Marketplace Morning Report

Tallying the cost of the Russia-Ukraine war, four years on

7 min
Feb 24, 2026about 2 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the episode examines the financial toll on both nations. Through on-the-ground reporting from Russia, it reveals how ordinary citizens face rising costs, inflation, and economic hardship, while also covering broader global trade tensions including US tariffs, Chinese export restrictions on Japanese companies, and Panama's seizure of ports operated by a Hong Kong conglomerate.

Insights
  • Russian civilians increasingly connect deteriorating living standards directly to the war's economic costs, despite official narratives framing it as a 'special military operation'
  • Four years into conflict, war has become normalized in Russian society—visible in infrastructure and daily life but no longer treated as extraordinary by residents
  • Global trade routes and geopolitical rivalry are reshaping supply chains, with the US-China competition now extending to canal control and technology export restrictions
  • US tariff policy uncertainty is creating immediate market disruption, with allies and competitors receiving different treatment and retaliatory measures being considered
  • Dual-use technology restrictions are becoming a new battleground in US-China-Japan tensions, blurring civilian and military supply chains
Trends
Economic hardship driving public sentiment shift in Russia despite state messagingNormalization of conflict in civilian populations after extended warfareEscalating US-China trade and geopolitical competition over critical infrastructureTariff volatility and policy uncertainty creating business planning challengesTechnology export controls targeting dual-use products as geopolitical toolCurrency instability in emerging markets amid political uncertaintyGerman automotive sector facing significant China market contractionStrategic port control becoming flashpoint in great power competitionAllied nations considering retaliatory trade measures against US tariffsSupply chain fragmentation accelerating across multiple regions
Companies
CK Hutchison
Hong Kong-based conglomerate whose Panama Canal port operations were seized by Panamanian authorities amid US-China r...
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Japanese industrial giant placed under Chinese export restrictions on dual-use technologies due to alleged military b...
Subaru
Japanese automotive company restricted from importing dual-use products from China as part of Beijing's sanctions
People
Steve Rosenberg
BBC correspondent reporting from Russia on economic impacts of war on ordinary citizens and local businesses
Anastasia
Russian bakery owner describing rising costs, tax hikes, and economic hardship affecting small businesses
Ivan Pavlovich
Russian apartment resident discussing rising utility bills and economic difficulties despite supporting the war effort
Leanna Byrne
BBC correspondent reporting on US tariff policy changes and international trade responses
Stephen McDonnell
BBC correspondent reporting from Beijing on Chinese export restrictions targeting Japanese companies
Quotes
"Everyone is thinking about it. People are worried, they're angry, and they're wondering how to get by."
Anastasia, Russian bakery owner~4:30
"The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising. Pensions go up, but then prices go up even more. So what do I gain? Nothing."
Ivan Pavlovich, Russian resident~6:00
"Many Russians do feel that life is getting harder, and few seem to believe it will get any easier any time soon."
Steve Rosenberg, BBC correspondent~7:00
"The UK says nothing is off the table in terms of possible retaliation."
Leanna Byrne, BBC correspondent~12:30
Full Transcript
The financial costs of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, four years on. Live from the UK, this is the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. Hello, I'm Nick Qureshi. Exactly four years ago, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of troops on both sides have been killed. On top of that, the financial cost has also been huge, most obviously for Ukraine. But Russia's economy is also hurting, as the BBC's Steve Rosenberg has been finding out. In the town of Yiliats, walk down Orginal Kidzi Street and you'll come to a butcher, a baker and an online shopping collection point. Look up and you'll see a mural. It takes up an entire side of a nine-storey block of flats. It shows the faces of five Russian soldiers. Local men killed fighting in Ukraine. The giant image hangs over this town. like the war on Ukraine hangs over Russia. I notice that passers-by are not looking up at the picture. It's as if after four years, for people here, this war is no longer something extraordinary. Driving around, I see army recruitment posters and emergency shelters in case of drone attacks. And the local pancake stand features the Latin letters V and Z symbols of Russia war on Ukraine And the fast food sign has this slogan Grab a pancake and then the whole world At a local bakery they feeling Russia economic downturn after four years of war Costs have soared. Many small businesses have been hit by tax hikes. The bakery and its customers are having to cope with rising utility bills and higher prices. The subject of money is a very important one now, says bakery owner Anastasia. Everyone is thinking about it. People are worried, they're angry, and they're wondering how to get by. In an apartment block across town, it's proving difficult and complicated to deal with a leaking pipe. In the lobby entrance, there's ice on the floor and on the walls, and the lifts stop working. Ivan Pavlovich complains to me about the water that's trickling down and about his utility bills that are going up. He concedes that life would be easier without a war on. But if I were younger, I'd go and fight, Ivan declares. The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising. Pensions go up, but then prices go up even more. So what do I gain? Nothing. In the lobby the Cold War has begun Someone is breaking up the ice and disposing of it outside Not everyone in Russia joins the dots and connects their social and economic problems with a costly war on Ukraine But many Russians do feel that life is getting harder, and few seem to believe it will get any easier any time soon. The BBC's Steve Rosenberg. Right, let's do some numbers. Germany's car exports to China plunged by roughly a third in 2025 to just $16 billion. In 2022, German auto exports to China were worth $34 billion. And Indonesian authorities are struggling to stem fools in the value of its currency, the rupee. Markets reacted badly when the country's president picked his nephew as the deputy governor of the central bank. Now the US has brought in a new flat rate tariff of 10% on global imports. It comes amid confusion over whether a 15% tariff or when that President Trump has promised to impose will come into effect. The President's announcements followed Friday's Supreme Court decision which struck down the wide ranging import taxes put in place by the Trump administration. Here's the BBC's Leanna Byrne. A new flat global US tariff of 10% was applied from midnight Washington time on Tuesday morning, with the White House still promising a further increase to 15%, hitting allies such as the UK and Australia. The likes of China and Brazil are already enjoying a lower tax on their exports than the tariff deemed illegal by the Supreme Court last week The EU has paused ratification of a deal done last year and India has paused plans to send negotiators to the US. The UK says nothing is off the table in terms of possible retaliation. I'm the BBC's Liana Byrne for Marketplace. Authorities in Panama have taken control of two ports on the Panama Canal that had been operated by the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison for more than two decades. The move comes as rivalry between the US and China escalates over global trade routes. Meanwhile, China has imposed restrictions on dual-use exports to 20 major Japanese companies, accusing them of boosting a military build-up in Japan. This includes products with a civilian purpose, but could also be used in military equipment. The BBC's Stephen McDonnell reports from Beijing. Japanese industrial giants including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Subaru and the country's space agency have had restrictions imposed on what products they can import from China. Beijing has accused Japan of remilitarising and now the country's commerce ministry has released a list of 20 Japanese entities which are blocked from buying so-called dual-use technologies from China. Details of the specific products have not been released. A further 20 Japanese entities have been put on a watch list and exporting dual-use items to them requires clearance. The Chinese government said the measures would not hurt normal trade with Japan. Stephen MacDonald reporting there. In the UK, I'm Nick Qureshi with the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service.