Hello and welcome to the Airline Weekly Lounge. I'm your host Gordon Smith and I'm joined as usual by co-host Jay Shabbat. In this week's show we're taking two of the most interesting names in U.S. aviation, that's Alaska Airlines and Spirit. All right, Gordon, how are you? Doing really, really well. I feel like we say every week it's busy, but it's especially busy. I think we always assume it couldn't possibly get any busier, any more frantic, but I think the past seven days since we recorded last have shown that, yes, it can. Maybe a little bit above average. I'll say, yeah. If we had a little gauge, it would be, I think, tipping into the orange, if not the red zone, Jay. A lot of elements that we can discuss, a lot of elements that we could discuss in today's show, but we picked out two airlines in particular for a little bit of a detailed explainer spirit airlines and alaska alaska we had the earnings results out of them last night as we're recording here april 21st we get onto them in a just a little bit but first we want to touch on spirit because it feels like you know how far back do you want to go years really the word spirit has always been attached to some sort of drama be it formal bankruptcy or be a general chatter around the longevity of the brand. We have had some pretty sobering developments in the past few days, some reports of varying degrees of seriousness. The mood music generally is the same though, that this airline is not in great shape. Give our listeners, give our viewers a quick update on where we are as things stand with the big caveat that this is a potentially quite fast moving story. I'm sorry to do this to you, Gordon, but I'm going to make a baseball reference here i know some of our listeners will understand my reference here but uh some of our listeners know that i am uh i don't know i don't have a bag to put over my head here but i am a new york mets fan and the mets as as we speak today it's uh april the 21st on tuesday the mets have lost 11 consecutive games and their season looks like it might be over one month into a what is it a six, seven month season. What does it have to do with Spirit? Well, I kind of think of Spirit as kind of the New York Mets of the airline industry right now. Their existence might be over. And that's after losing, not games, but a whole lot of money. And I'll be very specific. In the past four years, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, Spirit has accumulated operating losses of $2.1 billion. Just in the last year alone, I have to peek at the number here, but in 2025, their loss was $896 million at the operating level. That was a negative 24% operating margin. Gordon, as you know, we're going to run in our Airline Weekly Newsletter for the upcoming issue, we're going to run what we call our earnings scoreboard for pretty much every airline in the world that reports their sales. we're going to rank them. And at the very, very bottom with that negative 24% figure is Spirit. So as you mentioned before, Spirit has tried one bankruptcy that didn't work, tried another bankruptcy. They were just about ready to exit bankruptcy. They had a turnaround plan, cut their costs, renegotiated their contracts, sliced some debt off their balance sheet. And lo and behold, fuel prices skyrocket. And their creditors, who essentially, anybody that Spirit owes money to and who are essentially in charge of the airline, they're in the driver's seat in a bankruptcy. That's how it works. Creditors are starting to think maybe this business might be worth more dead than alive. So we saw this week, and thanks to our colleague Meghna, who sent me document and discovered this from the bankruptcy proceedings that Spirit's creditors actually ran a liquidation analysis, which doesn't mean that that's necessarily the option that they'll choose, but they are certainly looking at the possibility of liquidation, which simply means holding a garage sale, basically, selling off the airplane, selling off the real estate, selling off whatever assets spirit has. So there probably are some creditors that think that might be the best option. Others are maybe holding out hope that, well, maybe fuel prices go down and see what happens. And then as you know, I'll turn it back to you, Gordon, but we have a possible alternative scenario now in the mix. Well, yes. None other than President Donald Trump was on CNBC's Squawk Box, this morning as we're recording here. And he was asked more broadly around the rumors that have since been shot down by American Airlines around a possible mega merger that was reportedly floated by Scott Kirby to high levels of government in late February. We discussed that in last week's podcast. Go back and listen to that if you are not familiar. But President Trump was on Scott for the best part of 35 minutes. And I don't know. I used to work in broadcast TV. If you had the president phone up and say, I'm happy to speak about anything, or even if he wanted to speak about whatever he wanted to speak about, I would clear the schedules and just let it run and run and run. So I do wonder whether they were like, I don't know how long we've got with him, whether it's going to be a two-minute soundbite or whether he's going to rant and ramble. But yeah, I bet there was some very happy faces at CNBC. Anyway, he was asked later on in the conversation, obviously Iran and some other much more important geopolitical issues took the front line of the questions. But I'm about 25 minutes in. There were some more nuanced questions coming in there. And one of them was around the merger talk or the mega merger talk or whatever you want to call it, rumors, whatever you want to call it. And he said here, quote, I don't mind mergers. I would love someone to buy spirit. For example, spirit's in trouble. It's 14,000 jobs. Maybe the federal government should help that one out, quote unquote. That's from President Trump himself within the past few hours, Jay. What did you make of that when you heard it? Well, that follows a report by, I think I saw it in both the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. I apologize. I don't know exactly who broke that story. Our own Meghna has written a lot about this as well. The possibility that the government may indeed step in, or at least that Spirit reportedly is asking for help. I think I also saw something to the effect of multiple low-cost carriers in the U.S., perhaps maybe even some non-low-cost carriers, asking for some sort of help to deal with the fuel inflation, much like the government stepped in to help during the COVID crisis. That was, of course, a much more severe crisis and one that required a very, very large dose of federal help. help. Sorry to jump in, Jay, but that was for, correct me if I'm wrong, that was for almost all carriers that wanted it. This is specifically a package for low-cost carriers or ultra-low-cost carriers? We don't know. I mean, the report that I saw was, I think, low-cost carriers where a few of them were banding together, but we don't know. It could be Airlines for America working behind the scenes. It could be who knows who's talking to whom. But if Spirit is perhaps asking, it was interesting that the president, you know, made those comments. I think I wrote the quote down that you just said here is maybe the federal government should help that one out. So that's, you know, one possible scenario now is that spirit survives. He kind of is the federal government though, isn't he? Well, he's supposed to be one member of the federal government with certain allocated powers. You know, what exactly those powers are may be redefined, but being redefined But we leave that to the courts and to the other powers that be So I don know what extent he will exercise which specific powers or whether Congress would have to get involved or whatnot But it could be I mean to your point, I don't think Congress was involved when Washington purchased an equity stake in Intel. Remember the big semiconductor company that was having some strategic issues and Washington stepped in and the federal government, as we speak, owns a piece of Intel. I don't think that's changed since I last checked. So, you know, is Uncle Sam going to be a shareholder of Spirit Airlines? That's not how I thought capitalism was supposed to work, but you never know. That brings me perfectly onto my counterpoint. certainly from this side of the Atlantic, looking in and certainly considering the color of the current administration, you would think it was light touch government, let capitalism do its thing for better and for worse. Yes, there are going to be casualties in that, but it's not for governments to intervene in a general basis. Obviously, COVID, an extreme example, and I think irrespective of who was in the Oval Office at that point or in Congress or Senate, you would have a similar set of circumstances and support package. But this is quite different. This is a part of the industry that is really particularly suffering because it's arguably more exposed. Do you really think there's any likelihood of those parties, if they have gone to DC today, to sort of get the begging bowl out and ask for some sort of support for them to get something? Sure. I mean, you asked me if there's a possibility. I mean, yeah, I think there have been many things that I wouldn't have thought probable that have in fact become reality. So, yeah. Would I be shocked if the president said tomorrow, okay, we're the 20% owner of Spirit Airlines. We just gave him a couple hundred million dollars. Would that shock you any more than some of the other things we've been seeing over the past few years? I don't know, not really. So, yeah, that is becomes, you know, one possible scenario, one possible path forward for Spirit Airlines. Another possible path, as I mentioned before, could be liquidation. Another possible path could be that another airline, hard to believe, you know, this would happen. But, you know, maybe an Allegiant says, OK, well, you know, we really want to beef up our presence in Florida. and we, you know, Fort Lauderdale in particular, add to our Orlando presence. We want, yeah, we can use a few more planes. The plane market is tight and, you know, hey, we'll grab some, we'll take those spare planes. We can use some more pilots. We can use, so, yeah, we'll, you know, we'll buy it on the cheap, of course, but we'll buy, who knows, that could, you could see something like that. And, of course, you know, the fourth and I guess, I don't know if this is the only other path, But one other avenue ahead is that they proceed with the original bankruptcy plan. The creditors say, okay, let's give it a chance. Yeah, fuel is high, but maybe it'll come down. And the assumptions. I saw, by the way, in the document that Meghna sent us, the assumption on fuel prices. So let me back up. when Spirit entered bankruptcy, they put together a turnaround plan. And the turnaround plan involves a lot of assumptions about revenues and costs. And I think what they were in a very broad sense trying to do is become like an Allegiant or a Sun Country type airline, which makes total sense. I mean, those are the two successful business models in the United States, low-cost business models in the United States. They've done relatively well over in the post-pandemic period. So why not try to copy them? Makes sense. Low aircraft utilization type model flying into heavy leisure destinations, et cetera, et cetera. So as they're putting together this plan, they have to make these assumptions. And one of the assumptions they have to make is how much is fuel going to cost because we want to, you know, kind of get a, give, give some kind of a forecast of how much money we're going to make as we, for sure, on here over the next three, you know, two, three, four or five years. And I do not have it in front of me, but the fuel cost assumption was very low. I thought it was, you know, two in the low twos per barrel, whereas, and it was lower than that they paid what they paid last year and much, much lower than what they're paying now. Obviously, they couldn't have predicted where fuel prices have currently landed. So you can see why creditors might be like, well, this business plan is based on $2.20 per gallon. Well, now we're paying $4.20 or whatever it is. It's not going to work. But it's still possible that they might give that a try. They might deem that turnaround plan better for their financial prospects from a creditor's perspective than a liquidation. For sure. For government bail, that would be nice. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, for sure. Yeah. You don't know exactly what the terms would be and everything. But that could be a bunch of possible paths. And the last thing I should say, I think this is a very important one, is that with all of this talk, you know, when the president of the United States goes on TV and answers questions about an airline that's, you know, in big trouble, it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. You know, are you really going to book a spirit ticket? I mean, I was just playing around on some, you know, online bookie sites. You know, their fares are quite a bit cheaper on a lot of itineraries than anyone else. I mean, hundreds of dollars cheaper in many circumstances, many examples. But are you really going to take that chance that they go out of business tomorrow? You'll get your, if you pay for a credit card, pay with a credit card, sorry, you'll get your money back, but you might not be able to get to where you want to go, or you might get stranded in Mexico or wherever they fly, Honduras. So it becomes, if people start getting scared to book them and then their cash drain gets even worse. So they're in a really, really tough situation here. I would be surprised if we didn't know what the next, if something, whether it be liquidation or any of those scenarios that I laid out, if we didn't know what those were within days, maybe weeks, but soon. But soon, yeah. There'll be some cynics listening to the show, Jay, who will say, of course, the government's not going to do anything because this business was in trouble way before the fuel price spike. this is just the latest additional headache for a company that was already in trouble and others who are saying well yeah no let the process work let the bankruptcy process push through and maybe maybe they might just be able to cling on to to something here we obviously don't have spirit with us to defend themselves but they do have a website spirit restructuring.com where they uh they do post updates information resources etc and as far as they're concerned from a consumer point of view, it's business as usual. So people should continue to be happy to book a Spirit flight. But of course, the consumer is king and they will vote with their feet. And like I said, when you've got the literal president of the United States discussing things on national television around a company's future, it is not great. And we should also say, of course, there's a human impact as well, not just to the travelers, but also to, as President Trump referenced, the 14,000 jobs there. So an unsettling time, I'm sure, for many of our listeners who work or are affiliated with Spirit. So keeping you all in our thoughts at this challenging time, no matter what the outcome may be, Jay. Just before we head into the break, there was another little tidbit from the CNBC Squawk Box interview, and that was with regards to United and American. And Trump has reset the start. He said, I don't mind mergers. I'd like someone to buy Spirit, for example. But he was much cooler on the prospect of United and American. He said here, quote, But American is doing fine and United is doing very well. I don't like having them merge. It's just like those aerospace and defense companies. We used to have hundreds of them. Now we have a very small number and then you get one bid and it makes them lazy. And then he went on to a bit of a tangent around aerospace and defense which we won go into this particular podcast but you can jump on the CNBC website if you want to hear the full interview there Jay But I thought it was interesting that the president sort of said, absolutely not. You know, that is not happening on my watch, United and American. Yeah, that's an important development. I mean, that's a meaning, that's a significant statement of his to say that, yeah, he's clearly opposed to it, you know, based on what he said this morning. So yeah, it's right to highlight the significance of that. Still plenty of room for JetBlue in United though. Yeah. They should have asked him about that. Well, I would have. I would have. 36 minutes with Donald Trump. If you want to come on the show, Mr. President, you're more than welcome. Yeah, you're welcome. Podcast at skiff.com. I get one of your teams to reach out. Anything you want to discuss before we head into the break, Jay? Oh, no. Let's talk Alaska. Let's talk Alaska. Okay. We will get straight back into part two. But before that, a quick reminder to send any questions or comments that you might have for us to podcasts at skiff.com, whether you're the president of the United States or Joe Public, we're very happy to hear from you. That's podcasts with an S at the end. And please don't forget to follow or subscribe to the podcast where you're listening or watching. And if you are enjoying the show, please rate us five stars or leave us a post to review so we can continue to spread the word about the airline weekly lounge. Don't go anywhere. We'll be talking Alaska Airlines right after this. Hello and welcome back to the airline weekly lounge. I'm Gordon Smith, joined as usual by co-host Jay Shabbat. Part one, we're discussing spirit and some very challenging circumstances for that particular carrier. Some challenging circumstances of a different sort for Alaska, Jay, because we've had Alaska Airlines, or I should say the Alaska Air Group, as they like to be known now, obviously with Hawaiian under their wing, publishing their Q1 financials in the past 24 hours here. We haven't had the earnings call yet with Ben and the team, but we have had the core numbers and the presentation. What was your top line take? I believe the earnings call actually just started. It's going on as we speak now. So we will be sure to listen to a recording and write up anything interesting that they say, highlight anything interesting that's said in our newsletter coming up on Monday. But they did, as you said, release their numbers last night, their first quarter financial results. So I was able to look through those numbers and the material that they attached to them. They provided some additional information, commentary on demand and whatnot. So I have a few things to say, even though the call is just starting now. So the most important takeaway is that Alaska had a pretty lousy first quarter. and right on gordon it's important to distinguish this is not we're not talking spirit here nobody's going out of business in seattle or anything it's just it was a bad quarter to borrow frontierism it's a whole different animal it's a whole different animal exactly it's a much healthier animal it's got yeah great balance sheet it's uh first quarters are always always weak for alaska even in a good year but in a good year for the you know they might make a little bit of money Maybe they'll lose a little bit of money. Negative 7.5% operating margin was what they did in this year's first quarter. So not good at all. They paid $2.98 per gallon for fuel last quarter. And remember, first quarter included just one month of the spike. So really, March was the only month where you had those really elevated rates. So they paid $2.98. Delta, which they reported a couple of weeks ago, as you know, they only pay $262, so $298 versus $262. That is a big gap. So what you're seeing in the airline industry, I mean, generally in the past, fuel prices didn't vary that much from airline to airline, particularly, I mean, the US especially, even across the world. I mean, obviously, there are definitely some countries, Brazil, for example, where the taxes are extraordinarily high on fuel and there's that. But in general, fuel is fuel and what it costs is what it costs. There's different refining stuff. But right now it's wildly different between different regions of the world. So in Singapore, for example, which used to be the cheapest place to buy jet fuel, now it's one of the most expensive. It's more than doubled. And Alaska, interestingly enough, what they would do is they'd actually They buy a lot of their jet fuel in Singapore and I believe just ship it over to Hawaii and use it for their Hawaiian operations. If anybody has any more detail or information on that, please feel free to reach out. I don't know what that operation entails, but I know they sourced a lot of fuel from Singapore, but that's really expensive. And then West Coast U.S. is very expensive too, just because of the refinery situation, pipeline situation. So that is one reason. I'll turn it back to you, Gordon, but that's just one reason why they had a rough first quarter. No, I really appreciate the insight, Jay. Just wanted to give our listeners and viewers a few of the numbers there, because I put them in front of me, just to support what you were saying around fuel. There's a nice big slide here. Fuel costs have risen sharply. Hell, that's an understatement if ever I heard one. But yeah, in the small printer here, it says the Alaska Air Group sources approximately 55, 5.5% of its fuel from the West Coast, around 20% from Singapore, and around 25% from various other regions, including the Gulf Coast. But it does note here that West Coast refining margins have been historically more volatile and among the highest globally. Singapore has typically been amongst the lowest cost source until recently surging over 400% since early February levels. So that little Singapore shortcut not looking quite so tasty. Yeah, it makes me kind of wonder what Singapore Airlines is seeing right now. We'll get their earnings in sometime in the next couple of weeks. But that's an aside. Back to Alaska. So that fuel cost obviously was their biggest concern. Their non-fuel costs are also on a unit level are also starting to be somewhat worrisome. The reason why non-fuel unit costs are going up, one reason, any important reason, is that, you know, I've said this on the podcast before. Gordon has written about it. I've written about it. So, you know, long time listener. Well, you'll know this, but worth repeating that a very important weapon that airlines use to lower their non-fuel unit cost is growth. You increase your capacity and you extract a lot of economies of scale. You fly the planes more, you fly the planes more, whatever. So that is getting hard to do when fuel is really, really expensive. You start getting more and more roots that become uneconomical. So you have to start trimming capacity, which is exactly what Alaska is doing now. So that puts a lot of pressure on their unit costs. You don't have that growth. I think they're going to grow maybe one or 2% in the second quarter. They actually suspended their financial guidance for sure, maybe their capacity guidance as well for the full year. So that basically just means, well, we have a big question mark in front of our eyes. Things are so volatile, we can't make any reliable forecasts anymore for beyond the next quarter. so yeah they are trimming their capacity as most airlines in the world are now doing uh their domestic or their north american capacity so i think that includes hawaii as well that is actually going to be shrinking in the second quarter and the only reason really why they're growing is because they have these new long haul routes i think you might have to help me out here gordon but i rome starting like within the next couple of days now maybe maybe even today this week. Yeah, Rome, London, and Iceland. And then London and Iceland are next. So that's going to add a lot of growth. That's obviously a lot of available seat miles because it's their long distance planes, their airplanes with a lot of seats. So that will help on the unit cost side, flying overseas. But what's it going to be on the revenue side? And that's kind of a big mystery. Now they said, and again, help me out here, Gordon, and interject if you have any exact commentary in front of you, but they basically said that international booking trends, so I think they talking about these Europe and Asia routes because they doing Tokyo and Seoul as well they already started those International booking trends are building in line with expectations That doesn sound too reassuring to me. I don't know. It depends what your expectation was. You could say it was lousy to begin with. Yeah. My expectations were that we were going to lose a ton of money on these routes. So being facetious, but yeah, it's true. Those are a little bit flags for me when I see those words in expectations or you know things are right along as we expected uh they also did say that was it tokyo that it made a profit yes i've got it here jay i can you got it here go i can turn it over you then okay i feel i feel like i don't have a baseball analogy i'm sorry it's not gonna make any sense but i was gonna say so throw me the ball i've got it uh maybe more of an american give me a scottish football analogy you got something you're crossing the ball to me and I'm knocking it into the goal. There you go. Here we go. Seattle to Narita profitable in March with the March load factor on Seattle to Narita and Seoul Inchon above 90%. So... Another group of words there that's not terribly reassuring. You know, profit in March. Okay, what does that mean? I mean, what exactly are you including in those profits? Is that an operating profit? Is the profit, you know, including all just cash costs? I mean, there's so many different ways you can calculate profits by allocating different costs, spreading different administrative costs across different routes, whatever. And so I don't mean to be down on... And same thing with the load factor, by the way. I mean, I could fill up a plane 100% very easily, just charge a nickel for every seat. Well, no problem is filling planes. So, um, but again, all I'm trying to say, I'm not trying to, uh, you know, hammer on Alaska here. All I'm trying to say is that, uh, we don't really have any good sense of how these new intercontinental, you know, oceanic trans oceanic roots, what will bear out. And they do carry a lot of risk. I mean, these are very competitive routes. They're routes that can make money, but they could also lose a lot of money. I mean, there's just a lot of, they're very high cost routes to fly a giant plane that long a distance. So Jerry is still out there, but risky. However, they did what is reassuring and what is totally credible and believable is that their corporate revenues seem to be extremely strong. And that's going to make sense. I mean, they are after all in Seattle. and I was looking this morning when they said that there's a publication called Business Travel News. I assume you're familiar with it, Gordon. They do a ranking of every year of the leading spenders on business travel, on air travel, different companies. And the number one company in the world based on total amounts spent on air travel is Amazon. I think it's fair to say that Amazon spends a lot of money with Alaska Airlines. I think we can say that. And then I saw Boeing is actually number eight on the list, another Seattle-based company. And it's interesting. I was looking at this and you can ring the tangent alarm. You can gong me off the show anytime you're up. Do you remember that? The gong show? This is way before your time, even before my time. I'll just do what they do at the Oscars. I'll just put the music up and fade you out. There you go. Yeah. Well, if I hear the music, I'll shut up. But for now, let me start i was a little tangent here no this this uh the beat the business travel news ranking is really cool because i was looking at is actually if you look at the top 20 or so spenders um three groups stand out one is the tech companies and you know makes sense these are just giant companies with giant profits and um so the tech companies just spend a ton a ton of money on travel uh another is the consultancies and you can some of them have accounting arms as well like you know Ernst & Young. Deloitte was actually number two. So the consultancies, the tech companies, and then a third group was aerospace companies, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin was on the list and RTX, which owns Pratt & Whitney, they were on the list. So those three groups, I never really realized that before, but they're just like super heavy in the top 10, 20. So yeah, and Alaska is just getting a lot of that business. They're also pretty big. They've scaled back in California, but they're still pretty big in San Francisco as well. So they're capturing a lot of that corporate travel there. So yeah, long-winded way of saying that Alaska's corporate business is really, really strong, it appears, and growing from what was maybe a dip last year. I think there was a lot of tariff uncertainty last year where even some of these big and powerful companies were not traveling as much, but that seems to be over now. They're traveling in large number. And then on top of that, they also said that the loyalty program is going very well. Big difference, by the way, between JetBlue and Alaska is Alaska has a very lucrative loyalty program. Don't think JetBlue quite packs that same punch. That's been a big disadvantage for them. They've been trying to address that. And this partnership with United is one example of how they are trying to address that. But Alaska does have that great, very lucrative partnership with Bank of America on their loyalty program. Obviously, having Hawaii in their portfolio now is very helpful for loyalty. So there you go. I mean, I said corporate was good. Loyalty is good. And then premium, you know, that's broken record time. Say it again. Play it again, Sam. I can hear the music coming up now. Okay. All right. None of those. my thank you speech is done your thank you speech is done I just was looking at some of the statements that we had from the Alaska Air Group and yeah they say the Atmos Rewards Program which is what they rebranded it as seeing quote incredible loyalty growth so make of that what you will we'll get some more detail and color in the earnings call later Jay and like we said at the start of the show much more detail in the airline weekly issue if you're not already a subscriber go to airlineweekly.com forward slash subscribe. And we are really getting into the thick of earnings season, at least from a US perspective now, Jay. We've got Southwest and American before the week is out. So a lot more detail, a lot more numbers to crunch before we get to the next issue. So look out for that on Monday. Anything to add before we wrap up? Yeah, I did neglect to say one thing that's probably important on the revenue side is that they did say that they are experiencing some challenges in Mexico because of some of the bad news headlines there in terms of civil unrest. And they are also experiencing some demand issues in Hawaii too, because of some natural, I don't know, natural disasters, right? Where, but they've had flooding, I think, and heavy rains that have deterred some travelers. So I think that's an important component of the demand situation as well. But that is all I've got on Alaska. Hopefully we'll get some more interesting insight as we listen to the replay of that call later today. And one thing I'll certainly be listening for is more clues on how those intercontinental flights are doing. I'm not sure how much they'll say, but there's that another important component of their network that they never really say too much about, but which is very important is their transcons, transcontinental routes between the East Coast and West Coast. They're pretty big in that. And that's a very competitive market with JetBlue, with American, with Delta, United. It's those big five players. How is the transcon market doing? So maybe we'll get some insight from that as well. We'll stay tuned. Thanks again for your insights, Jay, both on Spirit and on Alaska. And thanks as always to our producers, Sean, Monica, and Will, and wherever you are in the world. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. 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