AgDay Podcast

AgDay 04/22/26

20 min
Apr 22, 20266 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

AgDay covers record-breaking planting pace in the South driven by dry conditions, mixed Midwest weather challenges, USDA data transparency initiatives, and DOJ antitrust investigations into beef and egg pricing. The episode features on-the-ground reporting from farmers across multiple regions managing weather volatility and rising input costs.

Insights
  • Southern farmers achieving record planting speeds (Tennessee soybeans 41 points ahead of normal) but facing paradoxical challenge where excessive dryness now prevents continued planting, creating operational uncertainty
  • Midwest experiencing bifurcated conditions: some farmers 70% complete while others haven't started, creating significant regional competitive disadvantage based on timing and soil moisture
  • Input cost inflation (diesel $1.80/gallon higher YoY in Illinois) is eroding margins faster than commodity price increases, forcing farmers to adopt cost-reduction strategies like strip-till and contract hedging
  • USDA facing credibility pressure on data accuracy with public comment period and Kansas City meeting indicating systemic concerns about reporting methodology and confidence levels
  • Pork industry margins remain compressed despite Prop 12 implementation driving 20% retail price premiums in California, suggesting regulatory costs are not translating to producer profitability
Trends
Extreme weather volatility becoming operational norm: simultaneous record planting pace and drought-induced stoppages in same region within daysRegional weather divergence widening competitive gaps between early-starting and delayed-start farmers, potentially affecting yield outcomes and market timingInput cost inflation outpacing commodity price recovery, forcing operational model changes (strip-till adoption, fertilizer timing shifts, non-GMO premium strategies)USDA data credibility erosion driving institutional response: transparency initiatives and public feedback mechanisms indicate loss of stakeholder confidenceAntitrust enforcement focus on agricultural supply chain (beef auction pricing, egg producer coordination, meatpacker conduct) signaling regulatory shift toward market concentration concernsTractor and combine sales decline (9-15% YoY) suggesting farmer capital expenditure pullback amid margin pressure and economic uncertaintyNew World screwworm northward migration into Mexico border zone (60 miles from US) escalating biosecurity threat requiring enhanced monitoring and control protocolsGrain market volatility driven by crude oil correlation and geopolitical factors (ceasefire uncertainty) rather than domestic supply fundamentalsPork futures strength in summer contracts creating margin opportunity window but with 'dead zone' in late spring limiting cash procurementCalifornia Prop 12 implementation creating 20% retail price differential and consumption decline, fueling farm bill legislative push for interstate commerce protections
Topics
Corn planting progress and regional pace variationsSoybean planting records and weather dependencyDrought conditions and soil moisture managementDiesel fuel cost inflation and input economicsStrip-till and conservation tillage adoptionNon-GMO crop premiums and market differentiationUSDA data collection and reporting transparencyDOJ antitrust investigations in agricultureBeef cattle pricing and auction practicesEgg producer coordination and pricing benchmarksNew World screwworm biosecurity threatGrain futures and crude oil market correlationPork producer margins and Prop 12 compliance costsTractor and combine equipment sales trendsSevere weather patterns and tornado frequency
Companies
USDA
Hosting Kansas City data users meeting to address reporting accuracy concerns and transparency following public comme...
Department of Justice
Investigating beef cattle auction pricing practices and meatpacker conduct; preparing antitrust lawsuit against major...
Professional Ag Marketing
Provides commodity market analysis on grain and livestock futures, discussing soybean oil rallies and cattle market c...
Sterling Marketing
Estimates pork farrow-to-finish margins at $55-56 per head and provides break-even analysis for finished hog marketing
North Dakota State University
Conducted research showing California Prop 12 compliance costs result in 20% higher pork retail prices and $350M cons...
Association of Equipment Manufacturers
Released monthly flash report showing tractor sales down 9% and combine sales down 4% as of March 2026
Farm Journal
Produces AgDay podcast and conducted interview with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden on data transparency initiatives
Triple A
Reports average diesel price in Illinois at $1.80 more per gallon compared to prior year
NOAA
Provides severe weather data showing Illinois leads nation with 80 tornado reports as of April 19, 2026
Bloomberg
Reports DOJ investigation into cattle auction pricing practices and meatpacker conduct
Wall Street Journal
Reports DOJ antitrust lawsuit preparation against major egg producers for alleged price coordination through benchmar...
People
Haley Bicklehop
Hosts AgDay podcast and conducts field reporting from farmers across multiple regions
Stephen Vaden
Discusses USDA data transparency initiatives, public comment process, and continuous improvement goals in interview w...
Matt McCarthy
Featured on Plant Your Independence Tour; reports 70% corn planting completion with perfect soil conditions in northw...
Chris Schenck
Discusses fertilizer applications and delayed planting due to forecast rain; represents Midwest weather-delayed farmers
Derek Burnickel
Reports limited field work progress after recent rain with fields still drying out
Pat Sheldon
Reports 350 acres of corn planted on lighter ground with farmers racing to finish before next rain
Cody White
Reports tornado damage from Friday storms and delayed planting due to field drying requirements
Chris Harrell
Featured on Plant Your Independence Tour; discusses rain delays, equipment testing, and non-GMO crop premiums as marg...
Dave Harrell
Father of Chris Harrell with 40 years farming experience; discusses weather delays, diesel costs, and strip-till cost...
Sid Miller
Emphasizes seriousness of New World screwworm case found 60 miles from US border in Nuevo Leon, Mexico
Mike Miner
Provides commodity market analysis on soybean oil rallies, crude oil correlation, and cattle market corrections
Michelle Rook
Hosts Markets Now segment interviewing Mike Miner on grain and livestock futures analysis
Chris Bennett
Investigates historical mystery of woman found in coffin along Yazoo River in Mississippi dating to mid-1800s
Jim Thomas
Discovered metal coffin with preserved woman in red dress while digging septic system in 1969
Ryan Sorrell
Featured in video segment planting sunflowers; provides picture of the day content
Quotes
"We've been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we've been so dry. Can't just get the planter in the ground."
Farmer (Southern region)Early in episode
"This is uncharted territory for him. Many farmers in this area say that this is the driest start to planting that they've ever seen."
Haley BicklehopDrought conditions segment
"USDA data needs to be the gold standard, and we need to be brave enough to take feedback. Everyone can always improve."
Stephen Vaden, USDA Deputy SecretaryUSDA transparency segment
"Weather wise we could got stuff in on time but this year it's pushing us back a little, but still I mean, we've got ample time, you know, it's still middle of April, so we'll be fine."
Dave HarrellCarthage, Illinois farmer segment
"The diesel prices I think is number one. I mean, the price of corn's gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it's not gone up enough."
Dave HarrellInput cost discussion
Full Transcript
From the studios of Farm Journal Broadcast, this is Ag Day. Dry conditions are speeding up planting across parts of the south, pushing farmers towards a record pace in some states. I'm Haley Bicklehop, but for other farmers, it's doing the opposite. It's forcing planters to stop as soils turn too dry to work. Well, let's take a look at the latest corn planting numbers from USDA, where farmers in Kentucky and Tennessee are seeing the fastest planting pace since 2012. In Tennessee, farmers already have 64% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday. That's a huge jump, 40 points ahead of average and 42 points ahead of this time last year. And over in Kentucky, growers are also moving quickly, with nearly half the corn crop already planted and about 30 points ahead of normal. Well, soybeans also moving fast in the south. Louisiana is out front with 58% planted. That's 26 points ahead of average and the fastest pace on USDA records. Mississippi at 55%, running 32 points ahead of the usual pace, which is also a record. And over in Tennessee, soybean planting has already hit the halfway mark, which is a record pace and a full 41 points ahead of where it typically is this time of year. The dry weather allowing many southern farmers to get into the field uninterrupted, but in some cases it's now too dry to continue. We've been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we've been so dry. Can't just get the planter in the ground, but it's the first top, the first planting window. We waited till things warmed up. You know, I'm very diligent and patient about that. And all that corn has come up awesome. We did turn on the pivots Monday just to kind of maybe help get them to come up uniformly. And then, like I said, we stopped planting last Thursday and there's no rain real measurable rain in the forecast right now. So I don't know when we're going to get started back. Hula says that this is uncharted territory for him. Many farmers in this area say that this is the driest start to planting that they've ever seen, and this shows it from Virginia to Georgia. The percent of topsoil considered short to very short ranges from 83 to 97%, making it one of the driest pockets in the country. The Plant Your Independence Tour is brought to you by Wiffles Hybrids. At Wiffles, we've made a choice, a choice to remain independent, a choice to remain farm family owned, a choice to stay American. So when it's time to make your choice, make a statement. Plant your independence. Plant Wiffles. Well, meanwhile, in the Midwest, rain and severe weather is creating a mixed bag for the farmers on this week's Plant Your Independence Tour. In northwest Iowa, New Will farmer Matt McCarthy started planting corn April 14th, and as of this Wednesday, he's already around 70% done. McCarthy says that soil conditions are perfect and soil temps are in the 50s. If his farm misses the rain forecast for this area on Thursday, he could be done with corn by the end of the week. However, many farmers in his area are just getting started. Well, near Mankato, Minnesota, Chris Schenck isn't planting yet. He made some fertilizer application this week, But he's waiting to start as two storm systems are forecast to drop two and a half inches of rain Thursday through the weekend. You know, we're pretty dry here, so this water's been disappearing pretty fast. It would probably be another week to 10 days, which is going to start putting us, you know, into the first part of May there. Well, he says that many farmers in the area have been rolling hard trying to beat the rain. There is little planting progress around Cessero, Iowa for Derek Burnickel after rain last week. Now fields are just starting to dry and they've only done limited field work. After weekend lows in the 20s and a roller coaster of temperatures, farmers are gearing up for planters to roll on soybeans as highs move back into the 70s and the 80s. And planting is underway in southwest Iowa. Pat Sheldon tells us about 350 acres of corn are already on lighter ground. And farmers are racing to finish before the next rain, with some switching to beans afterward as heavier soils dry. And in Marowa, Illinois, most farmers have planters parked. Cody White says Friday brought storms and a number of tornadoes by their farms. Now farmers are waiting for fields to dry out and they're keeping an eye on another chance of rain and a cool front at the end of this week. Well this week we stopped in Carthage, Illinois, where a setback could be a setup for a successful season. Still warming up and just starting off. Because it's been a slow planting season so far for Chris and Dave Harrell. Little to nothing going on at all this week. I know we've had roughly five and half inches in the last two weeks. Add to that about two inches of rain and storms over the weekend, and this father son duo is running equipment test with just one beat field planted. Yeah, pretend planting. Yeah. Breaking the neck off It a slow start but Dave 40 years of experience say that they still on track for a successful season Weather wise we could got stuff in on time but this year it's pushing us back a little, but still I mean, we've got ample time, you know, it's still middle of April, so we'll be fine and while the heralds think that this rain could be a blessing in disguise for big yields later in the year, input costs will likely be the biggest breakdown to their bottom line. The diesel prices I think is number I mean, the price of corn's gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it's not gone up enough. Triple A reports that the average diesel price in Illinois this week is about $1.80 more than it was last year. Dave's planning to strip till and cut back on cost. We lucked out and had some contracted to kind of cover our spring needs, so we'll be OK through the spring. And fertilizer isn't a top concern for the Harrells. They applied their last fall, but it's costs like these that make this team thankful that they also plant a non GMO variety. It's a little extra work on segregation and storage and clean out. You just kind of have to have a little checklist and get through it all. But yeah, the premiums are nice, especially in a tougher environment like this. A tougher environment, but still the same routine every year. Pouring seed and rolling with the punches. Because although today the planting may be pretend, the weather costs and the bottom line aren't. Well, Chris says this week fields are starting to dry out, but the wind is preventing spraying. He thinks field work will start back up on Wednesday. Well, you can catch up with all of our farmers on the Plant Your Independence Tour at agweb.com. Well, USDA is taking a closer look at how it collects and shares the data that farmers and markets depend on every day. Well, that's happening Wednesday as officials and data users gather in Kansas City. The data users meeting is held every year, but with growing scrutiny over the accuracy of USDA reporting, this year's gathering carries added importance. The meeting will review the department's reporting systems, which includes everything from how data is collected and shared to how much confidence users can place in the numbers. In an interview with Farm Journal, Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says that USDA is focused on improving transparency and strengthening trust in its data. That's why earlier this month, the agency opened a public comment period asking farmers, trade groups, and data users where improvements are needed. Well, Baden says that there's no quick fix, but he emphasizes the goal as continuous improvement and greater confidence in USDA reporting. USDA data needs to be the gold standard, and we need to be brave enough to take feedback. Everyone can always improve. And so what we have done is we had a public comment process, which just closed on the 9th of April, where we asked everyone who has any interaction with our data, tell us what you think. Are there ways that we can collect data better? Are there ways that we can report data better? And now having received those comments, we're having the public meeting that you mentioned on the 22nd of April in Kansas City. Well, we also asked Vaden whether USDA's ongoing reorganization is affecting the accuracy of its reports. He told us no. Adding that WASDE analysts remain focused on their work and unaffected by the changes, calling it a matter that does not impact day-to-day operations. Well, the Trump administration is taking aim at high food prices. As new reports suggest that the Department of Justice is looking into both beef and eggs. Bloomberg says that the DOJ is investigating how cattle prices are set at auction and how they purchase cattle from ranchers. It reports there's a separate probe into the conduct of the quote, big four meatpackers. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the DOJ is prepping an antitrust lawsuit against some of the country's largest egg producers. This stems from allegations they coordinated pricing through a benchmarking service. Officials are raising alarms after a confirmed New World screwworm case was just found 60 miles from the U.S. border. The parasite detected in a young calf in Nuevo Leon, and it marks the northernmost active case in Mexico. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating that the threat of New World screwworm is creeping dangerously close to our border, calling it a sign that can't be ignored. This case falls within an active sterile fly dispersal zone, which is part of an ongoing effort to control the screwworm population. Well, it was a bit of a turnaround on Tuesday for the major grains. Soybeans back on the rise and climbing ever closer to that $12 mark. We'll talk about it next. And check out this video from a cab in Oklahoma. Ryan Sorrell says that he's busy planting sunflowers. It's a busy, dark, and dusty video for our picture of the day. Ag Day is brought to you by Pioneer. One to one since 1926. See how it all started at pioneer.com slash 100. Ag Day is brought to you by FBN Finance. Experienced loan advisors putting farmers first with farmland rates as low as 4 Well new tractor sales remain sluggish to start this year The Association of Equipment Manufacturers releasing its monthly flash report and it shows that as of March, total tractor sales are down 9 percent. Smaller units and 100-plus horsepower tractors, both 9 percent lower, while larger four-wheel drive machines are off 15 percent. Meanwhile, combine sales so far in 2026 are off 4 percent compared to the same time in 2025. Well, weather and planting helping lift grains on Tuesday. But is it enough to keep those prices rising? Michelle Rook asks the question in Markets Now. Corn and soybeans higher on Tuesday with cattle setting back once again. Mike Miner with Professional Ag Marketing is in with analysis. Okay, Mike, soybeans kind of led the rally. Actually, soybean oil led the rally on Tuesday, didn't it? It did. Soybean oil put in three-year highs here for the move. Really nice move higher, kind of led by the crude oil market as well. And soybeans take along right with it, up 10 cents most of the day through most of the contracts. So really nice movement out of the soybean market, out of soybean oil. And I think corn just kind of followed along with that. So Mike, we got up into some chart resistance in both soybeans, old crop corn and soybeans. What's it going to take to get through those levels, do you think? Well, a continuation of it, you know, the crude oil market moving higher is going to help just with the idea that a ceasefire won't get extended. So obviously, if crude oil keeps moving higher, any big moves, corn and soybeans are going to want to follow along with that as well. We've seen some bull spreading up front on corn specifically. So cash fundamentals are improving. Basis is strengthening a little bit in the Western Corn Belt, especially for corn and soybeans. So some of those are feeding us as well. We're getting up to some old level highs, some key resistance points. But the obvious answer would be any delays in planning, any weather issues. Anything along those lines is going to help us continue to move higher because demand's been doing its job. Corn flash sales again. Ethanol grind's been good. Soy crush has been good. So really at this point, we're talking any outside market fundamentals to move us and then obviously any long-term supply changes. And cattle down again on Tuesday. Is this part of an overall healthy correction in a bull market? Well, it started last Friday, the end of last week when we saw some sell-off. mainly regarding Brooke Rollins and the border situation. Now, she is visiting Arizona at the end of this week. Supposedly, again, maybe we could. It seems like this sell-off started with that news. And then we've seen just a technical pullback, a little risk-off repositioning ahead of that announcement. Because when I look at it, Kill's been pulling back pretty aggressively, but at least we've seen the meat market move higher in response to that, which I think is always a very good sign, Michelle, especially this time of the year. I want to see a beginning of May. I want to see some pretty strong cutout movement. All right. Thanks so much, Mike Finder with Professional Ag Marketing and Markets Now. The communities dealing with the cleanup won't argue. According to the latest data from NOAA, Illinois currently leads the nation in severe weather this spring. AccuWeather putting together those numbers, which shows that Illinois, as of April 19th, has had 80 reports of tornadoes this year. That's double the next closest state of Mississippi. Illinois is also at the top of the list for hail and wind. The state reporting 245 automated wind gust records this year already. And it's still early in the severe weather season. In terms of severe weather potential, we're not looking at major energy coming through. But where it comes through, there is a chance of some strong thunderstorms kicking up. You can see the jet stream here Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday starting to move through. Now, overall, we're expecting again Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the system to move in. As it does, we got, again, the chance of some thunderstorms. You see how these two lines go like this? So your best chance of strong, if not severe thunderstorms are going to be back up in this area for Thursday and into Friday. The focus for severe weather and heavy downpours is going to switch. Last week, it was up towards the Midwest, especially into Wisconsin and Illinois and Indiana, to back down here to the south. pockets of severe weather will be possible Wednesday, Thursday and into Friday. A cool front or a pocket of cool air is going to try to come down from the north to the south. This is going to spark some more thunderstorms right along kind of that gradient between the warm and the cold. But I'm not expecting as cold of an outbreak of air as what we had this past weekend. So we look at the severe storm potential again for today. The Midwest down to the east is clear. You got that little sliver right there with a few storms in the green working to the east. This is coming up for tomorrow. That's that area that we were talking about, that stretch from north to south that has the best ingredients for some severe weather, Wisconsin and also into Missouri. The precipitation outlook is positive. We need some rain back down here to the south and to the southeast. Things starting to dry out back up here to the north but this is kind of a typical wet pattern with a ridge trying to develop in and across portions of the United States bringing ample rainfall as well The time on this this is April 26th through the 30th with a precipitation outlook The temperature outlook stays warm with that pocket of cooler air back up towards the Dakotas. Elk River, Minnesota, high of 86 degrees. Moose River, Maine, high of 47, low of 33 degrees. Bear Wallow, Tennessee, sunny, high of 83, low of 53 degrees. Ag Day is brought to you by Nutrient Ag Solutions. The right partner works with you to find solutions that click. One partner, all in. Visit NutrientAgSolutions.com slash decisions. Ag Day is brought to you by Veltima Fungicide from BASF. Make this your best season yet. For pork producers, one of the biggest challenges, meeting California's Proposition 12 guidelines. Well, now new retail and USDA data is shedding light on the true cost of the rule. After two years of full implementation, researchers with North Dakota State found that prices for covered products in California are 20 percent higher than the rest of the country. For instance, pork loins are up a third, ribs up 22 percent, and bacon 16 percent higher. The study says California consumers have paid $350 million more for pork products and that they've seen consumption decline significantly. The House version of the farm bill includes a Prop 12 fix, which would not allow one state to determine farming practices for producers outside of its own borders. Lean hog futures are back in triple digits, at least for the summer month contracts. That has the industry looking for profits. According to the latest estimates from Sterling Marketing, Farrow to Finish margins average between $55 and $56 per head, which is $2 higher than last week. The market generally falls into the May timeframe for futures, then has a sharp spike higher into expiration for those summer contracts. I think that will happen. So from our standpoint, keep in mind that March hogs and pigs report also trimmed numbers that we'll be hitting in the summer. So overall, we still have a dead zone waiting for cash hogs and pork to see some procurement into late spring and strong early summer. I do think it will happen. Margins for packers were about $3 per head last week and are averaging about $13 for the year. Sterling puts the break even for finished marketing hogs at roughly $66 per hundredweight. Well, people don't live forever, but stories often do. Up next, a troubling tale about a woman discovered in a coffin along the riverbank of Mississippi. How the farmer found the lady in red. That's next. Ag Day is brought to you by Coke Agronomic Services. Proven, powerful performance. Unlock organic phosphorus already in the soil with phosphorus nutrient enhancer from Coke Agronomic Services. Well, dig around a century old farm and you're likely to find something from the past. Farm Journal's writer, Chris Bennett, not only digs up a good story, but this week he tells a tale of a mystery from the banks of the Yazoo River in Mississippi. Well, this happened back in 1969 at the Egypt plantation along the banks of the river. Jim Thomas tells the story of his uncle digging up a septic system near the old house when he hit something metallic. Now, upon further investigation, it turned out to be a metal coffin filled with alcohol. And inside, a young woman in a red dress and black buckle shoes. She's in this coffin. She's in a red dress. She has on white gloves. Her arms, her hands are crossed across her breasts. She has on black buckle shoes. She's got dark hair. It was described as auburn black brown at different points. and she's perfectly preserved as in she looks as if she's just been buried and from there right from right there it triggers a who is she who is she on this property well chris says by dating this coffin they can put her burial in the mid-1800s now this woman was dug up and moved about 20 miles away to another graveyard but her true identity still remains a mystery you can read more about this wild tale from Chris Bennett over at agweb.com or even better you can listen to him tell the story on the most recent unscripted podcast with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths and man I do love a good mystery well that is all the time we have for today thanks for watching and from all of us here at Ag Day I'm Haley Bicklehop and I hope you have a great day you