The Hawks Have Reached Their Limit With Trae Young, and the End of the Warriors

Project Hail Mary is an extraordinary cinematic experience. You're a great scientist, Dr. Grace. The world is calmed down on you. Starting Ryan Gosling. So I met an alien. Two worlds. One impossible mission. We're going to save the stars. Project Hail Mary. Amazing, amazing, amazing. Seed 1st, March 14th and 15th, in cinemas everywhere March 19th. All right, coming up on this at-close show. We got Howard Beck. What up Beck? Coming on to talk about a bunch of stuff going on in the NBA. We left Christmas in the rearview. That was wild. It was followed by kind of a wild weekend in the NBA that we're going to recap. Look ahead to warriors. Existential crisis. Hawks. Oh God. The Hawks. We're retiring, Kaka forever for the foreseeable future. At least we're going to have a big long apology about the Hawks and what the hell they're supposed to do with Trayon. If anything, do they really want Anthony Davis? What's happening? Bottom of the standings got very interesting over the weekend. The jazz are hot. The nets are hot. The clippers co-op put up a double nickel. The best scoring game of his illustrious career. They're hot. What does this mean for the bottom of the standings? How are the Hawks supposed to value the Pelicans picked that they have? What should the jazz do? The juiciest dilemma in the entire league. The jazz. O'Clau Home of City. A top eight protected first-round pick. What are they supposed to do? They should they keep trying to win. Should they let it ride? Are they going to semi-soft tank again? What do the thunder think of all this? They're going to talk some warriors, some Celtics, some trade stuff, a loaded show coming up with the great Howard Beck. This episode of the Zack Lo Show is presented by Amazon Prime. The holidays are here and they move quick. Luckily, Prime's Fast Free Delivery is your miracle play, getting whatever you need. They're fast. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and it just can't wait. From stocking suffers to that perfect gift for the MVP in your life, it's on Prime. Head to amazon.com slash Prime to shop now. Welcome to the Zack Lo Show. Look who it is. What up, Beck? Howard Beck, how are you? Do I grade Zack? Happy holidays, how are you? I'm good. I'm coming live from the in-laws house in Toronto. You don't know what's going to happen. Like a child could walk in. My mother-in-law has some hot takes on the Raptors. She could pop in and start spitting some fire. I am fresh from Raptors Warriors last night. A disastrous overtime loss for the Warriors, where Scotty Barnes looked like Godzilla sets the franchise record for rebounds in a game just towering over the small, helpless turnover prone throwing the ball everywhere. Warriors who blew a seven point lead in the last 90 seconds of the game had a total collapse at the end of third quarter. We will talk about the Warriors, not even facing an existential crisis well into an existential crisis and what if anything they can do. But yeah, Toronto living up to the hype. It's cold, it's snowed, it's rained, it's freezing rain, it's miserable to be outside for more than five seconds. Welcome to Canada, baby. It's not much different in New York. So you're not missing anything. We got our first significant snow in years the other day. And now it's raining and washing all the slush away. Let me tell you, there's a big hill in Toronto. I have no idea where it is, but it's like the sledding hill because there's not a lot of hills in downtown Toronto or near downtown Toronto. And we went two days ago with the girls. We have two 10 year olds with us right now. I went on a couple, it's a steep hill. I went down a couple times myself. And CBC, I guess Canadian Broadcast Inc. Whoever it is, the big network. CBC was there doing a sort of like fun little feature on here. Look at all the kids sledding. And I gotta tell you Howard, I hammed it up. I went down the hill. I wiped out semi on purpose. I was so ready to do a man on the street interview. I wanted this to be my Clay Thompson talking about the capital thing on the street in New York City moment. And they just, no interest. CBC just left. I was, I was even going to drop an organization into my interview. Like I had planned, I was going to have a low Canadianism in my interview as terrible. But the sledding, I'm an elite sledder, really like sledding. All right, a lot's going on in the league. And since the wild Christmas games, which I've already talked about, the calves are back on CAHBSCOM 1. I've elevated them up to CAHBSCOM 1 after getting destroyed by the rockets who are just, oh my god, the ferocity of the Houston rockets. By the way, no shen-gu in that game. Warriors, I talked about bottom of the standings. Chaos clippers on fire. Kauai 55 Utah beats the spurs and the pistons and consecutive games. What the hell is going on? We're going to get to that. But I have to start Howard. This is a low moment for me. No pun intended. I think I owe the world, the world, like the world. World leaders, NATO, the United Nations, basketball fans everywhere, and apology about the Atlanta Hawks. I hyped up the Hawks. I got excited about the Hawks' off season moves. Despite knowing Christophe Swarzinga's walking question mark, I knew. I knew. I knew better. Despite falling for the Hawks every year, like clockwork. Oh my god, look at how this new group of long wing defenders, ball movers, codders. You throw in Treyong. He's starting to evolve a little bit. He set all these off-ball screens last year. He's never set before. Boy, if everything clicks right, the ceiling on this team is super high. Dyson Dangel's 9,000 steals the game. Risa Shea, he should get better. I love a Congo. He's my six-man of the year pick. Quinn Snyder and his glasses. Coach of the year. Sick. The Hawks stink. And I shouldn't know him better. I shouldn't know him better. They're 15 and 18. They're 10th in the East. They haven't won a game since Treyong came back. Their defense was already falling before Treyong came back. And very predictably has fallen down even further with Treyong back in the lineup. And I watched these games. They gave up 152 to the bulls. I mean, just fold it up. If you give up 150 points to the Chicago Bulls, just fold the whole thing up. Take a break. Forfeit your next couple of weeks worth of games and just revisit the season in a couple of weeks. They are allowing. Here's their numbers. With Treyong on the floor, 119 points scored for 100 possessions. 126 allowed. And they were better without Trey. I'm not saying they are definitively better without Trey, but they were. And I watched these games. I'm like, I wonder if all these other guys on the Hawks are like, man, I didn't miss this. I didn't miss this thing where Treyong gets switched on to a bigger wing. And we all have to tilt the entire defense over there. And I've got to guard like four people at once. Or they're hunting, trying every possession and he hedges and someone slips. And now we're in rotation. Like, I just had a lot more work now. And without Treyong, there are mediocrity. 113 points scored. 113 points allowed. There are mediocrity no matter what. And this is like five straight years of mediocrity for them. Since the 2021 run to the conference finals, which feels like 9,000 iterations of the team ago. And they tease you with good off season moves. And I think they had a great off season. Asinoules been solid for them. The trade with the Pelicans is a home run, regardless of how good their Queen has been. And he's been great. Porzingus fits. Just doesn't play. He fits when he plays. Jalen Johnson's made a huge leap. No brainer all stories in the all NBA discussion. And they tease you with these sort of like non consecutive leaps. Like this guy goes up. This guy goes down. Then that guy goes up. Then that guy goes down. And then for 10 games, it's like, oh, I can see the identity forming this way and that way. And if Treyong comes back and plugs into that identity, then all these things click right in this team. And then they sink back down for another 10 games of like, oh, Treyong's just standing around off the ball again. Too much old Treyong, not enough new Treyong. And then they'll tease you for 10 more games. And at the end of the day, Howard Beck, they're just a tease. And I'm sorry. I'm sorry I fell for it. Nikhil had said a walker. He's been great. Great off season acquisition. It doesn't matter. They're a mediocrity. They're 15 and 18. I'm sorry. I was wrong. If anyone bet the Hawks over because of me, I'm not reimbursing you. But I am sorry for your loss. I was so wrong about this team. And you can sit here and tell me all they need is time. They need time to figure out Treyong's fit with this new sort of style. They developed a cutting, passing handoff, random offense pace with Jalen Johnson and Daniels and Risa Shea. I'm sick of giving the Hawks time. The Hawks always need time. They always need time to figure this out and figure out how that fits with this and figure out all this guy. Got injured Jalen Johnson was injured a couple of the last couple years. He's battled injuries. We had this thing before he got hurt and then he got hurt. But we need the always need time. I'm sick of giving you time. Your time's up. You're a mediocrity. And the only thing left to do is accept that you're a mediocrity. I am accepting blame and being totally wrong about you. And figuring out knowing that fact for 100% certainty. There is no upside. There's no like high playoff upside here. You're a mediocrity. What do you do going forward with Treyong with Janice Treyong with Anthony Davis Treyong that Chris Haines talked about over the weekend with the Pelicans pick whose value is kind of mysterious to pin down because of all the volatility at the bottom of the standings. Howard, I think I do I who you in apology. You mean no apologies. I'm actually just wondering where Hawks' mediocrity fits within the Zacklow insights into mediocrity. Maybe they took your advice and guidance on mediocrity too literally. And this is where they've ended up. But they're fitting within that new paradigm very well. Treyong is in year eight. He's not growing. I don't mean that like figuratively. I mean like literally he's not going to get any taller. So the size issue. If they could do that. If they could find a way to have a sixteenth grosspert in his late twenties and early days like, yes, sign me up. Like if you can hack that, everything's done. I'll give you some time. So not getting taller or bigger. That part of it is just fixed. But could you know, I think the question was always, was he going to grow the other way? Was he going to evolve as a teammate, as a ball mover, as a nonball stopper, and just as a willing defender, right? Like there are guys who just based on build and athleticism sometimes. There are guys who just are never going to be great defenders, right? But yeah, but everybody can get better if you're committed to it, right? That's the premise we like to believe in anyway. That's certainly what coaches like to believe. That anybody, if we could just get them to try, commit, be consistent, have the effort, work with their teammates. It's team defense is more important than individual defense in this league anyway. But some guys just max out and when you're in your eight, as trea young is, and to your point, and you weren't the only one who was really high on them after a great summer. Don't exonerate me. Don't exonerate me. I don't want to. I'm just, I stink. I stink. I'm the worst. I get it. But I think there was a reasonable belief in after getting poor Zingas and look, he's been out a lot. Getting a kill Alexander Walker, great acquisition. Another year of Dyson Daniels, like defensively that they could be really good. And that maybe with all of that framework around trea young, that makes up for whatever you are, the deficit that you will come in with when he is always on the floor, right? It's a nice concept. Sounded good. Some believed it more than others, but I think we all believe the hawks were ready to make a real move this season in the standings. You know, your your results on on how high vary, but I think everybody thought they were going to be pretty good. Maybe at this point, more than maybe, it's just time for everybody to conclude, including the hawks themselves that there isn't a higher ceiling with trea young as a key piece of this. And there's a free agency decision coming up. There's an extension that was not offered prior this past summer. I mean, the the writing has been on the wall for a while. There are murmurings. I think Tim McMahon had something today. Jake Fisher had something a couple of days ago. Like it does feel like we are moving toward a inevitable divorce between the hawks and trea young whether that's by the trade deadline or not as always the tricky part, right? Look, I've said five times in the last 18 months, if there was a killer trea young hawk straight or even like a B trea young hawk straight, I think he would have been traded already. And I just don't know. And that's not to say that they don't have the same hopes that I had about integrating a fairly rare offensive force into the rest of this ecosystem. It just it just hasn't worked. In part because he hasn't been that grave and offensive force. He's not hitting threes. And he's been like a if you look, I looked at his numbers for his career. He's been like a mediocre two point shooter and very bad rim finisher. For almost his entire career. And when he's just not hitting enough threes, the passing is a leap unquestion. But when the shot making when the passing is the only thing that's really clicking. And yeah, I understand his gravity has value. And when he stands at half court doing nothing and takes a defender with him that has some value, I get all that. But when the passing is the only thing that's really clicking, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze. I just look around the league. And I'm like, I don't even know what like I don't know what the trade is. I don't know because he's got this $49 million dollar player option for next year. If I'm him right now, my plan is opt in. Like the hawks are not going to give me an extension. I don't think I don't think that's worth my while. I don't know why they would at this point if they haven't already. I don't know what unrestricted free agency is going to be like for me this coming summer. Like I'm probably opting into that. Like the kings, sure, they're you could easily construct any number of crazy kings trades and never underestimate the kings. You know, Bill proposed this harden for Trayong swap that I sort of poo poo it is like I don't really get what the point of that is for either team. And now that the clippers are starting maybe to at least salvage their season. And hardens been pretty durable and productive for them. I don't really see what that does for them. The pelicans would make sense except if I'm the hawks, one of the last things I want to do is theoretically help the pelicans win more games this year since I'm in control of their pick. So I just don't know what the trade is. I saw Chris Haynes over the weekend talked about how Atlanta is looking at Anthony Davis interested in Anthony Davis. And would not include Trayong in such a trade which means Porzingus plus salary would be the trade and the salary maybe would have to be resusher. We'll talk about him in a second. And I get to Anthony Davis saying like they their defences a train wreck. He plugs when he plays again. He plugs some holes on that end. Lots of holes on that end. He can fit with the Kongwook as the Kongwook becomes such a versatile big man shoots three's pretty well slumping lately. Got out of his slump the other day. But like I get it. That just feels like a sort of last gasp it at Tray plus jail in Johnson plus Anthony Davis with Anthony Davis making 50 something million next year. It feels like a last gasp it. What exactly I don't know. And even though Risa Shea has been a disappointment and he's only 20 years old I think. So I think he's going to be he is a decent rotation player. I think he'll be a good starting level player. If you look at Alex Sarr read Shepherd and Stefan Castle the next three picks. I don't think it's too early to say that the Hawks made the wrong decision on that pick. And even saying that. I don't know that I'm ready to give up on him just to get Anthony Davis at $110 million for the next two seasons with an extension looming that I want zero part of. And by the way any team sniffing around Anthony Davis whether it's the warriors who reportedly have interest. I have no idea how that works. Whether it's the raptors who have this huge hole at center with the acroperitals back injuries never going anywhere apparently. Like I'm like I'm talking to Rich Paul ringer the ringer is Rich Paul and being like you're not getting an extension. We're just like not even discussing it. It's way too much money if you're willing to take a super discount. Sure. But like this idea that we're giving you this crazy max extension is off the table before we even talk about trading for you. I just don't know really what the point is and you said pretty good about the Hawks and I do think their ceiling is pretty good. I think they're underperforming at 15 and 18. But I do think we now know this tops out at like everything clicks from now on this teams like a 46 win team. I like the idea that I had that they could be a 51 team with a high ceiling is over I think. And so I would just ask you like what do you think what what which path is most interesting to you here? You know what's interesting to me was the second I saw the Anthony Davis thing my first thought was why do that when you are on the fringes of the eventual Janus sweepstakes? Like if you whatever you're giving up for Anthony Davis both in terms of salary and assets and whether the reason she's in there obviously you're not putting the toggling bucks pelicans you know pick in there. But if you go for Anthony Davis are you taking yourself out of the potential Janus sweepstakes? And if you are if you believe there's a Janus trade to be had whether it's before the trade deadline unlikely or in the off season more likely I just don't think like where's what's the rush? What's the rush to go on on a constantly injured wanting a mass extension as you just alluded to Anthony Davis? I think I would rather just you keep my powder dry. How along with the team we've got see if there is more of an upside see if we can get to that 46 win range you just mentioned see if we can find a better see if we can get more out of the tray young lineups when he's in there but also explore other options for how to get something else out of tray young trade wise. I don't I think there have to be better ways to parlay whether it's tray, Reese's Shay, the bucks slash pelicans pick all that there's got to be a better deal and that's not a criticism of Anthony Davis it's just there's just too much risk there and this is a hawks team that yes they are desperate for a breakthrough and to to recapture what they thought they had a few years back when they made that conference finals run. But this is a young team. What's where's the rush to plug in you know past 30 constantly injured Anthony Davis it doesn't feel like the right move at the right time for that team. It's my lead if you if you give me three paths and obviously there are more paths and every path has little sub paths streaming out of it. But if the three paths are like aggressively chase Yannis now do nothing and Anthony Davis Anthony Davis is my that's my third favorite of those of those paths. The honest one is is tempting because if the cost is tray plus Reese's Shay plus this pelicans pick which I don't I just don't think they can get it without that pick being it I know they want to keep the pick I understand why they want to keep the pick if that's the case then you're just not getting Yannis in season I don't think and that that's fine it's tempting to me because I don't really have an interesting roadmap right now to anything like super fun in the Eastern Conference super high level and Yannis at least presents me although there are spacing fit injury age concerns all that it at least makes me interesting and definitely nudges my ceiling toward like okay I want to see what this is and it's also he's only 31 and yes he's he's had these leg injuries often and he seems to come back super fast from them it like if you weigh the next three to four years doing nothing and keeping that pelicans pick what if that pick falls seventh and in the alternative is Yannis like my next three or four years is more fun with Yannis but I don't know if that pelicans pick it also fall first second or third you know it's something you could revisit after the lottery where you know where everything stands and I don't know what this front-off is wants to do I know the stand path path is would be interesting to me if I were on C Salah the GM there because I can stand pat and if we miss the playoffs and right now we're 10th in the East and the Bucks missed the playoffs and right now they're 9th in the East and if they trade Yannis somewhere else they're definitely going to miss the playoffs and even if they keep them like we'll see what happens we can have three bites at the lottery this season we can have three bites at a top five pick our pick the Bucks pick the pelicans pick we can just hold all those and take our shot and add up all those chances and then when Shreyaung comes off our books one way or another instead of flipping that into another $50 million salary just vaporize it and have all this salary flexibility young players that we draft young players that we have now and move on to the next era of Hawks basketball I think that's a perfectly reasonable path and about the like the Bucks continue to message like we're not trading on us we're buying actually we're want to buy players so if that path is off the table for the season I'm I just I'm cool just sniffing around the trade trade market if I find something that gives me salary relief and a token asset maybe I do it if not we have to revisit this in the offseason but I'm looking at that salary slot as free money going forward I think the wild card here Zach and I don't know what you know what the the stance is now but we have seen from that Hawks ownership group they're not the most patient in the world that's how we got here in the first place to a large degree right like multiple front office changes in the last five years or so from Travis Schling to Landry deals and the horrendous Dejante Murray trade that this front office was able to dig out or actually that deal pre Landry Fields was able to dig out yeah yeah I was said Landry I almost said Landry Shamit I was like if Landry Shamit was also I think it's the GM of the Hawks like Kudos to him but just a lot of kind of impulsive moves over the last few years trying again to recapture what they had with that conference finals run back in 2021 was it 2021 yeah Copa messed up our timetables and understanding of anything but yes yeah but it but that was one of those moments where it was is this real is this just this this one year aberration and is this going to send the wrong message to ownership and it did it made them think that they were further along than they actually were and they've been chasing that ever since and they've been really antsy and making front office changes and everything else so have they learned from all that does oncy and his staff now have a little bit more latitude to tell ownership listen we you know we're on a really great path here we've made some nice additions the last couple of years Jaylen Johnson's only getting better we're eventually going to move off tre young but let's wait for the right deal and yeah like I said I just all in for an Anthony Davis move at this stage of Anthony Davis's career does not feel like the smart move in today's NBA I think the hawks have time to do this in a more methodical way and I don't want to just completely punt on resuscitation for little to no reason like he's been disappointing three ball unreliable defensively okay I think he'll get better I think he's going to be a very a good 3nd kind of versatile defender player and even if that's quote all he is and Sar becomes an all star and Shepherd becomes an all star and Castle is definitely going to become an all star that's still a good player like it we made the wrong pick but it's still a good player on Janus what do you think of windmill gate against the blow of the day I'm really mixed on these things Zach going even all the way back to my youth when I actually cared about baseball for a while apologies I know your your met's fandom is reaching new heights every week or the the met or the most of the week the met met's corner we need a little cooling off period because the met sir I don't know if you saw this the met sir now embroiled in like a full on political like contra not a controversy might be too strong but there it's there's a lot going on on met's corner that we need to figure out how to address but baseball is the sport where they always had the unwritten rules right you know you can't style going around the bases after home run and all this stuff blah blah pictures going to throw at the next guy all this bullshit like baseball is stupid in the and earth all sometimes but the NBA like basketball doesn't have a lot of the unwritten rules but there are some and one of them is that whether you're on either end of the blowout memo to Derek queen as well on this you're supposed to just run the clock out and that's that so Derek queen violated this unwritten rule a few weeks back got a talking to Janus who's been in league for 13 years like Derek queen you're going to chalk it up to youth Janus has been in league as he noted in the post game I've been in this league for 13 years as if that had kind of entitled him to just like do whatever on the one hand intellectually I don't give a fuck frankly that they have that these unwritten rules exist I don't care about running up scores I don't care about people's feelings getting hurt I really don't on the other hand it is kind of the way that everybody understands this and it's kind of pointless so forget whether or not the unwritten rules are logical they're not it's all matchable shit what I took issue with to an extent took take issues even too strong of a term but what I kind of just like turn you know my my I turned something Janus explaining this as we're 13 and 18 where are we 12th in the east we're 11th in the east where are we yeah we're just a bad team we're just we're just trying to clock claw our way out of this thing and we're going to fight in this and that what the hell does a meaningless wind bill dunk in a game you're already winning by double digits and that the clock is just running out have to do with digging your way out of this like I get you're in a really frustrating position individually you've got this trade stuff hanging over he got pissy about a question about that in that post game as well you have created this you and your representation have created all of this so he's he's edgy about that he's edgy because he's just got back from a long injury absence again he's edgy about the fact that frankly this this roster is just not good enough which is why Janus trade speculation is in the air in the first place none of that is resolved by going and violating these stupid unwritten rules with a windmill dunk and getting voochall all pissed off and then vooch with with the fun little dig in his post game with our buddy Casey Johnson saying something about maybe Janus was upset that the bulls rebuffed reportedly rebuffed Janus's representation on a potential trade to Chicago something like that I don't know I it's silly I just think that Janus' explanation for why he did it rang hollow uh first of all of course the bulls are going to repuff these these this whole idea the bulls are exactly where they want to be 15 and 16 throw a parade baby ninth in the east like why would they shake anything up this is exactly where they're they always are exactly where they want to be why would you risk why would you risk breaking the 39 win barrier why would you risk that no you can't you can't fail and feel pain if you don't try so why try you could just be content with what you have and look like I I love the windmill dunk he dunked like 17 times during that game all he did was dunkle over the bulls why not punctuate it with another dunk I did not care and you I actually watched the bulls broadcast I watched that game after the fact so I wanted to hear with the bulls broadcast and sassy king said about it they were team Janus they were like you don't in real time right away sassy king was like hey if you don't want them to do that phallim you see him starting to rev up go tackle him phallim I don't care I didn't care either I enjoyed the voodish thing and about the bucks their roster isn't good enough we know their roster isn't good enough they know their roster isn't good enough that's why they're sniffing around these like you know we've talked about all the names that might make sense for them if I'm them I you I almost perversely get it because the Celtics are third in the east the raptors are fourth the magic are fifth the sixers are six they heat I've been slumping they've won two in a row but they were slumping before that the calves are on calves calm one as good as the nicks and the pistons are at the top I can see the bucks sort of talking themselves into I don't know why not like maybe we sneak in and can we get up to six we're only five games behind six can we get like are the sixers gonna pull away from us or the magic and the ink and a pull away for I kind of get it I love the windmill thing I have zero issue with the windmill thing period it's fine it's it's silly but it's fine um the other thing though when he was then asked about the contracts or he was asked about um do you see yourself staying or trying to win a championship with the bucks or whatever the question was and he gave the quote about I'm here I'm here I'm here don't ask me that question I'm here it's disrespectful towards me and my teammates like if you uh where the jersey every single day like if you want this to go away just say I am I'm going to finish my career with the bucks or I'm going to sign an extension with like he could make this go away anytime he wants to any hasn't so saying it's disrespectful or being upset that someone's asking about it like again you created the situation and I love yana's like he's awesome um and you look hi if he stayed with the bucks his entire career that's a great outcome too I think it's great for the NBA for small markets for stability there's all kinds of reasons but there's all kinds of reasons why it's reasonable for us to expect that he won't want to be there if they can't contend that the bucks now believe they can make another yet another patchwork type move and somehow salvage this thing and convince him to stay by the spring I listen I I admire the audacity of it and the self belief it's great I don't think it's realistic but I can't wait to see what they do between now the trade deadline to to prove that premise what what I like about yana's and what the win mill sort of emanates for me is I think he legitimately believes I'm the best player in the east it's not close right now and his I'm just saying his opinion like yes I'm so good I'm so good and I am such an irresistible force going to the basket nobody can stop me if these dudes around me could just make enough threes like I'm not afraid of anybody in these I really I legitimately think he believes I think he believes both that and I'd have a much better chance at winning a championship in like 17 other places right now I think he believes both those things might be guessed yeah at the same time um let's talk about I mentioned the pelicans pick that the hawks control and the difficulty in valuing that pick and it seems to change in value with every week of the season this has been a fascinating five days at the bottom of the standings in the NBA if you had to tear the lottery right now tear one best chance at a top three top four lottery seed washington indiana kings pelicans are kind of right now in a tier by themselves of those three teams I think washington indiana and sacrameno have no hope of exiting this tier and no real ambition to do so I think those are the safe bets to finish with the three worst records in the NBA and be very hard to quote catch for anybody currently above them in the standings the pelicans although they have lost three straight have been pretty frisky um the number is when they have their best players on the floor like herb jones plus tray murphy plus queen they actually have a positive scoring margin they're trying to win they're trying to stave off the embarrassment of potentially sending a super high pick somewhere else I can see them climbing into the next tier pretty easily if they continue to play with this effort level and stay healthy which brings me to the next tier of teams and this is a crowded tier right now so we had four already in that first year right next tier of teams charlatte love watching the hornets bill was right about charlatte when i when i pissed pissed him for having them super high in the league pass rankings he was right they're really fun especially now they're healthy fun charlatte step for you plus thirty two in a hundred and sixty four minutes with lamello still not given up Brandon Miller and con caniple all on the floor now caniple had an nasty ankle injury their last game we'll see but that's like i like watching those three play together figure out their chemistry figure out how to play off of each other like all that okay it's continuing to your two charlatte is currently let me bring up the standings 11 and 20 brooklyn 10 and 19 number one defense in the NBA over the last month how are they doing it allowing the fewest threes in the league and allowing also the most shots at the rim but defending the rim pretty well they're switchable they're interesting brooklyn 10 and 19 dallas 12 and 21 A.D. is heard again clippers 10 and 21 have one four straight kawaii looks like he found the fountain of youth the level of zip and hops he's playing with is crazy we'll talk a little bit about the clippers who beat the pistons last night rather handily at beat the rockets rather handily had a nice win over the lakers and app portland like those are four quality wins um dallas i mentioned 12 and 21 clippers 10 and 21 Utah 12 and 19 that's nine teams a tier above them in sort of like who the hell knows what's going to happen with these teams portland 13 and 19 trying to win don't have any guards point guards that seems to be a problem bucks 13 and 19 clearly trying to win grizzlies 15 and 17 kind of stabilizing over the last couple of weeks despite some endless health issues hawks 15 and 18 um just tons of volatility all over the standings and to me the most interesting brewing story in the NBA is we talk about why some of these teams are starting to win and how interesting they live is Utah who was a top eight protected pick but it's top eight protected to the Oklahoma City Thunder i.e. the jazz keep it if it's in the top eight uh let me just bring it up so I have right now they'd be nine and then if they if if they do yes if they do keep that pick their obligation to Oklahoma City is gone so this is like a black and white situation for them they are currently have the ninth worst winning percentage in the league here is how stark the odds are for them if they finish with the seventh worst record in the league if they enter the lottery with the seventh seed so to speak they have an 87% chance of keeping their pick if they enter the lottery with the eighth seed so right at the break even point where they owe that pick they have a 60% chance of keeping the pick 61 technically if they if they are one spot above that ninth where they are right now they go from 60% chance to keep the pick to 80% chance they lose the pick that's how stark this is and the reason this is such an interesting dilemma to me is the jazz are actually pretty good and pretty fun to watch they're sniffing a top 10 offense in the NBA right now when they have George who's made a huge leap and I've talked a lot about him before he's a real guy it's a real good and marketing they're a competent offensive team and I don't really see that changing if both of those guys play the entire rest of the season they just beat the spurs and the pistons consecutive support in a million points when at when be hard down the stretch of that game against San Antonio um so but they also have this like it's a very stark cliff between seventh or eighth in the lottery ninth in the lottery but they also have to look at themselves in the mirror and say hey we tanked so blatantly last year the league find us in our gm austin agent to come out and say we're not going to do that again be no matter what we do we can't catch the wizards the Pacers the Kings and maybe the Pelicans so is our absolute lottery ceiling the fifth spot well what if Dallas goes in the tank and Portland goes in the tank or the Clippers Kauai gets injured and they go back in the tank like Utah's future is very blurry and they could very well be choosing between like um going into the lottery with the seventh best odds or keep or or or giving Oklahoma City like the tenth pick in the draft in other words this idea that Utah is it's like either a top three pick or nothing it may be closer to like the seventh pick or giving Oklahoma City the tenth pick which hurts but the average value of a tenth pick is like a nice reserve in the NBA so this is clearly the kind of situation that the league wants to address as they continue to look at tanking what should the jazz do Howard I don't even know what they should do it's become a quandary and in parts become a quandary because they should have traded Lowry market in 50 times by now and haven't and look as I say that I'm laughing because like they're actually pretty good for their competitive at least right now and you can start to see the outline of the thing that I didn't think was on the table right my feeling and why you should trade market and was he's already in his uh you know whatever late 20s 27 28 29 where is he um late 20s late 20 by the time he by the time the jazz my premise was this by the time the jazz are relevant again he's going to be more in the mid to late part of his prime as opposed to the early part of his prime and that's burning years and he'd be better off elsewhere you'd be better off being worse that's been my premise the last couple of years that they've had him but they've held on to him and they've extended him and they took themselves out of being able to trade him a year ago during that season um now that you start to get the outline of what actually looks like a functional team and like oh maybe when and when Walker Kester gets back next year we've you know that that kind of helps anger the defense again and we've got you know a one two punch with George and Markin and like the pieces are starting to look interesting there's an upside here and maybe the future that I didn't think was there is that I thought was further off is closer the being relevant again with Markin and so this is why the quandary is there though it's it's because he's still there so if you want to get out of this particular quandary the we can't really blatantly tank again the league is going to be all up our asses and finding us left and right we can't make up injuries they're cracking down anyway injury reporting is getting tighter all this stuff right this is a bad time to start you know messing around with that stuff maybe the answer is doing the thing that they haven't wanted to do in trading marketing um I cringe even as I say that because I usually would only advocate that if you have no hope in the in the next year or two or three and now it's starting to look kind of fun that would be a severe bummer for the jazz and I just think for basketball to do that as a practical matter maybe it's the move and maybe it's the move anyway maybe it is still the best thing for them long term to to build on a different timeline and to to not hold on to him but I don't know what do you think you know who's also watching this not just the league I guarantee you Oklahoma City is watching this oh boy and if if the jazz start messing around and they've you know Markin has been out a couple games recently um I guarantee you Oklahoma City will be on the phone to the league being like what's happening here because this is they want this pick I'm sure they want this pick and they stay have the as rich as they are in picks they've got the clippers pick and a sixor pick and on potentially and on no definitely and on and on this would be just another thing in the another air when the quiver and they just went through this last year with the sixor is doing everything possible to deny them a pick that they owe them which ended up becoming BJ edge comb so yeah this is this is part of the vast morass of moral hazards created by tanking and pick protection and this entire system which the NBA is once again looking to tweak it's why I think one of the proposals that the league will look hard at is something like you can only protect a pick top four or top three or lottery protected this in between stuff goes away in some of these proposals but okay so let me just like it's hard to conceptualize because the lottery has become so much more random with the odds changes that we've seen with Dallas winning it and the spurs were moving up all every year now um if if you taught just sort of rides it out and just let the chips fall where they may they just they may be choosing between paths where path one is um we are not very good and lose a little more than expected we come into the lottery with the seventh or eighth best odds which the most likely scenario is we keep our pick and it's number eight or number seven and it's not one of the top three and it's not one of the top five but we get a good player and a good trade ship but not to banser Peterson or whoever now we there's obviously the chance that going in at number seven and number eight you win the lottery or move up in the lottery and do get one of those guys you just don't know when you play the odds or we play it out we miss the playoffs where competitive and frisky and we give Oklahoma City the 10th or 11th pick in the draft are we okay with that scenario because yeah it's gonna hurt but the average return on that pick is not awesome and uh if those are my two choices as much as I want to look at the lottery odds machine and be like well that's seventh pick I still have a whatever chance at a top I mean I can bring it up right now if I if I come in at number seven I still have like uh 15 30 percent chance at a top four pick in the draft like that's that's not nothing like that that really means something to me as you taught um I'm tempted to just be like letter ride I'm sick of the losing this is fun this is competitive and to your point about marketing I don't think they want to trade marketing and I don't think they're crazy to think George marketing Kessler year two ace Bailey some competent supporting cast we have a ton of cap space we could be competitive next year and it's funny yeah I've been thinking about this I think it was win horse and bontum so one of their Friday like Intel pieces talking about the honest trade landscape and the general superstar trade landscape and stuff we've talked about before about how you and I have talked about specifically about how these deals often don't work out as well as the team acquiring the superstar expects the sons as cautionary tale they talked about how and we've talked about how other teams look at what the sons gave up for Durant as this just this is the in addition to the Clippers and the SGA Paul George co-I think the sons aging superstar totally went busts have to dig out of it that's who we don't want to be and that's all true the flip side of it is the sons are good again already now I know they had Devon Booker sort of sitting there waiting to lead the franchise but I think the happy subplot of the sons as cautionary tale is if you hit some acquisitions if you get the right kinds of players and play really hard and hire a good coach you can be a competitive team in the westerner conference pretty fast off the heels of being a complete disaster team and yeah the sons aren't winning the championship they're not being the thunder the spurs and nuggets but they're fun and everyone there seems happy that could be Utah next year pretty easily so I look as tempted as I'd be to go for the pick I think at this point the way the lottery has unfolded the last couple of years and how well my not well but like how competitive my team has been I'm just I'm letting it ride I'm letting the basketball gods decide my fate I'm cool if we end up giving the 11th pick to the thunder it sucks it's not great but it's at this point and the other thing about trading marketing the last thing I'll let you sort of respond is that sounds great bottom out play the lottery for real the jazz have won 37 31 and 17 games in the last three years and this will be a fourth year under 500 and when you trade marketing and kind of bottom out again you are looking at you could be 10 years in the morass of being a losing team and that in that market is probably not palatable. Yeah and there's no guarantees in the lottery and less guarantees than ever because of the new system and so you know you're a worst case scenario here where you trade marketing and we don't know what you're getting back for him you trade marketing it's probably going to be you know pick heavy maybe some young players but not another all stark is that would defeat the purpose of being worse in the short term and then the worst case scenario goes the lottery balls don't bounce your way you slip to wherever you get an okay player but not a franchise changing superstar and now you're just that much worse off for it and that much further off from becoming a winning team again the thing I always try to remind myself and remind others is that there are bigger forces at work sometimes in these decisions then simply how do we get a superstar well we can't trade for one well we could try to trade for one but we're a small market with the extent we can't get one of free agency because we're a small market we got to play the lottery that's the way to do this if you're a small market team in the NBA okay great it doesn't always work out you can try it repeatedly and have it not work out and in the meantime the other force that we all overlook sometimes is you have to sell tickets you have fans who you have to keep faith with and after you've had a few losing seasons patient starts to wear thin you know fans are much sav your now than they ever have been we all are in terms of like this very cynical framework that we've all bought into for the last decade really I can talk about that in a second but like the tanking era and the era of us all discussing it this way Zach really didn't start until about 2013 14 the Andrew Wiggins Jabari Parker Joelle and B draft that is where this all began I'm not saying tanking never happened the NBA but tanking as a strategy that we all discuss openly that team's discussed that the media and fans discuss and that we all kind of buy into and we are complicit in is this idea that this is a path it's a viable path it's not great there are moral hazards but hey this is the system if the NBA didn't want it they could they could do away with it so we all end up endorsing this right you and I can sit here in both say with feeling just fine about it Dallas would be better off because they own their pick this year and they have all their picks are encumbered for years to come they be better off being as bad as possible right now get another piece next to Cooper flag that's the timeline you're on and by the way I think the constant antit I said this last week I think the constant constant Anthony Davis health issues are enabling a sort of organic again you're not going to catch the three or four worst teams in the league fine yeah go in like let the season play out you'll probably get a lottery pick and like if I'm not trading Anthony Davis for peanuts when I can come back next year same thing I just said about the Sun's cautionary tale applies to the Mavericks Kyrie AD Cooper flag lottery pick NEM hard some PJ Washington so now they've got some different issues and salaries she's like you could easily be a feel good story next year again not a contender but a feel good story as you pivot to the next iteration of your team yeah but only is this only three teams are picking in the top three that's it like it's not seven teams don't get the pick in the top three yeah and then listen look you even if you did everything possible try to get the high pick and you went up at fourth or fifth or sixth we know how this goes we you know everybody all the draft experts can do what they do in the scouts and everybody do what they do and there may be a franchise stud waiting at eight instead and one of those top three guys ends up becoming just a good player instead of a great player right again everybody wanted to tank for Andrew Wiggins once upon a time he's just become a very good solid starter not a superstar um so I just think that it's it's a complicated framework complicated calculus and if you were a team like the jazz um you still have to have in the back of your mind we have to sell tickets we have to keep favor with our fans we can't lose that many years in a row at some point you have to turn the corner and maybe this is the time that they're doing it organically and maybe that means that you are giving up this pick to the thunder wherever it lands I also think let me throw this at you this is going to sound like the most naive premise slash question ever but I'm just going to ask this now that we are once again in a moment where the league is considering all these new potential measures and you and Goldberg talked about some of this last week to try to curb tanking eliminate tanking whatever it may be do we actually need it and the reason I ask is this I'm looking at all those teams you just listed at the top of the pod who's actually tanking tanking like Washington yes absolutely the Pacers have the worst record in the league they did not plan to be here are they leaning into it I don't know they've been injury racked beyond belief they did trade miles turner after you know losing Halibut into the Achilles but like I don't think the Pacers are tanking so somebody within the league strongly suggested from another team that they that they were but I don't believe that the Pelicans have no incentive to tank as we know the kings just suck because they're the kings the Hornets are are you know like fun as you mentioned but like the Hornets are just who they are because just they are the Clippers have no incentive to tank they would much rather not be tanking or losing and we sometimes lose use tanking and losing interchangeably and we shouldn't and then there's some confused teams here right the nets as you mentioned there's seven and three there last time with the number one defense in the NBA in that time the Mavericks are trying to win they should tank but they're trying to win jazz trying to win orland trying to win like how many teams truly at this moment are tanking like Washington indisputably yes and the kings they were crappy anyway will lean into it some of these teams were crappy anyway and lean into it but like do we do we really have a a tanking crisis at the moment or do we have certain instances like the Sixers last year like the Wizards now the nets were the nets are designed to tank but Jordy Fernandez is just like refusing to allow it to happen I don't know I'm not I don't mean to be naive I'm just saying it's a really interesting array when you look at the top and a bunch of the teams that were supposedly tanking or winning a bunch and some of the teams that are high in the lottery at the moment don't actually want to be there so how much of a crisis do we really have we will get to the net shortly another team I was I was semi wrong about I joked that the front office had Jordy proofed the roster and they have not Jordy proved the roster because again winning more games than I think they intended to win I think it's a great point because I like the new lottery odds I as I've said many times I still think the worst teams should have the highest picks by and large and that doesn't mean that they should we should go back to the old lottery odds but I like the this is just the cycle of sports and I don't like an unweighted lottery I don't like all 30 teams get the same odds at the number one pick or whatever because I don't like the the best teams you get the number one pick because I just think that that extends the polarization of the the halves and the halves and odds for too long I believe in a semi reverse order draft semi I think this odd system is actually done its job of yeah if you're the wizards or whoever your worst case you know this happened to the pistons multiple the pistons were picking fifth every year your worst case scenario is you pick fifth you still got a good player it's not like you're picking 14th it's not like you fall to the back of the lottery if you're the worst team and the second worst team you still pick top five top six at worst and in a lot of years you'll win the lottery or come second or third or whatever and yet it's clearly more random than it used to be and I think this is a nice sweet spot the lega's found where if we let this sit for 15 or 20 years I do think it will change behavior at the low end a little bit because the payoff just isn't there anymore to be abysmally bad on purpose separating out the sixers jazz protected pick situations that we're talking about I kind of like where the league has landed on on the lottery odds themselves it's back to the jazz the only thing that would sway me on like the let it ride keep marketing path is if a team not only bold to be over with like a crazy offer for marketing I'm talking like a like a four first two swaps but if that teams picks or the picks I was getting had a reasonable chance of actually being high picks in the next five years in other words the pistons for market and if I'm just getting pistons picks they're probably going to be bottom 10 picks in the first round every year for the next five years boring catastrophic wave of injuries that's just not worth it to me given all the other variables we've talked about idle money lies in your current account picking crumbs out of its belly button wondering should I eat them but when you start investing with monzo your money's always busy it turns on regular investments invests your spare change and tops up your stocks and shares I say it even helps you make sense a risk and return monzo the bank that gets your money moving you could get back less than your invest monzo current account required UK residence 18 plus T's and C's apply all right let's talk about some of these other teams at the bottom of the lottery that are frisky um the clippers I think of of all of these sort of teams right around the jazz record wise I think the clippers are the one that's most clearly incentivized to try to keep winning and may actually be able to keep winning at a reasonable ish level to sort of nudge their way up toward I mean there are only two games out of the play and race in the lost column right now to nudge their way up toward 500 like they were always playing way below their talent level yeah harden and koai look fantastic this need or house or kid who's now their backup five with zoo bots out is is really interesting but tomb has been a godsend for them I don't darejohn jr is back and plugs a lot of holes for them defensively um they've been playing well and I don't really see any reason why they should not be let's say at worst I don't know I don't know what they should be because they were so bad at the beginning of the season but if you told me the clippers are three games above 500 for the rest of the season and so they finish what would that be eight games below 500 or maybe a little better than that and they're in the plan race I think that's totally reasonable yeah I their team should should should just be way better than their record just based on talent and koai was all time legendary stuff last night against Detroit yeah no question and you know the like the clippers as we say never had any incentive to tank it's shocking that they were losing as much as they were in the first place everything belied their talent level their results from last season when they won 50 games um and and it wasn't like it wasn't one of those a health issue for once they've had some health issues but not to the degree they've had in the past and they've won they won a ton of games without koai last year so I didn't know it was hard to explain what was happening to the clippers early in the season I heard chemistry was a little wonky and whatever maybe that's just ironed itself out and um koai looks awesome it does begs a question again though where if you're the clippers and you have designed this entire era to expire in about a year and a half from now can you sell high on koai can you sell high on ardon like I know you I think you've dabbled in those those discussions on the pod already but like they're finally looking like they could turn the corner on this season at least be competitive being the play in race maybe make the playoffs um I'm not sure that for a little long term that actually is their best path forward but again this is where we get into these moral hazards and all these quantities of short term versus long term planning banking on the lottery you didn't expect to be there uh in their case it doesn't even matter because it's not your pick um regardless so they have no incentive to do that so I'm not saying they should tank what I am saying is selling high on some of your better players might set you up for the future that you are clearly already planning for in 2027 and beyond because everybody but zubots is going to be a free agent by then and you're clearly not re-upping hard and and and koai so if the era is already over the draft pick is a sunk cost and koai is is just freaking killing people right now um I don't know it's an intriguing thought between now and the trade deadline yeah I mean I've made that the sunk argument before I just don't think there's anything like selling high on hard and or koai I think zubots is the one guy they could sell high on and I'm just I want to see what the next month looks like for me if I'm Lawrence Frank and the Clippers I want to see how well the team plays and what bomber wants to do if the team is in the play and race solidly in two weeks which they could easily be I probably just think they stand pat and do nothing because I don't think there's a great hard and dealer certainly I mean koai who I'm just I know one knows what to do with koai's trade value at all given everything everything they also think like the the thing about them is you know this era was set to expire in a year or two the hard and trade push that expiration back they don't control their pick in 2028 or 2029 now so they're kind of in an interesting spot in that sense I think I think they're playing really well um and they've turned a little bit of a corner we'll see how how high they can actually get but they they should be a competitive team the more wild card team teams to me are the nets and the hornets in the eastern conference the hornets are 11 and 20 I have no idea what they want to do um if they want to take another real bite at the lottery or if they're fine just sort of hey if this team ends up being a 33 win team we're cool with that um and the nets you know having lived through this idea that they were going to tank their way into the Cooper Flip sweepstabes last year and ending up with the eighth pick in the draft among their many first round picks they're 10 and 19 and again like super competitive we talked about their defense and I think both of these seems have some veterans who could who you could easily trade uh sexed in being the headliner I think for Charlotte um the nets have camp Thomas who just came back and has played well for them all season and Michael boarded junior who should be in the all-star conversation despite the nets record those are easily movable pieces um I'm just kind of fascinated by what the nets the what the nets the nets small my god uh what the nets do I I could see them trading border and and if they got value for him and I liked I built and I completely disagreed on the initial border treat I liked that trade for the nets at the time I thought they got decent value for it same for camp time and um and camp Thomas like I just don't know what kind of trade value he has on it expiring whatever million dollar six million dollar contract or something like that he's only he just turned 24 he's been legit productive for them and gets better as a player every year I don't think any team is going to like blow the doors off camp Thomas and unrestricted free agency I don't I don't hate the idea of like bringing him back on a reasonable contract as part of this team going forward um but they they've been I don't know what they do they could trade all these vets and and try like claxon is gonna have a we're gonna talk about the warriors in a second claxon's gonna have a lot of trade interests from teams who need size and centers and defense um and they could definitely like claxon and sharp both have been very good for them and keep trading one or both of them is another easy way to bottom out but again like they're I mean they're they're seven games ahead of the patience in the lost column four ahead of the wizards I it's gonna be hard to get where they I think kind of intended to go and I I like watching this team play they're fun to watch yeah and I'll be uh watching them at barklaced tonight against the warriors um I'm not saying this for tanking purposes I'm just saying this for practical long-term planning purposes you might as well sell high on my reporter junior right like he's a guy like the reason bill was down on that trade and I think some others were too was like you know uh Michael Porter junior huge contract back issues all of that um and and some other things that are mostly to do with off court stuff um that he has had to uh rain in a little bit but Michael Porter junior definitely like a dicey proposition to have uh for various reasons he's got another year left after this season you know his value has probably never been higher I don't think anybody thought he could do this as almost a solo act right on a team with very little I think the nets are like 19th 20th somewhere there in offensive efficiency uh they're they're dreadful they've actually been pretty solid because of their defense uh the last month but Michael Porter junior you know shouldering a much bigger load no yoke and murried it to play off of he's acquitted himself pretty well and I think his value probably is even higher now than it was um then any point during his nuggets career minus maybe the moments after they won the championship so why not and not it necessarily for tanking and lottery purposes although that could be an added benefit and if you're not going to listen you you make a very good point mathematically it's going to be hard to reach the top three teams bottom through slash bottom three teams and in the odds but every slot is a little bit better odds at jumping in more or less the odds are weird and they're intentionally weird um but why not why why not just take again take the step back to take the step forward later it's not again it's not as though the future net's team that is competitive and relevant again involves Michael Porter junior anyway and who knows what happens as we now in the end of that contract he's 27 years old so he's not like you know ancient um at all he's in his prime uh he has next year at 41 million dollars left on his contract it's not like the nets are you know starved for cap flexibility either way who knows what his contract after that looks like mpj is a legit awesome offensive player um he cuts he moves off the ball he can take two dribbles and make a play now um he's crafty and sort of in between spaces when he catches the ball on the move and obviously the shooting is a plus plus at his size nets are 115 points for 100 possessions with him on the floor 104 without him now maybe camtomas will kind of lift those numbers up a little bit i like i wouldn't be in a hurry i'm just i like i wouldn't be and i like his fit you drafted all of these young sort of on ball-ish creators yeah who could use a guy like that to pass to and play like i don't hate the idea of keeping him either if the offers aren't great um he again he's 27 he's not 32 i i they're just fun to watch and i again we've learned this thing about the lottery is it's it's no it's no guarantee and Charlotte again same boat like i just if i'm all these teams i'm just i just just let it ride i'm let's have some fun and you know by the way i just want to say i just want to say this about Charlotte deep cut Howard Beck t john salon is kind of starting to happen a little bit um he said a really encouraging month for them that picked look like it was going to be a complete bust he started out the season horribly they sent him to the g league um you know they had offers from teams trying to move up and get clinging and edy to get that pick at the in the draft it was the six pick i believe he's been pretty solid lately and they might have something at least a rotate a good rotation player in him that's all i don't know all these teams are interesting and it just it just i just it complicates it lana's calculus these of you the pelican's pick it complicates utas calculus like where are we going to fall when all the chips are down i don't know i just think it's really fun to have all these teams competing that's what the lottery odds minus this protected pick thing that you toss during our design to encourage i like it let's have some fun any parting thoughts on any of this before we go to the warriors briefly nope good to go so i was there last night that's as rough of a loss as the as a team really reaching to find itself can have and the turnovers again it's been the story of their season they're 26th in turnover rate and these are just like a bismal turnovers half-court trap turn they go up seven with a minute and 40 to go curry hits a three he's talking to the crowd he's talking to the bench it's like for we've seen this movie a lot this the games though he didn't do night night he knows better now i can't do night night until there's like one second left and we're up by 10 with this team and then they collapse in a haze of turnovers and i was at Steve i went to watch Steve curse press conference after the game because i wanted to see what he said as despondent as you will see him in a post game press conference considering they had to fly to Brooklyn right the New York right away for a game tonight and he took the blame for a dream on turnover late in the game when they called a classic warriors play a variation on their cycle and play that they've run a million times and dream on through the ball away he's been insanely turned over prone this year made a lot of threes last night play great still one of the 10 best defense players in the NBA um they've really been at an existential crisis since they won the championship in 2022 i wrote about them a lot it he has been i wrote about them when they lost to the kings in the play and uh whatever year that was i think the following year um and just like i the feel good ending was the championship and the most likely story for this team ever since the wise men with ever since the two time lines thing which was an accident kind of didn't you know hasn't born the same ralow fruit has been exactly what's happening now where you compete like hell around stuff and you're a good team but the young guys aren't ready in time for the old guys and the young guys really don't have the kind of ceiling to carry the franchise after the old guys are gone and i wrote i remember writing this in that column talking about clays free agency that was upcoming that there's honor there's honor in being a good team in the western conference and not being contender there's honor and raging against the dying of the light there's honor in giving stuff a competitive team with the resources that you have and they tried to get Paul Georgia tried to get mark and they tried to get the rappers up and they ended up with Jimmy Butler on the cheap and want 23 and seven or something like that down the stretch last year they're a good team and they're not a contender the windows closed there's honor in being a good team and when Steve Kerr gave those comments last week i'm sure you saw this when he said we're a fading dynasty yeah and there's beauty in the struggle i thought of the column that i wrote three years ago about how there's honor in how this next few years are going to unfold there's not going to be glory but there's going to be honor and it really sounded like he was saying the same thing when he said beauty in the struggle fading dynasty there was a level of acceptance that it's just not going to happen again for us and all we're trying to do is squeeze every last thing we have out of step dream on Butler for this year for next year whatever hope to get hot hope to catch a team that has an injury in the first round have fun have some fun playoff home games give Steph a real kind of send off to his career and that's where they are and this game against the raptors it was just like dream on dream on that center is not the same weapon it once was scottie barns just got 9,000 rebounds and towered over all of them dream on's more turnover prone than he's ever been nobody on this team wants to shoot twos they are like the i think only one team has taken fewer twos than them and obviously that's partly because they take lots of threes but they shoot twos horribly they pass out of layups all the time they're just so starved for athleticism and size quintin post aint it just doesn't do enough stuff doesn't make enough shots doesn't do enough big man stuff warfords been mostly out of the lineup i don't even know what they do but beauty in the struggle the way they looked last night seeing them in person it feels like they've reached the phase of acceptance and that that's okay i just don't know i don't know that there's any move that changes their life like the butler move changed their life last year no it feels like that was the last real card to play right the last big bullet of fire and like even when i hear them linked to like anthony davis discussions and again we know all that the the risk to to doing an anthony davis deal just on his health alone to say nothing of contract getting to the number that you need to to get an anthony davis or anybody of impact almost automatically means butler or draemon greener going out in those deals it's really really really hard if not impossible to make any significant deal for another star level player without that and i don't know that they want to do that and people can say whatever they want about draemon and the stuff that happened last week and everything like draemon's not going anywhere as long as step is there steve cur is not going anywhere as long as step is there those three i believe are walking off into the sunset together or at least that i think is what they would like to do so i don't see a scenario here where there's a last gas effort to you know breathe some new life into this fading dynasty by trading one of the key pieces pieces of that dynasty to get somebody else um and then it would be jimmy butler i mean would they do that they obviously don't have any real um you know a long-term attachment or deep ties to him they could do that it just doesn't seem likely i thought the more likely scenario would be the the the proverbial joth and kuminga trade the the fantasy kuminga trade uh which may become reality soon enough but kuminga plus whatever pods moody picks whatever it is to you to what end i know i know i know i know i know i well i i'm minimum sorry i'll let you finish but like to what end it's at minimum to not be what they were last night right or a lot of these other you know just devastating uh heart crushing losses to what end is to at least not squander i say this all the time i said this about lebron a few years ago when the legress were flailing all over the place you cannot squander the last great years of a superstar who still has greatness left in them and stef does but he's his usage right now is at like 33.9 i looked it up real quick and then i lost the thread here on my on my screen but like the the number of players who have had a usage of even 32 and above at age 37 and above it's like lebron a couple of times kobi and i found like an eddy johnson season in houston i don't know what was going on then you like this is highly unusual this is too much of a burden on stef shoulders um it really was hammered home watching him person last night the rat i mean how hard he has to work to get any space and the raptors entire defense was work top locking you everywhere on the court and making you be a cutter and making you shoot twos and he took a ton of layups a ton of twos ton of flailing reverse layups that he missed it's just so hard for him and one of the reasons this hard for him is because draemon's older the whole team is older stef drawing two on the ball and draemon in open space with a four on three is just not the same level of fear that it was five years ago four years ago three years ago it doesn't inspire the same level of fear it doesn't inspire the same level of panic rotations it doesn't open the same level of space for everybody else jimmy butler has just been good good um he's never going to be a huge score that's just not how he plays they need more from him he's just been good i've heard he really likes it there i want to stay there i want to time up his contract with stef as it is right now um and yes to get a d it has to be kominga plus a big salary or jimmy butler alone and if you're going to get a d and we keep saying this about all these teams number one there are two realities you have to accept number one is he's injured a lot and number two is his jump shot is is broken and his been broken since the bubble and so the idea that you're going to put him on a team like there's these fake trades with him going to detroit which i just never understood on a team that already struggles for shooting and the warriors when they play draemon and butler it's hard to throw another non shooter into that equation which is why kominga hasn't played and by the way i'll take another all on kominga i've been a big kominga optimist uh he's certainly shown flashes i don't think the warriors have handled his career very well i say that even knowing being the kind of player he is sort of athlete first learning to field the game out doing that on a team with championship aspirations and veterans is going to be very hard he has not played well enough this season in the opportunities that he's been given period and he's going to get traded i don't know what they're going to get for him but there are two kinds of trades there's like the we don't give up much of our trove of assets and they can trade three picks right now um for you know a small upgrade like like a claxon a decent center who can help fortify our front line and prevent draemon from having to play centers so much and get brutalized on the glass like last night they're 26th and defense of rebounding for the season um or the big trade where we do expend a lot of our assets for a big big fish i a i don't know who that fish is and b they have talked including draemon have talked pretty openly about you shouldn't do that if it doesn't put you in the title conversation right away that's what he talked about with markinan and paul george or markinan alone he talked about it on his podcast and i don't see a deal like that anywhere so i don't know what they're going to do but this was always it man and i still love watching them play i the crowd was super fired up for step last night in Toronto it's like that everywhere he goes there are good team and on the right night they can beat anybody and that's fine there's honor and that this is what happens to old teams and this is just what it is it is uh quick correction to myself for a minute here the eddy johnson season was three games this is what happens when i'm uh glancing really quickly down at basketball reference to quickly but no so the the 32 usage and up at 37 age 37 and up it's a it's a few lebron seasons a caramelone season a kobi a jordan um and that's it for guys who played at least you know 50 games and up and then there's there's some you know a dominating the twenty-seven games but relevant to our discussion they're playing afrooklin tonight on a back-to-back not optimistic about the worst chances winning in brooklin on a back-to-back i just you know they could lose the skit they could lose again tonight i would pick brooklin to win this game probably the way brooklin's playing i'm just hoping stef plays because my daughter's home from college and we're going to the game tonight i'm bringing her with me and uh stef put on a great show when i managed to get her to a game during her spring break last season uh hoping for an encore so i'm just uh figures crossed that that stef and the vets play we're also not guaranteed i i think that um they're various places you can draw the line for what's worth it right and and yes you should not mortgage the entire future to try to infuse a few breaths into a dying dynasty but i do think as much fun as it inst still to watch stef and to watch stef and draimond do their thing or just to watch whatever version of the warriors this is if you could get a claxon or if you can get you know one other ball handler playmaker so that everybody who's getting trapped isn't coughing the ball up as they were repeatedly last night i'm not saying stef was free of that either but every time it seemed like anybody else at the ball they were getting trapped on the sideline and coughing the ball up whatever you can do to make these games more meaningful and to keep stef in the running for for the playoffs and then yeah punchers chance as long as it doesn't mortgage a ton of the future i say go for it he's still freaking awesome he is awesome in a way to glue it back to the stat i was just mentioning about usage rate he is awesome in a way that guys at this age never are or never have been in the past it's basically just him and lebron right now i want to see those guys on good respectable teams that have a chance to do something i would rather not just see oh we got to see a couple of like logo threes and a couple of night nights and you know they're going to finish with 37 wins like that that's that's just too much of a bummer i think they will do that and i think they will be patient as they were last year and if there's something that falls into their laps like they got Jimmy for not much right yeah like i don't i don't think there's going to be a deal at that price for that quality of player that was obviously like he kind of forces way out of Miami and drove his price down a little bit um but i think they'll be patient and see if they can steal somebody good on the cheap and you said something else interesting and i care remember what it was anyway um i know you wanted to talk about the Celtics before you go do you want to talk about the Celtics or do you need to go um no i'm good i've uh let the uh folks from the other pro i'll be a little late to the meeting um i the Celtics are absolutely fascinating partially because going back to the tanking discussion we all talked about gap years whatever there's another uh modern construct we've all created right that's this gap here it's gap year for the Pacers gap year for the Celtics take advantage of the one time as a really good team or a great team to get a high pick might as well shaylon brown had other plans clearly jama zoolah at other plans to an extent i think we should like here's the team we should all be mea coupling if i can uh create a really obnoxious verb that doesn't deserve to exist that like we we have completely undersold them and now they've been so competitive and jaylon brown's been so freaking good that the shajason tateum i don't want to say rushback come back as soon as possible from the achilles is in play in a very real way um i i i guess there was a footage of tateum working out with brad stevens there's an unusual scene you're superstar and your gm team president doing the workouts as you're rehabbing from an achilles it's i mean i i don't know if that's a sign or not it's certainly will be interpreted and is being interpreted that way that he's going to be back this season the achilles usually meant at least a season out although um i did reach out this morning to our friend jeff stots who of course does the great in street clothes blog and all of his other social media feeds um it's not unheard of right um for this for for a guy to come back this soon uh coming back in less than a year from the achilles elton brand did it kobi did it west math use all did it in about 240 days according jeff stots average time lost is roughly 10 months so given when tateum went out it's a close call but maybe he's back in the regular season certainly there have been advances in you know medicine and rehab and everything else it's mid may right because i think it was the same night as the lottery i think it was all that yes one night was tateum injured flagged to Dallas was like a seismic NBA three hours so 10 months is like mid march that would give you a month of regular season to get you know to get going again i think we all naturally all especially all of us who are not in medicine we just recoil at the thought of it like oh man don't get don't get drawn into this don't rush back just because suddenly the Celtics are better than expected and risk something but one i don't think any team is going to risk a jason tateum not the Celtics not anybody they're going to make sure that every last doctor on earth has signed off before they clear him sometimes you come back and you're not yourself this is the other note from Jeff Stotz that you know listen you you may come back at the 10 month mark that is on the quote unquote early side but you may not be a hundred percent of yourself in terms of your explosiveness and your movement and everything else but it doesn't necessarily mean you're at risk of hurting yourself either it just may mean that you are not absolutely back to your full powers even that version of jason tateum would be an asset to a Celtics team that has a window here so then it becomes is it worth it not only with the win lost lottery draft all this whatever you know this version of tateum is it enough i think we also need to remember too that like these windows are finite and sometimes they're a lot shorter than you think they're going to be they've been to two finals they've won one championship there no ones guaranteed another finals run no matter how great tateum and brown are we've already seen them have to shed all these key pieces for salary cap purposes and apron purposes and those are forces that are always bearing down on you tateum and brown salaries is just going to keep going up because that's the way the system works if you've got an opportunity in this east is wide open year maybe you're the team that should be taking advantage of that as much as the pistons or the nicks or anybody else that we've discussed maybe it was the Celtics all along having played this well without tateum and tateum now having a realistic chance to come back if it's not going to risk his health why not i think it's one of the most fascinating things to watch in the second half of the season i out of just my own caution and my pessimism about the Celtics which was off base kind of just wrote him out in my brain for this will just be a law season yeah yeah here i feel very confident about two things in this situation number one uh the Celtics will not you not rush him back and in fact would be prepared to say no to him if he feels ready to play and there's the least bit of caution that maybe they should wait a little bit longer they're going to be fine with that number two he will not be Jason tateum that we know anytime this season all the history of Achilles tears and recovery would suggest that he will be there will be a time where he's 80% of himself rediscovering his explosiveness his lateral movement all of that and yet even that player with his shooting ability his size even if he's a secondary playmaker screener whatever he's in a in elite defensive player and a very good rebounder even that guy taking some taking all some of the minutes that are going to some of their backups is a huge asset to this team and one that can play that role given that jalen brown is leveled up as a ball handler paid and pictured his leveled up as a ball handler i'm not sure d'Arc white has leveled up as a ball handler but i do want to shout him out for this reason he's shooting 39.5% overall 35% on threes 46% on two i don't even care because that dude plays so fucking hard every second he's on the floor he might be having his best defensive season of his illustrious all defensive level career he's a maniac and it never waivers and it never turns off and he takes enough threes that that 35% on volume like that almost makes up for the like what look on the surface like traditionally bad fuel glow percentage stats he has been like the best 39% shooter that i can remember in the history of the NBA and you throw all that together and simons like maybe they keep it maybe they dump him he's another ball handler i don't know jason tate him doesn't have to be like running 30 picking rules of game and ten isos and that jason tate him anytime this season this team is actually constructed for him to be apex role player jason tate him for two months and yeah like i don't think i think there's just too much uncertainty for me to say they could do you know beat the nicks in a playoff series win the east or whatever but like again like who are they scared they're third in the east as is like it is one of the more i mean i can hear bill right now oh this is what i wanted to say bill speaking of bill he texted me and he demanded credit for this talking about the warriors he wants to talk a jimmy butler for lebron james trade into into the into the ether and it's his trade actually might make more teams both teams a little bit more entertaining but anyway um look hats off to joh musula i'm not sure he's the frontrunner for coach of the year there's always a lot of candidates but he's been unbelievable jones been unbelievable they're a great story and they play super super hard across the board there's something that i think has become evident in this version of the mba this hyper parity era and it's the same thing when you mentioned earlier with the sons they didn't take this massive step back because they still have devon booker because of the way the mba this talent is spread around right now if you have one elite offensive guy devon booker jalen brown at least one or two other guys who are competent and you play your asses off and everybody defends you can be pretty competitive like we're we are long past i'm not saying there are no super teams i'm not this is no disrespect to the thunder or anybody else or what the spurs are becoming but we are long past the era where it was like you got to have your your two absolute studs or three guys or what in this version of the mba because of how the talent is spread around and how many just good teams there are just average teams or to below average teams you can make a lot of hay in the regular season by having one elite offensive player which jalen brown is a Derek white a patent pritchard a little bit of a leap here from a cata and a minot or whoever like you can you can play your asses off around the one supreme offensive player and win a lot of games Howard Beck i got i got a couple more takes i got to i have a scorching heat take i think i'm gonna table it for today i don't think i'm ready to say it out loud yet no insights to mediocrity this week uh that may have gotten back to my family this is the thing about the other way i was worried i was worried about that particular insights to mediocrity chapter like could they over here in the background did they watch it later did you walk downstairs and suddenly everybody's like just like staring through you like what how did that play look i'm not gonna comment on this but there will be more insights to mediocrity in the future we're not gonna overdo this bit but it's a good bit i'm i'm i'm an elite mediocre person Howard Beck real ones the ringer dot com what else anything else you got to plug just general brooklyn life just just general brooklyn life looking forward to net warriors tonight um and yeah if uh anybody wants to find me on social media hit me a blue sky uh Howard thank you sir go to your meeting star your late always a pleasure sir all right that's it for today's episode of the Zach Lowe show thank you to the great Howard Beck thank you to Mike Billy and Jonathan on production thank you to everyone out there for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe show we'll see you later this week must be 21 or over in president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 and over in president DC can tuck you or while me gambling problem called 1 800 gambler visit rg-help.com call 1-888-789-7777 of visit ccpg.org-chat and can advocate orgs as a md gambling help.org in Maryland hope is here visit gambling help.line ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1877-8 hope and why or text hope and why in New York