just how this team is built right now. And that's, is Ballesteros a lock for DH? I don't know. But is Conforto a better defensive right fielder right now at this point in his career than Seah Suzuki? Even if they send Ballesteros down and Conforto's, you know, the everyday guy, who's better? Who do you want in the outfield? I don't know if I, like, I haven't seen enough of Conforto recently to feel great about him. Wrigley right field takes a little while to get accustomed to as well. I don't think Suzuki's a detriment to the defense. I think he'll be fine. That's just the configuration I expect. I do think, assuming there hasn't been a huge setback as far as the beast issues with Biaseros, he's in camp now, assuming none of that kind of holds him back, I think he can hit his way onto this team. His September was awesome. so you know I do think he him in the lineup is the best lineup but I can listen to the argument that hey he's got an X percent chance of catching or being a semi-regular catcher catching I don't know 30 games I don't know that if that's the argument and you want more development for him so he just catches for two months at triple A two more months in triple A I guess I could listen to that but I do think he's The best version of this team as currently constructed has Biaseros in the lineup, in my opinion. Yeah, I was going to ask about how they will work him into catcher and when, because he is a top 100 guy per fan graphs, and he had a strong small sample debut last year as the 21-year-old, and yet you also have Carson Kelly coming off of a career year, but he's heading into free agency, right? after this coming season. He's not under control long-term. So is the plan basically just go with Kelly and Amaya for now, and then you work in Ballesteros as soon as catcher is kind of vacant? I mean, long-term, Kelly's a free agent after this season. Yeah, I think they would love to have Ballesteros develop to the point where they could trust him with 50% of the catching duties. I don't know if that's realistic. I'll say this. About a year-plus ago, it was almost like to a man through that talking to people in the front office, like, he can't catch. He's a DH. The tune changed over the course of last year and into this past offseason, where they're like, yeah, I could see him catching on occasion, and maybe there's more room to grow, and he can be a semi-regular catcher. My guess is most evaluators would disagree with that. I do think there's some potential for him to catch a little bit, but I think ultimately he's like a DH. Now that there's this opening at first base as far as backup goes, like does he get some time there? I'd be a little bit surprised. I think they have some better options or options ahead of him. You know, if a year from now when we're talking again, let's hope that there's baseball. but I guess I'd be a little surprised if a year from now there are two catchers and he's you know number two or number one like it would be like he could catch he's a personal catcher for one guy in the rotation I wouldn't be shocked by that or he could pop in there once every week once every two weeks something like that and give guys a breather because you have another guy you want to dh you You have so many bats, whatever the case may be, something like that. I wouldn't be shocked if that was the case, but I would be surprised if he's the regular catcher or even the co-catcher. Yeah, I guess the problem with that is that the personal catcher is usually someone who's good at defense. It's not usually like, I really love throwing to this guy who can't catch at all. So he's going to be my catcher every time. There's probably some precedent for it, but you have a point there. I'm curious, you know, We're talking about some of the configurations that they're entertaining here. I think that when Bregman signed, there was a belief that it might mean that one of the other infielders was on the move. They've obviously chosen to hold on to Nico Horner and sort of relegate Shaw to a utility role. But was there ever a time where you thought, oh, they're going to move Horner and just rely on Shaw there? Or was this always the plan that, no, let's keep the better group together and sort of see what we can do with it? I think even before they signed Bregman, they were getting calls on Horner because, you know, he's an impending free agent and Shaw's there. And I think people kind of knew they were in the Bregman market. I don't think they ever seriously considered it outside of, yeah, we will listen because if we get bowled over, we have to. Just talking to people, I got the impression that the Cubs value Nico Horner more than pretty much anyone else around the league. It would have taken like a Kyle Tucker type return The type of what the Cubs gave up To get Kyle Tucker That's what they would have needed to get Nico Horner away from them which is Like a very productive Established player a top 50-ish prospect or you know a prospect That everyone sees as Quickly becoming a top 50-ish prospect And then another you know Solid major league pitcher type That's a haul I don't think anyone was willing to pay that price I think the Cubs value defense Probably among the highest in the league This front office really values defense And I think they see it as a way to really improve their pitching And kind of save money almost on their pitching in a sense Because now they don't have to pay for the strikeouts Which are obviously expensive I don't think that was a strong consideration there were calls about Matt Shaw I think they would have listened to that again they value Matt Shaw quite a bit and I think some people a year ago he was a top 30 prospect did he rake last year? No did he have a terrible season? I don't think that's the case he had a really good second half offensively and then he was a gold glove finalist I watched him every day I know some of the advanced numbers I can't remember which one. One of them doesn't like him. One likes him between outs above average and defensive runs saved. And I thought he passed the eye test kind of with flying colors. From the moment he was there, he was making plays, and I was like, really? I thought this guy was supposed to be suspect at best at third base, and he just continued to get better, made every play and more. I was really impressed with his defensive performance. And now he's going to be kind of all over the place. So I think he's incredibly valuable. You know, he's the kind of kid that kind of he loves to work. So we'll see if the offense can continue to improve. I will say this. He's also like Pete. He's kind of a tinkerer. And you see, like, the mechanics change all the time. I think that's some of the stuff that when talking to hitting coaches, they just like, they're like, stop. They almost want them to stop because they know they're thinking about it too much because it's like, no, no, no. stop thinking about mechanics. You're at your best when you're not, when you're just like up there and you're just like, this feels natural, I'm going to go. I'm going to go and play and not think about like, this is where my hands are, this is where this is. That always, I think that's the type of stuff that hitting coaches is like, maybe we should just stop teaching mechanics. Almost like putting too many things in these guys' heads. I'm curious, you know, on the subject of Shaw, What was the clubhouse reaction to his absence late last season, and has there been any sort of lingering effect to that? Because I think it washed over a particular part of my timeline a certain way, but I'm mindful that the politics of that timeline are maybe not representative of the average big leaguer. So did that make any sort of impression internally? I think teammates want to be supportive whenever someone is going through a tough time or someone close to them is sick or dies. I do think a rookie missing two games, almost two full games because of one incident, doesn't always go over well in the clubhouse. Guys miss funerals a lot. They do. Look, I get the argument that this is a friend of his. You shouldn't miss a funeral of a close relative. But I know guys have missed funerals for relatives or loved ones because this is their job and they're expected to post and show up and play. So I think there were some people that were perfectly fine with it. I think there were some people that were a little like, really? He's a rookie. Like he's a rookie and you don't do this for someone other than like your mom or grandma or something like that. So I do think it was mixed. I don't think there are grudges being held. I don't think this is like he needs to be checked and have an attitude adjustment. I don't think anything like that is going on. But I do think there was some like a little side eye going on like really. As far as the politics goes, like this is baseball. I don't think I think the vast majority of the people In clubhouses You know lean to the right And pretty far sometimes Yeah the Bull Durham quote Don't think it can only hurt the ball club That's coming up that's really relevant In all ways in this conversation Maybe mechanically Maybe politically who knows But we should talk a little bit about the pitching Probably I did just want to say I thought it was wise to hold on to Horner because when the trade rumors surfaced, it reminded me of when they traded for Tucker and then instantly the presumption was, well, they're going to trade Bellinger now. And I was thinking, well, why not both? He's good. He's flexible. And the idea was like, well, they'll trade him and then they'll be able to sign some pitching or something. And then that didn't really happen. Can't hurt to have multiple good players around. Maybe it can hurt the Ricketts bottom line. but let's talk about some pitchers because they acquired one Edward Cabrera maybe we can start there so we just talked about the outfield picture and Owen Casey no longer a part of it so was it just that that was a crowded outfield that they didn't think he was going to fit in there or just that they really liked Cabrera and they really need pitching they love Cabrera they've wanted him for a long time. They tried to get him last offseason. They tried to get him at the deadline. Finally got him this past winter. I think part of it is does he have a long injury history? Absolutely. That probably tapped down the cost ultimately. If he's been if the health was pristine and he has all those years of control I think it costs multiple top 100 prospects instead of one and a couple flyers. So they like him a lot. I think he's a pretty interesting guy to follow. I believe that if he's healthy with this defense behind him, with this coaching staff working with him, he can kind of start really reaching that potential that he has. I think we saw him kind of start to scratch the surface last year, and I think they believe that's the beginning of someone really finding himself. He's a unique pitcher because the fastball will not be something that he features heavily. The breaking ball, the change-up, that's going to be what he primarily uses, the breaking balls, I should say. I think now last year the primary fastball was the sinker. He really reduced the four-seamer. I heard this was I think he was recording on a Friday and he pitches on Friday. I heard when he was throwing his bullpens, he still hadn't even thrown his sinker. He was focusing on the four-seamer and the secondaries. So I don't know what their exact plan is as far as fastball usage. I think it's fascinating. I do think there's some tweaks that they want to make. His fastballs get crushed. I'm very curious to see how it plays out. It's just a different way. For me, I have to shut off part of my brain where I'm like, but the fastball, but the fastball, and kind of look at it through a different lens and understand that, okay, he can thrive in different ways. How are they going to kind of maximize this guy? They're excited about him. They think they have a potential front of the rotation piece here. And a lot of the rest of the rotation is guys returning, and we talk about some of them individually. I'm going to start with Imanaga because his first season was so fun, exciting. Last year, a nightmare at times. So what went wrong here? How much of this is just attributable to injury? And how are they hoping that he can kind of course correct this year? Because here he is again in Minaga, back again. The contract situation kind of was strange but then got resolved. So how are they helping him to sort of maybe course correct for 2026? Yeah, I think the injury was a major issue. he wasn't fully trusting that hamstring I don't think he was ever fully right in the second half was he healthy? Sure. Were his mechanics? Was he able to move the way he normally does? Was it impacting him? I think that's pretty much everyone agrees that he just wasn't himself in the second half. It's the case for so many players I think if you have an injury mid-season sometimes especially the mechanics of it all like trying to figure out everything. It's like, okay, figuring that out in the middle of the season can be a real pain. Some players can do it, but sometimes both the coaching staff and the player just can't figure it out or don't have enough time to really work on it and get the reps to be like, okay, let's spend two weeks just doing this and then we'll get, and that'll fix everything or whatever it may be. It's hard sometimes to get it done in the middle of the season. I think there was real work done in the winter. I think he trained slightly differently. I think the mechanics are back to where they want them to be. He threw, he maxed out at 94-1 in his last outing. It was only two innings, so I don't want to take too much away from it because it's a shorter burst. Still, he wasn't doing that even if he had a two-inning outing in the second half last year. There were outings where he was at like 89, barely touching 90. Is touching 94 like a huge deal? I mean, velocity-wise, no. But for him, the way his fastball works, he's not like a super hard thrower, but he's got a super unique fastball for a seamer. He needs to, A, have command of it, and B, that extra tick or two is huge for him. And if he's averaging around 93, 93.5 with his fastball, does he repeat 2024? I think that would be a little bit of a surprise, for me at least. But I think he's going to be better than last season. It's assuming help. He just looks so much better out there. And I think that extra velo, both in reality it's helpful and mentally it's helpful. Yeah, I think one of the big questions about the Cubs last year and to some extent this year too is just, who do you really want starting game one of a postseason series? Is it Matthew Boyd? Do you feel that high on Boyd? Is it Cabrera? Does he take that leap, get to that next level? Does Imanaga rebound? And obviously last year they suffered a couple of big blows in the rotation because they lost Justin Steele to internal brace surgery in April. And then Cade Horton, who had a huge rookie year and was a real success, had his rib fracture and was unavailable in the postseason. So let's talk about those last two guys. Steele, what is his timeline if it doesn't get derailed by talking to Grok too much? When will he be back? And then... You've got to intervene on that. That way lies maybe literal madness. Horton had the ERA of an ace, but then the deeper and deeper you looked under the hood, the FIP was worse than that, and then the XERA was worse than that, and then the XFIP was worse than that. Don't go too deep into that. That'll lead to madness as well. Yeah, the further you go from the ERA into the peripherals, the worse the story gets, and obviously not a big strikeout guy. So what is the reasonable expectation for him in his second full season? And then when will Steele be back? So with Steele, they're not giving like an exact timeline. They're kind of being like before the All-Star break is the aim. I think it could be May. I think it could be June. I wouldn't be shocked if it's pretty early. But it's not going to be opening day for sure. I don't expect him back in April. Everything seems on target. I think they're really happy with their depth. and they've observed other guys trying to rush back that felt fine, but they rushed back and they just didn't look as good as they used to. I think Sandy Alcantara is a really good example of that. They're going to be patient with him, and that's part of the reason. They just want depth. They felt they were short. The depth crushed them in the postseason, the lack of depth, and they really wanted to add. While they're not all amazing starters, they have really solid depth, the bunch of good, solid guys that you could trust to make a start here and there. Colin Ray, prime among them, Javier Assad. So they'll be patient with Steele, but everything is on track, and he seems fine, and I think he'll be assuming no setbacks. He should be ready by May or June. I'm really high on Kate Horton. Everything you said is true. I think as the season went on, the numbers got better and better. his strikeout rate improved as the season went on. And there were moments where you could see it's like, oh, he's learning how to really use his arsenal. He's got a good changeup now. He's got, I mean, the bread and butter or the slider and the cut right fastball. Two, you know, really good pitches. And then he's got the sinker that he uses. He's got a changeup that he uses. He'll mix in the curveball. I think he knows how to use all his pitches really well. And he handles struggles incredibly well. He's so poised on the mound. All these things that, you know, the numbers don't show, he's got. Like, he's going to be one of those guys that you're like, oh, there's a, that's a tough SOB out there. He doesn't back down from anyone. He's got the mental aspect down. He struggled in a start in Houston. And he just, like, that so easily could have been, like, a moment where he's doubting himself. Do I belong up here? Have they figured me out? No, he used it as a learning moment, and I don't think he had a bad outing after that. I do believe the strikeouts are going to jump up. I believe he's really learned how to use his pitches. And early on, it was just like he was trying to survive out there, and now he's kind of figured everything out. And it happened at a pretty quick pace. And he doesn't walk guys. He attacks them. He will rely on his defense. I think he knows how to do everything out there. I think he got all the tools to be one of the best pitchers in the NL I really high on him going into this season I not sure if he compete for a Cy Young now but I think we going to be talking about him competing for Cy Youngs in the future Well, if the additions to the rotation were modest, potentially impactful, but modest, this is a practically fully new bullpen, right? So you got Phil Mayton, you got Hunter Harvey, you got Jacob Webb, you have Hobie Milner. We love a Hobie on this podcast. So we do. We love Hobies. There aren't enough Hobies. There should be more people named Hobies. But there are multiple baseball Hobies, which is maybe more Hobies than I would expect. Yeah. Yeah. They are overrepresented, I think. Never known a real Hobie. But walk us through this group, both the guys they've added and then how they're going to slot in with the guys that they had around last year. Yeah, so most of the bullpen is kind of locked in. It's like all the guys that have major league deals, you mentioned most of them, I believe. Caleb Bilbar is the other one, one of the few impending free agents who came back. So the two lefties are him and Milner. Daniel Palencia, the only guy that has an option, will be the closer to start the season. Hunter Harvey is one of those guys where I think you talk to any of the coaches, even the teammates, They're like, if this guy's healthy, he's going to be a really good reliever, a key part of this group. Maton's the veteran that you're like, how does he do it? Oh, he's just really good. Okay, he's just going to keep going out there putting up two, five ERAs every year. Some of these guys are just vets that just show up and put together solid relief seasons. And then there's going to be some surprise. I don't know if it's Colin Snyder. I don't know if it's going to be Corbin Martin. Colin Snyder is up. His velo is up again. It's back to where it was during his breakout season with Seattle two years ago. Ryan Rolison, who's a lefty that has an option, is up like two or three miles per hour. And they've added this sweeper to his arsenal that multiple people have told me they're really impressed with. I don't think he's going to start the season with the bullpen, but I'm pretty sure he's going to impact the bullpen unless what we're seeing is just a spike in velo that's going to go back down. Someone told me this, and it kind of stuck with me. They said, you know, years ago it was just like the bullpen was just like there were bodies. It was like they just tried to bring in as many people as they could in the hope that they hit on a few of them. They feel like they've really fine-tuned their process. They have a lot of people that put a lot of work into really mining NRIs and then digging in deep, and they feel like they have a pretty deep group. and I think that the initial group's almost set with one opening. Probably Colin Snyder has the advantage, but it's not even the end of February yet. So let's see where they are in four weeks. But I think it's a solid group and they've done a good job of so many impending free agents and a group that really came together at the end, losing a lot of those guys and having a lot of question marks. outside of going and getting a no-doubt closer, I think they really did a strong job without breaking the bank to rebuild this bullpen. We'll see if it works out. I never feel comfortable predicting what a bullpen is going to do, but I do believe that this is a solid group to start out with some legitimate depth options. We'll see who opts out and things like that, how much of the depth sticks around as far as former big leaguers, And if any of the kids emerge, you know, Porter Hodge is another name of a guy that was dominant two years ago, struggled last year. They believe they've tweaked some things. And, you know, it's all about command with him because the stuff's nasty. And the payroll is eighth right now via roster resource. I guess one way that they could perhaps spend without raising the payroll in the short term is to extend some players. And that was, I think, the first of your burning questions about the Cubs as spring training was opening. And you mentioned Horner, Happ, Suzuki, guys heading into free agency. We talked about Kelly, too, and then the younger guys as well. And, of course, PCA addressed the topic of an extension, too. So it is extension season, or it's about to be peak extension season. Are you expecting the Cubs to partake? I usually bet against it, but I think if we're going to focus on anybody, it would be Pico Armstrong or Nico Horner. The next free agent class doesn't look great. The Cubs, I mean, the best free agents may all be on the Cubs. Yeah. I think they should be aggressive in trying to bring Nico Horner back. I talked about earlier how much they value defense. He's an elite defensive second baseman. And when you talk about clubhouse presence and what you want a player, how you want a player to behave and set an example for young players, I think Nico Horner fits that to a tee. I'm always impressed with the way people talk about him, that he's just like kind of this ideal idealized player as far as he brings everything to the table. He just is not a power hitter. So he's never going to be a superstar. But he does a lot of things really well. I think he's the type of guy like, yeah, find a way to bring him back. Obviously, there's a limit when it comes to the cost, but there's got to be. I'd like to think there's some way to figure something out there because I think it makes a lot of sense to bring him back. Because this isn't what these players that are impending free agents kind of look at it as like, let's focus on this year because we have a chance to do something special. I think the Cubs know that they have a nice mix of youth and vets. may as well lean into that and keep the guys and identify who you're keeping around and who you're, which kids you're, you know, you're going to integrate into the future and which veterans you want to keep around. I think Nico should be part of that. And Pete, like, he's just been very open about the fact that he's willing to do this. I think he's a very unique player. I think he's the type of player that you want your fans to kind of, like, you want them to grow together, right? Like the fans fall in love with him and he stays for a decade and he's on billboards and they're doing a lot of winning together. I think it would have been easier to sign him last year, obviously, in the sense that the price was lower last year. I'm not sure if he would have agreed to something, but I think the numbers were like more Ezekiel Tovar extension. And now we're talking a little closer to Corbin Carroll extension. I don't think he's, you know, he hasn't had a season like Corbin Carroll has put together. So obviously people will disagree that he's worth that. But I do think, you know, ultimately that could make some sense. And I'm sure that's what his agent and Pete would be angling for. All right. Well, we have come to our closing question. What would constitute success for the Chicago Cubs in 2026? Yeah, they need to win the division this year. No more falling behind the Brewers. Win the division. I think it's success. They're going to tell you it's winning the World Series. For me, if they lose to the Dodgers and the NLCS and it's competitive, I don't know if you'd call that. I don't love calling ending the season losing a success, but I think you'd understand that. It's like, okay, they were competitive with the stacked team and took them to the brink, something like that. They believe they can win the World Series. They believe they have that opportunity in front of them. So I think for them, this is a World Series roster. And I see that. I agree. I think, you know, baseball is weird. The Blue Jays took the Dodgers to the brink. I don't think the Dodgers are unbeatable. So this is absolutely a World Series caliber roster. I just don't like predicting that you're going to beat the Dodgers just because it feels like I'm being dumb. Well, I guess if PCA is to be believed, though, then those Dodgers fans, they'll all be just there to take pictures. They aren't even paying attention. And so if they win the World Series, they won't even notice. Yeah. All right. Well, thank you, as always, Sahadev. We highly recommend his work at The Athletic. You can also hear him on other podcasts, specifically the one that he hosts, Northside Territory, part of the Foul Territory Network. Thank you, as always, Sahadev. Thanks so much for having me. Take care. And after a quick break, we'll switch over to the American League Central to talk to one of Sahadev's colleagues, Zach Meisel, about the Cleveland Guardians. Did Richard Love Lady ever strike a Taylor Tegarine? Who had more? What isn't Kendall or Russell Martin? What if Shoghya finally stopped with all the work of lawyer? What would you do if Mike Trump just showed up being a lawyer? Or is it Foyer? Find out on Effectively Wild. Find out on Effectively Wild. All right, we are back, and we are joined by Zach Meisel, who covers the Guardians and MLB for The Athletic, and is speaking to us right now from a game between the Guardians and the Cubs, the team we just previewed. Such serendipity and synchronicity. Welcome, Zach. We could have saved time and energy, and Sahadov and I could have done this together. We could have given you insights as we watched these players and the fate of their careers rest on this one single Cactus League affair. Yes, it's true. Sadly, Sahadev is not at the ballpark currently. Or, yes, we could have done a combined preview and it would have been much more efficient. But hopefully the crowd noise will cooperate with us. And I started the Tigers preview that we did recently by joking about how, well, really, weren't the 2024 and 2025 Tigers seasons exactly the same at the end? They won 86-87 games. They won a wild card. They went on to play the Guardians in the playoffs. How could you even tell the difference between those seasons? The punchline, of course, being that the trajectory was completely different. And I could repeat the same joke about the Guardians because, of course, they repeated as champions of the AL Central. They went on to play the Tigers, but totally different trajectory this time, too. They were under 500 at the All-Star break. They were well over down the stretch and pulled off a historic comeback to erase the largest deficit ever erased in a division race, only to drop two games to the Tigers and lose in the wildcard series. So take us through the highs and lows there. And for the fans, for the players, for the organization, how do people think of that historic comeback, given that it was thwarted so soon after by the very team that the Guardians overtook? Yeah, you know, it's almost as if they were bored by nearly going wire to wire in the AL Central in 2024. So they thought, how can we make this more of a challenge? Let's fall 15 and a half games behind. Let's go through a 10-game skid. Let's lose 9-10. Let's have a couple of our pitchers possibly, maybe, allegedly bet against themselves. Okay, maybe they didn't plan for that part. But when you got to the end of it and you reflected, it left a better taste in fans' mouth than I think maybe it could have or should have. It was like a four-week fever dream there at the end. and covered up what was a really miserable, wretched season for a long time. You know, if it wasn't the play on the field that was uninspiring and frustrating, it was some maybe just lack of movement. Like a lot of guys who weren't performing got long leashes, whether it was Carlos Santana, Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and then you had the alleged gambling or rooster fighting, whatever, that will end up being was a black cloud over the franchise. They traded Shane Beaver at the deadline. They considered trading Stephen Kwan at the deadline. They were ready to contemplate trading Emmanuel Klasse at the deadline. So the season had no designs of ending up at a very similar spot as it had a year earlier. And it's just honestly, it was just confusing, I think. But what they did and maybe the least confusing part about it and what fueled them in September was the pitching, and in particular the starting pitching. And that's been the foundation of this franchise for a decade or more, and it's the thing they're going to hang their hat on again in 2026. The other thing I want to get to the pitching, I don't want to give the pitching short shrift because I think we had maybe diminished expectations of it to a certain degree coming into the year. And you're right to say that it really carried them and they have a number of standouts here. But it does feel silly to not start with the guy who not only remains sort of steady Eddie through all of that, but is arguably their only major offseason move, which is just remaining in the Jose Ramirez business. I can't say that I blame them. I think I'd want to be in that business if I were them too. Talk to us about the extension, what sort of necessitated it, and if there's anything left for Ramirez to do, because I think we can maybe put to bed the notion that he is underrated. I think people have properly rated him. They have found him to be appropriately superlative. He put up another six-win, almost six-and-a-half-win season. So talk to us about the extension, and then what, if anything, is left for Ramirez to achieve. Yeah, he burst onto the scene at 20. It was September of 2013. He was wearing the number 62, and his primary task was to pinch run. And that Cleveland team similarly made a wild surge to the finish line, claimed a playoff spot. They were bounced in the wild card game, but he played a role in that. Then he struggled for a couple years, finding his footing in the big leagues, trying to fend up Francisco Lindor at shortstop. And then in 2016, he had a breakout season, and he signed his first extension. And it was very much a, hey, I need any financial security I can get. I didn't come from much, and I finally have some leverage. And even though this is very clearly well below market, especially if I turn out to be a perennial all-star, I'm willing to take whatever I can get. And then he really turned it up. And then 2017, 2018, you know, those were sort of the beginnings of what we know now. And a guy who could hit 30 home runs and hit 40 doubles and draw a bunch of walks and was just an all-around, well-rounded MVP candidate. And then he got to 2022 in the spring that year, and he had two years left on his deal. And he badly wanted to stay. I think the Guardians agreed they would have loved to keep him. But the franchise had never paid a superstar to stick around for the duration. And in Cleveland, the name CeCe Sabathia and Cliff Lee and Jim Tomey and Manny Ramirez and Albert Bell, like all those guys, they were either traded because they couldn't agree to terms on a long-term deal or they left in free agency, and Ramirez was going to be another one. You know, they had trades lined up with the Blue Jays and the Padres. And Jose said, look, I just want a deal. And he really forced the issue. It was right before opening day. They were boarding the plane to Kansas City out of Arizona. And the flight was delayed a little bit so that he could finish his deal and kind of walked on the plane almost like Leo DiCaprio in the Wolf of Wall Street saying, I'm not going anywhere. And so I think this is a long way of saying this is his third extension in Cleveland, and it's the one that still looks on the surface as, wow, you've got a superstar who's still producing prime-level numbers, and we've seen what Kyle Tucker got, even Alex Bregman. And it seems below market, but for the first time, it's the one that maybe you can tilt it toward Jose a bit because he's going to be getting paid until his 40th birthday. And so, you know, on one hand, I want to say who knows what kind of numbers he'll be producing in his late 30s. But on the other hand, I see how consistent he is year after year. And if there was anybody for this franchise to invest in from the ages of 20 to 40, I think they picked the right guy. And as great as he is, a lineup cannot live on Ramirez alone. and the lineup was not the Guardian's strength. They had an 88 WRC plus last year, which was the third worst in baseball, better than only the Rockies and the Pirates. And the Pirates, bless their hearts, they at least tried to upgrade their lineup. They made some additions this offseason and the Guardians did not. They just did not do much of anything, really, as Meg alluded to. The only guys they signed to major league free agent contracts were a trio of relievers. and the bullpen has not really been the biggest problem for the Guardians. They did pick up Reese Hoskins on a minor league deal, and presumably he'll be in the lineup, but he's the only new face. And it's just gotten to the point now where the payroll has dropped to 29th. Only the Marlins are spending less on players this season, and the lack of investment in this roster year after year, we talk about the team's success, We sing the praises of the player development and the front office just maneuvering around the restrictions. But this team is just at the top of the list of, as you often say, you're just like playing on hard mode. Like you don't have to make it this hard for yourself. You don't have to move Stephen Kwan to center field if you just sign a center fielder. Go get a good outfielder for once in your life. So tell us a little bit about the inactivity, because this was just one of the quietest off seasons. And I'm guessing Guardians fans are happy that the team has remained competitive as long as it has, but have to be frustrated with this offseason malaise. Yeah, you know, this is a risk averse organization in a lot of ways, and they're almost scared of their own shadow. They're terrified of certain free agent signings that have come back to haunt them. You know, last season alone, Paul Seawalt didn't work. Carlos Santana didn't work. They've had a lot of those. Eddie Rosario, Domingo Santana. You know, you can see what sort of aisles they're typically shopping in in place. You know, it's stuff that has mold growing on it before it even gets back to your kitchen. They've made some trades that, you know, Junior Camonero is, you know, ready to hit 60 home runs with Tampa at a really young age. And he was in Cleveland's system, and they traded him for Tobias Myers, who blossomed elsewhere. So there's a lot of risks that they're hesitant to take, and I say that to set up the fact that there was also a ton of risk in banking on a bunch of rookies coming and saving the day, and that's what they're doing. And it's going to be Chase the Lauder, and it's going to be George Valera, and it's going to be CJ Cephas, and it's going to be Travis Bazzana. And these guys are high draft picks. In Bazzana's case, number one overall. They are top prospects. They have been on many top 100 lists. In certain cases, DeLauder and Bazzana, top 25 or so. But to just assume that they're all going to stay healthy and to assume that they're going to avoid early career struggles seems pretty naive to me. I can think highly of them and think there's more for Bo Naylor to scratch and think that there might still be something with Brian Rocchio or Angel Martinez. But it's just there's a lot of if this and if this and if this. And, oh, by the way, if all of that prospers, there's also risk on the pitching side. There's not a ton of depth there. So it's somewhere between negligence and naivete. I think the payroll stuff, it's inexcusable. It's also tied to the fact that there's going to be a transition in ownership coming relatively soon, and they don't want anything uncomfortable on the books for that. So it's just unfortunate because this is a team that has won three of the last four AL Central titles, And yet their downfall each time has been that the offense isn't good enough and that they don't have enough thump. And their answer this offseason, when they should have ample payroll flexibility, because Ramirez is the only one making substantial money, and he is now deferring quite a bit of that. Their answer is Reese Hoskins on a minor league deal and a lot of kids. Let's talk about some of those kids, because I share your distaste for the strategy. I have trepidation about the health, but also some of these guys do seem quite promising. And maybe no one encapsulates all of those concerns simultaneously more than DeLauder, who I wasn't ready to see in center field in the postseason, you know, if I had been trying to ease him in. I don't know that that would have been my first instinct. So talk to us about sort of what they're expecting from him defensively. Where are they going to play him? And then, you know, how are they thinking about helping him stay healthy? Because part of the trepidation was, my God, that's a high-pressure assignment in a very big situation. But part of it was this guy just cannot stay healthy. It seems like there might be some risk throwing him out into the outfield. So talk to us about DeLauter. Well, DeLauter's injury history has put Stephen Kwan's hamstrings in more danger because Kwon is experimenting in center field this spring and would not surprise me at all if he was the opening day and everyday center fielder eventually. And that is in part to protect the lotter and give him less ground to cover in the corners, maybe some days at DH. And Kwon, who has a history of hamstring trouble, is going to be the one that has to shoulder that burden now. I think it's as simple as just being overly cautious. DeLauder has already had tightness in his legs this spring, and the good thing here is he's willing to communicate to the training staff if something just feels the slightest bit off, and then they say, okay, let's give it a couple days and make sure that this is completely eradicated before you go back out there. So that's how they're going to have to live. It's also easier to live that way in spring training, and then you hope that being that careful allows you to play more consistently in the regular season when there are stakes. But, you know, unfortunately for a guy who is hit at every level, and just as you said, his major league debut came in a playoff elimination game. So he can certainly, there's a level of challenge that he can handle and that the organization believes he can handle. And so unfortunately it's this one thing, and it's a big thing, it's health, that's going to cloud this. Not just a debut in a playoff game, but a debut when he hadn't played in any game for months and hadn't played center field for an extremely long time, right? So that was really something. They really threw him into the fire there, but I guess it speaks to their confidence in him. Tell us about Travis Bazzana, who it occurs to me because we were just talking about Pete Crow Armstrong. If you could kind of combine their skill sets, you'd have a heck of a player, perhaps. But the concern about Bazzana is the power, and is the patience something of a mirage? Is he one of the classic, we'll get the bat knocked out of his hands at the big league level, and thus that on-base ability won't translate? how do you think that will work and when? I have a question. How soon can a number one overall draft pick be considered underrated? And it's not even so much his shortcomings or him flying under the radar. It's just Nick Kurtz is fantastic. And Connor Griffin is a super prospect. And J.J. Weatherholt looks like he's primed to have a rookie of the year type season. Jack Caglione, we've seen Chase Burns, we've seen that's a really good draft class, is it not? That's just part of the top ten and it's led to Bazzana, who's been solid, okay has had some injury issues it's easy to lose him in the shuffle, and so I think for him, the season is simple he's probably going to start a triple A and if he hits, he'll get called up, because they absolutely need him at second base, and And then it's just a matter of growing accustomed to the big leagues and sticking. And there's a lot of evidence that he'll at least be fine, that the floor is pretty solid because he's got great plate discipline, good contact ability. There's some pop in the bat. There are certainly questions defensively. There are questions about his passiveness at the plate. But that's stuff he can work on. And it doesn't have to be a finished product. But if you're the Guardians, you're probably sick of hearing about all the guys you didn't pick. And the one guy you did pick could really elevate your floor this season if he can just be a solid player. You talked about the way that the Lauders' presence on the roster might impact Quan defensively. I'm curious sort of what your expectations are for him at the plate because he's doing this weird thing. Even year seasons go very well for him from a plate production perspective. Odd year seasons, pretty poor. So maybe we can just chalk it up to that and say that he's going to have a great 2026. But he dipped slightly below league average last year from a WRC Plus perspective. He did play 156 games. So kind of where do you see this settling for him? It's actually easy to explain the even year thing because he grew up a Giants fan. There you go. So I think I'm not sure there's another hitter who's going to benefit as much from the ABS. This guy is among the league leaders every year and called strikes that shouldn't have been called strikes. Now, he still has to have the authority at the plate to capitalize on those counts. It's something that he was better at in 2024, and it explains the 14 home runs in 122 games, which was, you know, his slugging percentage was up, I think, like 55 points. That regressed a little bit last season. He was banged up. He wouldn't use it as an excuse. He had a bum wrist for a while. He was getting cortisone shots. As a gold-glove left fielder, the floor was high. You know, this is a guy who makes a ton of contact, doesn't strike out, hits for somewhere between an all-right average and a great average, and reaches base at a solid clip. Like, that's a good player. I do wonder what happens when he shifts to center. If he's a perfectly capable center fielder, that's a huge lift for this team. How can he make sure that those even-year seasons are the norm and that he's not dipping to league average? And that's doubly imperative for him, who he's got two years left until he can hit free agency, and for the Guardians, who just need to squeeze every bit of potential offense out of this that they can. So I'll be curious to see him challenge more than maybe any player in baseball and, you know, try to find some, like, what is the offensive profile? Can you be a guy who hits 15 to 20 home runs? Can you hold up for a full season? Do you need to be more aggressive at the plate and not worry so much about just making contact or fighting off pitches? He always talks about finding more opportunities to get his ace wing off. Well, if he's going to have more counts go his way, he might get more chances to capitalize. So he's a very interesting player to me in 2026 because all the evidence we have points to like there is a really, really good player in there. And I know he's a two-time All-Star. He's had some seasons pushing five or, but it feels like we haven't quite seen the full picture of him. Yeah, and he's been such a superlative left fielder that you could figure that he won't embarrass himself out there, but he'll be compared to a different class of fielders, a different cohort at that position. And he has, what, 31 innings, I think, of career major league experience at the position. I'd ask you how it's going, but he is making his spring debut in center field as we speak. And you're not watching because you're talking to us, or at least you're not watching with your eyes directly. So sorry about that. I wanted to ask you about Gabriel Arias because we've heard a lot from Guardians fans about their frustration with him. And not just the overall line, but just the way he arrives at it and the approach and the combination of just a ton of strikeouts and not many walks and just really kind of a strange setup at the plate and just looking kind of outclassed at times. There's been a lot written about that. So he is just 26. In fact, we are speaking to you on Gabriel Arias' 26th birthday. So happy birthday, Gabriel. Will it be a happy year for him, do you think, or happier at least? He has the profile that I feel is the most inflexible among big league hitters. If you look at the walk and the strikeout rates year over year, it's not much change. A little bit on the walk department jumped from 3.7% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, but the strikeout rate went from 33% to 34%. So it's going to be a low average, low on base percentage guy who the slugging percentage is dragged down by the fact that he just doesn't get enough hits. There is power. He hits, I would say, five to seven majestic opposite field home runs per year. But those are the ones, you know, it's like playing around a golf and you're getting double bogey after triple bogey. It's a nightmare. And then you birdie the 18th hole and you say, all right, fine, I'll come back tomorrow. And that's what Gabriel Arias is. You see dazzling plays defensively. You see one opposite field moonshot per month. and you think, well, if he can do that, there's got to be a productive player in here. But we've seen this for three-plus seasons now, and I think he kind of is who he is, whether he's standing further off the plate than any hitter in baseball or moving back a couple inches closer to the plate and dropping his hands. It's a lot of adjustments that have led to similar results. And so between him and Brian Rocchio up the middle, they're sort of fighting for survival and one of them will emerge when Travis Bazzana comes up and unseats the other one. Wow, I feel like we're really bringing Guardians fans down here, and I want to pivot to something. They're not down to begin with. Well, I don't know. I mean, maybe they forgot. Maybe they just have been thinking about Jose Ramirez all offseason. Would you blame them? That would make me happy, yeah. Yeah. Okay, well, maybe we can pivot to something that might make them happy. Kyle Manzardo hit for power last year. That seems good. What did he do? He just hacked. He also added a lot of muscle over the winter. This has been a talking point. I feel like this spring across camps is how many pounds of muscle can you actually add? Yeah. That is believable or accurate. Yeah. Some of the claims seem dubious, I will say. Yeah. So if we thought that Manzardo's 14 pounds of muscle was really impressive, do the Guardians still think that's impressive when they hear reports from other camps about maybe 40-plus pounds? I don't know what's real and what's not. He definitely looks physically stronger. Maybe that boosts the home run total from 27 to 37. Maybe it makes him just able to hold up over the course of 162 games better which is what was the original goal of adding muscle for him This is a guy who throughout his minor league career had really healthy walk rates, actually made a lot of contact and wasn't a big strikeout guy. And then last season, you know, the strikeout rate was tolerable. It wasn't terrible. But I think the 9% walk rate could increase. and then if that happens, he's probably getting more pitches to his liking that he could do damage on. So I think this is a kid who's going to have his age 25 season and showcase what he can do. And maybe Reese Hoskins and if Chase DeLauter is healthy and just the lineup overall is more formidable and he doesn't have Arias and Bo Naylor hitting behind him, maybe that helps as well. but definitely a guy who seems poised to be a legit middle-of-the-order threat. And speaking of guys who had big power years, big bounce back at the plate for Austin Hedges, who slugged 277. So five dingers, not too shabby. I kid because I love, but really he had a 51 WRC+, which was his highest since 2018. And the Guardians just can't quit him. There is a mutual love fest here, and it's hard to blame them because the guy got 180 plate appearances, which that's the unfortunate part of playing Austin Hitches, the innings behind the plate. That's what you want him for, and he was worth 1.2 war in limited playing time, despite not hitting at all. I mean, hitting well by his standards, but he was fifth in the majors in framing runs, according to Fangrass, and the four guys ahead of him each had at least twice as many innings caught. The other Austin was right ahead of him with more than 1,000 innings, and Austin Hedges sub-500 and yet still is racking up that framing value. So has he said anything about the challenge system? Again, the consensus is that the challenge system is not going to have a huge hit for framing value, but I wonder whether he has addressed that or whether he has any thoughts. Yeah, we had a long conversation about it earlier in the spring, and certainly a defensive-minded catcher is going to maybe have some subjective opinions on this because it's such a, I don't want to say a threat to their jobs or what they do well, but it is something he spent a lot of time this winter thinking about. Framing is still valuable, right? If you can deter a hitter from challenging, then there's some more than that. and so to him it's adjusting, it's knowing the strike zone as well as possible. You know, this guy is born to be a coach. He knows that I think there is intrinsic value in that that keeps the Guardians interested in his services, even if it's a rough WRC+, even if it's a rough WRC+, after he more than doubles his WRC+, from the previous couple of years. Yeah, the rebound. And I don't know, were pitchers scared of him last year? He had a 10% walk rate. But I think more than anything, he's a guy you'd want on your side as teams navigate this new frontier and try to find a little competitive advantages. He seems like a safe bet to be leading the charge and finding ways it could benefit them or making sure Bo Naylor and David Fry have a good handle on what to expect. So it might not be huge. It's $4 million, this contract, and it's more than that. It's just is he worth the roster spot? And for the Guardians, that's been unequivocally a yes for the last few years, and they'll tell you the one year of the last six in which they didn't have him was the year that they didn't make the playoffs, and they hear they had some issues in the clubhouse. So it's a match made in heaven, I guess. Another guy who has caught for the Guardians, though not with the same skill as Austin Hedges, is David Fry. And he's really been through it. Two Tommy John surgeries, fractured face and nose. He was such an excellent story for the Guardians back in 2024. What's the hope for him? How's his health? How's he holding up? I hope David Fry is okay. He's healthy, and he says his face has never been prettier. So even a Tarek Skubal 99-mile-an-hour fastball, I guess, can't interfere with that. Yeah, I mean, he went from player to be named later in a trade for J.C. Mejia to an all-star in 2024, which might wind up as a fantastic trivia question one day. But there's something in there. I don't know that he can replicate what he did for a few months that season, but I certainly think he can be better than he was last year. The walk-and-strikeout rates went in completely opposite and wrong directions, and he's going to be catching, and he's going to be playing first base, and they would love if he could occasionally play right field. And more than anything, this team just does not have right-handed bats. Reese Hoskins helps that a little bit. But Fry is kind of the wild card where if you can get a capable right-handed hitter who is that versatile defensively, they desperately need that. Well, we've talked about DeLauder. We've talked about Bazzana. I'm curious, you know, of the guys who they have on the position player side who are sort of floating around the high minors, Are there any who strike you as likely to make their debuts this year, other than Bazzana, granted, that could be called upon if there's injury or underperformance elsewhere? I have no idea what to make of Juan Brito. I think there's something in there. And I'm not a scout, but there's something to like about a switch hitter who, he's versatile defensively. I'm not sure he's adequate anywhere. defensively, but he's intriguing because it looked like he was growing into some power, and then last season just was riddled with injuries, and they were freak injuries, but painful injuries, like tore his hamstring, and just didn't have that year, and it's a critical, it was age 23 season, he would have made his major league debut, and that all gets wiped away and you have to start from scratch the next season. So, you know, if they ultimately play him at second base once a week, third base once a week, first base once a week, DH once a week, and right field once a week, something like that, I just feel like a switch hitter who can hit a ton of doubles and maybe there's like 15 to 20 home run power in there. Historically, through the minors, a really good walk-in strikeout rate. I just think there's something useful in there. I just don't know how he fits. But he's a guy I would certainly think would debut. And if he does hit, I'm confident they'll find a spot for him. Well, let's talk about the pitching. You go to the roster resource depth chart, and you do still see Luis Ortiz and Manuel Classe listed on the restricted list, which technically is where they are. They will not be a factor for the Guardians this season on the field. I would venture to say, but tell us a little bit about how that whole saga has played in the clubhouse. Seems like somehow the team rallied around that adversity last year and played better without them and pitched better without them, despite all the challenges that it introduced, but all the uncertainty, not knowing what exactly they had done, And then subsequently, when a lot of information came out, how was that all received? And is this still looming in some way over a lot of the former teammates of Class A and Ortiz, as this remains a major story and will probably be a bigger one when that trial starts, which is scheduled for this spring? Yeah, it certainly made me a legal expert. So if anyone needs someone to represent them, just call Meisel and Meisel Law. I think it's interesting when Ortiz was first placed on the restricted list in early July, there was confusion. I think the Guardians didn't know the extent of what was happening. They barely knew Ortiz, who the team had acquired in a trade over the offseason. And so it was shocking, but it was just like incomplete. There was a lot of missing information. I think when Emmanuel Klasse joined him on the restricted list a few weeks later, that's when the anger and frustration, betrayal, all of those emotions came flooding in. And it just so happened that was the week of the trade deadline. So it was a lot for that team to digest. And, you know, that's why when Stephen Kwan was ultimately not traded, the team came in the next day. There was a huge collective sigh of relief. They cleared out the lockers for Ortiz and Class A, and they essentially said, look, the people in here, Dotsu are moving forward with. Let's block out all the other distractions, and look what happened. They overcame that massive deficit in the division. So I think at this point, there's still anger and frustration. There's a feeling of wanting it to all be fully passed to them, and that's not going to happen until there's resolution from the trial. There's also a possibility now that the trial gets moved to the fall, which I think I know the front office also wants clarity on if they're going to have to, if they're required to pay these pitchers. Everybody would like to get to the finish line here and whatever the outcome is one way or the other. But it's definitely, it's what last season will be remembered for probably more than anything. I think that's also why it was a successful rallying cry is it was the team saying, hey, let's try to make sure that, you know, if we come back and win this division, that'll be the story. Obviously, the gambling stuff will be part of it, but it will be look what this team did in spite of instead of this was the black cloud that was our downfall. You know, those guys aren't talked about in the clubhouse now, but I do know that there's interest in what's happening. And as each, you know, a new indictment or a new motion or filing comes out, there's a little chatter. And I think a lot of it is just trying to figure out, okay, what might happen here? And what might, you know, how can we get to the end, the finish line? Because guys didn't, you know, you didn't know the extent of, especially with Emmanuel Klasse. Now we know he may have been gambling on pitches in the playoffs. That's a new development, and you feel that level of betrayal, and you want to completely forget all of this ever happened if you're the players. So it's a tough situation. It's also no team has gone through this. This is sort of new territory here. So I think it's a lot for everybody in that room to stomach. Let's bring good news. Let's bring uplifting news. Let's talk about this rotation, and we can maybe start with the guy who we have at the top of it, Gavin Williams, and the year he had. But tell us about this group as a whole, sort of who is the depth beyond this core five, and what are you expecting from them this year? Fancrafts projects this rotation to be 25th best in baseball. Hey, he's getting some good last year. This is a good group. Is that surprising to you guys at all? Well, you know, it's the old, save old story, I guess, about guardians and projections. But, you know, not a lot of aces here, exactly. No, but this is, Ben, I'm trying. Compared to the offense, yes. I'm trying. Please proceed, Zach. All right, there's a lot of potential for variance here. We've seen Tanner Bybee finish second in the rookie of the year balloting. We've seen him look like an ace the year after that. And last season he was pretty average. He was very frustrated. But in the month of September he had a 130 ERA and he felt like he needed that to go into the offseason, to figure out how to do that for six months instead of one month. I think Gavin Williams turned a corner last season and took what was, you know, he was the first round pick, the top prospect, the guy with electric stuff. and finally realized, hey, maybe I don't need to just chase a strikeout every time I get to a two-strikeout count. And for four months, that strategy worked, and he attacked the zone, and he prospered. So you're relying on those two remaining front of the rotation guys, and then you're looking for the breakout. Is it Joey Cantillo, who's got one of the best change-ups in the sport and has elite extension that makes a 92-mile-an-hour fastball look like 97? Is it Slade Ciccone, who has a year under his belt with Cleveland's pitching wizards and has some intriguing stuff, but there are questions on it? Maybe he would be great as a reliever who throws 98 instead of a starter who throws 94, 95. Can Parker Messick, another guy with a high floor but not flashy stuff. You're looking for three guys to be mid-rotation or close to it. between Ciccone, Cantillo, Logan Allen, Parker Messick. And there's not a lot of wiggle room here if there's an injury and then there's regression, right? So I could see the division where it's a really solid group, and we saw it in September. They rolled out a six-man rotation, and all six pitched great. I can also see where someone gets hurt. Cantillo doesn't take the leap forward, or Ciccone just maybe isn't cut out to be that number three pitcher, and maybe this gets ugly. They have some intriguing arms lower, but they don't have the dazzling option at AAA just waiting in the wings. So I think it will be better than 25th, but I would bet on it being 20th maybe before I'd bet on it being 10th. Is your sense of the organization, because we talked in this preview, that so much of what they have been able to do over the years has been predicated on their ability to improve guys when they come through to make adjustments, to find a different slot, a different grip, and suddenly a guy who maybe was underrated or underperforming in another system takes a huge leap forward. Do you still view them as sort of one of the better pitching dev organizations, or do you think there's been retrenchment there? You know what? Can I answer that question at the end of this season? I think this season is a really good indictment on exactly what you're asking. I think they have a lot of pitchers in that stage of a career where you're not a rookie anymore. You have experience. You have data against various types of hitters. You've made a tweak to your arsenal or a tweak to your delivery, and it's time to reach that ceiling. That's why it's so tough. That's why projection systems don't love this rotation. It's why, you know, it's a rotation full of, like, 26-year-olds who have a year or two of service time. and I've seen players like that spend a lot of the year in the minors because it's just not working and I've seen players like that emerge as a shutdown frontline starter. Let's see what Carl Willis and company can do this year and then I might have a better answer on that. You know, it's too bad. We got robbed of watching Daniel Espino for almost four years and he was a first-round pick who threw 102 and had a wipeout slider and he was the type of pitcher that even the worst coaching staff and coordinating group could even, like, even with that, he would have, I think, excelled. And I so badly wanted to see him work with Cleveland's pitching team to see what he could do. And now we might see that in a limited role finally now that he's healthy. But I just, there have been certain pitchers who I've been so excited to see in this system. You know, could Brady Aiken have worked? Well, we'll never know. So they've had some key injuries to certain guys who I think would have helped us answer that question. And so now I feel like I need more time. I need more evidence. Yeah, that's funny. We just talked about Alex Bregman, and then Brady Akin comes up. Another just echo here. So the bullpen was strong last year despite the absence of Class A. it's an odd thing where I'm citing that as an impediment to success, the absence of the guy who allegedly was for years throwing balls on purpose. That seems like it would be addition by subtraction, and yet somehow he was one of the best relievers in baseball while seemingly doing that. So that's odd. Anyway, without him, the bullpen was still one of the strongest units in baseball, not quite as good as it was in 2024 when it was just otherworldly. but very strong. And the few free agent contracts, major league contracts they signed guys to this winter were relievers, Sean Armstrong, Colin Holderman, Connor Brogdon. So take us through the somewhat reconstituted Cleveland bullpen. They led the league in bullpen ERA after Emmanuel Klasse went on the restricted list, which I struggle to explain that. It's a deep group. I think it's a group that will have turnover maybe in waves throughout the season as many bullpens do but I think theirs will grow more and more intriguing as the summer goes on Kate Smith is the closer it's it's I feel robbed in some ways because watching him in the fireman role just coming out and constantly putting out threats was was a joy to watch the last two years but I guess we'll settle for him in the ninth inning, and we'll see if he can rack up 100 strikeouts for the third straight year. After that, it's a pretty deep veteran-laden group. Sean Armstrong had a phenomenal year last year. I would expect some regression, but they don't need him to be crazy elite. Hunter Gattis has become a pretty reliable reliever. Eric Zabrowski's had a lot of success from the left side. Tim Heron has had his moments. I'm more intrigued by what's coming. Andrew Walters had closer type stuff, second round pick a few years back, joined the bullpen in 2024 a little more than a year after he was drafted and looked the part for a month, but missed all of last season with a really gruesome injury, and he's going to get a late start this year. But if he looks like the guy he did before the injury, that could be a late inning option. And Espino, as I mentioned, could wind up in the bullpen at some point. And he's back to throwing upper 90s. So it's a group. You know, Franco Alamon's another name to remember for later. He's had ups and downs, but just really intriguing stuff. So it's the one part and only part of the roster where if it's not perfect, it's okay. And I think that's great. but it's tough when you're leaning on your bullpen to be the solid, the rock of your roster, just knowing how pitchers are volatile. There's risk there, but at least they have depth to maybe withstand some regression. Steven Vogt is the first Major League Manager ever to earn Manager of the Year in his first two seasons. As a big league manager, he's off to a Mike Trout-esque beginning to his managerial career. Now, the Manager of the Year award is sort of a reward for the team that exceeds expectations by the most. And so when you don't spend very much and the projections aren't very rosy, then I suppose that positions vote to be the guy who could win that award. But then again, maybe he had something to do with the Guardians exceeding expectations in those seasons. So is it the chicken or the egg? Is it the Guardians propelling him to that award? Is it him propelling the Guardians to their success in division titles? What have you observed about his managing thus far? I loathe the spirit of the award for a lot of what you laid out there, where voters, you have two voters in each city. And does a person in Seattle know exactly what Alex Cora had to deal with behind the scenes in Boston? No, usually not. This is the rare example where I think voters could say, okay, we know what Stephen Vogt had to handle midseason. And there has not been a manager, at least in 106 years, who has had to deal with a team that had some gambling issues. Maybe like self-inflicted gambling issues. And so it's... Maybe Pete Rose had to deal with some gambling issues when he was managing and also gambling. A little different. I don't think he won manager of the year. I don't think so. But I think he certainly was deserving last season. I think a lot of times, as you said, it's, oh, this team achieved more than we thought they would in April. And maybe we're just wrong about certain teams and the manager is benefiting from that. There are sometimes teams that win 105 games. And if you knew what life was like behind the scenes, you would be gobsmacked by what a manager has accomplished to steer that team to that position. But we would never think of that manager as the manager of the year because they were projected to win 91 games before the season started. So a lot of times it's unfair. And we are dealing with a very incomplete picture when we cast a ballot. But I think this was the rare instance where the team overachieved and the team endured quite a bit. and the manager objectively had to do a lot and pull the right levers at the right times to keep that team engaged and on the right path. So I asked Stephen Vogt at the winter meetings, what do you have to do to win a third straight manager of the year award? He suggested maybe the Guardians would have to win 120 games. I anticipated at that point that they'd do a little bit more than sign Reese Hoskins to a minor league deal. So expectations are once again low and maybe he doesn't even have to win 120 games, but I'd imagine that voters would have Stephen Vogt fatigue at this point. And so he certainly has made the transition look seamless. I think there are benefits to a player taking a year off to coach and then becoming a manager, and he has pushed all the right buttons. And he has learned from a lot of really smart people along the way that have set him up for success. And it's wild. You know, this is his third year. It truly feels like he's been a major league manager for 20. All right. Well, speaking of setting expectations, it's your turn to do so with our final question. Take us home. What would constitute success for Cleveland in 2026? If I knew nothing about projection systems, win total forecasts or anything like that, I would say you're in the ALCS, then you're in the wildcard round, and I would say another ALCS run. I would say winning a playoff series or two. I could also make the argument that this team has the longest World Series throughout in baseball. They haven't won one since 1948. There are people every day in Cleveland who meet their demise before ever seeing a World Series championship, and that that is and should be the goal, and I can't argue with that sentiment. I also know the self-inflicted challenges that this team and roster face, and so I would say a success in that regard, especially knowing that they are projected in many places to win somewhere between 78 and 82 games, I would say a successful season would be a division title and maybe winning a playoff series. But more than anything, it's getting growth and cementing Chase DeLauter and or George Valera and or CJ Cephas and or Travis Bazzana and or the list goes on and on as legitimate major league hitters. I think that's the most important storyline for this team this season. Well, you can read about that storyline and all the others at The Athletic. Go check out Zach Meisel's work. It's excellent whether he's writing about the Guardians or not. I guess the silver lining of the Guardians not doing much all winter is that Zach maybe has a little more time to pursue other stories. So that's something at least. You can also hear him podcasting about the Guardians on the Selby is Godcast. Thank you, as always, Zach. More time for the burgeoning legal career I never wanted. A lot of indictments to catch up on. So good thing you had the time. All right. That will do it for today and for this week. Thanks, as always, for listening. Next week, the podcast will be chock full of previews. Not only will we have two more season preview pods for you, but we plan to bring you a WBC preview as well. A couple of closing notes here. For one thing, if you're worried about my cholesterol level or Ryan Lambert's, for that matter, given our egg consumption, well, I can't speak for him, but I have always had extremely low cholesterol. And also the relationship between dietary cholesterol and heart disease has been reevaluated. Eggs actually aren't that bad in that respect, seemingly. I just read something in National Geographic about that. This article has the headline, what you've been told about eggs and cholesterol is wrong, doctors now say. However, there is a quote in this piece that I felt personally attacked by. It comes from a registered dietitian nutritionist who says, but that doesn't mean you should go out and eat a dozen eggs in one sitting. Oh, well, what if it's a Ben's dozen? And what if I'm standing while I eat some of them? Is that okay? Okay, great. As listener Shaul pointed out, I owe Paul Skeens an apology. We talked about his quote in reference to Team USA in the WBC. We're America. We've got to assert our dominance over everybody else. That's what we do. And I said the sentiment was undercut somewhat by the fact that it looked like he'd be leaving the WBC before it was over. That is not, in fact, the case. Tarek Skubel, yes. He is making just one serious start and then returning to Tiger's camp. Skeens, however, will be making two. And I think the confusion was that I had seen that he would be pitching an exhibition game for Team USA. And so I thought one exhibition, one tune-up, and then one real one. But no, the exhibition start doesn't count. He will be making two that do in addition to that tune-up. And two starts is about all anyone has time for in the tournament. So it seems he'll stick around until the happy or bitter end, which is appropriate because he was the first starter to enlist. So perhaps you can question the sentiment, but you can't question his commitment to said dominance. Also wanted to share just a few who you got suggestions that we got. I mentioned my past articles for Grentland and The Ringer, comparing Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, and then Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, and how closely matched their careers have turned out to be. I forgot that I kind of did a third one just last year, which was Otani versus Judge, but the title was So Who's the Best Player in Baseball? The subhead was who you got, Shohei Otani or Aaron Judge. This wasn't quite the same exercise. It wasn't a long-term thing. It was just, hey, today or for the rest of the season, which one would you rather have? Probably could have done a pitcher version, Skeens versus Scoople, who you got. But for Otani versus Judge, this was in early June, shortly before Otani returned to the mound. And I noted that the projections had Judge ahead for the remainder of the season. But Otani did outwar Judge, at least at fan graphs, 6.3 to 5.2 over the remainder of 2025. And I think you'd have to say Otani for 2026, as long as he's healthy and is fully operational as a two-way player. There's a bit of an age gap there, too. Not that Judge has shown any sign of decline. But that was more of a snapshot than a projection or prediction. However, I did solicit suggestions for other player pairs who might make sense for who you got. I'll just read a few. Here's one from Cole. This is topical. He says, hello, I'm a fan of the Cleveland gambling guards have to smile through the pain. And I thought of a fun one to track through their careers. Our top prospect, or close to it depending on publication, is Travis Bazzana, while the Tigers' counterpart is Kevin McGonigal. Bazzana is the second baseman, while McGonigal is the shortstop, but industry consensus views him as moving off the position within a year or two. Most suggest the cleanest transition would be moving to second or third. This leads to the perfect comparison, as they will be division foes, positionally similar, if not the same, as McGonigal moves to second down the road, very similar physical statures, and seemingly similar approaches and skills at the plate. One more niche and tidy aspect of the comparison is that, barring injury, they will both debut this year. Avery, Patreon supporter, says I'd bring up O'Neal Cruz versus Joe Adele, two incredibly toolsy outfielders who have each had one very good season and a few seasons that leave you screaming for just one adjustment that could make them top-end players in the game, and two guys who I would be very surprised if they continued to track similarly in the war department, 6.9 career war for Cruz and 0.1 for Adele. Not sure how similar that is. though Cruz benefits from some generous and somewhat suspect stat-cast defensive numbers, true enough. Chris W. says, I was thinking about what comparison might be a little off the beaten path. What about Patrick Bailey and Shea Langoliers? This one might be too weird, but I like it for a few reasons. First, we are on the cusp of the ABS challenge system and remain as yet unsure how it will change our valuation of catchers. And because of that, we may look back at this pairing in a few years and be shocked at how differently they're viewed. I guess that's only one reason explained in two parts. Anyway, regardless of the specific duo, I think this moment is ripe for choosing catchers for this exercise, particularly juxtaposing one whose main value comes from his offense, Shea, versus one whose main value is derived from his defense. Will the challenge system tank Bailey's magical glove work? Will it neutralize Langoliers' middling defensive skills? Or will it all come out in the wash and something totally non-challenge-related, like Langoliers moving off of catcher, be the deciding factor? And last one for now from Peter. Who you got, Vlad Jr. or Tatis Jr.? Both sons of big leaguers who topped 2019 prospect lists, signed huge extensions, and have had ups and downs so far in their careers. Yeah, that's an interesting one. I think of this typically as a long-term exercise, at least, as being an exercise for young players who have recently arrived, or who are about to, whereas Vlad and Tatis are seven seasons in, or going into their seventh season, and 27 are about to turn 27. So they have longer track records, but their career wars are pretty evenly matched, And there are some questions about what types of players they will settle in as. So thanks for the suggestions. Feel free to keep them coming. And please feel even freer to support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast coming. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners. Matthew Levine, Tippi Jackson, Christopher Lin, Zach Faust, and Hung Nguyen. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, discounts on merch and ad-free Fangraphs memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectivelywild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcast.fangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. And you can check the show notes in the podcast posted fan graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We hope you have a wonderful weekend, and we will be back to talk to you next week. Can you effectively sort through All of the stats and players in your head Isn't it vile to repeat them To all of your indifferent family and friends