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The price cut percentage fell a little bit more than I would like, but considering everything that has gone on, not bad at all. So the headline was that housing demand was shockingly good. And part of that was the pending sales, which had a multi-year high. So tell us what is going on there. So of course, as always, the housing market shifted when, Sarah? mid-June, mid-June, 2025. And that's just based on a principle that when the 10-year yield gets to a certain level and the spreads get mortgage rates to 6.64% and under, usually we're coming from a 7% plus level. Housing demand starts to pick up a little bit. It's the flow of data. We go from lower sales, a little bit higher sales, but December, nine month high, we got that report in January. So we always tell everyone, people, Christmas and New Year's, if it's middle of the week. We didn't even write the tracker because we were protesting because we knew what was going to happen. And then everybody overread the data. They don't think Christmas and New Year's even exists. Then the demand just picked up right after the holidays, which it usually does. Then the snowstorm happened. So the snowstorm was impacting the snow state. So you got a little bit of a whole pattern there. Then picked up again. Rates were still lower, under six and a quarter for the first time in many, many years, less volatility. Then the war happened. So we're like trying to break away from here. But even with all that, weekly pending home sales, multi-year highs just for the calendar week. This doesn't mean housing is booming or anything like that, but it just shows. Get a little bit of stability. Get these other X variables out of the equation. We would have had 237,000, I believe, existing home sales growth. Now, is there a chance we can still get there even with these delays. We'll see just because the rate variables. But it was wonderful to see like everything you wanted. Inventory up, new listings data up, weekly pending sales up. The new listings data made me smile because we're over 80,000. We're not back to normal, but the fact that we're at the low end of normal range, maybe we get a little bit of growth during the seasonal peak. Beautiful. It was great. It just huge, huge smile on my face. Well, and I think that could be shocking when you think about like you're talking about all these other X factors. So to see that demand holding up and let's talk about new listings this year compared to last year, you know, big difference. For a while there, new listings data was negative year over year, which I did not want to see. But you know, some of that, maybe some people just didn't want to list during the war and not sure what was going to happen. But just the last two weeks, see, two weeks ago, it was the, you know, Easter rebound. We put that data with a grain of salt, but not this week. So it was good. You just, you need duration, right? Everything in housing needs duration because it doesn't have the velocity like stock or anything like that. It is positive to see that we had multiple things that could have hurt the housing market. We weathered that store. Rates are still close enough to 6%, not under 6.25% like it was before the war. And it just pick up a little bit demand. You'd like to see that kind of confidence in an area or in a timeframe where it's like, oh, nobody wants to put their house on the market. The war, all this stuff is happening. Purchase application data, which looks out 30 to 90 days, double-digit week-to-week growth, double-digit year-over-year growth. So positive, positive, positive. One of the best reports we had since the tracker was created in late 2022 I love that Okay we are at the end of April So timing when you look at what this tracker showed does this seem about right for a spring, for a more normal spring? Not a normal spring, but a better spring. New listings data, to me, it's like, you know, we haven't had a normal year. It didn't matter if mortgage rates were at 3% in 2021 or heading up to the 8%. The fact that we could maybe have a couple of weeks where new listings data is above 80,000 during the seasonal peak, because we're in a seasonal peak now for weekly pending sales, new listings data for our data lines. So it's just encouraging to see that even with all the noise, life finds a way. People don't stop, you know, living their lives because of what people might perceive on the internet. But the fact that we had double-digit purchase application, did weekly pending sales, new listings, and active inventory all together, that's what a spring should look like. And even though the growth rate of inventory has slowed a lot since mid-June of 2020, it's healthy enough to keep kind of prices in check. That's another positive. Every year that goes by where wages are outstripping or outgrowing home price growth is a positive to get affordability a little bit better over time, right? There's no quick fix to this, but time can make it better. Amazing. I'm all for positive demand data. It was so fun to see the tracker. As you said, one of the best ones you've done since you were like in 2022, we're doing this, even though I was like, no, no, no, we're not ready yet. And you're like, I wrote it. Here you go. See, late 2022, the reason I wanted to get it out is that the housing market was shifting. When was that? What date was that? November 9th. November 9th. And we're like, people are going to be like six to nine months behind the curve on this like they are here. And there's no way for us to show people unless we get the tracker out. So it took about 12 positive forward-looking weeks. And then all of a sudden, we had one of the biggest month-to-month existing home sales in history back then. And then rates, of course, shot up above 7% right after that. But there's a way to track this. There's a way to see this. There's a way to look out, right? And that's what the tracker was created. Look out, not current, not past. And the late 2022, mid-2024, mid-2025. There's a pattern here. There's a pattern here. And we say it takes six to nine months for everyone else to kind of figure it out if you're working with old stale data. But, oh, it's pretty. It was pretty to see because the war shot rates up higher. We're all accustomed to rates going to back up with above 7% and demand slows down. And then kind of the year is lost. But maybe we could still get growth here. You know, rates never got above 6.64. And it's just good to see. Housing Wire subscribers have an advantage. You're not just getting the latest news. what's happening in Washington, mortgage rates and housing data, you're getting the context to operate and win. Subscribers join an elite network of top operators, early access to HousingWire events in a community focused on building a stronger, more profitable housing market. And right now, subscribers get full access to HousingWire intelligence, which is still in beta. So go to housingwire.com forward slash subscribe forward slash podcast for a discounted subscription trial just for podcast listeners. Again, housingwire.com forward slash subscribe forward slash podcast. Okay. Our next topic is the Fed. So I was out last week. We had a variety of hosts. You were the host and the guest. You did a solo podcast. And I didn't do wrong. You did great. I did fine. Rebecca, our superstar podcast creator said, you were actually really good. You behaved yourself. That's high praise from Rebecca. And yeah, I know I thought it was a great episode. But while I was out, my gosh, so much happened with the Fed. So this is Fed week, amazingly. And we had a lot of things happen. Give me a preview of what you think happens with the Fed this week. Well, it's Powell's last Fed meeting. It's his last Fed presser. Whether he stays or not as a governor, that's still in question. But for now, this is it. This is goodbye to him. It's going to be Kevin Warsh's show. I'm more curious, not for what he's going to say, because whatever he says doesn't have the value anymore, but what Fed governors say. It going to be Kevin Warsh and the crew he has versus kind of the hawkish Fed governor So I really really want to get a perspective of how they voting or looking out because the growth rate of inflation is above target, because the war is still going on. And as we talk right now, Brent crude is $108, WTI oil is $96. You're starting to see the food inflation start to pick up. So I'm curious because it's over. Powell's kind of reign is over And we'll have to discuss the Fed in a different way where Kevin Warsh has a much different view than Jerome Powell does. Okay. Is it still going to be labor over inflation? It's actually going to be even more labor over inflation. Yeah. Powell had to kick in teeth and whatever, get him onto the labor inflation side. You know, the market forced him to take that stance. It wasn't like he was getting ahead of it. They really dismissed a lot of the slow growth in jobs until they couldn't do it anymore. They just publicly can't come on and say the labor market is solid. I mean, look, Beth Hammock was like saying the labor market is solid. And we like had five straight months of missed jobs, of course. But in any case, Kevin Walsh, and again, I'm hashtag anybody but Walsh. But what Kevin's going to do, if there is even more labor weakness, unlike Powell, he is going to be adamant about getting more rate cuts in, where Powell was kind of like haphazardly having to take the slow way to neutral. And neutral policy, two to three rate cuts left in this cycle. But Kevin Walsh is going to have a much different view. And it's his job to try to convince the Lori Logans, the Beth Hammocks, the Austin Goolsbys of the world that the next stage should be a little bit more dovish tone after this. But again, the market dictates that. The 10-year yield got ahead of the Fed last year. But right now, because oddly enough, jobs data is beating. As crazy as we think this, the job growth, about 60,000 on average, is good enough for the Fed to keep things at pat. And I'm very curious to see how Kevin Warsh talks about it now. Because Powell's like, okay, you know, they did one more extra rate cut than they wanted to last year. Now it's like, we're going to hold, we're going to hold, we're going to hold. So it's going to be a whole new regime. And there's going to be a lot of conflict. But this Fed meeting, of course, nothing's going to happen. But it's really I want to get a sense of how the committee is voting because it's pretty clear now this is Powell's last last hurrah, last Fed presser, last Fed Q&A as well. So Kevin Warsh's Q&A's are going to be, oh, Lord, we think of Powell's Q&A's were nutty. Boy, Kevin's going to have a that's going to be a riot. But we'll see. We'll see how that is. But, you know, the Fed preview, the 10 year yield today is 4.33 percent, 4.32. oil prices are still elevated and uh we'll we'll kind of take it from there because and always remember guys 65 to 75 percent of where the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate to go is fed policy and you revolve around the economic data nominal growth wage growth inflation expect all these things within a cycle uh and so if some people are why why is it rates higher or the 10-year yield we have a lot of rate cuts in the system and oh boy who's the unsung hero again of 2026 that was the hero last year, mortgage spreads. Spreads got as high as 211. You know, how we count spreads is a little bit different than other people. And then it just kind of fell right back down to 193. And that's keeping mortgage rates volatility compressed. It is beautiful to watch because, you know, any other 2023, 2024 where rates are already above 7% and 2025, the worst levels of the spreads were already near 7%. So hug a mortgage spreads, take a selfie with it, get it a door dash dinner, whatever y'all want to do, treat it with respect. Yeah, we're in a much better place than we would have been. Every weekend on the tracker now, you say, okay, here's what it is, but here's what the mortgage rate is, but here's what the mortgage rate would be given this 10-year yield and spreads from the last three years. I think it was three years ago, I was at a mortgage event and there's like 500 people. I said, does anybody know a mortgage spread? It's like three people raised their hand. I was like, I did a very terrible job in the last decade talking about this, and I clearly need to get people versed. The issue with the mortgage spread is a lot of people were told that mortgage spreads can never get better unless the Fed is buying mortgage securities That has never been the case for decades and decades Why Because I read books I don burn them Okay So we show these charts of these long duration spreads within cycles. And I was telling people, what was the best level of mortgage spreads ever in history that we have data on? February of 1980, negative 24 basis points. spreads can get very wild within a cycle. But historically speaking, when the Fed has started cutting rates and volatility compresses and convexity and all that stuff, spreads tend to improve. Visually showing people why it's so important, especially for someone like me that says it's really hard to get mortgage rates under 5.75%. People get a good idea. And that's why that chart was created that way, but also that data to give perspective. Hey, this is 2023. We're here. 2024, we're here. 2025, we're here. There's not that much more downside left in the spreads, but it did its job like it always does. It's a positive for everyone. So we know this is going to be a really different press event because it is his last. What could be the Debbie Downer? What do you think Powell's going to do as his parting gift? Well, I mean, what could happen is that you get a very, very, very, very hawkish statement And you get like all the Fed governors that don't like Kevin Warsh who want, you know, not to cut rates unilaterally kind of express that the next move will be a hike. Now they haven't done this. I kind of tell people the Fed is like kept it pretty cool about not talking about hiking rates. So no forward guidance on 10 year yield going up higher. But in this context, you know, that would be the wild card where it's such a hawkish stance and there's no closure to the war. and that embedded inflation, another supply shock, here we go. So you could see volatility if something like that happened, or the Fed just basically says, we're going to wait, right? The tariff inflation is a one price off, that'll roll itself out. The war eventually end, we'll go back to normal. That would be the conventional, you know, kind of middle way of talking about it. In aggressive ways, someone could say that, you know, the Fed is going to be very mindful of the labor market getting hit with oil prices coming up. That would be a dovish take. But to your point, a very, very hawkish Fed, you know, kind of just like looking at Trump and going, you this was homie, this was you, man, you want lower rates, you're the one who did tariffs, and you did the war. And here we are, we're dealing with both these things. You know, if they did something like that, maybe the 10 year yield could act up. But man, it's they've been kind of low key on this few hawks get a little bit lippy. But considering everything that's happen. They've been kind of mild in some of their language this year. It is going to be fascinating. And you and I are going to do a podcast after that press conference, after the meeting, and then his presser and the Q&A. So we will figure out what happens. But Logan, thank you so much for being here. Great timing for all of everything happening. And here we are. You're going to be doing a headline economic talk at the gathering. Could not be better timing. Yeah, I did not. This whole presentation is different because we're war, oil, AI, everything. All these things that are happening this year, we're just going to update everyone and give people perspective, right? Be the detective, not the troll. Oh, I haven't heard that one for a while. Okay, you guys, if you've listened to us for a long time, you're like, hey, pull that one out. All right, Logan, thank you so much. And we'll talk again soon. Yes. And thank you. And for my lovely fan who created a bubble doll of me, Shark Daddy. That's the best one yet. That is pretty great. So we get shirts and hats and everything, but now we've got a bubble doll added onto the collection. Thanks for listening to Housing Wire Daily. If you haven't already, we'd love for you to take a minute to rate the show and leave a comment. And make sure to tune in tomorrow for more news and insight. housingwire.com to see the full picture.
