The Pats’ Battle with Seattle: A Super Bowl Preview!

Welcome back to the Minicom Show featuring Lenny, only NFL podcast. One of the hosts thinks the game already happened, the Corgi races, Pro Bowl. I was there. I saw it in person. It was electric? It was electric. The Corgis are actually from the cities of the teams they're representing. They fly the Corgis in? I got to take my photo with a Corgi named Sam who's from Long Island who was wearing a Giants jersey. That's very cute. The owners had exactly the Long Island accents you would dream of. That's actually really cute. I did not know the corgis were flown in. That's very fun. Lenny would be a disaster at an event like that. That voice has, of course, been so lack for those who are listening. We are here on Radio Row. It is as chaotic as usual. It's always so weird. Every time we do this pod, it's like 3,000 miles apart, and then all of a sudden it's four feet, and there's no headphones. It's odd. What is the number one question you've been getting about this game, other than the obvious, like, what's the score? I've gotten a lot of like, you know, what's the big matchup? Like, what's the number one? I think that's a big thing this year is like, oh, the JSN, Christian Gonzalez. Well, that is a legitimately very fascinating question. And I'm always like, it's a very fascinating question. It's going to happen on like, you know, 25% of the plays though, right? So you don't want to overreact to it. But I think that's the one I'm getting so far. I have been asked a lot about the coaching matchup, which I think is really interesting. This is kind of the coach of the year bowl, which is fun. Can we get an emotions check on you? Like, how are we five days out of a Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl against the New England Patriots in an unbelievable Cinderella season? I feel very relaxed. I don't know if I buy it. No, I buy it. You seem relaxed. Yeah. Well, I feel like I have a good handle on this game. I actually felt like – you don't feel that way. Okay, good. Well, that's why we're here to do this podcast. I actually felt like Eagles-Chiefs, I didn't have my arms around it because I just couldn't figure out how much the line of scrimmage discrepancy would be a factor. A lot, it turns out. This one, I feel like I have a better understanding about those teams. Although I would argue, and we can start on when the Seahawks have the ball, that side is a little bit wonkier to me. Yeah. Because you have a quarterback in Sam Darnold and a defense in New England who were very different in the postseason from who they were for a good chunk of the regular season, both better. So there's a little bit of like, you know, for this podcast, when I do all my matchups, I like to do splits, full season, half season, postseason and the Patriots defense is just so hard they're hard to get your arms around because they've been such a different unit in the postseason and also when different guys have been available they've looked not just different in terms of performance but also tendencies yeah and it feels like you said coming into Chiefs Eagles I remember we did that pod and there was so much of like but also the Eagles front might just delete everybody and a lot of the the Patriots defensive performance this postseason has been where our front is just deleting everybody right But the Texans and the Chargers games is just like, man, there's a lot here that's not usable or not as viable in terms of data and film takeaways because, man, it was just different weight classes in that front. Then obviously they had the great game against the Broncos. But then again, backup quarterback, and it's snowing and so on and so forth. So I agree. It's very, very tough. And then you have, like you said, Darnold coming off that Rams game, which was by e-paper dropback, it was the second best game of the year. By quality of watching, that was the best game Darnold played. He was unbelievable in that game. Yeah, that was the best game I watched Sam Darnold play ever. And so you come off of that. I know. Like, it's a Rams team that was, right, his, like, you know, cursed opponent, his feared foe. And, like, now, all right, it's a Patriots team that is certainly a good defense but is not an elite defense. And, all right, like, let's just get that version of Sam and win by 20. I'm not convinced we're going to get that version of Sam. We know that Sam's really capable of spiraling. We know that Sam's four games, right, his peaks and his valleys are really far apart. And to me, like, I watched Anthony Bradford in that game against the Rams give up eight pressures at right guard. and now it's Milton Williams and Christian Barmore coming down the pipe. And you have two weeks to prepare blitzes and two weeks to come up with game plans to get one-on-one opportunities in that pass rush on the interior. Not just Bradford, but, like, Sundle's gettable. You know, Zabel hasn't been the same player since his injury. Like, to me, it's going to be a game of a lot of interior quick pressure. So you're really buying the New England pass rush. Yeah. I buy Williams and Barmore a lot, right? Blitz and, like, you know, how much do you want to blitz against the Seahawks? And their whole, like, oh, since week 14 we're a blitzing team now. That worries me. Because, okay, you get home on one, on the other one it's Kenneth Walker in space against Jelani Tavai, and, hey, if we break that tackle, it's gangbusters. So I don't think it'll be a blitz-heavy game. I do think that on those pure dropbacks, you're going to see an advantage for the Patriots' pass rush, especially on the interior. How many pure dropbacks do we get? How many third and longs do we get? So that's what I was just about to say is, like, yeah, if you told me that the Patriots are playing this game in third and long, I would feel pretty concerned about Seattle. I think the question is whether or not New England can even get to third and long against this team. And I agree with everything you said. Also, Darnold, again, like in the NFC Championship, so from week 11, the Rams game, through the end of the season, he was like 27 in the QBR. He was a disaster when pressured. When he was pressured, he had three touchdowns and five interceptions over the course of the entire second half of the season. He had three touchdowns under pressure in the Rams game. So it was just like crazy blackout performance from him. He is always, everybody, I know people hate it when I say pressure sensitive, usually when I'm talking about Jared Goff. But the reality is some quarterbacks are more sensitive to others. It has always been an issue with Sam Darnold. So to that point, EPA per unpressured dropbacks, Sam Darnold was sixth among all, or excuse me, eighth among all quarterbacks. Kept clean. Pressure dropbacks, 24th EPA per. Sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt unpressured, 21st when pressured. And it goes down to sacks and interceptions, right? He had a turnover-worthy play, fumble or interception, on 7% of his pressure drop back. He led the league. So while the overall league average effective pressure on quarterbacks can at times be overstated, for this dude, we are positive. But it's like, also, again, we don't, like you said, they went up against the Chargers. They have the worst offensive line in football. It's between them and the Raiders, I felt like, this year, but I'm pretty comfortable saying that. Chargers and Texans are both bottom five. Texans are, well, okay, pass block win rate. Chargers are 32nd. Texans are 30th. Denver was eighth. However, it's like how much. Farmore and Williams did record some quality wins against legitimately great Denver interior offensive linemen, Quinn Miners. That's a good offensive line. Seattle has been an above-average pass-blocking unit this season. Over the course of the year, New England's pass rush has not been great, but not having Milton Williams, even when they had Milton Williams, though. Actually, I did grab some stats. Okay, so I want to talk about. we'll get to why I think Seattle can mitigate this because I do by not getting into third down, but just to stick, stick to the Patriots pass rush for a little bit. First of all, when Milton Williams and Christian Barmore both play this Patriots defense as a 57% success, they're top four in just about every metric. At one point this season, their pressure was like 48% or something. It was absurd. With Williams, they are six league wide in pass rush win, which is ESPN's metric for whether you win in two seconds or less. Without him, so that's a 41% pass rush win. Without him, that drops a full 10 percentage points to 31, which would be 26. So they go from one of the best pass rushes in the NFL with him, one of the worst without him. His impact is undeniable. I would argue it's almost as big in the run game, too, because their run splits with and without him are very dramatic as well. We'll get to that in a second. So all of that matters. All of that will concern me if I'm a Seahawks fan. But here's the thing I want to throw out. it's first and 10. Seattle has two tight ends on the field, condensed formation. If you're New England, what are you doing in this situation? Is he under center? He's under center. I'm blitzing it, right? Because I think that you're going to get me on some running plays, and Kenneth Walker's had a great postseason. I love Kenneth Walker, and I'm so happy that God is smiling on him as of late. There will inevitably be a couple plays in this game where God does not smile on him. He has a four-yard loss. But in general, Kenneth's playing great. The running game has improved. But in general, I want to blitz it. And when you look at some of Sam's worst games, against the Panthers, against the Vikings, even that Cam Kinchin sack that the Rams had in the conference round. They got them twice the DBs, I think, in that game. If you send, when you condense the formation, you go under center, you're allowing me to bring corners and safeties closer to the core of the formation, closer to the ball. And now I can send those players much easily. It's harder to disguise when those players rush against spread formations. So I'm blitzing ever-living daylights out of condensed in the hope that I can get you out of it. And if you want to go and be a little bit more gun, I don't feel your running game nearly as much. This is my preoccupation with the Rams in the postseason. I was like, why is everyone not just doing what Dennis Allen did and forcing them out of that? Right. And so it's I will blitz you knowing that I will take some negatives, knowing that you're going to get JSN on a crosser and it's going to go for 17 yards. Buddy, you were going to do that anyway. Kenneth Walker's going to pop a 15-yard run. Buddy, you were going to do that anyway. Every so often I get an 8-yard sack, and now I'm on the forefoot. So part of the challenge, though, when Sam Darnold is under center is his ability to roll out from both sides, accurate both sides, and the Seahawks are so able to punish you, they'll flood one side and then it's A.J. Barner wide open as the isolated, whoever's on the opposite side. And they can do that in part because of Darnold's ability to throw on the move. Got a nice arm, Sam. It is actually like, when I think back to what did I get wrong in terms of why they wanted Sam and why he's such a good fit with Kubiak, that's probably the first thing that comes to mind is they probably clearly love his ability to throw on those design boots rolling both ways. So, you know, you're rolling dice a little bit if you're sending pressure. But I tend to concur with you because I just think it's a really tricky matchup otherwise. So, Seattle, 12 personnel. The stats are hilarious. They're pretty good, man. I mean, first of all, they use play action 46% of the time. Healthy. Which is insane. Actually, four times the amount they use play action out of 11 personnel. So when they use 12 personnel, that's crazy. When they are in 11, which they are a decent amount, near the bottom of the league, right? And when they use play action, throwing out those two tight end sets, they average 13.1 yards per play. That's pretty good, right? You get down the field in seven plays. It's pretty healthy. So you hear that, New England. And some of that is because they are able to get defenses to put three linebackers on the field, play base, and feast on it. But it's not just throwing on the linebackers. They also get a lot of their explosives. They get one-on-ones out of those looks because they get single high coverage. And it's a lot of two-man concepts, a lot of Yankee, a lot of dagger. Somebody's open. If you tilt towards JSN, and we're going to talk about it in a second, you're usually able to get one of their miscellaneous other guys open. Yeah, they're fifth in the league, Sam is, in wide open targets 10 yards down the field. Put a pin in that because I have a stat on that that I'm obsessed with. So, okay, so back to New England. So if you're New England, you're thinking, all right, well, we don't want to put our base defense on the field, right? Because that's just a mistake. So let's put our nickel out there. And New England, when Robert Spillane has been healthy, is largely a nickel defense, even against multiple tight end looks. The problem is the improvement in the Seahawks run game in that respect. So this is why I'm so obsessed with, like, first and second down in this game. So the Seahawks run game, I want to pull some numbers because from the last two months of the season, they have really improved, and there's a litany of reasons for that. It's not just 12. They've actually really improved their 11-personnel gun run game. It's way better in the second half of the season than it was in the beginning. But when they put multiple tight ends on the field and teams respond by playing nickel, they are just shredding them. In fact, versus nickel generally this season, when the Seahawks run the football out of 12, they, okay, so probably not nickel, just when the Seahawks run the football with two tight ends, they are seventh in success rate. When defenses match that with nickel, which is a decent sample size, 58% success rate on the ground, which is very, very high. So go back to, you mentioned the pressures for sure. But from a personnel standpoint, if you're New England, if you're Zach Kerr, are you comfortable trusting this improved Patriots run defense that we've seen over the last five weeks or so against these multiple tight ends or 21 that they put a fullback on the field too? And it's tricky because when they want to get to more base, get to four DBs, they do it by putting a fifth defensive lineman on the field, right? They're a base 3-4 defense. So Kairis Tonga will come onto the field to play the true nose. They'll get Anfernee Jennings. They get Jelani Tavai on the line of scrimmage and they have two backers off in Spillane and in Christian Ellis And that like you know it not even like your additional body is a linebacker body your additional body is a defensive tackle body and so now you really worried about some of this this sort of the tight ends it's gonna be a big Eric Sauber game pretty much is what I'm hearing from you in this one like the multi-tight end stuff is huge what does I say here AJ Barner Sauber right I mean that young man can block Barner or Sauber well both yeah I know they're both like true tight ends in that they're anonymous dudes who can block. I mean, they're not anonymous. Barner is a delight. He's so good. He's a complete tight end. I remember watching him last year when Fant was on the team and just being like, man, their best tight end only gets to play 20% of the snaps. This is the guy. He's been enormously valuable to them. That matchup on the boundary where it's Saubert and Barner against Anfernee Jennings and Jelani Thabai, who are two big boy outside linebackers who will hit you in the running game. Big, big, big matchup. I think you're going to see them play some base and you're going to see Tonga get on the field. Tonga is a very valuable player for them. If they don't go base, the issue is that they play Barmore at the nose. And Barmore at the nose is awesome for your pass rush. But not in the right, yeah. And like, again, there's a little bit of the Patriots defense. You're going to have to live in a high variance world where like on your Barmore at the nose reps when you're in that four down front, you're going to get penetration. You're going to get TFLs. You're going to get second and 11s. It's just when you lose in the running game, you're going to lose pretty far down the field. And so, to me, I think you're going to see the base. They're going to play with those four DBs. They're going to run Gonzalez with JSN on the cross. and they're going to run Carlton Davis with Cooper up on the crossers and say, we trust these matchups. Let's funnel these throws to Barner and to Sauber and to Kenneth Walker and make tackles in space. I think that's your best answer. I don't love it as an answer, but you're going to have to honor the running game. Okay, so you just said run Christian Gonzalez on the crossers to JSN. I guess that kind of brings me to the next question, which is how comfortable are you playing man coverage? So JSN. He's a good player. Famously productive. Against man coverage this year. I mean, he's ridiculous against everything. over four yards per route run against man coverage uh he has like a 45 percent air yard share or something like that like he just owns the entire team's passing no it's higher than that on throws over 10 yards it's 55 i got that there's only one player there's only one player in the nfl over 40 and that's tetra mcmillan and sometimes because like horton got injured and shaheed was mid-season but i don't care it's still such a funny stat so it would be a lot easier for the Patriots if they could just say, hey, Christian Gonzalez, you're one of the best man corners in football. You've been awesome this postseason. And it would be easier because, and this is, I said, put a pin in the wide open stats. So when you watch the CX game, inevitably you'll notice somebody's wide ass open. Can't go back. Yeah. Go to job for a reason. Now we're open. That is all the play action. But a lot of it is the gravity of Jackson Smith and Jigba. A stat I love is on throws over 10 yards to any NFL receivers outside of Seattle, the average receiver is there's a 10% wide open rate. Yeah. In Seattle, if you throw to anyone other than JSN over 10 yards, it is 20%. Yeah. That receiver is twice as likely as the average NFL receiver to be wide open. because of JSN. And it helps on throws downfield. It also helps on the screen game, which I think is really, I mean, go back and watch. Kenneth Walker lately, man, on the screen game. And like, so I pulled this for NFL Live, like in the Rams game, there's the Barner throwback where he's wide open because Quentin, like, trips trying to chase JSN. But that giant screen to Kenneth Walker happens because JSN runs the crosser and pulls half the defense with him. All of which is to say, none of this would happen if you could say, we've got one guy who can handle him. You don't have to worry. Do you actually feel comfortable doing that, though? So I think on some third downs, yes, right, you're going to do it because you expect JSN to be a lot more vertical and in isolation on those downs. You, like, the Patriots run less man coverage this year than I think people realize, right, where they were a heavy man coverage in the last couple of years. They hired the defensive coordinator Terrell Williams from the Lions, or they're going to run man coverage. Really, they run a lot of quarters, and that allows you to play your corners in loose man on the outside, right? Quarters with a highly variable coverage. But against our play-action crossers and against our condensed sets, if I'm in quarters, the safety can drill down, right? So I can be playing this outside. You're underneath fast, right? Safety's going to come pick you up with leverage. So I don't need to have, as I said, Gonzalez chasing JSN across the formation. It's when you get those vertical opportunities for JSN that you have to decide, do we like Gonzalez with his length and his speed? It's a pretty rare blend where he can be physical line of scrimmage and also run with a guy. Do we like that without safety help? Because all year long, the Patriots, we don't need a cloud safety. We don't need a split-field safety. We don't need a safety help for Carlton Davis, Christian Gonzalez. We're fine. This is the real test. Are you going to walk out comfortable saying, you know, we're going to let him take the vertical stuff down the field? Most of the defenses that have had success against the Seahawks get a half field safety over JSN. And they'll let their corners play. I was about to say, the thing about the Gonzalez question is, I can't point to an example where a guy, where I was like, this guy blanked him. To your point, there's been games where teams have allocated extra resources to stop him or they've been very physical. Yeah. So you look at that first Rams game. You look at the Vikings game. He had like two catches for 27 yards. And then that Panthers game, he had eight catches, only for 72 yards, right? It was like nine yards per reception, which for JSN is like the worst day you've ever heard of this year. And on all three of those games, you have longer corners. You have Emmanuel Forbes. You have Mike Jackson. You have Isaiah Rogers. And they let those guys play physical line of scrimmage, and they protected them vertically, right? And they said, be physical with him, play man coverage, play in the back pocket with him, but we're going to keep you capped, which we're going to allow you to be physical at the line. Otherwise, JSN is so quick out the gates. the moment you miss your punch, he's gone. The Patriots have done the first half of that, where they've let Davis and they've let Gonzalez be physical, right? You go and you watch Gonzalez. He traveled with T. Higgins, and he traveled with Drake London, and Amika Buka, these big receivers, and he was just punching them and punching them and punching them at the line. But they did it with no safety help because they felt okay with that. Jason's such a different receiver. He's so fast, exactly. He's so quick. And so I think you're going to see them play a lot more too high and a lot more like two-man instead of quarters. And once you start playing two-man, now I'm getting you on the crossers. Now JSN's running away from Christian Gonzalez. So there's damned if you do, damned if you don't, when you go against a receiver of this caliber. Yeah. I guess to put a pin on this, I do think what we started discussing at the beginning is probably the most important thing, which is to me it's just about pressure for New England more so than it is leaning into what you would hope is. I mean, this is kind of what we thought, when we talked about the Patriots ahead of the season, the thesis for them being the rebuild happening fast on defense was you you have now two an elite corner duo and an elite defensive tackle duo right and that has borne out yeah and there's been other players who have been good i mean i love marcus jones blaine's been amazing for them and the run in particular the marcus jones game in this one is big because if they're having a good gonzalez day buddy jason's getting motioned into the slot right so that actually i should have hit at that yeah like so the Patriots corners usually play sides Clint Kubiak loves moving forget the slot put him in the backfield he'll find ways to get the matchups for him that he wants I guess that just goes back to what I was saying which is if I'm imagining a world in which the pay the new the the Zizyaks don't average 13 yards per play throwing off you know out of 12% out, it starts with New England getting negative plays on first down and finding ways to pressure Darnold without compromising themselves to screens and such, but also in the run. I don't know. I just think schematically Seattle has a lot of answers for what New England could do with pressure because... The movement series, the rollout series is really the one. Darnold averages a rollout on one out of every eight dropbacks this year. and like if you this is such an easy game to roll him out on because if you are getting five man fronts then getting that tight end out fast you're they're going to be weak in the flats if you're getting off alignments because they're playing that quarters the flats are going to be weak it's just boot and rhythm boot and rhythm boot and rhythm and then it's boot and and counter right like you know some sort of a shot play and they've been like kubiak has been nails with those all year so to me it's gonna be a very heavy rollout game i wouldn't be surprised if sam tucks the ball and runs a few times as well you know he you know not a good runner but it's enough to keep the sticks moving that if I can get Milton Williams Christian Barmore flowing left to right in early quarter first quarter first couple drives now I can drop back a little bit more reliably and expect them to be a little bit slower out of the blocks your edges have to play that pretty aggressively you think about chase on taking down CJ Stroud on the boot and forcing the turnover um and for as good as Anthony Jennings and Jelani Tavai are in terms of some of that pound-for-pound rushing stuff man these are not you know mirror you in space sort of a player right and so you can get things flowing one direction I think you said the screen game is going to be really important It's going to be all about slowing down the upfield step of Barmore and Williams. That's the whole game plan is let's make those guys play a little bit slower, a little bit more left to right, and that's going to protect Sam from his worst version of himself. New England's been very good against screens this year. This disciplined team. They're very, yeah. They're not giving up. I think the problem is the, you know, JSN really his gravity affects those screens a lot. I also think Seattle's offensive line is a very good screen team now this year. when you see them, they're moving out there. So let me ask you this. This is the thing I've been trying to answer to myself. It's, you know, you're the Seahawks offense. You're coming off the third, fourth drive of the game. They are traveling Gonzalez with JSN. They are pressing and clouding him. They're getting brackets on him on third down. Like you have not yet gotten the guy activated. You need to go to a secondary receiving option and feel like this is the matchup that you want to attack, right? Cup, Shahid, Barner against X, Y, or Z. If not JSN game, then whom game? if you were sitting on the Seahawks sideline? Well, I like the speed of Shahid against Carlton Davis. I could see him getting grabby downfield on him, putting double move on him. So I don't dislike – if they're playing it that way, I don't dislike that matchup. I like Walker in the passing game a lot. I agree. That's where my head goes. You know, I know you talked about the gravity of the screens and whatnot, but also some of it – like he is just a really good receiver. It's actually kind of crazy that it's taken them this long to really activate him in that regard. Unbelievable hands. He's catching wheel routes 20 yards downfield, laying out for them. As somebody who very insistently bets on Kenneth Walker receiving a lot, I'm really happy with where we've gotten the last two months of the season. I mean, but here's the thing. You're talking about – yes, okay. If Christian Gonzalez can do that. I don't think – I'm betting on 11. Yeah, no, I just – JSN over under 95 receiving yards. Over. Crazy. MVP. I just think he was actually my pick for MVP. That's the sense. It's him or Eric Salbert. That's clearly where you're at. Dude, we were watching back some of the plays in the Rams game on live today and, like, close up of his routes, and I cannot believe how good he is right now. I know that's – sorry, that's like a bore. I just, the way he is moving out there, the intelligence and craftsmanship of his route running is just unbelievable. I tweeted this earlier this week and wonder your emotional response to it. Do you remember that one rookie season where 28% of his targets were screen routes? I've forgotten that. It doesn't exist to me. They used him so much on bubble screens. I know. And, like, obviously he's improved as a player for the last two years, but it is brutal to think of doing that and now watching him run, like, unbelievable routes. Okay, let me ask you one more question. So let's say New England starts doing that. How much of JSN in the slot do you think we see in this game? Quite a bit. And this, I think, is a thing that has been underappreciated this year. 80% of his routes are out wide. That's like a Mike Evans rate. There was a crazy next-gen stat. Did you see this in their little packet that he's the first receiver to ever lead in yards from the slot and then yards from split out wide? Yes. Last year he had the best season of a slot receiver since Cooper Cup. Crazy. And this year he had the best season of a receiver in terms of just receiving production since Tyreek Hill. It is preposterous how good he's become. So yes, I agree with you. Probably Gonzalez alone is not enough to stop this, but it's two weeks and it's a lot of defensive game planning. They're going to have something for him, and then I'm curious who Seattle turns to after that. Do you think it's a heavy 12 game? I jumped on that early. So I do. I'm interested in Elijah Arroyo's availability. We haven't really heard a lot about that over the course of this week. he's when when a royal was available for them they obviously were a little bit more of a 12 personnel team that obviously coincides with them getting so I would wager that it is that way but at the same time I do think that I like like you said Shahid against Carlton Davis and then also Cup against Marcus Jones Marcus Jones, whom I like very much, struggles with the bigger, more physical players. So you like your matchups. I think it's a really important game for Seattle to constantly have New England and run past conflict, and their ability to do so out of 12 personnel, as I was talking about the play-action rate, is really important to keeping them on their heels, mitigating some of that pass rush. you talked about it, the boots are going to be big. It's funny because Patriots' offense, I feel the exact opposite way, where every handoff is a waste of time. Buddy, we're shooting. We're not messing around with it. All right, well, let's take a break, come back, and talk about that Patriots' offense. All right, we're back. So the Patriots' offense has been lackluster in the postseason. The thesis I've been presenting to people here and beyond is I think that the Patriots defense is not going to look as good as they looked the last three weeks. And I think the Patriots offense is going to look better than they have. Do you accept that? They're going to walk into a climate controlled building with a roof and be like, thank God we get to play football again. Like it was, it was truly, you know, deleterious weather in that, the end of that Texans game. Deleterious weather. You had to concur earlier, right? We're doing the nerdy pot on Radio Row in that Texans game and that Broncos game. And so I think the weather is going to be a big aspect. I think you saw May's, you know, kind of ball security and the hand size really affected him in the cold. That's going to be less of an issue in this game. The Seahawks defense also is a defense where, like, they are – they create a ton of havoc. They get turnovers, don't get me wrong. But they are less we pressure you, we disrupt you oriented than the Broncos and Texans and more, hey, check the football down. We're going to murder the back. Like, you know, it's a little bit less, like, exactly on May, so on and so forth. And so I do think, yeah, just overall, Patriots offense, you can talk about all the schedule stuff you want. They've certainly looked bad in the postseason against really good defenses. But, like, this is a good offense. Drake May led the league in everything. We're pretty positive this is a good offense. Yeah, it's another very significant challenge. But to your point, it's a different challenge. It's a little bit more like the Chargers, I would say, than the Texans, the Seahawks defense. We should probably start with the pressure thing because at this moment, Drake May has taken 15 sacks, which is currently the most ever. In the postseason. In the postseason, yeah, yeah. But it was his only real weakness during the regular season is he had – In the regular season, he had a 23% pressure to sack rate, which ranked 26. In the playoffs, it is 47% then. It's too many sacks. Versus a four-man rush, which we know Seattle prefers, 58% pressure to sack rate. So this has obviously been an issue for them. I want to post to you, and of course, there's a litany of reasons for why that is. I think the Texans' defense screws with everyone. The Broncos are also very good and got to play in those conditions. How much of it would you put on the left side of the Patriots offensive line in particular struggling versus May either not seeing the field well or defenses playing him differently or not giving him options, particularly throwing downfield as he likes to do? Yeah, I think while the main issue is the left side of the line, the main addressable issue for right now is May just wants too many kill shots, which I think one of the things you see from a lot of young quarterbacks when they enter the league. You think about kind of the first Trevor Lawrence postseason and that bad first half against the Chargers in that second half. You think about even some of the C.J. Stroud game we just saw. But these young quarterbacks walk in, and, man, they want to win the game on one throw. And that's just the intensity of the postseason. May certainly is trying to will open windows downfield. They're just like, hey, we've got to scramble for a second and eight. We've got to check the ball down, throw it away for a second and ten even. Like, let's get back to doing what we did in the regular season. Now, two weeks of a break. Rabel's a very good coach. Mays generally, like, even though he's been a high sack rate player, has generally been a really good decision maker. It's not the sort of thing that I think is going to, like, absolutely lampoon their offense against Seattle. But the thing about Seattle is this defense forces more checkdowns than any defense in football, right? Lowest intended air yards against Seattle. If you're checking it down, you're losing. Right, and especially if you're doing it late in the down because you're like, oh, I want to throw, I want to throw, I want to throw. Okay, fine, I'll check it down. Ernest Jones is already running, dude. Like, Traven Henderson is going to get his cleats knocked off. If you're going to check down against Seattle, you have to do it very, very fast while that second level, that short zone level is still dropping back. Get the ball out quickly and go. And so with Drake, man, like, it's tough because Drake led the league in explosive play rate. Seattle's got, like, the second best explosive play rate allowed in the last 15 years on defense. And so we did just see them give up a ton of explosive plays. And that's the thing. There's one guy who gets explosive passes against them. Yeah, Matthew Stafford. And it's Stafford. And you look at me and you go, man, I hope he'll be Stafford someday. Is he that right now? Do you have those receivers right now where you're that comfortable in the wings? Well, okay, so you brought up a lot of things I want to get to, what happened with Stafford, whether or not they can reproduce any of it, and the Patriots receivers who, the more time I've spent with this team, the more underrated I think they are. But I want to go back to what you said about quick game and the checkdowns and how late in the down if you check down you're losing and whatnot. Because Seattle's defense is interesting. they have it's a little bit of a barbell where versus quick game under two and a half seconds they're 12th and eight paper play then anything in rhythm they're first in every possible margin then if you can extend it drops to 14th again yep so basically you either have to play super fast against them or you have to make plays outside of structure if you're in between that if you're living in the space where more quarterback most quarterbacks live you're not having success which which is to me a sign of an extremely well-coached defense and a scheme to defense where, okay, everything that's according to the chalkboard, we kill you. Things where you're cheating us and you're cheesing us, that's where you get us a little bit. Let's come back to the Stafford thing because I think this is interesting because I went back and I watched all of the explosives, right? I wish there were like, what, nine or something? It was absurd. It was really weird, to be honest. Not weird, but I mean, they gave up more explosive plays, I think, in that game than they have, certainly in a game this year through stretches of the season. So going back and watching them, pretty much all of them were under center play action. And a lot of them versus, and this is coheres with it being under center play action, Seattle would show a split safety structure, rotate to single high, and Stafford was just picking a one-on-one and firing. Just backside, backside, backside. Yes, a lot of Yankee concepts. There's usually some sort of – there's a lot of Seattle getting killed by stuff Seattle does on offense, to be honest. But the thing that I would highlight there is it wasn't really schemed up so much. It wasn't guys were not wide open. A lot of it was receivers winning. Puka beating Devin Witherspoon at the top of his routes. Parkinson beating Josh Jobe on a crosser. Devontae Adams beating Witherspoon. Then Woolen losing on the, I think it was a double move to Puka. The point is it was just Seattle's DVs losing, which brings me back to the Patriots' skill players, right? Like, are they capable of beating Seattle? Because, and this is, of course, like part of the MVP debate, they're not Puka and Devontae Adams. However, they've been good this year. Booty and Diggs are first and second in yards, catch rate over expected. they are the other side of Drake May having this unbelievable tight throw completion rate downfield is those guys catch a lot of 50-50 balls so I guess my question for you is do you think Booty and Diggs and Hollins can beat these Seattle corners if Drake May puts the ball up yeah Diggs no Booty yes Diggs against Witherspoon I think is like whether you're in the slot or you're in the outside I think that Diggs loses that a lot I think Spoon is way too quick I think he's way too physical. Diggs also, I think, to start the year, a lot more downfield juice. I think as you've seen the back half of the year for Diggs, he's looking a lot more like a 31-year-old in terms of some of the explosive ability in the middle of the field. A lot of his success receiving an explosive play, if you go and you watch it, to me is more the schemed-up variety. Like you said, those Rams ones weren't. I just checked, by the way, the Seahawks have given up 53 explosive passes this year. Stafford has 17 of them. Now, obviously, that's over three games. That's cheating, right? But still, that's a good 33%. Puka Nakua himself is like. That's 33% of Seattle's explosives given up all over one quarterback. With that said, Booty on the backside of the verticals interests me, right? When it's Rik Wollin, I think Rik can match him for height, weight, speed. But at the catch point, we know that Rik doesn't necessarily see it that fast. Play it that fast. And then Joe, who I think is technique-wise a lot stronger, is just not the height, weight, speed player. Booty, like, you know, he's a third-year player. He's a sixth-round pick. Like, he's not the sort of name that gets recognized. When you watch them play, and, like, you know, he has a very high-caliber recruit coming out. So this is the sort of guy who with a different name with different draft capital. We would talk about it as like, all right, you know, like field tipping player here. He's fourth in the league in explosive pass rate overall, or catch rate overall, I should say, behind Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, like the typical like hero guys, and then Bowie's right there. So to me, I would expect to see, especially in long and late downs, Patriots get light, try to get to 11 personnel, get that dime personnel on the field. So that way Jobe comes onto the field as the fourth defensive back. We try to go three by one, get Bowie into the boundary. And if you're going to give us one-on-ones there, we're going to take those one-on-ones there. If you're not giving us one-on-ones, now it's three over five to that side and May Supercomputers. Patriots are going 11. That ball's got to come out fast because I don't trust them against. Yeah, you can only chip at one spot if you're going 11 now. Yeah, Booty against Willen is a really interesting one because Booty's such a fascinating player because he's undersized and he's not a separator, but he's a downfield threat because he's so good at tracking the football. He's got great physicality and balance. And then you've got Willen, on the other hand, who has these interesting elite physical tools. I mean, one of his arms is probably half as long as Keyshawn Booty. Big dude. But sometimes he can read things wrong and get beat on double moves. So it's like I think that's a really significant matchup. You think about Patrick Sertan breaking out the pass to Booty down the left sideline in that game. The greatest play a cornerback has ever made in history was so good. You know, in those situations, the Seahawks versus tight – so I mentioned Drake May on tight window throws, unbelievable lead and everything. Seahawks versus tight window throws this year allowed 2.3 yards per attempt. Every Seahawks stat is so stupid, dude. But it's a great – I love that as a strength-on-strength matchup is what I'm saying because I do think both sides are very good at it. And I also just don't think that the Patriots can dink and dunk their way through this. At some point, he's going to have to hit one of those balls downfield when this – he's going to have to beat quarters over the top. And it comes back in the biggest moment. All things come home. I don't know how I feel if he beats it. The dink and dunk point is a really critical one because I think that Josh McDaniels has gotten a ton of love this year, and I understand why. But a lot of what McDaniels calls is like 102 stuff, and it's just Drake being really right really fast in a way that we're still not appropriately giving Drake credit for. He just walked in the league and was like, yes, I played NFL speed with NFL accuracy. It's like Caleb didn't do that. Even Jaden didn't do that. We're just like immediately, we're just on it on every single concept. Like bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, switch, watch, stuff. There are like two defenses in the league you can't do. This against in Seattle is one of them. Where if you try to be that precise down the field, you'll get a couple first downs. But eventually they're going to get a negative on you, right? One of my favorite stats, more insane Seahawks defense stats, Seahawks giving up 29 touchdown drives this regular season. Second lowest in the league, like that's crazy. The average starting field position on those drives is the 41-yard line, right? You have to be so close to the goal line already to score a touchdown on Seattle. Because if you're trying to build these 70-yard, 80-yard drives, there's just too much distance. This defense is too good. So you either have to hit an explosive, they don't allow those, or you have to get a short field. They're so good in the red zone. Patriots' red zone defense, by the way, worst in football. I know, I skipped over that. I know, they've been better, obviously. They haven't been in the red zone. I know, right? Don't worry about it. Goal to go is where they're right there. I really like, too, Seattle, like a lot of stuff they do in offense in the red zone. I think Clint Kubiak's been really good in the red zone. That's so good, dude. Yeah. I mean, he's coming off of his best game. Okay, so I haven't even acknowledged New England's rushing attack. It just seems like such a mismatch. Am I missing anything? Are there opportunities? Are there ways you think they can find to run the ball in Seattle? By the way, hilarious Seahawks stat. Okay, so the Seahawks don't play base. We talked about the Patriots. Patriots win this game. We're a real dumb man. If they score 30, we're going to be in so much trouble. It's been all Seahawks defense. I do think he can throw the ball deep. I really do. And as I mentioned, quick extended plays, there's a possibility there. We haven even gotten to May scrambling which is New England you perk up when we get to that part But the run game is it not a great matchup Seahawks play you know primarily nickel and dime They have a 70% success rate in dime against the run. Do you know how crazy, like that's so crazy. I have a dime stat, let's see. 70%. Yes. 64% out of nickel, which is also crazy. The Seahawks have allowed 5.3 yards per pass attempt this season in dime, which is the second best over the last decade for past defense in time. The 2020 Rams, again, another Brandon Staley comparison, is the only team that's better. This is like, it is, they put six defensive backs on the field and they still have Imman Wari who's a Sam linebacker and Devon Woods, who's just an undersized linebacker. My guy Luke, who came on our show as a researcher for NFL Live, sent me, I thought, a really interesting note that I want to run to you, which is if the Patriots go jumbo, which they do a lot, second half of the season, probably the highest rate or close to it. I have some more staff. I don't know. It's a lot. And they take shots occasionally out of jumbo, which, again, a thing you want to do. But he mentioned if they do go jumbo in this one and they're 21 personnel with the six offensive linemen, one thing some teams have had success with is running away from Iman Worry. Yeah. So, you know, as good as the Seahawks. Is it running away or running two? Running away. Running away. Running away from Iman Worry. you know because he was pointing out how he'll usually align to the passing strength get him locked in there he is so fundamental to their run defense out of those sub packages do you think perhaps because I know to go back to the right they'll be able to run the ball with their bigger bodies on the field so like yes but still at the same time like all right if I go strong right and it's Will Campbell against DeMarcus Lawrence on the weak side or I suppose would be with Chen and Owosu. That's still a neutral to me. Like, that's not all our advantage, right? Like, you said Iman Wari is really the straw that stirs the drink in terms of these light personnel defending the run. You're absolutely right. But it also is defensive ends, right? When they're in, like, first and ten and it's Lawrence and it's Owosu, those dudes are goblins, man. I mean, they are just freakazoids. Lawrence, like, I had a cut-up of Lawrence for a piece I did that comes out tomorrow. Lawrence. He's so good. I'm glad you mentioned that because the edges are such, like, part of the secret sauce of the whole, like, oh, Seattle's so good at defending the run out of nickel and dime. It's easy to forget. So massive. It's easy to forget, but when McDonald first dawned, and we were watching him in Baltimore and we were understanding what he was, the headline was, Mike McDonald defense, you don't need edges. They didn't rush the passer with the edges. So they could put these, again, goblins out. They just got orcs at defensive end, and they can actually two-gap. Demarcus Lawrence slows so many runs down because he just deletes a tight end four yards into the backfield, and the back is to pitter-patter, pitter-patter, pitter-patter, and now I can load my light box up. The reinforcements flow in. I think it can do it. I think Jumbo, take advantage of an award, it's there. But it's not like an overwhelming advantage the way I think May on the scramble might be. It's more of like, all right, this is how we get to neutral. You asked me what, if anything, you feel good about in the running game. I think the Patriots are a heavy-gap power team, which is what I want to be against Seattle. Aggressive front, taking advantage of it. And Seattle's going to run blitz, too. That's how they solve some of their light box issues. And so you might get me on one, but I might get you on another. If I'm away from the blitz, and I've got a counter run going, now we've gotten to the third level there's that and then there's the aspect of just Trayvon Henderson runs a 21 mile per hour play and so it's okay I'm gonna give my guy six seven carries chops at the apple and we're gonna hit him on you know tosses and on counter runs like I say and sit you might have a success rate of 83 you might stop me on five of the six but those six that I get might be 50 yards house call and in a game like this which I expect to be pretty low scoring and low on explosives that can be the difference and so there is a you know home runner strikeout aspect that you know new england's still going to investigate even though down and down they're probably going to be in trouble running the ball all right well may scrambling you alluded to it let's get to that because it's probably the biggest advantage they have on offense it's been the thing that he's done well of course in the postseason but that's not out of the blue drake may has been a very good scrambler since he come into came into the nfl um i sent you this stat i actually already know the stat you have yeah because i was like trying to figure out because I was like, let me just figure out how Seahawks are going to play this. So according to – I think I did this on True Media. The Seahawks have faced only seven design quarterback runs this year. They're just the lowest in the NFL. Like, what, six of them were that Jaden game too? They faced 50 scrambles, which is the highest. Now, a lot of that is because teams are in third and long and the quarterbacks – And the defensive structure is so good, so you have to – You can't throw the ball. They're a little. Went back and watched the Jaden Daniels reps because I was like, they played Murray early in the season, but that was, you know, he's by far the most potent threat. And I told you this, I was shocked by how little they spied him. They didn't play man, and that's notable against dual-threat quarterbacks. They'll play, you know, I think they played man just 12% of the time in that one. Yeah. And that's them also not being worried about Washington's pass catchers, you know, whatever. but I thought for sure there would be somebody with eyes on him. And going back and watching, I was amazed, Ben, by how much they just trusted their zone defense. So I'm going to bring him down. Yeah. And I wonder if there's a degree of like, well, Jaden is so quick that if we spy, we die. Because like Ernest Jones is never going to get there on time, right, once he breaks the pocket. So I wonder you might see a little bit more of it against May, who isn't the same level of like twitch athlete. But I also think, you know, Seattle stunts and twists a lot. And the teams that stunt and twist are often saying, hey, we're going to show you space to take space away. So, you know, it's not going to be so much a spy so much as it's going to be a looping rusher. Right. And a guy was coming from this. And then, like, he operates as a spy for us because we funnel the quarterback one direction. But, yeah, the fact that, like, I find it so interesting that the Seahawks just don't spy. Like, this is not very an effective thing. We're not going to do this. I think, like, again, like. But maybe there's a change up in here. I feel like it's going to be in the game plan, especially with the way May runs. So May is a very different runner from Jane Daniels. May is running through the teeth of your defense. Since he came into the NFL, when he runs between the tackles, he has a 68% first down rate, which is the best of any quarterback in the league. It's very Josh Allen-esque, the way he runs. And so, you know, you're leaning on your defensive tackles a bit, and you're just a trace, and Seattle's very good at that, and they're very stout. But I do wonder if they mix it up a little. Maybe we get some odd mirror. I just feel like this to me is the one thing where I'm like, if I'm Mike McDonald, knowing how this team has struggled in the postseason and the way they've been able to kill defenses, what if I show them something different in terms of how I prepare for the rushing quarterback? I think it's an arrow they'll have in their quiver. I'd be really surprised if it's not. The other aspect of May scrambling that is interesting to me, you brought up upfield between the tackles. I'm gone now. There's also just escapability, right? One of the complaints with May is, okay, he'll stay in the pocket a little too long. he takes these sacks, takes these fumbles. One of the exchanges is when he breaks that sack and he gets outside of structure, he's like first and drop back success rate, second yards per attempt on some of these extended play throws. We talk about a Seahawks defense that has really good structure. Okay, we're going to play zones, and we're going to pass all these things off, and we're going to match. Well, the moment the quarterback goes from being over here to run in that direction, we're in scramble drill rules now, and structure changes. And so, like I talked about, like, Patriots, I don't want you handing the football off. I want you dropping back. It's because I think that if I can get enough, may in the backyard plays like i you know on the chalkboard mike mcdonald and your guys probably have our guys beat a little bit there's a really good unit very talented very good defense on the in the backyard right uh drawing plays in the dirt we have a really really talented quarterback here in terms of throwing the football down the field finding explosives creating explosives with his legs and so to me like there's the may scramble aspect where i'm crossing the line of scrimmage and then there's the extension aspect that also is going to give seattle like you know they played, okay, Brock Purdy, who is kind of good at extending plays. They played a Kyler game. This is a different cat, man. The Seahawks have not played Josh Allen this year, Patrick Mahomes this year, Lamar Jackson. This caliber of thrower when he gets us out of the pocket. Yeah. I think where I come down on this is I feel for the Seahawks to win this game, Sam Darnold just has to be okay. For the Patriots to win this game, Drake May has to be amazing. he was an amazing quarterback this season he was my mvp pick for a reason so it is not outside the realm of possibility but i just think when i go match up for match up person just thinking through each group thinking about seattle's improved ability to run the football over the last couple months thinking about that coaching staff and new england's great it's i i still feel pretty good about seattle here they're yeah they feel like they're cut above for sure it like it's very hard to get the patriots winning this game without the patriots getting short fields which goes to your standpoint like you know sam right sam's just had an unbelievable season and like a great nfc championship game like all right buddy like you've done your work like we'll handle it from here like just do not lampoon us right here right special teams an aspect of that as well right marcus jones and rashid jahid literally the two most explosive punt returners in football so you have field flipping plays there but in general it's if the seahawks defense does not face short fields they don't give up touchdowns and over time like you're gonna wear the Patriots out and you're gonna score a couple touchdowns you're gonna win this thing and so to me it's it's avoiding the negatives from Seattle I think the Patriots can get enough on defense to get a punching chance right and then it becomes right you need that 90th percentile Drake May game that 95th percentile Drake May game man it would be sick to see it would be such a thrill to see right and like the dawn of May and like you know you'd win Super Bowl MVP second year quarterback the future of the league the Seahawks defense is pretty good I don't like I would love to see it there absolutely is a chance but like most likely outcome is is Seahawks do you feel a little better after we're we're at the end now like have I as my right I I feel like like I better handle yes for sure but I do feel like I asked my editor like hey you know all the expert picks for ESPN what's the what's the spread and then like it's 47 Seahawks 11 Patriots it's like 80% people picking Seahawks ESPN to me that number's too big to me like this is more like a like a 65-35 sort of a game so I'm still picking Seahawks, but I will say that the best laid plans of mice and men, all these nice schemes, this and the other thing, man, that guy wearing number 10 might just win the ballgame in a way that the guy wearing number 14 can. And they have a coach who's unbelievable at situational football. This is a game where that tends to matter a lot. This is so nerdy. I'm devastated I'm putting this on the air. I'm really hoping we get good situations in this game because McDonald and Brave are both excellent at it, right? So I'm hoping we get some good analytics discourse. Yeah, I... Like I said, I... I'm not ruling it out. I think my final score was 27-24. Like, it's not crazy. I want to say 16-13 Seahawks over Patriots. Really? You're on low. I think it's going to be 6-3 at halftime for sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That might be the bolder pick. I feel like our biggest difference in this game is I think the Patriots' defense is going to get a lot more negatives, right? I think they're going to give up some chunks for sure, but I think they're going to be able to stop some drives with some 2nd and 20s with some 3rd and 15s. They have – and look, we've seen elite defensive tackles take over games. Chris Jones, Aaron Donald. I like Christian Barmore and Milton Williams. They're not Aaron Jones and Christian Donald – pardon me, Aaron Donald and Chris Jones. Those two guys. And the New England edges just don't. Caleb on chase on? 50 pressures this year? He's been great. He's been great. And the blitz package. I think, like, cumulatively there's enough paths to pressure. Even the tackle thing is the main one, and that's the one that can, like, really flip the game. but there's still, to me, there's still edge presence and there's still presence. I think Kubiak's just been really good at in-game adjustments, too. It's like, you know, we talk about, like, what do you do if they have a JSN? What do you do if they send pressure? What do you do? I've really been impressed by a lot of, not just who he is over the course of the season, but in games, some of the adjustments he's made from quarter to quarter, half to half. Part of why I love that hire, which I haven't even talked about. I'll get to that at some point for Las Vegas. 100%. Yeah, yeah. All right, that's it. Ben Solak. Oh, God, I should make a bigger deal about this. We are going to be live. Yes. after the Super Bowl. I'm so excited. Right after. So you are going to get pure, unfiltered. I can't wait. I'm so pumped. Mina. Because NFL Live is on an hour and a half after the game. So I had a little chunk in between. We're going to tape youtube.com slash at Mina Kimes. It'll go out the next Monday morning. Of course, it's a podcast. If you're listening to this, you can watch it. But you can also tune in right after the game. YouTube.com slash at Mina Kimes. Myself and Ben we'll be there to recap whatever happens see you on the other side buddy i can't wait