Live from Miami Beach at the iConnections Global Alts Conference, this is Fast Money. We are back after our Olympics break. I'm here with Dan Nathan and Guy Dami. We're sorry to all the curling fans who missed the sport, but we are back. Here's what's on tap this hour. Market shockwaves from tariffs to credit concerns. There's no shortage of risk weighing on investors' minds today. We'll break down the details and how it impacts your money. and financial fallout. The private credit stocks leaving the market losses today as the ripple effects from Blue Owl weigh on investors. We'll talk with one top investor about what's next for the sector. Plus, Bitcoin breaks back below the 65,000 mark. Novo's latest trial results sends the stock to nearly five-year lows. And we're tracking the fallout from the storm, blanketing the Northeast, the impact on airlines, energy, and much more. But let's get right to it because we've got a lot to talk about. Interesting markets. We haven't talked to you guys in a couple weeks. Did you hold on before? Did you miss us? Be honest. I did. Are you sure? Yes. Two weeks is a long time. It is a long time. You have a lot to say. Well, I always do. I'll say this. You know, the software part of this equation started whilst we were still on television. Yes. What's happened over the last two weeks is all of a sudden credit is first and foremost on everybody's mind. Blue Owl will talk about crypto does not bounce at all. Now it's sort of making its way into the banking sector. And you have to ask yourself. So the pillars of the market just being knocked out one by one. Yeah, you know, this is a theme we've been talking about, at least on this show for a while. It's like when you think about all the enthusiasm about this AI trade, and it's been going on for a while and it's broadened out, right, over the last couple of years or so. But some of the early leaders have stalled out, right? And what's going on on the disruption front, whether it's like the software thing, it's been my view that all of a sudden we have something that looks a little bit like the 2000 period when we had the dot-com thing implode and then into the financial crisis because a lot of this build-out has been financialized in a way that it was not in the late 90s. And it seems to be all converging at once. And the thing that struck me is that the S&P is down less than 2% from its all-time highs. There's a level of complacency about this. But if you look under the hood, it's actually one of the sorts of periods that I can't remember where we've seen so much devastation in two or three really important parts of the market. I mean, you mentioned this in terms of sort of hitting the sectors. I mean, IGV, the software ETF, for a while it was able to hold around 80, you know, maybe 79. But today it broke. We're back at levels not seen since 2023. And now hitting the financials just seems like we're going back at it. Yeah. And we're hitting even harder. We're going deeper. You know, Microsoft, obviously, and the crack staff who is back in EC. And I miss them all, by the way. And by the way, to get to EC, that was a feat. So kudos to them. Kudos to them. But if they can put up like a four or five year chart in Microsoft, you'll see we're at levels. Basically, we were three years ago. Microsoft over the last three years, despite the fact that made an all time high in the fall last year, is right back where it was three years ago against a broader market that's unwell. So you mentioned IGV, but now you're seeing it obviously in the software name Salesforce, Adobe. It's not just one name. So that is manifesting itself, I think, now across a swath of sectors, financials being one of them. there was this love affair with financials, but now it's sort of self-first asked questions later. So that made its way from the private equity name. Now it's making its way into the banks. So do the markets overall crack? I mean, we had been able to maintain at the index level, you know, very close to record highs, but we knock out financials. We knock on the door of industrials. I mean, all these different sectors. Well, it's a long way from the crack to the break, right? And we're seeing that right now as far as there's cracks all over the market. But I think it's important to note, and we've been talking about this, people have very short memories. In the highs in 21 to the lows in 22, stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla and Meta, and they lost, Netflix too, 77% on average of their value. I mean, think about it. So if we're looking at some of the poster children of this move over the last couple of years, Palantir is a great example. This stock has made no sense on a valuation basis, on a revenue. Yeah, they're growing revenues 50% a year off a very low base, this knocks down 40% from its recent highs. And Guy, I know you can do a little math, right? I do math well, Ash. You know what I did on the plane? Math? Math. No. I'm sorry. Do we have time here? Sandy's probably shaking his head. We haven't come all the way down to my end. I didn't even get to my math problem either. And I do math problems from my head anyway. So what I was saying is when Palantir was a $350 billion market cap company trading at 100 times sales or whatever the heck it was, when it comes 40% off the highs, is it's erasing tons of market cap. And on the way up, when it's up 1,000%, that sort of thing, it's gaining that. But if you are the last person to buy it, and you are the person who bought it over the last six months or so, you're losing money. And there's a lot of market cap that's been clipped off the highs. Right. So you have AI disruption, and then you have tariff uncertainty. What happens here with the 15% tariffs now? Does anybody get a refund? I mean, that's something I think we learned how to deal with in April of last year. But obviously, the story continues to sort of manifest itself. But I think out of all the things we're talking about, listen, that's important. But I think it's less important than the other three or four. But I'll also say this. Long before the tariffs in the Supreme Court, the VIX was telling a story. And, you know, we've been gone for a couple of weeks. But we wake up today. You look, the VIX traded up to 22 today. And I get it. It was a bad market day. But it was not a extraordinary market day. And the fact that the VIX is north of 21, I think it's been telling a story. Put on top of that, the fact that crypto can't get out of its own way. I mean, as we're probably sitting here, Bitcoin is 65,000 without any bounce since we left for the Olympics. And I think that is telling a story as well. Well, we are here. But back at the Nasdaq market site, we will find CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli and my co-anchor on closing bell overtime. Mike, thanks for holding down the forward over there. What have you been looking at today? Well, it's just to play off of all you've been talking about. The S&P 500 six-month chart, or at least for the last four months, is a picture of kind of indecision. You could call it tenacity not buckling in the face of all of those kind of weakness in some bellwether areas. The 50-day moving average is now almost dead flat like over the last week or so. So that basically tells you you have these opposing currents holding the index still. I've been saying for weeks I think the market's lucky not to have had a broader pullback. On the other hand, some like 60 percent of all S&P stocks have been outperforming the index on the way up, at least coming into this week. One area I think you have to keep on a short leash is consumer cyclicals. Everyone's talking about tax refunds and how the consumer is very strong. And, you know, travel stocks were even doing great for a while. Well, here you have this is the equal weighted discretionary versus staples. And obviously, staples just roaring relative to to the discretionary. And even on a one year basis, now staples have kind of nosed ahead. So that tells you a defensive story. And then finally, Apple was strong today because guess why? It's the defensive name in mega cap. Apple, Microsoft 10 year. OK, for as much as they're different businesses, they've actually traveled together. You don't see divergences like this that last very long. Typically, these are the OG, you know, kind of PC stocks from the 70s. That's when they were founded. And here you have Apple kind of plumbing new highs. And you guys were talking about the weakness in Microsoft. I don't know how this resolves, but it is fascinating that you've kind of winnowed down just to a couple of stocks that seem safe to own. Best case scenario, Mel, this is some kind of a stealth correction. We're kind of bleeding some of the excesses out of the market. and maybe it sets the scene for a firmer base to have been built. We'll see. All right. Mike, thank you. See you tomorrow. Mike Santoli. How do you think it resolves? Well, here's the thing. It's going to be the economy that it resolves it one way or another, right? So if you think about the labor market, it's been kind of weak. And I know there's a lot of enthusiasm about this tax return season. But when you counterbalance what's going on with the higher health care premiums, I'm not sure from a consumer standpoint, you're going to get that sort of tailwind. And then also, when you think about this, the lack of certainty now about the tariff situation, why are these companies coming out and saying, hey, I want to get some of that $175 billion back? Well, it's clear now that is considered a tax tariffs, right? Let's be honest. If this is what a lot of the companies that had to bear this on the import front, and make no mistake about it also, they passed through a lot of this through to consumers. So the SCOTUS decision on Friday, you would think that'd be somewhat of a relief, But it really isn't in many ways. And we're right back to that uncertainty. And Guy just mentioned this before. Well, we learned to deal with that a little bit last spring. But here we are again year over year. And I think it really is going to be a bit of a headwind here. The uncertainty here is, you know, the average the average tariff rate before this was 16 percent or so. When you put on 15 percent again for the next 150 days only, it goes to 13 percent. It's not that much of a difference. There's still the uncertainty about what happens after 150 days. We saw a lot of that uncertainty play out in the retail sector specifically. Mike was highlighting consumer discretionary stocks. Walmart, though, still continues to chug along. Good for Walmart. And I think we've done a decent job. I mean, if Tim Seymour were here, Karen were here, we'd be talking about Walmart and the fact that, yeah, valuation is expensive. It's been expensive for a while. But, you know, you look over the last six or seven earnings report, and they're one of the biggest companies and one of the best at sort of integrating AI and having it fall down to the bottom line and for them in the form of margins. But, you know, in terms of tariffs, you know, I get it. I get that's the headline. But what should be the headline, I think, is some of the delinquency rates continue to sort of creep up in an unhealthy fashion. You know, people want to talk about the health of the consumer, which I totally get. But I'm not sure the health of the consumer is as robust as people want to make it out to be. And I think that's going to manifest it into a lot of these retail names that we just don't talk about. Yeah. And the other thing is we know that, you know, consumers are two thirds of GDP. Right. Well, we've heard a lot about what the AI infrastructure build has contributed to GDP growth over the last year or two. Look at a company like IBM. This was a darling just about a month ago. OK, look at the performance of this stock in what, three weeks. The stock is down 30 percent. It looks like it just fell out of bed. Just today, 13 percent on the latest cloud release. And so if all like if investors are like running for the doors and some of the best performers right here, you know, you have to say to yourself, What sort of wealth effect are we going to have or a negative wealth effect if you start to see some of the biggest darlings that consumer retail investors are just piled into because they got rewarded to do it again and again? Can I be, so Dan usually says he's happy Dan and can I be silver linings Dan? Can I be silver linings guy? Sure. Because why not? We're down here. I mean, it's cold here. It really is. It freaking 50 degrees I got a blanket Anyway that not what I want to talk about You know the other side of that argument is it was September 10th I think if memory serves it Oracle made that announcement and the stock went up 30 something percent in a straight line. And everybody was championing the fact that, OK, AI, look at the tailwind it's going to create for software. So that was the tailwind side of the equation. Now we're in the headwind side of the equation. So my point is, it was a clear overshoot in the fall of last year. At what point is it a clear undershoot? Or have people realized that, wait a second, maybe AI is becoming a software killer and it's making its way sector by sector? Right. Amintai, we were watching shares at J.P. Morgan after hours. The firm giving a company update after the close. The shares were down over 4% during the regular session. CNBC's Leslie Picker has got all the details. Leslie. Hey, Mel. Yeah, J.P. Morgan holding its shareholder update right now. And a key important metric to note, the firm did boost its 2026 expectations for firm-wide net interest income to $104.5 billion from $103 billion. That's that profitability metric for loan making. JP Morgan also giving some color to its expense guidance, including plans to spend $19.8 billion on technology this year. That's up nearly $2 billion year over year. CFO Jeremy Barnum going through a Q&A right now, concluding his prepared remarks where he addressed this broader consternation over AI disintermediation in software and what he thinks that means for J.P. Morgan. He said the firm's, quote, exposure to the more vulnerable players in the broader software industry is quite small. And beyond that, the potential impact of AI disruption is obviously not limited to the software industry. So they continue to look across their whole portfolio to identify emerging risks. And of course, one of the reasons for their large excess capital position, he says, is to protect them from those types of potential disruptions. Barnum also speaking about the consumer and the K-shaped economy. And he said that from their lens on credit performance, they're noting a difference between high and low income segments. but it's not outside the pre-pandemic range and that lower income consumers, quote, remain resilient. They're expecting this year's card net charge off rate to be 3.4 percent, which has been pretty stable. We're expecting to hear from Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon in about an hour's time. All right, Leslie, thank you, Leslie Picker. Meanwhile, private credit fears growing on Wall Street. chairs of Blue Owl dropping another 3% today, now down 15% just since Thursday. The company under pressure amid a liquidity crunch and its software exposure. Paul Horvath runs alternative asset manager Orchard Global. He joins us here in Miami Beach. Paul, great to have you with us. Great to be here. I would say toasty South Beach. Not very toasty. Opposite of toasty. It's chilly. What kind of chill has Blue Owl sent through the industry, even when it comes to investors' appetite for private credit? Well, Melissa, it's a good question. Private credit is a large, growing, and important asset class. There's good reasons why it's grown to over $2 trillion in the last couple years. But like with all large and growing asset classes and important asset classes, private credit is not a monolith. You know, there's good private credit and there's challenged private credit. And, well, at Orchard Global, what we're always trying to do is steer our investors towards the good and away from the stressed. I'm sure when Blue Owl took on, you know, their software portfolio, they thought that that was good private credit and a lot of other firms as well. And so I'm wondering what you think of the quick turn in terms of sentiment. You know, the view that software was once that cash cow, you know, recurring revenue kind of business, steady stream, perfect for private credit. And now it is the bane of private credit. Well, yeah, I mean, look, I won't comment on other people's decisions, but that's one of the reasons. When you talk about good versus not as good, we like to do at Archer Global asset heavy rather than asset light. So if that unexpected happens, because it always happens, you know, we can sell those machines or sell those assets and get our money back as lenders. You know, we've always kind of strayed away from some of the more asset light, even if the cash flow is great or, you know, it's all the rage. We've always kind of, because remember, in private credit or in credit, you don't need to pick the winners. You need to avoid the losers. Paul, I'm not going to ask you to play stock market with individual names, but, you know, Jamie Dimon in the fall talked about more than one cockroach, and I read a lot over the last week or so about, you know, Blue Owl and the correlations people are making from 08 and 09, and I'm not suggesting we're on the precipice of that, but people are quick to dismiss things when everybody wants to be optimistic and then fast to say, I wish I'd told me more about these types of things. Where are we, you think, in this whole cycle? Well, first of all, I used to work for Jamie, And I learned a long time ago that you don't want to you have a better have a pretty good reason to disagree with them. You know, but there are differences between private credit and good versus not as good and where we are, say, you know, 08, 09. Back then, there was a lot of systemic risk, you know, banks lending to banks, lending to funds who leveraged by all kinds of three letter things. is that it's important to just give context to the whole private credit conversation. Yes, as I said earlier, private credit has grown over the last 10 years from $500 billion to $2 trillion. And whenever something grows that quickly, you've got to take a close look at it. But let's remember that one of the things that private credit is doing or trying to do is replace banks because they can't lend as much because they have capital constraints. Well, you know, the top banks like Jamie's, the top 30 banks in the world control $100 trillion in assets. All the banks in the world control $200 trillion in assets. And we're talking about $2 trillion. So, you know, they're going to be winners and losers in private credit. But the systemic risk that would worry the regulators in 2008 and 2009, I just don't see a systemic risk. Now, speaking more broadly about some of the names that you've spoken, usually you're hearing me asking for less regulation. And if your investors are, like our investors, institutional, sophisticated corporate pensions, state pensions, sovereign wealth with big teams who can analyze and understand the liquidity or private credit is great, but it's not very liquid. it. The lack of liquidity, well, that's fine. Now, many are arguing that you should democratize that and bring it to high net worth in retail. And I understand the case for that. But when you do that, you want to have guardrails. So that's the one area where you'll hear me saying, you know what, to make sure that we, that those widows and orphans and high net worth are getting the same thing that the institutional investors are. That's where I would think the SEC and FINRA would want to make sure that they're really protecting the investors. Yeah, so Paul, is there an underlying bid for these assets? So for instance, on Friday afternoon, Boaz Weinstein from Saba Capital made a bid with another private equity firm for some of the Blue Isle semi-liquid assets. And it was well below NAV at 70 cents on the dollar. Does that give some folks like yourself a little confidence that there are buyers of these assets, or is that just way too low of a price? I'm not involved directly in that transaction, so I don't know whether it's the right price or not. But again, in credit, you're looking at cash flows, you're looking at assets, you're looking at underlying. It's kind of different than equities where you're hoping that A, B, and C happens, or venture where you're dreaming that X, Y, and Z happens. Certainly the way that we look at credit and private credit, and we do stay away from those asset-light industries, but we say, okay, what are the cash flows? Are they going to continue? If it all falls down, are there some assets we can sell? And I'm sure that, you know, Bo is a smart guy. I'm sure that he would have done that math. And, you know, he's in this to make money. So if he's bidding it, he's probably bidding it 10 to 20 points lower than fair value. You know, I would if I were him. But again, headlines are made and people should look into this. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. You know, one of the areas where we see great opportunity is in Europe. And Europe, as lenders, now we're not talking about equity, but I was just actually at the Munich Security Conference last week. And what you see is Europe is a very different place than the U.S. And we see great opportunities to do the type of stuff we do with those defensive companies, asset-heavy companies. and we can get one, two, in some cases 300 basis points more return for a given amount of risk. So that's where we're focusing, and we'll let Boas and the others do the bottom fishing here in the U.S. Paul, great to see you. Thank you for stopping by. Thanks so much. Paul Horvath of Orchard. Interesting that he's calling for regulations. Interesting that you hear the discrepancy between valuations here in Europe, because that also goes into equities. Listen, you know, the asset heavy thing, and I'm not going to question Paul, but here's a great example, CoreWeave. You know, Blue Owl couldn't unload, you know, like trillions or excuse me, billions of dollars to get a data center built. Now, CoreWeave is telling us that the Lancaster PA data center is funded, but there were no bids for that debt. And when you think about it, if you do have a slowdown in demand and CoreWeave can't build out some of those data centers, then they're going to lose some of that backlog. And so to me, I think there's a lot of reverberations, especially if we see a slowdown in this AI build. Oh, I'm sorry, Melms. I was going to thought we were going to break here. What I was going to say, first of all, Paul's a great guest. He should come on again. I'll say this. You know, he mentioned like banks lending to banks in 08 and 09, and it's different this time. He's right. But look at what we have this. Now you have the circular nature of these all these different AI companies NVIDIA being in the middle of it you know open AI It all right there So it not the same but in a lot of ways it eerily similar All right, coming up, we've got much more from the iConnections Global Alts Conference here in Miami Beach, including a roadmap for investing in Japan, where our next guest sees the most opportunity in the land of the rising sun. Plus, millions of Americans slammed by the blizzard hitting the Northeast. How much longer will we feel the impact and what it means for the travel trade. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money Live from Miami Beach is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Millions of Americans hit by heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across the East Coast from New York City to Massachusetts. Cities are seeing as much as two feet of snow for the latest on the winter storm. Let's bring in AccuWeather's Anna Azalian. Hi, Anna. Hi, Melissa. Yeah, this has been a blockbuster storm. I mean, take a look at our top snow totals by state just in the last 24 hours here. The top one, three feet of snow. That alone causes a lot of problems. And all of these reports, more than 20 inches, the bottom one, Langhorne, Pennsylvania there. I want to focus on some of the bigger cities because, no, they're not our top snow reports. But New York City, specifically at Central Park, 19 inches of snow. Philly got 14. Boston with 26. D.C.'s the outlier here. But a lot of the East Coast is going to be digging out from this for a couple of days. But the wind, it made things even worse. That's how we got to that blizzard criteria. All of these top wind reports, more than 70 miles an hour. For some of us, the recovery starts now. For others, we're still dealing with the snow. Take a look at radar, especially New England. That's where it's still coming down. And I want to zoom in here for you because we do have some areas still getting some heavier snowfall. That's where you see the darker blue shading south of Boston, for example, on radar here. Earlier today, some places got three, four, five inches of snow per hour. Yeah, that's the kind of situation plows just can't keep up with. Now, even in New England, this is going to be winding down over the next couple of hours, about 8, 9 p.m. That's when we're going to start to finally see the snowflakes calm down. But the impacts, especially when it comes to the airports, they're going to last even into tomorrow. We're forecasting 2,500 flight cancellations. That's how after yesterday and today combined, we saw more than 8,000 flights canceled, Melissa. All right, Anna, thank you. Ana Azalean. And, of course, the impact could be seen in the airline stocks today really taking a hit. And then a lot of the travel and leisure names in terms of the hotels also got a hit because of what is going on in Mexico in terms of, you know, tourists being ordered to shelter in place in their hotels there because drug lords are being taken out on the streets. I mean, that's frightening stuff. It's frightening. So weather comes and goes. So we can deal with weather. Something like that, though, people get scared. And you've got to believe that's going to have a lasting effect in terms of travel, not only to Mexico, but potentially other places where people say, you know what, I'm a little scared. Now, say people right now in terms of the airline self first ask questions later. There's going to be levels, though, where these get interesting. I'm looking at Delta, this 65, 66 level. That was a prior all time high. If you want to go back and look to I think it was January of 2025. So this is the level where it should hold. But you start to break down here. The momentum is going to start to take over like you've seen in some of these other sectors, software specifically. Yeah, if you broaden it out. I mean, look at Expedia, for instance. This is a stock, again, I know that it sounds like a broken record here, that was trading an all-time high. This was just a month ago, right? And it's down about 40%. So you have AI disruption. Then you have all this stuff that we're talking about, which makes you really kind of think about how fragile some of these stories are. And we're in a market right now. A whole business model. That's right. And again, you know, like it's not an indictment of these business models. Expedia has been around for 25 years. It's an amazing company. They pioneered something. But now, like when you're on the dawn of a new technology, I mean, that's the thing, that it doesn't take much to get these things going the opposite way. Or investors just really kind of shooting first, asking questions later. Coming up, opportunities abroad, the playbook for investing in Japan. As the Nikkei hovers around records, where our next guest says the impact of the country's snap election will be enormous. Fast Money is back from Miami Beach straight ahead. Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks selling off to start the week with investors digesting the latest tariff headlines from over the weekend. The Dow dropping more than 800 points. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling more than a percent. Shares of Domino's Pizza jumping 4 percent after reporting results this morning. the company beating U.S. sales estimates thanks to higher order volumes and deals that impacted that helped attract budget-conscious consumers. Shares of Google Meantime lower today despite an upgrade from Wells Fargo. Analysts putting an overweight rating on the stock and upping the price target to 387 from 354, citing leadership and customer data distribution and compute capacity. And some after-hours action to tell you about Diamondback Energy lower after missing earnings estimates. Hims and hers lower after coming up short on revenue but posting better than expected full-year sales guidance. And Whirlpool moving lower right now. The company is launching a public offering in an effort to deleverage and make strategic investments. The company says it expects proceeds from the offering to be $800 million. The move comes after Whirlpool reported that sales fell in the fourth quarter due to decreased volumes in the America. Shares down about 6% right now. Yeah, this is the wrong time. Well, I'll go to Google, but quickly about Whirlpool, this is not the ideal time to be doing a secondary. But OK, be that as it may. Google's the one I want to talk about. And I get the upgrade. You have to believe that you're going to get continued multiple expansion at this point. Because, and we talked about this last year, I think, the fact that you put a 30 multiple on the $11.50 or so, and you could see the stock being, you know, $335, $340. That's where it got to. The problem now is the valuation cushion you had six months ago, you don't have now. So six to nine months out, you're saying you want to play that game. I get it. But in the environment we're in right now, it feels tenuous at best in Google. Coming up, the turning point for Japanese investing. What our next guest sees in store for the country after its snap elections and the impact it'll have on equities overseas. Plus, the fallout from the latest crypto downturn as Bitcoin drops below 65K. Why the slide isn't stopping. Our next guest's bull thesis. More on all of that when Fast Money Live from Miami Beach returns back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Japanese markets were closed today, but the Nikkei within 2% of records hit earlier this month, following Prime Minister Sunei Takeichi's snap election win. While the decisive victory is expected to boost Takeichi's domestic growth agenda, Japan's economic situation could be complicated by President Trump's latest tariff hike. For more on what is next for Japanese investors and Japan investors, I should say, let's bring in Yoshiko Yamaguchi, founder of Soya Japan Research and Consulting. Yoshiko, great to have you with us. What do you think the tariff uncertainty will do to Japan? First of all, thank you for having me here. It's so honored to be here. Well, you mentioned about complicated relationship. Actually, the Japan-U.S. interest align right now. So it's probably simpler than you think. In terms of the implication for the snap election, it's going to be enormous. So the decisive ring of the Sanai-Takaichi paved the way for her to reshape the Japanese economic and social structure, which could conflict with existing structure. Stakeholder is the elderly people, large-cap company, and also the bureaucrat elite. But she probably could do it with a massive win. Well, economics from point, she already talked about 17th growth sector. And then people, some people talking about 17th focus is too money. But you have to think about this way. She wants to bring back some key areas back to Japan, such as strategic security, defense area, and make it made in Japan possible in the future. Secondly, she wants to make sure people improve their affordability. Affordability is a very big issue in Japan, and that's Kyuha's focus. She's still trying to stop, suspend two years' consumption tax on the food, and following that, she wants to introduce a new tax-defundable credit system. So that probably could move, change their consumer confidence before Affordability going. I'm glad you're here. This is interesting. So we've been talking about the Japanese bond market has seen historic volatility. I mean, the moves in a daily basis, 10, 15 basis points, On the flip side, the currency has been weakening. 154, sort of no man's land. But as we approach 160, something's got to give. Like, in my opinion, you can't have Japanese yields continue to go higher and a currency to continue to weaken. Where is the line in the sand in dollar-yen, in your opinion? 160 seems to be it. Great point. That's actually addressed by the U.S. government back in January, the end of January. If you remember, January 29th, U.S. Treasury came in. We can't take the volatility. And then the Takaichi government, they understood. So going forward, I think we passed a high volatile frame already. Going forward, probably the bond and the forex probably staying less volatile going forward. But that said, Takaichi government doesn't want to have a high yield. And I have an opportunity to listen to the BOJ official last week, and they mentioned about current situation is something like you're driving in a familiar place without accurate GPS. So normalization in new normal. So they don't want to drive too fast. So it could be a little bit dovish normalization. So currently, market expects great height in April, June horizon. But in mind we're happening, that could probably bring a little more volatility to that timeline. But long term, intermediate term, I think we passed the highest volatility part. So given all these catalysts, where do you see, how much more upside does Nikkei have, and which sectors could see the most benefit from a lot of these reforms? The ones who can bypass the pressure from China and the economic trade tariff situation with U.S. So any industry coming back to Japan or security, defense industry standpoint, such as the heavy industry or shipping industry for the beneficiary But we definitely see the reshuffle from previous year We seen the big winners in AI data center years or large exporting companies, but probably picture will be a little bit different and then different from sector to sector. Yoshiko, great to have you with us. Thanks for stopping by. Yoshiko Yamaguchi of Soya. So, Guy, you've been talking about Japan for a long time. Yeah, and I've been talking about it and things have been playing out, but it does not manifest itself in our markets whatsoever. Obviously, our bond market's been pretty tame. I mean, 10-year yield's now the lowest level we've seen in a while. My concern has been the bond volatility there will make its way here. It hasn't happened yet. You know, I wonder with rates going higher there, you have an unwind a little bit of that carry trade, right? And so what are they buying? They were buying, you know, long-duration assets that were moving higher. This is a lot of U.S. tech stocks, that sort of thing. And, you know, maybe that's adding a little bit of fuel to the fire over the last couple of months or so as these stocks here have underperformed. Coming up, crypto slide back in effect. Bitcoin below $65,000. Why our next guests are still bullish and see the space as a trader's market when Fast Money in Miami Beach returns. Welcome back to Fast Money Live from the iConnections Global Alts Conference in Miami Beach. Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum sliding today as President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs. Joining us now to discuss where crypto heads from here is Reeve Collins of STBL and Joe Armao of Galaxy Digital. Great to have you guys, especially as we witnessed a slide that is happening despite all of the tailwinds in the crypto space. What do you make of what is going on? Yes, I think there's a couple of things going on in the backdrop here. There's obviously geopolitical uncertainty with tariffs, which drives a risk-off mood. But there's a broader theme around AI disruption, which is hurting the digital economy. You're seeing it in software assets. You're seeing a risk contagion across everything digital versus everything physical. and Bitcoin has been exposed to that risk off. The role of crypto treasury companies, how does that play into, if at all, into this decline here? And is there a floor of some sort? People are saying, oh, there's got to be a floor at 60 because that's, you know, I don't know. Can there be a floor? Well, let's hope there is. But, you know, that's prices. We don't know. We never know the markets. But what's interesting at this particular time is there's never been a time where more people are interested in crypto governments and institutions in the technology and into implementing it. And then to see the price is this low, but the enthusiasm that high, it's very strange. And I think you hit the nail on the head. It's just global uncertainty that's driving everything down. How do you play the valuation game? The way that I'll look at this and the way that people talk about gold is probably now north of 20 trillion or probably more than at this point. But let's use 20 trillion as a barometer. And people will say that crypto should at least be what percentage of gold? Some people say it should surpass it. Other people say half. Is that valid? Because just to sort of lick your finger and put it in the air and say it should be this, that to me is a little ridiculous. Yeah, I think there's, look, we have to keep two things in mind. There's a long-term generational adoption trend here where we should expect Bitcoin to close the gap with gold. I agree we can't put our finger in the air and we can't use that as a short term price target. The other side of the equation, what Reeve alluded to, is the infrastructure build in crypto. And it's actually impressive how much the infrastructure adoption is accelerating in stable coins, in tokenization markets, despite the price action. So I think we have to keep both of these concepts in our head. Joe just mentioned, Reeve, the correlation risk off, right? And we're seeing that is like, you know, Nasdaq stocks have taken a dip and, you know, you see many of the software names down 30, 40 percent. And here you go. You know, Bitcoin's been cut in half. How do you think about those correlations? Because one of the real interesting attributes of this asset going back 10 years was that there were no correlations to that. It was one of the things that was really interesting to buy on a relative basis, given, I guess, the beta that it had. Yes, but now that it's such a larger industry and there's more money, especially in the institutions and the traditional finance invested in crypto, so I think that has added a little bit of correlation. It is unfortunate because you would think when the markets are going down, people would kind of flee to an asset that ideally sets itself apart from the traditional institutions. But I think as it grows, they are getting more correlated. But over time, when the technology really takes off and institutions lean into it and actually the money that's sitting on the sidelines that flows into cryptocurrency, that's when we'll see a real difference because it'll be an entirely new sector. I'm going to ask you something maybe crazy, but why should Bitcoin specifically exist? I mean, if Ethereum and Solana are the cryptos of contracts and financial transactions, etc., Bitcoin is not being used right now for transactions. It doesn't hold its value. It's correlated now. So what's the point of investing in Bitcoin? What are you investing in? Yeah, it's a big question. It's similar to gold, right? That's why we come back to digital gold. It's not. It's cutting. I mean, look at the decline. I'll share with you. The similarity is the cultural coalescence around this as a concept and as something that serves a role in a portfolio. And it serves that role for younger investors, and it's exhibited a higher beta to tech, which is declining over time. And I think also it's the first time that there's an alternative to your local currency or to your local financial institutions. Crypto is a global institution that is not controlled by a government. So when you look at all of the risk in the world and all the turmoil, this is a nice thing to have that there is an alternative. There's never been one before. Also, Melissa, we do go through these cycles where it always feels pretty bad in the winters, the downturns. And as Mike Novogratz, our founder, said, it's been pretty frosty out there recently. In past winters, the regulatory environment hasn't been more favorable than this one. I mean, we have everything going for crypto and Bitcoin now that you've ever asked for in the industry, except for price appreciation. That's right. Price has been the disappointing factor. There are other ways to play it, though, right? So as institutions are adopting things like stable coins and tokens, you see lots of equities that you can be launched. What we're doing is launching a long-sert equity hedge fund. There's different ways to play the space, right? Robinhood is building on crypto. They're launching all kinds of products for the next gen. They're integrating prediction markets. So there's different cash flow bets you can now make on the crypto infrastructure that's different than just a price bet at this moment. Absolutely. Last word, Reeve. And that's the beauty about crypto when you're saying that we have the ability to do something completely different. And the regulations now are finally in our favor, meaning the institutions and governments are leaning in. And those trillions of dollars that were on the sidelines are going to flow into this infrastructure. All right. Reeve and Joe, thank you so much for joining us. We do appreciate it. Thank you. Coming up in Novo Nosedive, the latest results sinking that stock and how its chief competitor is edging ahead in the weight loss drug race. We'll explain when Fast Money Live in Miami Beach returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Novo Nordisk plunging over 16% today following new data on the company's next-gen weight loss shot, Cagre Sema. Even though patients lost an average 23% of their body weight after 84 weeks, that fell short of weight loss for patients taking Eli Lilly's trisepatide over the same time frame. NovaShares trading at their lowest levels in almost five years. You said that for emphasis. Yes, because it's as if it never entered the weight loss drug space. And, you know, I saw Jared Holtz today. If he's watching, he should be on this show. He's cheating on us. He was on earlier today. But that's fine. I did see that, too. What's going on here is the market is saying, you know what? You probably should have never gotten into the weight loss space in the first place. And you're not giving almost any value to the rest of their business. Yes, those are helicopters flying overhead. Here, a little quick one. The helicopters overhead during your other show, the men's hockey team was landing in Miami. That's my way of not talking about my junk because Novo is the end of my junk. I look at this and say, oh, my God, trading 90 million shares today. It's about four times normal volume. Maybe today was the capitulation, but it is amazing that they're saying, you know what? You should have never gotten into business and we're not going to reward you for the rest of your business. We should note that there's going to be another readout on Kagrasema with the maximum dosage. So this was sort of the medium dosage. So there could be more ups. There could be upside here. It's really interesting. I don't think there's been a headline at Inovo in a couple of years that's actually hit Eli Lilly. So if you think about that, you know, Eli Lilly trades so well. And all of a sudden, you know, we were talking about for two years the valuation of Eli Lilly, how rich it was. They're expected to have 40 percent earnings growth this year and 24 percent sales growth. And it trades at 31 times this year and 25 times next. So that's not far above a market multiple right now and next year. So it just feels like Lilly is the one you keep on reloading on, the one you keep on betting on. All right. Up next, final trades. We will be back here live in Miami Beach tomorrow for day two of the iConnections Global Alts Conference. Do not miss interviews with Arnold Ventures' John Arnold on the rise in sports betting and prediction markets, as well as big short traders Danny Moses and Vincent Daniel. on what they are seeing in the markets. A pack two hours of closing bell overtime and fast money that starts 4 p.m. Eastern time. Big, big shows ahead. Time for the final trade meantime. Dan? Yeah, Eli Lilly is about 20% above its Georgia-Day moving average. That's the widest gap since this whole GLP-1 thing started. I think this is a buy on pullbacks, but not right here. We've got the staff here is unbelievable. These guys and guys are killing it. And they're all shivering. We'll have space heaters tomorrow. I mean, GDX hanging in like a champ, Melissa Lee. All right. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
