Up First from NPR

Partial Drawdown In Minnesota, NPR Poll: Trump and ICE, Nuclear Treaty Expires

13 min
Feb 5, 20262 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The Trump administration is partially withdrawing ICE agents from Minnesota following public backlash over fatal shootings, with 65% of Americans now disapproving of ICE operations. Meanwhile, the last major nuclear arms treaty between the US and Russia expires today, raising concerns about a new global arms race.

Insights
  • Immigration enforcement, traditionally Trump's strongest political issue, has become a vulnerability with two-thirds disapproval after visible operational chaos and civilian deaths
  • The administration is adjusting rhetoric and tactics in response to polling data, suggesting political vulnerability despite Trump's typical resistance to policy changes
  • Local law enforcement cooperation is critical to federal immigration enforcement, but jurisdictions are negotiating terms and demanding accountability before expanding detention practices
  • The collapse of nuclear arms control creates strategic uncertainty as both superpowers prepare for worst-case scenarios without transparency mechanisms
  • Public priorities (lowering prices, economy) diverge sharply from media coverage (ICE operations, Greenland threats), indicating potential messaging disconnect
Trends
Shift in public perception of immigration enforcement from strength to liability for Trump administrationIncreased local government resistance to federal immigration enforcement without judicial warrantsGrowing arms race risk as nuclear powers abandon transparency and verification frameworksDeclining presidential approval on foreign policy (37%) amid controversial territorial and military threatsEconomic concerns (tariffs, inflation) remain public priority despite media focus on other issuesAdministrative policy reversals driven by polling data rather than legislative pressureExpansion of ICE operations to multiple states creating resource allocation challengesErosion of Cold War-era international agreements and trust-based diplomacy models
Topics
ICE Enforcement Operations and DrawdownImmigration Detention and Local Jail CooperationPublic Opinion Polling on Immigration EnforcementFederal Agent Accountability and Civilian DeathsNuclear Arms Control Treaty ExpirationUS-Russia Strategic RelationsPresidential Approval RatingsTariff Economic ImpactNATO Alliance PerceptionAdministrative Detainer PoliciesState and Local Immigration CooperationForeign Policy Approval MetricsArms Race Risk Assessment
People
Tom Holman
White House border official announcing 700 federal agent withdrawal from Minnesota and negotiating state/local cooper...
Renee Mackling Good
U.S. citizen killed by ICE agent in Minnesota, central to public backlash against federal immigration enforcement ope...
Alex Freddie
U.S. citizen killed by ICE agent in Minnesota; VP Vance refused to apologize for amplifying false claims about him
Sheriff Dawna Kaufmann
Hennepin County Sheriff negotiating with federal authorities on immigration detention policies and judicial warrant r...
Keith Ellison
Minnesota Attorney General calling ICE drawdown a step in right direction but insufficient
Jacob Frey
Minneapolis Mayor calling for end to ICE surge, describing impact as catastrophic for residents and businesses
Greg Bovino
ICE official reassigned by Trump administration following Minnesota operations and public backlash
Donald Trump
President adjusting immigration enforcement rhetoric after public backlash, claiming to learn from response
JD Vance
Vice President refusing to apologize for amplifying false claims about ICE shooting victim
Vladimir Putin
Russian President offering to continue observing nuclear treaty limits if US agrees, suspended participation in 2023
Dmitri Medvedev
Former Russian Prime Minister during 2010 New Start treaty negotiations under Obama administration
Barack Obama
Former President who signed New Start nuclear treaty with Russia in 2010
Dmitri Simes
Premakov Institute analyst warning that arms race is coming without New Start treaty verification
Quotes
"I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of soft to touch, but you still have to be tough."
Donald TrumpEarly in episode
"You're going to have to show me how it's going to make Hennepin County resident safer. And you're going to have to actually act good on what you say."
Sheriff Dawna KaufmannMid-episode
"There are still thousands of masked, unaccountable agents terrorizing the community."
Minnesota faith, labor and community groups coalitionMid-episode
"Both countries will plan for the worst case scenario. And the worst case scenario is always your adversary is capable of major tricks and you need tenfold of what you have right now."
Dmitri Simes, Premakov InstituteFinal segment
Full Transcript
700 federal agents are leaving Minnesota. The agents who remain want more access to a local jail. Does the administration have a plan for immigration enforcement with less chaos? I'm Laila Faudel, that's Stephen Skepen. This is up first from NPR News. Surveys used to show that border enforcement was the president's strongest issue. Now that Americans see how the administration is operating two-thirds and disapprove, even the president said, briefly, that he learned from the public response. I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of soft to touch, but you still have to be tough. Also, the last major nuclear arms treaty between the US and Russia expires today. What happens now? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe. You can send, spend, and receive an up to 40 currencies with only a few simple tabs. Be smart, get Wise. Download the Wise app today or visit Wise.com. Tees & Seas Apply. White House borders are Tom Holman says 700 federal agents will be leaving Minnesota. It's the beginning of a retreat from a state where federal agents confronted protesters and killed two Americans. But most agents that were brought in are still there, and Holman says any further drawdown would depend on state and local cooperation. Let's talk about that with NPR's Megan, or Sunwhos in Minneapolis. Megan Morning. Good morning. How much is really changing? Yeah, so the numbers don't point to a big change. It still leaves around 23 hundred federal agents here. That's still more than the combined Twin Cities police force. It's more than the number they originally brought in before Renee McClend. Good was killed by a nice agent. Holman did say he wants to see the presence of ICE officers in the state. Go back to what it was before the surge began. He said he wants that partly because ICE has plans for operations in other parts of the country. We got agents here from LA in New York and Portland. There's problems there too. So we want to get people back to home station and forced immigration laws in those areas. Holman specifically zeroed in on the cooperation of sheriffs. That makes sense. Sheriffs run county jails in around the country. They've played a key role in holding a document in immigrants for ICE. Okay, so he wants more state and local cooperation. But I feel we have to talk about this. Federal authorities have complained that state and local officials do not turn over people with deportation orders who turn up in jails or who are convicted of something or in prison. State authorities say that's not true. Actually, they do cooperate and the feds pretend they don't. The states turning over people from prison and from many jails. But there was one big jail that limited its cooperation up to now. What do you hear from them? So I spoke with that jail system. I spoke with Hennepin County Sheriff to want to wit. That's the county that includes Minneapolis. And she said she has had, quote, healthy conversations with Holman. She expects them to continue. And she stressed that, you know, if ICE has a signed judicial warrant for someone in her jail, her officers do already honor those. Like you said, but often ICE does not have that. And so wit is required by law to release those people. Jail is pretrial detention, right? You can't hold those people indefinitely. She also said to her office, he does not honor administrative detainers. That's when ICE asks a jailed Holman, but doesn't have that warrant signed by a judge. But Sheriff wit told me she's considering changing that policy. If that were to change, and that's a if, right? You're going to have to show me how it's going to make Hennepin County resident safer. And you're going to have to actually act good on what you say. You know, she said these are ongoing negotiations and no one is going to get everything they want. Okay. So she says she is open to a change in course. How are other local leaders responding to the new leadership, at least in Minnesota from immigration authorities? Right. So the consensus so far is that this drawdown is progress, but it's not enough. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison called it a step in the right direction, but that the surge needs and Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frye, also called for it to end, saying it's been catastrophic for residents and businesses, a coalition of Minnesota faith labor and other community groups dismissed the announcement in a statement. They said there are still thousands of, quote, masked, unaccountable agents terrorizing the community. And you know, it is very much still an emergency here for many people, people who are not white are carrying their passports around. Immigrants are sheltering in place. Children are not going to school. And Pierce Meg Anderson in Minneapolis, thanks for the update. Really appreciate it. You're welcome. 65% of Americans, 65% say immigration customs enforcement has gone too far. That is according to a poll released today by NPR PBS News and Marist. This increased concern about ice comes on the heels of the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens in Minnesota at the hands of federal immigration agents. And Pierce, senior political editor and correspondent, Dominico Montanaro takes us through the numbers very often. And once again this morning, Dominico, good morning. Hey there. Two thirds of Americans disagree with the administration. That sounds like a lot. Yeah, I mean, that's jumped double digits from last summer. You know, on something that really used to be Trump's strongest issue here, immigration. So, you know, no surprise we've seen changes from the Trump administration. Trump reassigned Greg Bovino, who was in charge of operations in Minnesota. The administration is now pulling 700 agents from the state as well. And there's been a different tone. I mean, he was Trump yesterday with a decidedly different tone in an interview with NBC News after being asked what he'd learned from Minneapolis. I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of soft to touch, but you still have to be tough. These are criminals. We're dealing with really hard criminals. So he's not completely backing down there from the tough rhetoric. I mean, despite neither American who was killed, Renee Mackling, good or Alex, Freddie meeting Trump's description of criminals. And his vice president, JD Vance yesterday refused to apologize to Freddie's family for amplifying claims, countered by video that Freddie was a cool would be assassin. But Trump's tone is a definite adjustment. And it's pretty rare to hear him reflect and even give an aota of admitting a mistake. Even if he effectively took it back in the next phrase. Yeah. How are people viewing the president's job overall? It's really low. I mean, his approval is overall is just 39% with 30% of independence approving. And they're always key in those swing districts. His approval rating has now been below 40% in the mayor's polls since November on the economy, which is what got Trump reelected in the first place. 6 and 10 disapprove. Trump's tariffs are playing a big part in that. I'm a majority think that they're hurting the economy and far and away. People say Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. And yet what's gotten the most buzz and dominated the news and headlines over the past month, ice, military action, and Venezuela and Trump's threats to take over Greenland. Oh, I'm glad you mentioned that. How are people viewing the president's foreign policy threats on Greenland and everything else? Only 37% are approving of his handling of foreign policy. You know, when it comes to Venezuela and Greenland, a solid majority say the president should have to go to Congress before taking military action, almost seven in 10 opposed the idea of taking over Greenland. And that repeated threat was upsetting NATO allies and led to a decline in the stock market. Overall, when it comes to NATO, two thirds in this poll say that the US has benefited from that alliance. So, you know, with all of that, you can see maybe why Trump backed off from those Greenland threats. The president backed off, but also said that taking over Greenland was a popular idea. Do they know something we don't? You know, I like to say that you don't have to believe the polls, watch what politicians do. And for someone like Trump, who usually caters to his base and rarely dials things back, these shifts are pretty significant. And it shows the reality that aside from Republicans who've steadfastly stood by Trump, these policies and actions over the past month have been wildly unpopular. And what has been revealed here is that underneath all the lies and boasts and threats to sue the pollsters, President's actions tell us that he and the White House see that he's in a real vulnerable position here. And PR's Dominican Montenoro, thanks so much. You're welcome. The last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia expires today. The strategic arms reduction treaty, known as New Start, put limits on the nuclear arsenals of the former Cold War superpowers and its demise has raised fears of a new global arms race. And PR's Russia correspondent Charles Mainz is on the line from Moscow. Hey, they're Charles. Morning. What did start actually do? Well, you know, New Start was signed in 2010 by President Obama at a time when his message of hope and change included resetting relations with Moscow. You know, this was also a period when Vladimir Putin had at least nominally given up the Russian presidency to his prime minister, Dimitri Medvedev, who was then seen as something of a liberal modernizer. And the treaty itself, you know, it capped nuclear warheads for both Russia and the US at 1,550 a piece. It also critically allowed for each country to carry out regular onsite inspections of each other's nuclear facilities. So it really was built on the same trust but verify formula that was baked into early arms control agreements with Russia and the USSR, and none of which now exists. The New Start was the last. Okay, so each country still had enough weapons ready to incinerate the planet if necessary, but they were trying to make things regular, trying to make things transparent, a little bit more calm. How are people responding where you are in Moscow to this treaty going away? Well, officially Russia was trying to keep the treaty alive into the last minute. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to de facto continue to observe the limits of the treaty for a year. That was if Washington agreed to do the same. The idea being that it would allow negotiators to work out a new agreement. But President Trump didn't see all that interested. A White House official told NPR Trump had his own timeline when it came to nuclear security. The Kremlin meanwhile is warning that without New Start we're entering into a more dangerous world. And many arms control experts agree. Dimitri's the phon of itch of the Premakov Institute here in Moscow tells me that an arms race won't start tomorrow. But without New Start, it's coming. Both countries will plan for the worst case scenario. And the worst case scenario is always your adversary is capable of major tricks and you need tenfold of what you have right now to somehow hedge against such an possibility. And this is where we are heading. Other than hearing that the President of the United States was not that interested in the treaty, I don't understand where things went wrong here. Well, you know, there were always accusations that one side or the other wasn't living by the letter of the agreement, particularly as both the US and Russia developed next-generation conventional weapons that could be retrofitted as nuclear capable. The COVID pandemic, frankly, didn't help. It saw the suspension of inspections. But Steve the real nail in the coffin was Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With the clock ticking on New Start, Russia refused to engage the then-byed administration on arms control negotiations because the US was supporting Ukraine militarily. In fact, Putin suspended Russia's participation in the treaty as a result in 2023. Oh, that's helpful context. So what is the US proposing now? Well, Trump says he wants limits on nuclear weapons, but that New Start is just outdated, particularly in a world where you have new emerging nuclear powers like China. So Trump's looking for a better deal in his words. But even there, Moscow's view is well then okay, let's talk about caps on the arsenals of other nuclear powers like the UK or France. Meanwhile, we have Pakistan, India, North Korea. So this gets unwieldy very quickly. And meanwhile, the fact is that Russia and the US have close to 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. So their leadership or lack thereof on this issue really matters. Charles Mainz in Moscow, thanks so much. Thank you. And that's it for this Thursday February 5th. I'm Steve Inskeep. And I'm Leyla Faldin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Eric Westerveld, Dana Farrington, Robbie Griffiths, Muhammad and Badecy and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziyad Budge and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Avett. And our technical director is Carly Strange, our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us again tomorrow. Are you on tomorrow, Leyla? I am. Are you on? Then I will join you. Okay, good, good, good, good.