On this Monday after that big Supreme Court tariff ruling, we'll catch you up on the latest. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Denver, I'm Amy Scott, in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Monday, February 23rd. Good to have you with us. So quick recap. On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court dealt a serious blow to President Trump's economic agenda. A 6-3 majority ruled that the president had overstepped his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs on foreign goods using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEPA, last year. Within hours of the decision Friday, Trump pivoted, announcing a new 10 percent tariff with some exemptions under a different statute, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Then over the weekend, he increased that rate to 15 percent. That new tariff goes into effect at midnight tonight, though unless Congress votes to extend it, it's temporary, expiring in late July. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more now on what to expect. Under Section 122, President Trump has some very specific tariff-imposing powers, says Erica York at the Tax Foundation. The president can issue a proclamation without any investigation required to impose tariffs of up to 15 percent, and those can't last more than 150 days unless Congress approves them. They don't have to be justified by other countries' alleged unfair trade practices, or to protect U.S. national security. The president just has to assert that the U.S. faces a balance-of-payments crisis. These are rate-limited, time-limited tariffs, not a really broad authority like what the president tried to do under IEPA. And they don't vary from country to country, so the Trump administration can't use them to punish certain trading partners. But the new tariffs don't cover everything we import, not by a long shot, says Gary Huffpower at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. This uniform 15% already has some jagged edges. Anything covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement isn't subject to the new tariff. Plus, the president has exempted a lot of specific goods that will not be covered no matter where they come from, like pharmaceuticals, critical minerals. Also, food imports like beef, tomatoes and oranges and products already facing high tariffs to protect U.S. domestic producers like steel, aluminum and motor vehicles. Summing up the new tariff regime, Joe Brusuelas at consulting firm RSM says. for the next 150 days, the average effective tariff rate is going to be somewhere just under 13%. Then after the alleged authority to impose these tariffs expire, it'll be just under 7%. It was more than twice that high until the Supreme Court threw out President Trump's IEPA tariffs last Friday. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace. On Wall Street today, traders were not happy. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. As we've been reporting since the beginning of the Trump tariff, small businesses have borne much of the brunt of higher import costs. For a look at how what's happened in the past three days is affecting some of those businesses, we're going to have three dispatches on the show today. First up is Katie Lazar, general manager of Kane Vineyard and Winery in Napa Valley, California. Last time she was on the program, Lazar told us her company had lost 100 percent, yes, all of its international business, thanks to that first round of tariffs last year. We gave her a call to see if anything's changed. In February, we've attended actually two very important trade shows. The first was an international trade show in Paris called Vine Paris, where there were thousands and thousands of producers. We tried to reestablish our connection with our importers there, and they were unable and unwilling to meet with us at that time. Now, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's dead forever, but it's dead for another year. For importation, we get all of our barrels from France. We get all of our corks from Portugal and much of our bottles from outside of the United States. So unfortunately, those three primary pieces of our business have all been impacted. You're talking about a minimum of 20% increase in costs. The first round of tariffs, there was a slight bit of warning. And so there was a lot of cost sharing across the board. This time, we don't have that time to think and work together. So my expectation is that it will hurt us even more because we don't really know what to expect based upon the way the tariffs are being discussed now, which would be 150 days and then who knows. That was Katie Lazar, general manager of Kane Winery in Napa Valley. so taking a break from tariffs for the moment it's tax filing season and one of the many new items to consider this year is a deduction on interest paid on auto loans for new vehicles To qualify those new vehicles need to have been assembled in the United States There are also income limits The deduction was part of that big tax and spending law enacted last year and it's retroactive to purchases made in 2025. The idea is to ease some costs for consumers while boosting the U.S. auto industry. Marketplace's Nova Sappho has more on how it works and who might benefit. You want to know how expensive it is to buy a new car these days? will join me at a Chevy dealership. Silverado is the most popular. You know, it is the number one selling vehicle. Brett Hedrick, owner of Hedrick's Chevrolet, is showing me the white pickup displayed in a showroom in Clovis, California. The Silverado truck is popular among the construction and farming crews in the area. And it's consistently one of the most purchased vehicles in the United States. You know, it goes from a basic work truck to the midline, which is probably the most popular, to the luxury models. These trucks are priced between $40,000 to above $80,000. The Silverado is assembled in the U.S. It's one of the vehicles that stands to benefit from the auto loan interest deduction included in last year's tax and spending law. It's for new vehicles bought between 2025 and 2028. But so far, Hedrick says the deduction is not on his customers' radars. I don't hear many people ask about it. We've trained our people to be able to answer that question. Hedrick is hopeful that will change. I think what we're going to see is as people get their taxes done, their 25 taxes done this year, we're going to start seeing different questions come up because the accountants are going to say, did you buy a vehicle this year? Because I can write off the interest. In fact, that's exactly the conversation accountant Johan Garcia has had with three of his clients. Garcia owns the Miami-based firm JGCPA and Advisory. They were looking to upgrade their vehicle on a financial planning meeting, and we did a quick analysis, okay, what would be the after-tax cash benefit, right? Garcia says one of his clients did change plans after considering the deduction. The monthly payment was going to be similar whether they leased it or they purchased it, and they decided to purchase it. Great, but still not exactly a big shift in consumer behavior. And that's because for most people, the savings from the deduction will be relatively modest. Andrew Lautz is director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. If you look at standard vehicle price, standard loan, assuming a 20 percent down payment, that translates to anywhere from, you know, a $200 or $300 tax cut for your lower income taxpayers. And topping out at around $700 for those in the middle. The deduction phases out for single taxpayers making more than $100,000 a year and $200,000 for joint filers. I don't think that the industry expects it to be a market mover in and of itself. Jeremy Robb is chief economist at the data and technology firm Cox Automotive. As we calculate the numbers, 30% of vehicles that are sold new in the United States may have consumers that are eligible for some type of this tax deduction. A bigger factor, he says, will be higher refunds people are expected to get this year thanks to a bunch of new tax cuts. And Brett Hedrick at the Chevy dealership says those refunds plus the new interest deduction should add up to new customers. That money burns a hole in people's pocket, you know, especially those people that have been holding off. But, you know, you get an extra two thousand, three thousand dollars. Oh, there's my down payment. Now I can get an affordable payment. but it'll happen. That confidence has Hedrick stocking up, along with other dealerships he knows, in anticipation of a strong spring selling season. I'm Nova Safo for Marketplace. Okay, back to tariffs. Next up in our roundup of businesses affected by the recent news is Todd Adams, the president of Sanitube, a stainless steel tubing manufacturer and distributor based in Lakeland, Florida. Basically, my understanding, you know, we import some from China. The rate on China has gone down. We had a 10% worldwide tariff plus a 10% fentanyl sort of adder penalty for China, 20% total. The new Section 122 tariffs are 15%. 15%. So by my calculations, and I'm not a math whiz, that's a 5% net decrease. In a way, I guess we should be happy, but I'm not going to be celebrating anything because I don't know what tomorrow's going to bring. So I'm not expecting, and I don't really want a decrease. I don't want an increase. I just want to know. I just want some stability. Just tell me it's going to be you know, X amount, just tell me the number. Once again, you know, the uncertainty essentially creates, you know, a risk premium. So we have to just conserve cash for the unexpected. It takes away from initiatives that we, you know, are contemplating growth initiatives, expansion initiatives. You know, we were looking at just last week, I was looking at, you know, another a growth initiative that would create a couple, you know, good, well-paying U.S. jobs. And once again, that's sort of on the sidelines until I at least get some certainty as to where we're going. It'll be interesting to see where we ultimately settle. Todd Adams, president of Sanitube, based in Lakeland, Florida. This is a production of AF living This One of the many outstanding questions in the wake of the Supreme Court tariff ruling is what happens to all that money the government collected while those tariffs were in place Tariffs, as you hear all the time on this program, because it's true, are a tax that is paid by American businesses and consumers. And many consumers are now wondering, will we get any money back? Marketplace's Samantha Fields reports. Alex Niffin is not an economist or a lawyer or a trade expert. But I see the headlines and the headlines tell me that consumers are bearing the significant brunt of it. It being the cost of tariffs. And I can tell you that's what it feels like when I go to the store, the grocery store, etc. And now that the Supreme Court has struck the tariffs down, Niffin, a realtor in Connecticut, is wondering if he will get anything back. It's easier to sort of figure out which businesses got hit with how much tariffs, but then taking that information and then actually figuring out, OK, well, you know, Alex and his family in Fairfield are due X from everything they spent, I think is going to be maddening. Chances are it won't happen, says Justin Wolfer at the University of Michigan. Here's the reality. I bought a T-shirt from Target. I didn't pay the tariff directly. Target imported the T-shirt. Target paid the tariff. So if the courts do require the federal government to unwind all of that and give tariff refunds, Wolfer says they would likely go to whoever paid the government. In this case, Target. Target has no record of the fact that I walked into Target and bought that T-shirt. So he says it's hard to see how the company would turn around and pay customers back for tariff-related price increases. There's also no guarantee businesses will get refunds. Mitchell Spitzik owns Little Things Toy Store in Brooklyn, New York, and he's skeptical. I don't see it ever happening. Spitzik imports about 90% of the toys and games he sells, much of it from China. And he has raised prices on lots of things because of tariffs. We would probably reduce prices in some way if we received some tariff money back. We can't get back to the customers on that end. He says lowering prices going forward would be the only way to do it. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace. Coming up. I'm probably set with babies and then with a wait list for three years. That's a lot of babies. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 821 points, one and two thirds percent to close at 48,804. The Nasdaq dropped 258 points, 1 and 1 tenth percent, to finish at 22,627. And the S&P 500 fell 71 points, 1 percent, and at 6837. As I said, traders not happy on this day of more trade and AI anxiety. IBM shares sank today after Anthropic announced that its flawed code tool could quickly modernize the programming language used by IBM's computers. International business machines tanked 13 and one-tenths percent. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10-year T-note fell to 4.03 percent. Flight to safety and all that? You're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. The transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy depends on batteries to store the power produced by the wind and sun for use when the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining. And despite some challenges like tariffs and shifting federal energy policy that favors fossil fuels, U.S. battery storage is expected to grow by more than 20 percent this year. That's one estimate from a new report by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and the Solar Energy Industries Association. As Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval reports, it all comes down to our seemingly insatiable appetite for more electricity. For the lights to stay on, electricity supply and demand must always be balanced. But maintaining that balance today comes with challenges. Mark Dyson is with RMI. The demand for electricity is growing overall, driven by the growth of data centers. We're also seeing aging grid infrastructure have increasing impacts. And electricity prices are rising across the board. He says batteries are uniquely suited to address these problems. I like to think of them as a Swiss Army knife. For one, when paired with solar, it's a rapid and cost-effective way to generate new electricity, says Jeff Hebertson with Reistat Energy. We have seen a lot of cases, especially when you get to scale, that a solar plus storage will still be the cheapest form of electricity. Tariffs did throw a wrench in that, since a lot of batteries come from China. But John Murray with S&P Global Energy says that supply chain is evolving. We kind of saw a change in thinking, especially among some of the South Korean manufacturers in the U.S., where they're making a pivot from EV batteries to utility-scale energy storage. And while policies are less favorable to solar development today, which goes hand-in-hand with batteries, Stephanie Bosch with the Solar Energy Industries Association is bullish on battery storage. The economics of storage are going to continue to drive growth. Economics that are driven from a pretty basic principle, buy low and sell high. Dan Kaffeen is with the University of Colorado Boulder. They're going to charge the battery when prices are low and they're going to sell that power when prices are high. Arbitrage keeps batteries viable Often that means charging the battery when there tons of sun shining and selling back to the grid as the sun goes down I Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace Last up in our tariff dispatch roundup, we're checking in with Beth Benecke. She's the CEO of Busy Baby in Minnesota, which makes silicone, baby mats and toys. I'm still feeling a lot of relief. I didn't realize how much pressure the Supreme Court decision had was like weighing on me until the moment I saw the news that the tariffs were ruled illegal and I felt a thousand pounds just like come off of my chest. Even though we know there's more tariffs coming, they have limits, they have more guidelines around them. I know now that I can place an educated order, take a measured risk, and I'm not going to wake up and have 145% tariffs next week. There is so much uncertainty around the refunds. However, we do know that it's going to take legal action. And so I'm working with the Main Street Alliance and some really, really incredible lawyers who are going to help me and other small businesses fight to get our refunds back. I mean, I've paid $50,000 in refunds so far this year. That's a significant amount of money that I can reinvest back into my business. I'm feeling more optimistic than I was a week ago. We're still hanging on by a thread. I still have a big fight ahead to stay in business, to stay afloat. I am probably going to lose my warehouse property. There's still some financial struggles, but I do feel more optimistic for a brighter future and that we are going to come out on the other side of this at some point. That's Beth Benecke, CEO of Busy Baby in Minnesota. Remember the great resignation, that period during the pandemic when employers were hiring like mad and lots of workers were leaving for better paying jobs? They had good reason. According to data from the payroll company ADP, where our occasional collaborator Neela Richardson is chief economist, back in the first half of 2022, people who left their jobs for another earned 8% more annually than those who stayed put. Those days are long gone. ADP says now that pay premium for making a move is less than 2%. Some are calling today's labor market vibe the great stay. Marketplace's Kaylee Wells explains what's causing it. This is another classic case of supply and demand. The supply of available jobs is lower than it used to be, so employers can pay lower salaries for the open jobs still out there. That's what people call the frozen labor market or the great stay. If you find something, it's not going to pay much more than what you currently are. It might even pay less. Guy Berger at labor market research organization, the Burning Glass Institute, says employers aren't hiring or firing much these days. So if you like your current job, you're going to be hugging it. You're going to be holding on to your life. You're not going to be at very high risk of being laid off. But if you want something else, you're not going to get much of a pay premium by switching if you manage to find something. Thing is, this 2% gap between salary increases for job switchers over job stayers, really not all that uncommon. And overall, wage growth rates are still higher than they were in, say, the early 2010s, says Preston Moy, senior economist of the advocacy think tank Employ America. They're pretty comparable to what we saw right before 2020, which is highly regarded as sort of like a time of full employment. But people right now aren't exactly comparing this labor market to the one before the pandemic. Economist Felix Saidala with the Indeed Hiring Lab gives two reasons for that. One... We're seeing a loss in negotiating power across the board. Like, wage growth has been declining for both groups. Stayers and switchers. The gap is shrinking because of smaller wage gains for the latter. That feels bad. And number two... I think it feels worse because right now the people who are switching jobs are disproportionately people who would not like to be. Because they're more likely seeking work after being laid off, and they're having a harder time landing a job they want. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace. This final note on the way out today, we've reported on the dozens of lawsuits brought by cities and states trying to hold oil and gas companies accountable for damage caused by climate change. Well, today, the U.S. Supreme Court says it will review one of those cases. A 2018 lawsuit brought by the city and county of Boulder here in Colorado accused ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy of violating state law by intentionally misleading the public about the dangers of burning fossil fuels and asked the companies to help pay for the damage. The two companies asked the Supreme Court to weigh in, hoping the conservative majority will put a stop to litigation, seeking billions of dollars in damages. Amir Bhabawi, Caitlin Esch, John Gordon, Noya Carr and Stephanie Seek are the Marketplace editing staff. Kelly Silvera is the news director. And I'm Amy Scott. Hope to see you back here tomorrow. This is APN.
