Markets Are Betting the Iran War Is Over — Is it?

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Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rose on news of the ceasefire. More on that in a second. Brent Crude plummeted the dollar fell and Metastock popped more than 8% after releasing its new AI model Muse Spark. OK, what else is happening? The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire making yet another taco Tuesday. The two countries came to an arrangement just hours after Trump threatened to annihilate Iran. Under the deal, the US agreed to suspend strikes and Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets celebrated the news. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq surged nearly 2.5% and the Dow jumped more than 1,300 points on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Crude fell from $110 to $90 overnight before settling around $95. However, the ceasefire has already shown cracks. Iran halted oil tanker passage through the Strait after Israel attacked Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan claim the deal covers Lebanon while the US and Israel say it doesn't. Iran's parliament speaker also claimed the US has already violated three clauses of the proposal. The Iranian God says it's keeping its finger on the trigger ahead of talks with the US scheduled for Friday. OK, lots to dive into here. We're going to discuss this move from Trump and what it means for markets. We're joined by Robert Armstrong, commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter, as well as John Mowry, chief investment officer of NFJ Investment Group. Thank you both for joining me, John. I'm just going to start with you because last week you and I discussed this and towards the end of our conversation, you said you think he's going to, you didn't say the word taco, but you said that he's not going to go through with this. And that is what happened. Let's just start with your reactions to what happened in this ceasefire and how the markets reacted. Well, I'll start by kind of simplifying what we were saying as we kind of went into this week. Earnings are holding up, but multiples were not. And to me, that's really the story because if anything, estimates have gone higher and you were getting the tech sector at the lowest multiple going back to 2022. So this was really about multiple compression. And, you know, this is all pointing to what happened in the oil markets and how that subsequently feeds into the CPI and how that subsequently feeds into the feds, PAP, for rate expectations. And as those expectations got pushed back, you started to see the multiples compress more and more and more, even though there wasn't fundamental deterioration in the underlying stocks. And I think it's a real key point because I think a lot of times when people see sell-offs, they think, hey, you know, that's because, you know, companies are doing poorly. That happens sometimes. But in this case, this was purely based on an exogenous shock. And I think that all was trickling into how the Fed would move with interest rate cuts and those expectations. So, you know, you're getting multiples really down to some of the lowest levels we've seen in many stocks in four or five years. So I'm not surprised at all to see the relief rally today because we got some clarity potentially on opening the straight, which is 20% of supply, as we talked about last week. So all of those things trickle into, OK, if oil prices come in, then that's going to potentially lessen the impact on the CPI. And that will allow for the Fed to potentially revisit what the expectation for the market was, which is multiple rate cuts over the next 12 months. Right. That seems to be the hope and the expectation, at least after the ceasefire was announced, that if oil price, if we have a ceasefire, if the straight-off home is open, then that means the oil prices are going to come down. Then that means we're going to see lower inflation than we expected, which means that the Fed is not going to hike rates or at least will maybe continue with the rate cutting cycle. I mean, I appreciate how it all triggers down to asset prices ultimately, but the big question appears to be, or at least is to me, is it really closed? Or excuse me, is it really open? Is the straight going to remain open? Is this ceasefire over? Rob, I'm going to turn it to you because you actually created the term taco as I like to remind people over and over again. People are calling this a taco. Was this a taco? And what do you think this means for the markets going forward? As much as I enjoy my pathetically small kind of fame I have for inventing this term, I don't think it applies very well in wartime. This is a term that made a lot of sense when we were dealing with domestic policy, specifically tariffs, where Trump was really in charge. So he could make a grotesque threat and withdraw it, and the resulting kind of wave rolling through markets you could trade. Here, he's tangled up in a very complex multilateral situation, as we've just seen demonstrated today. Like, nobody seemed to tell the Israelis that the ceasefire said that they shouldn't bomb Lebanon. Somebody bombed that Saudi pipeline today, the Hormuz Strait alternative. So it's not a situation where Trump can flip a switch anymore. So I think it's very different. Now, did he back down in general? Well, the Iranians have come to the table and at least nominally agreed under certain conditions for the Strait to be open. So did he get nothing? Did he back down for nothing? I don't think it's that clear. So I'm going to sort of argue against myself and say, Taco doesn't quite fit here. I do also want to mention, though, I think John's point about multiples is very to the point. I mean, it's very interesting in this context that estimates, earnings estimates, have just been rising steadily through this whole war. And the reason that multiples are down so much is not just the stock prices have come down, but earnings estimates are up. And so there's nothing, like the estimates for companies, what they're pricing in doesn't incorporate any of the damage that higher oil price might do to growth or consumption. That's not in there. So I think we're in a situation where different parts of the market are sending different messages. That's an interesting moment. Yeah, you wrote in your newsletter, you said, quote, will the truth hold? Markets have decided that the glass is half full oil prices fell hard and Asian stocks rose on the news. Unhedged, which is your newsletter, that's you guys. So basically, Rob, Unhedged still believes investors are underpricing the possibility that sustained high energy prices will push inflation higher and growth lower. Could you elaborate on that point, please, Rob? Let me just lay it out in terms of a simple contrast. The stock market is almost fully recovered to where it was at the end of February, not all the way, but I think it's within a few percentage points. Oil's at 96 after falling 17%. We started the war at $65. So all is not back to the status quo ante in the oil market. And we've already seen today that this is a delicate situation and that things could go wrong in the straight. And even on top of that, when I talk to oil traders, they tell me it's going to take, even in the best case scenario, it's going to take a while for traffic through the straight to normalize, months, not weeks. Right? So how sensitive the U.S. economy is to high oil prices, we can debate, but I think there's a threat, not only an inflation threat, but a threat to growth, and that it's probably a bit underpriced here. Yeah. John, what do you make of that argument? Well, I couldn't agree with Rob more in terms of it's going to take time for ships to start running through the straight again. So I completely agree with that. Markets will move ahead of that. So I think as an equity investor, we have to be thinking about where markets will be before that occurs because equity markets are going to discount that quickly. So I think waiting for the headlines is always a challenge with investing. In terms of slowing growth, I would also agree, this is the real risk because higher oil prices are a regressive tax, meaning that that is a tax on everyone up and down. Really the global economy is not just Americans, it's everyone. And the point I would make about a regressive tax around oil, I think it's interesting because I think COVID really shaped people's, reshaped people's view on what costs were tolerable because the inflation was just so egregious. I mean, we had the highest inflation since 1980. And when I think about how people tolerated that, I mean, I think it's been kind of amazing as an equity investor, but also as I look at how just the consumer dealt with higher inflation from hamburgers to cars to houses. And everyone thought that that was going to push the economy into a weaker position and it ended up being much more resilient. So my expectation is that this time, because consumers are, I think, better equipped to deal with the inflationary effects that they learned from COVID, I think that this could actually not be a mechanism that slows the economy quite as much. I think the real question in my mind, tying back to the Fed, is, okay, you've got hot inflation and you've got shock inflation. And those are two very different things. One is demand driven, one is supply driven. What I mean by that is right now we have supply driven inflation on the oil side. Back in 2007, 2008, oil was ripping because emerging markets were ripping, China was getting ready for the Olympics. They couldn't get enough, you know, coping steel from Canada to build bridges, highways. So that was a very different type of oil spike that we saw when Goldman came out and called for it to go to 200 back, I believe, in 2008. This is supply driven. And the question to me is, will the Fed look through a supply shock? Because to Rob's point, if anything, there's a tax on the consumer. So you can make the case that actually you need to lower rates even more, even though the CPI might tick up, because this is not because the economy is running hot, it's because you're taxing all the global consumers around the world. Yeah, it's a really interesting point. It gets to the point of, I mean, it almost doesn't matter how we feel about it, what matters is how Jerome Powell feels about it. And he's got an unpleasant job right now for reasons John just made very clear, you know, he's getting it coming and going, and, you know, I don't envy him. Right? Because on the one hand, of course you should look through it, right? You can't print molecules and consumers are already getting hurt. At the same time, if the market gets the impression that you're being soft on inflation, you know, you're playing with fire on that side too. It's a damn delicate game and I don't envy the guy at all. Stay tuned for more of this panel after the break. And if you're enjoying the show, please follow our new Prof. G. Markets YouTube channel. The link is in the description. So, tell us all about it. It was pretty incredible. From the moment I entered that upper class cabin, I have to tell you, I felt like a VIP. Anything I needed a drink, snack, assistance with the seat. Flat seats. Flat seats. That's okay. Exactly. Had the four course meal, got my champagne, very delicious, enjoyed the food. 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But it seems as though the big implication is what this ultimately does to inflation and what those inflation expectations do in terms of the Fed's decisions. And that seems a little bit stupid when you say it out loud. No. But ultimately it does seem like that is what's going to determine the markets over the next year or so. No, I would say there is a second channel. Okay. The first channel, which John just described brilliantly, is that channel that leads to what the Fed does. The other channel is the, that's the inflation channel. The other channel is growth. So we put a regressive tax on consumers in a economy where there is not as much fiscal stimulus as there was in 2020, where the job market is not getting worse, but it's a little bit squishy already, right? No higher, no fire. It's not dynamic. Where there's just a little bit noise about credit problems in areas like private credit or consumer credit among poor consumers. Then you say, okay, regressive tax on the poorest consumers. You know, real income goes down. Consumption comes down a little bit. Companies start to feel the pressure. You know what a company does when it feels pressure? I've got to protect my margins. You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to fire someone. Right? Save a little bit of money. You can see where this is going. And by the way, I should emphasize, I think John's optimism is well placed. I'm playing out the right hand 10% of the probability distribution. Right. That there's a cascade from this regressive tax to lower consumption to companies cutting fat to the job market cracking. And all of a sudden you're in a recession, even though the American economy is not that sensitive to oil prices, you get this kind of crazy cascade in an economy that's a tiny bit mushy at one end anyway. You could see that being important. Not going to wood. None of that will happen. I think the highest probability is none of that would happen. But you can see that series or that kind of series of dominoes falling. It's very clear to me how that would all play out. I mean, that's at least where my mind initially goes here. It's like, okay, we've had these escalations in Iran. Yes, the Strait of Hormuz is supposedly open now, but they're also charging millions of dollars for every ship that passes through. And then they're also closing it every other second in Bitcoin, which is a whole other thing to talk about. But it seems to me that this generally leads to elevated prices at a general level. No, we're not going to have $150, $200 a barrel of oil. But certainly it seems like oil prices are elevated. Certainly it seems like gas prices are elevated. Certainly it seems like fertilizer prices are elevated, leading to elevated food prices, etc. And we are now seeing inflation expectations from various institutions. We were looking at Bank of America, who put inflation above 4% by the end of the year. Does that then lead to lower growth, which then leads to more layoffs? Because that's what companies are going to decide is the right thing to do in that environment, which ultimately sounds like, okay, that's a recession. That's where my mind goes, at least. But John, would you take issue with my mind going in that direction? No, that's the right logical sequence. The fly in the ointment, though, is what is the duration of elevated oil prices. And so that's what's going on. That's why there's pain points globally with what's going on with the strait, because of the 20% supply that goes through it. We don't buy any oil from Iran. China is the one that buys all the oil from Iran. I think 80% or plus. So this isn't about getting oil from Iran. This is about the global supply network, which ironically is very similar to what the tariffs were about. That was global supply network. And ironically, that was very much what COVID was about. That was the shutting off of global supply networks. And so Americans are getting a real taste of what globalization did in terms of supply chain management. I think that the way you have to navigate this, though, is there are going to be companies that are able to pass through inflation easier than others. And as an investor, when you see these large gaps between earnings expectations and multiple compression, that's an opportunity. That's where you see opportunity. And that's why you had the massive relief rally. I mean, the weaker companies today bounce. Like, for example, homebuilders bounce hard today. That's great. The earnings profile on homebuilders is bad. It's not good. And so it's like, would I want to go out and buy homebuilders today? No. It's like, well, they are 5% today. It's like, that's great. There's a lot of other areas that were up 5% today with really good fundamentals that makes sense while they're getting a re-rate because there's been no breaking the fundamentals. And we're just entering earnings season. So we're going to get a better read. But I couldn't agree more that all these things ultimately do trickle down and are going to impact how the companies think about their cap expend. They're hiring. They're firing all of that. But ultimately, the companies that are best equipped to deal with that have pricing power and those companies that have had multiple compression in this environment are the opportunities for investors today. The only thing I think that's quick, you nailed it there. The only thing I would add, huge difference between $100 Royal on $150 Royal and another huge difference again between $150 and $200. And $200 is imaginable, by the way, and inflation adjusted terms. We were $200 in 2008 before that crisis happened. So like if we, you know, I think most of the economists I talked to, the math on this stuff is too hard for me to do. But the economists I talked to say, you know, you can live 120, 130, 140, you get much higher above that than the, that you see the economy's sensitivity to the price of oil at that point. But that's a far way off, which is some reason for optimism. I could not agree more. You know, you push the oil toward that 200 mark. The pain point gets exponential. What is so different today because of the fracking technology, which was actually invented, I'm sitting here in Dallas, it was invented in Fort Worth, Texas. You know, the U.S. is now, you know, the largest oil producer in the world. You go back to 1970s, okay. You know, that was very different when we had oil inflation. You know, the U.S. was in a very different place. The Baker Hughes rig count, which we keep an eye on, has not ticked up. But to the extent that oil prices stay elevated, it's going to be interesting to see how America can flex its new energy dominance. I don't think people fully appreciate the dominance that America has with energy. And to the extent that, you know, America really wants to push this. You know, we obviously can release strategic reserves from Cushing, Oklahoma, but that's a band-aid. The real lever, the real lever is that America is the best equipped because of land rights and topography to turn on energy supply. And that's unique. And that's something different in the global economy that we have not seen really in our lifetime. I mean, we've had a lot of great reporting in the FT by my colleagues from down in Texas and other parts of the shale patch in the U.S. And the issue for them is, I think you're right. I mean, this, like at what point do we turn the taps on? But somebody who's deciding whether to put a rig up or not needs certainty. That's true. You know, it's like, if it's $150 this week, they're not going to put the rig up. They need to know it's going to be $150 in three months, right, when the rig is finally up. They don't want to wake up that morning in August and find out we're back at $75, right, where they pump and gas at a loss. So like it's going to be hard for us to flex if we don't know what the hell's going on, right? And so that, you know, we need, you know, the oil economy, not to mention, you know, people who insure boats going through the Strait of Hormuz, crews of ships. We need some visibility into the future in order to invest, you know, to get this thing going again. So we'll see how that goes. This brings up a point that I'd be interested to hear your answer to, John, because, I mean, we have spent pretty much our entire lives over the past week basically just looking at what this guy in the White House says on social media. And it seems like that's, it seems like we have to. I mean, if you want to understand what is going to happen, I mean, it seems as though you kind of have to be very plugged into how the president is talking about what's happening in Iran and what he's putting out on social media, because that's how he communicates. I just be interested as a wealth manager, as an investor. Is that something that you're focusing on? And if so, like, to what extent? Like how frequently and how seriously must you take the president's tweets when it comes to, say, bombing Iran? So I would say it's, you know, there's rhetoric and then there's policy. You know, if you try to manage money based on rhetoric, that's, I would argue against that. I think that's a really poor way to run money. You know, policy is what I pay attention to. I pay attention to what regulations are. I pay attention to what new policies are coming out, you know, what is in the pipeline. And then I pay attention to what the companies are saying, what the earnings are doing. I mean, the companies that make up America, this is the thermometer of America's health. You know, the government sits there, but it exists because the American companies pump out earnings. You know, it's pulling those tax dollars and then it's creating policy and going around the world and doing what it does. So I'm focused on the heartbeat of the capitalist model, which is the companies. And so I'm paying close attention to what they're saying, what they're doing with their capital. And the concerns that they have. So rhetoric is important, but what I would say about rhetoric is you can get lost in the noise of that. Because if you had taken a rhetoric out of the White House in the morning and made decisions on that, you know, you would have been surprised in the wrong way with what occurred. So that's not how we want to run money. We want to run money based on what the companies are saying and what the policies are coming out of Washington. Yeah, I'm sorry to believe that most of us as investors at least would actually be better. If you had a choice between listen to everything that the president says versus listen to none of it, as an investor, I might actually choose the latter at this point. I'll tell you this. I don't listen to, I read, I don't listen. And I know it's like a small thing, but I find that sometimes listening can cause emotional reactions. And so I like to read to them. And then I'm focused on what the companies are saying, what the companies are doing. And you really got to be, you know, looking for where opportunity lies. Because if you're looking for headlines, good luck. No one's going to send you a postcard in the mail telling you when to step into the equity markets. That's not how it works. They don't ring a bell as my old house used to tell me. No, I think the point I'm about emotion is really important. Like, you know, what Trump is great at, his superpower is causing people to feel strong emotions. This is why this is what got him to be president. This is what makes him such a hypnotic figure is he has like a mainline cable into our emotional wiring. And stepping away from that, you know, is powerful. Yeah. You know, and just trying to make sure his message may get through your brain, but you can't let it get through your emotions. 100%. Just on, before we end here, John mentioned opportunities. I'd love to just hear what you guys think about. I mean, we talked about the multiple contraction, which is, has been pretty stunning, especially when you look at a lot of these tech companies, which have been sliding over many, many weeks and months. And I mean, I was looking at Microsoft the other day trading at the same level it was in the post-liberation day sell-off. I mean, what do we think that there are some opportunities here in this market? Are we perhaps being distracted by everything else that's going on and forgetting that actually there are some pretty cheap stocks out there right now? John, I guess I'll start with you. Yeah. I mean, there's no question there are cheap stocks. I mean, I'll share this. And again, I'm biased because I look at stocks all day and this is what we do. So I, you know, I'm always, I'm always probably, you know, my bent is to be optimistic, but I would say this, not a lot of folks realize this, the Russell 2000 after today, that's the small cap index, it's up 5.5%. The Russell mid cap is up 5%. And, you know, the 1000 is down 80 basis points. So small and mid cap stocks are up. And it's like, why is that? Why is that? I think there's two, there's two key reasons. The first is that you've seen a rotation away from some of the mag seven. So though that's a very crowded trade and you saw some compression there, I think you, you saw compression there because folks started to be worried about, hey, maybe Nvidia and, you know, what it's doing to the software space and how it's breaking into, you know, being able to, you know, code more cheaply, you know, that could have, you know, pressure on the margins with some of these large tech companies. That's one piece of it. But then the other is these small and mid cap companies, what the market is signaling to me is that there's relief coming for these companies. And I think that is pointing to rates because those have the most debt, the most sensitive to interest rates. And the reason I think interest rates are so important, it's easy to say interest rates all about interest rates. Like interest rates are traffic signals for the economy. Okay. And they tell capital what to do. And so it's a big, big, big deal. And so when I see small and mid cap stocks up year to date in the face of everything we're seeing, that gets me even more optimistic. Because below the surface, you've got a lot of this location in CipriKol's, industrial's technology, consumer discretionary. But you've got to be choosy. Not all stocks are created equal. And I mentioned pricing power earlier. So you're going to have to really weed through not every stock is created equal. I have to wrap it up here, but Rob, any closing thoughts before we go? You know, I'm looking at that mid cap index myself. You know, I think it's really interesting. Still at a massive discount to the to the S&P 500. You know, I'm paid to write about markets, not invest them, but I would echo those comments. And to a certain extent, they apply also to European stocks, more interest rates sensitive, more energy sensitive at a discount. So the argument's there. And as far as Microsoft at 20 times earning, which it hasn't been in a really long time now that it's off a third. You know, we've had 25 years of reasons to bet against Microsoft, and it's had the last laugh every time. You know, it's like Microsoft is like the black mold of the American economy. Like once it's in your house, there's no getting it out. So I'm not betting against Microsoft at 20 times earnings. I'll put it that way. 100% agree. Robert Armstrong, commentator for the Financial Times and author of the unhedged newsletter, John Murray, Chief Investment Officer of NFJ Investment Group. Rob and John, thank you both very much. Appreciate it. Pleasure. Thank you. OK, that's it for today. We appreciate you joining us for another ProfG Markets panel. If you have a guest you think we should speak to on this topic or any other, please drop us a line in the comments or email our producer, Claire at markets at ProfGmedia.com. We hope to hear from you. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Joel Paterson and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Shilan, Isabella Kinsel, Chris Nodonni, and Mia Silverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to ProfG Markets from ProfGmedia. If you like what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. And tune in tomorrow for our conversation with Mark Zandi. The regime won't crush you just like the previous one. Online scams are stranger than they've ever been.