Bannon`s War Room

Episode 5279: Countdown Till Judgement Day

0 min
Apr 7, 202611 days ago
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Summary

Episode covers imminent U.S. military strikes on Iran following a presidential deadline, with analysis of military targeting strategy, oil market implications, and diplomatic breakdown. Hosts discuss the systematic approach to degrading Iranian infrastructure and regime collapse as military objectives, with oil prices spiking to $117/barrel amid uncertainty about whether strikes will proceed.

Insights
  • Military targeting follows 'five rings' system analysis: leadership, organic essentials, military structure, population, and field forces. U.S. has focused on outer rings for 38 days; tonight's escalation targets energy/infrastructure (inner rings) for potential state collapse rather than regime change alone.
  • Both sides believe they hold strategic advantage: U.S. military confidence in air superiority and degradation of Iranian capabilities contrasts with Iranian perception of asymmetric strength via Strait of Hormuz control and proxy networks, making negotiated settlement unlikely without major shift.
  • Oil market volatility reflects real economic consequences: WTI crude at $117/barrel (third-highest historically) signals market belief in strike execution; global supply chain disruption extends beyond energy to fertilizer (one-third of global trade) affecting food prices and agricultural planning.
  • Diplomatic channels have collapsed: Iran's maximalist 10-point counter-offer (demanding reparations, Strait control) represents unbridgeable gap; no face-to-face negotiations occurring; Iranian response to Trump's ultimatum was to freeze all diplomatic channels.
  • Presidential rhetoric carries military weight: Trump's 'True Social' messaging about civilizational collapse is being interpreted by markets and military planners as execution signal rather than negotiating tactic, raising stakes for any last-minute reversal.
Trends
De-dollarization acceleration: BRICS nations and Chinese Communist Party leveraging geopolitical instability to undermine petrodollar; Iranian forces accepting Chinese currency for Strait control suggests shift in global payment systems away from U.S. dollarEnergy infrastructure as primary military target: Shift from kinetic military degradation to systematic destruction of power generation, oil export capacity, and transportation networks to achieve regime collapse through economic strangulationAsymmetric warfare evolution: Iranian strategy pivoting from conventional military response to control of critical chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea via Houthis) and proxy networks to impose costs on global economy rather than direct military engagementAI-integrated battle damage assessment: Real-time targeting and munitions effectiveness now leverages AI and Palantir tools for rapid feedback loops, enabling dynamic mission adjustment during operations versus manual post-strike analysisEvangelical Christian nationalist mobilization: Trump administration explicitly tapping into religious rhetoric to build domestic political support for military action, with evangelical media ecosystem driving grassroots enthusiasm for Iran conflictSupply chain fragility exposure: Single regional conflict creating cascading effects across fertilizer, oil, food, and transportation sectors; demonstrates systemic vulnerability of global just-in-time supply chains to geopolitical disruptionPresidential decision-making opacity: Conflicting signals from Trump (simultaneous threats and diplomatic openness) creating market uncertainty; military and financial markets forced to price in multiple scenarios with 8-hour decision windowRegime legitimacy collapse indicators: Iranian supreme leader reportedly incapacitated; negotiating authority unclear; internal contradictions in regime messaging suggesting institutional breakdown independent of military strikes
Companies
Palantir
AI tools used for real-time battle damage assessment and targeting integration in military operations
Vanguard
Major financial firm holding significant gold positions amid currency devaluation concerns
BlackRock
Major asset manager holding significant gold positions amid currency devaluation concerns
Birch Gold Group
Precious metals investment firm offering gold diversification during dollar devaluation period
CNBC
News network referenced for coverage of Brent Crude oil pricing and financial market reporting
People
Steve Bannon
Primary host conducting interviews and framing geopolitical analysis throughout episode
Captain Jim Fanel
Retired military officer providing systematic targeting analysis using five-rings framework and operational planning ...
Eric Bowling
Markets analyst discussing oil price movements, WTI crude at $117/barrel, and financial market implications
Patrick K. O'Donnell
Military historian providing historical context for major presidential war decisions and regime change strategy
Jim Rickards
Called in to provide strategic framing on military and economic implications of Iran conflict
Neil McCabe
Reporting from White House on presidential decision-making and military strike authorization
Donald Trump
Primary decision-maker issuing ultimatums, setting 8pm deadline, and communicating via True Social posts
Jay Devance
Leading diplomatic negotiations from Hungary with Special Envoy and international mediators
Jared Kushner
President's son-in-law acting as key mediator in diplomatic efforts with Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey
General Cain
Leading U.S. military operations and planning for potential Iran strikes
Todd Blanche
Scheduled for 1pm DOJ press conference on anti-fraud initiative across states
Colonel John Warden
Developed five-rings targeting system analysis framework applied to Iran military strategy
Quotes
"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."
Donald TrumpTrue Social post, morning of episode
"The enemy as a system... we have for 38 days attacked that outer ring, and now we're going to expand it out into those two blue rings organic essentials and infrastructure."
Captain Jim FanelMid-episode military analysis
"Both sides think they're winning. Both sides think they've got the cards. I hold all the cards."
Steve BannonAnalysis segment
"This is a regime that is bent on destroying the United States as well. And it's now we can debate about how this occurred for a long time but now it's about winning and we have to win, Steve."
Patrick K. O'DonnellCombat historian segment
"The president is a master at pressing and getting this point across to say listen, you really need to come and make a deal and bend the knee."
Captain Jim FanelStrategic analysis
Full Transcript
Does it make sense to you that the person who says Iranians want the US to keep bombing? No, I don't know. It sounds like lunacy to me. Certainly most Iranian people at this point are not supporters of the regime. They would like regime change, but they know that this is not the way to go about doing it. There's not going to be a popular uprising in Iran. They tried that in January. 35,000, 40,000 people were slaughtered as a result. This is not going to bring about regime change in any way. Do you see a reason for Iran to make a deal and open the Strait of Hormuz before the president's deadline tomorrow? And if not, how seriously do you take his threat to destroy their infrastructure? Yes, well, that's a great question, Anderson. And I think it's really the question of the day. It's not yet in Iran's interest to make that kind of deal, however, given that their control of the Straits is the principal leverage that they have for any kind of negotiation. And, you know, as I think we talked about last week, their strategy is to survive, to prevent total surrender, to preserve the Islamic regime, and to do that they have to hang on to the Straits. It is their principal leverage. In terms of the president's threats, I think they have demonstrated an ability to absorb strikes at home while still exacting a cost on the rest of the world. And I think that's what those who make these kinds of decisions in Iran are prepared to do for at least several more weeks. It's not just the rhetoric about the Christian nationalist rhetoric. People are believing what they're saying. That's part of the problem. Oh, yeah. Without a doubt. The reason why Trump is tapping into that is because there's been a lot of coverage about the fractures within the right wing about over this war. The one thing that has been growing in popularity and support for this war is the evangelical communities, the Christian space. All of that part of their media ecosystem is excited about this. So not only are people believing it, but they're getting impassioned because he's making these very explicit calls to their religion. Would it be a limited ground invasion? Because the box we're already in, you're being dropped into the hole right now. What would you tell them to do? Well, I think it's really difficult, given where we are, because the military options at this point are very bad. A ground operation, I think, would only get us in deeper, cost-American lives and not solve the problem. I think continuing to degrade Iran's military capabilities and targeted operations is fine, but it also is not going to open the straight. And an attempt right now to do an escort operation, the chairman and the Joint Chiefs of Staff has told the president, basically, that's not a very plausible option. So this is a reason to get a diplomatic off-ramp. Now, my view is that a diplomatic off-ramp doesn't have to be a formal agreement between the two sides. It should be something a little more informal, a little more implicit. And I think that the president and his team should be looking for that, because they should be trying to bring this war to an end. And I believe the straight could be reopened on the back of that. And we could send a clear deterrent message to Iran. You mess with the straight, you mess with our neighbors, you mess with anyone else. We retain a lot of capabilities to cause harm to you. But an off-ramp right now for the president, I think, is by far the best option. Alright, the breaking news this morning. We are just learning of new reports of explosions on Karg Island. This handles almost all of Iran's oil exports, about 90 percent. If you look at that map, it's actually, yeah, you can see it all the way up there at the top of the Persian Gulf. They're just off the coast of Iran. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb or seize the island, and there have been strikes before. Oil prices have been spiking over the last few minutes since the reports have been coming in of these strikes, up about 2 to 3 percent in the numbers that I've seen. Again, now, now over 3 percent there in some cases. The president has put out a new message on social media. Can we put it up? Let's read it, because it's about the deadline tonight. He wrote, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily, yeah, wonderful can happen. Who knows, we will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world, 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran. I think if you're reading the tea leaves here, it is just an incredibly confusing message from President Trump. On one hand, he says that it probably will happen, referring to potential strikes on Iran tonight, and at the same time he says it's possible that there could still be a diplomatic solution here. So if you're trying to interpret what is going to happen, just 12 hours from now, I think it's still incredibly unclear. What is clear, we have learned, according to one U.S. official, that the U.S. has conducted strikes this morning, Eastern time on Karg Island. Of course, that is the key fuel hub in the Persian Gulf. It handles most of Iran's oil exports, so it's a very significant area and very significant that the Trump administration is telegraphing that they are indeed serious about proceeding with President Trump's threats. If they don't reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by that 8 o'clock Eastern time deadline. Diplomatic efforts are underway. Vice President Jay Devance, who's currently traveling in Hungary, is leading those efforts, along with Special Envoy Steve Wittkopf, Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, all acting as key mediators there. But I asked the president just yesterday whether he might be open to extending that 8 o'clock deadline if he felt like those talks were progressing. He said he couldn't say just yet, so that is certainly something to keep an eye out for. And this truth social post that we are seeing from the president doesn't really add much to whether or not definitively we should expect those strikes to happen. The president's saying that he will bomb Iran to the Stone Ages, attacking their critical infrastructure, things like power plants and bridges. The older that would obey the war crime that's being directed by the president and the secretary of defense would be committing their own war crime. They would be illegal. They would be essentially executing an illegal order. And that's exactly what Senator Kelly and his colleagues talked about, warned us about a couple months ago. You know, we cannot let that happen. It's terrible that it's gotten into this situation. The chairman and joint chiefs of staff pushed back a little bit on Donald Trump today, but he needs to push back more because our soldiers that execute these missions that are being directed by the president may one day have to answer to the Hague or some other international tribunal. Think of the Nuremberg trials, okay? Twelve senior leaders from the German military were executed, were hung as a result of their actions during World War II. Would we like to see that same thing happen to our American soldiers? Of course not. Senior leaders need to understand that what they're being directed to do, to execute, would be an illegal order and they cannot, in good conscience, allow their soldiers to execute them. This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies, because we're going to medieval on this people. Here's the reason I got a free shot of all these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of it. I know you don't like hearing that. I know you've tried to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen. And where do people like that go to share the big line? Maga, media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bowne. It's Tuesday, 7 April, in the year of our Lord, 2026. I think if the action lives up to the rhetoric, this will be a day to remember. Take your number two, Priscilla, right now and circle it. Action has already started on Karg Island with military targets. Also, the IDF, the Israelis are hitting, I think, already infrastructure targets. Captain Fanel is going to join us in a moment and walk us through systematically how this is going to be taken, the enemy as a system. And to break it down that way of what's going to happen. What is happening right now? Naomi Caves of the White House, Bowling is going to join us. Jim Rickards. So we've got for the next couple of hours to break all of this down and how this impacts your life, your community's life and the country's life. Let's go. I want to read first off too, and I think the most pressing. I said yesterday on the bowling show before we started the 5 o'clock, that if the president can't find someone to negotiate with and not simply a deal, but someone that could actually commit to a deal and deliver a deal. He's told you what the alternative is. Still with all this happy talk about a deal and not a deal and talk, we're not. There's no face to face. At least my understanding, there's no actual face to face communication. Between anyone really on the American side and the Iranian side. Now, there may be some announcements, etc. Come back and say, well, this guy was starting that. But right now, the president put out, and I think of all the true social sees put out. People should take this very, very seriously. A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now we have a complete and total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail. Maybe something revolutionary, revolutionary, wonderful can happen. Who knows? We will find out tonight. One of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. Let me repeat that from the president. One of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran. The Iranians, at least who we think are representing them, one of the ones that the media has been putting up, responded to this moments ago, right where we're coming on air. Iran responds after President Trump says their entire civilization will die tonight. Quote, all diplomatic channels and indirect talks have been frozen after President Trump's recent threats. Iran says. So there you have it. At least is the best we can do. And I said last night unless president's not into games very specifically yesterday, he said he gave him an additional seven days. Then he extended it three days. That got to tomorrow. He didn't want this action to take place on Easter money. So he gave him an additional day. That's 11 days. And I don't think there's been any real movement. Supposedly they got a 10 part counter, but I might add none of the points have really been leaked to the media. The 10 point counter offer has not been given to the media to see how far the bid in the Asgar, which appears to be at least right now unbridgeable. The time is eight o'clock. Real America's voice recovered all day. Let's go to the White House. Neil McCabe. Neil, the White House seems a very serious mode this morning. It's not a, it's very different than yesterday with the celebration of Easter money with all the Monday with all the kids there on the Easter egg hunt. Put us in the room, sir. Yeah, I'll tell you this, Steve, the president is basically an executive time all day except for a 3pm signing. But as you said that two social posts this morning basically said it is on. I would also refer you back to two last night. There were two attacks on US facilities, diplomatic facilities in Iraq by Iranian backed militia. And that may have been the trigger where President Trump said, All right, that's it. We're just going to do it. So right now people are hunkered down. There is, I'm going to just stick around there. We're going to go to break here in a moment. There is a 1pm press conference unrelated to the war. We're going to cover that because it's quite important. It's going to be over at DOJ with the new acting attorney general, Todd Blanche. And it's specifically going to be about this massive effort they're going to have on anti-fraud to make sure that we can get not just the Somalian situation of Minnesota, but across the nation, particularly in these blue states that's out of control as their new initiative. But in the new head of the anti-fraud division there. But I'm sure the media are going to ask questions regarding everything. So we're going to be there at 1pm. And the real America's voice will cover it. Hopefully Neil McCabe will be over there to cover this also. Neil, just stick around at the White House. We're going to come back to you. We're going to take a short commercial break. We're stacked this morning as we're going to break down. I think it's, look, from the Iranian's position, they're digging in. I said yesterday they feel they have the initiative and as brutally as they're getting taken down. And I think now we're moving to the mode of state collapse. They think they're winning. This is why they're being so arrogant and so tough. They're just blowing off President Trump to be brutally frank about it. There's not really a negotiation going on. So President Trump's giving them a deadline. We're about 10 hours away from that deadline. We will cover this wall to wall. As President Trump said, this may be one of the most important days in world history, the complex history of the world. Let's take President Trump for his word. I know people working nonstop to see if there's an off ramp. But as of right now, as the bridge used to say in the Second World War, the party is on. Short commercial break, back in the worm in a moment. 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He's going to unleash hell on them. And they're believing it. I'll just tell you the WTI crude, the West Texas intermediate, our crude benchmark to many, many crews around the world just hit $117 a barrel. Highest price. It's only been higher twice in our history. Biden headed at 139 for a brief moment and George Bush during his late in his second term $150 a barrel. It's a record high there. So this is the third highest ever. And if the things proceed as they look like they're going to, you may see the same, same types of numbers are maybe even higher. The problem is, Steve, one of the things that the Iranians in that 10 point, I guess, reconciliation package, one of them, I think was the was a big non start. First of all, a Trump administration official who saw it told Axios it was a maximalist plan, not a minimalist. One of the things that I think would be a deal breaker is that they were asking for also having some sort of remain in control of the the straight of our moves. They wanted reparations. They want to be paid for the damage that was inflicted on their country. And that Steve, that could be hundreds of billions of dollars. And I think that would be a complete non starter for the American people and Donald Trump. So a lot going on while higher, higher, higher oil prices, equities are, you know, obviously drifting lower. You know, just just hold out because Trump has a way of unleashing hell, showing them he means business and then somehow, you know, art of like I said yesterday, this is the art of war that combined with the art of the deal. I have hope that there's a there's an off ramp somewhere that he's holding a trump card so speaking in his pocket. Let's go back to that maximalist strategy. President Trump put out a true social. Clearly he had thought about, right? It was very tight. Wasn't loose. It was tight about this is going to be the end of your civilization. And on this on this stage, when you're talking about things like this, you can't bluff. Right. You can't bluff. So President Trump, when he says I'm taking down your civilization. And these guys come back and we don't know all the 10 points, but it's been referred to as a maximalist. Right. I think one of the reasons I'm not releasing it, they did the even administration doesn't want to show how big the gap is, although we're not in a room negotiating this. When you have two maximalist positions, one of the reasons you have it, Eric, is both sides think they're winning. Both sides think they've got as President Trump said, they have no cards. I hold all the cards. And I think we're going and I think Captain Fanel will support this in his analysis. We're going from the decline, defanging degradation of their military. Now to something I've been talked about and what even the Israelis were talking about initially, which is total state collapse. That's we're going after the infrastructure and the Iranians, whether they're correct or not is not the point in their mind. They think they've shifted the center of gravity of this war to the Gulf. They think they control the straits or removes. They haven't seen the United States Navy escorting ships in there. They haven't seen special forces raids yet to try to beat them back. They've been they've been bombed with 2000 pound bombs, but they think they have the initiative, not just their winning. They think they have the initiatives in this war right now. That is not a great set of facts to actually get into a table and try to negotiate a deal. The sides are just too far apart, not just far apart on what they're asking on what their mentality is. The United States of America and the commander in chief in the military are absolutely convinced that the plan has worked to date. Now they're going to drop the hammer even even even harder. And the the enemy believes they've gone asymmetric. I don't think they're debating that they've degraded their military, but they're going asymmetric. And one of the tells there is West Texas. I mean, why would West Texas intermediate, which is the price of the oil here, be it $117? I think it's higher than than Brent Crude. Right. Why are people panicking and at least bidding that up right now when that's not directly related to what's coming out of the Strait of Hormuz? Well, a couple of things. Price of West Texas is 117 approaching a record, but the Brent Crude that we see on CNBC, etc. is for a June delivery. What you're looking at West Texas is for a May delivery. If you apples to apples with the Brent will be a spot price Brent and that's that's roughly 100, almost $140 a barrel, but they don't trade it actively like that. That's immediate use right now. And I think that is West Texas going up because yes, it is more benchmark to North America and maybe some European countries, but it's still oil like money is fungible. It's not perfectly fungible like money, but it's fungible in that if Brent goes to $200 a barrel, let's say, and West Texas stays at 120, there'll be a lot of people who are switching their refineries over and stays there, and they believe it will stay there for a long time. And that's where the refineries over because the transportation cost makes it economic to do so so it's tough to do you need a lot but that's why a dislocation in one area in the global oil market brings all oil prices up because at some point the dislocation and price differential makes sense to pay the extra money to you know, Horn of Africa wherever it may have to go. But the one thing I think on what your first point was, I'm people are going to like this and this is really bad for me and for stock accounts everywhere but at this point Steve yeah I think both sides, I don't know if Iran thinks they're winning. They'll, they like to thought of being martyrs and fight to the death, and they may be on that mentality right now but at this point, a 45 day ceasefire doesn't make a lot of sense it's markets would take a breather oil go down stock market go up but it doesn't fix any of the problems. And I don't think the Iranians are ever going to come around to where Trump needs them or wants them to be so this point unless they come, you know hat in hand in next, you know, eight hours or so nine hours. I think the best move is just unleash hell on them and follow through with it. When you say unleash hell, the president has bifurcated this as infrastructure, electrical grid, what they need to for their day to day and and oil infrastructure in the oil industry. I think the Karag Island hit this morning, at least as I can parse it, focus additionally on military targets I clearly sent a message that Karag Island is on the punch list, but they hit military targets what do you think happens. If this goes broader than just the electrical infrastructure and he actually starts to hit the Iranian infrastructure of of all the complexity of their oil and gas industry sir. He's, he's well on his way when you take out the power, they need power and energy to transport oil that's our only commodity that's our only economic input so he'll effectively create a situation and take the bridges out so they can't transport it via truck or train without the bridges he's he's going to cripple him he's going to bring the country to their knees and maybe that's what it's going to take to get him to the bargaining table but they're going to feel hell for quite a while with with just this if he escalates it to, you know, media which I have recommended in the past go but I want I was hoping to do it and I think they could have five or six hour ultimatum. I think they could have system systemically done this thing, where the Iranian say, Okay, enough is enough but he wants to he wants to hit him hard and him fast and, you know, again, I've learned I'm old enough to have learned that it's not wise to doubt Trump's plan because sometimes you don't see what the ultimate plan is but he seems to always have one that works. This may be painful first though. Eric, any closing observations will let you get back to work see on the four o'clock show we'll do a handover. If, if I've organized enough in the five. I love doing the handover with you, but this could be one of those days what any closing thoughts for you for your bounce. I think today is the day of hold your breath, so to speak, and it's certainly in the oil market the financial markets in the humanitarian market, so quote unquote markets as well. All eyes are looking straight at eight o'clock I just hope it's not another delay because it just it's like, let's rip the, rip the freaking bandaid off already and do or do it and deal with the fall out now, or, or don't do it and deal with, you know, backtracking Trump doesn't seem to type to want to do that. At this point I don't think smart way to do it either that would give the Iranians in bold in the Iranians I think that they can do this again and again so you know I'm bracing for some higher prices and some lower equity prices lower evaluations on assets and a lot higher prices on food and everything that's going to happen and then hopefully again Steve I've said this a long time, hopefully he gets this over real fast and then just really really pumps the crap out of oil and gets that price back down to a level that it doesn't hurt us in the midterms midterms. I keep circling it it's going to be a thing people are saying oh this is bigger than midterms. Yeah, tell me that November 7 when when you know if there's a sweep a blue wave and we're going back to days of woke ism and you know nothing getting done in DC and the liberal progressives just have their way in this country, not pretty for me. It'll be so much worse than that. It'll be it'll be the moral equivalent what President Trump is warning the the Iranians about right now the Democrats will immediately impeach him but that won't come for a year and a half and every day will be held the ring held down on the White House because these guys are Marxist jihadist out of control. Eric thank you so much appreciate you sir. Take your phone and in tax Bannon B8. Thank you. See you at 450 or so. Thank you sir. Bannon at 989898 get the ultimate guide for investing in gold and precious metals in the age of Trump. You don't think it's an age of Trump read his true social post this morning. The president of the United States says one of the most important days in the history of the world. 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You get a three month emergency food supply don't include a free mega protein upgrade an incredible $200 bonus you don't want to miss it's a simple way to protect your family from whatever comes next. Go to prepare with Bannon dot com that is prepare with Bannon dot com to get your emergency food supply today that's prepare with Bannon dot com do it today go check it out. Welcome back the the Iranians are ratcheting up the rhetoric also they just breaking news Iran and I've given us Jim Fanel will talk about a camp for now joins us they have threatened. They said they're going to close as I've warned about the Red Sea is just as important here as the as a straight or her moves they have threatened to basically shut down the entire Saudi Arabian Peninsula and particularly the straight that leads into the Red Sea from. I guess is from the North Arabian so not the North Arabian sea I guess the Arabian sea. Which has always been a choke point with their partners the Houthis captain for now I want to step back before we get into the details of going back and forth in this rhetoric and what's happening now. I think it's very instructive you because you've been hey this is the plan. This is what we're doing. This is how we're taking it down every day they get degraded more that this whole concept of the enemy as a system. The enemy as a system because this is the way military planners target tears like yourself. Others are looking at this I think it's quite important today. For us to separate out the rhetoric from the reality and right now you have two very serious sets of people one in Sencom and the Joint Command under under General Cain. That are moving towards a potentially major escalation tonight but you also have an enemy who I think believes they're winning. They've gone asymmetric and they're got you know they feel they've got cards to play. Let's start with that concept first off the enemy is a system I know you've got a graph but walk the audience through I want to get this construct in people's minds as they see all this activity and what appears to be chaos. Coming through the next couple of days potentially that we help folks look through the fog of war sir. Yes Steve I think I would you know obviously we're all following this and I've been talking with colleagues of mine and retired Navy Admiral who was involved with the war against Kosovo said after the conflict he talked to the Slovenian Director of Intelligence and asked him why did Milosevic give up and the Soviet train general said, well you finally started impacting those forces that supported Milosevic, the army and and is against his policy, and you started cutting off his access to funds. So this is just a reflection of this debate that you just highlighted which is, can airpower alone and that this is really the canard is it's not ever argued alone. But what is the value of systematic approach to targeting an adversary. So if you go to the graphic that I provided a camera in there please. Back in 1995, Colonel john warden United States Air Force would serve from 1965 until 1995 was a Ford air controller flying Broncos in the Vietnam War came up with this system analysis of how you will go after a look at your opponent, and it's called the five rings, and a nice article that just came out this last week and the army war college was published by Dr Jacob Stoyle, it says that, you know, he talks about this being applied to Iran. And so what you see there is these rings, and in the center ring is the leadership, and then it's outer ring next outer ring is organic essentials and then the military structure and population, and then field and military forces. So for the last 38 days, the US military, Pentagon and SINCOM, and the joint force have been going after predominantly on the US side, the field and military forces. They've been using asymmetric capabilities against their, you know, a lot of different Iranian capabilities. We've gone after their proxies regional proxies conventional military forces, and likewise the Israelis have been focusing on the leadership and the leadership and there's some charts out there even today that show the, you know, the scores of IRGC leadership that has been decimated along with the religious leaders and the supreme leader and his family and whatnot. And we haven't really a struck and touched the organic essentials which is the energy sector. We've gone after missile industrial complex those missile cities, where they produce the ballistic missiles and drones and things of that nature. We've gone, we hit one bridge it was very publicized this last week, but we haven't really gone after too much. So what's happened this morning already is that you're seeing Israel IDF going after road and rail bridge networks in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Qom, and in Western Iran, along with the United States attacking military, finishing off or not I don't know finishing is not the right word but continuing to attack military facilities on Karg Island, which is everyone knows is about 90% of Iran's output for oil. That's the center point that's the key point in the in the Gulf. So what's happened is is that we have for 38 days attack that outer ring, and now and the inner ring, and now we're going to expand it out into those two blue rings organic essentials and infrastructure. And as you said, it does the plan and the structure is to have regime collapse. And, you know, the regime leaders whoever they are at this point several rungs down the ladder. They may or may not. Hang on. I want to get terminology right here, because President Trump said, and you see from the chart, he believes that's regime change. You've gone down, I think on the IRGC level, it's even to the brigade level. We've killed a lot of people in the Israelis have as they are want to do really target this for leadership and some say where they also target who the negotiators are be that as it may. They've taken care of that. Haven't we need to look at the systems analysis. This is what I want to get across the audience. What happens tonight is kind of fundamentally different. We're going towards state collapse. I think if you get back and President Trump's rhetoric is that this is not simply about the regime anymore. They're going to take down this is why he's warning the Iranian people that hey, your life is going to be very different after this. This I'm looking at civilizational collapse or state collapse. They're going after the basic building blocks of how a nation actually exist. Is that a way to look at it that this is kind of fundamentally different as you get closer into that inner circle of where you're going to take this apart systematically take the system apart systematically. I think I think the rhetoric will be used that way. And the presidents use that rhetoric to say that exactly that to the Iranian regime. This will be the end for you. What in fact will actually happen likely tonight is that he's going to take out all their ability to produce power and produce electricity and their ability to export oil. Which means they will have no money to come in. They will have no power to move and build missiles, build drones. They will not have any bridges, rail or road so they won't be able to get supplies in from Russia or anything flown in or maybe flying and still could be some. But there won't be anything coming in from external sources. They will be cut off. And so the regime will have to do something and what can they do. Well, most likely they'll respond with a gas, a salvo of ballistic missiles and drones. They'll probably be quite large over the next day or two. But they're running out of those systems regardless of analysis from some. I think the fact of the matter is that they're being depleted after 38 days and the idea that they can just go on and do this indefinitely. It doesn't match the assessments that are coming out of SENTCOM or the Pentagon or other sources. Now there's some that still say they have so much there. But the idea that we were able to fly to rescue missions on two different days and fly American aircraft, you know, M.C. 130s and helicopters and 810s and fly for seven hours over 200 miles into Iran to rescue two aviators is a demonstration. And I love San Faddis, but I vote for me what I heard yesterday from the President's press conference was the Iranians are really incapable of stopping us when we want to. Sure, they fired up some missiles or some of these project 358 loitering surface air missiles, but in 13,500 combat sorties. That's maybe the only one that they've actually successfully hit anything with. So I think the evidence is from this. You know, what we're seeing is we're operating at will over Iran. And when we start go to turn the lights out, we go to shut down their rail and road networks completely. There's not going to be anything left for the regime to do except kill their own citizens. And maybe the president has some plan there as well that he hasn't told us about. And those people will be able to do something against this regime. But right now the regime is not what it was 38 days ago. There is no supreme leader even in the last three or four hours, we've seen some reporting where the Iranians are saying we can't have a negotiation because our supreme leader isn't really capable. So, you know, two days ago, a week ago, we were told he's in control. Now we're hearing other back peddling. So I think the facts on the ground are that Iran is collapsing in the process of collapsing and tonight is going to really be dramatic. And I think the precursor actions which seem to me coordinated between Israel and the United States this morning are indicators to again from the president as Eric Bowling just said, the president is a master at manipulate not manipulating but pressing and getting this point across to say listen, you really need to come and make a deal and bend the knee, bend the knee and this will all end. And they may or may not do that. I expect not based on what Sam's told us about their regime so it's going to get ugly before it gets better. I don't think there may be they do but I think their mentality is hey we're winning here we have the initiative whether it's reality or not their reality. Hang over a second as we go to break out a couple minutes. Put us in the room. You're basically nine hours away, nine or 10 hours away from what could be a massive assault. What are the target tears what's happening at Sencom's core group as they talk to Admiral Cooper and they go through what what is the what's the what's the work process flow right now. Well, in the targeting world all that work has been done earlier. So right now as a target here right before these combat operations actually start this level this next phase of it if you will. There's probably some calm because now all the homework's been done they know where all these facilities are. They've been paired up with the, you know what platforms and what munitions they've done all the munitions effectiveness assessments. They contingency plan as the president talked about contingencies last night. So the planning is basically done it's now down to the execution. So the stress will be out in the forward areas and the our forward airfields where the the pilots are working with you the ammunition loaders and making sure that everything's right and prepared on their aircraft. Same on our carriers. So if I'm a if I'm a strike planner on board the Lincoln, you know it's I'm still, you know, I'm still humping and making sure everything's right that I'm ready to go locked and loaded in my mission but back at Sencom. Everybody's like okay we've picked all this they're working on the next phase. So they're preparing the next phase of what else has to be done and as well as preparing the battle damage assessment teams. So that battle damage assessment process is no longer just as manual as it was when I did it in Desert Storm. It's highly highly integrated today with AI and you know tools from Palantir and overhead national systems collections and all of the capabilities that we have to be able to get rapid immediate feedback on how if we start this tonight. Oh we missed something or let's put more pressure here. So that's that's what we'll be going through and as always the priority will be on the safety of our air crewmen and and and aviators that are flying over the territory of Iran to make sure that we don't get hurt, as well as making sure that we're defending for the salvos that are likely to come from Iran back at us. Hang on one second hold to the break Captain Jim Fennel. The steely resolve of the United States military on full display for the world to see in the next 24 hours short break. The American healthcare system is broken and for most Americans nothing changes. There's still delays, denials, high cost insurance roadblocks. So when I find people doing things differently, I talk about it. 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Now more than ever, we've come out with the West Texas Intermediate. It's now 117 bucks. Markets are all over the place. And of course, whatever happens tonight, the next nine, eight or nine hours, we'll drive that even more day by day. We came out with the eighth free installment of the end of the dollar empire. It's about the pressure being put on the nice on the US dollar. Part of that is this massive spending proposed Pentagon budget is wait for it 1.5 trillion dollars. I don't think that includes the 200 billion that they're asking for for this war effort right here. And that does not include what's going on here in the last couple of days. So the pressure on that also whoever is controlling the straight or her moves. I'm not so sure it's a revolutionary guard as a group of pirates down in down in southern Iran, right on the cliffs there that have had a they've had a good run for centuries of kind of living there and screen was shipping all the time. But they're taking it in Chinese currency and as Captain Fanell has ground into us over a long period of time, keep the main thing the main thing. And so the BRICS nations, which we kind of had on the ropes a little bit after the Rio reset with particular with President Trump coming back in office. Now looks like this BRICS thing is back on fire and the Chinese Counties Party are doing everything they can possibly do to destroy the US dollar. So make sure you get the end of the dollar empire five years now we've been putting this out now the eighth free installment. Make sure you got it in sometime this week, given time, we're trying to break down this budget proposal, and also at the same time, talked to you about what the meaning of this about they're trying to go to. They're trying to go to break the petro dollar, but learn all about it and talk to Philip Patrick team. That's the key thing get the Philip Patrick and the team today as gold bounces all around. Patrick K. O'Donnell actually to join us. Because of major presidential decisions the President of the United States the commander in chief of the most powerful military in the history and world history said today on a true social this is one of the most important days in the complex history of the world. With the decisions that will be made approximately or be executed upon around 8pm Eastern Day like time today. The Iranians came back and said hey yo put it where the sun doesn't shine. We're breaking off any communications and then they came out afterwards and said on don't even worry you think harm is a problem we're going to shut off the Red Sea. Talk to me about the scale of presidential decisions. You're someone is a great combat historian. You've written so many books about war in America being in war of which every president I think all the major presidents are captured in your in your writing. What's your sense of this how big a day do you put this in the at least the military history of the United States. This is a massive and consequential day. This is an incredibly important decision. And I think that this war is up there in terms of World War II in terms of the moral importance of of taking down the Iranian regime and freeing the Iranian people. And that's what it's really all about. And now the question is how do you go about that. It's complex part. But the axis of the resistance is fueled on oil. Let me ask you. Hang on. Hang on. Hang on. Let me ask you about your premise. You were assigned as a combat historian in the Iraq war. It's one of the most and you gave a very powerful talk when we played the last 600 meters. You guys were there. You were with a Marine rifle unit. The enemy was under fire as a combat historian because you embedded with these guys right at the tip of the spear. That was I think in 2006 roughly 20 years later for that. Why do we give it? What more for what? Why do why do we? What is the moral imperative of freeing the Iranian people? Why do we give a damn? There are people all over the world that are impaired like this. Why do we give a damn about the Iranian people? The Iranian people. The Iranian people brought on this this theocratic regime when they kicked us out unceremoniously. So and I realize that a lot of them had buyer's remorse, but it sounds to me like a personal problem. Why is this now a high moral cause, sir? It's the invisible hand that's been fighting the United States for 47 years. I'm killing many of the men that I was in battle with in Fallujah. Destroying the efforts in Iraq that many of these soldiers and Marines, airmen, gave their lives for. This is a regime that is bent on destroying the United States as well. And it's now we can debate about how this occurred for a long time and I'm sure that's going to happen. But now it's about winning and we have to win, Steve. And we win by taking away their oil revenue and that's that's it will collapse. They are a dead man walking at this stage. And now what they are trying to do is distract us with the straight of hormones. It's a big distraction. It's important distraction. It is not the center of gravity. Center of gravity needs to be destroying the Iranian regime. Why do you say the center of gravity is is regime they've been we bombed them. As you know, these sorties have been these stories have been just brutal for the last what 3839 days they've shifted the center of gravity to the Persian Gulf. And in their mind, I'm not saying they're right, but in their mind they had they have the initiative, sir. Washington said, do not be drove. In other words, never see the initiative to the enemy. And that's why the straight of her mouth her moves is an incredibly important lifeline to the world's economy. But it's a distraction. The key is freeing the Iranian people at this point and removing the regime. Can any kind of deal is going to be a situation where it's not worth the paper. It's written on they're just going to lie, cheat and steal and do what they always do. And there's a real possibility if they're not removed that they will get stronger and much stronger and they'll be stronger with their partners with the Chinese and the Russians. I tell you what, Patrick K. O'Donnell, hang on for a minute. I want to get more of you import Jim Rickards is out and about, but he's going to call in. We want to get the strategic framing of Jim Rickards. We got Captain Fanel with us. Patrick K. O'Donnell, top combat historian of the generation. We're going to have much, much more in the second hour as President Trump says, one of the most consequential days in the history of the world. We're going to take a short commercial break. The right stuff's going to take us out. We'll be back in a moment. 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