Letters from an American

Launching an Ill-Thought-Out War

15 min
Mar 16, 20263 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

This episode analyzes the Trump administration's launch of war against Iran in March 2026, examining the lack of strategic planning, contradictory messaging about military success, and the administration's subsequent attacks on media outlets reporting on the conflict.

Insights
  • Military victory claims contradict operational reality: administration declares Iran's military 'totally destroyed' while simultaneously requesting international naval support and acknowledging ongoing Iranian drone and missile threats
  • Strategic planning failures exposed: U.S. rejected Ukrainian anti-drone technology months before conflict, then faced Iranian drone strikes on communications and defense systems
  • Economic interdependence undermines energy independence narrative: despite U.S. oil production exceeding consumption, refinery infrastructure and crude oil type mismatches force reliance on international markets and Persian Gulf supplies
  • Media suppression as crisis response: facing criticism over ill-conceived military strategy, administration pivots to attacking press credibility and threatening broadcast licenses rather than addressing operational failures
  • Alliance deterioration creates dependency: after year of antagonizing allies, Trump now demands international assistance while lacking credibility to secure commitments
Trends
State media establishment: FCC chair threatens broadcast licenses; PBS/NPR defunding; CBS ownership transfer to Trump ally; CNN ownership changes anticipatedExecutive overreach on press freedom: use of Signal messaging to hide records; threats to license renewals; characterization of journalism as 'treason'Strategic communication breakdown: contradictory public statements on military capability, Iranian intentions, and international commitments undermine credibilityGeopolitical realignment pressure: NATO allies questioned on commitment; international naval coalition formation uncertain despite public claims of commitmentsEnergy market volatility: Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens 20% of global oil supply; shipping companies report unmet escort requests despite administration promisesIntra-party conflict: isolationist MAGA faction opposes Iran war; Trump reasserts control over movement definitionInstitutional conflict: Supreme Court declares tariffs unconstitutional; administration blames justices for Biden inauguration rather than addressing rulingDisinformation attribution: administration blames Iranian AI for negative coverage while simultaneously spreading false claims about military success and election results
Topics
Iran-U.S. Military Conflict StrategyStrait of Hormuz Oil Supply DisruptionU.S. Oil Refinery Infrastructure LimitationsMedia License Threat and Press FreedomNATO Alliance Commitment and ReliabilityMilitary Victory Claims vs. Operational RealityInternational Naval Coalition FormationDrone Warfare and Defense SystemsEnergy Market Price VolatilityState Media DevelopmentPresidential Election Landslide ClaimsTariff Constitutional ChallengesPublic Records Law CircumventionIsolationist vs. Interventionist MAGA FactionsDisinformation and AI Attribution
Companies
New York Times
Reported on lack of strategic planning and Iranian military tactical adjustments; targeted by Trump for 'fake news' a...
Wall Street Journal
Reported on war coverage; specifically targeted by Trump for alleged bias against U.S. military success
Axios
Reported on rejected Ukrainian anti-drone technology offer and U.S. failure to pursue defensive capabilities
NBC News
Conducted Trump interview where he expressed surprise at Iranian retaliation and discussed Karg Island strikes
CNN
Reported shipping company escort requests being rebuffed; anticipated ownership change under Trump administration
CBS
Recently acquired by Trump ally David Ellison; cited as example of media 'reform' with new bias ombudsman
PBS
Targeted for defunding as part of Trump's media reshaping agenda
NPR
Targeted for defunding as part of Trump's media reshaping agenda
The Guardian
Quoted by Trump administration as supporting narrative that 'Trump is waging war against media and winning'
Financial Times
Published Trump interview warning NATO of 'very bad future' if allies don't help open Strait of Hormuz
People
Donald J. Trump
President; launched Iran war with minimal strategic planning; made contradictory claims about military success and Ir...
E.J. Dion
New York Times journalist; observed lack of serious thought in war planning from the beginning
Helene Cooper
New York Times reporter; reported on Iranian military tactical adjustments targeting U.S. communications systems
Eric Schmidt
New York Times reporter; reported on Iranian military tactical adjustments targeting U.S. communications systems
Mark Caputo
Axios reporter; reported on rejected Ukrainian anti-drone technology offer to U.S.
Barak Ravid
Axios reporter; reported on rejected Ukrainian anti-drone technology offer to U.S.
Colin Demerist
Axios reporter; reported on rejected Ukrainian anti-drone technology offer to U.S.
Anna Kelly
White House spokesperson; defended Defense Secretary and military planning against critical reporting
Pete Hegseth
Defense Secretary; credited by White House for planning all possible Iranian responses
Kristen Welker
NBC News reporter; conducted Trump interview on Iran war and international commitments
Alexander Marquez
NBC News reporter; conducted Trump interview on Iran war and international commitments
Abbas Aragchi
Iran's foreign minister; denied that Tehran requested negotiations or ceasefire
Mike Walts
U.S. Ambassador to UN; defended administration's war strategy on talk shows; previously added journalist to Signal app
Jeffrey Goldberg
Atlantic editor; added to Signal messaging app by Mike Walts to hide administration Houthi strike discussions
Jake Tapper
CNN host; questioned Mike Walts on whether countries committed to naval escorts or Trump merely hoping
Kevin Hassett
National Economic Council director; claimed U.S. economy won't be harmed by Iran actions due to oil production
Margaret Brennan
CBS Face the Nation host; interviewed Kevin Hassett on economic impact of Iran conflict
Jim Acosta
Former CNN journalist; noted administration attempting to establish state media while independent journalism persists
Brendan Carr
FCC Chair; threatened broadcast licenses of stations running 'hoaxes and news distortions'
David Ellison
Trump ally; new owner of CBS cited as example of media 'reform' under Trump administration
Quotes
"from the very beginning of this war, we got a sense that there wasn't a great deal of serious thought put into it by the President of the United States about how it might end, what our objectives were"
E.J. Dion (New York Times)Opening
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the armed forces did an incredible job planning for all possible responses by the Iranian regime, and the undisputed success of Operation Epic Fury speaks for itself"
Anna Kelly, White House SpokespersonMid-episode
"we will soon get the Hormuz Strait open, safe, and free. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of the water"
Donald J. Trump (social media post)Mid-episode
"Silencing critics is the refuge of those who know what they are doing is unpopular and unjustifiable"
Heather Cox Richardson (narrator)Late episode
"You could make the case that maybe we shouldn't even be there at all, because we don't need it. We have a lot of oil"
Donald J. Trump (Air Force One interview)Closing
Full Transcript
March 15, 2026. Today as the country enters its third week of war against Iran, President Donald J. Trump was on the golf course, illustrating the observation of journalist E.J. Dion in the New York Times that from the very beginning of this war, we got a sense that there wasn't a great deal of serious thought put into it by the President of the United States about how it might end, what our objectives were, what needed to be done to protect Americans who were in the Middle East, what might happen to oil in the Strait of Hormuz. Although the administration appears to be trying to convince Americans that the U.S. military's destruction of the Iranian military means the U.S. has won the war, Iranian leadership needed simply to continue in power to declare victory. Then, blocking the 20 percent of the world's oil that flows through the Strait of Hormuz would give them leverage over the war's outcome. On March 10, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmidt of the New York Times reported that senior defense officials told them the Iranian military is adjusting its tactics to strike at the communications and defense systems protecting U.S. troops. Those tactics include drone strikes. The same day, Mark Caputo, Barak Ravid, and Colin Demerist of Axios reported that Ukrainian officials had tried several months ago to sell the U.S. anti-drone technology for downing Iran-made drones as a sign of thanks for U.S. support and as a way to strengthen ties between the U.S. and Ukraine, but the U.S. did not pursue the offer. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly responded, This characterization made by these cowardly unnamed sources is not accurate and proves that they are simply outside looking in. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the armed forces did an incredible job planning for all possible responses by the Iranian regime, and the undisputed success of Operation Epic Fury speaks for itself. And yet, the fallout from the strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel appears to have caught the administration by surprise. Trump told Kristen Welker and Alexander Marquez of NBC News yesterday that he was surprised that Iran attacked other countries after the U.S. and Israeli strikes. He also said strikes on Saturday on Karg Island, which is about 15 miles off the Iranian coast and is home to Iran's primary oil export terminal, totally demolished most of the island, but that we may hit it a few more times just for fun. President Donald J. Trump posted on social media Saturday morning, many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending warships in conjunction with the United States of America to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100 percent of Iran's military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along or in this waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Despite what Trump claimed was the utter destruction of Iran's military, he asked other countries to contribute to the effort to reopen the Strait. Hopefully, China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K., and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait open, safe, and free. Since he took office more than a year ago, Trump has gone out of his way to antagonize our allies and partners, warning them that the United States will act alone, and working to undermine the international alliances the U.S. has shaped since World War II. Now, having sparked a regional war in the Middle East, after ignoring what virtually everyone said would be the result of attacking Iran a second time, Trump is begging other countries to come to his aid. In yesterday's NBC News interview, Trump told Welker and Marquez that several countries have committed to helping reopen the Strait, but he declined to name them. They've not only committed, but they think it's a great idea, he said. He also said that Iran wants to make a deal, but he has declined because the terms aren't good enough yet. Today, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Aragchi said Tehran had not even asked for negotiations, let alone a ceasefire. But the White House is in turmoil, showed this morning, first of all, in the fact that one of the people making the administration's case on the talk shows was U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Walts, the man who added Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg to the Signal Messaging app on which members of the administration were making plans to strike Houthi militants in Yemen, a chat that would hide administration discussions from the record keeping required by public records laws. On CNN's State of the Union this morning, over a Chiron that read, oil prices skyrocket as Iran throttles traffic in Strait of Hormuz, Jake Tapper noted that while the U.S. has said it would soon send naval escorts through the Strait, shipping executives have told CNN that all their requests for escorts have been rebuffed. Tapper asked Walts if Trump is simply hoping other countries will send naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz or if they had committed to it. Walts answered that we have the energy dominance in place, then noted that in the past other countries had worked alongside the U.S. to keep energy flowing through the Strait, and Trump is calling on the world to do the same thing again. Walts said, we certainly welcome, encourage, and even demand their participation to help their own economies. On Face the Nation, another odd salesperson for Trump's war, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told host Margaret Brennan that, you have to understand that America is not going to have its economy harmed by what the Iranians are doing. That implied that because the U.S. produces more oil now than it did in the 1970s, it doesn't really need oil from the Persian Gulf. The Iranians think that they're going to harm the U.S. economy and get President Trump to back down, he said. There couldn't be anything that was a stupider thing to say, because the bottom line is that our economy has got all this momentum in the world and we've got lots and lots of oil. The U.S. does indeed produce more oil and natural gas than it consumes, but it cannot use much of what it produces. The key is prices and refineries. The U.S. tends to produce light, sweet crude oil, a term for oil that flows easily and has low sulfur content. Because it is easy to refine and more valuable than heavy, sour crude, U.S. producers have an incentive to sell it on the open market. Even if they wanted to keep it at home, U.S. refineries are set up to refine the cheaper, heavy crude oil, so the U.S. does not have the refining capacity to process the oil it currently produces and must buy what it needs from elsewhere. This means the U.S. is inextricably tied to the international oil markets. The administration appears to be taking the position that the problem is not Trump's launching an ill-thought-out war, but rather the media outlets reporting on that war. Although Trump has been conversing freely with reporters by cell phone since the war broke out, yesterday morning he posted on social media, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal in particular and other low-life papers and media actually want us to lose the war. Their terrible reporting is the exact opposite of the actual facts. They are truly sick and demented people that have no idea the damage they caused the United States of America. Fortunately, as proven by our great and conclusive election win in 2024, the people of our country understand what is happening far better than the fake news media. Less than two hours later, Trump posted an image titled, President Trump is reshaping the media with three categories, gone, reforms, and winning. Under gone was the defunding of PBS and NPR, as well as a list of reporters who have been fired since Trump took office in 2025. Under reforms, the image claimed Trump was the most accessible POTUS ever, boasted that under CBS's new ownership by Trump ally David Ellison, the station has a news bias ombudsman and suggested that CNN would soon be under new ownership as well. Under winning was a quotation from The Guardian that, Trump is waging war against the media and winning. Hours later, Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr threatened the broadcast licenses of media stations. He quoted Trump when he posted, Broadcasters that are running hoaxes and news distortions, also known as the fake news, have a chance now to correct course before their license renewals come up. The law is clear. Broadcasters must operate in the public interest and they will lose their licenses if they do not. It is very important to bring trust back into media, which has earned itself the label of fake news. Then Carr slipped in his own fake news, suggesting that Trump won a landslide election victory, when in fact he received less than 50% of the vote and concluded, time for change. The framers of the US Constitution understood that a free press is imperative for a democracy. They established the right to a free press in the First Amendment that begins the Bill of Rights. Silencing critics is the refuge of those who know what they are doing is unpopular and unjustifiable. Jim Acosta, who left CNN, noted that while the administration is attempting to establish state media, the American people increasingly have the option of reading independent journalism. Yes, Acosta wrote, Trump put me on his media hit list. I regret to report to the notoriously thin-skinned, twice-elected yet soon-to-be thrice impeached president that I am still here, loving the freedom of independent media. Using rent-free in the mind of the president of the United States is indeed liberating, especially when you are coloring outside the lines of corporate media. Yesterday evening, the official White House social media account on X tried to reassure Americans that Trump knows what he's doing. It posted an image of the American flag over a stealth bomber with the words, peace through strength and no panicans. And yet, in what seemed to be panicked comments tonight, Trump on social media appeared to take on the rift showing up among the MAGA leaders over the Iran War, saying of isolationist America First magas, they are not MAGA, I am. And MAGA includes not allowing Iran, a sick, demented and violent terrorist regime, to have a nuclear weapon to blow up the United States of America, the Middle East, and ultimately the rest of the world. Another post blamed Iranian AI and disinformation for stories that he said are fake, and in a certain way, you can say those media outlets that generated it should be brought up on charges for treason for the dissemination of false information. He reiterated support for Carr's attack on the media and insisted he won the presidential election in a landslide. In yet another post, the president's account attacked the US Supreme Court for declaring his tariffs unconstitutional, then blamed the justices for ruining the nation by permitting Democrat Joe Biden to be inaugurated, rather than call out the rigged presidential election of 2020. In an interview with Financial Times published this evening, Trump warned that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, would have a very bad future if allies don't help open the Strait of Hormuz. And tonight, on Air Force One, Trump told reporters, really, I'm demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their territory. It's the place from which they get their energy, and they should come and they should help us protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn't even be there at all, because we don't need it. We have a lot of oil. Letters from an American was written and read by Heather Cox Richardson. It was produced at Soundscape Productions, dead in Massachusetts, recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.