Up First from NPR

Tension In Two Ceasefires, Navy Secretary Out, Trump's Slumping Approval

13 min
Apr 23, 20264 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

This episode covers escalating tensions in the Middle East with Iran seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli airstrikes killing a Lebanese journalist, while the Navy Secretary is dismissed amid over 30 Pentagon departures under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. President Trump faces mounting political challenges as his economic approval rating drops, tariff policies are struck down by the Supreme Court, and the Iran war extends beyond his stated timeline ahead of midterm elections.

Insights
  • Pentagon leadership instability under Hegseth (30+ dismissals) coincides with active military operations, creating operational risk and morale concerns
  • Trump's Iran war timeline credibility is eroding as the conflict extends beyond his six-week prediction, undermining voter confidence in his military strategy
  • Economic policy failures (tariff reversals, cost-of-living concerns) are compounding war-related inflation, creating a dual messaging problem for Republicans
  • GOP candidates face difficult midterm positioning as they must address affordability concerns while potentially distancing themselves from Trump's unpopular policies
  • Strategic maritime control in the Strait of Hormuz remains contested despite U.S. blockade claims, with Iran demonstrating willingness to escalate vessel seizures
Trends
Accelerating Pentagon leadership turnover under Trump administration signals potential shift toward loyalty-based military appointments over experienceGeopolitical instability in Middle East (Iran, Lebanon, Israel) creating commodity price volatility affecting domestic economic messagingJudicial pushback on executive policies (Supreme Court tariff ruling, Virginia redistricting block) constraining Trump administration's legislative agendaDeclining economic approval ratings among Republican base signals erosion of core support on kitchen-table issues despite military/foreign policy focusDiplomatic messaging inconsistency between U.S. and Iran creating market uncertainty around sanctions enforcement and oil market stabilityRepublican midterm strategy shifting toward localized messaging on costs rather than national Trump-centric campaignsMilitary-civilian leadership friction emerging as political appointees clash with career defense officials over strategic priorities
People
Michelle Martin
Host of Up First podcast episode covering geopolitical and domestic political developments
Jane Raff
Reported from Amman, Jordan on Iran ship seizures, U.S. blockade efforts, and Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire talks
Greg Meir
Analyzed Navy Secretary John Phelan's dismissal and broader Pentagon leadership turnover under Defense Secretary Pete...
Deepa Shiveram
Discussed Trump's economic approval rating decline, tariff policy failures, and Republican midterm election challenges
John Phelan
Dismissed from Navy Secretary position; was major Trump donor and billionaire businessman with no naval experience
Pete Hegseth
Overseeing 30+ high-level Pentagon dismissals and tensions with Navy Secretary Phelan over shipbuilding strategy
Donald Trump
Central to coverage of Iran war timeline, tariff policy reversals, economic approval decline, and Pentagon leadership...
Caroline Levitt
Defended Iran war strategy and blockade effectiveness despite timeline extensions and voter disapproval
Jack Reed
Criticized Pentagon instability and dysfunction under Trump and Hegseth following Phelan's dismissal
Brendan Steinhauser
Analyzed Trump's political overreach, economic messaging failures, and GOP midterm strategy challenges
Hung Cao
Became acting Navy Secretary following John Phelan's dismissal; previously Navy Undersecretary
Amal Khalil
Killed in Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon during ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict
Quotes
"To be a superpower, a nation must be a sea power. And this is the opening move to strengthen American maritime dominance."
John PhelanNavy Secretary speech on Golden Fleet shipbuilding initiative
"I very much appreciate that Iran and its leaders respected my request as president of the United States"
Donald TrumpStatement on female protesters in Iran
"Another example of the instability and dysfunction that have come to define the Department of Defense under President Trump and Secretary Hegseth."
Jack ReedResponse to Navy Secretary dismissal
"I do think he's probably picked too many fights and he's probably stretched himself very thin."
Brendan SteinhauserAnalysis of Trump's second term challenges
"The cards are in the president's hands and that Trump will decide when the ceasefire is over."
Caroline LevittWhite House Press Secretary on Iran ceasefire timeline
Full Transcript
Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The White House says it's not a ceasefire violation because neither of them was American or Israeli. Meanwhile, a journalist was killed by an Israeli airstrike on Lebanon, even as ambassadors meet today to extend their ceasefire. I'm Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. The Secretary of the Navy is out. It's the latest in more than 30 high-level dismissals at the Pentagon under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. And this one comes as the war in Iran is in its eighth week. Is this level of turnover a problem? And the president's economic approval rating is on a downward turn. The Iran war is two weeks past his own deadline. His tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, and the Republican redistricting push could backfire, too. We'll examine President Trump's political position ahead of fall's midterm elections. Stay with us. We'll give you news you need to start your day. Every story from Shortwave NPR Science Podcast starts with a question. Like, why do we have nightmares? How does AI affect my energy bill? At NPR, we are here for your right to be curious about the world around you. Follow Shortwave wherever you get your podcasts. Because the more you ask, the more interesting the world gets. Iran has tightened control on the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. continues to claim success in its blockade of Iranian ports in the strategic waterway. Iran is still not officially acknowledging a unilateral U.S. ceasefire declared by President Trump. For more, we go to NPR's Jane Arath in Amman Jordan. Jane, hello. Hi, Michelle. So there's been a flurry of competing messages over what's happening in the straits since U.S. warships in the Indian Ocean began efforts to intercept the traffic there. So what do we know about what's going on? Well, Iran yesterday fired on three ships, seizing two of them in the Strait of Hormuz, that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. And it released video with dramatic music swelling, an Iranian gunboat and troops boarding one of the container ships that were taken to Iranian port. It's the first time in this war that they have seized vessels. The U.S. military put out a release noting that it had 10,000 personnel and 17 warships. As part of its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it said it directed 31 vessels to change course since beginning it this month. And it said the majority complied. It wasn't clear what happened to the others. So, well, it seems like that release is an effort to show that the U.S. really still is in charge. But having said that, there do seem to be attempts by the president to de-escalate. Can you tell us about those? Absolutely. Earlier this week, President Trump had threatened to bomb all Iranian bridges and power plants. Yesterday, he wrote that he had been informed that eight female protesters who were to be executed in Iran last night would no longer be killed. He said four were going to be released immediately and four sentenced to short prison terms. And he also said quote I very much appreciate that Iran and its leaders respected my request as president of the United States Very different tone there Iran judiciary though disputed that It said some of those arrested had already been released, some of those women. The others had not been sentenced. And if convicted, they would receive prison sentences rather than death sentences. So there's a parallel war going on in Lebanon between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah. So what's happening with that ceasefire? Yeah, Israeli airstrikes in the south killed at least five people yesterday, including a Lebanese newspaper journalist. Her name was Amal Khalil. She and another journalist were in a vehicle when an Israeli airstrike hit a nearby vehicle. They took refuge in a house. Then that house was hit by Israeli airstrikes. A Lebanese medic said they rescued the wounded journalist with her, but then came under Israeli fire and had to retreat. She died under the rubble. Israel said it was responding to an imminent threat, and the incident was under review. Hezbollah responded to those Israeli attacks with drone and rocket strikes. But this afternoon in Washington, Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are meeting for a second round of talks. Those talks are aimed at extending a truce and paving the way for future talks. That is NPR's Jane Raff and Amman Jordan. Jane, thank you. Thank you. As the naval blockade of Iran continues, the U.S. Secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, has been forced out of his job. This is the latest in a series of high-level dismissals at the Pentagon under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. And it comes at a time when the Navy is playing a key role in the war in Iran. For more on this, we're joined now by NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Meir. Greg, good morning to you. Hi, Michelle. So what does John Phelan's dismissal as Navy secretary mean at a moment when the U.S. is at war? Yeah, John Phelan was the Navy's top civilian leader. It's a very important position, but we should stress he was not part of the military chain of command. He wasn't responsible for any day-to-day operations taking place in the Middle East. His role was the big picture, to oversee the Navy's budget, its personnel, its effort to build more ships, which President Trump considers a top priority. Just the day before his ouster on Tuesday, Phelan spoke at a conference about the Navy's upcoming budget, which calls for building more than 30 new ships, part of what's being called the Golden Fleet. And there's even this talk about a Trump battleship. Part of Phelan's speech was posted on social media saying, quote, to be a superpower, a nation must be a sea power. And this is the opening move to strengthen American maritime dominance. So tell us more about Phelan and why Trump appointed him to this position in the first place. So Phelan has no naval experience, but he did have a relationship with Trump. Phelan was a major donor to Trump during the 2024 presidential campaign. He's a billionaire businessman. He ran an investment firm in Palm Beach. So he was very much part of Trump's in Florida Trump appointed Phelan to the position last year at the start of Trump second term and it unusual though not unprecedented to appoint someone as a service secretary who doesn have relevant military experience. Most often it's someone who has served in the military at some point in his or her life. Did the Pentagon give a reason for his dismissal? No. His abrupt departure was announced in a brief statement on Acts by the Pentagon. It said Phelan was, quote, departing the administration effective immediately. We wish him well in his future endeavors. The Navy's undersecretary, Hung Cao, becomes the acting Navy secretary for the moment. Now, at the official level, that's all we have. But there were signs of tension between Phelan and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. We've seen people around Phelan being dismissed. The issues seem to include personal friction as well as the way the shipbuilding effort was being handled. Now, Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, called Phelan's dismissal, quote, another example of the instability and dysfunction that have come to define the Department of Defense under President Trump and Secretary Hegseth. So what's the bigger picture of turnover at the Pentagon? Yeah, Hegseth has been dismissing senior officials immediately when he arrived at the Pentagon, usually without offering a reason And by one recent count, that number now tops 30, many of them generals and admirals. This has now continued nonstop for well over a year. Earlier this month, the Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George, was forced to retire after a 40-year military career. This reflects Hegseth's stated desire to overhaul the Pentagon leadership. It's certainly not a great optic at a moment when the U.S. is in the middle of this war with Iran, though it seems likely to continue. Hexeth appears to have Trump's full support for now. That's NPR's Greg Meyer. Greg, thank you. Sure thing, Michelle. President Trump is facing an uphill battle on convincing American voters that he has a handle on the war with Iran, and he's having a bad week with his other policies, too. Businesses can now request their money back after his tariff program was rejected by the Supreme Court. Virginians voted in favor of Democrats' push to remake the midterms map there. That's in response to the president's moves elsewhere. And polling shows the president's approval rating on the economy is tanking even further. It's putting the GOP in a tough spot ahead of the midterms in the fall. NPR White House correspondent Deepa Shiram is with us now to talk this through. Good morning, Deepa. Good morning, Michelle. All right. So let's start with Iran. The war is now eight weeks in after the president said it would only last, what, six weeks. So how is the White House trying to explain this? Yeah, I mean, the timeline hasn't exactly been lining up with what the president has said, and he just keeps saying that the war will end soon. Trump extended the ceasefire again this week, and White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt spoke with reporters yesterday. She insisted that the cards are in the president's hands and that Trump will decide when the ceasefire is over, although no details there on when that actually will happen. In the meantime, Levitt emphasized that the administration sees the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as successful and is basically hammering Iran economy Trump has spent a lot of time focusing on this conflict in the last two months He keeps trying to argue why it was necessary But at this point he doesn have much to show for it Voters are consistently unhappy with the war and how Trump has handled it And voters are unhappy with his handling of the economy, too. And, you know, some of that is related to the war because of all that we've been reporting about the Strait of Hormuz, how much oil and commerce goes through there. But on top of that, his tariff policy hasn't gone as planned and neither has redistricting efforts to remake the election map. I mean, it seems, you know, almost like the president's priorities are almost working against him. Yeah, I mean, there was new polling that came out from the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago this week that shows some bad numbers for Trump. His approval rating on the economy has dropped from 38 percent last month down to 30 percent this month. And his approval on specifically the cost of living, Michelle, has lowered even among his own Republican supporters. On tariffs, like you mentioned, Trump spent a lot of time talking up how beneficial his tariffs would be. So now that companies are able to request these refunds, it's another loss for him there. And in Virginia, voters narrowly chose to remake the election map in a way that could favor Democrats in this year's midterms. Though a Virginia state judge blocked the certification of those results on Wednesday. The state has promised to appeal. But on Trump's end, Trump has advocated for red states to try and remake their maps in favor of Republicans. So, yeah, another example here of Trump's plans kind of blowing back against him. I talked to Brendan Steinhauser, who's a Republican strategist and has worked on campaigns in Texas. He said when it comes to Trump's second term, the president may have bitten off more than he can chew. I do think he's probably picked too many fights and he's probably stretched himself very thin. but it's still relatively early in his second term and I think he can right the ship. But obviously he has a lot of headwinds against him. And he says Trump has to find a way to better explain the higher costs that have come from the war. Right now, Steinhauser says Trump isn't really doing that. And where does this all leave Republicans who are facing, you know, a tight midterm election and who need Trump to help them win? Yeah, typically a midterms race after a presidential election does not favor the incumbent party in the White House. And right now, Republicans in competitive seats are in an even tougher spot with how voters are feeling about the economy and Trump. Steinhauser says GOP candidates are going to have to tackle that topic of costs and affordability head on because it's going to be the number one issue in November. And he says when it comes to Trump, some Republicans may even try to avoid talking about him at all. That is. And here's Deepa Shiveram. Deepa, thank you. Thank you. And that's Up First for Thursday, April 23rd. I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ruth Sherlock, Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler, Mohamed Elbardisi, and Lindsay Totti. It was produced by Zia Gbach and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hainas. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow. Thank you.