Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. I'm Amanda Knox, and in the new podcast, Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby, we unpack the story of an unimaginable tragedy that gripped the UK in 2023. But what if we didn't get the whole story? I've just been made to fit. The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapsed. What if the truth was disguised by a story we chose to believe? Oh my God, I think she might be innocent. Listen to Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Clayton Eckerd. In 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor. But here's the thing. Bachelor fans hated him. If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would. That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one-night stand would end in a courtroom. The media is here. This case has gone viral. The dating contract. Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before. I'm Stephanie Young. Listen to Love Trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can scroll the headlines all day and still feel empty. I'm Ben Higgins, and If You Can Hear Me is where culture meets the soul. Honest conversations about identity, loss, purpose, peace, faith, and everything in between. Celebrities, thinkers, everyday people, some have answers, most are still figuring it out. And if you've ever felt like there has to be more to the story, this show is for you. Listen to If You Can Hear Me on my iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How was your first non-football weekend in six months, brother? It was... It was wild. My wife and I went down on Thursday to Philly, as you know. We took the train down from Connecticut, got in right in time to have dinner with our older son, who's at Drexel and is a senior, and went to a great restaurant, went back to the hotel, woke up the next morning, left early, went down to DC. My wife came back to Connecticut. I went to DC and met my younger son. And we went to see the Wizards Lakers game. And it was awesome. Like, you know, we really just wanted to see LeBron before, in case he was retiring this year. And this was a good opportunity to do it. They were up by 40 early in the third quarter. The Lakers were. LeBron was jumping out of the gym like he was 18 years old. Luka had a triple-double in the first half. Well, it was, even for a 40-point blowout, it was freaking wild. And Sunday was the weirdest day. You know, I'm working on this book, but I feel like I'm in decent shape and I've got a little transition moment right now. I watched movies for part of the day. I watched like two, I watched Wolf of Wall Street last night. Like I didn't know what to do with myself. Awesome. I was going to say, it's a great day. I went to San Diego, got away for the weekend. Yeah. Live in the good life. I usually go to Florida and meet up with the boys. But a lot of the pros I know were like, dude, it's kind of cold in Florida. Let's do San Diego instead. So last minute went to san diego went to pb if you don't know that is pacific beach hung out did you surf uh nope saved that for jersey i did not bring a wetsuit with me to uh cali but um no it's just those people are so spoiled going from new jersey eight degrees to people are like bundled up there i was walking around a t-shirt and shorts um it was just so nice to feel the sun but yeah quick trip in and out three days and uh yep right back to work the most surprising thing to me We're going to get into this with our guest and talk about the game, but something shocked me before we came on the air. You went surfing in New Jersey today? Yeah, we had a big storm come through. If people don't realize, we didn't get hit up here in the north, but North Carolina got absolutely hit by a snowstorm. It basically blew off the sea. And those waves, they do go from down the south up to the north. And yeah, we had some big waves up here in Jersey. So I went out and yeah, Chad was shocked to know that a wetsuit could keep you warm, but it's warm enough. Like in five inch thick, it's good enough. It really is incredible. And yeah, I told him I ate it. So I had a rough go of it. Obviously, I'm an old man. Not like the old days where basically if I go out there, I have to catch my breath for about 20 minutes where you can catch a wave because it's it's that rough just getting out there. That's how big the waves are right now. So it's, I don't want to say dangerous, but I told Chad I almost died. So I basically ate one and just paddled right back. And I just basically did, I'm too old for this shit kind of moment. Paddled back and the waves were too big for me. So wasting my time driving down there, but never a bad day you can get in the water. Dude, you're going to have so many more of those moments. I cannot tell you. They happen too regularly now. It's kind of depressing. I had one of those moments where on Friday night, the game ends at 9.30, 10 o'clock, whatever it is. And I'm going back to my hotel because I'm leaving super early the next morning on Saturday. And my kid takes the, what is it, the Metro, I can't remember what it's called in D.C., back out to College Park, you know, because he goes to Maryland. Quick 20, 25 minute ride. he gets back at 10 or 10 30 whatever it is and he was going out that night i'm like settling in couldn't be more comfortable and he's just getting raring to go i'm like i can't do that i haven't been i i couldn't do that when i was 20 i was gonna say you haven't been able to do that in a long time my friend no it's when i it's when i got to use my pre-alcohol which we'll get to this is our tuesday super bowl week preview episode and we do have another very special guest, which we will get to in a minute. But there's been more big news this week, and it's all related to the Super Bowl. I don't know if you were surprised by this, but the Vikings fired their GM, Koisi Adolfo Mensah. And on the surface, it looked like it was completely reactive, almost to Sam Darnold leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, right? Like a team that has so many similarities to the Vikings. And it made many people, including the GM, look back and say, God, could that have been us? Would we have been better off keeping Sam Darnold? Justin Jefferson was quoted in USA Today this week saying, you do look at that and wonder what if, but it seems like it wasn't just the QB mess. It seems he might not have been very popular in the organization. allegedly per story on ESPN.com. Brian Flores was sort of waiting to get some more clarity on the off season before he decided if he was going to stay or go. And then that ESPN story pointed this out, which I didn't even realize because you think about the Vikings as sort of being a successful organization. They've gotten less production out of this GM's four drafts, 172 total starts from players drafted. that's less than all but one NFL team the average NFL team has gotten 368 starts from players drafted over that period I don't know if you saw that at all was that surprising to you I was a little bit surprised by it until I dug it felt reactive to the Super Bowl until I dug a little bit deeper yeah I'm most surprised I thought you're going a different way after you're going to go the big news of Madison Beer and Herbert breaking up but I like that well you could tell because just because he wasn't smiling in any pictures together. So you knew that was going to happen. But no, for this, it's, it had, they can say it was much of the reasons, but it seems like KOC said, we got to keep Darnold. And he said, we're going with JJ. And if that is true to me as an owner, you're that's fireable. You've set our franchise back now, potentially three to four years while the other franchise that got the quarterback is now in the Super Bowl so yeah they can put up a bunch of reasons but I think we're both human enough to know the egos in this business that that just seems like the most logical thing right if if Sam Darnold loses last week maybe he keeps his job but as soon as he won that game I really did I was waiting for this to happen we said it on Sunday night who was the biggest loser who we felt bad for it was like I feel bad for the Vikings because they had that guy in the building the guy it's so hard to find he and he he was on another team this one now so yeah pretty shocking um you know made a great hire in flores and made a great hire in koc so i don't know i guess i guess they need to do it so yeah for for all the the news going on i guess that was probably the biggest right but um yeah it's it's one that's not gonna move the needle too much for me because it's just the the next guy i don't know it's how much power is this man gonna have and it is gonna be able to correct the mistake that is nine jj mccarthy yeah that's it like how do you how do you fix that the other coaching news clint kubiak expected to sign as the raiders head coach love it as soon as the super bowl is over he'll get to coach fernando mendoza whose victory tour continues to be as charming as the entire indiana season there's gonna be a lot of coaching talk after the Super Bowl. I do want to get into the game with our very special guest because he's got a lot of thoughts on what's going on. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe, like this video while you were at it. Also subscribe to Sharper Square, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Let's bring in our guest. Our volume brother, former NFL, personnel man with the Philadelphia Eagles, host of the very popular football podcast, Three and Out, which you can hear on the Volume Podcast Network and watch on Netflix. He can talk for hours about football all by himself, which I want to ask him about, because the only other person I know who can do that is our boss, Colin Cowherd. He will answer all of our questions about the Super Bowl matchup and so much more. Please welcome John Middlecoff, incredibly hydrated. John Middlecoff. Chad, it's a it's an honor. When I got the text, I'm like, damn, I'm getting invited to the big leagues now. So I've been following and listening to you for a long, long time. So fired up, fired up. the gambling world, you know, as a, as a guy that used to sneak into cash Creek casino, I grew up close to, close to Sacramento and Davis, California. And we had this Indian casino and they had black back then you can play like dollar blackjack. I bet you couldn't go in now and it'd be anything under $25 a hand. But I remember my high school buddies would go there like 16, 17 years old. You know, you're supposed to be 18, but you'd steal like 20 bucks from your parents and be like, I'm going to turn this thing into 500 and you'd be out like three hands. You'd have no money and be like, what am I going to do? I just drove out here an hour, but I got the, I got the bug early. And then obviously sports gambling been dabbling since college. So excited. Well, we're glad to have you. We're thrilled you're on to talk about this matchup, especially. I had a question for both you and Simon to start off which is this line has basically settled at four and a half right now And that is off of the Drake May news about his shoulder and the limited practice and then the missing practice. My first question about on the field personnel, situational stuff for you, John, is the line not moving to me is an indication that it doesn't really matter whether you practiced last week or not. But from your point of view, how much do you think the conversations around this injury really matter? Well, we've had some quarterback injuries starting with Stafford, who was like, is it backshot? And then all of a sudden the guy won the MVP. then like I live in a 49er household and oh Sam Darnold's oblique you cannot play with an oblique I remember I'm a Fresno State guy I think Derek Carr got that injury he couldn't throw I'm like they're screwed and then he was like making throw after throw and even Kyle's like yeah with Tortorol kicks in he's completely fine so uh I'm hesitant to uh think this is much you never know I mean it is football I mean injuries do impact players but until I see the guy not being able to function i'm gonna i'm gonna expect drake may as normal simon four and a half it stayed steady it looked like it might hit five for a minute and it's kind of just locked in at four and a half to me what that's saying is basically wise guys know he's fine wise guys know they're being cautious wise guys know he's gonna play is that kind of what you're hearing at this point yeah there was never a doubt he wasn't going to play it was just what's the injury tolerance here um to me it's the nfl everyone's going to get surgery i mean you saw josh allen walking with that boot not even a couple days ago right he he got surgery as soon as he's there everyone knew he was playing with something wrong in his foot so i'm hoping someone in the media does the ultimate test of tossing him something and see if he can broach above his head and catch it to see how hard that shoulder is but um no every everything I've seen it's like he's he's fine so um to me if he is truly injured and it is something he gets surgery in the after season they say afterwards like well he was playing with a torn torn whatever in his shoulder whatever was a serious injury after the fact could happen but as we're talking about leaks I've heard nothing leaking out that it's injured and that everyone in the building saying he's fine and um the number to me though again we can dive We're going to dive so much into the number. This is a number that I don't think they can move, Chad. I think they've kind of backed themselves in the position to this point, the sports books, because they've taken so much Seahawks money. If they do move it off an injury like this, say they did move it to six, double the amount of Seahawks money. The public would feel even more confident about their early bet. And they would come and bet even more because they're saying, Hey, look, we were right on my early bet. Now you're seeing that he might be hurt. That's why the number is moving. So they're kind of stuck in my opinion. I don't think they can move the number at this point because they're already so dug in on the Patriots, right? They desperately need the Patriots. And every Catrain, better I know, they're on the Patriots simply because of that. They're like, well, the house always wins. I'm going to build the house. And it's like the Super Bowl, you can't think that way. The house does not always claim it. If this is a shootout, if this goes over, the spread won't even matter. They'll get destroyed on TDs and everything like that, Chad. So to me, the conversation about the shoulder isn't that much, but it was last week. because he didn't practice, like you said. That was really alarm bells going. I think as the more news has come out from the Patriots' side, it's like, listen, it's not that bad. He's going to play in this game. He'll be fine, and we won't know until it's game time if that's the truth or not. If they're dropping back, Chad, and he's not throwing deep, that's going to be a telltale sign. What's the amount of money bet on the Super Bowl? Because last year set a record, right? I mean, the estimates this year, they're saying from the AGA, legally $1.7 billion. Now, don't forget, there's prediction markets that will skewer that. And it's not apples to apples because prediction markets do it based on volume of trades, not handle of bets. And I can bet $50 on one side and $50 on the other side, and that's $100 in volume, but it's one person betting, right? So it's different metrics. And then think about what's happening globally. Like this morning, a buddy of mine had me on a text chain with his son who's in college and he's in Europe right now. And he went to a sports book in the UK somewhere. And he was able to parlay, which we can't do this in the United States. He was able to parlay like Super Bowl MVP and winning team. And so he was able to get these crazy odds. So who even knows what the total handle is going to be in Europe. But suffice it to say, it's going to be well over a couple billion dollars. It's insanity. That's awesome. Legally. I mean, look, it is awesome. It's obviously speaks to over the past seven years now, almost eight years since legalization of how much sports betting has become ubiquitous within culture and how much the conversation has changed about it. Some people would argue that it's too much, but the numbers never lie, right? The numbers are telling you that even with all the backlash against the betting scandals, against how operators sometimes treat customers, about predatory marketing habits, whatever the case may be, the numbers keep going up every single year. So there's a huge delta between what people have an opinion about and how people are actually acting. And believe you me, this will be a massive conversation in the offseason on this show. There's so much to unpack in this industry about it right now. But to just top off my point about the Super Bowl is don't get too caught up in the spread. Because even last year, the number one biggest bet the sportsbook had was Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown. Exactly. He did not score. Saquon Barkley number two biggest prop was Saquon Barkley over yards that went under so as much as they do care about the spread I keep telling my Catarian friends I'm like guys you can't just blindly bet aside here because you're trying to fade the public they it just is not that big of a markup to them if it's it's a small fish in a big pond the Super Bowl is very unique compared to every other sports week totally someone bet millions of dollars on Saquon to score a touchdown last year hundreds hundreds hundreds John last year oh you're talking the aggregate the total amount of people gambling. I bet you one guy did that a million. There's always that one guy. I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying. Last year, Saquon Barkley props. I remember talking to a bookmaker in New Orleans and he's like, we're not even thinking about the side. All of our liabilities right now are Saquon Barkley props. After that, it was Patrick Mahomes props. After that, it was Travis Kelsey props. The side had nothing to do with it. It's just an interesting way to look at it now, but you had a really interesting conversation with Colin the other day, talking about Sam Darnold. And if we're talking about the Super Bowl, I don't think there's a more important player here. The Seahawks' success or failure will rest on how he performs. And on the show, there was a stat, I think Colin mentioned it, since Darnold started six games for Carolina late in 2022. He's the winningest QB in the NFL ahead of Mahomes, who's played in the last three Super Bowls. Four and two at Carolina was Darnold, one and one in San Francisco, 14 wins in Minnesota, 16 in Seattle. Explain how you see him as becoming a smarter player as he's evolved from the sort of I'm seeing ghosts days in New York. well i i actually thought that game against the rams some of his best plays like we had seen in the playoffs cj stroud for example who they don't run it's not apples to apples the same offense but they do run a lot of boot get them on the move you can be a hero you know the kyle shanahan boot action if that guy the end or the linebacker on the outside doesn't bite and just goes at the quarterback that play is doa right and that you can get in trouble it's you turn around and the guys right in your face and sometimes quarterbacks freak and they like jump and they throw i mean cj straddle was doing that and donald like hit the ground a couple times and just took the sack he had three sacks i think for 25 yard loss so he's averaging like eight yards a sack loss that was smart because he didn't turn the ball over and at one point in time this year right i don't know if he turned the ball over he definitely didn't that last game against the 49ers so like through 16 games he had what led the league in turnovers and 14 picks and a bunch of fumbles i think six so it's like if he plays in this Kubiak Shanahan offense just under control with how their defense is playing and he has the capability right he's got a big arm and he's mobile and not mobile like Lamar Jackson but can scramble to throw which is to me the most valuable thing you can do in the NFL right now because if the play isn't there can you scramble to keep a play alive and then make a play it's I mean Caleb hung his hat on that this year so he's doing that and if he doesn't turn the ball over like they will not lose like to me the only way the patriots win this game is like you'd probably need maybe a pick six or maybe a pick and a fumble like some weird things to happen from him if he plays an efficient game like he did against the ramps it wasn't just out dueling you know i out do they basically play the same game they're both awesome right throwing for 346 yards i think sam was i forget the number was stafford he didn't turn the ball over like and in these games and who knows maybe the Rams game turns out to be closer and more decisive like in the second half a little more on tilt both sides than this game plays out but if it does a lot of Super Bowls all of a sudden you get a little tight it's a little tighter and closer than you think you know a major turnover we've seen in the playoffs they they flip a game you know I when I was in radio we used to be around I we had the A's when I was in the Bay Area and you know the the numbers guy is always like momentum doesn't matter and at bat in october for yoanna sespedes is no different than an bat in the middle of june it's like i don't know i'm mad you feel it you know the momentum in football the sideline like you turn them over like the patriots they've kind of lived off that this year of just their team that like the one thing with seattle like they do got a bunch of swoop players and this is why i actually hammered them this year because they were like plus 500 to win the division it's like guys the rams went 10 and 7 as well last year and while the 49ers aren't going to be as disastrous as they were the previous year the seattle went 10 and 7 too like and if starnold is just solid their defense is going to be better seems going to be pretty good and they've had like down the stretch of the year right their offense wasn't as explosive and he had two weird games against the rams but for the most part i do wonder if we just talk about the evolution like The Jets thing's irrelevant now. Of course. But his evolution in building off the couple games to end the season last year, and then the Rams experience this year, how could he not just have a little more confidence of like, I don't need to force it. I got these guys. He's got a defensive head coach. The Kubiaks and Shanahan's, they aren't blood related. They might as well be cousins, right? I mean, they are in relation to the offense. They all know it like the back of their hand. And this offense is essentially, if it's going well and their defenses are built, which Seattle's is, we're going to have less than 30 attempts. And in those 30 attempts, half of them are going to be layup throws. I mean, throws that you and me could make if we weren't getting pressured or whatever. They're going to be NFL as easy as it gets. And then there's going to be 10% to 20% where you're going to need to make a play. And that's where it can be, you know, everybody throws some picks. Sam can throw some picks. if you make the right play and explosive plays, which he did against the Rams, we'll beat anybody. That's why Shanahan's won all these games. The Packers have won a bunch of games. It is tailor-made for the quarterback. Then if you get a talented guy, which Sam is extremely physically gifted. So if you do have explosive plays down the field, he's not going to have problems hitting those, which he's hitting. So it's like that game he played against the Rams was really, really high level. You know, and coming off the game where he kind of Jimmy Garoppolo did against the 49ers, what he had, 12 completions for $1.20. They had no problem playing that way either. And that's what's scary about a team like Seattle. They could beat you by 20 points with him completing 15 balls. More with John Middlecoff in a sec, but first a quick word from Z Biotics. Only one game left this football season. And Matt, I know you'll be having a great time watching the big game with your friends and family, making bets, pouring plenty of drinks. The Wisconsin way. And before we get to our new sponsor, we've had to choose between a great night of football or a great next day. But that was before we tried pre Z pre probiotic drink is the world first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works when you drink. Alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this product. Just remember to make pre-alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Isn't that right, Matt? That's right. I have a number of friends and family over this weekend pre-alcohol. It's always on the menu before we start serving drinks. Comes in this fancy package, pop it open inside. We've got these little airplane bottles. Shoot it down about an hour before I start drinking. I'm waking up bright eyed, bushy tailed. I have the energy to answer my children's thousands and thousands and thousands of ceaseless questions with the rigor of a 25 year old man. So I highly recommend it. It's been great. Well, listen, I've never felt better waking up to eat seaweed and exercise. Enjoy the biggest game of the season without sacrificing an incredible next day. Start your night with Z Biotics pre-alcohol and wake up clear-headed, focused, and better than ever. Go to zbiotics.com slash sharp or square. Now you'll get a 15% off your first order when you use Sharper Square at checkout. Plus it's backed by a 100% money back guarantee. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. That's zbiotics.com slash sharp or square and use the code sharp or square at checkout for 15% off. What do you do when the headlines don't explain what's happening inside of you? I'm Ben Higgins. And if you can hear me is where culture meets the soul, a place for real conversation. Each episode, I sit down with people from all walks of life, celebrities, thinkers, and everyday folks, and we go deeper than the polished story. We talk about what drives us, what shapes us, and what gives us hope. We get honest about the big stuff. Identity when you don't recognize yourself anymore. Loss that changes you. Purpose when success isn't enough. peace when your mind won't slow down, faith when it's complicated. Some guests have answers. Most are still figuring it out. If you've ever felt like there has to be more to the story, this show is for you. Listen to If You Can Hear Me on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. In 2023, a story gripped the UK, evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict, a villain, a nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox and in the new podcast Doubt the case of Lucy Letby we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was. No voicing of any skepticism or doubt It'll cause so much harm at every single level of the British establishment of this is wrong Listen to Doubt the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world. But in 2017, the FBI got inside. This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall. This MSS officer has no idea the U.S. government is on to him. But the FBI has his chats, texts, emails, even his personal diary. Hear how they got it on The Sixth Bureau podcast. I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question, of his life. And that's a unicorn. No one had ever seen anything like that. It was unbelievable. This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets. Listen to The Sixth Bureau on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Nancy Glass, host of the Burden of Guilt Season 2 podcast. This is a story about a horrendous lie that destroyed two families. Late one night, Bobby Gumpright became the victim of a random crime. He pulls the gun, tells me to lie down on the ground. He identified Jermaine Hudson as the perpetrator. Jermaine was sentenced to 99 years. I'm like, Lord, this can't be real. I thought it was a mistaken identity. The best lie is partial truth. For 22 years, only two people knew the truth. Until a confession changed everything. I was a monster. Listen to Burden of Guilt Season 2 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What have you seen, say even over the last four weeks, where Sam Darnold has been creating fewer turnovers for his team than he was prior in a very weird stretch where it seemed like he was throwing the ball into coverage and turning it over all the time? How much of that is Kubiak adjusting the game plan from what you've seen? How much of that is Darnold making smarter plays and pulling himself back from taking risky throws? Where's the balance here? Because there's clearly been a distinction. And I know for me, as I'm thinking about betting this game, I'm thinking about Darnold being more of what he's done in the past four weeks. You know, we had Evan Abrams on the show, and he pointed out that Darnold has the fourth highest QB rating of anybody in playoff history right now. So going into this Super Bowl, what has been the difference? Is it the game plan? Is it how he's managing the game himself? I do wonder if that second Rams game was also a disaster for him. Yes. He had a couple picks. They were in shambles. And then once that punt return happened, it did lighten the mood. And this is what we talk about momentum on their sideline a little bit. Like it gave them life. And he kind of looked like a different player. And I've always been a big believer. I don't care what you do in life, whether you're playing pro sports or whether you're doing what we do or whether you're selling insurance. For younger people, confidence is a very powerful thing. Like, you can lose it. You feel like you're never going to get it back. And when you've got it, you feel like you ain't ever going to leave. And he had that final drive. And he's parlayed that into playing at a really, really high level. And that final drive was big time. Like if that final drive to win that game on Thursday night had been Mahomes or Josh Allen or Lamar, it would have been like, see, all-time great right here. That's what they do. But it was Sam. It was like, yeah, but he played a crappy game. It's kind of weird. And he has to fight that, right? Like every quarterback that's not, you know, no doubt about it, first ballot Hall of Famer. Like once you're in that, to me, that kind of category of like guy six to like 12, 14, you know, the purdies, the Dax, the golfs, the narrative can come back either way on them at any moment. Like a Josh. Okay. Played a bad game against the, uh, the Broncos. Right. Well, it turns out he had a broken foot and it was like the first really bad game in the playoff. What do you want to do? Bench them? Like, what were we even talking about? Right. I was a huge Peyton Manning fan. He had a lot of bad games. So I think confidence is really big. And I mean, JSN is just an elite player. Now I think the one question is going to be, they're pretty dependent on just, you know, they kind of had some, they just had multiple running backs. Now Charbonnet's out. They're pretty dependent on Kenneth Walker, who has looked exceptional. I think, was it McDonald or Kubiak? Maybe it was John Schneider, said that he's, like, really stepped it up. Like, he does look like playing the guy that I remember at Michigan State that got, what's his name, a contract extension before he blew it. Mel Tucker, $95 million. Mel Tucker, you know, Kenneth Walker looked like Walter Payton that year. So, and he's shown signs. Now, granted, a couple of them are against the 49ers, whose defense is not great. But even last week, I thought the stats weren't reflective to his impact. So to me, it always helps to have a running back in the in the Kubiak system because they will just dump it down, throw it to him a lot. And obviously the tight ends as well. But you got a wide receiver that I mean, Jason made a couple catches in that game. The one out of bounds in the back of the end zone where he leaped. It was like, is that Michael Jordan? I mean, because I had someone. text me like you know he's uh he likes the nfl but he's more casual and he's like how does this was after the game darnold had against the niners when he threw for 120 yards like i feel like i watched sam darnold he throws for less than 200 yards at jsn's like shattering records here how's this how's that up i'm like well some of it was early in the season they banked a bunch of yards but like at any moment he can have puka like lines which he literally just did him and puka were i mean i don't know two of the best players on that field whatever how many days ago now so I think confidence is a huge thing and he's just even the last I I felt like I was the on an island last year the Lions game he was bad right he was he was atrocious Kevin O'Connell was not good in that playoff game it's like you got to help this guy out a little bit he kept calling passes you know Kevin O'Connell is much more McVay is really not Kyle's guy he feels much more like Andy Reid's guy McVay would throw it 50 times a game every game if he could he wants to throw which listen we all have our Kevin O'Connell's a lot like that too Andy Reed would throw it 50 60 times a game every single game if he could it where Kyle Shanahan would run it 50 or 60 times right like most defensive coaches and I think Sam got put in a rough spot in that playoff game and I think that so it felt like two games was like I think Kevin O'Connell's getting a little bit of a pass and you've seen him this year he could turn over the ball I mean that's he's a little bit of a gunslinger. I mean, that's kind of the way he plays. He's not, I don't even, he's not Alex Smith. Like he, but he doesn't have that physical skillset. Like he has an explosive arm and he's made enough plays now the last couple of years where he knows it works. Yeah. I'm right there with you, John. I held last year against Sam Darn. I was one of those people where that Lions game, that Rams game, it just, it stuck in everyone's mind. Cause he played so well. And then the biggest games he didn't that last game against the Rams though, that again, I'd bet them I bet on them as a team I said Chad I couldn't believe that we bet on the Seahawks for a different reason yeah Sam Darnold saved us he had the game of all games against that Rams team and you know I really look at this team just like the Eagles last year where Sam just like Hurts last year he can lose this game for them right if he makes these mistakes like you said he will lose it he plays what you just said just sound football very patient take what it even gives gives them I just can't see the Seahawks as a game they just feel like such a more complete team and And I think of the art of war, right? Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. That's what this game's going to be, right? They got two guys on both sidelines, you know, Vrabel as well. He is going to hopefully, let's say I'm going to make the mistake, and that's when the momentum will flip, which is what happened that Broncos game. The Patriots were dead. The quarterback made the mistake. All the momentum had flipped in that exact point. So I would love to hear you just talk about Vrabel right now because we're getting a lot of love in Seattle. Vrabel is the difference maker, right? He is the reason the Patriots are here where they are. a lot of Drake Maylove, but it is Vrabel. This is a Vrabel defense. Everything about this defense is just such a Vrabel personality. Can you speak on him, how you feel about him as a coach and the confrontation is to a success? Yeah, I mean, I'd feel the biggest bet I've ever made in my gambling career on a football game was the Denver Broncos against Carolina because I had seen that Denver Bronco team. I'd been doing Raiders postgame, so I'd seen it live. In the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl. relative to my income. It was probably the 07 Pats. I bet against them with the Giants because I had seen that week 16 or 17 game that they ended up need that crazy pass for Randy Moss. And I was like this. They match up well 13 points. And I convinced me and my roommate. We like scrounged like $1,500 together and bet it all on the Giants. It was incredible. But I have a lot of conviction in Seattle in this game Like I mean a ton like it wouldn shock me at all if we get one of those Super Bowls where it like 38 just an ass But the Vrabel McDaniels combo makes me pretty nervous I mean, Sean Payton said it after on that fourth down that they went for it, that obviously looking back that he would have kicked the field goal if he would have known. Like, we got the look we wanted, but then what happened? They ran something completely different with the look. Well, while he was never a coach for Belichick, he was one of his key cogs on defense, all those Super Bowl championships where Belichick ran some of like the most famous game plans in the history of the sport. And clearly Mike being now a coach, you know, I mean, was probably on the front lines with Bill and Romeo Cornell discussing this and implementing it with the group with Brewski. I think he looks, you know, like like a Jim Harbaugh or Dan Campbell. And obviously those guys are smart too. And I think it takes away a little bit. I think Mike, when it comes to football is brilliant. Yeah. You know, I mean, brilliant. And you guys might know this. I need to look this up. There can't be in the history of the NFL, a coordinator who has coordinated more offensive or defensive game plans for playoff games than Josh McDaniels feels like this would be like his 40th game. Cause most guys like become a head coach or whatever, but all of his work in the playoffs for how many years now, multiple runs with Tom now back with Drake, and he's not going to get a head coaching job. How many playoff games that guy going to be an OC for? So they're coaching advantage with Mike and his understanding of what it takes in these massive games. Like when Sean said that, it's like, and listen, I'm all for going for it. I've said forever, the movement to go for it. Every human being that's ever watched football on their couch is always screaming at the TV to go for it most of the time. But that was like when you factored in the weather. And then when I heard him say, well, Sean, you would do the same when it comes. Hey, we got the look we wanted on their offense and they ran something different. That's the AFC, NFC. These are the best of the best. And that's what makes me nervous. So if it wasn't, if this was just like a kind of a team out of nowhere with a coach that we didn't have as much like familiarity with. But that's what makes me hesitant to go all in on Seattle, because I think the coaching advantage, Not that the Seattle's at a disadvantage because their coaching is great too, but how good, I mean, variable from a game management standpoint is a freaking genius. You know, I have Stucky on every week and he was saying there was a moment in that game where he subbed and had the guy going slowly off the clock. I mean, he knows the rule book. That was Bill's thing, right? I know the rule book better than you. It's like, what do we all look for in an account? The guy that knows every single loophole that's Bill and that's now Mike. and then Josh is just extremely comfortable that clip of when Drake like looked at him like this is really hard you can tell I mean they're playing this blizzard and Josh like yeah this is supposed to be how many times is Josh down on one knee sat there looking at Tom in that same exact spot that is a huge huge advantage because this team shouldn't be here based on like it's kind of like the commanders last year I would say the Patriots have more talent than that commanders team but it's like this is not your typical Super Bowl roster right I mean this Patriot team in theory is going to be way better in a couple years but they got the coach and they got the coaches you know the combo of I know Vrabel technically doesn't call the defense but I would imagine during the week he's pretty heavily involved sitting there in the room right so that's I think they I think he's a star you know just like and I know the thing ended weird in Tennessee didn't have a quarterback but I watched them with some pretty good teams kick some serious I mean Weren't they the one seat the year that Tannehill threw all those picks? Yeah, this is a great redemption story on both sides with Darnold and the roadmap he's traveled to get to the Super Bowl. And Vrabel, two years removed from pretty unceremoniously getting fired. It feels like the only person who didn't know what a genius Mike Vrabel is was the owner of the Tennessee Titans because what he's done in a year after back-to-back 4-13 seasons for the Patriots is brilliant work, but also it's why everyone was betting on the Patriots preseason. It wasn't because of Drake May. It was because of Mike Vrabel because bettors especially know you look back at that game that the Titans had against the Patriots, which was Tom Brady's last game. Vrabel was using Belichick on Belichick, right? He was calling the timeout. He was taking the penalties. He was finding all the ways to use the clock and burn it down to give them so little opportunity. He did the same thing. He's done that this year. And he's also, talk about momentum. He's taken the right momentum plays at the right time. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida Sportsbook. The biggest Sunday of football season is this weekend. And for games like this, basic bets just don't cut it. That's why Hard Rock Bet is loaded with special props you can't find the rest of the year, score a gami, opening kickoff, Touch back all the bets you need to make every snap matter. So if you haven't signed up with Hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been a better time. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets, a max of 50 bucks. That's right. If you would have won 100 bucks on your bet, make that $200. Plus, you won't want to miss Hard Rock Bet's $7 million big game bonus party. Place a $10 big game parlay and you'll get a share of 7 million in bonus bets, win or lose. Every parlay counts. And the more you place, the bigger your share. I already built mine. Now it's your turn. 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So download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states, must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. John, to your point, Vrabel, how he handled the Broncos game and knew weather was going to be a factor, everybody was saying kick the field goal for Sean Payton on that fourth down. He's the only one who didn't say, I'm going to kick the field goal. And Mike Vrabel took the points in those exact scenarios. And that just shows sort of how smart and connected he is. I think sometimes too, like there are certain individuals, you know, I have, let's just pick a guy. I got 18 years coaching experience. And you'd say, well, Phillip Rivers has none. Guys like Phillip Rivers, guys like Mike Vrabel, their coaching experience was really their playing experience because they were essentially coaches on the field. You know, like, listen, Peyton would not do it. He's not going to put in the hours. But if Peyton really dedicated himself, you know how good he would be at running the offense for a team and just running the team. Great. Tom as well. Like their understanding of implementing these game plans and being around in these high leverage moments, countless times in their career is just something that like it's I was looking at Sean McVay. I saw Sean McVay got extended. So he's been in 16 playoff games as a coach. Like think how many variable games now as a coach and a player. And that's, you know, the bustling, you know, Taylor LeJuan's talked about this before. His advantage when he gets in front of the team is there is not a human being in that room that he can't relate to. The high-paid guy, the practice squad guy, the guy clawed to try to get off special teams. He's seen it all, and he's won at the highest level. It's just he's a pretty – probably a throwback, right? A lot of guys like Ditka and – that used to be a lot of the coaches, right? I was born in the mid-'80s, but guys that had played, and then they just got into it, and they were really good players, and big-time the Packers or the Cowboys. It happens less because these guys make so much money now, but it shows you the power that they have because the advantage they have of just seeing it, because if you're going to get into coaching, it's not like, well, Michael Jordan can't tell you how to play. If you can become a football coach, you have to be able to communicate like, or else you're just not going to do it long. So if you get into it, you're going to be good at it in terms of communication. And then his knowledge is just, he's a stud. I mean, he's, he's, he's an easy guy to enjoy watching. He's a stud. And yet we all think the Seahawks are going to dominate this game. It would be pretty impressive though. If you, if you, if they were to win the game, it'd be like a, his Belichickian moment when I actually feel like the, the key factors in this game are Mike Vrabel and Sam Darnold more than maybe Drake may, because what Mike Vrabel can do if Drake may is healthy and that way he's going to manage this game. I think it's going to put them in the best possible position to keep it close. So we'll see. John Middlecoff, Three and Out. Watch it on Netflix. Listen to it on the Volume Podcast Network. Great stuff, my friend. Thanks for joining us. See you guys. Take it easy. All right. We want to thank John Middlecoff from Three and Out, our volume brother, for coming on the show. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We want to thank John Middlecoff, our volume brother, from Three and Out for coming on the show. We will be back on Thursday. We're going to go deeper into NFL props for the Super Bowl. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also, Donald's from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. The biggest gap in sports is the difference between the winner and the loser of the Super Bowl. The winner, you're world champion. They can never take it away from you. You'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in the file. 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