Charles Payne's Unstoppable Prosperity Podcast

Charles’ Take: AI Sentiment & The 40% Rule

4 min
May 6, 202628 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Charles Payne and Kingsview Wealth Management partner Mario Venerosa discuss an investment formula centered on the "40% Rule"—requiring 40% top-line growth, 40% bottom-line growth, and 40%+ margins—while analyzing how AI sentiment is bifurcating the market into winners and losers. They evaluate specific stocks like Amazon, Palantir, and Oklo through this lens, emphasizing that strong guidance and innovation matter, but negative sector sentiment can undermine even solid fundamentals.

Insights
  • The market is increasingly bifurcated between AI-enabled companies (haves) and those without AI capabilities (have-nots), making sector sentiment a critical investment factor
  • The 40% Rule combines aggressive growth targets with margin discipline; companies meeting these thresholds with raised guidance outperform regardless of stock price movements
  • Software companies are currently undervalued and trading poorly despite strong fundamentals, creating potential opportunities for patient investors who follow the investment recipe
  • Amazon's logistics expansion into third-party services could reshape competitive dynamics in the $180B+ logistics market, despite FedEx and UPS's current revenue dominance
  • Profit-taking on high-momentum stocks (like Oklo) is a disciplined strategy; long-term conviction doesn't require full position retention at all times
Trends
AI sentiment driving market bifurcation between AI-enabled and non-AI companiesSoftware sector undervaluation despite strong operational metricsInfrastructure spending acceleration tied to AI deployment and logistics modernizationGovernment contract growth outpacing commercial growth in defense/intelligence softwareMargin expansion becoming as important as revenue growth in investment thesis validationLogistics market consolidation risk from Amazon's vertical integration strategyGuidance raises losing impact when sector sentiment turns negativeCommercial business growth acceleration in AI-adjacent sectors (133% growth cited)
Companies
Amazon
Praised for AI infrastructure spending, logistics expansion, and strong guidance; up 30% in recent period with potent...
Palantir
Government business up 84%, commercial business up 133% with strong guidance, but trading poorly due to negative soft...
Oklo
Nuclear energy stock that spiked from $100 to $170 in October; speaker took profits and maintains small position desp...
FedEx
Stock hammered by Amazon's logistics announcement; generates $90B annual revenue but faces competitive threat from Am...
UPS
Generates $90B annual revenue; faces similar competitive pressure from Amazon's expansion into third-party logistics ...
People
Mario Venerosa
Guest discussing investment formula combining growth, innovation, and guidance; introduces the 40% Rule framework
Charles Payne
Podcast host engaging Mario Venerosa on investment strategy and stock analysis
Andy Jassy
Quoted as saying AI will be the biggest technology revolution in our lifetime; Amazon expanding into logistics
Quotes
"I call it the 40-40 rule. And I'm not talking about Jay-Z's club in Midtown either. I'm talking 40% top-line growth. You want 40% bottom-line growth."
Mario Venerosa
"This market is a very bifurcated market. It comes down to two things. It's the do's and don'ts. It's the haves with AI and the have-nots."
Mario Venerosa
"AI is gonna be the biggest technology revolution in our lifetime, and they're getting into the logistics business."
Charles Payne (referencing Andy Jassy)
"Software companies right now trading in the market are like dogs with fleas. Nobody wants to touch them."
Mario Venerosa
"FedEx does $90 billion a year. UPS does $90 billion. I don't know if there's a $180 billion market plus, and there's only one type of vans I see in my neighborhood on the weekends. It's blue and blue. It's Amazon."
Mario Venerosa
Full Transcript
I'm going to share with us right now. I'm going to bring a Kingsview partner, Wealth Management Mario Venerosa. Let's talk about your formula, Mario. So the magic ingredients are growth, innovation, and guidance. Absolutely. So these are the components of Cousin Mario's secret sauce right here. You want strong growth. At the end of the day, I call it the 40-40 rule. And I'm not talking about Jay-Z's club in Midtown either. I'm talking 40% top-line growth. You want 40% bottom-line growth. And the other thing, too, and this will be a little component of the secret sauce, you also want margins to be high, too, 40% above. But if you have growth, innovation, and forward guidance that's raised, those are all nice ingredients. A lot of companies that stocks are down today that raise their guidance. Is there a certain level of guidance that you've got to raise it? So this market is a very bifurcated market. It comes down to two things. It's the do's and don'ts. It's the haves with AI and the have-nots. And if sentiment is negative in your sector with AI right now, it's like going against the tide. You're not going very far. Amazon is a name that you've liked before. In fact, we're up like 60% of some of the time. You still love it. Yeah, absolutely. Infrastructure spending, supply chain, the business, there's a high guy. So you would still be a buyer here. Yeah, so I was here a month ago saying buy Amazon. It was under $215. The stock went up 30%, and they're going to eat everyone's lunch. Andy Jassy yesterday said AI is gonna be the biggest technology revolution in our lifetime, and they're getting into the logistics business. I still like Amazon, higher growth ahead. Palantir is a name that you like. Yep. I'm in Palantir, I'm not doing great. Yep And if you look at it I mean it just it seems like they doing right Government business up 84 percent commercial business up 133 percent The guidance was strong What happening This is exactly what I just said It sentiment So if you look at Palantir, it's a software company. Software companies right now trading in the market are like dogs with fleas. Nobody wants to touch them. But if you're patient and you're a smart investor and you follow the recipe, I believe Palantir could have better days ahead. You also like, we're going to bring this up here. One thing I wanted to ask you about Amazon, circling back to it for a moment. They had this announcement yesterday about logistics. They started doing their own logistics. Now they're offering it to anyone. And that crushed a lot of stocks. FedEx stocks got hammered yesterday, a lot of the old stocks. But this tiny portion, is that enough to really move the needle? That is a wonderful question. Comes down to one thing, money, Charles, revenue. FedEx does $90 billion a year. UPS does $90 billion. I don't know if there's a $180 billion market plus, and there's only one type of vans I see in my neighborhood on the weekends. It's blue and blue. It's Amazon. They're going to be a great logistics company, and I think that could be a proponent going forward. Real quick before I let you go, you like Oclo? Yep. We're down on it, my friend. We are. Are we buying this bad boy here or what? So a few things happened. So I was looking at this at year end, made a big run up. I took some profits along the way. Right down here, right here, made that spike. Yep, absolutely. So it went back in October, it went from about 100 to 170. But look, at the end of the day, you've got to take some profits along the way. I think long term, this could be a good play. So you're not in it right now? I still have some small positions in it. Okay, good stuff. Okay, great seeing you. You too, my man. I want some candy too. You're looking great. Yeah, we've got to go there, man. Yeah, let's go.