Locked On Auburn -  Daily Podcast On Auburn Tigers Football & Basketball

FIXED -- INTERESTING: Auburn Football's Crucial Battle Could be WAY Overhyped

17 min
Apr 8, 202610 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Hosts Spencer McLaughlin and Zach Blackerby analyze Auburn football's schedule and argue that several games considered automatic losses—particularly Tennessee—may be more winnable than widely perceived. They discuss Auburn's quarterback advantage with Byron Brown, potential upset scenarios, and a realistic path to a 5-0 start before facing Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss in a brutal mid-season stretch.

Insights
  • Tennessee's quarterback uncertainty and lack of wins against teams with winning records last season make them vulnerable despite being perceived as a likely Auburn loss
  • Auburn's established quarterback play with Byron Brown provides a significant advantage over Florida and Tennessee, who face QB transitions or uncertainty
  • A 5-0 start through Florida and Vanderbilt is plausible, which would shift Tennessee from underdog to potential favorite status in the betting market
  • The middle third of Auburn's schedule (Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss) is the true test; winning 2 of 4 games in that stretch could lead to a 9-2 record going into the Iron Bowl
  • Vanderbilt's regression from 10-2 last year is likely due to losing Diego Pavia, making them beatable despite being a legitimate SEC team in 2023
Trends
SEC quarterback transitions creating competitive imbalance—teams with established QBs gaining significant advantage over rebuilding programsPortal and recruiting momentum as predictor of team trajectory—Alex Gholish's recruiting success at Auburn offsetting on-field uncertaintySchedule perception vs. reality gap—media narratives about 'tough schedules' often overlook winnable games and team-specific matchupsFirst-year head coach disadvantage in SEC—Gholish at Auburn and new Tennessee coach facing learning curves despite talentRegression analysis tools (S&P+ rankings) gaining credibility in college football analysis for identifying vulnerable teamsHome field advantage in early-season matchups becoming critical differentiator in competitive conference playQuarterback experience as primary predictor of early-season success over raw talent or roster composition
Topics
People
Spencer McLaughlin
Co-host discussing Auburn's schedule and providing analysis of SEC teams and matchups
Zach Blackerby
Co-host providing Auburn-specific insights and schedule analysis throughout episode
Brian Smith
Referenced for previous discussion about LSU roster talent and Auburn vs. Florida quarterback comparison
Brandon Olson
Quoted regarding Florida's quarterback situation and Aaron Filo's potential as starter
Alex Gholish
Auburn's head coach discussed for recruiting success, competitive nature, and previous Tennessee offensive coordinato...
Byron Brown
Auburn's quarterback evaluated as having significant experience advantage over Tennessee and Florida QB options
Bill Connelly
Creator of S&P+ rankings used to analyze Vanderbilt regression and team strength projections
Quotes
"I think there's questions for Tennessee. Yeah, I'm 100% with you there, because that's where I was going. Because if you're just going anywhere and we were to go in order, then the option is obviously Baylor, where Auburn is a pretty decent favorite there, or Florida, where I think Auburn should be favored at home as well."
Spencer McLaughlinEarly in episode
"I've got more established quarterback play and for that game, I'm at home. Simple and very powerful in why I made like that."
Zach BlackerbyMid-episode
"If Auburn gets through that particular stretch, the hype train will probably be on the tracks and then they will get seriously tested after the buy with the Georgia LSU and Ole Miss."
Spencer McLaughlinLate episode
"If you can find a way, like my instant, my gut tells me it's going to be one and three in that stretch. If you go one and three and win all the games you're supposed to. You're eight and four."
Zach BlackerbyClosing segment
"I don't have a solid level of confidence in anyone that Auburn is facing that they're just light years ahead of where Auburn can be."
Spencer McLaughlinMid-episode analysis
Full Transcript
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Head to PipeDrive.com forward slash audio for a 30-day free trial with no credit card or payment required. That's PipeDrive.com forward slash audio. Is there a chance that Auburn's game against Tennessee is being a little over-hyped? You are locked on Auburn, your daily podcast on the Auburn Tigers. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Spent some McLaughlin of Locked On College Football, and Zach Blackerby of Locked On Auburn. It's several outlets saying Auburn has one of the toughest schedules in college football, which is normal. That's a pretty normal thing, and a lot of that has to do with, you know, the teams that you play every year. You're going to play Alabama and Georgia, no matter what. But I am curious when you look a little bit under the microscope here and go game by game, which of these games from your perspective, from the outside looking in, would you say, oh, yeah, that's winnable? Because I think a lot of folks, maybe more outside of Auburn, sure some in Auburn as well. You talking a game that isn't automatically, you know, winnable on paper? Yeah, it's like a toss-up game, or it's like, yeah, this is going to come down to, you know, coaching and execution. But are you trying to get it one that people wouldn't expect me to say is potentially winnable? Yeah, I guess so. Like, Tennessee, for instance, would be one that I think a lot of folks are saying, yeah, that's probably a loss. And I think there's questions for Tennessee. Yeah, I'm 100% with you there, because that's where I was going. Because if you're just going anywhere and we were to go in order, then the option is obviously Baylor, where Auburn is a pretty decent favorite there, or Florida, where I think Auburn should be favored at home as well. But the one that I think a lot of folks who maybe just glance at the schedule or don't know a ton about these teams might look at and say, oh, Auburn's not going to win that game. I'm in the same boat as you putting it with Tennessee. And I could see first year head coach Madness maybe at Jerdon Hare, LSU potentially, because LSU's talent on paper, as I talked about not long ago with our guy, Brian Smith, of the Portal podcast, that's a top probably five roster talent-wise in college football, at the very least, they're inside the top 10. But Tennessee last year, when the season came to a close, after they lost their bowl game, became a poster child for those who were trying to knock the SEC, and it was hard to push back on that, because Tennessee, yeah, they won eight games, they weren't a bad football team. They didn't beat a team with a winning record last year. And they're making a change at quarterback because Joey Aguilar didn't get approved for his extra year of eligibility that he was seeking. And so they've got a legitimate and one of the most interesting quarterback battles in the country there in Knoxville. You compare that to Auburn. And I've got a guy who we've talked about him before, Byron Brown, I don't think he's a tier one SEC quarterback, but I trust him a lot more than whoever's going to start for Tennessee, because he'll have way more playing experience, regardless of what conference it was in. Another one, another game you mentioned, and I've said this and I get DMs every time I say this. So I'm going to say this and then add a caveat just so we'll see if we can prevent some of these tweets and DMs. But I think Florida, that third game of the season, I think hosting Florida is the most important game of the season for Auburn. This is not me saying that the Baylor game doesn't matter. That is not what I'm saying. Obviously, you need to beat Baylor. If you lose Baylor, that becomes a very obviously you have to make that point very clear. Just putting that out there. No need to DM me. I get it. I get it. But I mean, I said this right after Gholish was hired and some are always, you know, linked to Florida where, okay, both of these teams are going to be in an arms race against each other as far as rebuilding these rosters. And they both opened their SEC. They make their SEC debuts against each other. I mean, what a storyline. Oh, by the way, then Alex Gholish, just a few weeks later, goes to Knoxville to take on his former boss. Plenty of storylines for Alex Gholish. But I asked this to Brian Smith. You just mentioned Brian Smith. I asked him this last week, like right now, who would you rather be going into the season? Auburn or Florida? I asked you that same question about that matchup specifically. Who would you rather be right now? Auburn. Easy. And the reason is I've got more established quarterback play and for that game, I'm at home. Simple and very powerful in why I made like that. That's not just something that's easy off the top of my head. It's like those are huge. Huge components. Yeah, I talked to Brandon Olson of Locked on Gators and he said, yeah, I mean, we think it'll be Aaron Filo. We don't really know. And what exactly is Aaron Filo? I don't know. I know that Byron Brown has got plenty of potential and sure he's taken a step up and all, but man, so is Aaron Filo because he's going to be playing. And starting for the first time, if it does wind up being him or they've got a couple talented young guys that could push for the starting job there. So having the ability to go through spring camp, no, and it is possible. I have to allow for this possibility that Florida knows who their starting quarterback is and they're just not saying it. And he's getting all the reps with the ones and building all that continuity and chemistry. Auburn is 100% doing that. Florida has a what? 60% chance of doing that. And maybe they're doing it behind the scenes, but I think they actually might not know just because Filo's not super proven yet. I can't believe we're overlooking the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. I mean, the disrespect. How deep did you get talking Southern Miss? How deep? Do you know who their quarterback is? No. Do you know who the head coaches? Alright, so let's move on. I'm Clea Butler, host of Lockdown Women's Basketball, and this is Mazda's Women's Basketball Snapshot, celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. UCLA made history by winning its first NCAA Women's Basketball National Championship, dominating South Carolina 79 to 51. The Bruins controlled the game from start to finish with elite defense and balanced scoring, finishing the season 37 and 1. 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Listers of the show can get a $75 sponsored job credit to help your job get the premium status it deserves. That's at indeed.com slash podcast. That is indeed.com slash podcast needs to hire. That's a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. So when you talk about though, like what Oliver could do, it was Charles Huff. It was sure it was. And their quarterback was Brett Farr, right? Once upon a time. At some point. So like when you when you look at this and this is going to be, I'm going to bug just for a second. Orange and blue glasses, but just come with me for a second. Okay. Auburn takes care of business against Baylor. That game goes how we think it should go. Seven and a half point favorites according to our friends at Fandle against DJ Lagway. Yes. You've seen his like the balls that he's throwing right now. It's just like the wobblyest things I've ever seen in my life. It's crazy. You know, Tim T. Want to play off game after Tim T. Both threw some wobbly balls in the NFL. He still beat the Steelers in a playoff game. That's true. And then all right, Southern Miss. Sure. I know you want to give them respect. That's fine. We can't that's fine off battling in Southern Miss. They went. Yeah. Let's say they beat Florida. Let's say you, me, Brian Smith, like we're right about that game. Bandy, Jordan here. There's no Diego Pavia. I think Auburn wins that game. Then all of a sudden, like, OK, Auburn's got three pretty solid wins. They're four and oh, and they're going to Knoxville. Once again, to take on a team that you and I both think is beatable. Alex Gholish being, you know, the petty guy that he is as far as like the competitive fire, like he's going to act like it doesn't matter. Actually, he may say it matters a ton knowing him. I'm not sure, but it's going to matter to him going back to Knoxville where he was the offensive coordinator for the best offensive college football that year. If they win that game, Spencer, I mean the buzz, the issue is then it's a bi-week in Georgia. Like that's tough. Like that's tough. But there's a chance. There's a chance that Auburn is feeling really good going into that bi-week five and oh with four really solid wins. If you're looking for me to be the cold blanket on the fire that you're drumming up. You can react however you want. I'm not going to do that because I'm not. I don't know how to push back on the very possible nature of everything you just laid out. By the way, Bill Connelly's S&P plus rankings, which as I've talked about on my show, I don't think is 100 percent perfect, but nothing is. It's about as good as you're going to get. It's a useful tool. Yeah, it's a useful tool. It's a good starting point. Like when I read Putz, I use a Plumbob method and I don't take it as gospel, but I use it as a starting point. The Baker's about your golf game. Yeah, well somebody out there that listens to this show knows golf and understands what I just said. And if even one person does, it was worth bringing up. All that matters. You're right. So if Auburn gets through that particular stretch, the hype train will probably be on the tracks and then they will get seriously tested after the buy with the Georgia LSU and Ole Miss. But I don't have a solid level of confidence in anyone that Auburn is facing that they're just light years ahead of where Auburn can be. And you talked about Vanderbilt. This is why I mentioned the S&P Plus. Bill Connelly's got Vanderbilt as one of his strongest projected regression teams from last year. And Vanderbilt was a darn good football team last year. They were 10-2. They had a good year. And were they best of the best? No, but were they a legitimate tier two SEC team? Absolutely. Diego Pavia did so much for them. So, so much. He was the number two in the Heisman for a reason. Obviously, he felt like he should have won. But the regression for Vanderbilt beyond the obvious of, well, it's Vanderbilt. How long can they actually keep winning? Like we live in a world where Indiana has won 27 games in the last two years and lost two and they just won the national championship. So anything is really possible there. But a Vanderbilt regression certainly feels feasible and they're probably starting a five-star true freshman in Jared Curtis. That'll be his first road start as well. Yeah, that opening stretch of games, Baylor, Southern Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, I think at most Auburn is a point spread underdog in one. And I think there is a world if they start hot, they could go to Tennessee as a point spread favorite. I don't think that's likely. I'm just saying that it could be one of those things where, wow, Auburn's a one and a half point favorite, basically a pick-up. I can see that if they start undefeated. That one screams Tennessee minus three and a half to me. But yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be close. At open, yes. But if you then introduce a 4-0 Auburn team with a win against Florida Vanderbilt and Baylor. Yeah, you never know. Yeah, because you mentioned the stretch after that, Georgia, Alish, you Ole Miss, then Arkansas, Amos, Mississippi, State, Sanford, all winnable for sure. And then you go to Alabama. That one speaks for itself. The middle stretch, the middle third of this season is kind of what Auburn fans have talked about. At Tennessee, at Georgia, LSU, at Ole Miss. If you can win two of those games somehow, you've got a chance to really overachieve here. It's that ceiling dream scenario that we've mentioned before where you're nine and two going into the iron bowl. That's what that has to entail. Like I totally agree. And it's pretty tough that in that four game stretch over five weeks, one home game. And three true road games. That's tough. But if you can find a way, like my instant, my gut tells me it's going to be one and three in that stretch. If you go one and three and win all the games you're supposed to. You're eight and four. And I think most people will be happy with that. Especially if the offense returns to Auburn and Byrum looks good. It's just a fun team and Golis is killing it on the recruiting trail and all of that. Like, yeah, I think most people would take that. That'd be fun. I think you'd have to take it. I think you're crazy if eight and four, which I think you've predicted for Auburn each of the last two years. I think I said seven and five last year. Yeah, okay. But if you look at eight and four, way off. Yeah. As an Auburn fan and say, I don't know, I'd let no eight wins take the money and run cash out of the casino and come back the next night. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Spencer McLaughlin for folks tuning in. How can they check out everything you've got going on? Any way that you choose to consume this particular show is the same way you can consume. Locked on college football where I hit the biggest stories in the greatest sports on planet Earth. Or if you want to check in on Oregon for any reason, I also host locked on ducks. And if you're wondering why you can find those shows and the same platforms as this show, it could be because it's part of the same network. I heard along the grapevine that it's the number one sports podcast network. Did you hear that? Yeah. I was told I was reliably informed. That happened. Locked on doing well. Good stuff from Spencer McLaughlin. Thank you guys so much for making Locked on Auburn your first or second listen every single day. We will see you guys tomorrow. Please like the video. Please subscribe. We'll see you next time. This has been Locked on Auburn. The All-New Mazda CX-5. More to move every side of you. See it in five films at mazdausa.com. Google is a trademark of Google LLC. 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