Tallying the cost of the Russia-Ukraine war, four years on
7 min
•Feb 24, 2026about 2 months agoSummary
Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the episode examines the financial toll on both nations. Through on-the-ground reporting from Russia, it reveals how ordinary citizens face rising costs, inflation, and economic hardship, while also covering broader global trade tensions including US tariffs, Chinese export restrictions on Japanese companies, and Panama's seizure of ports operated by a Hong Kong conglomerate.
Insights
- Russian civilians increasingly connect deteriorating living standards directly to the war's economic costs, despite official narratives framing it as a 'special military operation'
- Four years into conflict, war has become normalized in Russian society—visible in infrastructure and daily life but no longer treated as extraordinary by residents
- Global trade routes and geopolitical rivalry are reshaping supply chains, with the US-China competition now extending to canal control and technology export restrictions
- US tariff policy uncertainty is creating immediate market disruption, with allies and competitors receiving different treatment and retaliatory measures being considered
- Dual-use technology restrictions are becoming a new battleground in US-China-Japan tensions, blurring civilian and military supply chains
Trends
Economic hardship driving public sentiment shift in Russia despite state messagingNormalization of conflict in civilian populations after extended warfareEscalating US-China trade and geopolitical competition over critical infrastructureTariff volatility and policy uncertainty creating business planning challengesTechnology export controls targeting dual-use products as geopolitical toolCurrency instability in emerging markets amid political uncertaintyGerman automotive sector facing significant China market contractionStrategic port control becoming flashpoint in great power competitionAllied nations considering retaliatory trade measures against US tariffsSupply chain fragmentation accelerating across multiple regions
Topics
Russia-Ukraine War Economic ImpactRussian Domestic Inflation and Cost of LivingUS Global Import TariffsUS-China Trade CompetitionDual-Use Technology Export ControlsPanama Canal Port ControlGerman Auto Exports to ChinaIndonesian Currency InstabilityTrade Retaliation and CountermeasuresGeopolitical Supply Chain DisruptionCentral Bank Political AppointmentsMilitary Spending and Economic TradeoffsGlobal Trade Route CompetitionJapanese Remilitarization ConcernsSupreme Court Import Tax Ruling
Companies
CK Hutchison
Hong Kong-based conglomerate whose Panama Canal port operations were seized by Panamanian authorities amid US-China r...
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Japanese industrial giant placed under Chinese export restrictions on dual-use technologies due to alleged military b...
Subaru
Japanese automotive company restricted from importing dual-use products from China as part of Beijing's sanctions
People
Steve Rosenberg
BBC correspondent reporting from Russia on economic impacts of war on ordinary citizens and local businesses
Anastasia
Russian bakery owner describing rising costs, tax hikes, and economic hardship affecting small businesses
Ivan Pavlovich
Russian apartment resident discussing rising utility bills and economic difficulties despite supporting the war effort
Leanna Byrne
BBC correspondent reporting on US tariff policy changes and international trade responses
Stephen McDonnell
BBC correspondent reporting from Beijing on Chinese export restrictions targeting Japanese companies
Quotes
"Everyone is thinking about it. People are worried, they're angry, and they're wondering how to get by."
Anastasia, Russian bakery owner•~4:30
"The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising. Pensions go up, but then prices go up even more. So what do I gain? Nothing."
Ivan Pavlovich, Russian resident•~6:00
"Many Russians do feel that life is getting harder, and few seem to believe it will get any easier any time soon."
Steve Rosenberg, BBC correspondent•~7:00
"The UK says nothing is off the table in terms of possible retaliation."
Leanna Byrne, BBC correspondent•~12:30
Full Transcript