Rookie Review + Worrisome Wideouts - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/17
50 min
•Feb 17, 20262 months agoSummary
The Fantasy Footballers review the 2025 rookie class across QB, RB, WR, and TE positions, comparing performance to historical averages. They identify standout performers like Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck at QB, discuss concerning trajectories for hyped receivers like Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison, and highlight an exceptional tight end class led by Colston Loveland, Brock Bowers, and Jalin Warren.
Insights
- Rookie WR class significantly underperformed expectations with fewest receiving yards since 2018, inverting the 2025 draft narrative where RBs were deep but WRs weak—2026 class expected to reverse this trend
- Rushing volume is critical predictor of QB fantasy success; Jackson Dart's 41 rushing yards/game in starts positions him as ceiling play despite injury concerns, while Tyler Shuck's steady floor benefits from Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense
- Mid-season coaching changes and bye weeks significantly impacted rookie trajectories; Cam Ward's 10:1 TD:INT ratio post-bye suggests development potential despite early struggles
- 79% of RBs finishing top-24 in year one reach top-12 in year two, but pass-catching ability is differentiator—Judkins' limited receiving profile creates downside vs. Harvey/Gentry/Travion
- Rookie tight ends no longer require multi-year development; 2025 class set records in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs, suggesting immediate fantasy viability for top prospects
Trends
Bye week performance as inflection point for rookie QB development and play-calling adjustmentsCoaching staff continuity critical to rookie WR success; mid-season coordinator changes correlate with production volatilityPass-catching ability emerging as primary differentiator for RB fantasy upside in modern NFLTight end class depth improving year-over-year; immediate fantasy contributions replacing traditional multi-year development curveOffensive coordinator impact on QB fantasy ceiling; Kellen Moore's fast-paced system drives snap count advantagesTarget competition within same team limiting individual rookie WR upside; committee approaches reducing predictabilityRushing volume sustainability for pocket-passing QBs declining in year two; Cam Ward's limited rushing floor limits ceilingInjury timing relative to season arc affecting rookie evaluation; early-season injuries vs. late-season injuries show different recovery trajectoriesFirst-round draft capital providing job security buffer for underperforming rookies; Cam Ward's #1 pick status vs. Bryce Young's mid-round statusHistorical regression patterns showing 33% of top-24 RBs in year one lose 2.6 PPG in year two; injury and usage changes primary drivers
Topics
2025 Rookie QB Class Performance AnalysisJackson Dart vs Tyler Shuck Fantasy Ceiling ComparisonEmeka Egbuka Mid-Season Regression CausesMarvin Harrison Year Two Decline TrajectoryRoma Dunze Target Competition with Colston Loveland2025 Rookie RB Class Efficiency MetricsTravion Henderson Workload SustainabilityJudkins Injury Recovery and Year Two Outlook2025 Rookie WR Class Underperformance AnalysisJaden Higgins Playing Time Reduction Concerns2025 Rookie TE Class Record-Setting PerformanceColston Loveland Dynasty Keeper Value2026 Draft Class Inverse Expectations (WR Deep, RB Weak)Kellen Moore Offensive System Fantasy ImpactRookie Development Timeline Compression in Modern NFL
Companies
Ultimate DraftKit
Sponsor offering pre-order at ultimatedraftkit.com with listener league entry opportunity; lowest price of year promo...
NFL
League context for rookie performance analysis, coaching changes, and team roster decisions affecting fantasy outcomes
People
Andy Holloway
Co-host of Fantasy Footballers podcast providing analysis on rookie QB, RB, WR, and TE class performance
Jason Moore
Co-host providing counterarguments on Jaden Higgins and rookie WR evaluation; noted to have prepared counter-argument
Mike Wright
Co-host with strong opinions on Marvin Harrison, tight end prospects, and rookie class comparisons to historical data
Jackson Dart
2025 rookie QB with 41 rushing yards/game average; fifth-best among rookie QBs ever in fantasy points per game
Tyler Shuck
2025 rookie QB who surpassed 17 fantasy points per game threshold; benefits from Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense
Cam Ward
2025 rookie QB with 10:1 TD:INT ratio post-bye week; #1 overall pick with limited rushing volume for fantasy
Emeka Egbuka
2025 rookie WR with dramatic mid-season regression from 89 yards/18 PPG to 41 yards/6 PPG after Gronkowski criticism
Marvin Harrison
2025 rookie WR with inconsistent play; compared to worst-case DK Metcalf scenario; concerns about Michael Wilson emer...
Roma Dunze
2025 rookie WR with 5 TDs in 4 games early season; concerns about target competition from Colston Loveland and Luther...
Luther Burden
2025 rookie WR competing for targets with Roma Dunze; drafted WR 22 in best ball; showed strong tape
Colston Loveland
2025 rookie TE setting records; Andy's potential keeper candidate; part of tight end class trifecta
Brock Bowers
2025 rookie TE part of record-setting class; part of tight end trifecta with Loveland and Warren
Jalin Warren
2025 rookie TE part of record-setting class; part of tight end trifecta with Loveland and Bowers
Travion Henderson
2025 rookie RB with strong window of production; pass-catching ability noted as key differentiator
Jaylen Judkins
2025 rookie RB with impressive performance but limited pass-catching profile; injury recovery status TBD
Jempsie
2025 rookie RB finishing top-24 in fantasy points per game but among lowest efficiency running backs
Harvey
2025 rookie RB with pass-catching ability; J.K. Dobbins competition expected to limit workload
Jaden Higgins
2025 rookie WR with reduced playing time in important games; mixed with Jalen Knoll for targets
Baker Mayfield
QB who praised Emeka Egbuka in camp; had blinders on when throwing to Egbuka early season
Kellen Moore
Offensive coordinator for Tyler Shuck; known for fast-paced offense driving fantasy goodness
Quotes
"He is a good wide receiver. He was talked up through the entire camp process. Baker talked about this rookie is coming in, looks like a vet, does everything right, loves him as a man."
Andy Holloway•Early segment on Emeka Egbuka
"I feel like my normal default reaction would be to find a super clear path to tell you why he'll be fine. That's how I feel like my default reaction would be in this situation. I feel biased towards his success."
Andy Holloway•Egbuka analysis
"The great ones they don't go ping between what are you doing on that play and, oh, that was nice. That's my point. And I'm really nervous."
Jason Moore•Marvin Harrison analysis
"79% of them were top 12 the next year. Yes, it is an incredibly good bet to make."
Mike Wright•RB historical analysis
"2025 gave us the most targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns by rookie tight ends ever."
Mike Wright•Tight end class review
Full Transcript
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Hi! Whoa! Welcome in. Oh, man. Oh, man. It's going to be one of those shows. That's not mid-season or off-season. That's mid-season. No, that's the beginning of a season. All right. Let's do whatever you want season. We just began 2026, Mike. Just now. I mean, it was like a month and a half ago, but. No, no, no, no, no. Football. Yeah, we're going to. We have the Mayan calendar. Right. And the NFL calendar. That's how I live my life. I think I saw somebody talking about how we shouldn't do New Year's the way we do New Year's. The New Year should be when spring starts. Because our New Year is the dead of winter and people are stuck indoors. It should be in association with spring and newness. We should rotate the calendar. Basically what you're saying is the final month of the year should be March. Correct. I don't know when spring starts because we don't have seasons in Arizona. We have hot or less hot. Less hot's pretty nice, though. You have the reverse seasons down under. Yeah, I don't. They're not part of our world, Mike. By the way. I am sorry, Australia. Do you see we had the hottest February in Arizona in history by a lot? I felt like it. It was like an average. Our average temperature for those out there. There's people buried in snow. I want you to understand this. You got it all. Our average temperature this month was 69 degrees. That's not cold. That's pretty nice. The highest previous was like 64 as a high average. Like we're, our water is, our water is gone. This is not good for summer. We don't have snow runoff. We got no water. Don't worry, snow people. We're about to get it. Yeah. We are doomed. It's coming for us. Oh, boy. I'll say it once. I've been saying it for a while. We need to get this state indoors. We need to build a dome. We need to build a whole. I mean, I'm team dome on that. Yeah, team dome on the state of Arizona. Put the whole state inside of a dome. That'd take a while. I feel like. That's a pretty big project. Yeah. What is that city they're building over in the Middle East? They canceled it. The line? It's done. No, they're doing that? No, I just saw a thing that got canceled. Wait, fully canceled? Yeah, we're done. I think they built a couple houses. That's the one where they. Also, because it was. That's Dubai, right? Dubai would put a lid on it. It was a ridiculous idea. Hmm. They canceled it fully? What if we put a giant mirror in the middle of the desert? Yeah. Nothing will go wrong. That actually really disappoints me. That was the first city that seemed like it would be from, like, cyberpunk or something. You know what I mean? What is this show? What do we talk about normally? We're going to talk about rookies of last season and how they fared. Because this is a fantasy football podcast. Yes, it is. And we are the hosts of that show. It is Tuesday, February 17th. Welcome in one and all. Ultimate DraftKit pre-order available at ultimatedraftkit.com. Order by March 1st, and you'll be entered to win a Listener League spot to play with us. The Listener League winner of this past year sequentially beat myself, I think, then Mike, and then Jason to win the title. Jason really laid down on the tracks. I beat myself in the championship. To be fair, I was in the championship. To be fair. Yeah, so the very worthy winner is what I'm saying. My team was awesome, and it got beat. Yeah, I felt good about mine, and it went down. Lowest price of the year as well, ultimatedraftkit.com. Our quick question of the day, kind of around wide receivers. What wide receiver are you the most nervous for for next year? There could be a lot of reasons why. Things that you saw over this past year, free agency, you know coaching changes and any reason is fine but is there a receiver that comes to mind where you are a very nervous right here right now yeah i mean for me i don't think i need to really explain the reasons if you paid any attention to football last year mika a big boo that's right uh and and that drop really hurt him uh when gronk came out and said mika a big boo that was the turning point for Emeka Egbuka. He said that on a very large NFL pre-show. Yeah, pre Egbibu, okay, he was 89 yards per game, 18 fantasy points per game. We're talking overall wide receiver one territory. Post Egbibu. To start the year, in his first five games, it was the second most fantasy points of all time to start a career behind Pukunakua, just in front of Malik Nabors. And then Igbig Boo happened, and from that point on, 41 yards per game, six fantasy points a game. That is the obvious reason why I am nervous. This is a player who I loved in college, made him a my guy going into last year. He is a good wide receiver. He was talked up through the entire camp process. Baker talked about this rookie is coming in, looks like a vet, does everything right, loves him as a man just espoused as much as he could about this rookie like telling people hey he is the real deal you come out first five weeks of the season obviously it was correct so what in the freaking heck happened to make it to where you couldn't throw the ball to him he had all uncatchable passes when the ball went his way he would drop it i i am i am really nervous because I feel like I'm so invested in Ibuka on a number of levels that I feel like my normal default reaction would be to find a super clear path to tell you why he'll be fine. That's how I feel like my default reaction would be in this situation. I feel biased towards his success. I'm rostering him and had him as a potential keeper. He won't be a keeper anymore. I just love what I saw in the field and the player and yet I can't get on this podcast and be like well I'm not worried about it at all it's totally fine like he'll be totally totally fine it's not a big deal because I don't believe it because the path that you would describe happened for him when it all went wrong he got the opportunity to be the dude Mike Evans was injured Chris Godwin was gone it's like hey wow this great rookie step up and that's when he stepped down so we don't know the status of mike evans current free agent uh i don't think it's he had gotten he got hurt too and there's a lot of talk ever since the hamstring injury for him not the same player yeah i mean i i don't believe the situation around him really makes an impact if mike evans is there if mike evans is gone, Chris Godwin is fully healthy, if McMillan is a huge part of it, I think it's irrelevant. It's all about Ibuka. Is it a mental thing? Was it a physical thing? Was it maybe a little bit of Baker in there too because Baker just had blinders on when he threw to Ibuka? I believe it's going to work. I will have to when we start statting out the UDK player by player, start at the team level, look at how many passing yards I think Baker's going to have, the percentages it goes. I'm going to put Emeka Ibuka as a player that I believe is going to... Your chips are in? My belief is in. I'm holding some chips back. Not all the chips, yeah. Because I'm nervous. Look, my player that I'm most nervous for at wide receiver, this is not going to be a surprise. I think a lot of people are annoyed, nervous, all of that. For the first time this morning, I actually thought about maybe an unfortunate comp. Before you give the name, I think it's the connection here of being nervous about Emeka Ibuka and being like, your guy, you're going to name. You can name if you want. Okay, it's Marv. It's Marvin Harrison. I mean, this was. Spoiler alert. You're going into years. Why would you do that? I'm so sorry. But it's like, hey, year two, first round wide receiver, Ohio. This is wide receiver you. Nothing. He will be just fine. And then Marv was not. Oh, you're saying Abuka's one year behind on that same path? Yes. Potentially. Look, here's the comp I started thinking about with Marv and what people are going to have to reconcile. And the nervousness, it's across the board. Who's the quarterback? New head coach. Michael Wilson's emergence. Trey McBride is the true number one and will remain the true number one. And if Michael Wilson gets more work because, I don't know, if I'm Mike LaFleur and I turn on the tape, I saw a lot from Michael Wilson. I didn't see much from Marvin Harrison. He had three weeks in his first 29 games as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. Mike, there is a player that plays for Pittsburgh who you begrudgingly kind of got on board with at the very, very end, but mostly hated all offseason, and his name is? Mike Caff. DK Mike Caff. I would like to file a motion. To remove your name from his name? Motion denied. There's a reality for Marvin Harrison where he never, ever, ever meets any of your expectations for superstardom, but settles into the worst version of DK Metcalf that you could find. Yeah. That is. Yeah. That's what I. Yeah. When I watch Marvin Harrison, like everything I saw from Michael Wilson was better than what I've seen from Marvin Harrison. Marvin Harrison has more often than not, not made the big play, not made the difficult play. he has made a handful in two years of plays where i was like oh and the rest have been very pedestrian even the production it's plays any wide receiver should make it's it's michael pittman which is no it's not disrespect to michael pittman but it's a good wide receiver it's like dude that's not who marv was drafted to be you spent too much draft capital to get michael pittman or the worst version of Metcalf you were searching after a hall of famer his papa yeah you were searching after a world-class wide receiver I I still um I still believe I still believe and there is enough on tape I know you're you're saying that Michael Wilson honestly Michael Wilson on tape definitely looked better than Marvin Harrison he did watching Ohio State tape or I remember the Ohio State tape But, I mean, in the first nine weeks of the season before he got injured, 55% of his games, he was a wide receiver two or better. Like, that's a good clip for— Two? Wide receiver two? Yeah. That's a real— Yeah. Okay, how about the same exact thing? So, half the time he was a wide receiver two or better? I think you're making my point. I don't think you understand the— I think Mike is two. I don't think you understand the percentages of, I mean, outside the top like four or five wide receivers who are up there 80-90% of the time, that's not a bad rate for a wide receiver at all. But we want top 12. Okay. So you're telling, let me put it this way, 45% of the time he wasn't even a wide receiver too. Correct. On a week. Sure. Yes. Okay. You can't get him with the, whoopie! Lizzie's facts, get out of here. Let me read you DK Metcalf's fantasy finishes in his career. 32-7, 12-18, 16-31, 26. I hope that's not what we're reading off in five years. That's all I'm saying about Marv. Do I want him to succeed? Of course. But his play is so inconsistent right now, whether those numbers are you know those numbers notwithstanding his play on a play basis is inconsistent The great ones don do that The great ones they don go ping between what are you doing on that play and, oh, that was nice. That's my point. And I'm really nervous. I'm really nervous because who's playing quarterback for Arizona? How long is the journey going to be from here to relevance? The quarterback issue is probably the biggest issue with Mark. I think it's Kyler. My guy that I'm nervous about is another first round wide receiver. Another top 10 wide receiver is Romo Dunze of the Chicago Bears. And the like a Buka the first month of the season was great for fantasy because Mr. Rome put up five touchdowns in four games. five touchdowns in four games will absolutely keep you afloat. So Rome appeared in – he got hurt at the end of the year. He missed five of the regular season games, but he played two games in the playoffs. So you're talking 15 – I'm sorry, 14 games. He was over – do you guys know the average to get to 1,000 yards now with 17 games? It's like 59 yards. Yeah. He was – which that's – for fantasy, that's garbage. If you're telling me you're averaging 59 yards a week, that's not going to get it done. And even that mark, he hit it five times. Five? Five. I'm counting the playoff games too, which maybe you're like, hey, I'm not going to count the playoff games because he was coming off the injury. I'm going to count them because the issue is Colston Loveland, Mr. Loveland, Luther Burden. DJ Moore is already not even in the equation anymore, at least in my opinion, for fantasy of who can be. Not fantasy, correct. in the financial equation. Oh, yes. He's a Chicago Bear. I'm saying he won't – we aren't worried about DJ Moore or saying, hey, guys, I think the number one target for Chicago still might be DJ Moore. I think that that is not happening. But you have two other guys who are top contenders to be that for the Chicago Bears. Mr. Loveland was not even really – he wasn't part of the equation when Rome was having the good games at the beginning of the year. I'm very concerned for him, especially considering the investment into Rome. It's like Marv, where Ibuka kind of fell a little bit in rookie drafts compared to a first-round wide receiver normally. But people were in on Rome. People were very in on Rome. And I'm just like, I don't know that there is a path for him to ever become anything close to what he was drafted to be. These three names, I think at one point if you threw them all on a dynasty roster, you'd be... Oh, you'd be... Oh, my gosh. Maybe like three weeks into last year. I've got the future of the national football league on my roster. I will have a dynasty in our dynasty league. Yeah. And now you're hoping like, oh, tell me one of them works out. So put them in order of nerves for you, Jason. Like most nervous to least nervous about. Because it sounds like Marv is your least nervous probably. um yeah i i think i'm most nervous about rome um not based on what i've seen from him specifically more based on what i saw from loveland and even luther burden the fact that the bears i think are going to be able to spread the ball around and rome to me profiles now as a touchdown dependent player he is not going to be the alpha but she he can be good at that yeah yeah oh absolutely he could have a season where he you know only has 60 receptions but has over a thousand yards and you know nine touchdowns and is really good for fantasy that's you know that's fine but um his pathway like if the touchdowns don't come he might be the third wide receiver on his team can we just spread the production from Caleb Williams into all the quarters of the game please so we can just see normalcy uh I'm probably the most nervous about a buka in that bunch sure i i and i probably i would probably be i'd probably be the least nervous about marv too of those three i think that's my because he is the abuka could be the one two three four or five pass catching option rome could be three or four marv it's going to be two or three my list would be i'm most nervous about rome second would be marv i'm least concerned about abuka yeah okay well that makes me happy mike persuade me all right for the no not now oh just like throughout the entire offseason just persuade me keep saying nice he's gonna need a constant drip that's it positivity that's it i mean mike evans is the first shoe that has to drop yes off the team and into the hall of fame oh yeah let's do it let's do it fourth ballot hall of Fame. Yeah. Wide receiver. I am curious about current best ball ADP on these three players. Oh, yeah. If you haven't seen it, what order do you think they're being drafted in? Oh, this is awesome. Wow. We're in best ball? I'm going to guess. Okay. Upside. I'm going to guess that Adunze is going ahead of Marv. And I'm going to guess that Abuka is going behind both. Okay. You're correct on one, incorrect on another. I'll tell you in a second. We're playing Mastermind right now okay yeah um crap okay i think the first person would be that's impossible there's only three names yeah you just gotta say one i'll go shoot your shot i'll go marv marv abuka room it is marv last yeah as the wide receiver 33 yeah two years wide receiver 28 and abuka is still being drafted pretty hot and heavy wide receiver 23. Okay. Okay. Okay. Luther Burden wide receiver 22. Yeah, that's right, baby. That's right. That feels dumb. Just another on the year of Mike that came on at the end. I don't know if we can actually hit, but he is so good. See, Luther Burden. He's nasty. Here's the thing. Both Luther Burden and Roma Dunze, I think they're both super talented and they share the exact same problem, which is... Colston Levin. Yeah! There was a switch in the NFL headquarters that said, what is happening? And Mike turned it to what I want to happen. That is literally... Click! But Luther Burden is going to siphon off both these guys, and then each one of those two, they'll take turns. They'll be like, oh, Luther is so good. Look, oh, Rome sucks. And then Rome will get two touchdowns in a row. You'll be like, ah, Luther's done now. Rome's stepping up. It's just going to be like that forever. all right we're gonna take a break we're skipping news we're pre-recording this show by a couple of days and we're jumping into a rookie review all right here we go rookie review all right we're gonna take a little uh walk through the positional groups for the rookies in 2025 and compare them historically. And we're going to start with the quarterback position. So we want to see how this quarterback rookie class compared to previous years. Over the last decade, we only had four years where multiple rookie quarterbacks average 17-plus fantasy points per game in their starts. Hard to do for rookie quarterbacks. So four times in 10 years or about as many times as Marv is a wide receiver. And 17 points per game, the reason we're using that metric, that's basically what the quarterback 12 is on average over any given season. So this year there were multiple. There were two rookie quarterbacks who hit that mark. And it's in. Pam Ward. Nope. Oh. No, no, no. It's Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck. Now what's interesting is neither of them really had this like, it wasn't like the whole season. Right? Tyler Shuck came on at the end. Jackson Dart had a nice run. injury what's going on good run injury yeah so nice individual run injury yeah so it's interesting jackson dart tyler shuck i mean they were the most exciting rookie quarterbacks both from an nfl and a fantasy perspective it wasn't cam ward although he played better over the second half of the year he did probably had the probably had the least total at his disposal i would say in terms of weapons, offensive line, all of it. For sure? For sure. Yes. I would say for sure. I mean, I know Chris, I love Chris Olave, but there was not much else to work with. Chris Olave is a great player. Juwan Johnson is a serviceable tight end. I think if you switch the quarterbacks, if you switch the quarterbacks, you'd be saying, Calvin Ridley still had it. And you had Epic Isle Manor, and you had Chico Conquo. I would disagree. Watching them, they were not good. And then I'm also including that coaching. Sure, coaching. Dart is the ceiling play. He is the far scarier player who keeps running headfirst into the ground and into defenders and sometimes his offensive line. And I am a little bit nervous about Matt Nagy being the mastermind of the offense for the Giants. We talked about the Callahan stuff. He's the passing game coordinator. He's not as high on the level as Nagy is. Nagy has like two years of success, and those were with Mahomes. And then he had years of not being great with Mahomes, and then he had his own team, and it was awful. He's not taking a better role somewhere else. But Dart is the player who he runs. So for fantasy football, that's what we want. Tyler Shuck might end up being the guy because he can make all the throws. He does run enough to boost the floor. And his coach gives his – like Kellen Moore, I mean, you know, we get hot and bothered by a lot of different coaches, and people might be like, I'm tired of hearing about it. Wherever Kellen Moore has gone, there has been fantasy goodness because of how he runs his offense, specifically fast-paced. When you get multiple snaps more per game over the course of the season, it really, really adds up. So while Dart is the one I prefer, no risk it, no biscuit, I think it could easily end up being Tyler Shuck who's just this real steady top six to eight quarterback for fantasy. I think one of the best things Kellen Moore did was entrust Tyler Shuck to throw the football and make bigger plays. Yes. And give him responsibility. Like sometimes these offensive coordinators can just try to do too much protecting the young player. And see what you have. You don't get to see enough. I think they protected him in the right way, which was via Spencer Rattler. Sure. They gave him time to not just. Just by comparison to Spencer Rattler. Look how good Shuck is. but having Spencer Rattler win the job starting week one and and letting Shuck have the time on the bench that could have been helpful for him even though he played 20 years of college so fantasy wise looking at I mean those are two guys over 17 fancy points per game in their starts and Jackson Dart by the way fifth best among rookie quarterbacks ever averaging 41 rushing yards per game in those starts but among the quarterbacks that have done that have gone over 17 fantasy points per game in year one 50 of them were a top five quarterback within the next two years that's wild so um shoot your shot right i mean uh year two jumps for lamar jackson justin herbert kyla murray for fantasy wise i agree with mike if you have to call your shot on one of these guys being top five which is a real fantasy asset It got to be Jackson Dart with the incredible amount of rushing that he does He did all that without Malik. Yeah, I mean, you want to talk about the worst receiving core, Wandale. I think Wandale's good. No, Wandale's good, but I'm saying that's his best. He's not as good as Chris Olave. Agreed. So maybe Dart. I mean, all three of these guys did not have a ton to work with. um there you go so you know look at those other quarterbacks who hit 17 plus fancy points per game there was some regression in year two um baker mayfield cj stroud bo nix those are players that their fancy points per game decreased by three fancy points per game um we might have been having that conversation about jay daniels had he gotten more of the season too like jason brought up frequently how nice their schedule was in his rookie season year two we didn't see like when we did the true series and we talked about jayden for a minute like we just didn't see the peak games in the upper you know in the few that he got but um yeah and we'll see where cam ward falls in next year with i mean maybe uh an extremely talented wide receiver being added to the roster and some offensive line improvements they gotta do something and spending a lot of that that capital new head coach new offense coordinator brian dable like there is a lot of reasons i mean being drafted at the one-on-one buys him time i mean bryce young is still playing because if bryce young was drafted in the second round he would have been moved on from already and that that's where cam ward can compete with um tyler shuck and and dart from not so much start but shuck you know if if things go wrong the rug can get pulled if things go wrong for cam ward it won't get pulled but he'll probably i would still definitely bet on both dart and shuck over do you do you realize i mean when you look behind the scenes i know the fantasy numbers weren't prolific or anything and again his weapons sucked but i'm looking at cam ward's game log right here right he started the year and he threw four touchdowns and what looks like one two three four five six interceptions okay you come out of the bye week and i know we said the coaching change happen but also the bye week and getting into the speed of the league you realize from the bye week on he threw two four six eight ten touchdowns and one pick i didn't realize the interception he didn't throw an interception he threw one interception from week 10 on if the entire season on a team that was constantly losing ball games and had to had to throw the football i i think that that is what you we all said well he looks better yeah i think that was a big part of the equation was like you're now running the offense they were they were coming back in some of these games um so i mean i didn't know that either i didn't know the touchdown to interception ratio was that good in the second half of the year but i don't think people should be out on cam ward of he needs to have some time to develop have competent coaches around him it's just the he's more of a pocket passer. You know what those, after the bye week, he had right out the gate two games with 30-plus rushing yards. Okay, that's like, we would definitely take that. That's really solid. But then the remaining, what, six games? He surpassed 10 rushing, or he hit and surpassed 10 rushing yards twice. So it's just, it doesn't, it won't be there for fantasy because he'll be a pocket passer. What pick do they have? Four or five? Yeah, around there. I mean, they're probably the top, at least one of the highly mocked teams to go, Jordan Tyson, Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate. If they get one of those guys, that'll be exciting. They need to give him one of those guys. As the archetype of the pocket passer, he'll just fluctuate. Oh, for sure. So Dart and Shuck, because they're running more, it's just better for our game. All right, let's look at the running back position. Over the last decade, on average, we have had three rookies finish as top 24 running backs, either looking at points per game or total points. So rookie running backs, at least three on average. So you look at this here, and this is perfect timing because we just on the Thursday show last week talked about how there were five rookie running backs that finished in the top 24 in fantasy points per game. And that's, I mean, we've only seen that in 2020. But only points per game because they didn't play all their games, basically. This is a weird season. Jempsie, Travion, Hampton, Harvey, Judkins. But we also talked about how they were the literal five lowest efficiency running backs as well. So from a yards per carry standpoint, I thought that that was kind of interesting. But we got five. We got five of those names, but I don't necessarily think that any of them felt like that Bucky Irving-level team addition because of the injuries, because of the inconsistency of when you knew you were going to get it from them. I think Travion had his nice window for sure, and Gentty did too at the end of the season. Judkins seemed really impressive. Yeah, I think all these rookies showed enough in their rookie season in bursts and stretches for extreme excitement for most all of them going forward, TBD on the Judkins injury recovery process, outside of that, then it's really... Harvey's at the bottom of my list of those five. Is he at the bottom of the list for you guys? Probably at the bottom of the list. I fully expect J.K. Dobbins to re-sign and be back with the Broncos, and that'll be a full-time share. You're hoping that there is a year-two leap in workload and trust for now he's somewhat of a veteran running back. Hampton, they shouldn't have Najee there anymore. I think Hampton is very, very exciting going forward. He showed enough and will be the guy from day one. It'll be interesting. You want to see the efficiency get better for all of them, but here's the numbers behind the numbers here. Among the running backs who were top 24 in year one, so there's five of those guys this year, 79%. 79% of them were top 12 the next year. Yes, it is an incredibly good bet to make. But it's like, so the example is, you know, McCaffrey, Kamara, Jameer Gibbs, pass catchers. You have to be a pass catcher to get into the top 12 unless you're Derrick Henry and you're getting 12-plus touchdowns. It sort of feels like Judkins is the only one not in that category of these five. Which is not fair to Judkins. Judkins can catch. In college, he caught at least my memory. Can he catch or can he like Ken Walker catch? i mean it's just it can you can you be reliable in that part of the game and it's like like judkins you know his last two years in college 22 receptions in both of them it feels like he's part of his profile they're just using him wrong uh yeah and it's also what else do you have around like trabion is gonna be yeah i know the cleveland browns exactly what else do they have around dylan sampson was a very capable pass catcher for them sure i'm just saying like harvey's the pass catcher. Travion's the pass catcher. Gentry's the pass catcher. No, Travion should be the pass catcher. Unfortunately, Ramondre got a ton of passes. That's true. Yeah, that's true. But Travion is the most interesting to me because what he showed is that when he was all alone, he was a dominant force that made the offense better. Right. Gentry was already alone. And then when Ramondre came back, they still said, Ramondre's our starter. And then you go one of the playoffs and you had team they still will yeah him and harvey feel the same mish i agree more explosive for trevion i agree i mean yeah what's the adp like i see jente's at 11 hampton's at 15 or 16 where is where are the other names like you're gonna have scadaboo coming back who we don't get to talk about but really scadaboo is being drafted in front of hendo harvey and Judkins and that's the order Hindo Harvey Judkins yeah yes I think we do that's a tough one man we will need health information on Skadaboo and Judkins before we know where we should be drafting them I mean if I knew Cam Skadaboo was fully healthy he'd be right up there with Hampton to me there were big time flops in that same category only 33 percent of them but in year two losing about 2.6 fantasy points per game Damian Pierce Javante Williams Bucky Irving Clyde Edwards a layer who was a top 25 back as a rookie by the way that was the other five running back here you ready for the names so 2020 john the taylor yes yeah you're still good uh james robinson oh yeah antonio draft capital matters gibson yep deandre swift hanging around and then ceh whoops um so let's take a break and we'll talk wide outs and tight ends All right, let's look at the wide receiver position since 2019. Did you have something you wanted to add, Jason? Later. Why'd you raise your hand then? Well, no, I'm just excited. I would like to say something at the end of the show. Call on me in about three to five minutes. I need to say something in about 15 minutes. I can essentially lay this out. Since we're between running backs and wide receivers, I think it is worth looking at the overarching view of how the draft class was expected to play out versus how it did play out and how that compares from 2025 to this incoming class of 2026 because they are inverse. Last year was a running back heavy draft class where everyone was like, man, it's so deep. There are so many great running backs. There's super high-end talent. And then the next tier are guys that can be real difference makers. Wide receivers, there's like a guy or two we like, and then it's pretty weak. And that totally played out. It was just true. And we'll talk about that in a second when we look at what usually happens with wide receivers versus what actually happened with wide receivers. But this year, the expectation going in is the exact opposite. It's a very deep wide receiver draft class. There isn't a definite Malik neighbors, Jamar Chase. Yeah, I know. But it's. You don't feel that way? I love Tyson. I think he is. Is he your. He's my number one. He is currently right now. Is he your guys' both? Yeah. Right now he is. I didn't know he was your one. I love it. But the wide receivers, there's a lot. There could be five or six wide receivers drafted in the first round this year. That's great. Running backs. yeah you've got love who you'll if if you don't know the the rookies yet you know you'll know him and then okay there's a guy or two you can like and it's it's pretty weak man so I expect this year to play out um opposite of last year I think I think you want to invest in rookie wide receivers and probably avoid the uh middle tier rookie running backs but probably yeah definitely a good thing to mention as we get towards uh this next crop of you know you're in the dynasty past you're looking at where we have our pre-draft rookie rankings you know it changes ebbs and flows year to year and a lot of you know we were talking about this with the nil and with the collegiate level a lot of players are going back you know we had some quarterbacks we thought were coming out they're not going to come out you might have a one or two year delay until you start getting maybe even better draft classes than ever before because you've stayed in college for a couple more years it's just you got to catch up to that if guys are going back and taking the nil money right yeah it is worth noting i mean we don't know how many guys are going to go back to college in 2028 but right now i know it early but you know for the dynasty players out there 2027 draft class looks really good All right wide receivers Since 2019 we had at least four rookie wide receivers finish inside the top 36 every single year. Last year, it was BTJ and Neighbors and McConkie and Marv and Xavier Worthy. In 2025, we had two. Exactly, and one of them... and they weren't big fantasy. Like one was the rookie of the year, Tedderall McMillan, and his fantasy finish was 17. And the other was Emeka Abuka, and he finished at 20. So, and then Luther Burden is sitting there and he didn't contribute over a long enough period of time to matter. He was hurt at the beginning. And it's exciting, but yeah, it was definitely, I mean, Brian Thomas was the number four wide receiver last year. Malik Neighbors was seven. McConkie was 12. We had three top 12. This year we had two top 20 and they were barely in there. This was the fewest receiving yards of any wide receiver rookie class since 2018. So, to your point. What we thought was going to happen, happened. And I know that there was more excitement when the Packers stupidly took Matthew Golden in the first round. Because it's like, oh, good, another first round wide receiver. But the expectation. Did he end up not doing much? He didn't do first round caliber. I think he did exactly what most people thought he would do, but not the Packers. You mean scoring the playoffs? Yeah, for the first time. That was too funny. Yeah, I mean, fewest wide receiver yards of any class in 2018. So, you know, Travis Hunter, it seemed like there was an emergence about to happen. There was like one game, right? Yeah. It was that big game. It was in London. And now all of a sudden, because the emergence of the other wide receivers, Parker Washington looking good. Yeah, he had the 14 targets, eight catches, 101, and a touchdown. And then it's like, went into the bye week and got hurt over the bye. Yeah, but now there's talk about maybe they focus him more on cornerbacks since they kind of don't need him at wide receiver. Which, yeah, that could delete some value. Yeah, you just delete a player. And Jaden Higgins, you know, he had his moments, but he's mixed in with Jalen Knoll, and some of it was injury to Nico Collins. Hated. Jaden Higgins was a name I thought about talking about for our opening segment, but it's like he doesn't have the – Not important enough. Yeah, he doesn't carry the weight with the name. The fact that as games got more important, the rookies played less for the Houston Texans was very concerning. That is the complete opposite of what should happen if a team is confident that you're developing. Can I make a counter argument to that? Yes. In 15 minutes. Yeah. Talk to me later. I'm preparing it right now. What Higgins did when he was on the field was very good. He wasn't on the field as much. And I think that that is more coaching rather than him not stepping up and just taking it over. But going into next year, he's not a rookie anymore. And I think the coaches are going to say, okay, now is the time to trust and blah, blah, blah. I guess my only counter counterpoint would be that I didn't. You're making it now? I saw a solid receiver play from Higgins, but not the stuff I saw from Tett or Abuka at his peak. Oh, certainly. Or Burden. So it just seemed like, is this guy going to be kind of locked into wide receiver, two, three territory? Receivers should get stronger as the season goes. You should not see less playing time. That's a red flag. Maybe it goes away because Higgins was an interesting prospect, what, a second-round pick? I'm okay with the player, but hate the ending. I think you're more likely to see one of these names emerge than Jaden Higgins as a fantasy value in the next three years, which is I'm going to give you some names. You pick your favorite. Just give me your favorite. They're all Mike's favorite. Literally, they actually might all be his favorite. Kyle Williams, Isaac Dislaw, Pat Bryant, Jalen Knoll, Chimray Dike. Do not forget, for goodness sakes, about Torrey Horton. Sure. Because Cooper Cup's time, it's ending, and Torrey Horton was flashing five touchdowns and then forgotten about because – and Super Bowl champ. He had 13 receptions and five touchdowns. And then Tez Johnson kind of opportunistically. But is there a name in there that you think, like, if you had to bet on one of those guys being, you know, a wide receiver two perennially. Is there a name? The one I would expect to be the most productive next year is Pat Bryant, but it's because of the opportunity. The way I saw it, anyways, playing out was that Pat Bryant was kind of solidifying himself as the number two guy behind Courtland Sutton, but then he just got hurt like every single game. You know, Williams, it's tough. He had 10 catches. He had three touchdowns. He showed the big playability. I don't know what Vrabel's plan will be for Kyle Williams. Will he just continue to be that type of a field-stretching gadget player? And then Tesla is, oh, gosh. If we ever got to unleash Tesla, it would be incredibly fun. But Amon Ross St. Brown and Jameson Williams in front of you. And Sam Laporta. And Laporta. It's like you – he needs the runway to clear before he even gets a chance. Better make your big plays. Yes. Yeah, Horton is the one that I think is going to be – he's pretty interesting to me and maybe more forgotten about. Yeah, and I would throw Tim Ray Dike out there as interesting because he probably did the most this year of all of these wide receivers that you just named. And then if you look at how good he was on special teams, it just showed when he was on the NFL field against NFL defenders. Yeah, he belongs. He is good. He is electric. And so if he gets more involved as a wide receiver, obviously the new coaching staff and all that, he's showed enough to break out. And then I will not stand for it. Despite him playing every game and doing nothing for the entire season. I still love Trey Harris. Oh, dude, I'm in. I'm in on Trey Harris. Trey Harris is a perfect sleeper candidate. You're going to have Mike, Mick, Dan, Yole. Nice. First try. I thought we were going to Mickey D's. Oh, you don't want to put the D's on there. But it's like a wholesome, you know. Anyways, well, yeah, Trey Harris is definitely interesting. At the tight end position, looking at the Ricky Review. And we're getting a photo of the old school Michael McDonald. Okay. Oh, forget. Oh, my. Not in love anymore. Oh, we should just play that. Michael McDonald rips. Yacht Rock? Dude, he rips, man. Hot rock. Is that what that was called? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It makes so much sense. Apparently, Brooks was hoping you'd do an impression of Michael McDonald. You know I can't. Rock for uppity rich people. We were definitely jamming on that in the office at one point. I remember that. I mean, it's regulators, dude. That's how much it rips. Warren G was like, dude, Michael McDonald rips. Let's go. Oh, my goodness. All right, tight end position as we close out our rookie review. Thank you. I was hoping. 2025 gave us the most targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns by rookie tight ends ever. Makes sense. Targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns. Loveland, Fannin, Warren. Let's go. Yeah, and I believe it's bright futures for all three of them. And then there are still, behind those three excellent wide receivers, there are still guys that could i mean i i don't think terrence terrence ferguson is is done they use meows and taylor oh i thought oh i thought you were saying ferguson is sorry no no no oh i was i was just saying another rookie but my favorite of the of all the tight ends behind is ron de gedston who looked outstanding in in stretches this season what a great tight end draft class This year, not a very deep tight end. Not very deep, but you could still have – I mean, Sadiq is going to go very, very high. Sadiq will be interesting. And then some people are more – I mean, more in on, what, Stowers? Yeah, there's some – Claire? Yeah, there's some names. And if you want to hear more about the rookie tight end class, we kind of previewed the guys at the top on this week – or last week's Dynasty pod, and I dropped – I already got it. It's not going to surprise you, Andy. there's already a tight end who I really really like oh my gosh Ben Sennett's brothers in this class yeah Mike has a tight yes I do he wants a big tight end that just mows people down punish punish people be like what what crime am I guilty of I am bigger than you that is the crime and you will be punished and that's why he did not like Meowson Taylor correct still waiting to break a tackle is that what we're oh we are still waiting. Can we get rid of the old reframe that rookie tight ends take a while to develop considering the last four years three years they didn't need to develop anymore? I think that the only thing that you still hold on to is you don't assume that when a rookie tight end doesn't have a breakout season that it can't still happen I hear what you're saying That's a Gadsden No, the new started for Washington, year three tight end breakout. I'm not going to doubt Mike until this year is definitively over with something horrible happening to one of his predictions. Unleash the senator! We're not in love anymore. We got to get this show over so we can just blast some Michael McDonald. That is correct. But yeah, Loveland, Warren, you talked about some of the other names. I think Ferguson's interesting. Yes. So you two, as is Gunnar Helm. Oh, Gunnar Helm is sneaky, dude. Literally everyone. Gunnar Helm is very sneaky. Everyone, Loveland, Warren, Ferguson, Arroyo. Not so much. Okay, not all of them. Maybe. There's two, Arroyo and Mason Taylor, I am not very interested in. Because you're a Barnerman. Everyone else has a place on a dynasty roster. And I know we've talked about the trifecta several times already this offseason. But I just want to confirm, for fantasy purposes, you guys do you both have Loveland as the one you would draft first? Of the three? I won't have to draft him though. You know what I mean? He'll already be on my team. Because he'll be a keeper. For my future title team. I just want to remind the listeners that our keeper situation is you're not keeping him at a pick. You're keeping your best three players. So he will be one of your keepers? Yeah. So it's like drafted him in the first three rounds. Would you do that? He's trying to make this bad for me. Sir. He's trying to make this bad? Loveland's not going to the first three rounds. How many picks do you have in the first three rounds? You can't let go of your hatred of Loveland. No. I don't hate Loveland. Yes, you do. I'm mocking keeping him. He's not going to go in the top three rounds. Where would he go? Fourth round? I think Loveland will be a fourth or fifth rounder, yeah. He won't be in the fifth. Our situation is positional. We force positional diversity as well. So it's not like we just keep our best players. We have some rule sets in there. But I like you trying to shame my picks. It's what I would do if I didn't have any picks. I would try to make other people's players seem worse. We'll say more again. Keep again. Hit it. Hit that button. All right, we're going to say goodbye. Yeah, we're out of here. Mock draft first round next episode. Don't miss it. UltimateDraftKid.com if you just need more good rookie chat. Check it out. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter at TheFFBallers.