It's Monday, May 11, 2026. I'm Albert Moeller, and this is The Briefing, a daily analysis of news and events from a Christian worldview, coming out of the weekend so many big developments that demand our attention. I want us to look at the international level for just a moment because there are two huge stories and they come with a lot of implications. And if you're thinking about two big stories on the international scene, it's pretty easy to come up with just say two fronts, Russia, Ukraine, and Iran, Israel, and the United States. And so those are very clear hotspots in the world and both of them right now seem to be at a moment of transition. We're just not sure in either case what that transition might be. So let's start out with Russia, an astounding headline over the weekend coming from the BBC. The headline, quote, Putin says he thinks Ukraine conflict coming to an end. Now it does indeed look like Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is sending signals that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what then became the war with Ukraine might be coming to an end. And the BBC is the British Broadcasting Corporation. It's one of the biggest standard names just in terms of international news coverage. And so this is not by accident that this story appears. And it's not by accident we're talking about this. Now let's put this in a perspective of just the last several days. So the big event in Russia is the annual parade, the Victory Day Parade, which commemorates the end of World War II. What in Russian history is considered to be Russia's climactic victory in what's called the Great Patriotic War, otherwise known as World War II? Now for decades, ever since World War II, Russia or the Soviet Union told that story in its own self-serving way. But there is no doubt that Russia paid a greater price just in terms of the devastation of its territory, paid a greater price in terms of the number of Russian troops and citizens killed. There's no doubt about that. It's also true that at least for some time the Soviet Union, Joe Stalin, was complicit with it off Hitler and the Third Reich in Germany until, of course, Nazi Germany turned predictably on the Soviet Union and invaded its territory. And of course, that's a lot of the history of what Russia calls the Great Patriotic War. But the big point is this, if you're alive and you know anything about Russia's Victory Day Parade, which takes place, of course, in May and is right there on Red Square, one of the things you need to note is not what happened just days ago in Moscow, but what didn't happen. What didn't happen is that there were no big military displays. There were no big humongous Russian weapons that were shown. There were no giant artillery trucks. There were no of those very visible armaments that Russia, with rockets and missiles and all the rest that Russia has been trying to show off, going all the way back to when, of course, the Soviet Union was in power. And it was just one of the ways, it was a distinction, by the way, between the United States and other allied nations and Russia or the Soviet Union. And it was that there's a glorying in this military might. There's a glory in even the weapons and in the military marching troops by the multiple thousands parading before first the Soviet leaders and later the Russian leaders. But what made this year so different is that Vladimir Putin and Russia couldn't afford to hold the parade as usual because Ukraine, as it turns out, has been so ingenious and so aggressive with its uses of drones and other forms of missiles that in the drones in particular that Vladimir Putin and the Russian authorities couldn't afford to hold that kind of military parade in Moscow because it would have been one giant magnet for a massive undertaking by Ukraine. And Ukraine's drones and missiles have been getting through. As a matter of fact, Ukraine, a very proud nation fighting back against Russia, has actually invented a whole new way of war. And that way of war has a great deal to do with these autonomous weapons and, of course, with the drones, some of them striking deep, deep inside Russian territory. So much so that you have an absolute shattering of any notion of Russian invincibility. And it's clear that Vladimir Putin and the Russian military thought that they were going to start this war against Ukraine and that it would be over in a matter of days. But instead, it turns out that at least at this point, and again, the military situation can always change. Ukraine can always show a weakness we're not expecting. But at this point, it is clear that Ukraine has been holding out courageously and ingeniously for so long. And here's the great embarrassment to Russia, the great embarrassment to Vladimir Putin. The other reason this Victory Day parade would have been hugely embarrassing to the Kremlin is that the war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted longer than Russia's involvement in World War II, than the great patriotic war, as Russia calls it. So in other words, rather than celebrating this great moment of Russian victory over this massive foe of Nazi Germany, instead, what you've got is a parade being held with the armaments put out of view and with a lot of things just hidden out of sight, because Russia can't afford to parade them right there in the Kremlin because they would be too big a target. Now it is also interesting that Russia wanted a ceasefire during that time, and there was some accommodation. But even then, you had Russia unwilling to put those weapons out there just to attract those drones, missiles, and other forms of Ukrainian attack. This is a game changer. And here's the thing. If you are a strong man, an autocrat in this kind of system, you have to appear strong and invincible. You have to be the savior of the nation. You can't be the guy that gets into this kind of quagmire. So that's one of the reasons why it's going to be really interesting to see what goes on in Russia. You have a recent article by The Wall Street Journal. It's by Walter Russell Mead, a keen observer of the international scene. The headline is Vladimir Putin, the man who broke Russia. That's indeed what could become his legacy. And he's got to worry that that is exactly how he will be remembered. Another Wall Street Journal article, this one by Yaroslav Trupimov, and he writes, here's the headline, quote, Putin's strongman images fading as Ukraine brings war home to Russia. And let's just say again, back in January of this year, the Ukraine war surpassed the Great Patriotic War in terms of its length. A former Putin speechwriter said to The Wall Street Journal, quote, every day since then adds to the sentiment that we aren't worthy of the memory of our grandfathers. Putin created this cult of grandfathers, and now it's backfiring on him. Alexander Bonov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. He's also the author of a bestseller about the demise of autocratic regimes elsewhere in the world. He said this simply. Putin is perceived today as an old grandpa, a grandpa unaware about the real state of affairs in people's lives. He went on to say he's no longer seen as the protector. He's no longer seen as Superman. Okay, so here's a big lesson from world history. If indeed you pose as Superman, if you launch a war claiming to be Superman. And here's another headline you just need to factor in here. The estimates are now that Russia has lost something like 350,000 soldiers to death, 350,000 if you claim to be Superman. And you cause a military action. You lead an invasion that leads not to success, but rather to the death of 350,000 soldiers, most of them young men. And by the way, you're talking about Russia, which already had a dramatic, deadly deficit of young men. And you look at this and it is an absolute disaster. Okay, Russia is an enigma. Winston Churchill famously spoke of it in those terms. It's an enigma. And sometimes you really have to find a way of trying to express what's going on in Russia. Russian historians have tried to do this. I found one particular statement from a former US ambassador to Moscow, in this case, John Sullivan. And he was actually the US ambassador to Moscow when the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Here's the statement. And this is so essentially Russian in its character. It's one of those statements I love about Russia because it discloses so much. Listen to this quote, In Russia, they say that things don't happen fast, but when they happen, they happen fast. End quote. That's just quintessentially Russian. In Russia, things don't happen fast, but when they happen, they happen fast, which is to say, you don't see a lot of things coming, but when they come, they come fast. So it's going to be very interesting to see what happens. The death toll is mounting. Russia's economy is paying the price. Russia is bleeding out in this war. And of course, Ukraine is too, but its death toll is less. And for one thing, in this reinvented war that Ukraine is pioneering, it's using a lot of hardware rather than putting human lives on the line. And Ukraine itself has a shortage in terms of a declining birth rate and a shortage of young men. It also is operating, of course, with the courage of an invaded nation. In his most recent term, of course, the longer term, Vladimir Putin has been president of Russia since 2012. He was president before between 1999 and 2008. Between 2008 and 2012, he just switched places with Dmitry Medvedev and he became prime minister. He was still the power behind the throne. So in effect, we go back to 1999, which means 26 plus years in office, all just a reminder of the fact that sometimes in Russia, things don't happen fast. But again, Vladimir Putin's got to worry that when this thing happens, it happens fast. All right. Now, speaking about Iran, it's really interesting that right now it appears to be a situation of breakdown in terms of the talks between the United States and Iran. And President Trump has made some statements about the fact that he thought it was reaching a point of clarification. He thought we were close to a deal, et cetera, et cetera. It's hard to know what the president actually believes about this because when the president makes these statements out loud, they are effectively a part of the negotiation. So it's hard to know how much of it's a negotiating strategy and how much of it's political messaging to the United States. In most cases, it's probably a bit of both. But again, we're not in a position right now even to know. We do know this. He's very frustrated. He has expressed this frustration. President Trump has spoken very clearly about the fact that he's not only frustrated that Iran appears to be continually holding out here. And by the way, the president has said that the red line, the bottom line, is that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. It can't maintain that enriched uranium. And there are other things. But it looks like that at this point, that must be the main issue. But President Trump has spoken to something else that's very interesting. And the president has expressed frustration that Americans, including the White House, are not really sure who they're talking to when they're trying to negotiate with the leadership of Iran. And that is because what we see in Iran right now is a confused and perhaps even extremely uncertain structure of leadership. And that is a huge problem. And that huge problem is reflected in the very first article in the May, June issue of Foreign Affairs, one of the most respected foreign affairs journals, foreign relations journals in the world. And so this lead article right away gets to it. The title is The Real War for Iran's Future. And then the subhead asking the question, who will determine the fate of the Islamic Republic? And so we're told here that the crucial moment was with the American and Israeli attack. And the date here is March 1, 2026. So we're talking about just a little more than two months ago, the initial attack in the first hours of the concerted effort. And it's believed that this direct action was taken by Israel. It led to the Iranian government making an official statement. Here it is, quote, after a lifetime of struggle, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hamani drank the sweet pure draft of martyrdom and joined the Supreme Heavenly Kingdom. The broadcaster, according here to Afsan Ostavar of Foreign Affairs, went on to say, quote, the broadcaster praised Hamani for being unceasing and untiring and for his lofty and celestial spirit. As he read the announcement, people offscreen wailed when he finished, he too broke down in tears. And this is the second Ayatollah Homanay. And this, the second Supreme Leader was killed, the second Ayatollah Supreme Leader was killed with that acknowledgement coming March 1, 2026. And then for a period of about two weeks, there was no Supreme Leader. Now if you're just thinking about the title, it's interesting, isn't it? Supreme Leader, who could be higher than a Supreme Leader? The answer is no one. Supreme is a categorical word that means at the very top. But it doesn't appear that Iran's new Supreme Leader, if indeed he is the Supreme Leader, is operating in such a supreme way. The announcement then came that the council had chosen as the third Supreme Leader, and thus the clearly head leader in Iran, was to be Motah Homanay, who is after all the son of Ayatollah Homanay, who was killed in the initial military action just a matter of about two months ago. And so we're looking at the fact that a second Homanay, the son, is now declared to be Supreme Leader. But here's the thing. And it's been a long time since then. No one has seen him. No one has seen him alive. No one has actually even seen an undocked photograph of him. Western intelligence authorities believe that all the images being shown of him are either old or they are produced by artificial intelligence. In a rather significant development, the Iranian authorities did acknowledge that this third Supreme Leader has been significantly wounded in the same attack that killed his father and also killed others of his relatives. And that probably explains why he hasn't been seen. But the big issue is this. No one knows who's really in control in Iran. The assumption is that the real power right now is held by the Revolutionary Guards. And the Revolutionary Guards basically an army within an army, a separate army there in Iran, that has always basically functioned within the top power structure. So here again, foreign affairs looking at this says that it has been this way from the beginning, except for the fact that when it came to the first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Homeini, who was after all the great Ayatollah figure, who was the alternative, the rival to the Shah of Iran and thus supplanted him bringing the Islamic Revolution, he was supreme because he was really the person who started the whole thing. He was the symbolic head and then the substantial head of the entire Revolutionary Movement, the Islamic movement there in Iran. When he died just about 10 years after coming into power, the second Ayatollah Homeini, he came into power and again 35 years, but it is clear that he was able to establish a primacy even over the Revolutionary Guard that was greater than many people had expected. It appears that his son is nowhere near having that kind of power. And as a matter of fact, it isn't even clear that he has much power or is operating at all. It is interesting this article in Foreign Affairs says, quote, Iran's most likely future is thus a military-controlled authoritarian state with a theocratic figurehead. And after that, the sentence, which probably doesn't even need to be said, such a government would almost certainly be belligerent. Okay, so when we're talking about this sentence that I pointed to and I read to you, I just want to point out every word is important, quote, Iran's most likely future is thus a military-controlled authoritarian state with a theocratic figurehead. Just listen to how carefully that sentence is written. The most likely future is a government that's military-controlled, a government that takes the shape of an authoritarian state with a theocratic figurehead. So let's just think about this military-controlled authoritarian state, theocratic figurehead. In other words, there is no sign that Iran is headed in any healthy direction. We're talking about profound unhealth. And we're also talking about a situation that is so volatile that no one really knows who is in control. The assumption is that it's the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard, and it is also likely that when the Americans are even trying to have substantial conversations, we could be having conversations. The White House could be having conversations. Even intermediaries like Pakistan could be having conversations with people who can't even deliver on what they might agree to. That underlines the scale of the problem. But as we're looking at both of these together, as we're looking at Russia and Iran, let's just understand we're looking at the paradox, the parable, and the perplexity of an autocratic state. In this case, two different autocratic states. In both cases, leadership is not democratically elected. It isn't even making a claim to be representative in any kind of constitutional sense. Vladimir Putin basically made that claim, but he hasn't operated within that kind of parameter. No, the reality is we're looking at the problem of autocracy in autocratic state. Here's the thing. They can be extremely efficient until they are extremely inefficient. In a fallen world, a world shaped by so much sin, you understand why it's so important not to concentrate that sin in any kind of autocratic government outside of any kind of control. In a fallen world, that's really the last thing you would want. It's also going to be very interesting to see what happens even in the next few days, because one thing becomes clear in both of these cases. The current situation just can't last as it is. Okay, while we are as Christians thinking about living in a world corrupted by sin, here's something else we have to worry about, viruses. And of course, in the headlines right now, a Hanta virus. Now, this word's being thrown around, and I think maybe a little bit of definition will be helpful. It's certainly helpful to me. If you want the definition of a Hanta virus, the short definition I could give you that I was able to determine from medical authorities is that a Hanta virus was a strain of viruses discovered basically during the time of the Korean War. It is traceable to infection from rodents, specifically from the urine feces or saliva of infected rats. Okay, you needed to hear that on a Monday morning. We're talking here about a virus transmitted from the urine feces or saliva of infected rats. So, when you're talking about this kind of very deadly Hanta virus starting out in terms of some kind of human transmission, it usually can be traceable to contact with a, I won't mention all the substances again, let's just say what rats leave behind. And it turns out that the original couple, both of whom died in this, and of course they were on this cruise, a very expensive, very elite nature cruise, they, before getting on the cruise ship, had spent time in a dump, in a South American country. Dumps, garbage dumps. They went to see birds because garbage dumps attract birds. They were bird watchers and they wanted to see some specific birds, so they went and staked out time in the dump. Unfortunately, you know who else lives in the dump and is sometimes called the royalty of the dump because they're always there and they always seem to come out on top. The Hanta virus is particularly dangerous, its death rate by the way is somewhere between 30 and 50 percent. It's really, really high. Somewhere between 30 and 50 percent of infected human beings die. It's a very serious virus. Now there has been a lot of serious attention of course directed to this cruise ship and to those that are on it for this nature cruise. It is also interesting that even though the death rate is so high, immediate medical intervention does help a whole lot. And so medical authorities aren't really willing to say how specifically dangerous what the mortality rate is for any particular strain of the Hanta virus that is saying, look it's very dangerous and it can be in mortality very, very high. Both the husband and then the wife of that original couple died and then a third passenger also died. Others have been seriously infected. And of course the big headline news right now has to do with the fact that the ship came into Tenerife and the Canary Islands and people are going to be allowed off the ship. Non-infected people were told, asymptomatic people were told are going to be released. The other big factor here is that we're talking about a specific strain of the Hanta virus which is the Andes strain. And what makes that different is that all the other strains are believed to be non-transmissible directly from human to human. But this one strain, this Andes, just think South America, this one strain, this Andes strain is transmissible with what's defined as close contact. And that close contact requires space and time, at least according to epidemiologists. And so it just so happens that if an infected person who probably doesn't know he or she is infected is in close proximity to someone such that there can be the exchange of enough air, saliva droplets and other things like that in an enclosed space, it does appear that the virus can pass from human to human. And it just so happens that if you're trying to come up with the worst possible context which would make that more likely, you're talking about a small cruise ship or small enclosed space. And that's basically what we're talking about here, which is why epidemiologists and public health authorities all over the world have been so particularly concerned about this particular outbreak. The ship is known as the MV Hondius and it's a very expensive cruise, something between $20,000 and $30,000 per person. And it departed from Argentina in early April with only about 150 passengers along with crew members. And of course, once this began, the seriousness became very clear when they had to airlift some passengers and then passengers died. Once it was identified as this hantavirus and this particular strain, the alarms went off all through the medical community. And of course, the media has been giving this a lot of attention as well. And it's not only in the United States, it's all over the world. People are hearing this and wondering, could this be the next coronavirus? Public health authorities have appeared to want to be clear that they don't think that is the great danger here because of the difficulty of transmission. The COVID virus was far more infectious in terms of the ability to spread human being to human being with a far less exposure at stake. But of course, the other thing to note is that public health authorities are heard differently now than before the COVID crisis, quite frankly. And there's an authority, an integrity, a scientific validity crisis on the part of that entire community and I think an awful lot of people in the United States and elsewhere have something like a competing set of interests here. There is concern that this could be a very dangerous disease. And of course, that is a proper concern of the public. And there's also a concern that we may not get correct information about it as quickly and as authoritatively and as honestly as we should because again, the COVID epidemic crisis left a lot of suspicions in the minds of the public. But in any event, it does appear that this is not spreading quickly. The big question now, even as governments are trying to trace people who had contact with this cruise or left the cruise early or had contact with these people and governments are trying to decide exactly how they're going to handle these passengers as they disembark. The fact is that the public interest is entirely understandable for Christians. Let's just remind ourselves, even as we know about infectious diseases, that this is one of the products of the fall, of God's judgment upon the fall. You add sin into the experience of human beings on planet Earth and it comes with grave consequences. Death is of course the most graphic of those consequences, but sickness is another one of those consequences. Now viruses are another evidence of the fall and another evidence of our desperate need for a new creation. And of course, Christians understand we live in a dangerous world and I'm just going to end by saying it's not just viruses we have to worry about. The Telegraph in London reports about one man, an American big game hunter who was just recently trampled to death by elephants while he was stalking Antelope in Central Africa. This happened a matter of days ago and evidently some mother elephants thought that he posed a danger to baby elephants and mother elephants do what mother elephants do protecting their young and thus this big game hunter became the hunted into deadly effect. Then even more recently, just days ago, authorities in South Africa indicated the recovery of a human body. Someone who had been considered lost after he had tried to drive through flooded waters and he was unable to make it through. He ended up in the water and as it turns out, South African authorities have now confirmed he ended up inside about a 15 foot crocodile. Here's the thing when you're thinking about how horrifying all of this is we live in a dangerous world and we're not just talking about little tiny viruses. We're talking about great big 15 foot crocodiles and elephants as well. Sometimes you can see the danger. You can't. It's also two rather significant things before I leave this. Number one, the authorities picked this crocodile out as the crocodile was just resting in the sunlight on the shore because they saw a suspicious shape inside the crocodile, observable even from a helicopter. Then this when they opened the crocodile, they found not only the man, they also found several men's shoes that were not his leading to the immediate question. Where were the men who once were wearing those shoes? There are some big theological issues to reflect upon here. Very important to the biblical worldview. There are also just a couple of practical issues that do come to mind such as don't go to take pictures in a dump and don't try to drive your vehicle through a flooded river full of giant crocodiles. Folks, let's be careful out there. Thanks for listening to the briefing. For more information, go to my website at albertmolar.com. You can follow me on X or Twitter by going to x.com forward slash albertmolar. For information on the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, go to sbts.edu. For information on Voice College, just go to voicecollege.com. I'll meet you again tomorrow for the briefing. Thank you.
