It's the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hi friend, it's your inner child calling. And they want churros. A new toy. And a new adventure. Or maybe five. With the bestest besties on earth. Find your moment at Walt Disney World Resort. Liberty Mutual customizes your car and home insurance to save you money. That's it, that's the ad. No bells and whistles. No guys, I said no bells and whistles. No. Trombones are fun. Visit libertymutual.com and make the switch today. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. The Packers need a cornerback, but history tells us that might be the worst position to draft for them at 52. You are locked on Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. The number one sports podcast network. We're going to talk about the kinds of defensive tackles I think fit and don't fit what Jonathan Gannon wants from this defense. Why I think it is a mistake to target offensive linemen in the top 100 unless you're just blown away by someone. But let's start with this question of corner in particular. Because I am, as you may know, obsessed with the idea of historical hit rates. And I believe that teams struggle, teams make mistakes when they are overconfident in their ability to evaluate players to discern the difference between cornerback four and cornerback six, wide receiver two and wide receiver five. Historically teams are not great at parsing these things. Otherwise, all the best players would go in the first round. All the next best players would go in the second and third and so on. And that is not the case. But there are clear patterns about where teams and this is league wide trends that they would be short, small sample theater to just isolate the Packers. But the league wide trends say you can actually be more confident in your evaluations at certain positions. Teams tend to be better at certain positions. Unfortunately for the Packers, corner is not one of them. Corner is in fact not the league, ironically, is very good at ordering corners. First round corners hit at among the highest rates of any position. Your chance of getting a corner in the first round is over 50%. What happens though, unfortunately, is that falls off a cliff. In fact, it's well over that in the top 10. You've got something like a 70% chance of getting a quality starter according to pro football focus historical data. So 65th percentile starter according to their grades. But in the second round, it's 40%. In the third round, it's 27% and in the fourth round, it's 22%. If you don't get your corner early, the chances of you getting a quality player are low. And they are materially higher at basically every other position that the Packers might consider in that spot. Let's look at some of their other needs. If they want an interior pass rusher and we'll get into the pass rusher of it all. You are in the second round, you've got an above 50% chance of finding a quality starter in terms of their pass rush ability along the interior in the second round. You have an above 50% chance of getting a quality starter at receiver in the second round. And by the way, the Packers averages are pulling up the league averages because the Packers hit at like an 80% clip in the second round. If they draft a receiver in the second round, they will be a good player. This has been true essentially as long as some of you have been alive. And offensive tackle is down there with corner. Offensive tackle and corner are two positions where if you don't get them in the first round, your chances of getting one ever are pretty small. And then there are other positions and we'll talk about the offensive lineman bit of this, but there are other positions where interior offensive lineman, the league is really bad at evaluating them. Like, like bad at it. Like the difference between a first round player and a third round player is pretty small in terms of historical hit rates. The difference between a second round player and a fourth round player pretty small in terms of historical hit rates. So don't be particularly confident in your value in your ability to evaluate those positions. That's just the smart way to handle this. And I know some teams care more about this stuff than others. I don't think the Packers care about this stuff as much as some other teams do. But what I am here advocating is that it would be the smart thing to do. Now, the practical side of this is you spend months evaluating these players and you order them on your board. And so it's not that I don't think you should take a corner in the second round, but I think you should go into it clear-eyed about your ability to evaluate and find quality players at that spot. And the paradox of this, of course, is if you don't find that corner, you are unlikely to find that corner any other spot. And even if you find a good player at corner, because coverage is a weakling system, they are unlikely to have as much of an impact as an equally good player at a different premium position, especially quarterback, receiver, pass rusher. You are just more likely to get more bang for your individual buck with those positions. And this is why I have been screaming that you need to get a pass rusher if you're going to take a defensive tackle at 52. Because if you want a league average or a starter level run defender in the second round, your chances of getting that player are down there with corners. You're lower than 50%, 43.5% according to this pro football focus study. So run defense is something that is pretty flat. You can find run defenders later. This is why I continually advocate for the Packers. If what they want is a run defender, it's okay for them to wait. You have to have to have to get pass rush value or think you're getting pass rush value from that player, because history tells us you are more likely to be right about that evaluation. I often compare, and I'm not the only person to make this comparison, but I often compare general managers to baseball hitters. The difference between a 330 hitter and a 275 hitter seems huge in baseball terms. But over the course of the season, we're not talking about that many hits different, right? The difference in going two for four and one for four is huge, but it's one hit. It's one hit, but your success rate doubles. So we have to just remember that what you're looking for are those little advantages. It's why, okay, teams are trying to hit for power more. Because the difference in one hit that isn't a home run, that isn't an extra base hit. When you're talking about these little numbers, when you're talking about 15, 20, 25 hits difference over the course of a season, you'd rather take a 240 hitter that hits 40 home runs than a 280 hitter that hits 15 home runs, or a 300 hitter that hits 18 home runs. Now, there's a point at which that, I don't know, have those numbers exactly right, but directionally, that's what we're talking about. It's why teams are caring more about that stuff. Because they've realized if you play the odds, you're just much more likely to score on a home run 100% chance than on a single. Because then someone else has to drive you in. So not only do you have to get a hit, which you're, even if you're a solid hitter, you only have about a 25, 28% chance of doing, right? But then, at least one other guy has to do that too. And so now your chances of scoring are even lower. So this is the reason I think this stuff is important. Now, whether or not the Packers adhere to this, I guess we'll see. But this brings me to my final point on this. If they think a corner with a first round grade, and it's looking more and more like Chris Johnson is going to be that corner. So it's Mansour DeLane, it's Jermah McCoy, it's Chris Johnson probably, and Colton Hood, those are really your top four corners. Avion Terell is in there too. Packers, I don't think we're ever going to draft Avion Terell, DeAngelo Pons in there maybe right after. Packers are never going to draft that guy. But let's say Colton Hood falls, let's say Chris Johnson falls into the 30s. And you have a first round grade on that guy. That's when I think you start to bridge this gap and you go, okay, well, if we have the pick at 20, we would have taken that guy and we would have fallen into the historical bucket where it's like, oh, look, we have a 65% chance of being right about this guy. Well, if you have a first round grade on a guy, that's when it starts to make sense to move up because then a first round grade on a corner is about a sure thing as you can have in the draft. 65, 70% chance of being right about that. That's pretty awesome. The next round, it drops precipitously. So that would be why, okay, if you have to trade up into the 40s, if you have to give up, I mean, if you have to give up that third round pick to move up, is that worth it? It might be, but only if you think a receiver that you love is not going to be there and a defensive tackle, pass rusher type that you love is not going to be there. Let's talk more about that defensive tackle piece because I think it's a more narrow field than we realize with this defensive tackle class. Let's talk about it next. The NHL Play Officer here where every shift matters, every moment is intense and the pressure is at its highest. And just like performance matters on the ice, it matters off the ice too. 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Forgot the forgot the link there for a second, even though I've said it 600 times in the last two months. So it's not just that I think history tells us. I don't think history does tell us that pass rushers. You're more likely to be right about a pass rusher at 52. And you're less likely to be right about a run defender. So if what you want is a run defender, you can wait. It's that when you look at the way Jonathan Gannon has built his teams. He has not cared as much about run defense. Milton Williams. I understand he was a day three pick. He is an aggressive up the field freak outlier athlete. Disruptive explosive. He was not drafted to stop the run as a I'm going to eat up two blocks and hold my gap. And here we go and let the linebackers fill in behind. It's not what he does. Even Jordan Davis, who the Eagles moved up to draft. Was not selected because he was an elite run defender. He was selected because he is the most athletic nose tackle to enter the draft ever. And the idea was you bring that guy in and you get the run defense. But what he also offers you is that rare Dexter Lawrence level, Justin Madabike level, Halody not a level Vita Vaya in his prime level of disruption, pushing the pocket, creating pressures, creating negative plays beyond just being a Gilbert Brown plugger, for example. In Arizona. They did things like sign gears, Tonga and sign an aging well past his prime, Dalvin Tomlinson and in Philadelphia, they signed Linval Joseph. That was the extent that was the degree to which they were willing to attack that position. But who did Arizona just use a first round pick on Walter Nolan, who is a penetrating, disruptive, explosive player. And who did the Eagles draft right after Jonathan Gannon left Jalen Carter? Yes, Jalen Carter can and is a good run defender. One of the reasons he's such a good run defender is he is a bully at the point of attack. He will work guys, disrupt, dislodge, dislocate and find the football push blockers into the backfield. That's what he can do. And so I look at someone like Dominique Orange and and remember I have said while I don't love Dominique Orange at 52, I don't even like Dominique Orange at 52. I see more pass rush upside than most other people, the Packers. It this fits right this fits with the way that the Packers see all positions, frankly, but especially top 100 picks. They want you to be excellent athletically. Devante Wyatt, explosive, penetrating, disruptive pass rusher along the interior. Kenny Clark, not that that elite elite athlete, but when you adjust for density, what you have to do. He is an elite nose tackle type athlete. Dominique Orange is plenty athletic for the Packers. I don't know that he's the ideal fit for Jonathan Gannon. They need a big boy, right? We talked about this yesterday. Why I think they need to sign a veteran. I don't think Jonathan Gannon is going to require that they sign some special nose tackle type player or go trade for Dexter Lawrence. I don't think that's a prerequisite for success with this defense. It's why I think someone like Caleb Proctor. It's why I thought someone like Grayson Halton before he had that really bad three cone time. Was a fit for Green Bay. Now he's still very explosive linearly. He's a very explosive straight line athlete. And I would still like Grayson Halton on day two. That would be fine with me, but I think, I think Caleb Proctor, the more that I look at it, the more that I think about it, he is the single most obvious fit at tackle for the Packers in this draft. And that includes Kristen Miller, who is not a special athlete. He didn't test, but I think even had he tested, he would not have tested that. He would not have tested like a truly special athlete. He's not that sort of disruptor. He is a blockshedder. There are times when you see him against Alabama, for example, that he does move people out of the way and can be a disruptive interior defender. But his run defense is really what his calling card is. I think he has got more upside as a pass rusher than maybe he's been given credit for as well. I just don't see him being the kind of player that has had success in a defense like this coupled with the Packers history. I think Caleb Proctor is. And I think there are a couple guys on day three who are. And that's why the more I look at this and you may not like this, the more I think the pick at 52. And maybe it's a trade back. Maybe it's a trade up. I still think trading up for a corner is not out of the question, especially if they only need to like they need to go to from 52 to 45, let's say, and they can give up a fourth round pick to do it. I'm kind of coming around on the idea that they would take a receiver at 52. And then just let the let the chips fall where they may because it's it's not like offensive line where you've got five guys. And that seems like a lot. But you've got two tackles, two guards and a center. A center is a very particular type. A guard is not a tackle. Importantly, and a tackle is not a guard. And ideally, you're just going to play the two. At receiver, Matt LaFleur wants to play like 10 receivers. He wants to rotate them. You can have a season where in a in an ideal scenario for the Packers, your third, your fourth receivers play maybe not your third receiver, but your fourth receiver might play 35, 40 percent of snaps in a perfect world. So you bring that guy in and now you can figure out, OK, what is the future of this receiver room? Well, if it's Christian Watson and Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, you probably need one more guy. Especially because Savion Williams, third round pick, that was that was a gadget, a gadget play, an upside play, size, speed, all that good stuff. But he's he's I don't know that he'll ever be a refined receiver. I think more likely he becomes, you know, a turbo, quarter roll Patterson for you. You give him some running back reps, you give him some jet sweeps, you let him do some interesting stuff. You get him some design touches, some scheme touches. I'd frankly like to see him get some more scheme touches. But you you probably need another real receiver because there's no one on this roster. I think I think Matthew Golden can do a lot of the stuff Romeo Dom's was asked to do. They don't have someone that can do the things that Don Tavion Wicks could do. And even though someone like Ted Hearst, I keep coming back to Ted Hearst, not just because I love him. Bruce Feldman said on the athletic podcast the other day, the athletic football show that he thinks as I do and he has heard from people who believe as I do that had he played at a major conference school, not even, you know, like not even Alabama or Georgia. But like if he goes to Louisville or North Carolina or I'm trying to be respectful of everyone, UCLA. That that he's a first round pick with similar production. I think that's right. And someone like that could come in and and give you real receiver reps impact your team in a positive way. And again, I go back to what I what I led with in the open a corner because of the way coverage works. If there are, let's call it a 75 on Madden, just because that's a concept everyone understands. That's just not as impactful as a receiver who's a 75 on Matt and that's just always going to be true. So if you can't find that guy and you can't find that pass rusher, I'm looking at receiver at 52 going that that makes the most sense to me. And then maybe in the third round, that's where Caleb Proctor sneaks into the top 100 where he's not being projected to go there right now. But just because he's such and by the way, I think he's a top 50 player in this draft. So yes, I'm going with some of my pet cats here. But if the top of this draft was Ted Hurst, Caleb Proctor, and then in the fourth round, you got a willy who by the way just had a visit with the Packers, a Malik Muhammad, a Julian Neil, which seems to be where he's going to come off the board. That's a great draft to me. It fits with everything you look at. Historically, it fits with the Packers needs. It fits with the Packers types and it fits with the kinds of players I think they're looking for. If you can't be disruptive and rush the passer, I don't think you can play defensive tackle for Jonathan Gannon or at least not be a preferred player for Jonathan Gannon. And I think at no tackle, they have been more than willing to say, we'll take whatever veteran cast offs we can bring in. I think they'll sign at least one, if not two, but between now and opening day. But what you want is that disruptor, because if you're going to rush for a lot on early downs, you've got to be able to get to the quarterback. All this play action, all the, all the stuff that teams do to manipulate defenses, you have to be able to rush the pastor on early downs to get to the privilege of rushing on third down, third and eight plus. You have to pick disruptive, past rushing, interior defensive tackles to make this defense work. And so if you don't have that guy at 52, you got to wait until you can find that guy and find that guy with the right value. Now this offensive line question is woven in here. And I want to get to that. We'll do that next. If you've ever opened your bank account and thought, where did all my money go? You're not alone. 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For whatever you love, Infinite Worlds awaited the most magical place on earth, Walt Disney World Resort. Alright. I was watching... Um... Well, I won't say I watched the whole thing. But I saw and I have seen these conversations around the Packers needs and offensive line. And the idea that they're going to go out and they're going to allocate major resources to the interior of this offensive line. And I understand having questions about the effectiveness of this interior offensive line in particular. Sean Ryan was not great at center last year. Anthony Belton was not great at right guard last year. Aaron Banks not great at left guard. And so saying, I think it's important for the Packers to bolster that spot or those spots is totally reasonable. But even understanding the sunk cost fallacy. I think we have to remember where the Packers are in all of this. So our perception of their needs and their internal view of their development have to be taken separately. Sean Ryan just got a three year legitimate starting center money contract. They can get out of it in a year, but you give that contract because you want him to feel like, hey, this is your job. Go take it. Does that stop you from drafting a center on day three? Absolutely not. But it doesn't make sense when you can only play one to use a top 100 pick on someone unless the value just gets out of control. Like, you know, I heard Dane Brugler say the other day that he thinks Chase Byzantist can go on the first round. Chase Byzantist is a no doubt Packers type player. If he's there at 52, maybe you just go, the value is too good. We had a first strong grade on this guy. Maybe he can play guard. Maybe he can play center. Do a lot of different stuff for us. Now the Packers don't take interior offensive lemon. They take tackles and they convert them inside. That's why someone like Brian Parker from Duke is the name that you'll hear constantly and have heard of. I'm sure a lot to this point. When you look at drafting interior offensive lemon again, the NFL not very good at it. And the Packers have been very good at taking guys third, fourth, fifth rounds that played tackle and converting them to guard. So why do they need to spend big time money doing that when they drafted Elton Jenkins? It was at a time when the future of Corey Linsley was up in the air and Lane Taylor was, I believe in the final year of his contract and not playing at a super high level. Well, let's just look at the Packers offensive line. They have a former first round pick at left tackle. They let Rashid Walker go for nothing. He signed for nothing in Carolina. They are telling us they have faith in Jordan Morgan. They already are telling us by the contract they gave Aaron Banks that he they have faith in him. They're telling us that they have some level of faith in Sean Ryan. They just use a year ago, a second round pick on Anthony Belton and Zach Thomas, one of the best right tackles in the league. Am I a little worried about him starting the season 100% sure I am, but you can't make top 100 picks on the premise of you got to have somebody for the first month of the season if Zach Tom's not 100% ready to go. That is preposterous. I am willing to hear the argument that those none of those three interior guys are solidified either as Jordan Morgan. They're a team that likes to take a tackle and convert them inside. Maybe you take a tackle and just see what happens. By the way, I would understand that and maybe even be on board with that. But the Packers have to want to do that. The problem the Packers face right now is not the starting five. There are extenuating circumstances. Anthony Belton was not cross-trained in training camp. They forced him to play guard and I don't, it's still totally inexplicable to me. Why they cross-train everybody and they didn't cross train Anthony Belton who, you know, Ross Uglum was on this show last year saying that's the kind of guy who's just a no doubt guard for the Packers before they even drafted him. The Packers are like, I don't know. It's why people are confused as to why Luke Butkus still has a job, frankly. And they waste it all the time with like, oh, Jordan Morgan is competing at left tackle. Well, then let him compete. Well, he's left tackle now. In a year, let's have a very different conversation. Let's see what Jordan Morgan looks like. Let's see what Anthony Belton looks like. Like at quarterback, you can keep taking these shots. You draft Aaron Rodgers and in a year you draft Brian Brom because you have no idea what Aaron Rodgers is. Like this idea that they knew right away what Rodgers was is laughable because you don't draft Brian Brom in the second round. If you if you are convinced right away that Rodgers is the guy, give me a break. The hagiography around the Roger stuff and the internal idea and the fact that all the beat writers. Oh, they knew. No, they didn't. Anyone who tells you that is lying or self-deluded. I think I think self-deluded is the only kind of deluded you can be. But they are they are deluding themselves. Okay. So in a year, we can have that conversation during Morgan will still be under contract on his rookie deal. Anthony Belton will still be under contract on his rookie deal and they could get out of the Sean Ryan contract if they wanted to in a year. And then you can make those decisions and they're going to have plenty of money to play with if they need to go sign somebody, go sign somebody. If they need to use premium draft capital on someone, do that. They don't need to do that now. Even if I agree, there are question marks. They have allocated resources and not really given themselves or those players an opportunity to prove one way or another what those guys are capable of. And I think it would be premature. And I think we are not engaging in the sunk cost fallacy by saying the Packers have belief in those guys and those guys have not been given a proper chance to show whether that belief is warranted or not. So I understand the idea Jordan Love last year when protected was the best quarterback in the NFL from a clean pocket and was significantly worse when pressured. So you you want that to be buttoned up. And the second half against the Bears is is proof positive of that notion. You can do that on day three. If what you want is some backup guards, some backup centers, some potential future starters there, round four, round five, round six, go freaking nuts. And then in a year we can revisit. Okay. All right, we're back tomorrow with much more here unlocked on Packers. Another day closer. In fact, tomorrow will be basically a week away from the NFL draft. So keep it locked here for all of that. Subscribe wherever you get podcasts. Subscribe on YouTube for the squad shows. I jumped on for about a half an hour on last night show that should be in your feed now. Subscribe to my socials wherever you are on socials. If you're listening at this point in the podcast, you're an everyday or let's let's keep it a buck. So locked on Packers dot Supercast dot com. Get ad free episodes of locked on Packers. Plus you get to be in the group chat with me and other locked on Packers listeners. We program our Sunday OT show, which will be early this week, by the way. Um, I believe we are going to run at 10 Lambo time. So a Friday morning Sunday OT. Um, and, uh, we're going to have a great time. I know we are. So send me your questions. If you're an everyday or in the everyday or club listening to this, if you're not in the everyday or club, go join it so you can stay locked on Packers. So, uh, we're going to run at 10 Lambo time. So, uh, we're going to run at 10 Lambo time. So, uh, we're going to run at 10 Lambo time. 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