Letters from an American

Administration Prosecutes Iran War Without a Plan

15 min
Mar 14, 2026about 1 month ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The Trump administration has launched military strikes against Iran without a clear strategic plan, lifting Russian oil sanctions amid the conflict while facing criticism from allies and domestic opponents. Defense Secretary Hegseth has cut civilian oversight by 75% and invoked war crimes rhetoric, while advisors warned Trump that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz—a consequence that has materialized and driven global oil prices up.

Insights
  • Military operations are proceeding without defined end-state objectives or congressional authorization, creating strategic ambiguity and domestic political vulnerability
  • The administration's sanctions relief for Russian oil appears to benefit Putin more than address the actual energy crisis, suggesting misaligned priorities or undisclosed motives
  • Diplomatic failures stem from inadequate technical expertise in negotiations, with Trump's envoy misunderstanding Iran's nuclear proposals and missing potential diplomatic openings
  • Cuts to civilian harm oversight mechanisms correlate with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, indicating systemic deprioritization of accountability
  • Vice President Vance's public distancing from the war suggests internal administration disagreement and potential political positioning ahead of future elections
Trends
Erosion of institutional checks on executive military authority without congressional oversight or public accountability mechanismsWeaponization of media criticism as justification for military escalation rather than strategic reassessmentDecoupling of military capability from political strategy, resulting in tactical victories without clear geopolitical objectivesSanctions policy subordinated to short-term commodity price management rather than long-term strategic alignment with alliesDismantling of internal military accountability structures during active conflict operationsRegional conflict expansion through unilateral executive action without advance diplomatic preparation or allied coordinationRhetoric escalation including war crimes declarations used in official military communicationsVice presidential distancing from executive military decisions as political risk mitigation strategy
Topics
Iran Military Strikes and Regional EscalationRussian Oil Sanctions ReliefStrait of Hormuz Closure and Energy MarketsCivilian Casualty Oversight CutsNuclear Diplomacy and JCPOAMilitary Authorization Without Congressional ApprovalDefense Secretary AccountabilityG7 Alliance Coordination BreakdownWar Crimes and Rules of EngagementPresidential War Powers and Constitutional LimitsOil Price Volatility and Global TradeUkraine Military CooperationPentagon Planning vs Political StrategyMedia Relations and Military CommunicationsVice Presidential Political Positioning
Companies
The New York Times
Reported on Ukraine sending drone experts to Jordan at U.S. request; criticized by Trump for coverage of Iran war
The Wall Street Journal
Reported on amphibious ready group deployment and Trump advisors' warnings about Strait of Hormuz closure
CNN
Reported that administration underestimated Iran's ability to close Strait of Hormuz; criticized by Defense Secretary
Fox Radio
Platform for Trump's phone call denying Ukraine drone assistance
Politico
Reported on Hegseth's cuts to civilian harm oversight and Vance's skepticism of Iran strikes
The Guardian
Published analysis from Brookings Institution on previous war gaming and JCPOA rationale
People
Donald Trump
Launched Iran military strikes without clear objectives, lifted Russian oil sanctions, denied Ukraine cooperation
Scott Besant
Justified lifting Russian oil sanctions as necessary to ease global oil prices
Pete Hegseth
Cut civilian harm oversight by 75%, invoked war crimes rhetoric, dismissed media criticism of war strategy
Friedrich Merz
Stated G7 leaders urged Trump not to ease Russian sanctions, questioned administration's motives
Angus King
Testified that Russia is clear winner of Iran war, earning $400 million daily from sanctions relief and oil prices
Volodymyr Zelensky
Confirmed Ukraine sent drone experts and interceptor drones to Jordan at U.S. request
Steve Whitcoff
Led nuclear negotiations with Iran; criticized for lacking technical expertise and misunderstanding Iranian proposals
Jared Kushner
Participated in nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva
Abbas Aragchi
Participated in nuclear negotiations with U.S. envoys in Geneva
Kelsey Davenport
Assessed that Whitcoff's lack of expertise led Trump to believe Iran negotiations were failing
Dan Cain
Warned Trump that Iran could close Strait of Hormuz if struck; warning was dismissed
J.D. Vance
Reportedly skeptical of Iran strikes and distancing himself from war politically
Philip Gordon
Explained that previous administrations gamed out Iran war and foresaw current consequences
Michael Rubin
Criticized lack of clear war objectives, stating military planning is stellar but politics is chaotic
Tim Kaine
Filed legislation requiring congressional approval for war against Cuba, criticized Trump's unilateral authority
Wes Bryant
Noted that reducing civilian casualties improves military effectiveness against actual enemies
Brian Finucan
Confirmed that denial of quarter is recognized war crime by U.S. government
Quotes
"there is a clear winner in this war, the clear winner is Vladimir Putin and Russia. Estimates released a few hours ago are that Russia has reaped $6 billion of benefit from this war since it began just two weeks ago."
Senator Angus King
"we don't need their help, we know more about drones than anybody, we have the best drones in the world actually."
President Donald Trump
"we are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically and otherwise. Iran's Navy is gone, their air force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated."
President Donald Trump
"step one of any plan is to establish a goal. The targeting should be in pursuit of that goal. The United States has this backwards. We have the targeting, but we don't have a clear goal."
Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute
"One of the reasons we did the nuclear deal and didn't try to change the regime is exactly what's happening. Iran would attack its neighbors to try to spark a regional war and would close the Strait of Hormuz."
Philip Gordon, Brookings Institution
Full Transcript
March 13, 2026 Despite reports that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence that permits it to target U.S. forces in the Middle East, late last night the Trump administration lifted sanctions on shipments of Russian oil until April 11, permitting it to be sold to buyers around the world for the next month. The U.S., along with the rest of the group of seven, or G7, nations with advanced economies, has maintained sanctions against Russia since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been eager to get those sanctions dropped because oil sales will help the flailing Russian economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant says the move is necessary to help ease oil prices, which are skyrocketing because Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attack by the U.S. and Israel. But German Chancellor Friedrich Meirz says the heads of the G7 had urged Trump not to ease the sanctions, saying, there is currently a price problem, but not a supply problem. He added that he would like to know what additional motives led the U.S. government to make this decision. After Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was already in ships, Democrats cried foul. At a Senate Armed Services Committee meeting yesterday, Senator Angus King, an independent of Maine, said, there is a clear winner in this war, the clear winner is Vladimir Putin and Russia. Estimates released a few hours ago are that Russia has reaped $6 billion of benefit from this war since it began just two weeks ago. That's about $400 million a day from the increase in oil prices and the easing of sanctions, which is somewhat puzzling to me. I just think the record should show that the real winner so far is Vladimir Putin, to the tune of $6 billion in two weeks. Meanwhile, Kim Barker of The New York Times reports that, at the request of the United States, Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to Jordan to protect U.S. military bases there. We reacted immediately, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky told Barker. I said, yes, of course we will send our experts. In a phone call to the Brian Kilmeade show on Fox Radio this morning, President Donald J. Trump denied that Ukraine was helping the U.S. with drone defense, saying, we don't need their help, we know more about drones than anybody, we have the best drones in the world actually. Six American service members are dead after a military refueling plane crashed in Iraq. U.S. Central Command has not specified the circumstances of the crash beyond saying it was not due to hostile or friendly fire. Laura Seligman of The Wall Street Journal reported today that Defense Secretary Pete Hagseth is sending an amphibious ready group of vessels led by the USS Tripoli and carrying about 5,000 Marines and sailors to the Middle East. This morning, Trump, who famously got five deferments to avoid the military draft, posted a picture of himself standing by his parents in his schoolboy military uniform. He captioned the photo, at Military Academy with my parents Fred and Mary. Last night, Trump posted on social media, we are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically and otherwise. Yet, if you read the failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. Iran's Navy is gone, their air force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition and plenty of time. Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They've been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years and now I as the 47th President of the United States of America am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump On Wednesday, Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association assessed that Trump's frustration with the talks between US Special Envoy Steve Whitcoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi in Geneva was fueled by Whitcoff's reports about those talks. But Davenport noted, Comments made by Whitcoff in two background briefings with reporters on February 28 and March 3, as well as media appearances since the strikes began, made clear that Whitcoff did not have sufficient technical expertise or diplomatic experience to engage in effective diplomacy. His lack of knowledge and mischaracterization of Iran's positions and nuclear program throughout the process likely informed Trump's assessment that talks were not progressing and Iran was not negotiating seriously. Having reviewed recordings and transcripts from those meetings, the Arms Control Association believes that the Iranian offer showed flexibility and was an opening offer and unlikely Iran's bottom line. Future negotiations might have revealed irreconcilable positions, Davenport wrote. But Whitcoff's failure to comprehend key technical realities suggests he misunderstood the Iranian nuclear proposal and was ill-prepared to negotiate an effective nuclear agreement. This morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spent significant time at a press briefing at the Defense Department complaining about headlines that say the war is widening and that the administration did not take seriously enough that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz. A patriotic press, he said, would say that Iran is weakening. Despite widespread reporting sourced from within the White House that the administration did not, in fact, accurately gauge the chances of Iran's closing the Strait, Hegseth said it was patently ridiculous to think the administration didn't prepare for the Strait to be closed. He said about CNN, which reported that story, the sooner right-wing Trump ally David Ellison takes over that network the better. Hegseth said the Strait of Hormuz is open. The only thing prohibiting transit in the Strait right now is Iran shooting at shipping, he said. It is open for transit should Iran not do that. Of the issue that the Iranians are shooting at the shipping, Hegseth said, we have been dealing with it and don't need to worry about it. He claimed that the Iranians can barely communicate let alone coordinate. They're confused and we know it. Our response, we will keep pressing, we will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies. As reporter Matt Novak notes, no quarter is the refusal to take prisoners and instead just execute everyone. It's been considered a war crime for over a century. Former government war crimes lawyer Brian Finucan agreed, noting that denial of quarter, even the declaration of no quarter is a war crime and recognized as such by the U.S. government. Jack Detch and Paul McCleary of Politico reported today that last year Hegseth slashed the oversight offices designed to limit civilian casualties in war and to investigate responsibility for them. Over the warnings of top military officials, he cut the number of employees working in that field from 200 to fewer than 40. Hegseth has vowed not to be hampered by stupid rules of engagement. But as Wes Bryant, the Pentagon's former chief of civilian harm assessments, told the journalists, as it turns out, when you kill less civilians, you tend to be putting your resources toward killing the enemy. Democrats in both the House and the Senate are demanding an investigation into the strikes on a girl school that killed at least 165 civilians, most of them children. Hegseth insisted today that the U.S. never targets civilians and notes that Iran does. Observers note that the U.S. military has targeted at least 40 small boats in the Caribbean, killing at least 157 people. It insists, without evidence, are narco terrorists. War, in this context, and in pursuit of peace, is necessary, Hegseth said, which is why each day, on bended knee, we continue to appeal to heaven, to Almighty God's providence, to watch over and give special skill and confidence to our leaders and to our warriors. To those warriors who this nation prays for every single day, I hear from all of you out there who pray for them every day. Stay on bended knee and pray for them. I continue to say to them, God's speed, may the Lord bless you and keep you and keep going. In today's phone call to the Brian Kilmeade show, Trump suggested the war will not continue for long and said, he will know it's over when I feel it, okay? Feel it in my bones. Tonight, Alexander Ward, Laura Seligman, Alex Leary, and Vera Bergengruen of the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump's advisors, including chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain, warned Trump that if the U.S. struck Iran, its leaders could well respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump said that Iran's leaders would capitulate, and that even if they tried to close the Strait, the U.S. military could handle it. The authors report that while Trump has told audiences that we've won the war in Iran, in fact he has no immediate plans to end the war. Philip Gordon of the Brookings Institution, who was formerly a national security advisor to Kamala Harris and the White House coordinator for the Middle East under President Barack Obama, told Andrew Roth of The Guardian that previous administrations had spent much time gaming out war with Iran and foresaw exactly what is happening. Iran would attack its neighbors to try to spark a regional war and would close the Strait of Hormuz to hurt global trade and drive up oil prices. One of the reasons we did the nuclear deal and didn't try to change the regime is exactly what's happening. He said of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Trump took the U.S. out of that treaty in 2018, undercutting it. Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the Center Right American Enterprise Institute, told Roth that while the military planning had been stellar, politically this is increasingly looking like a cluster f*****g. And the reason is that step one of any plan is to establish a goal. The targeting should be in pursuit of that goal. The United States has this backwards. We have the targeting, but we don't have a clear goal. And that lies not on the Pentagon planners, but on Donald Trump. White House officials are concerned enough about the unpopularity of the war that they are trying to change their messaging to convince the American people that the military is so powerful that it will eventually overcome Iran's ability to retaliate. Perhaps the clearest sign the administration is concerned about the Iran war is that Vance is distancing himself from it. A story by Diana Narazzi and Eli Stockels of Politico today claims that Vice President J.D. Vance was skeptical of the U.S. striking Iran in the lead up to President Donald Trump's decision to launch the war. Sources told the journalists that Vance is skeptical, worried about success, and just opposes the war. And yet, Trump has also been threatening a takeover of Cuba, prompting Senate Democrats yesterday to file legislation to stop him from going to war against Cuba without congressional approval. Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat of Virginia, said in a statement, only Congress has the power to declare war under the Constitution. But Trump operates with the belief that the U.S. military is a palace guard, ordering military action in the Caribbean, Venezuela, and Iran without Congress's authorization or any explanation for his actions to the American people. We shouldn't risk our sons and daughters' lives at the whims of any one person. Letters from an American was written and read by Heather Cox Richardson. It was produced at Soundscape Productions, dead in Massachusetts, recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.